World Rugby Rankings

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World Rugby Rankings

Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Fri 16 Nov - 18:35

First topic message reminder :

Current World Rankings

IRB Rankings at
http://www.worldrugby.org/rankings#mru

Fixtures according to http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/fixtures/_/league/180659/

Best odds for each result category from a range of bookies as at http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations

Code:


Saturday, March 18

Scotland v   Italy   12:30 PM   --   BT Murrayfield, Edinburgh

sco (on 82.18 points) at home -vs- ita (on 71.17 points)

If sco win by 1-15 points   0.000   82.18   71.17   No
If sco win by more than 15   0.000   82.18   71.17   No
If result is a draw   1.000   81.18   72.17   No
If ita win by 1-15 points   2.000   80.18   73.17   No
If ita win by more than 15   3.000   79.18   74.17   No

Scotland (1/16)
Draw (66/1)
Italy (15/1)

France v    Wales   2:45 PM   --   Stade de France, Saint-Denis

fra (on 81.21 points) at home -vs- wal (on 82.16 points)

If fra win by 1-15 points   0.795   82.00   81.36   Yes
If fra win by more than 15   1.193   82.40   80.97   Yes
If result is a draw   0.205   81.00   82.36   No
If wal win by 1-15 points   1.205   80.00   83.36   No
If wal win by more than 15   1.807   79.40   83.97   No

France (8/13)
14:45TV
   

France (8/13)
Draw (25/1)
Wales (13/8)

Ireland v    England   5:00 PM   --   Aviva Stadium, Dublin

ire (on 83.18 points) at home -vs- eng (on 91.02 points)

If ire win by 1-15 points   1.484   84.66   89.54   No
If ire win by more than 15   2.226   85.41   88.79   No
If result is a draw   0.484   83.66   90.54   No
If eng win by 1-15 points   0.516   82.66   91.54   No
If eng win by more than 15   0.774   82.41   91.79   No

Ireland (6/4)
Draw (25/1)
England (9/13)

Original thread:
http://www.606v2.com/t12724p950-irb-world-rankings-part-1


Sources:
Fixtures : http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/fixtures/4776295.stm
IRB Rankings : http://www.espn.co.uk/scrum/rugby/match/fixtures/international.html
Rankings explanation : http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html
Rankings archive : http://www.irb.com/rankings/archive/index.html
Fixtures : http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/current/match/scores/recent.html

Online calculator (Courtesy of Robbo277 (thanks)) : http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh


Last edited by Portnoy's Complaint on Tue 14 Mar - 12:12; edited 122 times in total

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Pot Hale on Sat 11 Mar - 10:55

I would love if Scotland got to 4th ranking.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Sun 12 Mar - 13:06

World rankings after weekend

1 NEW ZEALAND 94.78
2 ENGLAND 91.01
3 AUSTRALIA 86.35
4 IRELAND 83.18(-1.00)
5 SCOTLAND 82.18
6(+1) WALES 82.16(1.00)
7(-1) SOUTH AFRICA 81.79
8 FRANCE 81.21(0.64)
9 ARGENTINA 79.91
10 FIJI 76.46
11 JAPAN 74.23
12 GEORGIA 74.14
13 TONGA 71.94
14(+1) SAMOA 71.25
15(-1) ITALY 71.17(-0.64)
Possible changes after next w/end
Top 3 rankings unchanged regardless of England/Ireland match
Ireland stay in 4th unless they lose and Wales wins - Ireland swop places with Wales
Scotland stay with current ranking points - will drop 1 place if Wales win or if France win by > 15pts
Wales - win puts them in 4th or 5th position (depending on Ireland result) - loss means drop to 8th - cannot drop below Argentina
South Africa - remain in 7th regardless of results
France - will drop below Argentina if lose by >15 pts. Will climb to 5th if win by > 15pts. Win by 15 or less go to 6th, lose by 15 or less go to 8th
Italy - win will put them up to 13th, win by >15 they go up to 12th.

With regard to world cup seeding - Ireland competing with Wales for top group, France can drop to 3rd seeding group if they lose catastrophically - otherwise seeding groups are now decided.

PS - what about draws? - doesn't change above results significantly unless Ireland draw and Wales beat France by >15pts - then Ireland and Wales swop places. And an Italy draw puts them up to 13th
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by propdavid_london on Mon 13 Mar - 9:48

When are the seeding groups officially made?

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Scottrf on Mon 13 Mar - 10:17

propdavid_london wrote:When are the seeding groups officially made?
May.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Poorfour on Mon 13 Mar - 10:55

poissonrouge wrote:World rankings after weekend

1 NEW ZEALAND 94.78
2 ENGLAND 91.01
3 AUSTRALIA 86.35
4 IRELAND 83.18(-1.00)
5 SCOTLAND 82.18
6(+1) WALES 82.16(1.00)
7(-1) SOUTH AFRICA 81.79
8 FRANCE 81.21(0.64)
9 ARGENTINA 79.91
10 FIJI 76.46
11 JAPAN 74.23
12 GEORGIA 74.14
13 TONGA 71.94
14(+1) SAMOA 71.25
15(-1) ITALY 71.17(-0.64)
Possible changes after next w/end
Top 3 rankings unchanged regardless of England/Ireland match
Ireland stay in 4th unless they lose and Wales wins - Ireland swop places with Wales
Scotland stay with current ranking points - will drop 1 place if Wales win or if France win by > 15pts
Wales - win puts them in 4th or 5th position (depending on Ireland result) - loss means drop to 8th - cannot drop below Argentina
South Africa - remain in 7th regardless of results
France - will drop below Argentina if lose by >15 pts. Will climb to 5th if win by > 15pts. Win by 15 or less go to 6th, lose by 15 or less go to 8th
Italy - win will put them up to 13th, win by >15 they go up to 12th.

With regard to world cup seeding - Ireland competing with Wales for top group, France can drop to 3rd seeding group if they lose catastrophically - otherwise seeding groups are now decided.

PS - what about draws? - doesn't change above results significantly unless Ireland draw and Wales beat France by >15pts - then Ireland and Wales swop places. And an Italy draw puts them up to 13th

What's with the South Africa / Samoa thing? It's not showing on the IRB's site.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Mon 13 Mar - 18:17

What's with the South Africa / Samoa thing? It's not showing on the IRB's site.
Not sure what you mean - tallies with IRB as far as I can see. There are some discrepancies at hundredths level - obviously IRB rounds fractions differently to my computer, but other than that it is the same.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Poorfour on Mon 13 Mar - 19:58

poissonrouge wrote:
What's with the South Africa / Samoa thing? It's not showing on the IRB's site.
Not sure what you mean - tallies with IRB as far as I can see. There are some discrepancies at hundredths level - obviously IRB rounds fractions differently to my computer, but other than that it is the same.

It is now - it wasn't when I posted. Been a bit thick and only just worked out that South Africa and Samoa moving is because of Wales and Italy gaining and losing points.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Tue 14 Mar - 12:13

New OP

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Gooseberry on Wed 15 Mar - 7:57

The much maligned ranking system has once again acted as a pretty relaible indicator of victors and margins for the 6 nations. If you include the +3 home wieghting then only one game hasnt gone the way the pre match rankings had suggested, and all the games with a +10 or greater ratings differnetial have been won by 15 points plus.
Wales Ireland is the only game to have bucked the rankings predictions so far.

Using that approach we come to the startling conclusion that England should beat Ireland in a competitive game
France should beat Wales in a close game
And Scotland should add further embaressment to Italys campaign.

Which is what most people would predict as the likely outcomes anyway. But its still a thing. The curveball may be France ripping up their team sheet as they have a habit of doing ..plus the effects on some players of the uncertainty around Racing/Stade. Scotland injuries too could test their squad depth (which they dont have). And then theres Englands record in these final "gimme" games for a title/grand slam.

Even so I know where the smart money is (tax free offshore low risk investment portfolios)


Only England know which pot they will be in for the world cup draw. Scortland, Wales and Ireland all have a shot at 4th spot. France could drop below Argentina into pot 3 which would certainly be a thing. It leaves the possibility of a world cup group with New Zealand, South Africa, and France in it. Theres also an the extreme oustide chance that Italy win by 15+ and leapfrog Samoa Tonga and Georgia to sneak 12th spot and pot 3.


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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Fri 17 Mar - 9:51

Scortland, Wales and Ireland all have a shot at 4th spot.
Sorry Scotland cannot get to 4th. They are currently on 82.18 ranking points. They cannot increase that as they are more than 10pts ahead of Italy. Lowest Ireland can drop is to 82.40 pts (lose by >15pts against England). So Scotland cannot get above Ireland - ipso facto Scotland cannot get to 4th.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Fri 17 Mar - 9:57

Wales Ireland is the only game to have bucked the rankings predictions so far.
Scotland Wales and Scotland Ireland also went against the ranking prediction surely?
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Sat 18 Mar - 19:57

OK
World rankings as of end of 6 nations (so rankings that will determine Rugby World Cup seeding groups)

1 NEW ZEALAND 94.78
2 ENGLAND 89.53
3 AUSTRALIA 86.35
4 IRELAND 84.66
5 SCOTLAND 82.18
6 FRANCE 82.00
7 SOUTH AFRICA 81.79
8 WALES 81.36
9 ARGENTINA 79.91
10 FIJI 76.46
11 JAPAN 74.23
12 GEORGIA 74.14
13 TONGA 71.94
14 SAMOA 71.25
15 ITALY 71.17
So Ireland stay in top group, Scotland, France, South Africa and Wales are in second group and Argentine in 3rd
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Alex_Germany on Sat 18 Mar - 20:18

I think Argentina and Japan (at home) are the ones you don't want in your group.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by The Loaded Dog on Sun 19 Mar - 1:52

poissonrouge wrote:OK
World rankings as of end of 6 nations (so rankings that will determine Rugby World Cup seeding groups)

1 NEW ZEALAND 94.78
2 ENGLAND 89.53
3 AUSTRALIA 86.35
4 IRELAND 84.66
5 SCOTLAND 82.18
6 FRANCE 82.00
7 SOUTH AFRICA 81.79
8 WALES 81.36
9 ARGENTINA 79.91
10 FIJI 76.46
11 JAPAN 74.23
12 GEORGIA 74.14
13 TONGA 71.94
14 SAMOA 71.25
15 ITALY 71.17
So Ireland stay in top group, Scotland, France, South Africa and Wales are in second group and Argentine in 3rd

Cheers Mrs P.
A nice end to the season for you! cuppa

The Canolas are grossly over-rated there in 3rd place. It's an abysmal situation here at the moment. steam
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by GunsGermsV2 on Sun 19 Mar - 19:06

How are Australia still third in the world?

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Cyril on Sun 19 Mar - 19:28

Ireland lost ground by being beaten by Scotland and Wales so didn't put themselves in a position to overtake them. Check out how the rankings work on the World Rugby site.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by SecretFly on Sun 19 Mar - 19:43

Cyril wrote:Ireland lost ground by being beaten by Scotland and Wales so didn't put themselves in a position to overtake them. Check out how the rankings work on the World Rugby site.

Yeah but..., no but...., yeah but..., no but


What did they ever do to moral victory points? How come World Rugby have banned them?

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by GunsGermsV2 on Sun 19 Mar - 21:17

Cyril wrote:Ireland lost ground by being beaten by Scotland and Wales so didn't put themselves in a position to overtake them. Check out how the rankings work on the World Rugby site.

I know but Australia lost almost half their games last year.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Cyril on Sun 19 Mar - 21:45

GunsGermsV2 wrote:
Cyril wrote:Ireland lost ground by being beaten by Scotland and Wales so didn't put themselves in a position to overtake them. Check out how the rankings work on the World Rugby site.

I know but Australia lost almost half their games last year.
They must have already had a healthy lead over the chasing pack and had some handy wins in the Rugby Championship last year (finishing 2nd). At the time, SA and Argentina were higher ranked and losing to NZ won't have lost them many if any points.

That's the way it's weighted, not just on simple wins and losses.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Sun 19 Mar - 23:58

Australia started off with 89.33 pts - they lost the guts of 5 pts by 3 defeats to England at home (losing to a team below you hurts and losing at home hurts)
They then lost to NZ (well above them - small loss of ranking points- 0.2) won one/lost one to SA (minimal change in points) and beat Arg home and away (net gain of 1.1 pts) So gained about 1 ranking point from Rugby Championship
Then they went on tour - so away from home so more profit for wins. Beat Wales, Scotland and France - and beat Wales by >15 pts when Wales were 5th in the rankings. Net gain nearly 3 pts (1.5 from Wales match, 1.3 from other 2)
Then lost to Ireland and England - lost 1.8 pts from those losses
So overall - 8 losses, 6 wins
4.9 pt loss from England tour
0.9 gain from Rugby championship
2.81 gain from their victories over Scotland, France and especially Wales
1.79 loss from England and Ireland games
Overall points change 2.98
With regard to Ireland in 6 Nations - they just about broke even on the ranking points as a result of losing to Scotland and Wales. If they had beaten Wales they would have got above Australia.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Cyril on Mon 20 Mar - 6:15

Pretty much what I said then Smile

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by The Loaded Dog on Mon 15 May - 12:01

It still doesn't feel too good though. They deserve to be ranked about 8th or 9th.
The RWC seems like it was in a completely different era... a distant dream. It's been mostly downhill since then.

There needs to be a massive shake up in our rugby admin (who have been sitting on their hands since 2015) and some sort of new injection into the game here. They've lost their impetus and desire to compete at the higher levels - it seems. Quite sad and depressing.
To say the Wallabies now have their backs to the wall would be a gross understatement!


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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by GunsGermsV2 on Mon 15 May - 12:03

The wallaby forwards are quite weak and there doesn't seem to be a lot of depth. Australia seems over reliant on imports too.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by The Loaded Dog on Mon 15 May - 12:10

Yeah, I was at a SR game a couple weeks ago. Same old indiscipline, sloppishness, sluggishness, given a schooling, useless defence, poor handling, lack of vision for most of it... then a late surge far too late when the game was long since lost. That's no way to play rugby.

They are really doing their best to make it hard for themselves! Horrible to watch.

Not sure the national side will be much better. You need at least 5-7 top notch 'stars'... minimum... to make a fist of it on the international stage. Seems like we have about half a star at the minute. I just can't see who is going to step up and lead by example so that we have a slim hope of others following suit.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by GunsGermsV2 on Mon 15 May - 12:21

The Loaded Dog wrote:Yeah, I was at a SR game a couple weeks ago. Same old indiscipline, sloppishness, sluggishness, given a schooling, useless defence, poor handling, lack of vision for most of it... then a late surge far too late when the game was long since lost. That's no way to play rugby.

They are really doing their best to make it hard for themselves! Horrible to watch.

Not sure the national side will be much better. You need at least 5-7 top notch 'stars'... minimum... to make a fist of it on the international stage. Seems like we have about half a star at the minute. I just can't see who is going to step up and lead by example so that we have a slim hope of others following suit.

Not sure you really do need stars. I dont think Ireland or England have any stars but are playing to a very high level at the moment because both have very good coaching teams, highly organised unions (particularly the IRFU) and good squad depth.

Sometimes star players can be a distraction. Guys like Giteau, O'Connor, Beale and Cooper were/are all stars but all caused a lot of issues at least partially due to their star status.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Gooseberry on Mon 15 May - 12:32

Bit of exageration on how bad aus have been ...although the current super rugby mess doesnt bode well for this season.
They did beat the sides ranked 9-5 last time they played them though, its only 1,2 and 4 who beat them. So maybe 4th right now would be a fairer reflection, with a danger of slipping further if they dont get their act together in a way the franchises havent.

Its always been tough for Union in Aus though, in many ways theyve done well to keep their side near the top for so long with such a small market and player base squeezed by NARL and Aussie Rules as well as the rise of soccer.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by The Loaded Dog on Mon 15 May - 12:52

Yes, of course Goose. The rise of football in particular has taken a huge chunk of the market. Even in western Sydney you see hordes of kids (boys and girls) playing soccer and AFL along with RL. RU is practically non-existent - except for a few small pockets in the northern and eastern suburbs.

Maybe I'm being too harsh but it's very frustrating as you know. Yes, they probably should be around 4th or 5th given their current state of play.

GG - I should have said especially skilled players who excel at their position rather than "stars" but I take your point. We don't need any pretty boys or show pony types that's for sure. Depth is a real problem... as is coaching and the Union's organisation.
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Gooseberry on Mon 15 May - 14:01

Im actually wrong ...ethey lost their last game (away) to SA. But yeah the generasl point remains...they are in amongst that group of 3-7 who can all beat each other "on their day" but a step above 8-10 group.
At the moment it loosk like they might get worse, but historicaly this is a low and as with SA you fancy them getting their act together at some point even if theres a furtehr slump this season.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by GunsGermsV2 on Mon 15 May - 14:08

Plus the strength of England's run of 18 unbeaten games relies on the idea that Australia are a really strong side.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Gooseberry on Mon 15 May - 14:15

GunsGermsV2 wrote:Plus the strength of England's run of 18 unbeaten games relies on the idea that Australia are a really strong side.

Poopooing their run which was everyone except new zealand is a bit like poopooing new zelands for never having to face themselves.

regardless they still acheived something theyve never even come close to doing before in that run. And youd still struggle to suatin a paper rocks scissors argument that Ireland are more better when they lost to flipping Scotland (whos ranking in turn relies on the idea that Wales arent an embaressment ...)

And so it goes ....

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by GunsGermsV2 on Mon 15 May - 14:16

Im just kidding Gooseberry, it was a great run.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Gooseberry on Mon 15 May - 14:18

GunsGermsV2 wrote:Im just kidding Gooseberry, it was a great run.

Your only saying that because Irelands claim to superiority relies on having ended both runs kiss

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by GunsGermsV2 on Mon 15 May - 14:20

Haha you got me. Perfect counter.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Portnoy's Complaint on Sat 20 May - 3:22

poissonrouge wrote:Australia started off with 89.33 pts - they lost the guts of 5 pts by 3 defeats to England at home (losing to a team below you hurts and losing at home hurts)
They then lost to NZ (well above them - small loss of ranking points- 0.2) won one/lost one to SA (minimal change in points) and beat Arg home and away (net gain of 1.1 pts) So gained about 1 ranking point from Rugby Championship
Then they went on tour - so away from home so more profit for wins. Beat Wales, Scotland and France - and beat Wales by >15 pts when Wales were 5th in the rankings. Net gain nearly 3 pts (1.5 from Wales match, 1.3 from other 2)
Then lost to Ireland and England - lost 1.8 pts from those losses
So overall - 8 losses, 6 wins
4.9 pt loss from England tour
0.9 gain from Rugby championship
2.81 gain from their victories over Scotland, France and especially Wales
1.79 loss from England and Ireland games
Overall points change 2.98
With regard to Ireland in 6 Nations - they just about broke even on the ranking points as a result of losing to Scotland and Wales. If they had beaten Wales they would have got above Australia.

I wonder if poissonrouge would like to harness the shackles of this thread?

I fought hard to get it sorted as a sticky, and it's not difficult. But it's not to be passed over to any Tom, Dick or Harry.

But I'm losing interest in rugby since it became uberprofessional und fussballisch.

And say hello to MrsP.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Sun 11 Jun - 15:00

Changes from weekends internationals - have listed top 9 teams with ranking points/changes
NEW ZEALAND - no change
ENGLAND no change in position 0.34 inc in pts
AUSTRALIA and IRELAND no change
SOUTH AFRICA pts increase of 1.08 moved up to 5th
SCOTLAND pts increase of 0.3 but pushed down to 6th
WALES moved up to 7th at expense of France
FRANCE lost 1.08 pts and dropped to 8th
ARGENTINA lost 0.34 pts but remain in 9th
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Cyril on Sat 17 Jun - 22:43

England up in the 90s now Smile

Close to NZ than their next chaser (Ireland).

You can throw a blanket over Ireland, Aus, Scotland and SA.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Sat 17 Jun - 23:30

A few moves from the results -
No change in position for NZ or Eng - still 1st and 2nd
Aus lost a place to Ireland - thanks to Ireland win and Aus loss
Scotland pass SA into 5th ( not 4th as BBC scotland posted in this link )
In fact on looking across the web - there a a lot of pages which appear to have got the calculations wrong and have Scotland passing Australia into 4th - but they needed to win by > 15 pts to achieve that
Rest of top 10 as before

Current ranking points as below acc to my calculations
NEW ZEALAND 94.78
ENGLAND 90.14
IRELAND 85.09
AUSTRALIA 84.63
SCOTLAND 83.90
SOUTH AFRICA 83.63
WALES 81.45
FRANCE 80.16
ARGENTINA 79.31
FIJI 76.63
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poissonrouge

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by Cyril on Sat 17 Jun - 23:43

It seems incredible that the Beeb somehow got the placing wrong for 4th/5th. Well, perhaps not given that they get players names wrong half the time.

France and Argentina looking like excellent group mates for England. A long way to go though.

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Re: World Rugby Rankings

Post by poissonrouge on Sun 18 Jun - 12:20

Wasn't just the Beeb - most reports posted that Scotland moved to 4th - whether that is one site piggybacking off another and repeating their news, or due to all of them not actually reading the World rugby rankings news - where it stated that Scotland could move to 4th -if they won by more than 15 pts - I bet they didn't actually read the bit in bold.
And a few websites who did get Scotlands position as 5th were lauding how they had moved to their highest position of 5th - despite the fact that they have been 5th since the end of Feb apart from last week when SA beat France.

Now if Scotland beat Fiji by more than 15pts next week they will move to 4th. And if Ireland lost to Japan they would get to 3rd. Or if Australia lose to Italy, Scotland get to 4th (and Aus go to 6th).But if Scotland lost they drop to 6th even if Aus lose.
Interesting times!!
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Re: World Rugby Rankings

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