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Is Nadal Now The Wimbledon Favorite?

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Is Nadal now Wimbledon favorite?

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Total Votes : 35
 
 

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Post by hawkeye Mon 09 Jun 2014, 5:05 pm

Last year Nadal felt unable to compete at Wimbledon but this year he's feeling a little better

"I want to try to play well again in Wimbledon," he said. "I'm healthy. That's the most important thing."

"I hope my knee will have the positive feeling on grass, because I feel my knee is better than last year on the rest of the surfaces,"

"Grass always was a little bit harder for me after the injury. Last year I tried, but I was not ready to compete at Wimbledon.

"Let's see how my feelings are there this year, but it's a very important tournament."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/27757048

Is Nadal now the favorite to add to his Wimbledon trophy collection? Nadal always has to win Wimbledon the tricky way as part of a channel slam but despite this I reckon he is now the favorite  king

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Post by Guest Mon 09 Jun 2014, 5:09 pm

No way I reckon 4th round. He looked spent beyond recognition by the end of yesterdays final, I just dont think hes got the energy anymore to do the double. For me I think hell go out to the first decent player he gets

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Post by Guest Mon 09 Jun 2014, 5:15 pm

In a word....nope

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Post by R!skysports Mon 09 Jun 2014, 5:34 pm

As I Murray fan...


I actually think yes



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Post by skyeman Mon 09 Jun 2014, 5:44 pm

Hell NO.

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Post by HM Murdock Mon 09 Jun 2014, 6:02 pm

No.

He always seems like he should be because of how good he looks at RG. But he hasn't won the last 3 and has even had two very early exits.

Which isn't to say he's not a serious contender, of course.

But not the favourite, in my opinion.

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Post by kingraf Mon 09 Jun 2014, 6:07 pm

Nadal at Wimbledon is a bit like Tyson Gay at the Olympics, if he gets out the starting blocks, he's a definite contender, no guarantee he gets out the blocks though.
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Post by laverfan Mon 09 Jun 2014, 6:13 pm

Welcome back, HE.

Where is Amritia when you need him to pronounce Nadal as the 8th (or was it the 127th) favorite for the W? Wink

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Post by naxroy Mon 09 Jun 2014, 6:13 pm

I dont think he can be considered favourite, coming from 2nd and 1st round exits in 2012 and 2013

I mean nadal has won 2 matches on grass since the final in 2011

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Post by skyeman Mon 09 Jun 2014, 7:04 pm

naxroy wrote:I dont think he can be considered favourite, coming from 2nd and 1st round exits in 2012 and 2013

I mean nadal has won 2 matches on grass since the final in 2011


Exactly. Can he win? Of course he could, one of the greats and has won Wimby before.

But the favourite. Which is the question. NO.

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Post by Silver Mon 09 Jun 2014, 7:28 pm

Absolutely not.

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Post by ChequeredJersey Mon 09 Jun 2014, 7:35 pm

Nope, not when the recent trend for him is early exits. He CAN win it, and if he gets through week 1 I might have him as favourite but I'd also not be surprised by an early exit
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Post by skyeman Mon 09 Jun 2014, 7:43 pm

TBH, i am surprised anyone voted YES.

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Post by Guest Mon 09 Jun 2014, 7:58 pm

If he can survive to week two, and hes fine physically he goes second favourite because of the way he goes through the gears in a slam and most importantly how the grass becomes dirt as the tourny goes on

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Post by CaledonianCraig Mon 09 Jun 2014, 8:30 pm

To the original question - no.

I take it this is a knee-jerk reaction and posted in over-excitement of Rafa's great win in RG. I am sue the original poster is aware that Rafa is far superior on clay than he is on grass and recent Wimbledon disasters for him have been more frequent than triumphs so why should he be favourite?

Stats show Murray to have a marginally better win percentage at Wimbledon compared to Rafa. So as things stand I cannot see how Rafa can be favourite for a tournament that he has failed to reach the second week of more often than he has won. If he makes it through to the second week though his odds will shorten.
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Post by skyeman Mon 09 Jun 2014, 8:30 pm

So only Riskysports has put a post saying YES. Well done.


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Post by skyeman Mon 09 Jun 2014, 8:43 pm

Too many Nadal fans voting YES for obvious reasons.

Nadal has won RG 11,12, 13, and now 14 but has not won Wimby.

You make him fave. Why?

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Post by laverfan Mon 09 Jun 2014, 9:13 pm

falzy21 wrote:If he can survive to week two, and hes fine physically he goes second favourite because of the way he goes through the gears in a slam and most importantly how the grass becomes dirt as the tourny goes on

Just highlighting this so it is not lost to others.

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Post by Danny_1982 Mon 09 Jun 2014, 10:18 pm

falzy21 wrote:If he can survive to week two, and hes fine physically he goes second favourite because of the way he goes through the gears in a slam and most importantly how the grass becomes dirt as the tourny goes on

Agree with this. In fact, if he finds himself in the quarters I would make him marginal favourite ahead of Andy.


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Post by laverfan Mon 09 Jun 2014, 10:33 pm

Nadal in Halle - http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2014/06/24/Halle-Monday-Nadal-Arrives.aspx

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Post by antonico Tue 10 Jun 2014, 1:33 am

Can anyone explain to me how any players status as "favorite" means anything at all? It has nothing to do with the matches, nothing to do with winning or losing. And yet, the press especially, seem fixated on this utterly meaningless label of "favorite". I don't understand it.

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Post by yloponom68 Tue 10 Jun 2014, 1:44 am

Just that - it's a way to sell papers, get people's interest levels up, talk about the tournament, players, expected matches, etc.,

Favourite - person whom most people think likely to win the event. Too many intangibles to make it a worthwhile term!

Nadal is at huge risk the first week at SW19. When, and only when, he is into the 2nd week, would I then start to look at the draw, how he is playing, his opponents are playing, etc., etc.,

As much as he is capable of playing well at Wimbledon - you don't make 5 finals in 5 events played, winning two titles, without the "capacity" to play well. Especially beating Federer along the way to his inaugural title!

A "blinding" match, played by a "hot" server, can take any given player out, on any given day. Makes it all the more amazing what Borg, then Federer did, at Wimbledon. See Hewitt 2003 edition - 1st round loss to Karlovic!

Sure Nadal CAN win here, he CAN also go out in rounds 1, 2 or 3, depending on his draw. Both his losses the past two years, came after monumental efforts in Paris, then playing "lights out" tennis by journeymen players. Lightning can strike three times in the same place, though chances are ever-diminishing for that. Still, best wait around to see how he transitions in Halle, and the draw when it comes out.

Good news, he has no match wins from Wimbledon 2013 to defend, so every round is "gravy" for his points total! Djokovic defending runner's up points, however, whatever happens here, it's just a matter of time before the No 1 ranking changes hands. Not 100% convinced it will be to Djokovic and stay there for long, but hey! let's see what happens.

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Post by Henman Bill Tue 10 Jun 2014, 2:12 am

I would put Murray and Djokovic ahead of him.

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Post by naxroy Tue 10 Jun 2014, 3:11 am

when you say "whatever happens here, it's just a matter of time before the No 1 ranking changes hands" you mean this year?
its tue is very probable, but who knows... it was almost impossible that nadal kept it after roland garros, and look what happened


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Post by invisiblecoolers Tue 10 Jun 2014, 3:33 am

I can gonna make my dear friend HawkEye happy,

Nadal is not the favorite for Wimbledon but but.........

















Super Favorite, indeed Wimbledon planning to call this year off as they already know the winner.

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Post by whocares Tue 10 Jun 2014, 8:34 am

Murray and Djokovic are the only 2 serious contenders and are less likely to suffer an upset in the early rounds. the days were Nadal had enough to be competitive in both RG and W are behind him. he nows had to be careful with his body and always face the risk to go out to someone who hits flat and hard in the early rounds if he hasnt enough time to adapt to grass (this is valid for many other top players). doesnt mean Nadal (or federer or someone else) does not stand a chance but odds for Nadal to win at 9/2 or 4/1 look like a sell to me whereas Wawrinka at 22/1 could be an interesting one

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Post by Josiah Maiestas Tue 10 Jun 2014, 1:15 pm

If he makes the QF stage then he will be favourite. I don't think he's going to though, plus he can't run on grass without slipping alot.

Quite an achievement this lad won it twice.
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Post by R!skysports Tue 10 Jun 2014, 1:35 pm

The reason I put him favorite, is I think this year he is playing well and his body seems to be holding up.

Murray is just coming back to form so may not be 100% yet - so loses a little favourite

Djoker seems be be losing it in his head a bit, and if he meets Nadal, not sure I can see him winning it

hence my reason

I could be wrong though :-)

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Post by Gerry SA Tue 10 Jun 2014, 2:18 pm

Whilst difference surface, and one he's been struggling on over the last two seasons, Nadal COULD be deemed favourite on his recent major form. US Open champion, Australian Open runner up and french Open champion. Pretty decent run if you ask me.

I personally wouldn't have him as favourite though.

Probably I'd favour Djokovic. Yes he's not won a major in 16 months, but he's been getting to finals. And he's been winning 1000s for fun. His overall form is very good.

In most normal circumstances I would have Murray as nailed on favourite, but due to his back surgery and no titles since Wimbledon 2013, I'd consider him at present a little behind Djokovic

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Post by super_realist Tue 10 Jun 2014, 2:26 pm

Hope he faces another Darcis. His face was a picture of Capybara-ness

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Post by Guest Tue 10 Jun 2014, 2:57 pm

Just to say I will throw the Swiss Maestros hat in the ring. At the start of the year there was a lot of talk he would be fav for Wimby, anyone still think this holds?

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Post by Guest Tue 10 Jun 2014, 3:02 pm

Well Edberg did state straight after his defeat to Gulbis that Wimbledon and the US Open were the slams they are aiming for and that the French Open was never a priority.

I think Federer would be a good bet. Especially as he is one of the top 4 seeds.

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Post by Gerry SA Tue 10 Jun 2014, 3:03 pm

falzy21 wrote:Just to say I will throw the Swiss Maestros hat in the ring. At the start of the year there was a lot of talk he would be fav for Wimby, anyone still think this holds?
Of course King Roger can win...but he'd need a favourable draw IMO.

Such as Murray and Nadal in opposite half of thr draw.

Federer would prefer Djokovic as his semi final, and he'd probably want to avoid Berdych.

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Post by gboycottnut1 Tue 10 Jun 2014, 11:38 pm

No Nadal is now not the Wimbledon Favourite. Steve Darcis is the favourite, followed by Lukas Rosol.

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Post by Silver Wed 11 Jun 2014, 12:02 am

legendkillarV2 wrote:Well Edberg did state straight after his defeat to Gulbis that Wimbledon and the US Open were the slams they are aiming for and that the French Open was never a priority.

I think Federer would be a good bet. Especially as he is one of the top 4 seeds.

Agreed. I'm surprised by how little he's being mentioned; the only person he'd really fear is Nadal. He can beat everyone else, and seems in good shape this year.

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Post by naxroy Wed 11 Jun 2014, 12:02 am

its funny, a week ago nadal had confidence issues and now is djokovic who has confidence issues

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Post by mthierry Wed 11 Jun 2014, 12:52 am

Whether he's favourite or not is disputable but there are too many ridiculously dismissive comments based on the early exists in the last 2 years. They may be nothing more than freak anomalies considering the guy has made 5 Wimbledon finals and won twice at the tournament in a 6-year period. And he's coming off 3 consecutive slam finals and 4 finals in the last 5 GS. I personally think he has as good a chance as anyone if he gets into the second week. The first week has always been fairly awkward for him when the surface is at its slickest and he may not have adjusted well after his usually exhausting clay seasons. But he'll be hard to shake off in the latter stages.

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Post by Guest Wed 11 Jun 2014, 12:56 am

Havent seen Rosol for some time and is Darcis even ranked high enough to get in?

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Post by summerblues Wed 11 Jun 2014, 3:58 am

I would not say he is "the" favorite, but he has to be right up there.  Maybe he is more likely to slip up earlier than some other guys (though I think people read a bit too much into the last couple of years) but if he makes it to the business end of the tournament, I would give him good odds against just about anyone.  I would probably give him better than 50/50 in a match against Andy and not much worse than 50/50 against Nole.

Overall, I would probably have Nole and Andy ahead of him as the favorites, but not by much.

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Post by summerblues Wed 11 Jun 2014, 4:09 am

legendkillarV2 wrote:Well Edberg did state straight after his defeat to Gulbis that Wimbledon and the US Open were the slams they are aiming for and that the French Open was never a priority.
(As I learned from Truffin) Edberg said this before the French Open, which, in my mind, makes it even more believable.  If he had said it right after the defeat, there would have been much bigger chance that it was just a spin on the bad result.

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Post by lydian Wed 11 Jun 2014, 9:53 am

Hardly surprising Feds focus is Wimb/US open given that's where most of his success has been...a lot depends on Fed's draws now, if he meets big hitters he's vulnerable but he's been in great form nonetheless. Don't know anyone could make Nadal the Wimb favourite...that's just naïve red-top media talk. He's maybe top 5 favourite but as stated he's the most vulnerable to go out early due to always having very little time to build the grass transition.
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Post by dummy_half Wed 11 Jun 2014, 11:31 am

I wouldn't make Nadal favourite, but it's a very open year between the 'big 4' with the possibility of someone like Berdych adding to the mix.

I'd currently go with Djoko and Andy as pretty much joint favourites, Nadal close behind and Roger a little bit further back as 4th favourite. In all the four cases, I think you can make a case against them as follows:
Djokovic - Grass is probably his least good surface, and he has struggled in Slam finals recently.
Murray - Until RG, his form had been patchy after his back surgery. Add in coaching issues and some iffy service performances and you can't make him a clear favourite even if his recent grass court record puts him ahead of the rest.
Nadal - Tiredness after RG (as much mentally as physically), and his performances over the last couple of years at Wimbledon suggest a vulnerability during the quicker conditions of the first week. I think he is fractionally slower than when he was challenging seriously, and it makes a difference to how he has to play on grass (more aggressive earlier in the rally, rather than defending and looking for the countering opportunity).
Roger - Mostly age, and that he hasn't been right at the sharp end of a slam for a while now. Grass probably represents his best chance of adding to his slam haul, but it's not 2006 any more.

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Post by sirfredperry Wed 11 Jun 2014, 11:33 am

There was talk before the French (RG where Rafa has been supreme since the 19th century !) that Nadal might not win at RG this year.
  Some even said he would not get very far, which was extraordinary. If he was gonna lose it was probably only going to be to Djoko.
Now there are doubts about his likely success at Wimbledon. OK, he went out (very) early last year and the year before and, yes, he can be vulnerable on grass.
  But if Rafa cannot be considered the out-and-out favourite, I would certainly make him ONE of the favourites. In fact, it's pretty open this year and you could make a good case out for any of the "old" top four.

PS. Written before Dummy's excellent post above


Last edited by sirfredperry on Wed 11 Jun 2014, 11:39 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : adding bit)

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Post by HM Murdock Wed 11 Jun 2014, 12:17 pm

Can't see Novak as the favourite all.

It's his worst surface, he hasn't won a slam in 18 months and, when everyone else is working on their grass game, he is currently on his stag do in Ibiza!

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Post by kingraf Wed 11 Jun 2014, 12:19 pm

HM Murdoch wrote:Can't see Novak as the favourite all.

It's his worst surface, he hasn't won a slam in 18 months and, when everyone else is working on their grass game, he is currently on his stag do in Ibiza!

What a lad. If Nadal wasn't around I'd really have liked Djokovic a lot more. Hope he enjoys It, and leaves the strippers alone.
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Post by HM Murdock Wed 11 Jun 2014, 12:51 pm

kingraf wrote:
HM Murdoch wrote:Can't see Novak as the favourite all.

It's his worst surface, he hasn't won a slam in 18 months and, when everyone else is working on their grass game, he is currently on his stag do in Ibiza!

What a lad. If Nadal wasn't around I'd really have liked Djokovic a lot more. Hope he enjoys It, and leaves the strippers alone.
I'm not too sure that he is, KR. Look in the background of the first picture and the side of the one where he's helping his mate out of the water...

Is that the Becker influence? Wink 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2653495/Novak-Djokovic-gets-French-Open-defeat-boys-trip-Ibiza.html

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Post by kingraf Wed 11 Jun 2014, 1:06 pm

That's a really pale woman!!
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Post by Born Slippy Wed 11 Jun 2014, 1:24 pm

Amazing to think that but for injury before the final in Oz Rafa would be going for a non calendar grand slam at Wimbledon. I think I would make him 2nd favourite behind Murray with Fed and Djoko just behind in that order.

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Is Nadal Now The Wimbledon Favorite? Empty Re: Is Nadal Now The Wimbledon Favorite?

Post by JuliusHMarx Wed 11 Jun 2014, 2:27 pm

Born Slippy wrote:Amazing to think that but for injury before the final in Oz Rafa would be going for a non calendar grand slam at Wimbledon. I think I would make him 2nd favourite behind Murray with Fed and Djoko just behind in that order.

Because if Rafa had been fit Stan would definitely, 100% certain, have lost?

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Is Nadal Now The Wimbledon Favorite? Empty Re: Is Nadal Now The Wimbledon Favorite?

Post by kingraf Wed 11 Jun 2014, 2:47 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
Born Slippy wrote:Amazing to think that but for injury before the final in Oz Rafa would be going for a non calendar grand slam at Wimbledon. I think I would make him 2nd favourite behind Murray with Fed and Djoko just behind in that order.

Because if Rafa had been fit Stan would definitely, 100% certain, have lost?

Hard to think in absolutes, but I think it would have gone a bit like Sunday's final, if I'm honest.
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Is Nadal Now The Wimbledon Favorite? Empty Re: Is Nadal Now The Wimbledon Favorite?

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