World Rugby Rankings

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World Rugby Rankings

Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Fri 16 Nov 2012, 6:35 pm

Current World Rankings

IRB Rankings at
http://www.worldrugby.org/rankings#mru

Fixtures according to http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/fixtures/_/league/180659/

Best odds for each result category from a range of bookies as at http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations

Code:


Saturday, March 18

Scotland v   Italy   12:30 PM   --   BT Murrayfield, Edinburgh

sco (on 82.18 points) at home -vs- ita (on 71.17 points)

If sco win by 1-15 points   0.000   82.18   71.17   No
If sco win by more than 15   0.000   82.18   71.17   No
If result is a draw   1.000   81.18   72.17   No
If ita win by 1-15 points   2.000   80.18   73.17   No
If ita win by more than 15   3.000   79.18   74.17   No

Scotland (1/16)
Draw (66/1)
Italy (15/1)

France v    Wales   2:45 PM   --   Stade de France, Saint-Denis

fra (on 81.21 points) at home -vs- wal (on 82.16 points)

If fra win by 1-15 points   0.795   82.00   81.36   Yes
If fra win by more than 15   1.193   82.40   80.97   Yes
If result is a draw   0.205   81.00   82.36   No
If wal win by 1-15 points   1.205   80.00   83.36   No
If wal win by more than 15   1.807   79.40   83.97   No

France (8/13)
14:45TV
   

France (8/13)
Draw (25/1)
Wales (13/8)

Ireland v    England   5:00 PM   --   Aviva Stadium, Dublin

ire (on 83.18 points) at home -vs- eng (on 91.02 points)

If ire win by 1-15 points   1.484   84.66   89.54   No
If ire win by more than 15   2.226   85.41   88.79   No
If result is a draw   0.484   83.66   90.54   No
If eng win by 1-15 points   0.516   82.66   91.54   No
If eng win by more than 15   0.774   82.41   91.79   No

Ireland (6/4)
Draw (25/1)
England (9/13)

Original thread:
http://www.606v2.com/t12724p950-irb-world-rankings-part-1


Sources:
Fixtures : http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/fixtures/4776295.stm
IRB Rankings : http://www.espn.co.uk/scrum/rugby/match/fixtures/international.html
Rankings explanation : http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html
Rankings archive : http://www.irb.com/rankings/archive/index.html
Fixtures : http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/current/match/scores/recent.html

Online calculator (Courtesy of Robbo277 (thanks)) : http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh


Last edited by Portnoy's Complaint on Tue 14 Mar 2017, 12:12 pm; edited 122 times in total

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Ozzy3213 on Fri 16 Nov 2012, 6:39 pm

Have made this a sticky and locked and unstickied the old one. Hope that's ok? Let me know if not, and I'll unsticky it.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Fri 16 Nov 2012, 6:44 pm

From the previous thread

Ozzy3213 wrote:I am sat around a fair bit today waiting for stuff to
be done, and being bored I have been through the fixtures for the rest
of the AI's and if all games go with what the bookies reckon then prior
to the final whistle in Wales game against Australia the rankings look
like this...


1 NEW ZEALND 93.79
2 SOUTH AFRICA 85.14
3 FRANCE 84.99
4 AUSTRALIA 84.80
5 ENGLAND 84.15
6 WALES 80.79
7 IRELAND 79.82
8 ARGENTINA 79.10
9 SCOTLAND 77.99
10 SAMOA 76.79
11 ITALY 75.76
12 TONGA 73.65


...
meaning that England will be reliant on the Welsh beating the Aussies
to secure a top seeding. I may have to spend a bit of time cheering for
the boyos were that situation to arise!!!

How he decided the winning margins were calculated, I cant say - probably a win by the standard 0-15 pts.

Anyway, thanks Ozzy

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Ozzy3213 on Fri 16 Nov 2012, 6:49 pm

That was exactly how I calculated it GT. I say calculated, more input into an online calculator that I found a link to.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by wales606 on Fri 16 Nov 2012, 9:27 pm

Wales are in the Poopie.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Cyril on Fri 16 Nov 2012, 9:28 pm

How much of a drop are we talking here?

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Biltong on Fri 16 Nov 2012, 9:29 pm

Down to 8th.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pot Hale on Fri 16 Nov 2012, 9:30 pm

Wales losing means they drop below Ireland into 8th spot. Ireland move up one without playing a ranking match this weekend.

Ireland should drop a bouquet or two into Warren's house tomorrow morning.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pot Hale on Fri 16 Nov 2012, 9:55 pm

Samoa's win moves them up some points to 78.79 and into 9th spot. Scotland down to 10th. Wales drop two ranks to 8th. Ireland and Argentina move up one each to 7th and 6th.

Ireland don't have a ranking match this weekend so they'll be happy.


1(1) NEW ZEALAND 92.91
2(3) SOUTH AFRICA 85.50
3(2) AUSTRALIA 84.82
4(5) FRANCE 84.58
5(4) ENGLAND 83.09
6(7) ARGENTINA 80.29
7(8) IRELAND 79.04
8(6) WALES 78.95
9(10) SAMOA 78.79
10(9) SCOTLAND 77.97
11(11) ITALY 76.61
12(12) TONGA 74.22
13(13) CANADA 71.39
14(14) FIJI 70.60
15(16) JAPAN 68.89
16(15) GEORGIA 67.95
17(17) USA 67.15
18(18) ROMANIA 63.58
19(20) SPAIN 61.63
20(19) RUSSIA 61.51


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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Argie fan on Fri 16 Nov 2012, 10:23 pm

Wales had aspirations to enter the top four, and now have to take care not to be left out of the first eight
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by anotherworldofpain on Fri 16 Nov 2012, 11:11 pm

I got 78.17 taking Wales to 9th under Samoa. How did you arrive at 78.95?

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Fri 16 Nov 2012, 11:57 pm

By using a lovely, reliable Kiwi-based calculator, awop.
As referenced in the OP.

But thanks for the query.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler on Sat 17 Nov 2012, 8:20 am

Ozzy3213 wrote:That was exactly how I calculated it GT. I say calculated, more input into an online calculator that I found a link to.

If you get that bored again most bookies offer a handicap, the score that they think a team should win by.

The other way of doing this is to use the "if the games go as the rankings suggest" system.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pot Hale on Sat 17 Nov 2012, 3:28 pm

Current score lines

Italy 10-23 NZ - no change
Eng 14-11 - change
Scot 3-14 - change

Rankings As it stands:

1(1) NEW ZEALAND 92.91
2(3) SOUTH AFRICA 86.05
3(4) FRANCE 84.58
4(5) ENGLAND 83.96
5(3) AUSTRALIA 83.95
6(7) ARGENTINA 80.29
7(8) IRELAND 79.04
8(6) WALES 78.95
9(10) SAMOA 78.79
10(9) SCOTLAND 77.42
11(11) ITALY 76.61
12(12) TONGA 74.22
13(13) CANADA 71.39
14(14) FIJI 70.60
15(16) JAPAN 68.89
16(15) GEORGIA 67.95
17(17) USA 67.15
18(18) ROMANIA 63.58
19(20) SPAIN 61.63
20(19) RUSSIA 61.51


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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pot Hale on Sat 17 Nov 2012, 4:32 pm

Final scorelines

Eng 14-20 Aus - change
Ita 10-42 NZ - no change
Sco 10-21 SA - change

Rankings as they stand:


1(1) NEW ZEALAND 92.91
2(3) SOUTH AFRICA 86.05
3(2) AUSTRALIA 85.95
4(5) FRANCE 84.58
5(4) ENGLAND 81.96
6(7) ARGENTINA 80.29
7(8) IRELAND 79.04
8(6) WALES 78.95
9(10) SAMOA 78.79
10(9) SCOTLAND 77.42
11(11) ITALY 76.61
12(12) TONGA 74.22
13(13) CANADA 71.39
14(14) FIJI 70.60
15(16) JAPAN 68.89
16(15) GEORGIA 67.95
17(17) USA 67.15
18(18) ROMANIA 63.58
19(20) SPAIN 61.63
20(19) RUSSIA 61.51

England now in the bottom half of the rankings fight. If Argentina win tonight, they'll move ahead of England into 5th spot.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pete C (Kiwireddevil) on Sat 17 Nov 2012, 4:44 pm

If France win tonight England will need to beat both SA and NZ to get into the top 4.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by The Loaded Dog on Sat 17 Nov 2012, 4:52 pm

We can see the little fluffy Bok tail again, Kiwi. Very Happy

So if Argentina pull off a win (82.08-82.88) England could be 6th?


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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Biltong on Sat 17 Nov 2012, 4:54 pm

Laugh Can you smell anything from that close LB?
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by The Loaded Dog on Sat 17 Nov 2012, 4:57 pm

Just that musky pheromone smell mate... Laugh
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pot Hale on Sat 17 Nov 2012, 9:52 pm

France win 39-22


Rankings as they stand:


1(1) NEW ZEALAND 92.91
2(3) SOUTH AFRICA 86.05
3(2) AUSTRALIA 85.95
4(5) FRANCE 84.99
5(4) ENGLAND 81.96
6(7) ARGENTINA 79.88
7(8) IRELAND 79.04
8(6) WALES 78.95
9(10) SAMOA 78.79
10(9) SCOTLAND 77.42
11(11) ITALY 76.61
12(12) TONGA 74.22
13(13) CANADA 71.39
14(14) FIJI 70.60
15(16) JAPAN 68.89
16(15) GEORGIA 67.95
17(17) USA 67.15
18(18) ROMANIA 63.58
19(20) SPAIN 61.63
20(19) RUSSIA 61.51

So if Wales lose next week to New Zealand, no matter the score, they don't lose ranking points. If Samoa lose to France, they'll drop to 78.67 max.

The following week Wales play Aus. If they lose that one, they'll drop below Samoa in points.

However, Ireland play Argentina next week. If Ireland win by more than 15, Argentina will drop below Wales. If Ireland lose, and heavily, they would drop to 77.22 - lower than Scotland's current ranking in 10th spot.

France look to have secured 4th spot with tonight's win 17 point margin win. Only England beating South Africa and New Zealand are likely to dislodge them from it.

But there's still a few turns and twists in the rankings to come.

More fun next weekend.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Sun 18 Nov 2012, 9:53 am

Pot Hale's list (with adjustments for non-AI games affecting the top twenty) are included in the OP.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pot Hale on Sun 18 Nov 2012, 11:03 am

Wonder what the bookies think now of the remaining matches?

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by kiakahaaotearoa on Sun 18 Nov 2012, 11:32 am

Just out of curiosity how far would NZ go down the rankings if they lost to both Wales and England?

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pot Hale on Sun 18 Nov 2012, 12:02 pm

NZ would give up 2 or 3 points in losing to Wales.
And about 1.5 to 2 against England depending on SA result.

This would leave NZ on about 88.5/89.3 depending on margin wins.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by kiakahaaotearoa on Sun 18 Nov 2012, 12:06 pm

Cheers Pot. Going to be interesting to see how the final tables read.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pot Hale on Sun 18 Nov 2012, 12:15 pm

It would be nice to get one or two more ranking upsets.

Samoa to get second tier seeding would be a great outcome.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by kiakahaaotearoa on Sun 18 Nov 2012, 12:25 pm

Indeed and well deserved. Plenty of upsets still on the cards I feel. Took a hammering in the picks this week going for glory. Didn't pick the Samoa upset and placed all my faith in Scotland.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by anotherworldofpain on Sun 18 Nov 2012, 1:27 pm

I was temped to do the same Kia, I predicted SA v SCO would be within 7 and I was tempted to suggest a draw. Ultimately aside from the bizarre Adrian Strauss intercept it was on the cards.

I honestly didn't think SAM could upset WAL but I tipped it anyway in a fit of optimism, but I was stunned at how well their set piece went. I *really* wouldn't have predicted that.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Mon 19 Nov 2012, 12:17 pm

Just for the record this is the IRB's first attempt at the new rankings:
1(1) NZLNEW ZEALAND 92.91
2(2) RSASOUTH AFRICA 86.05
3(3) AUSAUSTRALIA 85.94
7(8) IREIRELAND 79.04
9(10) SAMSAMOA 78.79
10(9) SCOSCOTLAND 77.42
11(11) ITAITALY 76.61
14(14) FJIFIJI 70.60
15(15) JPNJAPAN 70.09
17(16) GEOGEORGIA 66.75

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by John Cregan on Mon 19 Nov 2012, 4:01 pm

As the Rugby Forums contain many highly knowledgeable contributers, can someone please explain how Wales won a Grand Slam in 2012, made the RWC semis in 2011, and are out ranked by both England and Ireland??


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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Biltong on Mon 19 Nov 2012, 4:09 pm

John, firstly you have to look at the IRB rankings before the RWC

England 82.89
Wales 80.79

After the RWC

England 81.58
Wales 80.18

Why?

England lost Only 1 match during the world cup.
wales lost to Australia, South Africa and France, and then again after the world cup in November they lost again against Australia.

That brought their ranking down to 79.61 in December of last year.

During the Six narions Wales only won one matche more than England in the Six nations.


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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler on Mon 19 Nov 2012, 4:12 pm

John Cregan wrote:As the Rugby Forums contain many highly knowledgeable contributers, can someone please explain how Wales won a Grand Slam in 2012, made the RWC semis in 2011, and are out ranked by both England and Ireland??


Have you seen how many games theyve lost recently?

Aside form making the semi final their results at the world cup were actuallyu not that great anyway....they beat Ireland and who else?
Paper rock scissors...wales have done well against NH sides for 12 months...longer term only avergaely well. Their record against SH opposition has been woeful for several years.
yes they had a good run for 6 months, but surrounding that they have had two bad runs of results.
England conversly have plodded along at roughly the same level, picking up odd results against the top 3 or 4...other times losing to the mid table teams but never getting beaten weak teams (unless you include Wales)
Ireland ..maybe slightly more mystifying but its not so long since they themsleves were grand slam winners and again have actually picked up a win against Aus ...so if we are playing the " yeah butwho won las time they plaed " game surely Ireland should be ranked second?

The rankings are not a list of who beat who last ... they are an indication of the results of a team over a period of time, and base don that historical data how they are most likely to perform going forward.

Wales are problematic because their form and ability fluctuates massively, but really the number of games they have won over the last 2/3 years is nothing to write home about.
And looking at the way theyve played recently can you say they dserve to be ranked higher than say ...Samoa?

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Mon 19 Nov 2012, 5:16 pm

OP refreshed for the weekend.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by wales606 on Mon 19 Nov 2012, 5:19 pm

So Wales need a 15+ point win against NZ, England to lose and France to lose my 15+ pts to Samoa.

Then we will still need to beat Aus to overtake France into 4th.

EASY!...


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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Mon 19 Nov 2012, 5:27 pm

Piece of pish W606.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler on Mon 19 Nov 2012, 5:30 pm

concentrate on cemeting your place in the top 12 for now 606 Wink

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by wales606 on Mon 19 Nov 2012, 5:35 pm

If France do win, we could probably still catch them by thrashing Aus... king
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by The Loaded Dog on Wed 21 Nov 2012, 11:08 am

We are bound to falter........................................ again. Smile
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Biltong on Wed 21 Nov 2012, 11:14 am

Linebreaker wrote:We are bound to falter........................................ again. Smile
Ditto. Sad
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by The Loaded Dog on Wed 21 Nov 2012, 11:24 am

We must keep positive however, my friend. Hard to do I know. Hug
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pot Hale on Sat 24 Nov 2012, 4:00 pm

Ireland's 16+ margin moves them up to 6th in the table and drops Argentina to 9th. Samoa move into the second tier.

Australia's squeaky win over Italy 22-19 and SA one point win over England leaves second and third as they are.

Scotland currently leading Tonga 15-13

Rankings as they stand:


1(1) NEW ZEALAND 92.91
2(2) SOUTH AFRICA 86.94
3(3) AUSTRALIA 86.31
4(4) FRANCE 84.99
5(5) ENGLAND 81.07
6(7) IRELAND 80.22
7(8) WALES 78.95
8(6) SAMOA 78.79
9(6) ARGENTINA 78.71
10(9) SCOTLAND 77.42
11(11) ITALY 76.24
12(12) TONGA 74.22
13(13) CANADA 71.39
14(14) FIJI 70.60
15(16) JAPAN 68.89
16(15) GEORGIA 67.95
17(17) USA 67.15
18(18) ROMANIA 63.58
19(20) SPAIN 61.63
20(19) RUSSIA 61.51
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by wales606 on Sat 24 Nov 2012, 4:35 pm

Pot Hale wrote:Ireland's 16+ margin moves them up to 6th in the table and drops Argentina to 9th.

Are Argentina playing again?

Does this mean Wales are safe in the top8?
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler on Sat 24 Nov 2012, 5:09 pm

No thats it for Argentiona. Since the 4th AI is out of the release window and their players are pretty much all Euro based theyd be playing it with the womens 7s team

Wales get out of jail free....

Odd to think Argentina were 2nd this point 4 years ago but everyones talking about how much theyve improved......whilst dropping 7 places in the rankings and getting shat on by a side that recently lost 60-0

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pot Hale on Sat 24 Nov 2012, 5:16 pm

Well if Samoa beat France they move above Wales and Ireland to 6th.
If they lose they move to 78.71 or 78.67

Argentina are on 78.71.

If Wales lose to NZ. No change.

if Wales lose to Australia.... They drop below Argentina and Samoa on either 78.39 or 78.10.

So they need to win one of the matches to stay in second tier.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler on Sat 24 Nov 2012, 5:27 pm

Sorry gosh yes forgot that the 4th games could change things again

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Dave. on Sat 24 Nov 2012, 5:58 pm

Are Samoa safe in the second tier?

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pot Hale on Sat 24 Nov 2012, 6:09 pm

Dave. wrote:Are Samoa safe in the second tier?

Well if Samoa beat France they move above Wales and Ireland to 6th.
If they lose they move to 78.71 or 78.67

Argentina are on 78.71.

If Wales lose to NZ. No change.

if Wales lose to Australia.... They drop below Argentina and Samoa on either 78.39 or 78.10.

So they need to win one of the matches to stay in second tier.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Dave. on Sat 24 Nov 2012, 6:12 pm

See if Argentina and Samoa are tied on ranking points....which it what will happen if they lose by less than 15, who gets the higher ranking?

Samoa beating France though!

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pot Hale on Sat 24 Nov 2012, 6:13 pm

Tekori gets a second try for Samoa

Fra 10 -14 Samoa

Samoa move to 6th if it stays that way.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by kiakahaaotearoa on Sat 24 Nov 2012, 6:14 pm

Come on Manu Samoa! A double win for the Pacific Islands and it'll be a proud day for them.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

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