The v2 Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

OWGR week 12

+3
pedro
incontinentia
super_realist
7 posters

Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Mon 17 Mar 2014 - 21:23

Some of this info was included in the OWGR Week 11 thread... but I'll summarize here to start week 12 OWGR

Preliminary OWGR winners share estimate for week the Arnold Palmer is 58.  As of Sunday night the field was looking to be a 62, but with the announcements Monday of 5 WD's (Jason Day, Charl Schwartzel, Castro, Driscoll and Levin)... the field has dropped to a 58.  

Here's the OWGR for the API for the past 10 years...  

2014 - 58  (est)
2013 - 66
2012 - 56
2011 - 58
2010 - 60
2009 - 60
2008 - 62
2007 - 68
2006 - 68
2005 - 70
2004 - 68

NOTE:  But please see the OWGR week 11 thread for some good Monday discussion on Web.com players having issues getting starts... some discussion on the make up of the Arnold Palmer field... and GPB has posted some scenarios on #1  (GPB... can you re post a summary of those here?  )

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by GPB Mon 17 Mar 2014 - 21:33

Per Robo's request

(Assumes neither Adam or Tiger plays San Antonio or Houston.)

If Adam Scott wins Bay Hill (and earns 58 points) my UNOFFICIAL calculations for his OWGR for the next three weeks:

Mar 24: 9.35
Mar 31: 9.20
Apr 07: 9.27 (goes up due to losing a tournament from his divisor)

If Tiger fails* to score any OWGR Points at Bay Hill, his OWGR average for the next three weeks:

Mar 24: 9.48
Mar 31: 9.27
Apr 07: 9.07

So if Adam wins this week and Tiger whiffies, Adam will be number 1 going into the Masters.

Actually Tiger has to finish Solo 10th or better to be at 9.27 or better on April 7th.



If Tiger does not play Bay Hill, his projected OWGR does not change (because of 40 tourney min divisor). Adam will still "Westwood" the #1 spot on even if the OWGR rating of BayHill falls to level 50.

Edit: Looks like Prince Dracula agrees with my projections:

https://twitter.com/VC606/status/445707088841695232


Last edited by GPB on Mon 17 Mar 2014 - 23:51; edited 1 time in total

GPB

Posts : 7283
Join date : 2012-02-10
Location : Midwest, USA

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by GPB Mon 17 Mar 2014 - 21:45

Robo: Thanks for posting the OWGR history of Bay Hill.

I hadn't realized that it's rating had been hurt by the rescheduling the Players and the introduction of the FEDEX playoffs.

GPB

Posts : 7283
Join date : 2012-02-10
Location : Midwest, USA

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Mon 17 Mar 2014 - 23:51

GPB wrote:Robo:  Thanks for posting the OWGR history of Bay Hill.

I hadn't realized that it's rating had been hurt by the rescheduling the Players and the introduction of the FEDEX playoffs.
Huh?  I don't see the connection.  IMO the key element that hurt Bay Hill was the tinkering with the course there for a few year which was considerably panned by players and led to defections from which it's never fully recovered. IMO the "somewhat" of a resurgence last year was just a case of the stars aligning properly (but for no particular reason I can see)... but going forward this one's probably destined to average 60 range event now instead of the high 60's it once enjoyed.  Maybe a little higher if the Florida area players happen to be higher ranked in any given year... a little less if they're not.

The Memorial was looking like it was declining a bit in the late 90's too... but that event seems to have recovered back to it prior strength... not sure why it did and Bay Hill hasn't... the players seemed to indicate they liked Bay Hill better once Arnie "put it back".

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Tue 18 Mar 2014 - 0:36

Memorial is a great course.
Not saying Bay Hill isn't, but Memorial is a GREAT course! And the Pro's clearly like it much better.
Perhaps Number One not being Number One for a year or so in there hurt the rating, plus it's a fluke to have Adam Scott playing (first time in five yrs), not to mention him at # 2 and Henrik at #3.
Lots of swings and roundabouts but I'd say a downward trend is significant.
There'll be a "Byron Nelson" effect if Arnie returns to Latrobe in a box.

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Tue 18 Mar 2014 - 0:40

As of 3/17 5:00 PM... the Sponsor exemptions for the API are showing as: C Campbell, Casey, Chopra, Compton, Duval, Goosen, Harrington, Holmes, Immelman, Janzen, Koepka, O'Hair, Zach Olsen, Owen, Pampling, Pride, Putnam, Saunders, Nathan Smith. That's a total of 19 against an allocation of 18. However there are two "foreign" exemptions that are NOT being indicated... Koepka would qualify and his might have been thus converted.

Earlier Roto World was reporting Swafford was in as an SE (or at least that's the way i read it at the time, and RW doesn't indicate the same now), but either way... it appears Swafford is now being shown as gaining entry off the alt list.

Also Lingmerth is in for Huh WD... event remains at 58 level.

Also the early March 05, 2014 API press release indicated Uihlein was getting an SE, but I don't see him in the field. It also indicated Villegas as an SE but it turns out he didn't need one. Compton, Owen and Holmes are the "new" SE names replacing Uihlein, Villegas and filling the 19th spot.

Kwini... in the prior thread... I confused the Greg's... Owen and Davis. It's Davis that's in via the alt list... Owen is in as a SE as you had originally stated.

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Tue 18 Mar 2014 - 0:51

Yup, I couldn't figure out the Swafford thing either - altho' he's clearly a favoured SE when he needs one. Is he related to the SEC Official also called Swafford?
(Lingmerth is playing well right now, but all ball-striking, no putt.)

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Tue 18 Mar 2014 - 1:27

kwinigolfer wrote:Memorial is a great course.
Not saying Bay Hill isn't, but Memorial is a GREAT course! And the Pro's clearly like it much better.
Perhaps Number One not being Number One for a year or so in there hurt the rating, plus it's a fluke to have Adam Scott playing (first time in five yrs), not to mention him at # 2 and Henrik at #3.
Lots of swings and roundabouts but I'd say a downward trend is significant.
There'll be a "Byron Nelson" effect if Arnie returns to Latrobe in a box.
I think you have it correct on Muirfield Village vs Bay Hill. In the 2012 Players poll, Muirfield rated 6th favorite on tour, Bay Hill #33 (out of 52). Now personally... I've played both, and while so different from each other, they're both pretty close to equals in "enjoyability" for the mid to low hdcp player. One a great example of classic MidWest golf with the elevations, trees and such... the other a great example of Florida golf.

And sadly... you're probably correct about the Nelson effect at Bay Hill post Arnie... at least to some extent. But what it does have going for it is it's spot between the WGC's and Masters... still a good spot for those working their game into "major shape" and convenient for the ever growing Florida posse. But I suspect Houston would regularly equal or overtake it in field strength post Arnie (even though Redstone, now GC of Houston was rated below Bay Hill in player popularity in the poll)

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Tue 18 Mar 2014 - 3:09

Ah, the date!
Of course, the Nelson had a decent date when Lord Byron was still alive, and the first year after his death the Tour changed the date and the top pros (no names!), who had fawned all over him wouldn't play. I still can't believe they (Tour and Pros) did that to the Salesmanship Club, let alone the sponsors, and fortunately they reverted back to the old date and the tournament seems stronger now. Been lucky too with recent winners who have dutifully returned.

Never played either but walked Memorial a few times and the place is drop-dead perfect, to this layman at least, except for the stench behind the pond on #12!

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by GPB Tue 18 Mar 2014 - 15:10

Adam Scott is very vulnerable to losing the #2 spot this week.

Due to the added tournament in his divisor this week, he actually starts Bay Hill behind Henrik Stenson.

If Adam finishes out of the top 20, he will fall to #3...even if Stenson Misses the Cut.

Adam has to earn about 4 more OWGR points than Stenson to keep the #2 spot.

GPB

Posts : 7283
Join date : 2012-02-10
Location : Midwest, USA

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by super_realist Tue 18 Mar 2014 - 15:44

9C Can't be far away from losing #1.

 Ale 

super_realist

Posts : 28800
Join date : 2011-01-29
Location : Stavanger, Norway

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by incontinentia Tue 18 Mar 2014 - 16:06

super_realist wrote:9C Can't be far away from losing #1.

 Ale 
Will he be #1 this time next month?
Not by the hairs of his chinny chin chins.
incontinentia
incontinentia

Posts : 3960
Join date : 2012-01-06
Location : Ireland

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Tue 18 Mar 2014 - 21:56

With Tiger out at Bay Hill.. event drops to a 56 (just barely hanging above a 54)

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by GPB Tue 18 Mar 2014 - 22:17

robopz wrote:With Tiger out at Bay Hill..  event drops to a 56 (just barely hanging above a 54)

You sure about that?

OWGR has the SOF at 458.

Doesn't Tiger bring 53 EVR to the SOF? which brings it down to 405.

And his replacement, Brice Garnett is ranked 374th so he does not add anything to the SoF.

It takes an SOF of 406 to make it a OWGR 56.

GPB

Posts : 7283
Join date : 2012-02-10
Location : Midwest, USA

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Tue 18 Mar 2014 - 22:47

GPB wrote:
robopz wrote:With Tiger out at Bay Hill..  event drops to a 56 (just barely hanging above a 54)

You sure about that?

OWGR has the SOF at 458.

Doesn't Tiger bring 53 EVR to the SOF?  which brings it down to 405.

And his replacement, Brice Garnett is ranked 374th so he does not add anything to the SoF.

It takes an SOF of 406 to make it a OWGR 56.
you could be right... I was going off my preliminary sheet which still had it at a 460 before the WD... I hadn't reconciled against the OWGRs published 458

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Wed 19 Mar 2014 - 11:59

I would think George Coetzee would just sneak in to the Top Fifty if he wins this week's SA tournament.

Let's hope this week's "Arnie" is remembered more for who is here, and not for who isn't.

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by super_realist Wed 19 Mar 2014 - 12:23

Back injuries are not really something from which you make miraculous recoveries and frequent recurrences are common

 Yahoo Laugh thumbsup Ale cake guinness RedWine 

super_realist

Posts : 28800
Join date : 2011-01-29
Location : Stavanger, Norway

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by incontinentia Wed 19 Mar 2014 - 12:32

Super- maybe Tiger could have surgery and enjoy a few more years at the top??
incontinentia
incontinentia

Posts : 3960
Join date : 2012-01-06
Location : Ireland

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by super_realist Wed 19 Mar 2014 - 12:38

Possibly inco, but back injuries have a habit of being long term and troublesome, and given 9C's moronic swing, hardly like to get better.

super_realist

Posts : 28800
Join date : 2011-01-29
Location : Stavanger, Norway

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Wed 19 Mar 2014 - 14:02

GPB... Im still coming out with a 408 total ERV... and level 56 at this time... (not counting any WD's or additions since Gannett in for Woods). I'll double check again if OWGR update doesn't match...

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by pedro Wed 19 Mar 2014 - 19:18

Weren't Seve, Ollie and Norman's careers all halted by back injuries?

pedro

Posts : 7353
Join date : 2011-01-27

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by GPB Wed 19 Mar 2014 - 19:49

Robo: You are correct, I am getting 408 too.

===========

Stenson needs about 65 between Bay Hill and Houston to pass Tiger in the OWGR going into the Masters.

Assuming BH is OWGR 56 and Houston is OWGR 54

A Win and a third place will be enough.
Two second place finishes should be enough.

It is theoretically possible for Tiger to be #3 going into the Masters.

Adam needs to win APInv
Stenson needs to earn ~65 points between APInv and Houston.

GPB

Posts : 7283
Join date : 2012-02-10
Location : Midwest, USA

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Fri 21 Mar 2014 - 0:49

56 it is then.
Only 14 at Investec but, if Georgie Coetzee wins it (he's T3 after Round 1), I reckon he'll be hearing from Silly Billy Payne.

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Fri 21 Mar 2014 - 13:03

A two-shot lead after Round 2 for Coetzee - Silly Billy thumbing thru' his Rolodex . . . . .

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by GPB Fri 21 Mar 2014 - 18:09

kwinigolfer wrote:A two-shot lead after Round 2 for Coetzee - Silly Billy thumbing thru' his Rolodex . . . . .

Winning the Investec Cup on the Sunshine Tour could get Coetzee to as high as 47th. That would be before any API results are in and Coetzee would be passing Kirk (-3) , Woodland (E) and Frannie (-6) to get to 47th.

And then he would have to dodge the players at San Antonio.

But glad to see he is taking care of business in South Africa.

GPB

Posts : 7283
Join date : 2012-02-10
Location : Midwest, USA

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Sat 22 Mar 2014 - 15:02

Turning into a bit of a squeaker for Georgie Porgie, a one-shot lead after 54 holes.

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Sat 22 Mar 2014 - 21:03

OK... I think Adam Scott's situation is well chronicled by others now... but just briefly to recap...

Adam Scott - Assuming he goes on to win the API... he won't take #1 just yet... but he'll be so close that by attrition and divisor changes he would take #1 before the Masters. (assuming neither TW or Adam play Houston)

But wait... there's more.  Even if Adam Scott goes on to win this week... Henrik Stenson could possibly stick his head in the #1 race before the Masters with a high enough finish this week and a win at Houston... or maybe even another high finish in Houston (probably a couple of 2nds if Houston rates high enough which it should).  He needs roughly 63-65 points through Houston to take #1.   But the "non win" scenarios look like a moot point now...  he's finished his 3rd round at the API 10 shots back... So it probably comes down to him needing a win at Houston.

So... with that... lets look at some others... My intention was to focus on others who might finish 2nd... but as of now it appears as to a golf tournament broke out in the last few hours and others have more than a decent chance (unless AS stretches it out again)...  so first... here are some projections for some top players who are in contention at the API.

Of course a win for the non qualified in the Arnold Palmer is a golden ticket to the Masters... but not for the Investec

Chesson Hadley - not qualified for the Masters and could move his as high as #30 with a win. A 2nd place gets him as high as #35... and anything as low as a 4th place finish probably has him safe inside the top-50 this week and next.

Keegan Bradley - Could move as high as #14 with a win... #18 with a 2nd.

Matt Every - Not Masters eligible yet, and the win would get him as high as #43... a 2nd and he's still well outside at #62 at best.  But he's playing next week... so the key this week is just a really high finish if not the win.

Jason Kokrak - Not Masters eligible and the win would get him as high as #59.

F. Molinari - he's Masters qualified but a win could move him as high as #31.

Poulter - A win could move him as high as #12... a 2nd as high as #14.

Current Imaginary #5 Patrick Reed (currently T19) looks to be on pace to just about maintain his current #20 ranking... maybe gain one or two... or maybe lose a few... it's really bunched right at the #20 level... with Reed moving down to #23 after attrition and divisors applied... and before points are added for this week.  #19-25 are separated by about 1/10th of a point before points added this week.  

Investec - Sunshine Tour - George Coetzee has the lead and is the only one in the field that could get into top-50 this week with a win (as high as #46).  But not playing next week... it could be tight to hold on.  Best the non-Masters qualified Ross Fisher (currently 1-shot back) can do is win and move up to #59.  But even if George doesn't win this week.. he's probably in Houston (if he applied for an SE)... so he'd have that chance to get a win to get into the Masters (Houston gets 4 extra exemptions and Coetzee got one last year to the SHO).  Ross Fisher is another that would probably be looked up favorably for a Houston SE... as he's been supportive of the event in the past.

EDIT:   So many Fishers... and so little time... WRONG Fisher in my comments above so disregard the strike through portion (thanks Kwini)... I'll leave the last line about Ross Fisher and a possible SE to Houston if he has applied as that's still valid IMO.


Last edited by robopz on Sat 22 Mar 2014 - 23:15; edited 2 times in total

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by GPB Sat 22 Mar 2014 - 22:07

Coetzee could move to the top 50, but instead of the #46, it might only be #49

Should Coetzee win:

Frankie stays ahead of him with a 7th or better.
Kirk stays ahead of him with a 16th or better.
and Hadley passes him with a 5th or better.

If Coetzee wins and doesn't stay in the top 50, it would really s*ck. If Valero has an extra Sponsor Exemption left, I would like to see Coetzee get it (if he wins)

GPB

Posts : 7283
Join date : 2012-02-10
Location : Midwest, USA

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Sat 22 Mar 2014 - 23:00

PS: I think you have chosen the wrong Fish in South Africa - there are three but Rossko's closer to last than first. Sad to say.

Interesting day in store Sunday, above and below the equator.

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Sat 22 Mar 2014 - 23:08

I can't tell for sure... but right now I "think" at least 7 SE's are filled probably 8...

7 for sure Cameron Beckman, Branden Grace, Mike Miller, Joe Ogilvie, Peter Uihlein, Brooks Koepka and Bobby Gates.  

Beckman and Ogilvie would count as the 2 required members...
Gates would count as one of the 2 required webbies...

If I had to guess... I'd think it likely Bud Cauley is in as the 2nd Webbie SE which would make 8. But not being able to tell yet if Grace, Koepka or Uihlein got in via Special Foreign... we can't know the availability of SE's. Could be up to 3 available.

And as far as Coetzee... he would have had to applied for the Foreign Exemption 30 days ago and he would already be in if he would have gotten that i would think...  but if the unrestricted SE is available... it can be awarded at any time.

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by GPB Sun 23 Mar 2014 - 13:18

Doesn't look like Coetzee is going to win. Fifth place and 3 shots behind with 6 holes to play.

GPB

Posts : 7283
Join date : 2012-02-10
Location : Midwest, USA

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Sun 23 Mar 2014 - 13:51

Yup, it looked as if this was going to turn in to a Blaauw job, which would have made a good headline at least.
Disappointing for Coetzee, who must be absolutely knackered by now.

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Sun 23 Mar 2014 - 22:22

Quick Week 12 Ranking... Notes to follow...

Players in Bold are Masters Qualified as of this point... Those non-Masters qualified known to be playing next week are noted.

1 - ( 1 ) - 9.4779 - Tiger Woods
2 - ( 2 ) - 8.5179 - Adam Scott
3 - ( 3 ) - 8.3189 - Henrik Stenson
4 - ( 4 ) - 6.9502 - Jason Day
5 - ( 5 ) - 6.4065 - Phil Mickelson
6 - ( 6 ) - 6.1227 - Justin Rose
7 - ( 7 ) - 6.0559 - Rory McIlroy
8 - ( 9 ) - 5.9910 - Sergio Garcia
9 - ( 8 ) - 5.8882 - Dustin Johnson
10 - ( 10 ) - 5.8351 - Zach Johnson
11 - ( 11 ) - 5.4425 - Matt Kuchar
12 - ( 12 ) - 5.3338 - Bubba Watson
13 - ( 13 ) - 5.2501 - Jordan Spieth
14 - ( 15 ) - 4.7377 - Graeme McDowell
15 - ( 14 ) - 4.6201 - Steve Stricker
16 - ( 16 ) - 4.5758 - Jason Dufner
17 - ( 17 ) - 4.4942 - Charl Schwartzel
18 - ( 28 ) - 4.3697 - Keegan Bradley
19 - ( 18 ) - 4.2965 - Ian Poulter
20 - ( 19 ) - 4.2779 - Brandt Snedeker
21 - ( 22 ) - 4.0637 - Webb Simpson
22 - ( 20 ) - 4.0491 - Patrick Reed
23 - ( 25 ) - 4.0480 - Victor Dubuisson
24 - ( 24 ) - 4.0442 - Jim Furyk
25 - ( 21 ) - 4.0164 - Luke Donald
26 - ( 23 ) - 4.0034 - Hideki Matsuyama
27 - ( 26 ) - 3.9293 - Jimmy Walker
28 - ( 27 ) - 3.8022 - Jamie Donaldson
29 - ( 29 ) - 3.6730 - Thomas Bjorn
30 - ( 30 ) - 3.5029 - Graham Delaet
31 - ( 31 ) - 3.3902 - Bill Haas
32 - ( 32 ) - 3.2301 - Hunter Mahan
33 - ( 33 ) - 3.1488 - Ernie Els
34 - ( 34 ) - 3.1332 - Ryan Moore
35 - ( 35 ) - 3.0229 - Louis Oosthuizen
36 - ( 38 ) - 2.9629 - Harris English
37 - ( 36 ) - 2.9290 - Lee Westwood
38 - ( 37 ) - 2.9288 - Stephen Gallacher - Entered in EurAsia Cup - Assumed ranking will hold top-50
39 - ( 39 ) - 2.7430 - Miguel A Jimenez
40 - ( 42 ) - 2.6567 - Gonzalo Fdez-Castano
41 - ( 40 ) - 2.6437 - Rickie Fowler
42 - ( 41 ) - 2.6345 - Nick Watney
43 - ( 44 ) - 2.6278 - Joost Luiten
44 - ( 94 ) - 2.6277 - Matthew Every - WINNER - Arnold Palmer Invitation - Gains Entry to the Masters
45 - ( 43 ) - 2.6001 - Kevin Streelman
46 - ( 53 ) - 2.5563 - Francesco Molinari
47 - ( 45 ) - 2.5454 - Billy Horschel
48 - ( 50 ) - 2.5025 - Gary Woodland
49 - ( 46 ) - 2.4785 - Thongchai Jaidee
50 - ( 47 ) - 2.4734 - Russell Henley
- - - - - - -
51 - ( 48 ) - 2.4503 - Matteo Manassero
52 - ( 49 ) - 2.4330 - Chris Kirk
53 - ( 52 ) - 2.4173 - Richard Sterne -
54 - ( 51 ) - 2.4003 - Jonas Blixt
55 - ( 56 ) - 2.3091 - George Coetzee -
56 - ( 59 ) - 2.2877 - Chesson Hadley - Entered in Valero Texas Open
57 - ( 54 ) - 2.2709 - Branden Grace
58 - ( 57 ) - 2.2382 - Kevin Stadler
59 - ( 55 ) - 2.2378 - Martin Kaymer
60 - ( 60 ) - 2.2257 - John Senden
61 - ( 58 ) - 2.2128 - Scott Stallings
62 - ( 63 ) - 2.2066 - Ryan Palmer - Entered in Valero Texas Open
63 - ( 64 ) - 2.1875 - Mikko Ilonen -
64 - ( 62 ) - 2.1671 - Pablo Larrazabal - Entered in EurAsia Cup - No OWGR
65 - ( 61 ) - 2.1143 - David Lynn
66 - ( 65 ) - 2.0315 - Thorbjorn Olesen
67 - ( 66 ) - 2.0168 - Boo Weekley
68 - ( 69 ) - 2.0104 - Marc Leishman
69 - ( 67 ) - 1.9724 - Bernd Wiesberger -
70 - ( 68 ) - 1.9607 - Peter Hanson
71 - ( 70 ) - 1.9347 - Ross Fisher -
72 - ( 71 ) - 1.8428 - Peter Uihlein - Entered in Valero Texas Open
73 - ( 75 ) - 1.8385 - Charles Howell-III - Entered in Valero Texas Open
74 - ( 72 ) - 1.8373 - Kiradech Aphibarnrat - Entered in EurAsia Cup - No OWGR
75 - ( 74 ) - 1.8346 - Brooks Koepka - Entered in Valero Texas Open
76 - ( 73 ) - 1.8140 - Scott Piercy -
77 - ( 83 ) - 1.8105 - Ryo Ishikawa - Entered in Valero Texas Open
78 - ( 80 ) - 1.8034 - Kevin Na - Entered in Valero Texas Open
79 - ( 76 ) - 1.7601 - Brendon de Jonge
80 - ( 77 ) - 1.7526 - Kim Hyung-sung - Entered in EurAsia Cup - No OWGR
81 - ( 79 ) - 1.7375 - Chris Stroud - Entered in Valero Texas Open
82 - ( 78 ) - 1.6699 - Angel Cabrera
83 - ( 85 ) - 1.6653 - Thomas Aiken -
84 - ( 81 ) - 1.6569 - Roberto Castro -
85 - ( 82 ) - 1.6427 - D.A. Points
86 - ( 84 ) - 1.6372 - Koumei Oda - Entered in EurAsia Cup - No OWGR
87 - ( 90 ) - 1.6166 - Brett Rumford -
88 - ( 97 ) - 1.6104 - Matthew Jones -
89 - ( 91 ) - 1.6057 - Chris Wood -
90 - ( 86 ) - 1.6042 - Charley Hoffman - Entered in Valero Texas Open
91 - ( 89 ) - 1.5963 - Alejandro Canizares -
92 - ( 88 ) - 1.5957 - Rafael Cabrera Bello -
93 - ( 87 ) - 1.5897 - Robert Garrigus -
94 - ( 92 ) - 1.5664 - K.J. Choi
95 - ( 93 ) - 1.5518 - Paul Casey -
96 - ( 96 ) - 1.5405 - Michael Thompson - Entered in Valero Texas Open
97 - ( 135 ) - 1.5324 - Jason Kokrak -
98 - ( 99 ) - 1.5254 - Shingo Katayama -
99 - ( 95 ) - 1.5133 - Bo Van Pelt - Entered in Valero Texas Open
100 - ( 101 ) - 1.5071 - Darren Fichardt -
- - - - - - -
101 - ( 98 ) - 1.4999 - Martin Laird - Entered in Valero Texas Open
102 - ( 117 ) - 1.4865 - Fredrik Jacobson - Entered in Valero Texas Open
103 - ( 100 ) - 1.4737 - Tommy Fleetwood -
104 - ( 102 ) - 1.4298 - Pat Perez - Entered in Valero Texas Open
105 - ( 103 ) - 1.4180 - John Merrick - Entered in Valero Texas Open

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Sun 23 Mar 2014 - 22:32

OK, Prices for getting in the Masters for those outside. Gallacher assumed in.

Palmer: 10/1
Hadley: 12/1
Jacobson: 33/1
Stroud: 33/1
Ishikawa, Koepka, Na: 50/1
250/1: Bar those 7!

Thanks robo!!!!!!!!!!!

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by GPB Sun 23 Mar 2014 - 22:46

Good job Robo thumbsup 

I know a high finish will get Hadley in the top 50.

Looks like Palmer needs about 15 OWGR points so he should get in with a two way Tie 2nd or so.

I think anyone below 70th in the rankings would need a win to get into the top 50, and win gets them into the Masters no matter what.

GPB

Posts : 7283
Join date : 2012-02-10
Location : Midwest, USA

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Sun 23 Mar 2014 - 22:52

robo,
I wrote somewhere about Maggert embarking on his second fortune - couldn't have anticipated he'd be going to the ATM so soon.

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Sun 23 Mar 2014 - 23:24

kwinigolfer wrote:robo,
I wrote somewhere about Maggert embarking on his second fortune - couldn't have anticipated he'd be going to the ATM so soon.
yeah... naturally I had the highest of high hopes for him this week... but wasn't expecting this. Since length is less a factor... Champo Tour is an "iron & putter" tour... I like Jeff's iron play (definitely at or near the top of any of the champo players) but you gotta jar it after you arrive. Maggs putting is so streaky it's been hard for him to string together multiple good rounds for the last few years... Good on him.

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Mon 24 Mar 2014 - 0:19

It wouldn't have bothered me at all if Maggs had kept his tee-shot dry on #17 at TPC last year!

But surprised that Billy Andrade got so close to the jackpot so soon!

Montgomerie must be quietly p1ssed that he hasn't won yet!

Freddie Jac has a fine record at the Texas Open since they moved to the Greg Garcia lay-out - would love to see him win.

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Mon 24 Mar 2014 - 9:34

kwinigolfer wrote:It wouldn't have bothered me at all if Maggs had kept his tee-shot dry on #17 at TPC last year!
yeah... last year while 99% of the discussion was Tiger/Sergio or Tiger/drop.... Most my attention was on Maggs...

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Mon 24 Mar 2014 - 15:01

You covering the next two weeks robo? (Not to mention the one after that of course!)

No Moore, HowellIII or Every this week.

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Mon 24 Mar 2014 - 15:39

Local boy Patrick Reed also giving the TxO a miss. Too bad, sorry to see all these defections, the tournament deserves better.

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Mon 24 Mar 2014 - 15:46

GPB wrote:I know a high finish will get Hadley in the top 50.
Yep... but Chesson sure spent some valuable OWGR capital coming in Sunday. 6 over for his last 5 holes... ouch. If he goes even par through that stretch... he'd be in the top-50 now and "maybe" safe to hold on as his divisor isn't even populated to 40 yet. But now... I'm guessing Houston will come in as a high 50's event.. and if that's the case it looks like Chesson will need roughly a 7-9 finish to get in to top-50. (which i think is going to be around 2.5 average to be safe)

And as noted a win at the Valero gets anyone in the Masters... but here are some VERY ROUGH estimates of what other players might need to do to get top-50 other than a win... These are the only players remaining that it looks... short list... only 5 including Hadley.

Chesson Hadley - 7th to 9th
Ryan Palmer - 4th or 5th
Peter Uihlein - 2nd might get it done... but maybe not enough... very close
Brooks Koepka - 2nd appears to get it done... just maybe a 2-way 2nd would be enough
Kevin Na - Same scenario as Koepka..

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Mon 24 Mar 2014 - 16:04

Kwini... Yes I'm going over to San Antonio tonight... I'm shooting for the organization through Wednesday and might be set up on one of the tees to get the entire field as they come through on Thur-Fri.  Might help out Saturday or just watch... will come home late Sat or Sun am.

Houston - I actually have a lot of other non-golf work that week. So i'm volunteer shooting a couple of half days for the HGA on the days I'm available... it keeps changing but tentatively Tues, Weds... and maybe Fri. But tentatively no work for me on the weekend. I'll probably just hang around and visit friends on Saturday... but probably will get out of there about noon on Sunday unless a "real story" is developing or one of my buds is right there near the end...

And Augusta... sheesh... I wish.  But as of now, no... but I've got some irons in the fire and will drop/cancel whatEVER else I'm doing if I get the chance...  I know a lot of folks who will be there, so if I get the chance at least I'd have a place to bunk in... heck... I've let some of them sleep on my hotel room floor before... so that's the least they can do for me...   :-)

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by GPB Mon 24 Mar 2014 - 16:59

Some preliminary OWGR for Valero and Houston.

I got Valero at SoF 211 (193 & 18), which puts it at the very bottom of Tournaments Level 40. I am sure there will be a late WD that will knock it down to 38.

Preliminary Houston Field (according to the SHO website) is indicating a SoF of 422 (381 & 41) which is a Solid 56.

Stenson can claim the #1 spot if he wins the SHO and it is rated at 54 or higher.

Scott, Stenson and Day all will have scenarios to pass Woods at the Masters.

Perfect storms must align for Rory, DJohnson, PMick, and Spieth for them to overtake Woods.

If Rory or DJohnson can win Houston, they can overtake Woods with a win at the Masters.

If Mickelson can earn about 45 pts between Texas and Houston, he can overtake Woods with a win at the Masters.

Even Spieth can overtake Woods, if he wins Texas, Houston, and Augusta.




GPB

Posts : 7283
Join date : 2012-02-10
Location : Midwest, USA

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by kwinigolfer Mon 24 Mar 2014 - 18:33

40? or 38??
Chris Stroud's w/d won't help.

robo,
I'm guessing you follow Chris Stroud? He had a reputation on here a few years ago of being a late season ('07, '08) specialist, but it seems that he's recently become an accomplished all-round Tour Pro.

kwinigolfer

Posts : 26476
Join date : 2011-05-18
Location : Vermont

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by GPB Mon 24 Mar 2014 - 18:48

My estimate of Valero's SoF of 211 does not include Moore (10 EVR), Reed (11), Every (7), or Stroud (2) who have all WDed in the last 24 hours.

If those four players were in the field, the SoF would be up 241 and OWGR level 44 (barely).


GPB

Posts : 7283
Join date : 2012-02-10
Location : Midwest, USA

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by robopz Mon 24 Mar 2014 - 19:54

GPB... i think the field the SHO site has up is 2013 field...  unless they have something else up somewhere...  http://www.shellhoustonopen.com/SHO_Field.cfm.   i don't have anything more than the top player announcements they've made, but from some of the comments I've been hearing from Timms and Darden... I'm anticipating the SHO to be up a few points from last years 56. Also it's looking like all but one Webbie is in Valero as of now... only Mark Anderson remains to get into the field.

Kwini... and yeah... I keep an eye on Stroud.  he's certainly improved over the last year hasn't he.  But still... while I'd like to suggest I've seen something in him that portends great things for the future, I really can't.  But that said, I do think he has the potential to be a solid year in and year out PGA Tour players... maybe notching a win here or there someday. Probably junior Maggert like maybe.  Of course I'd be thrilled to have him prove me wrong... :-)

Well i'm off... I'll get a week 13 thread started in the next day or two..  or GPB... why not you start it... you've done some prelims... I haven't yet...

robopz

Posts : 3603
Join date : 2012-04-23
Location : Texas

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Hey there pal!!!

Post by henniebogan2 Mon 28 Apr 2014 - 5:33

robopz wrote:Some of this info was included in the OWGR Week 11 thread... but I'll summarize here to start week 12 OWGR

Preliminary OWGR winners share estimate for week the Arnold Palmer is 58.  As of Sunday night the field was looking to be a 62, but with the announcements Monday of 5 WD's (Jason Day, Charl Schwartzel, Castro, Driscoll and Levin)... the field has dropped to a 58.  

Here's the OWGR for the API for the past 10 years...  

2014 - 58  (est)
2013 - 66
2012 - 56
2011 - 58
2010 - 60
2009 - 60
2008 - 62
2007 - 68
2006 - 68
2005 - 70
2004 - 68

NOTE:  But please see the OWGR week 11 thread for some good Monday discussion on Web.com players having issues getting starts... some discussion on the make up of the Arnold Palmer field... and GPB has posted some scenarios on #1  (GPB... can you re post a summary of those here?  )


Hey there Robopz. How's it going pal?
henniebogan2
henniebogan2

Posts : 31
Join date : 2014-04-28

Back to top Go down

OWGR week 12 Empty Re: OWGR week 12

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum