The v2 Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Names, numbers and Nole

+12
barrystar
Born Slippy
HM Murdock
invisiblecoolers
Josiah Maiestas
User 774433
banbrotam
hawkeye
laverfan
JuliusHMarx
socal1976
summerblues
16 posters

Page 1 of 3 1, 2, 3  Next

Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Names, numbers and Nole

Post by summerblues Sun 12 Aug 2012, 6:39 pm

LF: I am moving our discussion here.

summerblues

Posts : 4551
Join date : 2012-03-07

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by summerblues Sun 12 Aug 2012, 6:41 pm

laverfan wrote:King = ATP Council
Tribe B = Djokovic
Tribe A = Federer …..
……he is not given his 'due'.
This is the type of comment that led me to remark on people defending the integrity of draws for “ideological” rather than logical reasons. I am trying to show why looking at random draws via names is no worse than looking at the numbers drawn. The correctness of my argument has nothing to do with Federer or Djokovic, or tennis for that matter. It is purely a mathematical/statistical argument. Bringing Djokovic back into it does nothing for the merit of the argument.

laverfan wrote:Is this a contradiction or are you trying to simplify the explanation?
Neither. Those two statements belong very much together within the same line of reasoning. They sort of combine like this:

The collection looks arbitrary if you think of it in terms of numbers but not if you look at it in terms of names. Since it is entirely irrelevant whether the drawing is done on numbers or names, this is equally interesting. Pattern in terms of names is just as relevant as a pattern in terms of numbers would be.


laverfan wrote:A very convenient 2-tribe example, like the 4/6 slam analogy to fit a theory. Please do this example with 4 tribes
I do not see why I should do it with 4 tribes, for two reasons:

First, tennis SF draws are mathematically equivalent to the two tribe example.

Second, there is no need to keep it close to the tennis analogy (in fact, with all the emotional baggage that seems to come with the tennis discussion it may be preferable to keep the example away from tennis). An argument was made that since the numbers are drawn, the name patterns do not matter. In this example I am trying to illustrate why that argument is incorrect.

Also, I do not at all comprehend what you mean by this being “a convenient example to fit a theory”. I have no theory on tennis draws. All I am saying is that name patterns matter even if it is the numbers that are being drawn.

summerblues

Posts : 4551
Join date : 2012-03-07

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by summerblues Sun 12 Aug 2012, 6:45 pm

...and here I address a couple of items that are not directly relevant to the names vs numbers discussion but that did come up in the context of the same debate:

laverfan wrote:Can I ask you to take a look at this? - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19099777
Indeed. This is one of the reasons why we have to be careful interpreting probability. If people buy say 100 million lottery tickets you would expect one of them to win even if the chance is 1-in-100 million. Same would go for say 100 trillion tickets each with a chance in 1-in-100 trillion. In spite of that, if we just take one stab at something and we come up with the outcome that has a very low probability, we question it. It could be that we just happened to “draw the one lucky ticket” so to spreak and we will never know. We never get 100% certainty but – frankly – there are very few facets in life where we have the luxury of actually having 100% certainty when making our decisions.

In any event, this has no bearing on the “names vs numbers” in draws discussion.


laverfan wrote:Hardness of the draw is again arbitrary.
Yes, but in some sense that does not matter. If say some tennis fan somewhere in California said: “this is all rigged, just wait and see, over the next 3 years Nole will draw #3 seed in every tournament he plays” and if that then indeed happened, it would be suspect even if it turned out that the draws - even with #3 seeds – were not hard. That is the nature of random draws – if they are random we would not expect to find any recognizable pattern.

Once again, I left it off the “main” post as this does not touch upon the “names vs numbers” topic.

summerblues

Posts : 4551
Join date : 2012-03-07

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by socal1976 Sun 12 Aug 2012, 6:55 pm

Excellent post again by summerblues, and I commend you as IMBL as a non-djoko fan who is actually addressing the evidence and charges without an ideological bent to at least ask the questions and say that we have some smoke here.

I will add this to summerblues mathmatical analysis. In a tour where the top 3 or 4 guys are worlds better and more consistent than the pack does it really matter if Roger is seeded 1, 2, 3 or 4? Or for that what Nadal or Djoko are seeded? Of course not these guys have been switching the top 3 rankings between them for years now. It is the matchup and not the seeding that determines how tough it is. For example, Roger while 1 would still not be favored over a healthy nadal in the majority of their matchups. The top 4 guys are so close that it is the surface, conditions, and matchup that determine how difficult or easy their semi draw will be. Roger doesn't become easier for Novak if he is ranked #3 or 2 or 1. Just like Nadal when he plays federer isn't thinking wow I am up against it I am playing the world #1, he thinks well I have done this before and I got the beating of him whatever his ranking is. In short it is the man that determines the matchup not the ranking. At least when you are talking about a big 4 that is head shoulders better than the rest of the field. Numbers divorced from the real world factors of matchups and financial interests can only paint part of the picture.

And of course it is practically irrelevant what the seedings are among the top 4 guys, it is the players that make the matchup harder or easier not whether they have a 1, 2, or 3 in front of their name. Do you think Rafa is more frightened to play fed on clay if he is ranked 1 or #3, he thinks about the matchup and the conditions not the number next to Roger's name.

socal1976

Posts : 14212
Join date : 2011-03-18
Location : southern california

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by socal1976 Sun 12 Aug 2012, 7:08 pm

Here is another mathematical reason why the seedings are completely irrelevant to this discussion. Over the last 5 years Novak, Nadal, and Roger have pretty much played musical chairs with the top 3 seeds for the last 5 years. Regardless of whether Novak is ranked 1,2 or 3 since Fed this whole time has also been ranked in the top 3 it makes no difference what seeding Novak or Roger have they should have NO MORE than a 50 percent chance to be drawn in the same half. This holds true whether Novak is 1 and Roger is 3, or whether Novak is 3 and Roger is 1. Or in fact if Novak is 2 and Roger is number 3. The only scenario that this 50/50 ratio doesn't hold is when Novak is 1 and Rog is 2 or vice versa, however we have only had one slam in recent years that this has been the case, wimbeldon this year.

socal1976

Posts : 14212
Join date : 2011-03-18
Location : southern california

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by JuliusHMarx Sun 12 Aug 2012, 8:25 pm

From the other thread :-

socal1976 wrote:I don't care Julius people can say whatever they like it is my personal valuation of a player.

That's my point - it's your personal evaluation, which you're entitled to. There's no reason to expect anyone else to share it, nor should you be surprised or upset if they don't.

socal1976 wrote:If you can find me a similar type of discrimination anywhere for a big champion in tennis by the powers at be then I will happily add a mulitiplier in my personal view of his grandslam success, but you won't.

Again, that's an assumption of discrimination, without evidence to back it up. It might be enough evidence for you, but I would suggest you're biased towards Djoko.

socal1976 wrote:There is way too much smoke here for me to simply stick my head in the sand

The inference there is that those who don't agree are sticking their head in the sand - which is the argument of every conspiracy theorist from JFK to the Moon landings to Princess Di to 'silent suspensions' in tennis.

Clearly you believe that the ITF/ATP are one of the most corrupt governing bodies in sport and that no-one has the ability or desire to expose this.



JuliusHMarx
julius
julius

Posts : 22332
Join date : 2011-07-01
Location : Paisley Park

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by JuliusHMarx Sun 12 Aug 2012, 8:28 pm

I should also add, once again, that the draw of the top 4 seeds is usually done by one of the top players, in front of an audience. I clearly remember reading that both Fed and Rafa in the past have drawn the balls out of the hat, and I assume Djoko will also have had a go - are all three of those in on the plot?

JuliusHMarx
julius
julius

Posts : 22332
Join date : 2011-07-01
Location : Paisley Park

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by laverfan Sun 12 Aug 2012, 8:36 pm

summerblues wrote:That is the nature of random draws – if they are random we would not expect to find any recognizable pattern.

1,2,3,4 are fixed. By definition, when 1 and 2 are fixed, the two remaining patterns (1-3, 2-4 or 1-4, 2-3) will always repeat, whether it is McEnroe-Connors, Lendl-Becker, Federer-Djokovic or Nadal-Murray. Do you agree?

summerblues wrote:This is the type of comment that led me to remark on people defending the integrity of draws for “ideological” rather than logical reasons. I am trying to show why looking at random draws via names is no worse than looking at the numbers drawn.

You seem to confuse the SF patterns with the overall draw, very similar to SoCal's ESPN study argument vs the SF draw. Why? My example of different names while 1-3,2-4 vs 1-4,2-3 should lend credence to that argument, correct?

summerblues wrote:Pattern in terms of names is just as relevant as a pattern in terms of numbers would be.

See my example. where names change, while numbers do not and never will unless we switch entirely to a RR system.


socal1976 wrote:Here is another mathematical reason why the seedings are completely irrelevant to this discussion. Over the last 5 years Novak, Nadal, and Roger have pretty much played musical chairs with the top 3 seeds for the last 5 years. Regardless of whether Novak is ranked 1,2 or 3 since Fed this whole time has also been ranked in the top 3 it makes no difference what seeding Novak or Roger have they should have NO MORE than a 50 percent chance to be drawn in the same half. This holds true whether Novak is 1 and Roger is 3, or whether Novak is 3 and Roger is 1. Or in fact if Novak is 2 and Roger is number 3. The only scenario that this 50/50 ratio doesn't hold is when Novak is 1 and Rog is 2 or vice versa, however we have only had one slam in recent years that this has been the case, wimbeldon this year.

By the same argument, because the Top 4 have stayed consistent, I expect patterns to emerge which repeat. So i expect 1-3 (Federer-Djokovic or reverse) and 1-4 (Djokovic-Federer or reverse) expect to repeat.

Federer was not #1 prior to W 2012. Djokovic was #1, Federer was #3 and jumped to #1. AO 2012, Federer played Nadal as 2-3 pattern.

Why is this unexpected, and, more importantly, why is there an allegation of manipulation?

Murray has been #4 since 2008. whenever Federer-Djokovic are drawn, since that 2008 window, it would have been Nadal-Murray. Nadal-Murray have played 11 SFs. Federer-Djokovic have played 17 SFs. Djokovic became #4 in June 2007, Murray became #4 in Sep 2008, which is a differential of almost one year, which results in an additional 6 SFs due to Djokovic playing an extra 52+ weeks in Top 4. Again, I ask, why this allegation of draw manipulation at the SF level?



laverfan
Moderator
Moderator

Posts : 11252
Join date : 2011-04-07
Location : NoVA, USoA

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by socal1976 Sun 12 Aug 2012, 8:43 pm

Please Laverfan, at least be reasonable in your analogies. What does the JFK assassination have to do with Novak 5 times in a row in one season when 3 of the top 4 show up of getting the other big 4 guy in the semi? I don't need a magic bullet theory the numbers are what they are. You choose to analyze it through a prism that cuts the most slack and maintains and unbelievably high standard of proof just to suscpicious and to investigate the matter and possibly reform. There is no way for me to prove draw rigging, I am not investigative body, I do not have subpoena power, manpower or the time or desire to get the type of proof you require. Therefore you set the bar too high for what I am calling for. I am calling for a real look at the numbers over the last 5 years and a tightening up and oversight of the draw process. For that I do not need videotaped evidence of the draw committee smoking cigars in back rooms and chuckling it up about throwing the draw one way or the other.

When you have odd numbers, the precise longshot that favors the financial interests of those making the draw coming in, I am sorry, I don't just rely on the honor system. That in my mind is naive to the point of madness. Self policing didn't work for the financial system and it doesn't work in the real world 99 percent of the time when the only check on it is the honor system. I mean would you simply allow the players to sign an affidavit that they aren't doping and never be tested? I mean if the honor system is good enough for the tournament organizers why not for the players? I mean the people who make up these draws aren't even held to that standard.

socal1976

Posts : 14212
Join date : 2011-03-18
Location : southern california

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by socal1976 Sun 12 Aug 2012, 8:46 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:I should also add, once again, that the draw of the top 4 seeds is usually done by one of the top players, in front of an audience. I clearly remember reading that both Fed and Rafa in the past have drawn the balls out of the hat, and I assume Djoko will also have had a go - are all three of those in on the plot?

Yes, Rafa and Roger drawing balls out of jar or sealed envelopes would preclude tampering on any level with the draws, I mean it really is like Rafa or Roger making the draw because they showed them on tv opening envelopes.

socal1976

Posts : 14212
Join date : 2011-03-18
Location : southern california

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by JuliusHMarx Sun 12 Aug 2012, 8:55 pm

socal, I think you're reply is to me, rather than LF, as I was the one who categorised this together with various other conspiracy theories. If, as you say, my (or anyone's) unwillingness to believe this conspiracy is verging on madness, then perhaps I should leave you to your hyperbole (or my insanity, depending how you look at it). I do find it interesting that you think I am on the point of madness.

I wish I could find my post from a while back, conveniently ignored at the time, that showed 16 slams in a row (2008-2011), where a random draw would have placed Djoko and Fed in the same half 8 times out of 16 - fair enough, except it would also have placed the 1 and 3 seeds together 15 out of 16 times - would that have a cause for investigation, or just the luck of he draw?


JuliusHMarx
julius
julius

Posts : 22332
Join date : 2011-07-01
Location : Paisley Park

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by laverfan Sun 12 Aug 2012, 10:12 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
I wish I could find my post from a while back, conveniently ignored at the time, that showed 16 slams in a row (2008-2011), where a random draw would have placed Djoko and Fed in the same half 8 times out of 16 - fair enough, except it would also have placed the 1 and 3 seeds together 15 out of 16 times - would that have a cause for investigation, or just the luck of he draw?

This is what you are referring to JHM.

https://www.606v2.com/t31347-draw-fixing-hypothesis-at-grand-slams-2008-2012#1331924

laverfan
Moderator
Moderator

Posts : 11252
Join date : 2011-04-07
Location : NoVA, USoA

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by laverfan Mon 13 Aug 2012, 12:25 am

I need some help in verifying this table. This is based on Djokovic's Playing activity from 2007-2010. It does look at when Federer withdrew as well by looking at individual draws.

The (o) indicates that Federer and Djokovic were in opposite halves, which I want someone else (other than me) to sample and verify.

If I have not made any errors in reviewing draws, then, irrespective of rankings beginning 2007 Hamburg (when Djokovic came into Top 4), the same vs opposite halves is 24/19 24/20 (almost hindsight Laugh) .


Tournament2007200820092010
Australian OpenFederer 1, Djokovic 14Federer 1, Djokovic 3Federer 2, Djokovic 3 (Roddick)Federer 1, Djokovic 3 (Tsonga)
DubaiFederer 1, Djokovic 7Federer 1, Djokovic 3 (Roddick)No FedererNo Federer
Indian WellsFederer 1, Djokovic 12Federer 1(Fish), Djokovic 3Federer 2, (o) Djokovic 3 (Roddick)Federer 1 (Baghdatis), Djokovic 2 (Ljubicic)
MiamiFederer 1, Djokovic 10Federer 1, Djokovic 3 (Anderson)Federer 2 (Djokovic), Djokovic 3 (Murray)Federer 1 (Berdych), (o) Djokovic 2 (Rochus)
Monte CarloFederer 1, Djokovic 6Federer 1, Djokovic 3Federer 2 (Wawrinka), Djokovic 3 No Federer
RomeFederer 1, Djokovic 5 (Nadal)Federer 1(Stepanek), Djokovic 3Federer 2 (Djokovic), Djokovic 3Federer 1 (Gulbis), (o) Djokovic 2 (Verdasco)
Hamburg Federer 1, Djokovic 4 (Moya)Federer 1, (o) Djokovic 3 (Nadal)
RGFederer 1, Djokovic 6 (Nadal)Federer 1, (o) Djokovic 3 (Nadal)Federer 2, Djokovic 4 (Kohlschreiber)Federer 1 (Soderling), (o) Djokovic 3 (Melzer)
WimbledonFederer 1, Djokovic 4 (Nadal)Federer 1, Djokovic 3 (Safin)Federer 2, Djokovic 4 (Haas)Federer 1 (Berdych), Djokovic 3 (Berdych)
CanadaFederer 1, (o) Djokovic 3Federer 1 (Simon), (o) Djokovic 3Federer 1, (o) Djokovic 4 (Roddick)Federer 3, Djokovic 2 (Federer)
CincinnatiFederer 1, Djokovic 4 (Moya)Federer 1 (Karlovic), (o) Djokovic (3)Federer 1, (o) Djokovic 4 (Federer)Federer 3, (o) Djokovic 2 (Roddick)
USOFederer 1, (o) Djokovic 3Federer 2, Djokovic 3Federer 1, Djokovic 4 (Federer)Federer 2 (Djokovic), Djokovic 3 (Nadal)
MadridFederer 1, (o) Djokovic 3 (Nalbandian)Federer 2, (o) Djokovic 3 (Karlovic)Federer 2, (o) Djokovic 4 (Nadal)No Djokovic
ShanghaiNo FedererFederer 3, Djokovic 2 (Federer)
BaselFederer 3 (Djokovic), (o) Djokovic 3Federer 2, (o) Djokovic 3 (Federer)
ParisFederer 1 (Monfils), (o) Djokovic 3Federer 2, (o) Djokovic 3 (Llodra)
RotterdamNo Federer
Opposite Halves3566
Same Halves4866

PS: Please also check that I have not missed any tournaments. Wink

PPS: I will look at 2011 and 2012 tonight.

Update 1: Missed Madrid 2009, 2010.


Last edited by laverfan on Mon 13 Aug 2012, 10:52 am; edited 2 times in total

laverfan
Moderator
Moderator

Posts : 11252
Join date : 2011-04-07
Location : NoVA, USoA

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by summerblues Mon 13 Aug 2012, 3:02 am

laverfan wrote:1,2,3,4 are fixed. By definition, when 1 and 2 are fixed, the two remaining patterns (1-3, 2-4 or 1-4, 2-3) will always repeat, whether it is McEnroe-Connors, Lendl-Becker, Federer-Djokovic or Nadal-Murray. Do you agree?
.
.
.
You seem to confuse the SF patterns with the overall draw, very similar to SoCal's ESPN study argument vs the SF draw. Why? My example of different names while 1-3,2-4 vs 1-4,2-3 should lend credence to that argument, correct?
.
.
.
See my example. where names change, while numbers do not and never will unless we switch entirely to a RR system.
I just do not understand what you are saying in any of this. Here is a random example: in the first bit you mention "two remaining patterns". I see no two "remaining" patterns, I only see two to start with. You either have 1-3,2-4 or 1-4,2-3. Mathematically this is much like either drawing 1 or 2 from a hat (you could think of "1-3,2-4" as corresponding to say 1, and "1-4,2-3" as corresponding to 2).

When I talk about "patterns", I mean patterns in terms of repeating draws. So, say a pattern in terms of "numbers" would be:

1-3,2,4
1-3,2-4
1-3,2-4
1-3,2-4
1-3,2-4

which is much like drawing five straight ones from a hat.

A pattern in terms of "names" would be for example:

Nole-Federer, someone else-someone else
Nole-Federer, someone else-someone else
Nole-Federer, someone else-someone else
Nole-Federer, someone else-someone else
Nole-Federer, someone else-someone else


Whether the "number" pattern happens or the "name" pattern happens is equally "interesting".

Anyway, I am not even sure we are talking about the same thing, I literally have no clue what you are trying to say in these three paragraphs.

By the way, in my two tribe example, would your answer be (a) or (b)? Also, please do not relate it to tennis. My tribe example I think is sufficiently self-contained that the question would be meaningful even if I showed it to someone who had never heard of our draw debates or about tennis.

summerblues

Posts : 4551
Join date : 2012-03-07

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by summerblues Mon 13 Aug 2012, 3:11 am

laverfan wrote:If I have not made any errors in reviewing draws, then, irrespective of rankings beginning 2007 Hamburg (when Djokovic came into Top 4), the same vs opposite halves is 24/19 (almost hindsight Laugh) .
Thanks, this one I agree is interesting and to the point. Indeed, this type of analysis could be used to dispel concerns about draw rigging. Thanks for all the effort. I am not going to try to independently verify the data simply because I am ultimately not all that interested in the actual guts of the debate. As I said yesterday, even if the draws had been rigged I would not feel Nole would have lost our by all that much so for me getting the correct answer to this question is not a high priority. For me, the main interest lies in the purely technical math/stats parts as an intellectual exercise.

And also, frankly, I trust that your data is likely correct.

summerblues

Posts : 4551
Join date : 2012-03-07

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by laverfan Mon 13 Aug 2012, 3:32 am

In the Tennis draw, Line 1 always has seed 1, Line 128 has seed 2, this what I called pattern 1. I created terminology confusion, Sorry. 3 and 4 generate the remaining two patterns [(1,3), (2,4)] and [(1,4), (2,3)], so we are saying the same thing.

I have objections to the two tribe model being equivalent to the Tennis SF draw. Let me try to explain my objections clearly.

Step 1. King drawing number 1 or 2. This is the equivalent of ATP Ranking Points.

My objection is here. Each individual player plays 52-weeks of Tennis to be assigned #1 or #2. Each tribe is in control of their respective destinies to be assigned 1 and 2.

Step 2. King draws number 1 or 2 to assign the 'dinner' to the dragon.

This is equivalent to the draw at each slam, whether we get 1 or 2 from the bag. These numbers might as well be 3 and 4, then the equivalence to a SF draw would be complete. We also assume that ITF is King, but has four Provinces governed by Regional Princes AELTC, USTA, FFT and TA.

I hope my objections to the tribe' example are clearly stated. For example, if Federer pulled out of Cincinnati, would he still have number 1?

I call this manufactured data to fit a hypothesis. It is a very good example to explain the problem conceptually.

To answer your question, assuming, there is such a kingdom and the 'King' has the sole authority, I as a member of his ruled public would rebel and be part of the resistance and stop playing Tennis for his entertainment. Wink

laverfan
Moderator
Moderator

Posts : 11252
Join date : 2011-04-07
Location : NoVA, USoA

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by laverfan Mon 13 Aug 2012, 3:37 am

summerblues wrote:
laverfan wrote:If I have not made any errors in reviewing draws, then, irrespective of rankings beginning 2007 Hamburg (when Djokovic came into Top 4), the same vs opposite halves is 24/19 (almost hindsight Laugh) .
Thanks, this one I agree is interesting and to the point. Indeed, this type of analysis could be used to dispel concerns about draw rigging. Thanks for all the effort. I am not going to try to independently verify the data simply because I am ultimately not all that interested in the actual guts of the debate.

I will reverify and also add 2011-2012.

summerblues wrote:As I said yesterday, even if the draws had been rigged I would not feel Nole would have lost our by all that much so for me getting the correct answer to this question is not a high priority. For me, the main interest lies in the purely technical math/stats parts as an intellectual exercise.

And also, frankly, I trust that your data is likely correct.

Thanks, SB. Hug I am very much in favour of a math/stat exercise and cleanliness of the sport. If there is such a scandal, it should be exposed after I die.

laverfan
Moderator
Moderator

Posts : 11252
Join date : 2011-04-07
Location : NoVA, USoA

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by socal1976 Mon 13 Aug 2012, 5:38 am

Laverfan, your last line of the above post explains every thing about why you can not accept the possibility of corruption at the highest levels of the game. I mean you have an emotional need to maintain the integrity of the game you love even if frankly in my mind it is getting clear that favoritism is being practiced vis a vis fedal and Djoko.

How do you explain the fact that now in 5 tournaments this year where only 3 of the top 4 show up that Djoko as one of the top 2 always drew the other big 4 guy in his semi? Why is it that we keep having to accept that all of these multiple coincidences cutting in the same direction is just that a coincidence. Especially, in light of the recent track record of how lack of oversight in business and finance can result in monumental theft and fraud to the total of tens of trillions, yes tens of trillions when you look at it globally laverfan. In fact the 2000s will go down as the greatest era in the history of white collar criminality where more money was stolen by the rich from everyone else than had been stolen by any group of people since the dawn of time to the present.

The mathmatics is only one side of the argument. And frankly SB I am little dissappointed in how you don't feel that this is a vital issue to the game and its credibility. What do you mean it has changed anything in Djokovic's career? Each round forward in a slam is hundreds of thousands of dollars and finals appearances are chances to win the biggest prize and making the finals itself is an accomplishment.

Both SB and Laverfan's analysis in my opinion fails to look at the real world economic context of the numbers. Why is it that the more favorable financially longshots are the ones that keep coming in? Follow the money, period, end of story.

socal1976

Posts : 14212
Join date : 2011-03-18
Location : southern california

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by laverfan Mon 13 Aug 2012, 9:17 am

socal1976 wrote:Laverfan, your last line of the above post explains every thing about why you can not accept the possibility of corruption at the highest levels of the game. I mean you have an emotional need to maintain the integrity of the game you love even if frankly in my mind it is getting clear that favoritism is being practiced vis a vis fedal and Djoko.

Can the same 'emotional' need be the driver for theories that demand that we discuss the potential for corruption and favouritism? I do not have an answer.


socal1976 wrote:How do you explain the fact that now in 5 tournaments this year where only 3 of the top 4 show up that Djoko as one of the top 2 always drew the other big 4 guy in his semi? Why is it that we keep having to accept that all of these multiple coincidences cutting in the same direction is just that a coincidence. Especially, in light of the recent track record of how lack of oversight in business and finance can result in monumental theft and fraud to the total of tens of trillions, yes tens of trillions when you look at it globally laverfan. In fact the 2000s will go down as the greatest era in the history of white collar criminality where more money was stolen by the rich from everyone else than had been stolen by any group of people since the dawn of time to the present.

I do not have and probably will never have a mathematical model to explain global white collar crime. Crying or Very sad I will try and analyse the specific question that is highlighted and see if there is a balance.

socal1976 wrote:The mathmatics is only one side of the argument. And frankly SB I am little dissappointed in how you don't feel that this is a vital issue to the game and its credibility. What do you mean it has changed anything in Djokovic's career? Each round forward in a slam is hundreds of thousands of dollars and finals appearances are chances to win the biggest prize and making the finals itself is an accomplishment.

Mathematics is the basis for explaining some of the greatest mysteries of the cosmos. Wall Street trading is based on such a foundation too. Can the system be manipulated? Yes, it can be. I am not looking for a Theory of Motivation.

socal1976 wrote:Both SB and Laverfan's analysis in my opinion fails to look at the real world economic context of the numbers. Why is it that the more favorable financially longshots are the ones that keep coming in? Follow the money, period, end of story.

Sure. Following the money exposes the underlying issues, but has no explanation as to the origins of, and the underpinnings of such motivation.


laverfan
Moderator
Moderator

Posts : 11252
Join date : 2011-04-07
Location : NoVA, USoA

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by hawkeye Mon 13 Aug 2012, 9:23 am

I don't buy the draw conspiracies but I do agree that Djokovic doesn't get any favours. It is difficult for a player of his talent ability and achievements to always be in the shadow of two greats like Federer and Nadal. They will always get preferential sponsorship, media interest, first pick at show courts and more hits on facebook etc. They will always have bigger queues for autographs, more fans and more people that don't like them. They will always get talked about more...

This is tough but its the way it is. I've also thought it's particularly tough for Djokovic as he appears to really crave this sort of "love". Looked at objectively he has earned it. Especially harsh as that sort of "love" comes with huge financial rewards attached as top players make more from this than they do from prize money. He is so good with the media without Rafa and Roger he would have made a great top dog. But it's difficult to feel too sorry for him as he is a hugely successful young man. He also appears sharp enough to understand all this. I laughed at the way he handled the British media when he came into Wimbledon as world number one and defending champion but just fed them what they wanted about Andy Murray.

I believe he's got a few personal problems at the moment so huge credit to him for sticking to this crazy schedule and getting the win in Toronto.

hawkeye

Posts : 5427
Join date : 2011-06-12

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by banbrotam Mon 13 Aug 2012, 9:54 am

If anybody's disputing that Nole gets the raw end of scheduling, in comparison to the Top 2, then they are incorrect

If anybody is laughing at draws getting fixed they are correct to do so

We've seen what happens when Fed is treated like everyone else at The Olympics.

I remember the days of 2009/10 where for the US and Aus Opens the likes of Nole would be at a huge physical disadvantage if they played Nadal and Fed in the latter stages

Can't complain. Fed and Nadal had earned it

And so has Nole now

banbrotam

Posts : 3374
Join date : 2011-09-22
Age : 61
Location : Oakes, Huddersfield - West Yorkshire

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by User 774433 Mon 13 Aug 2012, 10:49 am

From the other thread:
laverfan wrote:No, Sorry

You're missing the point here. Summer's point is theoretical. It has nothing to do with tennis. Some of your replies to Summer have been slightly vague.
I can see that this is a topic which you care about- and hence maybe your emotions are getting in the way. Also I must note, that Socal's tone also suggests that he has strong emotions about this. Nevertheless this doesn't necessarily mean that neither you or Socal are wrong, but this should be kept in mind.

Now I don't believe that draw rigging exists in tennis. I don't think the ATP really has that much of an incentive to kill the integrity of the game for such things. Firstly Djokovic could be very useful to them, merchandise wise, why would they try to down him. It makes no sense. Also I have seen no evidence that the SF draw can be rigged. Can someone, LF or Socal, find out if there is a possibility where the draw can be changed- is there some sort of loophole? This is crucial.

Anyway as I said earlier tennis, or the ATP doesn't have much to do with Summer's point. Summer is pointing out, and rightly so, that by showing the seedings as balanced doesn't necessarily mean the draw is 'more' or 'less' suspicious. This doesn't mean the draws are rigged, neither me or Summer are saying that for sure LF, let's not get it twisted.
However what Summer pointed out in his tribe argument is correct. Nothing to do with tennis.
summerblues wrote:
This country's population is populated by two tribes - A and B. Once a year, the king, who is from tribe A, assigns numbers 1 and 2 to these two tribes. He then randomly pulls a number (1 or 2) from a hat. The tribe whose number is drawn has to provide the victim for the dragon.

The last 40 years, the following numbers were assigned to the tribes:

Tribe A: 1212212112111221221121212211122121122122
Tribe B: 2121121221222112112212121122211212211211

The king has drawn these numbers from his hat: 2121121221222112112212121122211212211211

As a result, the victims were coming from these tribes: BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB

Which of the following better describes your reaction?

(a) Over the last 40 years, 20 1s and 20 2s were drawn, with no obvious pattern, so I see no reason to think anything untoward has been happening.

(b) I suspect this king is not a very fair kind of guy.
Clearly this shows your point that just having the seedings balanced doesn't kill the point. Period.

User 774433

Posts : 5067
Join date : 2012-05-18

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by Josiah Maiestas Mon 13 Aug 2012, 11:10 am

This is completely a dead alley argument. Socal always has to scapegoat someone for Djokovic's failings, you have better chance arguing with the taxman than getting any progress on this debate.
Josiah Maiestas
Josiah Maiestas

Posts : 6700
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 34
Location : Towel Island

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by JuliusHMarx Mon 13 Aug 2012, 11:15 am

OK, let's try this one

Tribe A: 1212212112111221221121212211122121122122
Tribe B: 2121121221222112112212121122211212211211

The king has drawn these numbers from his hat: 1212212112111221221112121122211212211211

Result : AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB

Is the king conducting a fair, random draw?

Or what if the result was ABABABABABABABABABABABABABABABABABABABAB? Would anyone make accusations of draw rigging?

IMBL, also see the link LF posted above, to my post on a previous thread. Given the unusual situation of the top 4 being the same 4 players for a long time, some sort of of very statistically unusual pattern is far more likely.

JuliusHMarx
julius
julius

Posts : 22332
Join date : 2011-07-01
Location : Paisley Park

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by laverfan Mon 13 Aug 2012, 11:19 am



It Must Be Love wrote:You're missing the point here. Summer's point is theoretical. It has nothing to do with tennis.

summerblues wrote:First, tennis SF draws are mathematically equivalent to the two tribe example.


These two statements are contradictory. If I were a computer, I would say 'Does not compute". Wink I have taken real-life data, not an abstract model to state my case. I also provided an example of a lottery being won. Abstractions are theoretical, but real-life information is not.

It Must Be Love wrote:Some of your replies to Summer have been slightly vague.


Please read the following posts for clarity within the context.



socal1976 wrote:Excellent post again by summerblues, and I commend you as IMBL as a non-djoko fan who is actually addressing the evidence and charges without an ideological bent to at least ask the questions and say that we have some smoke here.

socal1976 wrote:And frankly SB I am little dissappointed in how you don't feel that this is a vital issue to the game and its credibility. What do you mean it has changed anything in Djokovic's career?


chin SB is open-minded enough to accept the table of draws 2007-2010 that I put together and understand my case.

Personally, Djokovic is at the peak of his career and will continue to win (like Toronto). Let us give the player credit for his Tennis.

laverfan
Moderator
Moderator

Posts : 11252
Join date : 2011-04-07
Location : NoVA, USoA

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by User 774433 Mon 13 Aug 2012, 11:30 am

Away from Summer's point, which I think has been shown: the names do matter (when observing), as well as the seedings.

However I think, if it comes to draw rigging, then this is totally missing the point. These stats are slightly irrelevant on their own, they are not the real matters we need to look at.

Motive:
Firstly we would have to look closely at whether or not they would really have motive. Well, enough motive to kill the integrity of the game. This really would be a huge risk, the ATP and draw companies would lose all credibility if they were caught. Is it worth it?
At the moment the ATP have Federer and Nadal worldwide who have captured the tennis fans. They are hugely profitable for them, no doubt. What happens when these two are gone? I think the ATP will need Djokovic, and Murray. Honestly the bigger Djokovic becomes now the better for the ATP, he is their future star. Socal has said they don't like Djokovic and prefer Fed and Nadal, but let's not assume they are naive. Surely they think long-term, I don't think downing Djokovic would be profitable overall, so risking the integrity of themselves and the game seems unlikely, but not necessarily impossible.

Is there space for draw-rigging?
Socal has made it seem like draw-rigging for the ATP is a 'cakewalk.' But is this really the case? Can they really rig the semi-final draw, is it that easy. We need to investigate this further in detail. Is they system water-tight?
IIRC some draws are filmed. In Slams aren't they picked by players themselves. Surely they are not party to this. Is there really any way the draws can already be fixed before it is picked? It seems unlikely, but once again not impossible.
*One thing I do remember is that there is a difference to the SF draw, compared to the rest of it, i.e. the halves the top 4 are put into is done differently to the rest of the draw. I can't remember what the exact difference was- but the question arises is whether this system can be manipulated.

Implementation:
This is where the stats really come in. Let's say the ATP did have complete control over the draws. What would they do?
I mean, OK, let's say that they did have a specific motive (would just like to make clear I do not think this is the case but it is necessary to think in this way).
As they had complete control they would firstly try to complete this 'motive' whatever it is, BUT surely they would be very very cautious. They wouldn't want to make it too suspicious.
This is why the 12vs12 argument is actually a thorn. Before a draw in a major event, there is always a feeling that if the Top 4 are present and seedings allow it, it will be Djokovic- Federer, Murray-Nadal, among tennis forums and fans. (now this can't happen anymore as seedings wouldn't allow it- but in the past it has happened many times). In-fact I would go as far to say that, for me, there is a sense of inevitability about it- not that I think the draw is rigged.
But thinking about it in-depth leads to the point: surely this is what the ATP would want to avoid if they had complete control. Surely they would mix it up more often so this type of suspicion is never raised, among any level (it has not appeared in media though, which is understandable as any media outlet would not want to take such a gamble as bring up corruption unless they find any proof with an investigations).
So my point is that if the draw is rigged, it would be more balanced- the names would be made to be more balanced. Now Laverfan has brought up some great stats on seeding placements. But let's be honest how many people knew about that. If 1-3 seeding placement was repeated 10 times no one would bat an eyelid. No-one apart from Laver would probably notice. So the draw-riggers would probably ensure that the names are more balanced, while still trying to complete their motive. I don't think the name-placement would look like it does now- in Slams it is too one-sided to Djokovic-Federer.


So thus overall, I think it is very unlikely that the draws are rigged, although more investigation into how water-tight the draw system is would help.

User 774433

Posts : 5067
Join date : 2012-05-18

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by JuliusHMarx Mon 13 Aug 2012, 11:52 am

IMBL, you would also have to assume that all the officials at the top of the ATP/ITF are corrupt and that anyone else within the game, including the players, who had strong suspicions of wrong-doing but aren't doing anything about it, would be complicit by not speaking up or taking any other action.
In other words, that corruption and the acceptance of it would be rife and wide-spread amongst officials and players (including Djokovic, if he is keeping quiet about it, to protect himself against any comeback).
Of course, it one accepts such corruption is there, then the idea of 'silent suspensions' also becomes viable.

JuliusHMarx
julius
julius

Posts : 22332
Join date : 2011-07-01
Location : Paisley Park

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by User 774433 Mon 13 Aug 2012, 11:55 am

JuliusHMarx wrote:IMBL, you would also have to assume that all the officials at the top of the ATP/ITF are corrupt and that anyone else within the game, including the players, who had strong suspicions of wrong-doing but aren't doing anything about it, would be complicit by not speaking up or taking any other action.
In other words, that corruption and the acceptance of it would be rife and wide-spread amongst officials and players (including Djokovic, if he is keeping quiet about it, to protect himself against any comeback).
Julius it is not 100% necessary that the players would have to know about it. If some people in the ATP were so powerful to be able to rig draws at will, they would probably also be able to keep it as secret as possible and ensure that few people get hold of any information Wink

User 774433

Posts : 5067
Join date : 2012-05-18

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by JuliusHMarx Mon 13 Aug 2012, 11:59 am

IMBL, if one assumes that there is draw-rigging and that it's so obvious that anyone who can't see it is naive to the point of madness, then we have to assume that the players are not as naive as us i.e. that it is obvious to them and that they must know it is happening.

JuliusHMarx
julius
julius

Posts : 22332
Join date : 2011-07-01
Location : Paisley Park

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by laverfan Mon 13 Aug 2012, 11:59 am

Table for 2011-2012 including Toronto (Will update this when 2012 completes)

From the previous table of 24/20 and adding 2011-2012 (so far), I get 35/29 (24 + 8 + 3)/(20+5 +4).

Please indicate any missing data and I will correct the two tables.

Tournament20112012
Australian OpenFederer 2 (Djokovic), Djokovic 3Federer 3 (Nadal), (o) Djokovic 1
DubaiFederer 2 (Djokovic), Djokovic 3Federer 3, (o) Djokovic 1 (Murray)
Indian WellsFederer 2 (Djokovic), Djokovic 3Federer 3, (o) Djokovic 1 (Isner)
MiamiFederer 3 (Nadal), (o) Djokovic 2 Federer 3 (Roddick), (o) Djokovic 1
Monte CarloNo DjokovicNo Federer
RomeFederer 3 (Gasquet), (o) Djokovic (2)Federer 2 (Djokovic), Djokovic 1
Hamburg
RGFederer 3, Djokovic 2 (Federer)Federer 3 (Djokovic), Djokovic 1
WimbledonFederer 3 (Tsonga), Djokovic 2Federer 3, Djokovic 1 (Federer)
CanadaFederer 3 (Tsonga), Djokovic 1No Federer
CincinnatiFederer 3 (Berdych), Djokovic 1 (Murray)
USOFederer 3 (Djokovic), Djokovic 1
MadridFederer 3 (Nadal), (o) Djokovic 2
ShanghaiNo Djokovic, Federer
BaselFederer 4, (o) Djokovic 1 (Nishikori)
ParisFederer 4, (o) Djokovic 1 (Tsonga)
RotterdamNo DjokovicNo Djokovic
Opposite Halves54
Same Halves83

It Must be Love wrote:... the names do matter (when observing), as well as the seedings...

I don't think the name-placement would look like it does now- in Slams it is too one-sided to Djokovic-Federer.

A 35/29 overall is balanced, with and without names. Statistically, it is not perfect. Again, why pick on Slams in isolation to perpetuate this urban legend?

banbrotam wrote:And so has Nole now

I hope Murray gets added to this list. Wink


laverfan
Moderator
Moderator

Posts : 11252
Join date : 2011-04-07
Location : NoVA, USoA

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by laverfan Mon 13 Aug 2012, 12:01 pm

It Must Be Love wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:IMBL, you would also have to assume that all the officials at the top of the ATP/ITF are corrupt and that anyone else within the game, including the players, who had strong suspicions of wrong-doing but aren't doing anything about it, would be complicit by not speaking up or taking any other action.
In other words, that corruption and the acceptance of it would be rife and wide-spread amongst officials and players (including Djokovic, if he is keeping quiet about it, to protect himself against any comeback).
Julius it is not 100% necessary that the players would have to know about it. If some people in the ATP were so powerful to be able to rig draws at will, they would probably also be able to keep it as secret as possible and ensure that few people get hold of any information Wink

I object to rampant paranoia. Wink

laverfan
Moderator
Moderator

Posts : 11252
Join date : 2011-04-07
Location : NoVA, USoA

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by User 774433 Mon 13 Aug 2012, 12:03 pm

Actually I think this 'draw rigging' debate that has taken place is fundamentally flawed.

On 606v2, it has been seen that the more statistically unlikely something is, the more likely it is a product of the rigged draw.

But let's think of it outside the box. Let's assume Federer and Djokovic drew between 2007-2011 20 slams straight in the SF. 20/20.
Socal would be furious, claiming this is hardcore evidence, proof.
But let's be serious here. Would the draw-riggers be that moronic? Would they really make it 20/20. Surely not. They can't be that stupid.

So, in my opinion, I think that if the draw-rigging was fabricated the name placement would be much more balanced to avoid suspicion. In-fact I believe in such a small data set huge variations are much more likely- statistical 'anomalies' could actually be natural in such a small data set- but if this was repeated hundreds of times it would balance out- but here and there in small data sets there would be huge variations.

User 774433

Posts : 5067
Join date : 2012-05-18

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by invisiblecoolers Mon 13 Aug 2012, 3:48 pm

Understand this problem SB which our friend Socal never do.

Since you go Maths and Stats I will say this by Constants vs. Variables

1]Names are variables where as numbers are constants
2] Variables will have different value with time , like in our case the names will have different seedings for a tournament, where as constants value never change and hence 1 will always be 1.
3]Draw is based on constants and not on variables, you can never do it on variables coz the variables value keep changing.

To explain this clear, Del Potro was ranked 248 at the start of 2011, his form in 2010 was as bad as that [what ever be the reason like injury] and he hence doesn't deserve to meet the top 4 only in quarters , considering his form and ranking he can draw anybody in the 1st round itself.

Had we done the draw by names, then Hewitt,Roddick, Ferrero, Safin, Federer,Nadal,Agassi [all who played in 2004] ranked no.1 in the past cannot be drawn against each other before semi's which makes it an impossible scenario, thats why draw can never be done on variables i.e on names, coz their rankings keep changing and never remain constant. thumbsup

Hence the draw can only be done on constants ,i.e the seedings here and which LF has clarified has gone right by stats.

Djoko was the best player in 2011 but certainly the 2nd best in 2012 so far and whats the garuntee he will remain the 2nd best by the end of 2013? so if Djoko lose his ranking to say no.17 does he still deserve to meet the top 4 only in semi's? certainly not. thumbsup

Hope this clears the confusion now for you and the So-Called Confusionist Controversy theorem core guys. thumbsup

invisiblecoolers

Posts : 4963
Join date : 2011-05-31
Location : Toronto

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by HM Murdock Mon 13 Aug 2012, 4:18 pm

invisiblecoolers wrote:Djoko was the best player in 2011 but certainly the 2nd best in 2012 so far

May I refer you to this:
http://live-tennis.eu/race

I think you'll find Djoko is the best so far in 2012! More points than Fed with fewer tournaments played!

HM Murdock

Posts : 4749
Join date : 2011-06-10

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by invisiblecoolers Mon 13 Aug 2012, 4:30 pm

HM Murdoch wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:Djoko was the best player in 2011 but certainly the 2nd best in 2012 so far

May I refer you to this:
http://live-tennis.eu/race

I think you'll find Djoko is the best so far in 2012! More points than Fed with fewer tournaments played!

HMM, thats the exact point I am talking regarding to names, their rankings change, race is never the right one and not even official authorized by ATP anymore, so I just go with ATP rankings. thumbsup , by the end of clay season Rafa always the best of the year then.

That statement is made in conjunction to the topic of discussion splitting and viewing would make no sense.

invisiblecoolers

Posts : 4963
Join date : 2011-05-31
Location : Toronto

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by HM Murdock Mon 13 Aug 2012, 4:57 pm

invisiblecoolers wrote:HMM, thats the exact point I am talking regarding to names, their rankings change, race is never the right one and not even official authorized by ATP anymore, so I just go with ATP rankings. thumbsup , by the end of clay season Rafa always the best of the year then.

That statement is made in conjunction to the topic of discussion splitting and viewing would make no sense.

IC, your point about the rankings and the maths behind the stats is completely accurate but unfortunately it cannot be used to counter the "Confusionist Controversy Theorum" as you so eloquently put it!

This is because the the conspiracy theory depends on the players identity. It states that draws are being manipulated based on who the players are. Therefore any analysis of the ranking may be accurate and interesting but it does not address the crux of the conspiracy theory.

It's like me saying I'm going to randomly select 100 people based on their gender. I select a group and it turns out to be made up of 50 men and 50 women. You then notice that every single one of the group has ginger hair. You then suggest that this is an odd outcome, I must have manipulated the selection. I respond by saying "Of course, I didn't manipulate it. Look, the split between the genders is completely normal".

Whatever analysis I do on the statistics of the male/female split, it will never work as a response your assertion that I picked by hair colour.

The conspiracy theory, in broad terms can be stated like this: "the outcomes we would expect if manipulation based on identity is taking place look a lot like the outcomes we are getting".

To give a scaled down example, if Nadal is absent from a tournament, the best financial outcome for the tournament is to have Federer in the final. IF manipulation were to take place, you would expect Federer to be given the lower seed in the semi.

This scenario has happened three times this year and three times Fed got the lower seed.

This in itself does not prove manipulation but it is enough to raise eyebrows.

HM Murdock

Posts : 4749
Join date : 2011-06-10

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by invisiblecoolers Mon 13 Aug 2012, 5:06 pm

Good one HMM thumbsup , I in the past have fueled the these consipracy as well and I would fuel it further stating the USO draw will be like this

Fed -Murray, Djoko-Nadal , but I guess you would agree with me that Murray is the hottest soup to handle now in USO, a Fed fan would rather prefer a Djoko/Nadal over Murray in semi's, however Fed/Djoko cannot happen in semi's, it doesn't matter Nadal/Murray both are capable of upsetting the applecart for Fed.

On the other hand Djoko fans shold rather be happy to have Nadal in semi's compared to Murray, an inform Murray in semi's will prove a disaster for Nole.

invisiblecoolers

Posts : 4963
Join date : 2011-05-31
Location : Toronto

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by Born Slippy Mon 13 Aug 2012, 5:23 pm

I just had a look back at Basel 2011, which again had nadal the only top 4 absentee. On that occasion Murray and Federer were placed in the same half with novak getting the "easy" draw.

Born Slippy

Posts : 4464
Join date : 2012-05-05

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by hawkeye Mon 13 Aug 2012, 5:31 pm

invisiblecoolers wrote:

Fed -Murray, Djoko-Nadal , but I guess you would agree with me that Murray is the hottest soup to handle now in USO, a Fed fan would rather prefer a Djoko/Nadal over Murray in semi's, however Fed/Djoko cannot happen in semi's, it doesn't matter Nadal/Murray both are capable of upsetting the applecart for Fed.

On the other hand Djoko fans shold rather be happy to have Nadal in semi's compared to Murray, an inform Murray in semi's will prove a disaster for Nole.

This Fed and Rafa fan would prefer Fed to be matched with "hot soup" Murray and poor Nadal and poor Djoko to slug it out in the other semi. Sorry but there's no way round it. No way should one of the most anticipated matches in tennis today be a potential semi. A potential stupid saturday semi at that. If Nadal declares himself fit I will be seriously considering flying to New York to fix the draw myself. I may have to read through a few of these threads first to figure out how it can be done... I think it involve throwing dice...

hawkeye

Posts : 5427
Join date : 2011-06-12

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by laverfan Mon 13 Aug 2012, 5:57 pm

Born Slippy wrote:I just had a look back at Basel 2011, which again had nadal the only top 4 absentee. On that occasion Murray and Federer were placed in the same half with novak getting the "easy" draw.

The two tables that I have can be used to look at this across 2007-2012. Just pick the 'No Federer', 'No Djokovic' entries and look at the corresponding draws. Wink

laverfan
Moderator
Moderator

Posts : 11252
Join date : 2011-04-07
Location : NoVA, USoA

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by laverfan Mon 13 Aug 2012, 7:06 pm

2009 Dubai - Djokovic-Simon (1-3), Murray-Ferrer (2-4).

Gasquet had W/O against Murray.

Djokovic d Simon (SF)
Ferrer d Gasquet (SF)
Djokovic d Ferrer (F)

2009 Shanghai - Nadal-Del Potro (1-3), Djokovic-Roddick (2-4)

Davydenko d Djokovic (SF)
Nadal d Lopez (SF)
Davydenko d Nadal (F)

2010 Dubai - Federer-Murray (1-3), Djokovic-Davydenko (2-4)

Federer (Lung Infection) replaced by Robredo. Tipsarevic d Murray.
Berrer d Davydenko (RET).

Djokovic d Baghdatis (SF)
Youzhny d Melzer (SF)
Djokovic d Youzhny (F)

2010 Madrid - Federer-Murray (1-3), Nadal-Soderling (2-4)

Ferrer d Murray. Almagro d Soderling.

Federer d Ferrer (SF)
Nadal d Almagro (SF)
Nadal d Federer (F)

2010 Rotterdam - Djokovic-Monfils (1-4), Davydenko-Soderling (2-3)

Soderling d Davydenko (SF)
Youzhny d Djokovic (SF)
Soderling d Youzhny (F)

2011 Monte Carlo - Nadal-Murray (1-3), Federer-Ferrer(2-4)

Melzer d Federer.

Ferrer d Melzer (SF)
Nadal d Murray (SF) (Murray had cortisone injections to be able to play).
Nadal d Ferrer (F)

2012 Monte Carlo - Djokovic-Murray(1-3), Nadal-Tsonga (2-4)

Simon d Tsonga

Nadal d Simon (SF)
Djokovic d Berdych (SF)
Nadal d Djokovic (F)

2012 Canada is recent.

Readers can make their own judgements on the fact when one of Top 4 is missing, which draws are considered harder. IMVHO, all draws are hard.

I will look for more draws where one of the Top 4 is absent.

laverfan
Moderator
Moderator

Posts : 11252
Join date : 2011-04-07
Location : NoVA, USoA

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by HM Murdock Mon 13 Aug 2012, 7:30 pm

Laverfan - phenomenal research! Any chance we could see just the outcomes when Djoko is seeded 1 or 2 and another member of the top 4 is absent? That could pretty much end the debate! (I'd be happy to look it up myself but I know I won't have a chance tonight).

Invisiblecoolers - I really don't know what I consider the easiest semi out of Nadal or Murray at USO! From Djoko's perspective perhaps Nadal and playing first on Super Saturday?

This is pretty much the reason why I find it much harder to believe in draw rigging at the slams when all 4 of the top guys are there - it's simply impossible to decide which the harder opponent!

HM Murdock

Posts : 4749
Join date : 2011-06-10

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by socal1976 Mon 13 Aug 2012, 7:39 pm

banbrotam wrote:If anybody's disputing that Nole gets the raw end of scheduling, in comparison to the Top 2, then they are incorrect

If anybody is laughing at draws getting fixed they are correct to do so

We've seen what happens when Fed is treated like everyone else at The Olympics.

I remember the days of 2009/10 where for the US and Aus Opens the likes of Nole would be at a huge physical disadvantage if they played Nadal and Fed in the latter stages

Can't complain. Fed and Nadal had earned it

And so has Nole now

What favorable treatment has nole received for getting the number 1 ranking, the hardest possible semi draw 15 out of 17 times and 5 straight tournaments where when 3/4 of the big 4 show up he always gets the other big 4 guy in his semi. Every single time this year. No Novak has been discriminated and fedal protected unlike anything I have seen in 30 years of tennis. I mean when it was Borg, Mac, and Connors did Mcenroe always have to play connors in the semi, even that analogy doesn't hold because those three where never as consistently entrenched in the top 3 as the current top 3 has been and borg retired early and Mac fizzled a bit in the middle of his career.

Frankly, it has at the very least cost Novak one grandslam title, at the very least. It may cost him the year end #1. And people talk about oh how Roger and Rafa have earned it. No you earn it on the court regardless of who your name is. You can have more facebook fans, as long as the draw committees don't act as your fans and crap on the credibility of the sport.

Especially the last two years it has been ridiculous. Frankly the powers at be have done whatever possilbe to throw Roger the year end #1. 3 times this year already when Novak, Roger, and Andy show up to a tourney guess who gets Andy every time, yes that is right Novak gets Andy in the semi and Roger gets I don't know whoever else who rolls over. In short, frankly the legitimacy of the #1 ranking this year in my mind is called into question. If Roger gets the number 1 ranking and barely edges Novak out this year, I am going to scream bloody murder and fix for the entire offseason. We already have the tainted 2011 FO now they will taint the entire 2012 by throwing Roger the #1 ranking like they upgrade him to a silver medal in the olympics.


Frankly, after all the cupcakes Roger is being fed if he gets the number 1 by a whisker I will see it as a taint on the game and I will neither congratulate him or his fans. You can enjoy your stolen medal and #1 on your own Ill be there to crap on the parade.

socal1976

Posts : 14212
Join date : 2011-03-18
Location : southern california

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by JuliusHMarx Mon 13 Aug 2012, 7:46 pm

Given that :-
1. Rafa and Fed have as much to gain as anyone by any draw-rigging
2. Rafa and Fed no doubt have a great deal of influence over tournament organisers
3. They know that they could get away with it
4. Where 1 and 3 apply, 99% of the time it equals fraud

Then what can we logically conclude?

JuliusHMarx
julius
julius

Posts : 22332
Join date : 2011-07-01
Location : Paisley Park

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by socal1976 Mon 13 Aug 2012, 8:06 pm

Laverfan I don't get your table frankly maybe I am dense it doesn't seem to address the question I am asking. Here it is in plain speak; in Dubai, Monte Carlo, the olympics, and cincy only 3 top 4 players showed up and every time Djokovic (always ranked in the top 2) got the other big 4 semi. Every single time. AGain another 16 to 1 longshot that comes in serving the financial interests of getting fedal or one of them into the final. Again last year we had till this AO where fed was put into Nadal's half we had 6 slams in a row where Djoko was put in fed's half. That is 64 to 1 longshot that again maximizes the chance of fedal finals and cuts in favor of the financial interests of the tournaments.


Numbers are wonderful for providing raw data but without applying the mathmatics to real world of people they lack any context. Why are the longshots that favor the pocketbooks of the tournaments and broadcasters the longshots that keep coming in? And no we aren't even talking about longshot any more we are talking about multiple longshots and odd numbers on multiple fronts.

Here is some math for those of you who need it. Money+no oversight=fraud

This rule holds true pretty much every time.

socal1976

Posts : 14212
Join date : 2011-03-18
Location : southern california

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by JuliusHMarx Mon 13 Aug 2012, 8:50 pm

socal1976 wrote:Here is some math for those of you who need it. Money+no oversight=fraud

This rule holds true pretty much every time.

So what do you reckon - are Fed and Rafa in on it? Not just money for them but titles, prestige, legacy etc.

JuliusHMarx
julius
julius

Posts : 22332
Join date : 2011-07-01
Location : Paisley Park

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by socal1976 Mon 13 Aug 2012, 9:00 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
socal1976 wrote:Here is some math for those of you who need it. Money+no oversight=fraud

This rule holds true pretty much every time.

So what do you reckon - are Fed and Rafa in on it? Not just money for them but titles, prestige, legacy etc.

Excellent question, first of all I fed into this conspiracy thing myself when jokingly I called one of my threads Socal's conspiracy corner. But there actually doesn't need to be any conspiracy at all. You do need a master planned conspiracy for capitalists to have an incentive to make more money through better ratings. I mean I am sure it isn't like people at the slams communicating with each other about how we should keep Roger and Rafa on separate halves of slams. The money is in having Roger and Rafa in the final, preferrably both, hopefully at least 1. The ratings for finals involving one or both are higher than the ratings of events neither play in the final. hence to maximize your chances of getting the ratings cow of a fedal final you have to keep them on separate halves of the draw. These are series of indpendent decisions from similarly situated people who have the same financial motivations. You don't need a conspiracy in order to make capitalists or anyone else for that matter to like money. It is like if you leave the front door open at first thief 1 comes in and takes your TV and money, then thief 2 comes in and takes your jewlery, neither thief has any idea even of the existence of the other. They just saw an open door and money and both independtly made the same decision. No conspiracy, conspiracy involves a meeting of the minds and a criminal agreement among parties and act in furtherance of said conspiracy.

socal1976

Posts : 14212
Join date : 2011-03-18
Location : southern california

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by JuliusHMarx Mon 13 Aug 2012, 9:23 pm

Can I re-phrase it as a Yes/No question? Or can you re-phrase it as a Yes/No answer? You have to remember I'm a cromagnon, so you need to keep it simple.



JuliusHMarx
julius
julius

Posts : 22332
Join date : 2011-07-01
Location : Paisley Park

Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by Guest Mon 13 Aug 2012, 9:27 pm

socal this argument always leads to a blind alley.

Give me legitimate reasons as to why draw organisers want to discriminate against Djokovic? Tell me what it is about him they dislike to such an extent that he doesn't get what you would deem an easy draw?

Would Djokovic think of Nadal and Murray as 'easier' opponents than Federer? You bet you ass he wouldn't!

He had a 'favourable' draw at the Olympics and he didn't succeed. A favourable draw at Toronto and he won it. So where is the discrimination in those instances.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by Guest Mon 13 Aug 2012, 9:30 pm

socal1976 wrote:... What does the JFK assassination have to do with Novak ...
The grassy Nole. Quad erat demonstrandum.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Names, numbers and Nole Empty Re: Names, numbers and Nole

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 3 1, 2, 3  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum