The big debate 2015 !!!

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 02 Apr 2015, 8:54 pm

First topic message reminder :

Clegg non existent.....Cam and Mili going through the motions....Farage chucking grenades and misfiring.....Little feisty Nicola Sturgeon stealing the show.....What a fighter..

Think I'm falling in love.....Shorter version of my Mrs....

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 17 Apr 2015, 4:49 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:It's BBC, of course it was going to lean to the left. Farage knew what he was going into, both eyes open....

Independent poller Mori selected the audience...........Sample from all wings and parties... Nothing to do with the BBC

Why do people comment without reearching..

and why don't right wingers moan about SKY's bias ??


Last edited by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 17 Apr 2015, 4:57 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : ..)

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Post by Rowley on Fri 17 Apr 2015, 4:55 pm

The whole bias argument makes me laugh. Was reading the Guardian the other week and everyone was moaning about Paxman's right wing bias in the leader interviews, funny nobody accused him of a bias before he revealed he classed himself as a one nation tory some time ago. Both sides of the debate are as guilty of seeing what they want to see on this one.

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Post by Dave. on Fri 17 Apr 2015, 4:56 pm

I can see Lab/LD. I just can't see another Con/LD. Depends if the Orange Bookers survive I guess, but after losing two thirds of your vote I just can't see it. I would probably be somewhere in the right of the LDs, left of the Tories if I were a GB voter.

I hope for either a slim majority or a coalition with the LDs.

One point I will say - if like last time, Con/LD is the only show in town, it'll happen again. Regardless of what I said above. I just hope we aren't hung on a Celtic rope, no matter if they want in or out! (DUP will do the same as the SNP mark my words).

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Fri 17 Apr 2015, 5:27 pm

Think there's still some reversion to mean to come, reckon LD will getting similar if not more seats than UKIP+DUP.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 17 Apr 2015, 5:38 pm

Cameron's right wingers won't take another 5 years of Lib dem coalition.......

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Post by Hero on Fri 17 Apr 2015, 6:23 pm

They won't have much of a choice, not many other bedding partners.

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Post by Dave. on Fri 17 Apr 2015, 7:10 pm

Anyone booked the 8th off work? I have.


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Post by TopHat24/7 on Fri 17 Apr 2015, 7:25 pm

Rowley wrote:The whole bias argument makes me laugh. Was reading the Guardian the other week and everyone was moaning about Paxman's right wing bias in the leader interviews, funny nobody accused him of a bias before he revealed he classed himself as a one nation tory some time ago. Both sides of the debate are as guilty of seeing what they want to see on this one.

Yep.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 17 Apr 2015, 10:53 pm

Dave. wrote:Anyone booked the 8th off work? I have.


Not staying up all night for this......

Hope Labour win but it won't change my life any...

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Fri 17 Apr 2015, 11:18 pm

Alright for some.....

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Post by Lowlandbrit on Sun 19 Apr 2015, 3:11 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:Labour can't take power on their own (neither can Cons). Sturgeon has set her stall out firmly as king-maker and it seems clear she'll wipe out Labour from Scotland (even further emphasising Labour's inability to win majority).  Sturgeon's entire raison d'etre is screwing England on behalf of Scotland, and she's the only way Red Ed can get in power (don't think an LD tie-up will cut it, or happen).

Con-LD 'worked' as a coalition because they were just about sufficiently aligned politically & geographically so that the junior partner couldn't dictate terms.  This is not the same as SNP-Lab where one part controls one country and the other another and both are pitted directly against each-other's interests.

Sturgeon won't get into bed without a guarantee of major concessions/giveaways to Scotland, ergo if Labour wins England loses.
Labour seem to have decided it isn't worth putting too much effort in to Scotland since the SNP would most likely support whatever they do (as long as they don't do anything to hurt Scotland too much) where it really matters. The real problem with the strategy for them is that the Scottish Parliament elections are next year, and there's an outside chance the SNP could crush them so badly there that the Conservatives end up as the second biggest party, opening up the door for them to become competitive in Scotland again in the long run and leaving Labour an afterthought.

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Post by Nematode on Sun 19 Apr 2015, 7:15 pm

The SNP were always going to do well in the years after the referendum with such die-hard support from yes campaigners. Given most yes voters probably vote SNP, the 55% needs to be divvied up between Labour, Lib Dem & Tories so it's not surprising Labour aren't doing well.

What's hard to tell is how long it will last. Until Labour gets someone who can really sink their teeth into the SNP, it may last until the next GE.

What's surprising from my perspective is how the SNP continue to do so well. With the oil price collapsing, the thought of being independent is frighting.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Sun 19 Apr 2015, 8:23 pm

The SNP are riding high......But political love affairs don't last forever.....

Sooner or later controversial decisions will have to be made and support will be lost...

Very impressive leader Sturgeon....Learned from the master it seems.

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Post by Steffan on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 11:47 am

Sturg is amazing. I love Scottish women mind. My first proper girlfriend was Scottish as was the lecturer in university who gave me an 83 for my Museum Management essay

A female Scottish nationalist who doesn't want kids...it's like all my dreams come true at once heart

Hope they do well and heres hoping Leanne's performances have boosted a few Plaid votes

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Post by superflyweight on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 12:41 pm

Scottish politics is a really odd thing at the moment.  The agenda is being driven by a very vocal minority of existentialist nationalists who want independence regardless of the consequences (just need to look at responses to polls asking people if the drop in oil revenue matters).  

That minority is overwhelmingly backing the SNP and are promoting the SNP as a party of the people and claiming that Scotland will become a socialist utopia.  That, despite the fact that the SNP have not pursued a single redistributive policy in their 8 years in power in Scotland and were proposing to lower the rate of corporation tax following independence.

Try to point this out to anyone and they accuse you of being a tory or a unionist.  

It's like a cult.

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Post by Steffan on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 1:02 pm

I'm quite envious of Scottish people having a nationalist party doing so well

Sadly south Wales is embarrassingly a Labour (Tories dressed in red) stronghold and nothing is going to change that soon

The best we can hope for is that Plaid have a good campaign and force the Red Tories to share power of the assembly again

That being said Leanne said she doesn't want to prop up the Red Tories

Labour won't win in Westminister as lets be honest Milliband couldn't run a P up in a brewery

We in Cardiff though will unfortunately be stuck with them thanks to the morons voting them in yet again

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Post by Steffan on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 1:19 pm

That being said I come from a loaded family and have a job in the financial sector earning big bucks lined up when I graduate soon so I guess I have no reason to want to see an end to this austerity Laugh

I don't think your financial situation should effect who you vote for though

My uncle for example is a millionaire and has always voted Tory where my old man who is also minted (although not quite millionaire level) has always voted Labour

I've tried convincing him to vote Plaid and he wants to but hates admitting he is wrong for voting for the Red Tories

I reckon he will vote Plaid but pretend hes stuck to his Labour guns though. Despite being 71 years old he is still crafty like that

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 1:23 pm

Sturgeon sets out an unsurprisingly Labour-aligned London-hating manifesto.

Haven't seen any evidence of how she makes her spending figures stack up, though I haven't gone through in detail.

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Post by Steffan on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 1:51 pm

Sturge calls for Wales to receive parity with Scotland in the new manifesto Yahoo

I heart that woman

YMLAEN Wales

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Post by superflyweight on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 1:52 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:Sturgeon sets out an unsurprisingly Labour-aligned London-hating manifesto.

Haven't seen any evidence of how she makes her spending figures stack up, though I haven't gone through in detail.

Not worth the effort Toppy.  If they couldn't be arsed doing it for a referendum on independence - they won't have done it for a pissy little general election.

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Post by superflyweight on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 1:53 pm

Excellent blog highlighting the lack of thought that goes into SNP economic thinking.

http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/full-fiscal-autonomy-for-dummies.html


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Post by TopHat24/7 on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 2:58 pm

superflyweight wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:Sturgeon sets out an unsurprisingly Labour-aligned London-hating manifesto.

Haven't seen any evidence of how she makes her spending figures stack up, though I haven't gone through in detail.

Not worth the effort Toppy.  If they couldn't be arsed doing it for a referendum on independence - they won't have done it for a pissy little general election.

Replacing cuts with £140bn additional spending pa will take a lot of book balancing.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 4:11 pm

You should be happy...................Millions haven't registered to vote..

Tory majority nailed on !!

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Post by Steffan on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 4:21 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:You should be happy...................Millions haven't registered to vote..

Tory majority nailed on !!
I can deal with that. Once the Welsh Assembly gets extra powers they won't have any pull here

I still wouldn't rule out a Tory/UKIP coalition government in Westminster though forming the most right wing leadership ever seen in the UK

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 4:24 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:You should be happy...................Millions haven't registered to vote..

Tory majority nailed on !!

Well that bit's BS, but the rest is on point as to why polls are so misleading - look at LD's last time round.

Think Tories will take a slim margin but not a majority.

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Post by Steffan on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 4:26 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:Think Tories will take a slim margin but not a majority
Which would suit you...yes?

Also, where is Duty today? Is he too busy posting his UKIP leaflets to message on here at the moment

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 4:43 pm

No, I want an outright majority. Need a quality unencumbered government.

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Post by Steffan on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 4:52 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:No, I want an outright majority.  Need a quality unencumbered government
Not much chance of that happening. Between London, Cardiff and Edinburgh and now all the different parties involved I think we will be seeing more deals going on after an election than ever

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 4:56 pm

I'm not being funny or anything Steff.........

But why aren't Plaid doing better in Wales ??

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 5:00 pm

Steffan wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:No, I want an outright majority.  Need a quality unencumbered government
Not much chance of that happening. Between London, Cardiff and Edinburgh and now all the different parties involved I think we will be seeing more deals going on after an election than ever

Totally agree. But you asked what I 'wanted'.

Actually saying that, I wouldn't mind another LD hook-up. Think they mellowed the Tories a little.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 5:02 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:I'm not being funny or anything Steff.........

But why aren't Plaid doing better in Wales ??

Because nobody made a Welsh Braveheart movie....?

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Post by Steffan on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 5:06 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:I'm not being funny or anything Steff.........

But why aren't Plaid doing better in Wales ??
I ask myself this same question

Bottom line is though...south Wales which is pretty much the workshop of the nation is a staunch Labour area

Rural areas where people live in nice big houses have no interest in their socialist policies and often vote Tory

People like my old man will never vote Plaid as they just view them as the old Plaid where it was a party of middle class Welsh speakers

Despite being around for years Plaid are still relatively new to modern Welsh politics as a potentially major player

Now they finally have a south Walian non-Welsh speaking Valleys girl in charge who people can relate to you may see a rise in votes

Labour signs everywhere up by my parents though which is baffling considering how crap they are

That being said south Wales is by far an area of heavy Tory hatred so they view Labour as the safest and best option

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 5:21 pm

Labour had over 50% of the scottish vote so there is hope Steffy....

Start by doing yourself a favor by getting rid of that charisma-less lightweight that leads your party at the moment..

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Post by Lowlandbrit on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 5:34 pm

superflyweight wrote:That minority is overwhelmingly backing the SNP and are promoting the SNP as a party of the people and claiming that Scotland will become a socialist utopia.  That, despite the fact that the SNP have not pursued a single redistributive policy in their 8 years in power in Scotland and were proposing to lower the rate of corporation tax following independence.
That's partly because they positioned themselves more or less in the centre to get voters that at one point in time might have voted Tory, but the bigger they get, the more they think they can push Labour out of the nest on their left. That's why Labour would probably secretly love a formal coalition more than anyone, because it would allow them to try to do to the SNP what the Tories did to the Lib Dems, instead of going into Scottish elections on the back of a massive beating with the SNP likely taking credit for anything they do that works for Scotland.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon 20 Apr 2015, 6:52 pm

I have no doubt sturgeon wants a Tory government with the Holyrood elections coming next year...

They'll make a good lightning rod for SNP failure..

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Tue 21 Apr 2015, 8:52 am

Remember reading the same a while back. Scottish independence based parties prefer to Tory's in charge as they're more likley to grant independence referendums than Labour, despite greater policy alignment with the socialist left.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 21 Apr 2015, 11:54 am

Why did I miss something, Steffan?

As much as I have glorious dreams about a Tory/UKIP coalition, it will never happen at this election under a first-past-the-post-system.

This is despite the fact that most polls would seem to indicate that a majority of people from the United Kingdom at this election are voting for either the Conservatives or UKIP - around 35% and 15% respectively. Compare that to Labour and the SNP, the most likely coalition, who are amassing around 40% when combined.

Anyone see Miliband yesterday? So bereft of any real quality.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7bRbe4Tuqo

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 21 Apr 2015, 12:03 pm

I'm sure Atlee lacked Cameron's PR qualities...

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Post by Lowlandbrit on Tue 21 Apr 2015, 4:43 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:I have no doubt sturgeon wants a Tory government with the Holyrood elections coming next year...
Disagree (for the time being at least); I don't think the SNP are running a campaign, I think they're setting up a coup.
I think the SNP feel they have a once in a lifetime chance to eliminate Labour from Scotland and take their place; and what better way to finally show Scottish Labour are obsolete than playing nicely (for now) with Labour in Westminster to keep the Tories out of Downing Street?
And if moving to the left causes the Scottish Conservatives to grow their vote then it's a feature, not a bug, because the SNP would like nothing more than to ultimately be able to frame elections in Scotland as them vs the Tories (who are ironically now probably the driving force behind giving Scotland more financial control for very similar reasons).

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Post by Dave. on Tue 21 Apr 2015, 8:20 pm

Never had Paddy Ashdown as a Father Ted fan. Couldn't move for the.......today. wall to wall!

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Post by GSC on Wed 22 Apr 2015, 10:22 pm

Cameron has a much better case of bbc bias after those questions on radio one. The presenter was a complete joke.
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Post by Nematode on Fri 24 Apr 2015, 9:43 am

What do people think about the TV debates - do you think we'll see as many next year?

They seem to have been arranged very poorly this year and didn't really work. For instance, should the Greens have got, what, over 4 hours of airtime in debates when they have only 1MP and want to raise £1bn tax revenue from charging £1 for plastic bags, yet there was zero participation allowed from Northern Ireland?

There was very little detail on policy and a lot of scripted lines which made it pretty frustrating to understand what would be cut, and by how much. Also no mention of a new runway which could add £14bn trade to the UK...

I'd propose for next year a 1-1 televised interview, about 1.5hrs long, after the manifestos had been published that sought to get quantitative details from the parties. Also maybe have a chancellor's debate

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Post by Lowlandbrit on Fri 24 Apr 2015, 11:24 am

Nematode wrote:What do people think about the TV debates - do you think we'll see as many next year?
Most of them are pretty pointless, the broadcasters like them because they want to have the campaign take place on television and they're hoping for a Nixon/Kennedy moment. Every political party employs people to try and make sure that doesn't happen though, which is why they're usually so dull.
I don't really have a problem with the Greens being involved since they are standing in most of the seats. I would have had the national debates with Con, Lab, LibDem, Green and UKIP for that reason, with more attention for seperate debates in each country/region (along local BBC/ITV lines for instance) to give more attention to local issues. It's no secret that Sturgeon has done a lot better in the UK wide debates than the Scottish ones, because there the others can just talk about Scotland without having to think about issues in the rest of the UK too.
I think the most interesting debates have actually been the ones the Daily Politics are doing with the spokespeople for the various policy areas, which I suppose is similar to the idea for a Chancellors debate. Allows for a more policy based discussion and gives you a more varied look at the people in the different parties.

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Post by Rowley on Fri 24 Apr 2015, 11:28 am

In all fairness Nematode the Greens have as many MP's as UKIP, you exclude one you should exclude them both. I tend to agree with your suggestion for a head to head, be it propped up by a secondary party or with an outright majority the reality is there are only two people who will be the next PM, Cameron or Miliband, as such I see the merit to seeing them go head to head.

There should have certainly been other debates with the other parties involved, particularly as a cohilition looks increasingly likely, but having seven in the same debate just dilutes the format and does not really allow time for anything other than soundbites and brief analysis.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Fri 24 Apr 2015, 11:35 am

Have never seen the point in them, or why people get so (over-)excited about them.

We're not American, deal with it.

I've never seen or heard anything in a debate that's changed my mind. Last time round (the 'better'/more organised version) all that happened was everyone was pleasantly surprised how good Nick Clegg was and his polling surged - but this wasn't reflected in either seats won or even popular vote at the actual GE.

Leader's are mouthpieces for their parties. Agree with Lowland that policy based discussion is more interesting.

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Post by Duty281 on Fri 24 Apr 2015, 11:39 am

Rowley wrote:In all fairness Nematode the Greens have as many MP's as UKIP,

No they don't.

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Post by Rowley on Fri 24 Apr 2015, 12:01 pm

Ok one less, fair cop, but there are a good number of parties with more who were not invited to the debates, include one marginal party you should include them all.

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Post by GSC on Fri 24 Apr 2015, 12:20 pm

I must admit, I could happily do without the Greens, UKIP, Plaid Cymru and the SNP
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Post by TopHat24/7 on Fri 24 Apr 2015, 12:59 pm

They just turn it into more of a playground squabble, a distraction from the main parties. Their only relevance is that this time round a hung parliament looks so clear.

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Post by GSC on Fri 24 Apr 2015, 2:14 pm

That's precisely why Cameron wanted the Greens.

Turn it into a farce
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