Newark by election - First poll shows it's game on !!

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Newark by election - First poll shows it's game on !! Empty Newark by election - First poll shows it's game on !!

Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 30 May 2014, 9:34 am

2010 General Election
-----------------------

Conservative 54 %
Labour 22 %
Lib Dem 20 %
UKIP 3 %

Survation poll commissioned and carried out this week by The Sun newspaper.......................

Conservative 34 %
UKIP 28 %
Labour 27 %
Lib Dem 5 %

Have to factor in it's only one poll..............Though Survation tends to be a respected pollster.....

Can UKIP buy into the 27% of the Labour vote is probably the question............

Certainly If this poll isn't an outlier it's closer than I expected..

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Post by kingraf on Fri 30 May 2014, 10:45 am

Interesting spread. Problem with polls is they aren't quite anonymous, and people sometimes tell you what they want you to hear. I stand to be corrected, but I'll believe a party losing 20% in one region when I see it.
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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 30 May 2014, 11:24 am

Thought anyone who believed Agassi could press 415 for 2 reps would believe anything........... thumbsup 

1. Survation was commissioned by the Sun which is a Tory paper.......Making the Conservatives look bad isn't part of the paper's narrative..

2. By elections are different than general elections as they are generally used as a protest against the incumbent administration.....Norwich and Crewe in the last parliament saw huge Labour majorities turn into huge Conservative ones.......

3. UKIP have changed the usual dynamic..................


Last edited by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 30 May 2014, 11:29 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : ...)

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Post by skyeman on Fri 30 May 2014, 4:19 pm

I think that the Cons will keep Newark but would not be surprised at all if UKIP gain their first MP. It might be a way for the Tory voters to send just one more message to Cameron. And indeed the Labour voters to Miliband.

Don't forget, this is a safe Tory area with a defending 16,000 majority. Going to be anxious times for the Tories for sure.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Tue 03 Jun 2014, 5:01 pm

Moving back out. Tories now 42% to UKIP's 27%. Labour next with 20%.

Hopefully will turn into a comfy Tory win.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10870510/Tories-on-course-for-overwhelming-win-in-Newark-poll-suggests.html

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Post by skyeman on Tue 03 Jun 2014, 5:32 pm

But if UKIP get within 4,000 the message will still have been sent.

Cameron has to respond. But what can he do?

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 03 Jun 2014, 6:20 pm

Yes I don't really like Roger Helmer, and he wouldn't be ever so fond of me, either, so I do hope the Tories hold here.

I think UKIP are just hoping to cut into the sizeable majority that the Tories presently have.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Wed 04 Jun 2014, 10:31 am

Message was sent last week, don't think a routine comfy Tory win really says anything new/different.

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