earths surface temperature over the last 130 years

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Post by McLaren on Wed 31 Jul 2013, 6:27 am

Video:

Robert Nemiroff (MTU) & Jerry Bonnell (UMCP) wrote:Explanation: How has the surface temperature of Earth been changing? To help find out, Earth scientists collected temperature records from over 1000 weather stations around the globe since 1880, and combined them with modern satellite data. The above movie dramatizes the result showing 130 years of planet-wide temperature changes relative to the local average temperatures in the mid-1900s. In the above global maps, red means warmer and blue means colder. On average, the display demonstrates that the temperature on Earth has increased by nearly one degree Celsius over the past 130 years, and many of the warmest years on record have occurred only recently. Global climate change is of more than passing interest -- it is linked to global weather severity and coastal sea water levels.

source: http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130731.html


Thoughts?
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Post by dummy_half on Wed 31 Jul 2013, 11:51 am

Mac

How much of a serious discussion do you want?

Pretty well accepted by everyone that global surface temperatures increased by a bit under 1 deg C from the start of the 20th century- best estimate seems to be 0.8 +/- 0.1 deg C, but it should be noted that the reliability of the temperature records varies both with time and with location (i.e. newer records are more systematically collected, and the quality of record keeping is better in western Europe and North America than in other parts of the world).

Worth also noting that the warming has not been montonic, but appears to have occurred in two pulses (roughly 1910 to 1940 and 1976 to 1998), that appear to corelate with the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) - the years between 1940 and 1976 showed a slight cooling trend, and the last decade or so showing no statistically significant trend to either heating or cooling. Indeed, this recent lack of warming is causing some reassessment of the relative importance of GHGs, natural variability and cyclic / periodic ocean heat uptake and release (the last of which was poorly understood when the 'Greenhouse Effect' theory was first put forward).

One thing that should be emphasised is that most scientists who have looked into this accept that the temperature effect of doubling CO2 levels should cause about 1 -1.2 deg C warming all else being equal. The problem is that in a dynamic system, all else is not equal (or at least held constant), and most model projections amplify this warming by increases in atmospheric water vapour, leading to the roughly 3 deg C per doubling climate sensitivity. Some recent real world studies are starting to favour rather lower sensitivity estimates (1.5 to 2 deg C) and then you have Prof Lindzen's research suggesting that clouds, especially tropical cloud formation, has a strongly limiting effect and that the sensitivity may be as low as 0.6 deg C per doubling of CO2.

Me? I'm a geologist by education, so am well aware that climate changes anyway without the requirement for external forcing. The CO2 / AGW hypothesis has a plausible mechanism (indeed, the absorption of long-wave IR radiation at around 14 micron wavelength by CO2 is one of the few elements of all this that can be demonstrated in the laboratory) but the actual corelation between CO2 levels and temperature increases is quite poor, which suggests that it is a real effect but probably significantly weaker than has normally been stated.

Of course, none of the above in any way attempts to answer the 'value' questions of whether warming poses a significant risk and what should be done about it - these are not questions that I as a scientist have the tools to address beyond application of conventional engineering principles. That is, if we don't know what is going to happen with regard to (for example) sea level rise, build in an increased margin of safety in design of any infrastructure that could potentially be affected by increased sea level during its design life.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Wed 31 Jul 2013, 1:33 pm

Fascinating respose, thanks Dummy!

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Post by McLaren on Wed 31 Jul 2013, 2:25 pm

Great respons dummy

i actually just thought it was a cool video but some serious discussion would also be good. Even if just some climate change deniers rear their heads for some mockery that will do.
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Post by TopHat24/7 on Wed 31 Jul 2013, 2:44 pm

Is there a gradienet of 'denier'?

As Dummy's superb response casts some doubts on the strength and/or extent of claims made by the climate change community, therefore is he a 'denier' or is it just Clarkson-esque people that refuse to admit anything at all?

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Post by McLaren on Thu 01 Aug 2013, 4:44 am

Tophat

I think climate change and the human causation of accelerated climate change are almost scientific facts (the usual figure being at least 98% of climate scientists accept the two phenomenon).

What is up for debate, refinement of theory and so on is the magnitude of of each.  I believe even this debate regards ranges that are all rather worrying for our future.
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Post by rodders on Wed 14 Aug 2013, 10:05 am

I admit to being a layman about this but I don't think the earths climate change can be discussed in isolation from what is happening outside our planet.... such as the weakening of our magnetic field, the accelerated moving of the north pole, the collapse of our suns heliosphere, the weak solar activity in the sun during the present cycle and interplanetary warming experienced on the other planets within the solar system etc.
 
Growing evidence, albeit perhaps circumstantial suggests bigger things are afoot and that periodic expreme change is upon us - as has been shown to have occured numerous times,with some regularity, in our earths history.
 
If I was a betting man I'd say we have already begun the next Ice age, that many goverments and scientists already know/suspect this and that man made global warming is a politically and ecomomically motivated scam used to keep people plodding along as well, as line energy companies profits.

Thats my penniesworth anyhow.....
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Post by Luckless Pedestrian on Tue 03 Sep 2013, 9:07 am

I'll begin by saying I'm not a scientist,  nor particularly scientifically minded; but I'm sceptical about the man-made aspect of climate change, not least because it's now referred to as 'climate change' rather than 'global warming'. You hear headlines about sea levels being higher than ever recorded and there being less ice at the poles than ever recorded, but that means very little unless you assume that there was never any fluctuation in sea levels / ice at the poles before we started measuring. We know that the earth's been cooler in the past and we know that the earth's been warmer in the past; it seems typically grandiose of us to assume that we're responsible for the current warming.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Tue 03 Sep 2013, 9:29 am

I also don't like that now the pace of global warming has dramatically dropped off, CC scientists/theorists are so quick to just disregard this as a transient blip in the long-term trend. Feels to convenient.

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Post by ONETWOFOREVER on Tue 03 Sep 2013, 1:47 pm

Do you want more lies???

or do you want the TRUTH?

I will give you the truth. So called Global warming and Earth surface temperature is a direct result of the man made weather modification, manipulation project called HAARP. This device or machine has been in the works for years and was administered by the elite braverian sect otherwise known as the ILLUMINATI as a way to control the weather.

Weather modification is in the hands of the secret military who want to use it for weather warfare. Most of the hurricanes you see today are a direct result of this modification project who knows where it will end. The evil of the elitists knows no bounds we must be vigilant. The UN debated environmental modification techniques way back in the 70's. There is also plans to control temperature and the weather via space based solor power
networks which purpose is to MICROWAVE yes MICROWAVE portions of large HURRICANES.



Oh your welcome.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Tue 03 Sep 2013, 1:56 pm

Rolling Eyes 

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Post by Champagne_Socialist on Tue 03 Sep 2013, 10:49 pm

ONETWOFOREVER wrote:Do you want more lies???

or do you want the TRUTH?

I will give you the truth. So called Global warming and Earth surface temperature is a direct result of the man made weather modification, manipulation project called HAARP. This device or machine has been in the works for years and was administered by the elite braverian sect otherwise known as the ILLUMINATI as a way to control the weather.

Weather modification is in the hands of the secret military who want to use it for weather warfare. Most of the hurricanes you see today are a direct result of this modification project who knows where it will end. The evil of the elitists knows no bounds we must be vigilant. The UN debated environmental modification techniques way back in the 70's. There is also plans to control temperature and the weather via space based solor power
networks which purpose is to MICROWAVE yes MICROWAVE portions of large HURRICANES.



Oh your welcome.
Stop looking for attention posting utter nonsense that not even you believe

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Post by Hero on Tue 03 Sep 2013, 11:14 pm

The Owl of Minerva has your IP address 1-2, we're always watching. Shocked 

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Post by STC on Fri 06 Sep 2013, 10:04 am

ONETWOFOREVER wrote:Do you want more lies???

or do you want the TRUTH?

I will give you the truth. So called Global warming and Earth surface temperature is a direct result of the man made weather modification, manipulation project called HAARP. This device or machine has been in the works for years and was administered by the elite braverian sect otherwise known as the ILLUMINATI as a way to control the weather.

Weather modification is in the hands of the secret military who want to use it for weather warfare. Most of the hurricanes you see today are a direct result of this modification project who knows where it will end. The evil of the elitists knows no bounds we must be vigilant. The UN debated environmental modification techniques way back in the 70's. There is also plans to control temperature and the weather via space based solor power
networks which purpose is to MICROWAVE yes MICROWAVE portions of large HURRICANES.



Oh your welcome.
Oh you're mental.
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