Sum ups my thoughts very well about Janowicz the prospect, but someone else wrote it

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Post by socal1976 on Mon 01 Jul 2013, 9:49 pm

June 30, 2013) Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic, and Bernard Tomic have been commonly touted as being the next generation of great champions. If the ATP World Tour was a movie, these three men are believed to be its future leads.

While I do agree these three players have voluminous potential, I believe one young man—Jerzy Janowicz—is ready to rise above them all.

Let’s take a closer look at the 22-year-old Pole’s game to see what separates him not only from the young stars of the ATP World Tour but also from the other giants of tennis.

The most glaring aspect of Janowicz’s game is his imposing serve, which he unloads with herculean strikes and in the process prevents his opponents from grasping even the slightest glimpse of the ball. Janowicz delivers his devastating, heat-sinking missile of a serve from a soaring height. At 6”8’, the Pole is not only one of the tallest players on tour but is actually one of the few players that is able to look over the net and see his opponent’s baseline (you must be 6”7’ to do so).

Janowicz’s serve of course comes with much power but it also possesses ample variation. On the deuce side, as was demonstrated in the Paris Indoor Masters last fall, Janowicz is able to slide his racket head across the outside-edge of the ball producing a side-spin serve that not only moves out and away from his opponents but also lands short in the box making it nearly unreturnable. In terms of his second-serve, Janowicz is able to torpedo up the back of the ball and produce uncanny amounts of topspin making it more of a weapon than a starting shot.

Many big men on tour such as John Isner, Milos Raonic, and Kevin Anderson can absolutely crank their serves and are able to hold quickly and often. This is all fine and dandy until you realize that winning every set in a tiebreaker is not only an unrealistic expectation but really the last thing anybody wants to be doing. Unfortunately enough, this is what a lot of tall guys on tour end up having to do because they simply cannot break serve.

No shortage of individuals have correctly pointed out that big men on tour often find themselves retreating and backtracking on second serves to give themselves more time to set up and execute the return. This puts them into highly defensive positions and exploits their poor movement.

The explanation I find more revealing of the poor returning of big men is much grimmer: These guys have inadequate reactionary prowess and will probably never be anything more than average returners because they need more time than is allotted to hit meaningful returns. If you examine a player like John Isner, you’ll find out quickly that he loves running around his backhand and taking massive cuts on his forehands—granted he has time. Milos Raonic is much the same in that while he may be a big ball striker, he thrives when given time and often crumbles when rushed. This necessity for time during rallies extends to the return of serve.

Janowicz, unlike several of his towering contemporaries, takes a fearless and aggressive stance when returning serve. Against Andy Murray in Paris last year, Janowicz was almost standing on top of the baseline for first serve returns and was inside the baseline on countless second serve returns. Needless to say, Andy Murray’s serve is no pushover. Janowicz is able to establish such a proactive return stance for multiple reasons. One, Janowicz has speedy reactions and is able to anticipate and pick up on where his opponents are serving. Secondly, Janowicz’s forehand and backhand do not have protracted swing paths thus when returning, he is used to producing the abbreviated swings needed to deflect back powerful serves.

Speaking of Janowicz groundstrokes, the Pole’s forehand and backhand are undoubtedly some of the flattest strokes on tour. Janowicz drives through the ball with low-margin, enterprising and authoritative linear strikes. Janowicz’s forehand grip is also one of the most extreme on tour. He uses a full eastern grip approaching a continental grip which helps to explain the flat nature of his groundstrokes. Despite Janowicz’s groundstrokes being very high-risk, he is able to stay in elongated rallies because his swings are short and simple thus he is not going to be breaking down mechanically when under pressure.

The commanding power Janowicz possesses is beautifully contrasted by his out of world feel. The tennis world was shocked when the big man started pulling out the most deft and well-timed of drop shots in Paris last fall. This feel is translated to his net play which is assisted by his extremely long wingspan.

I would also be remiss to exclude the fact that Janowicz possesses absolutely shocking movement for a guy of his height. His court coverage and all-around speed are unbelievable and frankly unprecedented for a guy of his stature.

Ultimately, if you compare Janowicz’s game to the other young phenoms on tour, it becomes evident the Pole’s game has more dimensions. He has more weapons on court than any of the other young talents and certainly can do more than almost all of the big guys. I could go on and on praising the ability of this guy, but I think he’d prefer to prove how good he is on court.

As we head into the second week of Wimbledon, Janowicz is two matches away from a likely semifinal encounter with Andy Murray. If Janowicz does end up facing Murray, expect the Pole to display his full repertoire of shot making backed by a supreme level of confidence for Centre Court on Friday.

Don’t look now, but a week from today, we could very well be watching Jerzy Janowicz step on to Centre Court as a Wimbledon finalist.


http://www.tennisgrandstand.com/2013/06/30/jerzy-janowicz-ready-to-rise-above-the-rest/

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Post by socal1976 on Mon 01 Jul 2013, 9:51 pm

In summation because it is a long article the writer touches on some the same things I have been saying about Jerzy. He is not just another tall serve machine, there are other dimensions to his game. The big groundies off both sides, the drop shots, competent at net, and he has some potential in the return game as well. He will never be a great returner but if he can become an above average returner the sky is the limit for him, he does a good job of taking the second return early. He does that better than any of the big men today in my opinion. And his movement is better than any of the other big tall guys as well.

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Post by JubbaIsle on Mon 01 Jul 2013, 10:21 pm

To be honest, I'm not sure he's ready for a final yet, maybe a couple of years, but for now, his service return is rubbish and he's not good with a stretched backhand. He has difficulty perpetuating long rallies as he is a little impatient, its a learning curve on that one, but he will have to go to the corners a lot if he comes up against Murray and in a concerted attack in those areas he is not that accurate enough consistently.

His service is strong but can break down under pressure as we saw against Melzer, but it means his opponent will have to be a good returner, someone who can read the patterns, again this is an area where Murray excels.

Janowicz 24th seed  is up against Kubot 25th seed who put Paire away with ease, so its not going to be easy for him, but I expect him to win. If Murray beats Verdasco, it'll be a semi showdown and I can only see a win for Andy here, it may take 5 sets to do it, but JJ's volatility when he's pushed will be telling.

On the face of it, if all things had gone to seeding, he'd have faced Federer today and Nadal on Weds. I don't think he would have been good enough to beat them both on a good day, so in a way he's lucky (if you see what I mean) to be in the quarters imo, but hey, he is and Fed and Nadal aint, so good luck to him.

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Post by Danny_1982 on Mon 01 Jul 2013, 10:35 pm

I agree with all the comments above about him not having the all round game of Murray, of course he doesn't. But 140mph serves solve a lot of problems.

If he serves 70% or so he can beat anyone, and I really mean anyone. That is why he worries me. Murray could make no errors, 40 winners and still lose.

Karlovic pushed Murray to 4 sets last year, and he has only a serve. He has no other assets. Jerzy moves better, plays better, and serves better than Karlovic. He has to be a threat. I hope to god he gets knocked out against Kubot but I don't think he will.

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Post by Silver on Mon 01 Jul 2013, 10:45 pm

I'm really hoping that he kicks on from this run, particularly if he reaches the SF. It should give him belief, and provided he keeps analysing his own game and trying to improve, then who knows? As you say Danny, that kind of monstrous serve solves a whole lot of problems, but he also has the capability to fill the holes in the all-around game that other huge servers have.

socal's been saying this stuff for a while, highly perceptive clap  I was early on the bandwagon too (after Paris), but wasn't quite as convinced - he really does look like he's building on early promise, though.

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Post by banbrotam on Mon 01 Jul 2013, 10:57 pm

One thing that makes JJ a threat is that Paris is arguably the fastest Masters and so he obviously loves fast surfaces

Friday is supposed to be the 2nd day of the hot spell and hence the conditions could be very fast on CC

However, for some strange sadistic reason Murray just loves taking on one paced hard hitters, although in fairness JJ is better than that

But, I'm not certain that elbow and allowing the out of form Melzer get a couple of sets means he'll get past Wednesday never mind Friday

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Post by carrieg4 on Mon 01 Jul 2013, 11:11 pm

No doubt he is a great player and I am looking forward to seeing how Murray deals with him if they both get there. However, I am not worried yet..........

Listening to some, he needs to come with his own theme tune

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIOxl-d7Pp0

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Post by time please on Mon 01 Jul 2013, 11:32 pm

I haven't seen a JJ match from start to finish but what I have seen this tournament has been very exciting - not least because it really feels like it should be time for one of the young guys to reach the latter stages of a big tournament.  It's fun to see a serious challenger emerge, and I'm sure he will come through against his fellow Pole, Kubot, and he must take huge experience and confidence from this great run to kick on through the US season.

Confidently expect Murray to beat him fairly comfortably on current form.

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Post by invisiblecoolers on Mon 01 Jul 2013, 11:38 pm

Danny_1982 wrote:I agree with all the comments above about him not having the all round game of Murray, of course he doesn't. But 140mph serves solve a lot of problems.

If he serves 70% or so he can beat anyone, and I really mean anyone. That is why he worries me. Murray could make no errors, 40 winners and still lose.

Karlovic pushed Murray to 4 sets last year, and he has only a serve. He has no other assets. Jerzy moves better, plays better, and serves better than Karlovic. He has to be a threat. I hope to god he gets knocked out against Kubot but I don't think he will.

Well if Murray gets knocked out then we can hand the cup to Nole now, I am not sure somebody gonna beat Djoko outside Murray, however I am hoping Del Boy steps up in the quarters against Ferrer and semi's against Nole.Hug 

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Post by socal1976 on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 1:24 am

banbrotam wrote:One thing that makes JJ a threat is that Paris is arguably the fastest Masters and so he obviously loves fast surfaces

Friday is supposed to be the 2nd day of the hot spell and hence the conditions could be very fast on CC

However, for some strange sadistic reason Murray just loves taking on one paced hard hitters, although in fairness JJ is better than that

But, I'm not certain that elbow and allowing the out of form Melzer get a couple of sets means he'll get past Wednesday never mind Friday

That is the thing as Danny touched on banbro, you are right but if JJ serves 70 percent or something crazy like that the way the tournament is going he can beat Murray. Now of course Murray would be the favorite, what if he hits 10 or so aces a set and serves for a high percentage? Players can go into a zone with their serve on grass and if they have other aspects to their game can capitalize even further.

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Post by lydian on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 7:19 am

Hot/dry spells may make the balls go a little faster but the surface itself is slowed right down as it becomes more gritty/grippy and much bouncier due to being harder. Dry Wimbledon's (barring the first few lusher days) push the favour in the direction of the baseliners.

For example, there have only been 7 Championships in total where rain has never affected play...particularly hot ones from those included 1976, 1977 and 1993. These give stronger pointers as to why Borg did so well in those long hot dry summers of 76-80, when the courts were chewed up within a week to resemble hard straw mats, and why a guy like Courier also got to the final in 1993 (late June was very hot and dry...up to 29c).

1976Sum ups my thoughts very well about Janowicz the prospect, but someone else wrote it Hqdefault

1993Sum ups my thoughts very well about Janowicz the prospect, but someone else wrote it Hqdefault

There is no rain forecast for the remainder of the Champs and its mooted to be high 20s this weekend, 29c on Sunday. In which case its hard to look beyond a Murray/Djokovic final, with Djokovic the likely winner.
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Post by Guest on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 8:08 am

I can't say that I am immersed with JJ, but the guy is a talent. I think the thing he lacks is stamina and the mentality. Almost like Ivanisevic in way. Goran was a great mover for such a tall guy. This is the problem JJ faces if he is serve breaks down, he doesn't have anything else in the locker and he struggled with Melzer yesterday.

I think Dimitrov looks the more likely for me to succeed given a stronger mindset will help him come on leaps and bounds and maybe being with Maria some of that grit and determination will rub off on him (no pun)

JJ impressed me against Almagro. His finest performance thus far. It was an intense level and if he can repeat that on a consistent basis, the trophies will come his way. However consistency will prove to his nemesis IMO.

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Post by Josiah Maiestas on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 10:01 am

Pete Sampras would be envious of this Pole's weaponry
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Post by Guest on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 10:17 am

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Pete Sampras would be envious of this Pole's weaponry

I will share this sentiment should JJ win 15 Slams Smile

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Post by lydian on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 11:13 am

Yeah by the same age Sampras had won 3 slams, 2 Masters and 22 other titles. Jerzy has won 0 career titles and is 23yo in 4 months time. He's a talent of sorts to be sure but loving the hyperbole Jerzy bandwagoning going on here.
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Post by Born Slippy on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 11:31 am

He's a talented guy. Will be interesting to see how he deals with a big SF if he can beat Kubot.

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Post by slashermcguirk on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 12:44 pm

I would expect Murray to beat Jerzy but I do think its a potential banana skin. I agree with Socal that he could be a real handful and is a definite star in the making. All the pressure would be on Murray so if a relaxed Jerzy comes out swinging, it could be a very tense match.

Although Murray generally does well against big hitters, I wouldnt agree in all cases. Berdych has an excellent record against Murray, big serving with that flat forehand has done a lot of damage. Even when Murray did win their match at US open last year, a lot of that was down to the really windy conditions which through Berdych off with his high ball toss. I seem to recall Gonzalez also punishing Murray with big flat groundstrokes at the French a few years back too.

The 1st set could prove very important, Murray wins it and I could see Jerzy's head dropping. If Jerzy gets that set and brings the momentum forward, he could be very dangerous. I would expect Murray in 4 sets in that one.............assuming they both get there. No guarantees given what we have seen the past week.

If Novak gets through Berdych, i would expect him to reach the final. Very tough match though. There is no doubt that if Djokovic reaches the final, he will have come through some very tough players to get there.

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Post by banbrotam on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 1:06 pm

I actually think Youzny is a more difficult opponent for Murray, simply because he has the 'poorest' stats against multi-skilled playerss

It would have to be a returning off day for Murray, as if the courts are doing what Lydian predicts (and I understand what you were saying my friend) then this makes it easier for Andy to run everything down - Melzer looked amazingly unfit and only got going after the first set, when he'd had enough of JJ's wish to be the male version of Azerenka!!

And that's another thing, I'd expect a quiet JJ - reigning in his histrionics, simply because he'll get told that his best chance is not to wind up / motivate Murray and the CC would get on his backs. But wouldn't this also dampen his game down?

Assuming they both get there!!

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Post by Danny_1982 on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 1:12 pm

Slasher - Agree with most of that. Berdych's H2H with Murray is slightly skewed by the fact that he's 3-0 up clay though. That doesn't render the stats useless of course, but you or I would have a chance against Murray on clay!

Away from the dirt, I believe the record is 4-2 to Murray...

But you are right in what you say, Murray's surprising defeats have primarily come against big hitters. There hasn't been a surprise result for a long long time though, his only slam losses over the last few years have been to other top 4 players and Ferrer on the clay.

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Post by slashermcguirk on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 2:05 pm

Fair point Danny_1982, Murray has really improved in recent times against big hitters. I think Del Potro did beat him recently though and Wawrinka who hits big ground strokes also has troubled Murray in the past, seem to recall Wawrinka beating Murray in either the US open or Aus open?? He also brought Murray to 5 sets at wimbledon in an epic match on centre court. They have both improved dramatically since then.

Dont get me wrong, I expect Murray to reach the final but if he has an off day and gets uptight and angry with himself, a shock is not totally out of the question.

Novak has a much tougher draw to reach the final, he has his only obstacles ahead !!

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Post by Josiah Maiestas on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 2:36 pm

lydian wrote:Yeah by the same age Sampras had won 3 slams, 2 Masters and 22 other titles. Jerzy has won 0 career titles and is 23yo in 4 months time. He's a talent of sorts to be sure but loving the hyperbole Jerzy bandwagoning going on here.
Pete was only successful in a S&V era titles won before 2003 are pretty irrelevant to me
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Post by Danny_1982 on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 3:05 pm

slashermcguirk wrote:Fair point Danny_1982, Murray has really improved in recent times against big hitters. I think Del Potro did beat him recently though and Wawrinka who hits big ground strokes also has troubled Murray in the past, seem to recall Wawrinka beating Murray in either the US open or Aus open?? He also brought Murray to 5 sets at wimbledon in an epic match on centre court. They have both improved dramatically since then.

Dont get me wrong, I expect Murray to reach the final but if he has an off day and gets uptight and angry with himself, a shock is not totally out of the question.

Novak has a much tougher draw to reach the final, he has his only obstacles ahead !!

Novak does have, on paper, a tough draw. But if that draw turns out to be Berdych and Ferrer then I don't see him being troubled against either. He has really dominant results against both. Delpo would be different as he has a game that could trouble him, and beat him on grass in the Olympics last year.

However I don't see Delpo getting there as he has to get through Ferrer, something he's failed to do the last 4 times they've met. So whilst Novak's route looks tough I don't think it will prove to be... Unless Delpo beats Ferrer.

For Muzza, I'm sure he'll get past Verdasci in - at worst - 4 sets. Then JJ I imagine in the semi, which does concern me a bit as I've articulated above and on other articles.

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Post by Danny_1982 on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 3:10 pm

Verdasci?.... Damn iphone!!

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Post by socal1976 on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 4:58 pm

slashermcguirk wrote:I would expect Murray to beat Jerzy but I do think its a potential banana skin. I agree with Socal that he could be a real handful and is a definite star in the making. All the pressure would be on Murray so if a relaxed Jerzy comes out swinging, it could be a very tense match.

Although Murray generally does well against big hitters, I wouldnt agree in all cases. Berdych has an excellent record against Murray, big serving with that flat forehand has done a lot of damage. Even when Murray did win their match at US open last year, a lot of that was down to the really windy conditions which through Berdych off with his high ball toss. I seem to recall Gonzalez also punishing Murray with big flat groundstrokes at the French a few years back too.

The 1st set could prove very important, Murray wins it and I could see Jerzy's head dropping. If Jerzy gets that set and brings the momentum forward, he could be very dangerous. I would expect Murray in 4 sets in that one.............assuming they both get there. No guarantees given what we have seen the past week.

If Novak gets through Berdych, i would expect him to reach the final. Very tough match though. There is no doubt that if Djokovic reaches the final, he will have come through some very tough players to get there.

I agree with this slasher, Murray should be favored but I think it will be tense 4 close sets is my call. But as you say no guarantee that he will get through his quarterfinal match at all. But he is a real talent in my opinion, with a unique skill set for a player of his size and raw athleticism we have not seen yet. I mean when you realize that his three best shots are his serve, forehand, and drop shot it kind of sums up his range of skills so to speak. He can volley a bit as well as he is a pretty good doubles player it seems as well. When a player who is six eight and hits 140 plus executes a perfect Old Man's one-two punch of drop shot and lob over the opponent, well it just is not fair. The mix of size, speed, power, and touch is very unique I hope he can adequately harness it.

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Post by socal1976 on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 5:01 pm

lydian wrote:Yeah by the same age Sampras had won 3 slams, 2 Masters and 22 other titles. Jerzy has won 0 career titles and is 23yo in 4 months time. He's a talent of sorts to be sure but loving the hyperbole Jerzy bandwagoning going on here.

No sane individual claimed that Janowicz is Sampras. But he has two top ten wins and a few top 20 wins already in one season of play and is in the quarters of wimbeldon. A master's final and wimby quarter within less than a year is a good first season of ATP play. And as we have seen in a dozen or more cases players are maturing and reaching their prime at a later age. If current trends persist Janowicz is still 3-5 years off his prime. That being said of course he still a prospect and has not accomplished that much.

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Post by lydian on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 5:23 pm

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Pete Sampras would be envious of this Pole's weaponry
socal1976 wrote:No sane individual claimed that Janowicz is Sampras
Are you calling Josiah insane socal? Lol
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Post by JubbaIsle on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 7:02 pm

If JJ can keep cool and not get impatient, he'll have a chance to take a couple of sets off Murray, but when his serve gets returned, if its deep, then he will have to make Murray move or the momentum shifts to the other side of the net.

Anyone see his compete meltdown in Aussie this year ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hfTDuISM4U

If he can rein that in, and concentrate on his tennis, he'll be a top ten player very soon.

Unless he melts under his own heat...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUXB5YAlK6U

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Sum ups my thoughts very well about Janowicz the prospect, but someone else wrote it Empty Re: Sum ups my thoughts very well about Janowicz the prospect, but someone else wrote it

Post by socal1976 on Tue 02 Jul 2013, 8:14 pm

Jubba, I think his attitude will help him, he is used to being combative and won't care if the fans get on him. His prickliness can be an effective defense mechanism and a means of getting in the head of the opposition. I think he did intimidate Almagro to some extent and get under his skin. Players today aren't used to that kind of treatment and it throws them off.

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Sum ups my thoughts very well about Janowicz the prospect, but someone else wrote it Empty Re: Sum ups my thoughts very well about Janowicz the prospect, but someone else wrote it

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