World Rugby Rankings

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World Rugby Rankings

Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Fri Nov 16, 2012 6:35 pm

First topic message reminder :

Current World Rankings

IRB Rankings at
http://www.worldrugby.org/rankings#mru

Fixtures according to http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/fixtures/_/league/180659/

Best odds for each result category from a range of bookies as at http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations

Code:


Saturday, March 18

Scotland v   Italy   12:30 PM   --   BT Murrayfield, Edinburgh

sco (on 82.18 points) at home -vs- ita (on 71.17 points)

If sco win by 1-15 points   0.000   82.18   71.17   No
If sco win by more than 15   0.000   82.18   71.17   No
If result is a draw   1.000   81.18   72.17   No
If ita win by 1-15 points   2.000   80.18   73.17   No
If ita win by more than 15   3.000   79.18   74.17   No

Scotland (1/16)
Draw (66/1)
Italy (15/1)

France v    Wales   2:45 PM   --   Stade de France, Saint-Denis

fra (on 81.21 points) at home -vs- wal (on 82.16 points)

If fra win by 1-15 points   0.795   82.00   81.36   Yes
If fra win by more than 15   1.193   82.40   80.97   Yes
If result is a draw   0.205   81.00   82.36   No
If wal win by 1-15 points   1.205   80.00   83.36   No
If wal win by more than 15   1.807   79.40   83.97   No

France (8/13)
14:45TV
   

France (8/13)
Draw (25/1)
Wales (13/8)

Ireland v    England   5:00 PM   --   Aviva Stadium, Dublin

ire (on 83.18 points) at home -vs- eng (on 91.02 points)

If ire win by 1-15 points   1.484   84.66   89.54   No
If ire win by more than 15   2.226   85.41   88.79   No
If result is a draw   0.484   83.66   90.54   No
If eng win by 1-15 points   0.516   82.66   91.54   No
If eng win by more than 15   0.774   82.41   91.79   No

Ireland (6/4)
Draw (25/1)
England (9/13)

Original thread:
http://www.606v2.com/t12724p950-irb-world-rankings-part-1


Sources:
Fixtures : http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/fixtures/4776295.stm
IRB Rankings : http://www.espn.co.uk/scrum/rugby/match/fixtures/international.html
Rankings explanation : http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html
Rankings archive : http://www.irb.com/rankings/archive/index.html
Fixtures : http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/current/match/scores/recent.html

Online calculator (Courtesy of Robbo277 (thanks)) : http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh


Last edited by Portnoy's Complaint on Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:12 pm; edited 122 times in total

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pot Hale on Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:55 am

I would love if Scotland got to 4th ranking.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:06 pm

World rankings after weekend

1 NEW ZEALAND 94.78
2 ENGLAND 91.01
3 AUSTRALIA 86.35
4 IRELAND 83.18(-1.00)
5 SCOTLAND 82.18
6(+1) WALES 82.16(1.00)
7(-1) SOUTH AFRICA 81.79
8 FRANCE 81.21(0.64)
9 ARGENTINA 79.91
10 FIJI 76.46
11 JAPAN 74.23
12 GEORGIA 74.14
13 TONGA 71.94
14(+1) SAMOA 71.25
15(-1) ITALY 71.17(-0.64)
Possible changes after next w/end
Top 3 rankings unchanged regardless of England/Ireland match
Ireland stay in 4th unless they lose and Wales wins - Ireland swop places with Wales
Scotland stay with current ranking points - will drop 1 place if Wales win or if France win by > 15pts
Wales - win puts them in 4th or 5th position (depending on Ireland result) - loss means drop to 8th - cannot drop below Argentina
South Africa - remain in 7th regardless of results
France - will drop below Argentina if lose by >15 pts. Will climb to 5th if win by > 15pts. Win by 15 or less go to 6th, lose by 15 or less go to 8th
Italy - win will put them up to 13th, win by >15 they go up to 12th.

With regard to world cup seeding - Ireland competing with Wales for top group, France can drop to 3rd seeding group if they lose catastrophically - otherwise seeding groups are now decided.

PS - what about draws? - doesn't change above results significantly unless Ireland draw and Wales beat France by >15pts - then Ireland and Wales swop places. And an Italy draw puts them up to 13th
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by propdavid_london on Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:48 am

When are the seeding groups officially made?

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Scottrf on Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:17 am

propdavid_london wrote:When are the seeding groups officially made?
May.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Poorfour on Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:55 am

poissonrouge wrote:World rankings after weekend

1 NEW ZEALAND 94.78
2 ENGLAND 91.01
3 AUSTRALIA 86.35
4 IRELAND 83.18(-1.00)
5 SCOTLAND 82.18
6(+1) WALES 82.16(1.00)
7(-1) SOUTH AFRICA 81.79
8 FRANCE 81.21(0.64)
9 ARGENTINA 79.91
10 FIJI 76.46
11 JAPAN 74.23
12 GEORGIA 74.14
13 TONGA 71.94
14(+1) SAMOA 71.25
15(-1) ITALY 71.17(-0.64)
Possible changes after next w/end
Top 3 rankings unchanged regardless of England/Ireland match
Ireland stay in 4th unless they lose and Wales wins - Ireland swop places with Wales
Scotland stay with current ranking points - will drop 1 place if Wales win or if France win by > 15pts
Wales - win puts them in 4th or 5th position (depending on Ireland result) - loss means drop to 8th - cannot drop below Argentina
South Africa - remain in 7th regardless of results
France - will drop below Argentina if lose by >15 pts. Will climb to 5th if win by > 15pts. Win by 15 or less go to 6th, lose by 15 or less go to 8th
Italy - win will put them up to 13th, win by >15 they go up to 12th.

With regard to world cup seeding - Ireland competing with Wales for top group, France can drop to 3rd seeding group if they lose catastrophically - otherwise seeding groups are now decided.

PS - what about draws? - doesn't change above results significantly unless Ireland draw and Wales beat France by >15pts - then Ireland and Wales swop places. And an Italy draw puts them up to 13th

What's with the South Africa / Samoa thing? It's not showing on the IRB's site.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:17 pm

What's with the South Africa / Samoa thing? It's not showing on the IRB's site.
Not sure what you mean - tallies with IRB as far as I can see. There are some discrepancies at hundredths level - obviously IRB rounds fractions differently to my computer, but other than that it is the same.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Poorfour on Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:58 pm

poissonrouge wrote:
What's with the South Africa / Samoa thing? It's not showing on the IRB's site.
Not sure what you mean - tallies with IRB as far as I can see. There are some discrepancies at hundredths level - obviously IRB rounds fractions differently to my computer, but other than that it is the same.

It is now - it wasn't when I posted. Been a bit thick and only just worked out that South Africa and Samoa moving is because of Wales and Italy gaining and losing points.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:13 pm

New OP

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Gooseberry on Wed Mar 15, 2017 7:57 am

The much maligned ranking system has once again acted as a pretty relaible indicator of victors and margins for the 6 nations. If you include the +3 home wieghting then only one game hasnt gone the way the pre match rankings had suggested, and all the games with a +10 or greater ratings differnetial have been won by 15 points plus.
Wales Ireland is the only game to have bucked the rankings predictions so far.

Using that approach we come to the startling conclusion that England should beat Ireland in a competitive game
France should beat Wales in a close game
And Scotland should add further embaressment to Italys campaign.

Which is what most people would predict as the likely outcomes anyway. But its still a thing. The curveball may be France ripping up their team sheet as they have a habit of doing ..plus the effects on some players of the uncertainty around Racing/Stade. Scotland injuries too could test their squad depth (which they dont have). And then theres Englands record in these final "gimme" games for a title/grand slam.

Even so I know where the smart money is (tax free offshore low risk investment portfolios)


Only England know which pot they will be in for the world cup draw. Scortland, Wales and Ireland all have a shot at 4th spot. France could drop below Argentina into pot 3 which would certainly be a thing. It leaves the possibility of a world cup group with New Zealand, South Africa, and France in it. Theres also an the extreme oustide chance that Italy win by 15+ and leapfrog Samoa Tonga and Georgia to sneak 12th spot and pot 3.


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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:51 am

Scortland, Wales and Ireland all have a shot at 4th spot.
Sorry Scotland cannot get to 4th. They are currently on 82.18 ranking points. They cannot increase that as they are more than 10pts ahead of Italy. Lowest Ireland can drop is to 82.40 pts (lose by >15pts against England). So Scotland cannot get above Ireland - ipso facto Scotland cannot get to 4th.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:57 am

Wales Ireland is the only game to have bucked the rankings predictions so far.
Scotland Wales and Scotland Ireland also went against the ranking prediction surely?
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:57 pm

OK
World rankings as of end of 6 nations (so rankings that will determine Rugby World Cup seeding groups)

1 NEW ZEALAND 94.78
2 ENGLAND 89.53
3 AUSTRALIA 86.35
4 IRELAND 84.66
5 SCOTLAND 82.18
6 FRANCE 82.00
7 SOUTH AFRICA 81.79
8 WALES 81.36
9 ARGENTINA 79.91
10 FIJI 76.46
11 JAPAN 74.23
12 GEORGIA 74.14
13 TONGA 71.94
14 SAMOA 71.25
15 ITALY 71.17
So Ireland stay in top group, Scotland, France, South Africa and Wales are in second group and Argentine in 3rd
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Alex_Germany on Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:18 pm

I think Argentina and Japan (at home) are the ones you don't want in your group.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by The Loaded Dog on Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:52 am

poissonrouge wrote:OK
World rankings as of end of 6 nations (so rankings that will determine Rugby World Cup seeding groups)

1 NEW ZEALAND 94.78
2 ENGLAND 89.53
3 AUSTRALIA 86.35
4 IRELAND 84.66
5 SCOTLAND 82.18
6 FRANCE 82.00
7 SOUTH AFRICA 81.79
8 WALES 81.36
9 ARGENTINA 79.91
10 FIJI 76.46
11 JAPAN 74.23
12 GEORGIA 74.14
13 TONGA 71.94
14 SAMOA 71.25
15 ITALY 71.17
So Ireland stay in top group, Scotland, France, South Africa and Wales are in second group and Argentine in 3rd

Cheers Mrs P.
A nice end to the season for you! cuppa

The Canolas are grossly over-rated there in 3rd place. It's an abysmal situation here at the moment. steam
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by GunsGermsV2 on Sun Mar 19, 2017 7:06 pm

How are Australia still third in the world?

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Cyril on Sun Mar 19, 2017 7:28 pm

Ireland lost ground by being beaten by Scotland and Wales so didn't put themselves in a position to overtake them. Check out how the rankings work on the World Rugby site.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by SecretFly on Sun Mar 19, 2017 7:43 pm

Cyril wrote:Ireland lost ground by being beaten by Scotland and Wales so didn't put themselves in a position to overtake them. Check out how the rankings work on the World Rugby site.

Yeah but..., no but...., yeah but..., no but


What did they ever do to moral victory points? How come World Rugby have banned them?

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by GunsGermsV2 on Sun Mar 19, 2017 9:17 pm

Cyril wrote:Ireland lost ground by being beaten by Scotland and Wales so didn't put themselves in a position to overtake them. Check out how the rankings work on the World Rugby site.

I know but Australia lost almost half their games last year.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Cyril on Sun Mar 19, 2017 9:45 pm

GunsGermsV2 wrote:
Cyril wrote:Ireland lost ground by being beaten by Scotland and Wales so didn't put themselves in a position to overtake them. Check out how the rankings work on the World Rugby site.

I know but Australia lost almost half their games last year.
They must have already had a healthy lead over the chasing pack and had some handy wins in the Rugby Championship last year (finishing 2nd). At the time, SA and Argentina were higher ranked and losing to NZ won't have lost them many if any points.

That's the way it's weighted, not just on simple wins and losses.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:58 pm

Australia started off with 89.33 pts - they lost the guts of 5 pts by 3 defeats to England at home (losing to a team below you hurts and losing at home hurts)
They then lost to NZ (well above them - small loss of ranking points- 0.2) won one/lost one to SA (minimal change in points) and beat Arg home and away (net gain of 1.1 pts) So gained about 1 ranking point from Rugby Championship
Then they went on tour - so away from home so more profit for wins. Beat Wales, Scotland and France - and beat Wales by >15 pts when Wales were 5th in the rankings. Net gain nearly 3 pts (1.5 from Wales match, 1.3 from other 2)
Then lost to Ireland and England - lost 1.8 pts from those losses
So overall - 8 losses, 6 wins
4.9 pt loss from England tour
0.9 gain from Rugby championship
2.81 gain from their victories over Scotland, France and especially Wales
1.79 loss from England and Ireland games
Overall points change 2.98
With regard to Ireland in 6 Nations - they just about broke even on the ranking points as a result of losing to Scotland and Wales. If they had beaten Wales they would have got above Australia.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Cyril on Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:15 am

Pretty much what I said then Smile

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

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