grading Nadal's comeback

by kingraf Wed 24 Apr 2013, 6:22 pm

so far so good in my opinion. 21-2 is the best he has ever started a season. He possesses a 5-1 record vs top ten opposition. And he has won three titles and made finals in every tournament he has entered.

He did concede a stronghold In Monte Carlo, but I'm not sure much can be taken from that in terms of where he is. Firstly the conditions were suitable for Novak to beat Nadal. Secondly, he took a month long break after Indian Wells, while this normally shouldn't mean to much, when you factor in that he had only played for a month, after a seven month layoff, then obviously some rust was to be expected.

I would rate his comeback as an A-minus so far. Thoughts?

by lags72 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 6:40 pm

Amidst all the doom, gloom and general pessimism that many here were voicing towards the latter part of his layoff and ahead of his return, I am on record as saying more than once that he would come back strongly and prove a force to be reckoned with from day one, and on every surface.

I fully accept that the biggest part of the season is yet to come and that it remains to be seen just how well he stands up to the rigours of the remaining 3 Slams. But he is certainly well rested in readiness for those and indeed other challenges, and the excellent results he has produced so far (even though still not at his best) have not been a surprise to me.

Am happy to give him an A.

by HM Murdock Wed 24 Apr 2013, 6:44 pm

kingraf wrote:He possesses a 5-1 record vs top ten opposition.

This is the really impressive part.

We knew he wouldn't come back until he was fit to compete, so we knew he'd be good. I thought he might be more rusty than he has been though. I didn't expect him to win IW right out of the gate.

It's been impressive. MC put the dampeners on it somewhat but overall it's a grade A from me.

by socal1976 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 6:55 pm

Well I think he has been very good, I would give him an A- as well kingraf. 5 straight finals after a 7 month layoff is hard to argue. But thing I will guarantee, despite Nadal's 21-2 record and 5 straight finals, if djokovic gets the better of him during the clay court season and wins RG no matter what Nadal does the weight of opinion on this site and in most corners will be that Nadal is a damaged product.

by kingraf Wed 24 Apr 2013, 7:28 pm

Like I said MC was a tad disappointing but as Nole showed at RG last year, when it rains, he can match up to Nadal on clay. I think it's a fifty fifty when it rains. But let's see them on dry first.

by Josiah Maiestas Wed 24 Apr 2013, 7:31 pm

socal1976 wrote:Well I think he has been very good, I would give him an A- as well kingraf. 5 straight finals after a 7 month layoff is hard to argue. But thing I will guarantee, despite Nadal's 21-2 record and 5 straight finals, if djokovic gets the better of him during the clay court season and wins RG no matter what Nadal does the weight of opinion on this site and in most corners will be that Nadal is a damaged product.

Nadal is still playing extremely well if you think he was 1 game away from finishing Tsonga 6-3 6-1 who himself took out a very good Wawrinka then that says he's of a much higher level than a consistent top 10 player. Novak on the other hand hit everything where he wanted to and was bossing the match apart from where he went a break don twice he was playing sensational tennis.

by invisiblecoolers Wed 24 Apr 2013, 7:34 pm

kingraf wrote:
He did concede a stronghold In Monte Carlo, but I'm not sure much can be taken from that in terms of where he is. Firstly the conditions were suitable for Novak to beat Nadal.

That Djokovic would have beaten any Nadal on any given surface and conditions on that given day period. thumbsup

Rafa looks very one-dimensional against Djoko at the moment, its time his team device a new strategy to counter Djoko, may be a serve and volley, Rafa current technique to out last an opponent and target the backhand is not working against Djoko.

However FrenchOpen will be different, if they two are set to meet in QF nothing is guaranteed and I would still put Rafa miles ahead as Favorite.

The concern is not Rafa's fitness [physical as we as Match] its a strategy to counter Djoko's game, he could take a leaf out of Fed's attacking strategy against Djoko, but knowing Rafa a champion on his own rights he will come back with a strategy to put Djoko back on his place. thumbsup

by Guest Wed 24 Apr 2013, 7:35 pm

Awesome.

Another boring, pointless Nadal article from a Nadal fan.

I'll choose the title for the next one. How about 'what percentage are Nadal's knees at now ?'

The OP, Hawkeye or Amritia can write the article.

ghost

Emancipator

by Guest Wed 24 Apr 2013, 7:39 pm

kingraf wrote:Like I said MC was a tad disappointing but as Nole showed at RG last year, when it rains, he can match up to Nadal on clay. I think it's a fifty fifty when it rains. But let's see them on dry first.

Dry clay? You mean like Rome and Madrid in 2011.

If Novak plays his best he wins regardless of the surface. However even a small drop in novaks level and rafa grinds out a win.

by socal1976 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 7:39 pm

Josiah Maiestas wrote:
socal1976 wrote:Well I think he has been very good, I would give him an A- as well kingraf. 5 straight finals after a 7 month layoff is hard to argue. But thing I will guarantee, despite Nadal's 21-2 record and 5 straight finals, if djokovic gets the better of him during the clay court season and wins RG no matter what Nadal does the weight of opinion on this site and in most corners will be that Nadal is a damaged product.
Nadal is still playing extremely well if you think he was 1 game away from finishing Tsonga 6-3 6-1 who himself took out a very good Wawrinka then that says he's of a much higher level than a consistent top 10 player. Novak on the other hand hit everything where he wanted to and was bossing the match apart from where he went a break don twice he was playing sensational tennis.

Can't really disagree with you JM on this one. Apparently, people forgot indian wells as soon as Novak beat Nadal at Monte carlo. It really was top flight shotmaking from the baseline by Djoko and reinforced all those troubling patterns that did Nadal in during 2011. If Nadal wants to rely on breaking down Djokovic's backhand and outlasting and outblasting him from the baseline I don't think he will find very much joy or consistent results in that category. Frankly, in this matchup Nadal is in a bit of a pickle. I do give him credit though he has shown he can battle back from defeat and get his wins in.

by socal1976 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 7:44 pm

emancipator wrote:
kingraf wrote:Like I said MC was a tad disappointing but as Nole showed at RG last year, when it rains, he can match up to Nadal on clay. I think it's a fifty fifty when it rains. But let's see them on dry first.

Dry clay? You mean like Rome and Madrid in 2011.

If Novak plays his best he wins regardless of the surface. However even a small drop in novaks level and rafa grinds out a win.

I agree with that emancipator, Nadal's losses to Novak on clay have little to do with weather, as if during Nadal's 8 year romp of the clay courts he never played in a damp European spring, why didn't anyone else figure out that Nadal's forehand didn't have any bite if the court was wet. It has a lot more to do with NOvak making minced meat of Nadal's serve, his two handed backhand, his change of direction, and his improved fitness and belief.

by Josiah Maiestas Wed 24 Apr 2013, 7:48 pm

emancipator wrote:
kingraf wrote:Like I said MC was a tad disappointing but as Nole showed at RG last year, when it rains, he can match up to Nadal on clay. I think it's a fifty fifty when it rains. But let's see them on dry first.

Dry clay? You mean like Rome and Madrid in 2011.

If Novak plays his best he wins regardless of the surface. However even a small drop in novaks level and rafa grinds out a win.

Agreed with, this isn't Nadal of 2008/10 he is older now and a bit less explosive in his ground game and Novak doesn't get bothered by much of Nadal's arsenal ever since 2011. The matches he (Novak) lost last year were from his fatigue of his 2011 season.

by Guest Wed 24 Apr 2013, 8:06 pm

socal1976 wrote:
emancipator wrote:
kingraf wrote:Like I said MC was a tad disappointing but as Nole showed at RG last year, when it rains, he can match up to Nadal on clay. I think it's a fifty fifty when it rains. But let's see them on dry first.

Dry clay? You mean like Rome and Madrid in 2011.

If Novak plays his best he wins regardless of the surface. However even a small drop in novaks level and rafa grinds out a win.

I agree with that emancipator, Nadal's losses to Novak on clay have little to do with weather, as if during Nadal's 8 year romp of the clay courts he never played in a damp European spring, why didn't anyone else figure out that Nadal's forehand didn't have any bite if the court was wet. It has a lot more to do with NOvak making minced meat of Nadal's serve, his two handed backhand, his change of direction, and his improved fitness and belief.

Absolutely, this whole dry clay, wet clay malarkey is just a red herring created by nadal fans to justify the loss. The problem is djokovic not the weather and Nadal has no consistent answers just as he has had no consistent answers for 3 and a half years against Novak.

It's also not true that rafa made adjustments in 2012. Those matches were decided by novaks errors rather than anything new from Rafa. What adjustments can he realistically make? The only one that could alter the dynamic of the rallies is the consistent and accurate use og the dtlfh (not the running fh) but Rafa really struggles with this shot and when he does play it he tends to put far too much spin on the ball and the trajectory means it curls into the court thus giving the defender less court to cover.

Apart from that what else is he going to do? Playing more to novaks FH won't work either because Novak will just pound rafas bh until it breaks down. Even his go to tactic of grinding and outlasting people doesn't work against Novak. He basically has to hope that Novak is a little off in the subsequent matches or that he suffers an injury or major loss of form to reset the dynamics of the rivalry.

by kingraf Wed 24 Apr 2013, 8:07 pm

So Novak went from two sets and a break down to eight straight Games because? I mean the next day Djokovic won two games out of seven, in drier conditions.

The 2011 wins were no flukes, but you can't tell me that you think he is playing at the a same levels. It's a well known fact that Nasals balls stand up rather than fizz when the ball is wet. Novak on the other hand hits through.

I have been saying for years that Nadal needs to drop UT. I think that he has missed out on many technicalities on the sport because of his coach. I mean he only served faster at pace at USO 10 because his uncle watched a doccie on Jack Nicklaus!

by HM Murdock Wed 24 Apr 2013, 8:16 pm

kingraf wrote:Like I said MC was a tad disappointing but as Nole showed at RG last year, when it rains, he can match up to Nadal on clay. I think it's a fifty fifty when it rains. But let's see them on dry first.

50/50 when it rains?

8 games in a row at RG and then a 6-2 first set at MC? Doesn't seem like 50/50!

Although Emancipator is right, this wet clay/dry clay thing isn't the key factor.

by kingraf Wed 24 Apr 2013, 8:17 pm

Nadal needs a mental shift against Nole. At this stage of his career, I think its too late, but if Nadal opens his shoulders he has wonderful power. This obviously means more unforced errors, but he is already losing the points!

by kingraf Wed 24 Apr 2013, 8:19 pm

Ya, know its not quite fifty-fify, but you cant give Clay God no chance... on clay. It feels like bad penmanship

by HM Murdock Wed 24 Apr 2013, 8:23 pm

kingraf wrote:Ya, know its not quite fifty-fify, but you cant give Clay God no chance... on clay. It feels like bad penmanship

Old habits die hard! Wink

by kingraf Wed 24 Apr 2013, 8:29 pm

But on a serious note, I think its a little early to be declaring Nadal a sitting duck vs Djokovic, sure it seems bad, but lest we forget Nadal is 19-15 against Djokovic, and lost but a set to him last year. Also this thread was about grading his comeback, not grading his chances vs Djokovic. I WILL NOT BE HI-JACKED¡

by invisiblecoolers Wed 24 Apr 2013, 8:55 pm

I would give A++ thumbsup

by socal1976 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 9:03 pm

emancipator wrote:
socal1976 wrote:
emancipator wrote:
kingraf wrote:Like I said MC was a tad disappointing but as Nole showed at RG last year, when it rains, he can match up to Nadal on clay. I think it's a fifty fifty when it rains. But let's see them on dry first.

Dry clay? You mean like Rome and Madrid in 2011.

If Novak plays his best he wins regardless of the surface. However even a small drop in novaks level and rafa grinds out a win.

I agree with that emancipator, Nadal's losses to Novak on clay have little to do with weather, as if during Nadal's 8 year romp of the clay courts he never played in a damp European spring, why didn't anyone else figure out that Nadal's forehand didn't have any bite if the court was wet. It has a lot more to do with NOvak making minced meat of Nadal's serve, his two handed backhand, his change of direction, and his improved fitness and belief.

Absolutely, this whole dry clay, wet clay malarkey is just a red herring created by nadal fans to justify the loss. The problem is djokovic not the weather and Nadal has no consistent answers just as he has had no consistent answers for 3 and a half years against Novak.

It's also not true that rafa made adjustments in 2012. Those matches were decided by novaks errors rather than anything new from Rafa. What adjustments can he realistically make? The only one that could alter the dynamic of the rallies is the consistent and accurate use og the dtlfh (not the running fh) but Rafa really struggles with this shot and when he does play it he tends to put far too much spin on the ball and the trajectory means it curls into the court thus giving the defender less court to cover.

Apart from that what else is he going to do? Playing more to novaks FH won't work either because Novak will just pound rafas bh until it breaks down. Even his go to tactic of grinding and outlasting people doesn't work against Novak. He basically has to hope that Novak is a little off in the subsequent matches or that he suffers an injury or major loss of form to reset the dynamics of the rivalry.

I agree here, I mean if you look at Nadal's turnaround against Djokovic in the spring of 2012 he won three quick matches all on clay when Novak started a lengthy mid season swoon. He had the exact drop in form you are talking about and the steady and solid Nadal capitalized on a flood of djokovic errors. The rivalry is on Novak's racquet, it doesn't mean he will never lose against Nadal, but like you I think if Djokovic is on song Nadal doesn't stand much of a shot, he can play him close because he is a fighter and competitor but Novak's A game trumps Nadal's A game regardless of the surface or rain or whatever.

Also good point on Nadal's down the line backhand I was surprised how short and loopy he hit that shot and how Novak just disregarded it and either ran around it to turn that shot into a forehand or snapped a cross court backhand with a tight angle hitting into the open court. The up the line backhand is by a significant margin the weakest offering in Nadal's baseline game. If you hit up the line and you do it weakly it is better not to hit up the line at all because it will open up the cross court shot from your opponent and not give you time to get back and recover.

I do think Nadal will win again against djokovic, Novak can be streaky and emotional but definetly for some time now the rivalry has been on Novak's racquet despite the three quick clay court wins Nadal had in 2012 during a mid season slump by Djokovic on Nadal's favorite surface.

by socal1976 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 9:05 pm

kingraf wrote:But on a serious note, I think its a little early to be declaring Nadal a sitting duck vs Djokovic, sure it seems bad, but lest we forget Nadal is 19-15 against Djokovic, and lost but a set to him last year. Also this thread was about grading his comeback, not grading his chances vs Djokovic. I WILL NOT BE HI-JACKED¡

Last year he lost 3 sets to djokovic at the AO in the final, just a correction.

by hawkeye Wed 24 Apr 2013, 9:05 pm

kingraff. Be strong. You are posting highly controversial stuff here.

I won't grade Nadal's chances against Djokovic here but it's useful to compare Nadal with the present number one to assess how good Nadal has been since his comeback.

This is how Djokovic has performed since the AO

Dubai. Won. 500 points

IW. Semi. 360 points

Miami. R16. 90 points

MC. Won 1,000 points

Djokovic Won two titles and has made 1,950 ranking points in total

This is how Nadal has performed since his return after the AO

VDM. Final. 150 points

Sao Paulo. Won. 250 points

Acapulco. Won. 500 points

IW. Won. 1,000 points

MC. Final. 600 points

Nadal has reached the final in all five events that he's played and won three titles. He has made 2,500 ranking points.

To answer your question I would give Nadal an A-. I never give a straight A unless a player wins everything the enter without dropping a set. I would give Djokovic a B-. Maybe I'm being a little generous as I don't usually award B's if a player has gone out in the round of 16 during the assessment period.

by socal1976 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 9:13 pm

Hawkeye's comedy routine is back at it. I guess the 2,000 points Novak won at AO didn't get graded. How deflating for Nadal that the B- djokovic straight setted him on his beloved clay.

by Silver Wed 24 Apr 2013, 9:22 pm

I think that he's done very well. Remember the doomsday predictions prior to his return to the tour? A lot of people, me included, thought that he would work his way back into the groove eventually but not before being highly susceptible to the top players for quite some time. And I don't think anybody expected a HC tournament entry, let alone a win at Indian Wells.

By any standard, it's been an excellent comeback considering the circumstances were virtually without precedent - hence why we all struggled to predict what would happen. The MC loss aside, he's managed his schedule pretty well and settled back into the old routines. Novak bossed him, but with further tournaments, tactical adjustments and timing issues being ironed out, it'll probably be more competitive next time around (though of course, he has a major job on his hands in that regard).

by hawkeye Wed 24 Apr 2013, 9:26 pm

socal1976 wrote:Hawkeye's comedy routine is back at it. I guess the 2,000 points Novak won at AO didn't get graded. How deflating for Nadal that the B- djokovic straight setted him on his beloved clay.

socal1976. kingraf asked us to grade Nadal's comeback. How can we include the AO when he didn't play Rolling Eyes

It's not just about one match it's about the whole period. To compare like with like obviously I only looked at Djokovic during the same period to see their relative form. I thought it would be useful to compare Nadal to the present number one to get a measure of how well he's doing. You can't jump a grade because of one match. Haas would have to do a little bit more than straight set Djokovic (It was 6-2, 6-4 at Miami) in order to get a mark above Djokovic.

by kingraf Wed 24 Apr 2013, 9:28 pm

meant on clay Socal.

by kingraf Wed 24 Apr 2013, 9:41 pm

I love how the clay defeats are classed as Nole having a mid-season "swoon". Correct me if I'm wrong, but in all three of their matches, Nole and Nadal were seeded as one and two. Meaning that to play each other, they had to BOTH make finals. Not much of a dip, then.

by Danny_1982 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 9:49 pm

Why do people even bother saying "he only won / lost because if the conditions".

It is the most ridiculous thing to say. Novak won fair and square because he was the better player on the day. No ifs, no buts. Hypotheticals and guesses about how the match would have gone in slightly different conditions are just excuses for what actually happened.

Credit to Rafa for a great comeback though. Compared to my expectations of his comeback - which I thought we be good, but not this good - he has to get an A+. He's been out the sport for ages, and within a month or two of being back he won a masters. Incredible!

by Jeremy_Kyle Wed 24 Apr 2013, 9:54 pm

I don't want to get into the same old argument against rafa fans.....Nontheless, it is fair to say that they are more picturesque than average. Their ability to analyse Rafa defeats in the smallest details and to find reasons behind each defeat, is where they really stand apart.

For example here I am listing some of the adverse circumstances Rafa had to battle against, that the rafa fans promptly identified:

- The rustiness: Rafa was deemed to be rusty during the final

- The wet clay: even though it wasn't raining, the clay did look very wet

- Lack of important matches against top players

- Rafa had niggles and pain (infomation was taken from a dedicated and well informed blog)

- The enforcement of 25 sec rule played against him.

- Rafa forgot all the technical variation he successfully put in place to counter Djokovic in 2012.

- Rafa didn't move as well as usual

- Please feel free to add...... Crying or Very sad

by kingraf Wed 24 Apr 2013, 9:56 pm

I think tennis is the one game where conditions matter a truck load, or is beating Nadal on clay basically the same as beating him on carpet, since conditions are so trivial?

Besides I never claimed Nadal would have duffed him up in the dry, but to think condititions are merely inconsequential footnotes is highly deluded

by kingraf Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:00 pm

Play got delayed by rain JK, but of course you are free to avoid all the facts, as is your right.

I mean a guy takes seven months off plays for a month, then takes another month off, so eight months off out of nine, but of course thats a mere footnote, on the binliography.

by socal1976 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:06 pm

kingraf wrote:I love how the clay defeats are classed as Nole having a mid-season "swoon". Correct me if I'm wrong, but in all three of their matches, Nole and Nadal were seeded as one and two. Meaning that to play each other, they had to BOTH make finals. Not much of a dip, then.

Enough of a dip to lose to the all time clay king. Again if you look at djoko post Miami till the USO he had a number of poor results not just against Nadal.

by socal1976 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:12 pm

Silver wrote:I think that he's done very well. Remember the doomsday predictions prior to his return to the tour? A lot of people, me included, thought that he would work his way back into the groove eventually but not before being highly susceptible to the top players for quite some time. And I don't think anybody expected a HC tournament entry, let alone a win at Indian Wells.

By any standard, it's been an excellent comeback considering the circumstances were virtually without precedent - hence why we all struggled to predict what would happen. The MC loss aside, he's managed his schedule pretty well and settled back into the old routines. Novak bossed him, but with further tournaments, tactical adjustments and timing issues being ironed out, it'll probably be more competitive next time around (though of course, he has a major job on his hands in that regard).

Good post silver, nice post, I think Nadal can play better but if he runs into djoko in that kind of form he can make it tough but I don't think he can win. Again Nadal fans I think Nadal will win again against djoko, Nadal is more steady than Novak, where as Novak is a streakier by a bit. So it doesn't take much of a drop off by Novak to open the door for Nadal. It isn't like the margin is that high that Nadal has no chance, but if Novak brings the A game the patterns of play and the match up will tilt it Novak's way. I am also very impressed with Nadal's return, but unlike many I never doubted that he would back and as effective as ever.

by Jeremy_Kyle Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:14 pm

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:I don't want to get into the same old argument against rafa fans.....Nontheless, it is fair to say that they are more picturesque than average. Their ability to analyse Rafa defeats in the smallest details and to find reasons behind each defeat, is where they really stand apart.

For example here I am listing some of the adverse circumstances Rafa had to battle against, that the rafa fans promptly identified:

- The rustiness: Rafa was deemed to be rusty during the final

- The wet clay: even though it wasn't raining, the clay did look very wet

- Lack of important matches against top players

- Rafa had niggles and pain (infomation was taken from a dedicated and well informed blog)

- The enforcement of 25 sec rule played against him.

- Rafa forgot all the technical variation he successfully put in place to counter Djokovic in 2012.

- Rafa didn't move as well as usual

- Play got delayed by rain

- I mean a guy takes seven months off plays for a month, then takes another month off, so eight months off out of nine, but of course thats a mere footnote, on the binliography.

- Please feel free to add......

by Danny_1982 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:16 pm

kingraf wrote:I think tennis is the one game where conditions matter a truck load, or is beating Nadal on clay basically the same as beating him on carpet, since conditions are so trivial?

Besides I never claimed Nadal would have duffed him up in the dry, but to think condititions are merely inconsequential footnotes is highly deluded

Who said they are inconsequential footnotes? You're reading things that weren't written.

In this particular circumstance, it's an excuse as far as I'm concerned. Until I hear the conditions blaming Rafa fan say he only won a big match because of conditions, then I'm afraid to most neutrals it will come across as some Rafa fans being unable to accept defeat.

Some Rafa fans, not all.

by kingraf Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:18 pm

Socal- From MC until USO, Djokovic made three MS finals, winning one and one Semi finals, as well as a Slam final and semi. only loss to guy not ranked in top 4 was in Madrid. Im sorry I dont bite

by socal1976 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:26 pm

kingraf wrote:Socal- From MC until USO, Djokovic made three MS finals, winning one and one Semi finals, as well as a Slam final and semi. only loss to guy not ranked in top 4 was in Madrid. Im sorry I dont bite

Lost a string of big 4 match ups as well in that period that he was winning most of before then, and since has won his last 5 big 4 matchups. What you detailed represents a monumental drop in form for the world #1 who sits 4300 points on top of the 52 week rankings. Like I said if he has drop off in form the advantage shifts to the steadier and safer playing Nadal.

by kingraf Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:27 pm

by stating that it is a ridiculous thing to say (conditions playing a role) you are intimating that conditions are inconsequential. In tennis, and on clay matches can get changed big time due to conditions. Soderling beat Federer in RG10 largely because the conditions meant that his game was better equipped. Its not excuses, its basic science.

By no means am I saying that Nadal would have won in the dry, but really? Conditions mean a lot. Pretend we playing a game of cricket: Overcast day, you win the toss, are you gonna tell the opposing captain he can decide, because its all the same?

I dont get why tennis fans cant appreciate the science of the game.

by kingraf Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:29 pm

Never in the history of the game has that signalled a monumental drop, maybe a blip (not even sure of that), but monumental, in a period where he has won one Slam? And prior to made one final?

by Jeremy_Kyle Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:39 pm

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:
Jeremy_Kyle wrote:I don't want to get into the same old argument against rafa fans.....Nontheless, it is fair to say that they are more picturesque than average. Their ability to analyse Rafa defeats in the smallest details and to find reasons behind each defeat, is where they really stand apart.

For example here I am listing some of the adverse circumstances Rafa had to battle against, that the rafa fans promptly identified:

- The rustiness: Rafa was deemed to be rusty during the final

- The wet clay: even though it wasn't raining, the clay did look very wet

- Lack of important matches against top players

- Rafa had niggles and pain (infomation was taken from a dedicated and well informed blog)

- The enforcement of 25 sec rule played against him.

- Rafa forgot all the technical variation he successfully put in place to counter Djokovic in 2012.

- Rafa didn't move as well as usual

- Play got delayed by rain

- I mean a guy takes seven months off plays for a month, then takes another month off, so eight months off out of nine, but of course thats a mere footnote, on the binliography

- Uncle Tony coaching lacks tactical awareness.

- Please feel free to add......

by lydian Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:47 pm

This thread is just what we needed. Is MC2013 the point where we see Fed fans start to jump ship to Djokovic to maintain their 'love' of Nadal, lol...

by Danny_1982 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:48 pm

Kingraf - It's ridiculous to blame conditions for a defeat, especially in a match where the conditions are relatively normal.

I think you're having a problem seeing past your own bias, and trying to dress it up as being more knowledgable than those who disagree with you.

You're not doing a lot of Rafa fans any favours. Look at some of the (admittedly amusing) comments you've inspired about Rafa fans and excuses. Perhaps more humility in defeat would result in a better reputation on here for the people those comments are aimed at. Alernatively, just carry on and dig a deeper hole and continue being mocked for it. Makes no difference to me.

He's had a great comeback and its not like MC is the end of the road. I would still edge Rafa for RG personally, although I'm less sure after Sunday.

by Silver Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:52 pm

socal1976 wrote:Good post silver, nice post, I think Nadal can play better but if he runs into djoko in that kind of form he can make it tough but I don't think he can win. Again Nadal fans I think Nadal will win again against djoko, Nadal is more steady than Novak, where as Novak is a streakier by a bit. So it doesn't take much of a drop off by Novak to open the door for Nadal. It isn't like the margin is that high that Nadal has no chance, but if Novak brings the A game the patterns of play and the match up will tilt it Novak's way. I am also very impressed with Nadal's return, but unlike many I never doubted that he would back and as effective as ever.

Thanks socal, I'm trying to post a bit more from now! Yeah, as it stands when the A games are both brought to the table, it's a dodgy matchup for Nadal right now. And since Novak does seem to be a confidence player, that does play into what you said - if he maintains his top level of play he'll almost certainly win most matches, but any sustained dip and the match could well be whisked away from him by Nadal. The onus is very much on Nadal to combat the development and (re)discover new ways to adapt his game. Heavy spin will always be his bedrock, but he can tinker with the template to an extent and perhaps have more success against Novak going forward. Of course, if he does that then he could be more susceptible to a form Federer or Murray...gotta love the roundabout matchups at the top of the game right now.

Rafa's done a great job overall though, all credit to him. The MC defeat shouldn't overshadow a frankly excellent season thus far Smile

by socal1976 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:52 pm

kingraf wrote:Never in the history of the game has that signalled a monumental drop, maybe a blip (not even sure of that), but monumental, in a period where he has won one Slam? And prior to made one final?

What slam did he win from Miami to the US open, he lost at RG and lost at wimby, maybe monumental is overstating he was definetly not the same player he was at the start and the end of the year. Don't change the timeframe we are talking from the start of the clay court season till the start of the USO.

by socal1976 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 10:57 pm

lydian wrote:This thread is just what we needed. Is MC2013 the point where we see Fed fans start to jump ship to Djokovic to maintain their 'love' of Nadal, lol...

A lot of fed fans went pro-djoko for awhile in 2011, I think he they enjoyed Novak's 7-0 run against Nadal almost as much as djoko's fans did. In away I can understand it, that 17 number looks really safe since the rise of djokovic in 2011, where as at the end of 2010 it didn't look safe at all especially since I think it was 16 at the time.

by kingraf Wed 24 Apr 2013, 11:00 pm

Lets look at each "excuse"
Rustiness? I never said he was
Wet clay- So I assume it was dry then?
Niggles? Never mentioned them
25 sec rule? Best career start under it
pattern variation- When did I eve bring this up?
Movement? Well, I guess I can understand how this can be attributed to me if the previous one was.
Play got delayed by rain- Seems like a contradiction? Dry court, but it rained enough to delay play? Again I never said he lost because it rained, or because it got delayed. I said Djokovic has a greater chance when the clay is wet.
Layoff- yeah because all players are 100% after massive layoffs
UncleToni- Look at Nadal, Federer, Murray and Djokovic, and tell me who sticks out for never having formal coaching?

I have no problem with Nadal losing, it makes no real change in my life.

by socal1976 Wed 24 Apr 2013, 11:03 pm

Silver wrote:
socal1976 wrote:Good post silver, nice post, I think Nadal can play better but if he runs into djoko in that kind of form he can make it tough but I don't think he can win. Again Nadal fans I think Nadal will win again against djoko, Nadal is more steady than Novak, where as Novak is a streakier by a bit. So it doesn't take much of a drop off by Novak to open the door for Nadal. It isn't like the margin is that high that Nadal has no chance, but if Novak brings the A game the patterns of play and the match up will tilt it Novak's way. I am also very impressed with Nadal's return, but unlike many I never doubted that he would back and as effective as ever.

Thanks socal, I'm trying to post a bit more from now! Yeah, as it stands when the A games are both brought to the table, it's a dodgy matchup for Nadal right now. And since Novak does seem to be a confidence player, that does play into what you said - if he maintains his top level of play he'll almost certainly win most matches, but any sustained dip and the match could well be whisked away from him by Nadal. The onus is very much on Nadal to combat the development and (re)discover new ways to adapt his game. Heavy spin will always be his bedrock, but he can tinker with the template to an extent and perhaps have more success against Novak going forward. Of course, if he does that then he could be more susceptible to a form Federer or Murray...gotta love the roundabout matchups at the top of the game right now.

Rafa's done a great job overall though, all credit to him. The MC defeat shouldn't overshadow a frankly excellent season thus far

I agree Silver, Nadal can't change himself overnight or his game that much but he can use better tactics and execute properly. But even that doesn't give me much confidence in him if Novak plays like he did in that final. The problem is frankly that Novak knows that he is a bad match up for nadal, and so does nadal, a confident djokovic is a difficult thing to tame. He easily played his best match of the year in that MC final, it was like his eyes lit up when he saw Nadal. Even when down a break at 5-6 he promptly won 11 of the next 12 points to finish Nadal off. Nadal is definetly in a pickle in this matchup, but like I said if Novak doesn't bring it the margin is not that much, and Nadal will get his licks in the future I am sure of it.

by **laverfan** Wed 24 Apr 2013, 11:03 pm

Djokovic's h2h against Nadal is nothing to be sneezed at so Djokovic at peak vs a Nadal with many more miles is one factor.

Nadal has done well from losing to Zeballos to being a finalist at MC. Good comeback.

Does anyone recall RG 2007 SF against Djokovic when Nadal was a very different player? For two sets, a young Djokovic held his own despite losing both.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dw924ZW0x_o

@Lydian... need to give Djokovic some credit for his win, don't you think, despite the 'malarkey' as Emanci calls it. Wink

Djokovic almost withdrew from MC.

The MC final reminded me of the Rome final, where Djokovic was very forceful.

by **laverfan** Wed 24 Apr 2013, 11:07 pm

I hope I do not have referee Djokovic-Nadal like Federer-Nadal, #17 notwithstanding. Crying or Very sad

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