HEC: Jeff teams this time around

What would be a realistic expectation?

Quite frankly I'd predict a puncture* in the Irish bubble.
* OK if no-one else fesses up, I'll take the rap.

But I'd imagine about Three French Q finalists, Three English, And one each from Ireland and Wales.

Starred are my qualifiers:
Pool 1 Edinburgh Munster Racing Métro Saracens*
Pool 2 Treviso Tigers* Ospreys Toulouse*
Pool 3 Biarritz Connacht Harlequins* Zebre
Pool 4 Castres Glasgow Northampton* Ulster
Pool 5 Clermont* Exeter Leinster* Scarlets
Pool 6 Cardiff* Montpellier Sale Toulon

Portnoy who are your predictions then?

I think Quins are a virtual guarantee.

Tough for Saracens,Saints,Tigers and Sale.

Virtually no chance for Exeter - sorry guys.

I would say for a first up prediction

1. Quins
2.Leinster
3.Toulon
4.Tigers
5.Ulster
6.Saracens
7.Clermont (best runners up)
8.Biarritz (best runners up)

3 English,3 French,2 Irish.

Quarter finals

Quins vs Biarritz - 1 vs 8 - Quins

Leinster vs Clermont - 2 vs 7 - Leinster

Toulon vs Saracens - 3 v 6 - Saracens

Tigers vs Ulster - 4 vs 5 - Tigers

Very optimistic I know but who knows?

Have to say cut and paste error went on. Semis' Jeff finalist options should be
Semis : 2
Semis : 1

As it's multi vote, zero is unnecessary.

I'd be extremely happy if it ended up like that Beshocked. I'd love Leicester to finish that high in their group and then take Ulster to Welford Rd for a bit of revenge. Just not that confident in the Tigers away form, we just aren't nasty enough in defence at the moment which means we concede some soft points. Hopefully the return of Crane and Deacon along with the maturing of the likes of Mafi, Kitchener and Slater will help that. The attack is good, especially now Harrison and Ford are emerging nicely.

Pool 1 Edinburgh Munster Racing Métro Saracens
Pool 2 Treviso Tigers Ospreys Toulouse
Pool 3 Biarritz Connacht Harlequins Zebre
Pool 4 Castres Glasgow Northampton Ulster
Pool 5 Clermont Exeter Leinster Scarlets
Pool 6 Cardiff Montpellier Sale Toulon

(bold group winners, italics 2nd place in group)

I can not see any of the Quins as out right group winners, however I would expect Tigers, Saries and Saints to all push their group leaders right to the wire, and maybe one sneak in as second place side.

beshocked wrote:Portnoy who are your predictions then?

I think Quins are a virtual guarantee.

Tough for Saracens,Saints,Tigers and Sale.

Virtually no chance for Exeter - sorry guys.

I would say for a first up prediction

1. Quins
2.Leinster
3.Toulon
4.Tigers
5.Ulster
6.Saracens
7.Clermont (best runners up)
8.Biarritz (best runners up)

3 English,3 French,2 Irish.

Quarter finals

Quins vs Biarritz - 1 vs 8 - Quins

Leinster vs Clermont - 2 vs 7 - Leinster

Toulon vs Saracens - 3 v 6 - Saracens

Tigers vs Ulster - 4 vs 5 - Tigers

Very optimistic I know but who knows?

I'd love it if that's how they did turn out Beshocked.

Toulon v Sarries could be a very good game or a complete dull fest but i'd agree you guys should win it.

Just as long as Leinster lose I don't mind too much who wins.

formerly known as Sam wrote:I'd be extremely happy if it ended up like that Beshocked. I'd love Leicester to finish that high in their group and then take Ulster to Welford Rd for a bit of revenge. Just not that confident in the Tigers away form, we just aren't nasty enough in defence at the moment which means we concede some soft points. Hopefully the return of Crane and Deacon along with the maturing of the likes of Mafi, Kitchener and Slater will help that. The attack is good, especially now Harrison and Ford are emerging nicely.

Sam you mentioning those names reminded me, did you ever manage to play Flood, Croft, Cole, Crane, Youngs etc in the same match last season? I don't think anyone can know how good Tigers will be as we haven't seen a full Tigers side put out for over a season.

Portnoy I am surprised you don't think best runner up will be from Quin's group.

Sam of course it's optimistic. I think there's a lot of close calls.

I think the most clear is that Quins will qualify, Leinster and Clermont should too.

Pool 1 in my opinion is a toss up between Munster and Saracens though Edinburgh and Racing Metro could play decisive roles in who tops the pool.

Pool 2 Tigers to just about edge through. Contraversial but I can see them running riot against the O's at WR for a bonus point, 2 5 pointers against Treviso.

Pool 3 Harlequins at a canter. Biarritz to get best runners up in my opinion.

Pool 4 Ulster very close with Saints for top spot. Ulster to edge it.

Pool 5 Leinster and Clermont should run riot. Leinster to top courtesy of more bonus points.

Pool 6 Toulon to come of age in my opinion and take their pool by storm.

Sam you mentioning those names reminded me, did you ever manage to play Flood, Croft, Cole, Crane, Youngs etc in the same match last season? I don't think anyone can know how good Tigers will be as we haven't seen a full Tigers side put out for over a season.

Oh that is so true Yappy, we missed Crane and Deacon desperately against your boys in the final as they add so much leadership to the pack as well as their massive workrate and grunt. Youngs and Ayerza will be missing from the start of the next campaign as it is already and with Newby having another knee op (on his other knee) I don't think we'll see him for the first month.

The team we want to be playing / team available from the start NY.

1.Ayerza / Mulipola
2.T Youngs
3.Cole
4.Deacon
5.Parling
6.Croft / Mafi
7.Salvi
8.Crane / Waldrom (Crane will take a couple of games to get back into it after a year on the sidelines)
9.Youngs / Harrison
10.Flood
11.Benjamin
12.Allen
13.Manu
14.Thompstone
15.Murphy

yappysnap wrote:

beshocked wrote:Portnoy who are your predictions then?

I think Quins are a virtual guarantee.

Tough for Saracens,Saints,Tigers and Sale.

Virtually no chance for Exeter - sorry guys.

I would say for a first up prediction

1. Quins
2.Leinster
3.Toulon
4.Tigers
5.Ulster
6.Saracens
7.Clermont (best runners up)
8.Biarritz (best runners up)

3 English,3 French,2 Irish.

Quarter finals

Quins vs Biarritz - 1 vs 8 - Quins

Leinster vs Clermont - 2 vs 7 - Leinster

Toulon vs Saracens - 3 v 6 - Saracens

Tigers vs Ulster - 4 vs 5 - Tigers

Very optimistic I know but who knows?

I'd love it if that's how they did turn out Beshocked.

Toulon v Sarries could be a very good game or a complete dull fest but i'd agree you guys should win it.

Just as long as Leinster lose I don't mind too much who wins.

It's tough at the top

Saints, baby.
All the way.............

Aye, it can be Mickado. Just have to make sure you face an English team in the final so you actually have to work for the title...

Take it as a compliment! it was meant as one in a backhanded, under the table, never admit it and call you cheats way.

yappysnap wrote:Take it as a compliment! it was meant as one in a backhanded, under the table, never admit it and call you cheats way.

That's the nicest type of compliment a rugby fan can recieve!

My tuppence worth:

Starred are my qualifiers:
Pool 1 Edinburgh Munster Racing Métro Saracens*
Pool 2 Treviso Tigers Ospreys* Toulouse*
Pool 3 Biarritz* Connacht Harlequins* Zebre
Pool 4 Castres Glasgow Northampton Ulster*
Pool 5 Clermont Exeter Leinster* Scarlets
Pool 6 Cardiff Montpellier Sale Toulon *

1. Ospreys
2. Harlequins
3. Leinster
4. Saracens
5. Ulster
6. Touon
7. Biarritz
8. Toulouse

Ospreys v Toulouse
Harlequins v Biarritz
Leinster v Toulon
Saracens v Ulster

Ospreys v Harlequins
Leinster v Ulster

Leinster v Harlequins

Leinster champs.

Chalk it down lads, I dreamed about it last week.

You really think Ospreys are going to be top seeds?

gowales wrote:You really think Ospreys are going to be number one seeds?

I really do.

I personally think we'd do well to even get out of the group

I’m just getting off the fence really, it would be too easy to say that their group “could go either/any way”. I think the team that comes out of that group will be top seeds, someone is going to win 5 or 6 games, it’s just as likely to be Tigers or Toulouse (I don’t hold out much hope for the Zebra’s ) but I’ve a sneaky feeling it could be the O’s.

Mickado wrote:I’m just getting off the fence really, it would be too easy to say that their group “could go either/any way”. I think the team that comes out of that group will be top seeds, someone is going to win 5 or 6 games, it’s just as likely to be Tigers or Toulouse (I don’t hold out much hope for the Zebra’s ) but I’ve a sneaky feeling it could be the O’s.

Just thinking a Tiger is a type of cat, and Ospreys is a type of bird, Zebras are a type of horse (kinda), what animal is a Toulouse?

Mick if we rock up to play Zebre we'll be in trouble as it's Treviso in the Tigers/Ospreys/Tolouse group. I reckon it's going to be pretty tight in that group. Could well be decided by bonus points (which is where Tigers blew it last season) as I expect everyone to beat the Italians and the other three to win their own home games.

Oh yeah... Hmm Treviso are a decent team. Still, i've made my prediction, I'll stick with it just out of pigheaded stubborness more than anything else...

Mickado some very interesting predictions.

Particularly Ospreys not just to top their pool but to be 1st seed. You should put some money on that.

Treviso were not an easy task at home in the HC.

beshocked wrote:Mickado some very interesting predictions.

Particularly Ospreys not just to top their pool but to be 1st seed. You should put some money on that.

Treviso were not an easy task at home in the HC.

They're a decent side, but they actually won more games on the road than they did at home in the league last season. Statsman.

To be honest I think that It is to tight to call in most groups.

What I see is possibly Tiger, saints and Sarries/Munster droping down to the Amlins so I expect the Amlin final to be between Saints/Sarries and Tigers (depending on draw and dropping down)

Would tigers fans settle for the Amlin or going out in the quarter. You can't beat a good day out.

I can't see the tigers group being one of the best runner-ups. I thing the group will be decieded by lbp and results against Treviso. 3rd place will lose to Treviso in Italy

Quins in theory should get through, Saints have a chance but I dont think they are very strong this year.
Tigers have a very tough task, capable but two strong teams makes it hard.
Saracens grouo is wide open, no easy points make a high scoring second place hard to come by
Exeter no chance
Sale probably the weakest team in their group although theyve recruited well. Could pull a surprise but unlikely.

The Jeff will do well to supply more than 2 quarter finalists. if they dont get 1 then Quins need shooting, even if they lose to Biaritz there should be enough easy points from connacht and zebra to get a best of the rest spot.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:Quins in theory should get through, Saints have a chance but I dont think they are very strong this year.
Tigers have a very tough task, capable but two strong teams makes it hard.
Saracens grouo is wide open, no easy points make a high scoring second place hard to come by
Exeter no chance
Sale probably the weakest team in their group although theyve recruited well. Could pull a surprise but unlikely.

The Jeff will do well to supply more than 2 quarter finalists. if they dont get 1 then Quins need shooting, even if they lose to Biaritz there should be enough easy points from connacht and zebra to get a best of the rest spot.

I think Quins were relying on easy points from Connacht last year, how did that work out for them?

I think Quins were relying on easy points from Connacht last year, how did that work out for them?

5 points over the two games Mickado. Connacht were somewhat fortunate in the home leg because a) the weather was horrendus and that stopped the Quins attack dead in it's tracks and b) the ref was extremely patient with the continual penalties conceded by Connacht out of range of the posts know full well that the lineout was the only option and that it was a lottery in the conditions. There should have been at least on yc.

Connacht are certainly no walkovers though, they don't have much in terms of attack but they'll defend like their lives depend on it and with Dan Parks signing on they'll have someone to keep the scoreboard moving (even if it is only in increments of 3 points).

Saracens are a team I don't know whether to fear or dismiss from a Munster point of view.

I feel that their nomadic approach to a home venue may dilute home support and play into the Munster ex-pat community in the same way that Saints did for us last season.

They have a pretty serious team right through and I don't see any real weaknesses but the way they simply fell apart against Clermont was just astounding.

I would worry about Sarries, I would be reasonably confident of dealing with Racing Metro and Edinburgh. If we end up playing Sarries in Boston, I imagine we would have better support, but it will have to be played in the first few rounds. Goin to Boston in December or Januray would be insane! The South Africans will be frozen!

Staggy a lot will depend on whether Sarries have their talismanic backrow available. The 'wolf pack' mentality with Brown and Burger making crushing hits all over the field will make a huge difference to Sarries play. Sarries last year took on Clermont with a couple of recent academy graduates on the flank and got taken to the cleaners at the breakdown and set pieces. The scrum will still be a big iffy unless this new Italian prop is the bee knees but Burger will add another very good lineout jumper.

I think Munster need to be wary of Sarries.

I think we probably do as well, is my gut reaction Sam.

It pains me to say it but teams don't fear Thomond Park any more. We went from 1995 to 2007 without losing a single European match there. In the last 15 months both Harlequins and Ulster beat us in the European Cup.

Our backrow hinges on the success of two 22 year old players - CJ Stander and Peter O'Mahony. Similarly the new coaches and our new look centres could be just what we need to take our game to next level but equally it could go horribly wrong.

I feel we are as likely to win 6 out of 6 as we are to crash out in the pool stages with three defeats.

Sam very true I hear that Burger will be out till Feb. Brown should be back soon though - might miss the first game or two. I think the young guys who deputised will have more experience now though.

In regards to the scrum I want to see whether Vunipola and Saunders can make an impact at loose head. At tight head if the new Italian guy and whether Stevens can rediscover some scrummaging ability.

Red Stag I would say Saracens had a similar season to Munster - looked good in the HC till the quarter finals. Losing in playoff semi.

There's a fair few names in the Saracens squad you would likely recognise.

If you want I can give you more information on the squad.

Could you and Thomond tell me a bit about the Munster squad?

Beshocked,

Munster will be a very new look team new season in some regards. Both Denis Leamy and David Wallace have retired. Lifeimi Mafi and Tomas O'Leary have left Munster and we have brought in Casey Laulala (Cardiff), James Downey (Saints) and CJ Stander (Blue Bulls).

The likely Munster team is going to be:

01 Wian du Preez
02 Mike Sherry
03 BJ Botha
04 Donnacha Ryan
05 Paul O'Connell
06 Peter O'Mahony
07 CJ Stander
08 James Coughlan
09 Conor Murray
10 Ronan O'Gara
11 Keith Earls
12 James Downey
13 Casey Laulala
14 Doug Howlett
15 Felix Jones

16 Damien Varley
17 Marcus Horan
18 Stephen Archer
19 Donnacha O'Callaghan
20 Niall Ronan
21 Peter Stringer
22 JJ Hanrahan
23 Simon Zebo

We do have quite good depth with what I consider to be good backups at hooker (Varley), lock (O'Callaghan), scrumhalf (Stringer), winger (Zebo, Johne Murphy) and fullback (Hurley).

Young rising star JJ Hanrahan is a wildcard. He is a 19 year old flyhalf/centre who was nominated for IRB young player of the year. I personally would throw him straight into the Munster team in the league and see how he does. I think he is a better option at #22 as he covers 10 and 12. I have a feeling he will get that spot over Ian Keatley.

We have no depth whatsoever at prop. If there is an injury to our centres we would see Keith Earls play at centre with Zebo coming onto the wing.

Our backrow is very inexperienced and is something of a worry. This is where you must attack Munster. We have 8 backrows (excluding academy players). Between the 8 players the average age is just 24 years old and 6 of them are uncapped. Peter O'Mahony is the pick of our backrows but is very raw. Just 22 years old and 7 caps to his name. Our other internationall capped backrow has just 4 caps. I fear they may struggle in tougher games and had hoped for an experienced backrow.

I have no idea how we will play as we have got a new head coach and a new backs coach. However its likely our "Munster team" mentality will remain with forwards coach and former captain Anthony Foley staying on.

I've had a look at Sarries. I'm guessing:

01 Rhys Gill
02 Schalk Brits
03 Matt Stevens
04 Steve Borthwick
05 Mouritz Botha
06 Kelly Brown
07 Jacques Burger
08 Ernst Joubert
09 Richard Wiggleworth
10 Charlie Hodgson
11 David Strettle
12 Bradley Barritt
13 Owen Farrell
14 Chris Ashton
15 Alex Goode

Stag, if we're going to go 6 games without a right wing I think we will lose all of them

<edit>

red_stag wrote:I've had a look at Sarries. I'm guessing:

01 Rhys Gill
02 Schalk Brits
03 Matt Stevens
04 Steve Borthwick
05 Mouritz Botha
06 Kelly Brown
07 Jacques Burger
08 Ernst Joubert
09 Richard Wiggleworth
10 Charlie Hodgson
11 David Strettle
12 Bradley Barritt
13 Owen Farrell
14 Chris Ashton
15 Alex Goode

Well Jacques Burger is out till next (calendar) year, so he might not play against Munster at all.

Personally I'd like to see Sarries mix up that backline a touch:

9.de Kock
11.Short
12.Barritt
13.Tomkins
14.Ashton
15.Goode

That would give the team a much better attack and defensive aspect. I'm hoping young Ben Spencer will kick on for them as well as he seems a very good technical scrum half who just needs a little more confidence in attack which should come with more experience.

No Burger until Feb is a crushing blow for Sarries. I'd rate him as one of the top 10 flankers in the NH and his influence was telling when they won the AP. Will the other openside (can't remember his name) be fit, Beshocked?

Wow that long Mick? I suppose Saull slots in so. I hear a lot about him but have never seen the bloke.

I think this year that alot of groups might come down to the winner being who ever wins that one away game munster's group I think could not have anyone elimated until the send last round results with three still in the running on the last day. will make for some big final weekend

Will be interesting to see how the fast Metro and edinburgh do against the more organised and slow building sarries and munster.

red_stag wrote:Wow that long Mick? I suppose Saull slots in so. I hear a lot about him but have never seen the bloke.

Saull is a good player, one of the few Sarries that came out of the drubbing at the RDS with any credit.

Well see Brendan thats the thing we don't know Munster will be slow building. We have some very very young backrows (O'Mahony 22, Stander 22, O'Callaghan 22, O'Donnell 24, Dougall 22, Butler 21), a direct running 12, a centre who is known for creativity and a back three with lots of flair.

We could see a much more open Munster this year. Its very tough to tell.

We also have a realtively average out half who I don't think I would start...

Thomond wrote:We also have a realtively average out half who I don't think I would start...

Yea I agree. I have Hanrahan down as #22 but honestly if he started I wouldn't bat an eyelid with ROG there to come off the bench if a game needs closing out.

I don't think Quins will go further then the quarter finals Tbh. Although we have the right mentality and a top notch first team our strength in depth is very poor.

This season will be massive for COS as he has to build on the success of last season while juggling a very small squad and balancing the int call ups with expected success in Europe and in the Prem.

And still if we lose Kohn or Evans were fooked.

red stag thanks for the information on your team.

Does sound like the backrow is the area to attack.

Kelly Brown and Andy Saull's return to the side should bolster our backrow options if they are fit on the day.

Yappysnap surely it isn't all doom and gloom? Surely someone will step out of Evan's shadow.

If the pool stages go as I suspect you'll likely be playing Biarritz in the quarter final - 1vs8.

yappysnap wrote:I don't think Quins will go further then the quarter finals Tbh. Although we have the right mentality and a top notch first team our strength in depth is very poor.

This season will be massive for COS as he has to build on the success of last season while juggling a very small squad and balancing the int call ups with expected success in Europe and in the Prem.

And still if we lose Kohn or Evans were fooked.

I was thinking much the same Yappy. We've got a big target on us this year and lack of second row depth is a worry. More international call ups with Marler now making the bench at least and starting at best (not moaning, this is a good thing), and Brown gone on top of last years call ups. Could be interesting to see who steps up and shines though.

I think COS will bypass HEC and focus on AP defense. Dump us out in the quarters by putting out the 'A' team to be run over. I could be completely wrong though

AlastairW why would you want to be dumped out in the HC quarter finals? Trust me it's not a nice feeling. Though being hammered when you put out the strongest side you can field is worse.

Why hasn't Conor O Shea done more on the recruitment front if you feel you are a bit light? Is he relying on the academy to plug the gaps?

beshocked wrote:AlastairW why would you want to be dumped out in the HC quarter finals? Trust me it's not a nice feeling. Though being hammered when you put out the strongest side you can field is worse.

Why hasn't Conor O Shea done more on the recruitment front if you feel you are a bit light? Is he relying on the academy to plug the gaps?

That's completely it.

For a while now we've relied on Championship and academy playerd mixed with a few high calibre signings (Evans, Fa'Asavalu). This season though we've just focussed on academy players and Champ players.

Mainly it's about the money but also the ethos that O'Shea is building within the team and the academy as a whole.

Hopefully it'll bear fruit in a couple of seasons time, but next season could be a bit early.

Botica and Clegg could both potentially cover well for Evans but I have reservations about them at the moment.

As to cover for Kohn... let's hope he doesn't get injured.

It's pretty hard to judge- in certain areas we have ok depth- the front row looks inexperienced but we have good options and we were inexperienced last year anyway. The back row should be solid, though anyone would miss Mo, Robshaw or Easter at Club level. We have a good back up 9, options in the centre and in the back 3, though we'll miss Brown. As you say SR and 10'are the issues but we can always hope Clegg gets back on track an this year Matthews will be fit an we can see what he can do as back up SR