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Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Fri 16 Nov 2012, 6:35 pm

First topic message reminder :

Current World Rankings

IRB Rankings at
http://www.worldrugby.org/rankings#mru

Fixtures according to http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/fixtures/_/league/180659/

Best odds for each result category from a range of bookies as at http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations

Code:


Saturday, March 18

Scotland v Italy 12:30 PM -- BT Murrayfield, Edinburgh

sco (on 82.18 points) at home -vs- ita (on 71.17 points)

If sco win by 1-15 points 0.000 82.18 71.17 No
If sco win by more than 15 0.000 82.18 71.17 No
If result is a draw 1.000 81.18 72.17 No
If ita win by 1-15 points 2.000 80.18 73.17 No
If ita win by more than 15 3.000 79.18 74.17 No

Scotland (1/16)
Draw (66/1)
Italy (15/1)

France v Wales 2:45 PM -- Stade de France, Saint-Denis

fra (on 81.21 points) at home -vs- wal (on 82.16 points)

If fra win by 1-15 points 0.795 82.00 81.36 Yes
If fra win by more than 15 1.193 82.40 80.97 Yes
If result is a draw 0.205 81.00 82.36 No
If wal win by 1-15 points 1.205 80.00 83.36 No
If wal win by more than 15 1.807 79.40 83.97 No

France (8/13)
14:45TV
 

France (8/13)
Draw (25/1)
Wales (13/8)

Ireland v England 5:00 PM -- Aviva Stadium, Dublin

ire (on 83.18 points) at home -vs- eng (on 91.02 points)

If ire win by 1-15 points 1.484 84.66 89.54 No
If ire win by more than 15 2.226 85.41 88.79 No
If result is a draw 0.484 83.66 90.54 No
If eng win by 1-15 points 0.516 82.66 91.54 No
If eng win by more than 15 0.774 82.41 91.79 No

Ireland (6/4)
Draw (25/1)
England (9/13)

Original thread:
http://www.606v2.com/t12724p950-irb-world-rankings-part-1


Sources:
Fixtures : http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/fixtures/4776295.stm
IRB Rankings : http://www.espn.co.uk/scrum/rugby/match/fixtures/international.html
Rankings explanation : http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html
Rankings archive : http://www.irb.com/rankings/archive/index.html
Fixtures : http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/current/match/scores/recent.html

Online calculator (Courtesy of Robbo277 (thanks)) : http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh


Last edited by Portnoy's Complaint on Tue 14 Mar 2017, 12:12 pm; edited 122 times in total

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Post by SecretFly on Mon 10 Mar 2014, 4:27 pm

They're not even scarily accurate...they are precisely accurate. I never have a grudge with them...unless I'm just having fun with them.

They don't care about opinions or hunches...they simply tell the truth of where sides generally are in ability as proven by games rather than hearsay

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Post by HammerofThunor on Mon 10 Mar 2014, 4:53 pm

They're very good at giving an indication of where a team is in relationship to others. Obviously things like mass injuries, lots of players on a Lions tour etc can result in blips but if these really are blips they soon dissappear.

As I said the position itself isn't very important (if one team is ahead by 0.01 ranking points they're basically the same).

I usually put them into bands rather than specific ranks. Roughly so that one game wouldn't effect them too much (so 2 point gap is significant).

At the moment

1. All Blacks
2. South African
3. Australia and England
4. France, Ireland and Wales
5. Samoa, Argentina and Scotland

etc

I'm not sure if England are out in front but I suppose if you go back to that win against New Zealand they've only lost to Wales (hammered), New Zealand and France in the last 19 games.

Funnily enough New Zealand could hammer them in every game but it won't have any impact because New Zealand will be more than 10 points ahead.

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Post by Ozzy3213 on Mon 10 Mar 2014, 4:57 pm

England are in that position where wins at home against the NH sides do little for us in terms of ranking points. The only way for us to increase our points is to win big away in France, Ireland or Wales, or to beat one of the SANZAR nations.
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Post by SecretFly on Mon 10 Mar 2014, 5:03 pm

HammerofThunor wrote:They're very good at giving an indication of where a team is in relationship to others. Obviously things like mass injuries, lots of players on a Lions tour etc can result in blips but if these really are blips they soon dissappear.


I get those points but in real terms, the team on the field on any given day is your declared representation for that game and must be prepared to give or take what comes of it.  
The rankings don't care about who is injured or who is going through a dip in form...it doesn't wait around for the two sides to provide an ideal side each.  And you'd be a long time waiting, as there are very few occasions when any coach will admit that he's amassed a perfect 15.

So the rankings only concern themselves with games played and results.... Players? - they don't care about them.  I like the coldness of the process, because the rest of us bring enough heat to rugby already.

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Post by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler on Tue 11 Mar 2014, 8:13 am

I think the points exchange system works very well. If you compare it to the soccerball system where your rating can drop simply for playing low ranked teams regardless of the result its ruddy genius.

Yes it cant account for the specific conditions of a game, yet retains a very high "expected result" predictions ratio. As Fly says it also breaks apart the paper rock scissors arguments about who the most succesfull by combing the short term and long term results in a dispassionate raw way. And as Hunor said as well its ratings rather than ranking position we should focus on for seeing what the table is really telling us.

Ireland have a chance to right the wrong of being ranked below France at the weekend. If indeed it is a wrong, or perhaps France will turn up and show that the ratings system hasnt been overly swayed by a team playing below itselfy but still winning.

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Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Fri 14 Mar 2014, 8:00 pm

Belatedly again. Sorry!, new OP.

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Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Sun 16 Mar 2014, 9:22 am

Ireland 5th
Wales 6th
France 7th
I believe (© Gibbo Enterprises)

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Post by SecretFly on Sun 16 Mar 2014, 10:15 am

Did we slip above France again?

Well good, if so. That bloody blood bath in Paris deserved some bounce in the charts if only for the effort required.

It means little... but then it also means quite a bit as I can recalibrate my IRB personally produced chart graphic to make it a bit neater looking in its upward curve for the month! Wink


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Post by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler on Sun 16 Mar 2014, 11:41 am

SecretFly wrote:Did we slip above France again?

Well good, if so.  That bloody blood bath in Paris deserved some bounce in the charts if only for the effort required.

It means little... but then it also means quite a bit as I can recalibrate my IRB personally produced chart graphic to make it a bit neater looking in its upward curve for the month! Wink


Yep wales leapfrogged (apologies) them too

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Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Mon 17 Mar 2014, 2:09 pm

New O.P.

Top 25 sides included for scoping the greasy pole challenges.

Apart from a couple of minor t20-ranking USA/Uruguay squabbles over RWC places, that's it until June.

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Post by thebandwagonsociety on Tue 18 Mar 2014, 10:14 am

Who are the home nations playing in the summer tours? Ireland being away to Argentina will they manage to improve their points before the autumn?

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Post by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler on Tue 18 Mar 2014, 11:20 am

Ill be honest, Ireland have a better chance of increasing their rating than England do, although if England do manage a win/draw they stand to gain a lot.
Assuming Argentina remain bobbins and Ireland bother to turn up then Ireland should win their games, Argentina having a + 3 ratings home boost which as it stands now would put them opnly 3 behind Ireland ...enough that even a small win would boost them.
England getting hammered in NZ may not lose them points though, given the huge disparity in current ratings with the home weighting.
Tl/dr
I dont think Ireland can catch England over the summer, but theres a strong chance they will close the gap to pretty much nothing unless England do manage a win.

Which is probably about right as the balance of power and form stands right?

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Post by GunsGerms on Tue 18 Mar 2014, 11:23 am

Yep.

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Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Wed 19 Mar 2014, 10:19 am

New temporary OP.

Not right with interim games to be played.

But 6Ns teams included to whet any appetites.

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Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Thu 05 Jun 2014, 10:10 am

As promised I'm back temporarily nose to the grindstone during my summer furlough.
A new OP.

It would be interesting if inter-European match rankings were extracted so that the progress of the T2 nations compared with their neighbours could be analysed.

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Post by SecretFly on Thu 05 Jun 2014, 10:12 am

No Wales tour???!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Port, you IS in trouble.  I'm outta here before the fun starts.

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Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Thu 05 Jun 2014, 11:37 am

Starts 14th June, Fly.
This OP covers this week.

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Post by SecretFly on Thu 05 Jun 2014, 11:41 am

Oh you're safe then. Glad to hear it. You're a nice fella and I'd hate to think what them irrate Welsh lads would do to you if you missed them.

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Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Thu 05 Jun 2014, 11:48 am

I'll miss Ireland out next time on purpose and await the resultant shenanigans  idea  Wink .

[ed] Oh, and btw, ALLEZ LES BLEUS!

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Post by SecretFly on Thu 05 Jun 2014, 11:56 am

I'll be first with up with the baseball bat! It'll be nothing personal though - just biz. Wink

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Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Sun 08 Jun 2014, 10:40 am

Disappointing results and/or performances from all the European sides.
New OP on MonWednesday. (oops)

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Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Wed 11 Jun 2014, 8:17 am

New OP a bit late.

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Post by Pal Joey on Wed 11 Jun 2014, 10:17 am

Still a clear top 4, mate.  Hug 
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Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Mon 16 Jun 2014, 6:03 pm

New OP. Look at how far Italy have sunk down the T2 plug hole!

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Post by Biltong on Mon 16 Jun 2014, 6:50 pm

These June test series have no benefit for SA as far as world ranking points are concerned, we get nothing for beating Wales or Scotland at home.
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Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Mon 16 Jun 2014, 6:53 pm

Nor, to be fair, do the All Blacks, Bilt.

From significantly stronger opposition (on paper).

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Post by HammerofThunor on Mon 16 Jun 2014, 7:00 pm

Biltong wrote:These June test series have no benefit for SA as far as world ranking points are concerned, we get nothing for beating Wales or Scotland at home.

Well they have. If England had toured there you'd have lost points when we beat you Smile

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Post by Biltong on Mon 16 Jun 2014, 7:02 pm

HammerofThunor wrote:
Biltong wrote:These June test series have no benefit for SA as far as world ranking points are concerned, we get nothing for beating Wales or Scotland at home.

Well they have. If England had toured there you'd have lost points when we beat you Smile

They have had plenty of opportunity since 2006, but sadly have failed. Very Happy
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Post by HammerofThunor on Mon 16 Jun 2014, 8:12 pm

Biltong wrote:
HammerofThunor wrote:
Biltong wrote:These June test series have no benefit for SA as far as world ranking points are concerned, we get nothing for beating Wales or Scotland at home.

Well they have. If England had toured there you'd have lost points when we beat you Smile

They have had plenty of opportunity since  2006, but sadly have failed. Very Happy

You keep catching us on our off days  Cool 

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Post by yappysnap on Wed 18 Jun 2014, 8:55 pm

So if England and Wales win this weekend we go to second in the rankings right?

When was the last time we were ever dining at the top table like that? I may have to go for a lay down if we do...

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Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Wed 18 Jun 2014, 9:11 pm

yappysnap wrote:So if England and Wales win this weekend we go to second in the rankings right?

When was the last time we were ever dining at the top table like that? I may have to go for a lay down if we do...
http://ofwllc.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/flyingpig.jpg

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Post by blackcanelion on Thu 19 Jun 2014, 7:20 am

Here's the worst possible assessment for the RC nations. Assuming big losses for everyone.
1. NZ 90.81
2. ENG 88.68
3. SA 86.31
4. AUS 83.94
5. WAL 83.7
6. IRE 83.44
7. FRA 83.01
8. SCO 78.35

12. ARG 73.4 more or less

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Post by kiakahaaotearoa on Thu 19 Jun 2014, 11:09 am

Someone must be winning though to have a big loss. I don't want to go back to the 80s. I've burnt all my colourful clothes. I like the simplicity and clean lines of the 90s: black just looks better than the rest...

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Post by blackcanelion on Mon 18 Aug 2014, 7:56 am

Only change from the weekend is an approx 0.4 ranking point exchange between NZ and Australia.

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Post by blackcanelion on Mon 06 Oct 2014, 5:19 am

Haven't bothered to check the rankings. I think the Boks are a clear 2nd now and the Pumas are up to about 10th. I think the rankngs are a bit hard on teams like the Pumas and Samoans. I suspect that they both would lie within the top 8 or 10 if it were a bit more of a level playing field. Pretty certain the Pumas should be on a par with the likes of France, Ireland and Wales.

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Post by GunsGerms on Mon 06 Oct 2014, 1:16 pm

England leap frog Australia to go into third.

Ireland are currently a little better than Argentina Blackcanelion. We have won our last 5 games against them and we beat them 2-0 in our summer tour to Argentina this year. We are also current 6 nations champions. That said Argentina could beat anyone bar NZ I reckon.

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Post by fa0019 on Mon 06 Oct 2014, 1:20 pm

Scotland also beat Argentina in the summer so not sure if the side was a little lightweight pre RC.

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Post by Cyril on Tue 07 Oct 2014, 11:36 am

I think it's more a case of the Aussies being a bit clueless than Argentina being that good.

Nice to see England back in the top 3.

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Post by blackcanelion on Tue 07 Oct 2014, 12:16 pm

My point about Argentina and Samoa is not that they are actually ranked in top 8 or so. More that I think they probably would be if it were a level playing field. To my mind a team like Argentina lies so low as much because of a lack of access to players and the need to rest players playing club rugby in the NH comps.

The Argentina/Scotland game is a prime example. Argentina had 1 definite 1st team starter (Sanchez at 10) and 2 probable starters (Amorosino and Montero) in the backline. That's it. The majority of the team play club rugby in Argentina. There are 2 players in the forwards contracted to super 15 franchises and 2 players in the backs contracted to European clubs. I'm not sure I've seen another country put out a side this weak relative to their full strength side. It's unfortunate, but they're having to field pretty weak teams in November and June. I think the RC is the only time we see their true potential.

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Post by SecretFly on Tue 07 Oct 2014, 12:39 pm

Cyril wrote:I think it's more a case of the Aussies being a bit clueless than Argentina being that good.

Nice to see England back in the top 3.

That's the easiest day's work the lads ever got. Didn't even have to kit out for it. This Lancaster guy certainly has all the moves. The Aussie's didn't see it coming!

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Post by Cyril on Tue 07 Oct 2014, 12:40 pm

SecretFly wrote:
Cyril wrote:I think it's more a case of the Aussies being a bit clueless than Argentina being that good.

Nice to see England back in the top 3.

That's the easiest day's work the lads ever got.  Didn't even have to kit out for it.  This Lancaster guy certainly has all the moves.  The Aussie's didn't see it coming!
Aye. Bloodless coups are the best.

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Post by blackcanelion on Mon 13 Oct 2014, 4:26 am

Aussies (4th: 85.07 pts) can jump ahead of England (3rd: 85.68 pts)  if they beat NZ next weekend. SA (2nd: 90.41 pts) can't overtake NZ (1st: 92.60 pts) nor can Ireland (5th: 83.44pts) overtake Australia.

                   Aus           NZ
Aus by 1-15   86.52        91.15
Aus by 15+    87.25        90.42
draw             85.52        92.15
NZ by 1-15    84.52        93.15
NZ by 15+     84.25        93.42

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Post by SecretFly on Mon 13 Oct 2014, 10:33 am

blackcanelion wrote:Aussies (4th: 85.07 pts) can jump ahead of England (3rd: 85.68 pts)  if they beat NZ next weekend. SA (2nd: 90.41 pts) can't overtake NZ (1st: 92.60 pts) nor can Ireland (5th: 83.44pts) overtake Australia.

                   Aus           NZ
Aus by 1-15   86.52        91.15
Aus by 15+    87.25        90.42
draw             85.52        92.15
NZ by 1-15    84.52        93.15
NZ by 15+     84.25        93.42

If we did a quick weekend trip to Turkmenistan and played their guys three times on the one day??? Could we overtake Australia then?

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Post by Pal Joey on Mon 13 Oct 2014, 10:36 am

Only if Australia loses to Nepal in the mid-week match.
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Post by HammerofThunor on Mon 13 Oct 2014, 10:36 am

Only if you beat them.

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Post by SecretFly on Mon 13 Oct 2014, 10:41 am

HammerofThunor wrote:Only if you beat them.

I was waiting for that one....


...and old friend from way back

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Post by HammerofThunor on Mon 13 Oct 2014, 11:43 am

Happy to oblige. I was going to work out the exact point switch but couldn't be bothered and went with a guess.

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Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Thu 06 Nov 2014, 9:49 pm

After the SIs:

07  July  2014
Code:
1(1) NEW ZEALAND 93.81
2(2) SOUTH AFRICA 89.34
3(3) AUSTRALIA 86.94
4(4) ENGLAND 85.68
5(5) IRELAND 83.44
6(6) WALES 80.70
7(7) FRANCE 80.01
8(8) SCOTLAND 77.78
9(9) SAMOA 76.59
10(10) JAPAN 75.39
11(11) FIJI 74.56
12(12) ARGENTINA 73.98
13(13) TONGA 72.58
14(14) ITALY 70.92
15(15) GEORGIA 70.46
16(16) ROMANIA 68.42
17(17) CANADA 68.01
18(18) USA 67.30
19(19) URUGUAY 62.89
20(20) RUSSIA 62.06

Before the AIs

03  November  2014
Code:
1(1) NEW ZEALAND 93.15 (=)
2(2) SOUTH AFRICA 90.41 (=)
3(3) ENGLAND 85.68 (+1)
4(4) AUSTRALIA 84.53 (-1)
5(5) IRELAND 83.44 (=)
6(6) WALES 80.70 (=)
7(7) FRANCE 80.01 (=)
8(8) SCOTLAND 77.75 (=)
9(9) SAMOA 76.35 (=)
10(10) ARGENTINA 75.97 (+2)
11(11) JAPAN 75.63 (-1)
12(12) FIJI 74.58 (-1)
13(13) TONGA 72.83 (=)
14(14) ITALY 70.92 (=)
15(15) GEORGIA 70.46 (=)
16(16) ROMANIA 68.42 (=)
17(17) CANADA 67.77 (=)
18(18) USA 67.30 (=)
19(19) URUGUAY 63.58 (=)
20(20) RUSSIA 62.29 (=)

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Post by GunsGerms on Fri 07 Nov 2014, 2:25 pm

Ireland have a pretty good chance of over taking Australia is they beat SA. Fingers crossed.

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Post by Pal Joey on Sun 09 Nov 2014, 1:11 am

Unfortunately not to be.
Good win from Ireland though. Perhaps one of their greatest ever.
Nice to see the Wallabies winning run against Wales continue as well.
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