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Post by kevchadders on Mon 23 May 2011, 12:33 pm

No matter what confidence you have for a particular outcome, boxing can sometimes turn the result on its head. Though its easy to look at the flash knockdowns (Lewis/McCall), the type of results I'm thinking of are fights where if it was repeated again the result would still be the same.

With that said I've made many wrong prediction in my time when it comes to boxing, with DeGale/Groves being my latest one. So I though I would share my top 5 biggest mistakes... It would be interesting to hear yours.

1. Oscar vs Manny
Pre fight everyone was saying this was going to be a massacre for Manny with him moving up to Welter from LW. I expected Oscar to be far too big and strong at the higher weight. How wrong was I that Oscar would come in as a weight drained shell of the fighter he once was.

2. Hopkins vs Pavlik
With Hopkins coming off the back of the Calzaghe defeat looking like father time had finally caught up with him his next challenge was to face the unbeaten Pavlik. Like many I though this would end up being a one sided beating with Pavlik stopping the old man late. What turned out in the end is one of the best one sided beatdown I had seen since Calzaghe/Lacy.

3. Benn vs Eubank I
Just on the back of the Barkley win Benn was looking invincible to me. Though at the time I didn't know much about Eubank I thought this would be a walk in the park for Benn.

4. Hatton vs Manny
With Hatton coming off the back of his second best performance in beating Malignaggi IMO, I thought he would win this one late. At the time I still thought LWW was a step too far from Manny, and unlike the Oscar fight where he was weight drained, I thought with Hatton he would overpower Manny to take it late on.

5. DeGale vs Groves
Never gave Groves a chance in this one. Expected DeGale to use his speed and boxing skills to take it on the cards or stop him late.

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Post by Fists of Fury on Mon 23 May 2011, 12:39 pm

In no particular order:

Darchinyan vs Donaire
Pacquaio vs Cotto
Ortiz vs Berto
Cotto vs Margarito (disputed since the glove scandal, I know)
Calderon vs Segura 1

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Post by Rowley on Mon 23 May 2011, 12:40 pm

Hatton Floyd, will hide behind the excuse I was going to Vegas to watch this for the first time so probably let jingoism get in the way of rationality but still a god awful prediction.

Hopkins Pavlik - same reasons as yours Kev

Manny Oscar - ditto

Woods Tarver. Again as he is a Sheffield lad let my heart rule my head a bit when it comes to Clinton but have never really been convinced by tarver so thought Clinton might be able to find a way to win.

Naz - Barrera. In my defence thought Naz might actually train rather than do his hair in the run up to the fight.


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Post by Fists of Fury on Mon 23 May 2011, 12:41 pm

rowley wrote:Hatton Floyd, will hide behind the excuse I was going to Vegas to watch this for the first time so probably let jingoism get in the way of rationality but still a god awful prediction.

Hopkins Pavlik - same reasons as yours Kev

Manny Oscar - ditto

Woods Tarver. Again as he is a Sheffield lad let my heart rule my head a bit when it comes to Clinton but have never really been convinced by tarver so thought Clinton might be able to find a way to win.

Naz - Barrera. In my defence thought Naz might actually train rather than do his hair in the run up to the fight.

I probably should have added this one, I certainly thought Naz would have to much power for Barrera, but as you say it doesn't seem Naz was quite as serious as I was.

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Post by coxy0001 on Mon 23 May 2011, 12:45 pm

Can we have a top 5 best ones we've predicted as well? Am in a wonderfully positive mood and talking about getting things wrong isn't what the shrink told me to do Wink

Sod it i'll do it anyway!

Worst:

Cotto v Manny - Based on Cotto boxing and not getting loose. Sadly after boxing well he then got nailed and then showed true warrior spirit and went out on his shield by running round the ring.

DLH v Hopkins - Ran with my heart and not head, told everyone DLH would be too sharp and active for Hopkins....

Corrales v FMJ - Lost a fair amount of money on Chico, thought he'd be way too big and strong.

Hatton v FMJ - Lost an even bigger amount of money as my brain deserted me and went on impulse. Felt Hatton would just walk through him. Bastchard.

PWill v Martinez - No-one saw that ending coming. Thought PWill would've learned his lesson after the first fight and instead got nailed with the KO of the year.

BEST Smile

Khan UD v Maidana - Was very vocal about Skybet offering 11/2 for a UD and won everyone lots of money...

Froch v Abes - Not many gave Froch a chance, won me a shed load on a UD as i felt he'd have too many boxing skills for the static Armenian.

Dirrell v Abes - Lost me money as i had Dirrell by UD (was NOT happy) but was seemingly among a very very few fans who thought Dirrell not only wins but wins by a big wide landslide of a decision.

Gotta nip into a meeting so will cut the last 2 short - Williams taking out Tyson and Johnson v Green

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Post by Rowley on Mon 23 May 2011, 12:48 pm

Wonder if Windy will own up to the five guineas he lost to Colonial lion on the Cribb Molyneux fight

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Post by Fists of Fury on Mon 23 May 2011, 12:49 pm

I thought they traded in livestock back then?

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Post by HumanWindmill on Mon 23 May 2011, 12:51 pm

I've made some dreadful pre fight calls but none, I suspect, would be so bad or so humiliating as my having been utterly convinced that Larry Holmes would turn the clock back to beat Tyson.

I also believed that Pavlik would beat Hopkins, Trinidad, also, would beat him, Toney would beat Jones Junior and Johnny Owen would shock Pintor.

I'm probably guilty of a fair few others which would be as bad as those last four, but nothing could top my Holmes v Tyson pick for idiocy.

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Post by HumanWindmill on Mon 23 May 2011, 12:53 pm

rowley wrote:Wonder if Windy will own up to the five guineas he lost to Colonial lion on the Cribb Molyneux fight

Forgot that one, jeff, so I'll put that one in in place of Trinidad v BHop.

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Post by 88Chris05 on Mon 23 May 2011, 12:54 pm

Have to admit that I was also guilty of totally misreading Hatton versus Pacquiao, too. Thought Hatton would weather an early storm before walking Pacquiao down and stopping him late on. How wrong I was.

Remember thinking that the disappointing nature of the first fight between Jones and Tarver would inspire Jones to dismantle him next time out, stopping him late after barely taking a punch. Again, as above, my prediction was looking as wrong as it gets by the end of the second round.

Other bad'uns from me would be picking Hopkins to outsmart Calzaghe, Mitchell to stun Katsidis and Alex Arthur to absolutely annihilate Michael Gomez.

But if we're allowed to finish on a more positive note, I'd count Barrera-Hamed (there was a lot of "told you so!" when I returned to school after that one), Margarito-Cotto, Prescott-Khan, Bradley-Witter and Klitschko-Brewster (I) as being some of my better picks. Was also pleased with my pick of Rocky Fielding to win the Super-Middleweight 'Prize Fighter' a few weeks back. Just a shame I didn't put any bleedin' money on it!

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Post by BALTIMORA on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:00 pm

Can I just pick five fights where Audley won?

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Post by Mr Bounce on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:06 pm

1. Hopkins - Pavlik As usual I thought Ol' Bernard would get old.

2. Lewis - Rahman 1 Thought Lennox would KO him in 6.

3. Mayweather - Hatton. I too believed the hype. Didn't consider Floyd's defensive capabilities.

4. Wharton - Eubank. Let my heart rule my head there.

5. Harrison - Williams 1. I expected Harrison to walk through Danny. Oops!

I did, however, predict the outcomes (absolutely spot on down to the round or decision) of Trinidad - De La Hoya, Vitali Klitschko - Herbie Hide, Calzaghe - Hopkins and also Lewis - Golota. thumbsup

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Post by bellchees on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:10 pm

I think most of my bad ones involve Paul Williams, that guy does my head in, had him to beat Quintana first time but he lost. Thought he would lose the rematch as well and the tool goes and knocks Quintana out in 1. I thought he would lose to Martinez first time round, I scored it to Martinez but Williams got the decision. Thought he would learn from the first fight and win a bit more convincingly second time round and he goes and gets his head taken clean off his shoulders. Another one of note is that I thought Peter would have to much for Vitali returning from a 4 year lay off and the plodding idiot didn't win a round.

Some better ones for me are Hatton vs Pacquiao, always thought that was going badly for Hatton. Hopkins beating Pascal 2nd time round. Also I wasn't at all shocked about how much trouble Alexander had with Kotelnik.

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Post by Guest on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:17 pm

Lewis/Rahman I - but Harry Carpenter got it wrong as well so I don't feel too bad

Pavlik/Hopkins - Thought Pavlik might dish out a painful "time to call it quits B-Hop" lesson but was amazed when he did what he did.

Lewis/Holyfield II - Thought Lewis might put his stamp of authority on the fight and make a statement....he did, "I'm not changing for anyone"

Hatton/Floyd - although more in hope than expectation

Hatton/Manny - really thought Ricky might have a stab at utilising the jab he'd spent eight weeks working on. Didn't realise it was a ploy to fool everyone into thinking he'd be making an effort.

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Post by Guest on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:18 pm

Of course, my worst pick was last month. Watched "When We Were Kings" and bet heavily on Big George

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Post by Rowley on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:20 pm

DAVE667 wrote:Of course, my worst pick was last month. Watched "When We Were Kings" and bet heavily on Big George

Should have had a word with Colin Hart Dave he got that one right, has he not mentioned it?

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Post by 88Chris05 on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:21 pm

DAVE667 wrote:Of course, my worst pick was last month. Watched "When We Were Kings" and bet heavily on Big George

laughing

Lovely stuff, Dave. Thank the good Lord you didn't watch a 'prime' Mike Tyson highlight reel on YouTube before he faced off against Danny Williams, though.
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Post by Rowley on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:23 pm

88Chris05 wrote:
DAVE667 wrote:Of course, my worst pick was last month. Watched "When We Were Kings" and bet heavily on Big George

laughing

Lovely stuff, Dave. Thank the good Lord you didn't watch a 'prime' Mike Tyson highlight reel on YouTube before he faced off against Danny Williams, though.

Come on Chris be fair Cus had died.

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Post by Guest on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:24 pm

rowley wrote:
DAVE667 wrote:Of course, my worst pick was last month. Watched "When We Were Kings" and bet heavily on Big George

Should have had a word with Colin Hart Dave he got that one right, has he not mentioned it?
I've more chance of speaking to Peter Jackson than getting Colin to fez up as to who he picked in Zaire. The man's lips are clamped tighter than a camel's bum in a sandstorm

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Post by 88Chris05 on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:27 pm

rowley wrote:
88Chris05 wrote:
DAVE667 wrote:Of course, my worst pick was last month. Watched "When We Were Kings" and bet heavily on Big George

laughing

Lovely stuff, Dave. Thank the good Lord you didn't watch a 'prime' Mike Tyson highlight reel on YouTube before he faced off against Danny Williams, though.

Come on Chris be fair Cus had died.

I think you mean Gus, Rowley.
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Post by HumanWindmill on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:30 pm

88Chris05 wrote:
rowley wrote:
88Chris05 wrote:
DAVE667 wrote:Of course, my worst pick was last month. Watched "When We Were Kings" and bet heavily on Big George

laughing

Lovely stuff, Dave. Thank the good Lord you didn't watch a 'prime' Mike Tyson highlight reel on YouTube before he faced off against Danny Williams, though.

Come on Chris be fair Cus had died.

I think you mean Gus, Rowley.

Toma(y)toes, D'Amatos.

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Post by Guest on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:32 pm

Wasn't Mike confusing Danny Williams with Robbie Williams, Robin Williams and Robin Givens that night?

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Post by kevchadders on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:44 pm

DAVE667 wrote:Lewis/Rahman I - but Harry Carpenter got it wrong as well so I don't feel too bad

Pavlik/Hopkins - Thought Pavlik might dish out a painful "time to call it quits B-Hop" lesson but was amazed when he did what he did.

Lewis/Holyfield II - Thought Lewis might put his stamp of authority on the fight and make a statement....he did, "I'm not changing for anyone"

Hatton/Floyd - although more in hope than expectation

Hatton/Manny - really thought Ricky might have a stab at utilising the jab he'd spent eight weeks working on. Didn't realise it was a ploy to fool everyone into thinking he'd be making an effort.

I think most of us got than one wrong thinking Hatton might utilise some sort tactics instead of the "Hands Down... Chin Out" approach.

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Post by Soldier_Of_Fortune on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:55 pm

Am trying to put in order of worst

1) Hatton v Mayweather
2) Oscar v Manny
3) Nas v Barrera
4) Khan v Prescot: Even advised me mate against betting on a 1st round KO for Prescott at 66/1 🤦
5) Judah v Cotto
6) Hatton v Manny

Had a few good shouts.

Froch v Taylor: On an american boxing forum at the time and gave a detailed analysis of hoe the fight would pan out and that Froch would stop him in the 12. After a sevre backlash from the yanks who hadnt even probs seen Froch box before then, it was satisfying quoting the few members the next day and low and behold, only got a through responces. Fight near enopugh went as I expected with a few scares on the way

Margarito v Cotto. Had £5 each on a 10th, 11th and 12th round KO for Marg and went pretty much how I thought with Marg eating everything Cotto had to offer only to ware him down and stop him late

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Post by azania on Mon 23 May 2011, 1:57 pm

Tyson/Douglas
Tyson/Williams
Lewis/Rahman
Leonard/Harger (would have been correct were it not for 3 blind judges)
Hearns/Barkley

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Post by shenglong1983 on Mon 23 May 2011, 2:17 pm

The time Union told us that Harrison would beat Haye.

Thats my favourite wrong prediction of all time.

Thanks Union.

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Post by captain carrantuohil on Mon 23 May 2011, 2:28 pm

Far too many to name. Had Benn to beat Watson, Graham to beat Kalambay, gave McCrory a chance against Curry, backed against Pacquiao from featherweight to lightweight inclusive, had Hopkins to beat Jones first time round, was convinced that Hagler would massacre Leonard....the list by no means stops there, but I've had enough of my limitations, all of a sudden.

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Post by oxring on Mon 23 May 2011, 2:28 pm

The time I thought Haye-Harrison would last longer than 1 flurry from Haye.

The time I thought deGale was all wrong for Groves.
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Post by J.Benson II on Mon 23 May 2011, 2:35 pm

I got the weekend's prediction wrong.
I thought Degale, after a tense start, would be too slick for Groves and take a UD. I was proabably making the same mistake as others by looking too much into Groves' flaws rather than his strengths.
I got the other prediction correct though: Hopkins UD Pascal.

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Post by Sugar Boy Sweetie on Mon 23 May 2011, 3:29 pm

In the build up to hatton - pacquiao I said I fancied hatton. That was a poor shout in hindsight. I did redeem it a bit by changing my mind after the weigh in and sticking a bet on pacquiao - which didn't come in (ko rounds 9-12)!.

My worst was probably Mitchell v Katsidas, really fancied keV to make his name in that fight and he he just embarrassed himself.

Can't think of any other significant clangers right now, had Hopkins to beat calzaghe, this weekend I had degale to beat groves on points (which I think he did). Wrong, but not ridiculously so.

Am gonna hang my hat on Haye doing something special against wlad so that could be another one for the list if it all goes pear shaped.
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Post by KO-KING on Mon 23 May 2011, 3:43 pm

Oscar vs Manny - Oscar TKO win 8


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Post by Valero's Conscience on Mon 23 May 2011, 4:34 pm

I've not made many predictions public as my mates aren't really into boxing but my worst from recent memory and not necessarily the result but the way the fight planned out:

1- Pascal vs B-Hop II: I thought Pascal would win comfortably

2- Khan vs Maidana: Really though Khan would win a very wide UD, almost a shutout

3- Degale vs Groves: Predicted Degale to win easily

4- Morlales vs Maidana: Early KO for Maidana predicted or at least as soon as he started to connect

5- Berto vs Ortiz: I though Berto would be too much for Ortiz. I actually thought GBP didn't have much hope and thought "well at least it's one more payday out of him"

Although I did bet that Katsidas would stop Mitchell within 3!

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Post by Bob on Mon 23 May 2011, 9:04 pm

It's reached a point where I don't actually predict fights because I get the niggling suspicion at the back of my mind that my prediction actually makes the opposite happen.

I was making noises about ten years ago that Dominic Guinn and Sinan Samil Sam were the heirs to the heavyweight crown.

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Post by HumanWindmill on Mon 23 May 2011, 9:15 pm

Bob wrote:It's reached a point where I don't actually predict fights because I get the niggling suspicion at the back of my mind that my prediction actually makes the opposite happen.

I was making noises about ten years ago that Dominic Guinn and Sinan Samil Sam were the heirs to the heavyweight crown.

They might still be, Bob, things being the way they are.

Was wondering where you'd gone, by the way.

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Post by Bob on Mon 23 May 2011, 9:58 pm

Coming off 7 days of work, and I'm hardly office based so no surfing whilst I work.

Been convalescing because I got attacked by a lunatic who bust my ribs headbutting them, so laughing, farting, sneezing and coughing caused a few spasms.

This site can cause at least one of those reactions in spades, so I stayed clear.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon 23 May 2011, 10:21 pm

Hatton ko 6 Manny
Curry ko 3 Honeyghan
Biggs w12 Tyson
Holmes ko 2 Spinks
Bramble ko 13 Rosario............

5 that spring to mind........

Hamed ko 8 Barrera...........

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Post by Liam_Main on Mon 23 May 2011, 10:28 pm

1. Hatton to KO Mayweather
2. Degale to KO Groves
3. Juan Ma Lopez to KO Salido early
4. Paul Williams to win by a large UD in there 2nd fight
5. RJJ to school to Antonio Tarver in there 2nd fight.
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Post by skidd1 on Mon 23 May 2011, 10:41 pm

So many..persuaded a few mates that Cowdell could edge Nelson..they got good odds and put decent money on..
Managed to get most of the Eubank,Benn, Watson Collins fights wrong.Think thats 5 or more
Used to pick against Hopkins but haven't since Calzaghe..that has worked but not sure quite sure why

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Post by licence_007 on Mon 23 May 2011, 11:13 pm

1) Degale KO 10th vs Groves

2) ODLH to beat Manny

3) ODLH to beat Mayweather

The Oscar ones are definitely heart over head I think.

4) Maidana to KO Morales early in the fight.

That's the worst I can think of.

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Post by Colonial Lion on Tue 24 May 2011, 6:48 am

Difficult to limit it to just 5 Im sorry to say! I will pick one from each decade I followed boxing in. In chronological order I would go:

1. Eder Jofe v Fighting Harada

Jofre was one of my favourite fighters and had a real auroa of invincibility about him. Harada of course was a fine fighter himself but just didnt have the same consistency and at the time I best remembered him for his losing to Kingpetch at flyweight. To be honest, I gave him no chance whatsoever of beating the then unbeaten Jofre at bantamweight.

2. Ali v Frazier I

I was confident that Ali would be able to outbox Frazier and that his comeback wins over Quarry and Bonavena had convinced me that he was well and truly back. Looking back I am not sure why I was so convinced at the time.

3. Wilfredo Gomez v Azumah Nelson

I rated both these fighters highly but was convinced Gomez would win this one easily.

4. Mike Tyson v Evander Holyfield

Along with Tyson and his team I was one of the people who felt Holyfield was finished after his KO loss to Bowe whilst Tyson on the other hand may still have something to offer. I was very confident Tyson would secure the stoppage win.

5. Jermain Taylor v Kelly Pavlik

Not only once, but twice! I ws impressed with Taylor against Hopkins and had been decidedly unimpressed with Pavlik who I thought was a rather limited hype job. I didnt even expect this to be close and thought Taylor would do to Pavlik what Hopkins did later.

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Post by compelling and rich on Tue 24 May 2011, 8:18 am

worse one i probably did was tyson v lewis. for some reson i got it into my head that tyson might knock him out early

big fight predictions i dont normally do too bad, the only exception is mr hopkins. backed pavlik over him, then backed him in the first pascal fight but then conviced myself to go against him in the second.

suprised more people havnt put enzo v haye down, i remember alot of backing for enzo on old 606. all the polls were nearly 50/50. one im gladly can say i callled correct

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Post by Marky on Tue 24 May 2011, 9:45 am

Hatton to beat Mayweather
Hatton to beat Pacquiao
Tyson to beat Lewis
Pavlik to beat Hopkins

And just last weekend...

Jones Jr to beat Lebedev 🤦

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Post by fearlessBamber on Tue 24 May 2011, 10:41 am

1) Hatton to edge out Pac on points. Think I said Manny couldn't hurt him Very Happy
2) Hagler late stoppage Leonard.

Can't think of any more, although I'm sure there are loads. Don't do predictions much these days and don't watch many fights.

Looked at the latest big prediction Groves and Degale on youtube and couldn't decide really. Think Groves looks vulnerable and Degale a bit weak and slappy - kind of like a rudey poo Michael Nunn.

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Post by Rowley on Tue 24 May 2011, 11:29 am

Hatton to edge out Pac on points. Think I said Manny couldn't hurt him
_________________________________________________________

If it makes you feel any better you were far from alone in that one

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Post by Union Cane on Tue 24 May 2011, 11:34 am

I vaguely recall being taken in by all Harrison's chatter and backing him to do a number on Haye.

That's so shameful it counts as my worst five.


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Post by fearlessBamber on Tue 24 May 2011, 11:39 am

rowley wrote:Hatton to edge out Pac on points. Think I said Manny couldn't hurt him
_________________________________________________________

If it makes you feel any better you were far from alone in that one

Unfortunately, I think Hatton was part of the company.

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Post by compelling and rich on Tue 24 May 2011, 2:20 pm

Union Cane wrote:I vaguely recall being taken in by all Harrison's chatter and backing him to do a number on Haye.

That's so shameful it counts as my worst five.



union im afriad that takes it as the worst

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Post by Eyetoldyouso on Tue 24 May 2011, 3:43 pm

I genuinely believed that DeGale would beat Groves early. Take a few rounds to get his range, warm up and then finish him off round 4 or 5. Still not sure that he wanted it badly enough.
ODLH to beat FMJ.
ODLH to beat Manny
To my credit I never believed that Hatton would beat FMJ and if he couldn't win that one, he had no chance against Manny.

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