Nadal in 2013

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Nadal in 2013

Post by barrystar on Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:09 am

There is a very real prospect of Nadal terrorising draws throughout the clay season by being the #5 seed; as others have pointed out, it could be bad for Nadal, but how bad could it be for Fed, Murray, or Djoko?

In essence, Nadal's got to play the Aus Open and make at least the SF to put staying close to #4 in his own hands. Even then, if Ferrer matches his 2012 AO QF then Nadal goes No. 5 if he fails to make the AO F again and his immediate following task is to defend two SF's at IW/Miami. Because Nadal has two 0's for the late season 500's his chances of serious points gains on the South American clay circuit are limited, and his only chance of gains on the European clay is at Madrid.

Much depends upon Ferrer, who has a decent chance of defending his points haul up through most of the clay season. His most risky points are the W at Acapulco, the SF at Rome, and a F at Barcelona, but he has R32 at IW and Monte Carlo as a chance to gain points, and fairly defendable QF's at AO, Miami, and Madrid. He doesn't need to defend any of his 250 wins. If Ferrer maintains a similar standard and Nadal can make the SF at the AO and keep close to his 2012 pace they'll be close - possibly playing leapfrog.

If Nadal doesn't play Aus Open, or goes out at QF or earlier there he's going to struggle to stay in the top 4 until after Wimbledon unless Ferrer collapses; after that Nadal has the potential for huge gains.

So - an AO QF re-match of Ferrer vs. Nadal 2011 would be a most fascinating early encounter in 2013.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by banbrotam on Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:28 am

Surely Ferrer is now going to get regularly beaten by Raonic, Tipsy and (when they meet outside the Slams) Berdy and Tsonga, i.e. a gradual slide to No.8

That could be Rafa's way in, back to No.4 - the ones below him all take points of each other

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by bogbrush on Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:33 am

banbrotam wrote:Surely Ferrer is now going to get regularly beaten by Raonic, Tipsy and (when they meet outside the Slams) Berdy and Tsonga, i.e. a gradual slide to No.8

That could be Rafa's way in, back to No.4 - the ones below him all take points of each other
Why? There's no sign that Ferrer will lose out to any of them; Tsonga especially is going backwards.

Tipsy Laugh

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by time please on Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:40 am

When Nadal comes back he will be a force and from RG onwards, 2013 will most probably belong to him.

He won't be back unless he believes that he can be that competitive imo.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by banbrotam on Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:40 am

bogbrush wrote:
banbrotam wrote:Surely Ferrer is now going to get regularly beaten by Raonic, Tipsy and (when they meet outside the Slams) Berdy and Tsonga, i.e. a gradual slide to No.8

That could be Rafa's way in, back to No.4 - the ones below him all take points of each other
Why? There's no sign that Ferrer will lose out to any of them; Tsonga especially is going backwards.

Tipsy Laugh


Much as I like and indeed protect Ferrer from the disrespect he sometimes gets, it shouldn't take much Berdych or Tsonga to start beating him more regular. Tsonga's new coach might finally work. Tipsy is very much and outsider but I did miss off Del Potro

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by barrystar on Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:48 am

banbrotam wrote:
bogbrush wrote:
banbrotam wrote:Surely Ferrer is now going to get regularly beaten by Raonic, Tipsy and (when they meet outside the Slams) Berdy and Tsonga, i.e. a gradual slide to No.8

That could be Rafa's way in, back to No.4 - the ones below him all take points of each other
Why? There's no sign that Ferrer will lose out to any of them; Tsonga especially is going backwards.

Tipsy Laugh


Much as I like and indeed protect Ferrer from the disrespect he sometimes gets, it shouldn't take much Berdych or Tsonga to start beating him more regular. Tsonga's new coach might finally work. Tipsy is very much and outsider but I did miss off Del Potro

You may be right - but he'll avoid dangerous opponents like that until the QF in any Slam or Masters, and later in lesser tournaments. He's also a better player on clay than most of them. For that reason he's got a v. good chance of defending points up to QF until RG, and if he can hit that level more or less consistently, sometimes doing better, sometimes doing worse, he's going to be close to Nadal's points tally.

If Nadal does go through much of the early season at #5 needing to defend his huge points tally (worthy of a rank in the top 4) that will be the sternest test he's faced for about 8 years. I'm not saying he won't do it, but it may be pretty interesting watching him try.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by sirfredperry on Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:50 am

No one should write Ferrer off but there must be doubts about his ability to carry on his all-out, fighting game in his 30s.
Let's face it, NO ONE has any idea just what Rafa is gonna be like when he returns. When was the last time one of the really top players had such a long lay off (excluding del Po)? Rafa may be fit but he obviously won' be match fit , if you get my meaning.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by Silver on Tue Nov 13, 2012 3:39 pm

Is it possible for Ferrer to overtake Rafa prior to AO 2013? If that happens, then the draw could be torn to shreds for the top players, because there's potential for one to get a far easier ride.

Imagine the following scenario - (1)Djokovic vs (5)Nadal, (3)Murray vs (7)Del Potro in the QFs on one side, and then Federer on the other side of the draw with Ferrer in the SF. Djokovic, Nadal or Murray would have to beat the others + Federer in consecutive matches! And obviously Djokovic could also benefit in the same way - the only guarantee is that Novak and Roger won't play before the final. It's just as likely that Nadal winds up in Ferrer's quarter anyway, balancing out the draw again.

Either way, it seems likely that Rafa will slide to #5 at some stage, which could cause similar havoc at RG. Honestly, more than any other year, the draws could be absolutely vital in 2013. I hope his knee's better upon his return, the tour just isn't the same without him.

(A Fedal Slam QF in particular would have this board and many others frothing at the mouth, I'm sure!)

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by hawkeye on Tue Nov 13, 2012 4:23 pm

Silver wrote:

A Fedal Slam QF

Don't even say such things! JuliusHMarx is this against 606v2 posting rules? If not it should be...

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by carrieg4 on Tue Nov 13, 2012 4:27 pm

hawkeye wrote:
Silver wrote:

A Fedal Slam QF

Don't even say such things! JuliusHMarx is this against 606v2 posting rules? If not it should be...

I thought you loved Fedal matches Hawkeye Whistle

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by gboycottnut on Wed Nov 14, 2012 7:15 pm

When Nadal comes back in 2013, there will be one player who will be waiting to play against him. His name is Lukas Rosol.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by socal1976 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 7:33 pm

Excellent point from Silver, interesting which big 4 player gets Nadal in their quarter and at what slam. The draws will be very important next year until the natural balance of a big 4 is established. Personally, I think Del Po is going to step in and make it a big 5 as well and that will only enhance the importance of the draws. The big 4 guy that doesn't get Nadal or Del po I think will be feeling good about his quarter.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by Danny_1982 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 7:40 pm

Socal - you really think Delpo can compete with the other 4 consistently? I'm not so sure. Yes he has great weapons, but the others move soooo much better than players of Delpo's build. I could see him maybe knocking one of the top 4 out of a slam in 2013, and maybe having some Bo3 success against them...

But I'm not convinced he would be able to carry that body around for 7 Bo5 matches and move well enough to win a slam. I know he already has a slam, but being as he has not really come close since and not even yet won a masters, I'm wondering if that incredible 2 weeks he had were the exception rather than the rule.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by banbrotam on Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:58 pm

For me Delpo, is still not an issue at a Slam for the Top 3 playing. It's rare that the Argentinean can play his 'lights out' Tennis for two hours and it's arguably you need longer against Novdalmur!!

What Rafa did in 2010 is forced these three to get even better and more crucially even more hard nosed - Fed today is a player who no longer panics when he gets behind or gets caught, something that was an issue a couple of years ago


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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by socal1976 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:09 pm

I don't know banbro, Del Po is getting better I think he surprised me with how he played on grass a surface that frankly he should be terrible on. In my opinion he is going to make a move next year upward in skill level by a small but significant amount. As long as he can stay healthy, and that has been a big if with Argentine, I think he has a real chance to make it a big 5.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by socal1976 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:19 pm

Danny_1982 wrote:Socal - you really think Delpo can compete with the other 4 consistently? I'm not so sure. Yes he has great weapons, but the others move soooo much better than players of Delpo's build. I could see him maybe knocking one of the top 4 out of a slam in 2013, and maybe having some Bo3 success against them...

But I'm not convinced he would be able to carry that body around for 7 Bo5 matches and move well enough to win a slam. I know he already has a slam, but being as he has not really come close since and not even yet won a masters, I'm wondering if that incredible 2 weeks he had were the exception rather than the rule.

That is the 64000 dollar question is whether Del po can handle a full season danny at the kind of pace Novak and Murray are going to set? He does have a big body and more weight and strain on his joints. Like I said if healthy enough, I think he will be good enough.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by Spaghetti-Hans on Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:27 pm

Fear not fellow tennis fans.

A psychological breakthrough has been made.

Nadal has finally realized that titles and ranking points won via defensive tennis are utterly worthless.

As such, he has opted to stay away from the Major Slams - Wimbledon and the US Open. Unfortunately, we may have to tolerate his presence at the Minors - the French and Australian Opens. But, after 6 months firmly on the shelf, Nadal is unlikely to make much of an impact at these events regardless.

Let's just collectively hope that Nadal honors his word....

And stays away.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by User 774433 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:34 pm

Oh great, Pot Noodles is here.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by socal1976 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:55 pm

Why not IMBL this is where bad comics come to die from what I hear, one more never hurts the party.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by lydian on Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:21 pm

Rafa couldnt give a fig about being #4 or #40...if he can play anywhere near his normal level he'll be #2 or #3 in no time at all. You cant suppress talent.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by socal1976 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:24 pm

lydian wrote:Rafa couldnt give a fig about being #4 or #40...if he can play anywhere near his normal level he'll be #2 or #3 in no time at all. You cant suppress talent.

Can't argue with that at all, exactly how I see it.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by hawkeye on Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:27 pm

lydian wrote:Rafa couldnt give a fig about being #4 or #40...if he can play anywhere near his normal level he'll be #2 or #3 in no time at all. You cant suppress talent.

Number two or three? Pftt! He was number one in the race for the first half of the season despite having physical problems. If he can play at his normal level why shouldn't he return to this same level?

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by lydian on Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:29 pm

Agassi went down to #141 and was back to #1 within a year.
If you've got it, you've got it...the Ferrer's, Berdy's, Tsonga's of this world wont hold him back. The top 3 wont either...not all the time. None of them like to face him...especially before the semis. He's going to come back with a huge point to prove, and he's one guy who plays extremely well when he's chasing the pack.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by lydian on Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:29 pm

I meant for starters HE...#1 will take abit longer.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by hawkeye on Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:34 pm

Ok! Fair enough.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by Spaghetti-Hans on Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:55 pm

hawkeye wrote:
lydian wrote:Rafa couldnt give a fig about being #4 or #40...if he can play anywhere near his normal level he'll be #2 or #3 in no time at all. You cant suppress talent.

Number two or three? Pftt! He was number one in the race for the first half of the season despite having physical problems. If he can play at his normal level why shouldn't he return to this same level?

Anyone can be #1 in the Race after the clay court season.

Once we reached the first Major Slam of the year, Nadal's limitations were ruthlessly exposed by Lukas Rosol. Given his poor record in North America and derisory results at The World Finals, if Nadal doesn't win the small-time tournaments he often does, like Roland Garros and Monte Carlo, he'll fall to his natural ranking around #15-20.

After all, no matter how much time you spend fishing in the Bay of Mallorca, you can't catch talent.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by User 774433 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:59 pm


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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by hawkeye on Thu Nov 15, 2012 12:03 am

Ha ha! Of course everyone knows that anyone can be number one in the race after the clay court season. Sigh... I would do it myself next year if I thought it was worth the effort.

Also strange but last time I looked the ATP didn't play on clay for half the year.


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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by LuvSports! on Thu Nov 15, 2012 12:07 am

ohhhh Moooooddddddeeerratttoorrssssssss

get rid of this clown will ya please Smile

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by Spaghetti-Hans on Thu Nov 15, 2012 12:10 am

hawkeye wrote:Ha ha! Of course everyone knows that anyone can be number one in the race after the clay court season. Sigh... I would do it myself next year if I thought it was worth the effort.

Also strange but last time I looked the ATP didn't play on clay for half the year.


Don't bother wasting your time on the red muck unless the Moon Gods are watching over you, much like they watch over Nadal.

Anyway, clay court tennis is far too easy. Plus Federer doesn't take it seriously, so the titles have no value.


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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by User 774433 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 12:14 am

Yeah...

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by LuvSports! on Thu Nov 15, 2012 4:44 pm

latest update on rafa

Matt Cronin ‏@TennisReporters
Toni Nadal tells @sebastianfest Rafa will resume training next week. Rafa in Prague with DC team and will do some TV there

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by Haddie-nuff on Thu Nov 15, 2012 4:46 pm

Yep Toni doing the talking again... ILL wait till I hear it from Rafa

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by Henman Bill on Sun Nov 18, 2012 8:04 pm

Thanks for the interesting article. Is there any case for seeding Rafa top-4 anyway at FO, even if 5th, or is definately going to go on the rankings?

If Rafa is physically fit and mentally committed, and plays a full 2013, I would see him getting back to number 2 before the end of the year.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by Haddie-nuff on Sun Nov 18, 2012 8:26 pm

LuvSports! wrote:latest update on rafa

Matt Cronin ‏@TennisReporters
Toni Nadal tells @sebastianfest Rafa will resume training next week. Rafa in Prague with DC team and will do some TV there


Laugh a minute.. see what I mean about Uncle T talking too much again.?? Rafa was at home watching the DC on his tv in Mallorca !!!!!

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by Haddie-nuff on Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:47 am

But at last I HAVE SEEN IT WITH MY OWN EYES... a photo of Rafa on the training court Yahoo

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by rafa fan forever on Tue Nov 20, 2012 12:08 pm

Yes Yes Yes

Waited for this moment for months

http://www.tennisworldusa.org/Nadal-resumes-court-training--articolo7071.html

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by carrieg4 on Tue Nov 20, 2012 3:52 pm

Haddie-nuff wrote:But at last I HAVE SEEN IT WITH MY OWN EYES... a photo of Rafa on the training court Yahoo

Good to hear. Will be great to have him back thumbsup

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by Haddie-nuff on Tue Nov 20, 2012 4:03 pm

I agree carriege its good news.. I have just one concern and that is that he does it at his own pace and NOT Uncle T´s. As Rafa said some time ago.. one step at a time. But that being said I shall be so please to see him grace the courts again I think we have all missed him in our different ways Wink

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by carrieg4 on Tue Nov 20, 2012 4:14 pm

Haddie-nuff wrote:I agree carriege its good news.. I have just one concern and that is that he does it at his own pace and NOT Uncle T´s. As Rafa said some time ago.. one step at a time. But that being said I shall be so please to see him grace the courts again I think we have all missed him in our different ways Wink

Yep, one step at a time. The main thing is to look after his body.

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by emancipator on Tue Nov 20, 2012 4:27 pm

Haddie-nuff wrote:I agree carriege its good news.. I have just one concern and that is that he does it at his own pace and NOT Uncle T´s. As Rafa said some time ago.. one step at a time. But that being said I shall be so please to see him grace the courts again I think we have all missed him in our different ways Wink

He's not 10 years old anymore.

I'm sure he'll return when he feels ready regardless of what uncle Toni feels. In any case I'm sure uncle tony is not planning on taking any unnecessary risks.

Good luck to him,

ghost

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by Haddie-nuff on Tue Nov 20, 2012 4:44 pm

emancipator wrote:
Haddie-nuff wrote:I agree carriege its good news.. I have just one concern and that is that he does it at his own pace and NOT Uncle T´s. As Rafa said some time ago.. one step at a time. But that being said I shall be so please to see him grace the courts again I think we have all missed him in our different ways Wink

He's not 10 years old anymore.

I'm sure he'll return when he feels ready regardless of what uncle Toni feels. In any case I'm sure uncle tony is not planning on taking any unnecessary risks.

Good luck to him,

ghost


I dont need to be reminded how old he is. thank you. But Uncle T has a nasty habit of trying to get his own way and talks too much. Its Uncle T that does most of the talking to the press you will notice ... not Rafa. So I will stick by what Ive said and hope that he is not pressurised to doing more than he is able.


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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by harrpau7 on Tue Nov 20, 2012 5:53 pm

I see Nadal being ranked number 5 by Wimbledon, but then he would easily get back to number 4 after Wimbledon.

If Nadal was number 5 for Wimbledon, it could mean that he would be seeded to face (in no order) Murray, Federer and Djokovic from the QF's onwards! Brutal!

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Re: Nadal in 2013

Post by Haddie-nuff on Tue Nov 20, 2012 5:59 pm

We can only hope that Rafa is back and fighting fit by that time.. sounds pretty awesome doesn´t it ???

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