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Post by hawkeye on Wed 11 Jan 2012, 9:48 pm

On many betting sites Nadal is the 4th favourite for the title in Australia.

This (presumably) is based on the shoulder problems that prevented him from practise, that he has said he is taking february off, that he was beaten by Djokovic 6 times in 2011 and that somehow he has lost the "gleam" in his eyes.

Well from what I've seen and read the shoulder problem is now ok (although admitidly he didn't get the practise he wanted). He took February off last year and that did him no harm (whats he missing anyway Rotterdam?). He was beaten by Djokovic 6 times but that didn't prevent him getting to the final or winning in the last three slams (beating Federer once and Murray three times. Both players who are ranked higher). In fact Nadals record in slams when not injured is more impressive than any other player. As far as the "gleam" in his eyes goes He sounded plaesed with his performance after his last match in Doha.

Nadal has had two dissapointing performances at the Australian Open. The slightly slower hardcourts in Australia are said to suit him better than in New York so maybe he's due for a good run. I don't bet myself but at these favourable prices for anyone that does IMO it might be worth a flutter...

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Post by Guest on Wed 11 Jan 2012, 9:55 pm

Some interesting odds being offered.

Top 4 Seeds Make Semi Finals = 7/2
Top American = Mardy Fish = 7/4

That is worth a £10 double at least, returns £113

Make it a treble with Nole to win at 7/5 and you get £287

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Post by Tenez on Wed 11 Jan 2012, 10:36 pm

Y I Man wrote:Some interesting odds being offered.

Top 4 Seeds Make Semi Finals = 7/2
Top American = Mardy Fish = 7/4

That is worth a £10 double at least, returns £113

Make it a treble with Nole to win at 7/5 and you get £287

I bet you will lose your money on the first line (4 seeds/semi).

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Post by Henman Bill on Thu 12 Jan 2012, 4:06 am

I would have Nadal at second favourite myself but he does need someone else to take out Djokovic. I don't think Nadal is in the form to really beat him.

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Post by kaeru on Thu 12 Jan 2012, 8:42 am

If the back is fine, it will be Fed over Murray in five sets.

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Post by gallery play on Thu 12 Jan 2012, 11:25 am

My betting advice would be: don't believe anything Nadal says, especially not prior a GS. The betting offices are not as stupid to do so, they're obviously taking the previous 2 years into account.

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Post by Tenez on Thu 12 Jan 2012, 11:39 am

Yep - Don;t believe Federer either if he says he is fine.


2 complete different approaches to injuries. One loves to be in the challenger skin, the other does his best to hide his weaknesses.

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Post by prostaff85 on Thu 12 Jan 2012, 11:49 am

... so only if Nadal says he's fine and Federer says he's not 100%, we can be sure they're both talking the truth!

But if it's vice versa - which is probably the case - we actually can't draw any conclusions.
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Post by Tenez on Thu 12 Jan 2012, 12:00 pm

prostaff85 wrote:... so only if Nadal says he's fine and Federer says he's not 100%, we can be sure they're both talking the truth!

But if it's vice versa - which is probably the case - we actually can't draw any conclusions.

We can! Nadla is perfectly fine...until he loses! That we are sure about! Wink

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Post by hawkeye on Thu 12 Jan 2012, 12:01 pm

gallery play. I think you will find that the "betting offices" are not always right...

Tenez. I agee Federer and Nadal have a different way of dealing with injuries. Federer is more old school, stiff upper lip, don't show your weakness it will give your your opponant an advantage. Nadal is more new man, this is how I feel so I will talk about it.

Maybe on this occasion Nadal's approach has meant a bet on him could get an unusually good return?

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Post by hawkeye on Thu 12 Jan 2012, 12:04 pm

Tenez wrote:
prostaff85 wrote:... so only if Nadal says he's fine and Federer says he's not 100%, we can be sure they're both talking the truth!

But if it's vice versa - which is probably the case - we actually can't draw any conclusions.

We can! Nadla is perfectly fine...until he loses! That we are sure about! Wink

Ha ha! Tell me do you think they are attractive odds for Nadal? And what about Federer. Is he covering up something about his back? Should his odds be longer?

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Post by djlovesyou on Thu 12 Jan 2012, 1:17 pm

Do people realise that the odds are not a reflection on the opinion of some bloke in an office, they're the result of the volume of bets by punters.

Nadal is 4th favourite because punters are backing the other three in higher amounts.

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Post by Tenez on Thu 12 Jan 2012, 1:26 pm

djlovesyou wrote:Do people realise that the odds are not a reflection on the opinion of some bloke in an office, they're the result of the volume of bets by punters.

Nadal is 4th favourite because punters are backing the other three in higher amounts.

It's a bit of both...isn't it? Betfair for instance is probably solely based on punters' bets (in that case betfair is guaranteed to make money on teh commission), while WilliamHill and Ladbroke for instance have got specialists providing an initial quote which I guess gets altered by the number of bets. The latter involves a risk.

I remember when Dettori won his amazing 7 races, the bookies lost money cause they got their initial quotes wrong.

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Post by hawkeye on Thu 12 Jan 2012, 3:54 pm

djlovesyou wrote:Do people realise that the odds are not a reflection on the opinion of some bloke in an office, they're the result of the volume of bets by punters.

Nadal is 4th favourite because punters are backing the other three in higher amounts.

I know! But I think thats made Nadal a good bet if you look at his past performances. Too many I think are being swayed by speculative talk about him "losing the gleam in his eyes".

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Post by Tenez on Thu 12 Jan 2012, 5:20 pm

Nadal must have read this thread. he now says he is perfect for the game, contradicting what he said 2 days ago.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/tennis/16530740.stm


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Post by djlovesyou on Thu 12 Jan 2012, 7:29 pm

hawkeye wrote:

I know! But I think thats made Nadal a good bet if you look at his past performances. Too many I think are being swayed by speculative talk about him "losing the gleam in his eyes".

Bet on him then.

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Post by Calder106 on Thu 12 Jan 2012, 8:47 pm

Depending on how the draw works out Tsonga 16/1 each way (has to reach final but you get 8/1 if he loses in it) may be a worthwhile bet.

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Post by Henman Bill on Fri 13 Jan 2012, 2:59 am

I think Federer is very straightforward about most things, so I don't see why he would conceal injuries. He certainly didn't conceal his injuries at Doha. The fact of the matter is he has less injuries than Nadal because of his better scheduled management/less physically demanding game/luck.

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Post by erictheblueuk on Fri 13 Jan 2012, 1:39 pm

Calder106 wrote:Depending on how the draw works out Tsonga 16/1 each way (has to reach final but you get 8/1 if he loses in it) may be a worthwhile bet.

He's gonna need help cause I can't see him beating Murray and Novak in back to back matches.
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Post by Tenez on Fri 13 Jan 2012, 1:50 pm

Henman Bill wrote:I think Federer is very straightforward about most things, so I don't see why he would conceal injuries. He certainly didn't conceal his injuries at Doha. The fact of the matter is he has less injuries than Nadal because of his better scheduled management/less physically demanding game/luck.

He has concealed themas much as he could. He coudl not conceal Doha cause he pulled out. But he did not mention his back until he had to. Interesting to see also that despite struggling v Seppi and also in teh previous round, he did not take a MTO.

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Post by Calder106 on Fri 13 Jan 2012, 1:52 pm

erictheblueuk wrote:
Calder106 wrote:Depending on how the draw works out Tsonga 16/1 each way (has to reach final but you get 8/1 if he loses in it) may be a worthwhile bet.

He's gonna need help cause I can't see him beating Murray and Novak in back to back matches.

That's why I said depending on the draw. Doesn't look so good now.

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