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Barcelona Open 2015

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CaledonianCraig
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It Must Be Love
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Post by Matchpoint Tue 21 Apr 2015, 6:53 pm

First topic message reminder :

Draw: http://www.atpworldtour.com/share/event-draws.aspx?year=2015&eventid=425

Although Djokovic has been doing all the winning of late, the lead character in the current clay season scenario is still Nadal. He did better this year than last year in MC, reaching the semi and thereby moving up the ranking from #5 to #4. Would Nadal  continue to gain momentum this week and win Barcelona? Hard to stay. To win Barcelona he'd probably have to defeat a very motivated defending champ Nishikori who will definitely fight very hard to recapture his earlier #4 place back from Nadal. Will the main attraction be the battle of #4?


 Kei looked pretty good winning his opening match in straights. Good to see a non-Spaniard posing a real threat on clay for a change. Buckle your seat belt and stay tuned! Bubbly

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Post by It Must Be Love Sat 25 Apr 2015, 2:31 pm

bogbrush wrote:Nonsense, they were ever going to enforce the rules while Rafa was at the top of the game. I think he'll get a much harder time now he's not the focus of the sport.
Bogbrush, I've watched every game Nadal has played from 2013 to 2015, and if not anything Nadal now takes longer between points than he did in 2013.

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Post by Haddie-nuff Sat 25 Apr 2015, 2:34 pm

Nonsense, they were ever going to enforce the rules while Rafa was at the top of the game. I think he'll get a much harder time now he's not the focus of the sport.

Isnt there another thread that has done this subject to death
Do you think you could air your views there.
There are enough negatives being discussed about Nadal this is only your opinion and nothing to do with the state of his game it is pure conjecture on your part.

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Post by bogbrush Sat 25 Apr 2015, 2:34 pm

I doubt that. It's clear the sport has had enough of the cheating over time; just a pity it didn't come to its senses ten years ago and we didn't have to watch one hour 8/9 game sets become commonplace.
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Post by bogbrush Sat 25 Apr 2015, 2:36 pm

Haddie-nuff wrote:Nonsense, they were ever going to enforce the rules while Rafa was at the top of the game. I think he'll get a much harder time now he's not the focus of the sport.

Isnt there another thread that has done this subject to death
Do you think you could air your views there.
There are enough negatives being discussed about Nadal this is only your opinion and nothing to do with the state of his game it is pure conjecture on your part.
Sorry, I thought this thread was being heavily used to discuss Nadals struggles. To my mind this is the leading cause.
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Post by Haddie-nuff Sat 25 Apr 2015, 2:40 pm

bogbrush wrote:
Haddie-nuff wrote:Nonsense, they were ever going to enforce the rules while Rafa was at the top of the game. I think he'll get a much harder time now he's not the focus of the sport.

Isnt there another thread that has done this subject to death
Do you think you could air your views there.
There are enough negatives being discussed about Nadal this is only your opinion and nothing to do with the state of his game it is pure conjecture on your part.
Sorry, I thought this thread was being heavily used to discuss Nadals struggles. To my mind this is the leading cause.

So it is but its only your view that it is the problem, no one else's. To me its another invitation to discuss Nadal's time violations.. he has more problems than that imo

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Post by Henman Bill Sat 25 Apr 2015, 2:44 pm

Is Nadal really just out of form? If so, did he just happen to be in good form every year from 2005 to 2014 during the clay court season? In the past, an out of form Nadal still scooped up clay titles for fun.

Not a huge surprise the Fognini loss, is it? I guess Ferrer could go on and take the title from here. Looking on wikipedia I make it 4 finals, all lost to Rafa. Looking for his 5th final here and 1st win.

Would I be right in thinking he has never won of the main tournaments of the clay swing in Europe (i.e. 1000s+Barcelona+RG). This could be his biggest ever clay win, on home turf?

After his 4th title of the season. He beat Nishikori this season already in a final.

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Post by Belovedluckyboy Sat 25 Apr 2015, 3:07 pm

Ferrer did win at Valencia in 2008 when its played on clay.

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Post by summerblues Sat 25 Apr 2015, 3:25 pm

I am of two minds on the impact of time violation clampdown on Rafa.

On one hand, Rafa has always been one of the worst time violators, so presumably he believed it worked well for him (I doubt the OCD hypothesis, in fact Rafa himself just about admitted to the more prosaic reasons for taking extra time). So from that angle it seems plausible that stricter time enforecement would hurt him.

On the other hand, I am not sure the rule is applied more strictly now than in 2013 (though I could be wrong), and he did just fine in 2013.

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Post by summerblues Sat 25 Apr 2015, 3:36 pm

I still have Rafa as the RG favorite. As others have said, the guy lost one match there over 10 years. He just about has to be the favorite until someone dethrones him.

Also, who can beat him there? Even in his current form, I do not see the likes of Fognini having a chance in a BO5 - especially not with Rafa fighting tooth and nail as I am sure he will be.

Other than Nole, everyone has to be a huge underdog in a match against Rafa at RG. I can perhaps see Nishi beating him if stars align and everything just clicks in his favor, but pretty much noone else.

So that leaves Nole. He might have a better than 50% chance in a one-off match but I also think that - their current form notwithstanding - Nole is more likely to go out early.

All in all pretty close for me between Rafa and Nole, but would still give Rafa the edge - and that is unlikely to change no matter what happens in Madrid and Rome.

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Post by temporary21 Sat 25 Apr 2015, 3:39 pm

Leave the time violation guff to the thread it was originally discussed in. Also take care in stating conjecture as fact

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Post by Belovedluckyboy Sat 25 Apr 2015, 3:46 pm

Rafa takes a longer time to get back his form this time because:

1) he missed his training block last year and only started training in late Dec,due to his surgery;
2) his stamina suffered as he didn't compete and train due to injury/illness;
3) he hasn't got back to his normal stamina level ye,t may need some more match plays;
4) he's older now so may take longer this time to recover; or
5) he may be in decline?

When he hit his prime and peak during 2008-2011, he did play well for most parts of the season unless he was injured, like during 2009. In 2008, he didn't only do well during clay season but also on grass and the HCs - 2Slam SF, 1Masters title and 1 final and 3 SFs and 1 Olympics title on the HCs. He finished the year 2008 being no. 1 on clay and grass, and no.2 on HCs just behind Novak. In 2010 he finished the year as no1 on clay and grass and no.2 on the HCs just behind Fed. In 2011 he was first on clay and second on grass behind Novak, though he didn't do that well on the HCs, he still reached the final of IW/Miami, USO and Tokyo.

I won't say Rafa was in good form just during the clay season, as he was good throughout the season during his peak years of 2008-2011 ( except 2009 when he had his injury). In fact Rafa was also doing well on HC and clay during 2012-2014, it's only on grass that he did poorly.

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Post by LuvSports! Sat 25 Apr 2015, 3:58 pm

So stats wise (win % and finals reached) his best year was 2013. He was 26/27 for that.
So he peaked from 22-25. Off the peak at 25/26 but back in peak at 26/27?
Eh?

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Post by Born Slippy Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:10 pm

This Andujar v Ferrer match is good value. Ferrer hanging in.

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Post by temporary21 Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:20 pm

6-6 in the 1st set breaker, good stuff.
Give me a moment gents ive got an idea

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Post by CaledonianCraig Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:23 pm

temporary21 wrote:6-6 in the 1st set breaker, good stuff.
Give me a moment gents ive got an idea

You sound like Michael Caine in the Italian Job. laughing
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Post by Born Slippy Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:23 pm

Impressive from Andujar to win the tiebreak from 2-6.

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Post by laverfan Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:23 pm

Too many missed opportunities for Ferrer. Andujar has the first set.

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Post by Born Slippy Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:25 pm

Not really seen Andujar play before. He is a very stylish player. Backhand is a shot of real quality.

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Post by summerblues Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:26 pm

In my hotel room with no tennis on TV, so just following scores and do not see the play. Regardless, I was sure Andujar would drop the set after he failed to serve it out and then fell behind in the TB.

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Post by Matchpoint Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:26 pm

Looks like Ferrer may not even make final, unless he wins the next too sets vs Andu. Even if he gets thru, i don't think he's in form to overcome Kei, too inconsistent. 

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Post by laverfan Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:27 pm

Yes, he has some claim to fame, holding MPs vs Nadal during the Golden Swing. He was hitting as hard as he could and Ferrer put up mid-court balls on a few occasions during the TB. He has been pulling Ferrer side-to-side with excellent placement as well.

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Post by temporary21 Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:28 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:
temporary21 wrote:6-6 in the 1st set breaker, good stuff.
Give me a moment gents ive got an idea

You sound like Michael Caine in the Italian Job. laughing
Hopefully my ideas better than Caines

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Post by laverfan Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:29 pm

summerblues wrote:In my hotel room with no tennis on TV, so just following scores and do not see the play.  Regardless, I was sure Andujar would drop the set after he failed to serve it out and then fell behind in the TB.

You should be able to use your computer to use WatchESPN and use your SP cable subscription login.

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Post by laverfan Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:30 pm

Vesley has a chance to a title in Bucharest. Monfils lost to GGL in three sets in the other SF.

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Post by temporary21 Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:33 pm

Ferrer now bang in trouble. Is he feeling the pressure without Rafa in the draw?

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Post by summerblues Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:34 pm

Thanks LF but I am here computerless (with just a phone), plus this is a very different country so suspect ESPN might not work anyway. In fact it is just about bedtime for me now, so I will leave it to David and Pablo to fight it out while I am asleep.

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Post by summerblues Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:40 pm

Falzy, before I sign off, I am noting you kept your post but deleted my response. Of the two, my post struck me as less inflamatory, so I am hoping that whatever idea you have will include some further - and improved - handling of that branch of this thread.

I will see tomorrow when I wake up. Cheers for now.

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Post by temporary21 Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:42 pm

summerblues wrote:Falzy, before I sign off, I am noting you kept your post but deleted my response.  Of the two, my post struck me as less inflamatory, so I am hoping that whatever idea you have will include some further - and improved - handling of that branch of this thread.

I will see tomorrow when I wake up. Cheers for now.
My response was edited by myself, and rendered your post unneeded and off topic. Asking to keep things in their thread is what I am supposed to do.

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Post by bogbrush Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:42 pm

temporary21 wrote:Leave the time violation guff to the thread it was originally discussed in. Also take care in stating conjecture as fact
Are those forum rules or just a personal opinion?

Bear in mind the time violation subject (certainly isn't guff) was discussed elsewhere in the context of how annoying it is. Here we are discussing it in the context of Nadals defeat at Barcelona (and elsewhere).
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Post by temporary21 Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:45 pm

Rule 4, all three of us want to keep discussions from derailing topics. Theres a recent topic for that, and a new one just for this occassion.

Back on topic, Ferrer is hanging in... just.

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Post by Belovedluckyboy Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:48 pm

LuvSports, in 2012 Rafa had his injuries, how could he be in peak form??

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Post by Belovedluckyboy Sat 25 Apr 2015, 4:59 pm

Poor Ferrer, the Barcelona title is not meant to be his. Andujar plays so well, I hope he can play this way in the final.

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Post by Matchpoint Sat 25 Apr 2015, 5:00 pm

Andujar (who?) clap

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Post by temporary21 Sat 25 Apr 2015, 5:01 pm

Wp Andujar. A rose for Daveed, one day maybe...

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Post by LuvSports! Sat 25 Apr 2015, 5:21 pm

Belovedluckyboy wrote:LuvSports, in 2012 Rafa had his injuries, how could he be in peak form??

That ignored the 2013 bit when he had his highest ever win% for a season and made it to 14 finals winning 10 - aged 27.

The point is your peak as a player and when you are most successful are not the same thing.

Also 2012 aus, clay court swing and FO. Good no?

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Post by Jahu Sat 25 Apr 2015, 5:22 pm

Ninja will slice the Spanish Armada tomorrow, like a expired Jamón ibérico, right in the Barcelona, in front of their crowd.

Go Ninja go.

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Post by bogbrush Sat 25 Apr 2015, 5:42 pm

temporary21 wrote:Rule 4, all three of us want to keep discussions from derailing topics. Theres a recent topic for that, and a new one just for this occassion.

Back on topic, Ferrer is hanging in... just.
Could you direct me to it please? All I can see is one asking which of two players action is the most annoying behaviour. I want one where there's discussion of tennis.

Edit: ah, excellent there's a new one!
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Post by Belovedluckyboy Sat 25 Apr 2015, 6:01 pm

LuvSports, I've to say Rafa is a bit unique in that he peak at different times on different surfaces.. He peaked early on clay, probably from 2005/6 onwards to 2013; peaked on grass from 2007-2011 and then went downhill. He started to peak on HC at about 2008 until 2014, I'm not sure is he declining on HC starting this year as he's just 4 months into his comeback from surgery.

I do feel that Rafa was at his physical peak from 2008-2011 when his speed and power were at their best, injuries aside. IMO he's not doing well on grass after 2011 because as he gets older, it's more difficult to do well at both the channel slams within a season. He may not recover in time for grass after his efforts on clay. It's just like Fed after 2009 couldn't go deep at both slams but could only do well at one, in his case at Wimbledon. Game wise Rafa is getting better even after his physical peak. Rafa is doing better at the HC slams because he has breaks for training and preparation before the HC slams, unlike on grass.

To summarize, Rafa was doing well on ALL three surfaces during his physical peak of 2008/2010, being no1 on two surfaces and no.2 on the third surface; and had it not for injury, his 2009 might be something similar to his 2008/2010. Had it not for Novak in 2011, Rafa might have won the IW/Miami combo plus Wimbledon and USO too, making it another 3 slams year!

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Post by Henman Bill Sun 26 Apr 2015, 12:54 am

Rafa improved on hard due to practice and the slowing of the courts. I suppose 2013 would be his best year on hard.
He declined on grass due to his knees and the low bounce in my opinion.
Clay I think he peaked in 2008-2011 when he was an utter beast but he has always been good on it, until now.

Quite surprised to see Ferrer lose. I don't know much about Andujar but didn't expect that. I can't help but wonder if Ferrer is a bit of a bottler. When it's Nadal in the final he gets to the final all the time but when the draw opens up, he loses.

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Post by summerblues Sun 26 Apr 2015, 1:00 am

temporary21 wrote:My response was edited by myself, and rendered your post unneeded and off topic. Asking to keep things in their thread is what I am supposed to do.
I beg to differ. My post (in response to your two sentence post) went something like this:

Re first sentence: please watch your language and tone.

Re second sentence: I do not follow.

This is neither inappropriate nor off-topic, so please restore it. If you want to delete, then please also delete your preceding post in its entirety (no editing or replacements).

Also, you still have not addressed my second point. Re my first point, you did edit out the mild swear word from your initial reply, so it would appear the best course of action on your part would be to keep my post as is and reply with sometyhing like "apologies, I edited out offensive language from my post" rather than use your editing powers.

Finally, your moderating on this thread appears rather inappropriate. Sure, one could argue that discussing RafaMs form is off-topic on this thread but a Rafa loss is bound to bring such discussions. Even more importantly, it was not BB who ventured into Rafa game analysis territory, you just seemed to have specific problem with his suggestion that the time rule could be the culprit, but not with other - equally off-topic - suggestions.

It would appear you are attempting to "moderate" the thread based on your personal preferences.

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Post by Henman Bill Sun 26 Apr 2015, 1:09 am

SB, the argument that Djokovic is more likely to lose early at FO before facing Rafa...I always agreed with you before. This year.... I am not even sure about that argument anymore.

Djokovic record of avoiding early defeats is stronger than Rafa's at the moment.

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Post by Belovedluckyboy Sun 26 Apr 2015, 1:18 am

HB, Rafa was already winning HCMasters in 2005 and I dont think the courts were slow during 2005. Also, in 2013 he was winning on the quicker HCs of Montreal and Cincy. The USO court may have slowed down through the years but I doubt Rafa with his big serve of 2010 and great movement wont win a USO title on quicker court. He's not winning many HC slams anyway, but winning the Montreal/Cincy combo surprised many.

Rafa's knees were an issue on grass, but to me a greater issue was that he had to put in more effort to win on clay these days, so he was poor by the time grass season started. Let's see with an additional one week break and with more practice, would Rafa do better this time on grass.

On clay, Rafa has also started his decline, from 2014 onwards I feel.

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Post by Henman Bill Sun 26 Apr 2015, 1:25 am

US Open in 2006 was definately faster than recent years, not sure about the masters.

There is also the argument that Nadal would have adjusted his game successfully to an era of faster courts.

Is there any argument that clay courts are getting faster? Could that be a factor? MC looked fast to me this year. I didn't see any matches at Barcelona though. Like a lot of TV packages, I only get 1000 and above.

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Post by LuvSports! Sun 26 Apr 2015, 2:09 am

The fastest clay are apparently madrid and Sao Paulo.
MC is always quite slow.

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Post by Belovedluckyboy Sun 26 Apr 2015, 4:06 am

Rafa could win on fast clay; he had been winning at Madrid or reaching the finals since it was played on clay starting from 2009, with the exception of slippery blue clay in 2012. He won three out of five played on red clay.

MC looked a bit quick this year, but thats not the reason Rafa lost.

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Post by bogbrush Sun 26 Apr 2015, 6:45 am

The last thing Rafa wants now is super-slow clay.
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Post by Belovedluckyboy Sun 26 Apr 2015, 6:45 am

Surprisingly, Rafa's records at the slower HCs aren't as good as his records on the relatively quicker courts. Other than IW with the high bounces where Rafa won three titles, he wasn't any successful at Miami which was one of the slowest HCs around.

Rafa only managed 4 on slow HCs - 3 Iw and 1 AO. He had 8 on quicker HCs - 1 Madrid indoors, 1 Dubai, 1 Tokyo, 1 Beijing Open in 2005, 1 Beijing Olympics, 2 Montreal and 1 Cincy. I consider Toronto of medium speed, quicker than IW/Miami but slower than Montreal and Cincy. So Rafa has 4 on medium speed HCs - 1 Doha, 1 Toronto and 2 USO.

Hes not as good as Fed, Novak and Murray on the HCs imo, so winning three HC slams and finishing one season as tied no.1 on HCs (in 2009 won AO and tied with Novak as no.1) and 2nd on HCs in 2008/2010/2013 are not bad results for him.

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Post by temporary21 Sun 26 Apr 2015, 11:44 am

summerblues wrote:
temporary21 wrote:My response was edited by myself, and rendered your post unneeded and off topic. Asking to keep things in their thread is what I am supposed to do.
I beg to differ.  My post (in response to your two sentence post) went something like this:

Re first sentence: please watch your language and tone.

Re second sentence: I do not follow.

This is neither inappropriate nor off-topic, so please restore it.  If you want to delete, then please also delete your preceding post in its entirety (no editing or replacements).

Also, you still have not addressed my second point.  Re my first point, you did edit out the mild swear word from your initial reply, so it would appear the best course of action on your part would be to keep my post as is and reply with sometyhing like "apologies, I edited out offensive language from my post" rather than use your editing powers.

Finally, your moderating on this thread appears rather inappropriate.  Sure, one could argue that discussing RafaMs form is off-topic on this thread but a Rafa loss is bound to bring such discussions.  Even more importantly, it was not BB who ventured into Rafa game analysis territory, you just seemed to have specific problem with his suggestion that the time rule could be the culprit, but not with other - equally off-topic - suggestions.

It would appear you are attempting to "moderate" the thread based on your personal preferences.
The reason for all the Rafa talk is given in the new thread.  Refer to that for your answer. The original wording was edited which made both points of your comment unneeded, as is your reply. I have easily allowed discussion of all topics you say I don't like, all that's been done us put them in their own topics, no discussion is being stopped.

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Post by Belovedluckyboy Sun 26 Apr 2015, 12:19 pm

Kei vs Andujar, I think Kei is too strong for Andujar. I doubt Andujar could continue with his winning momentum, Kei is simply playing some brilliant tennis at the moment. Looks like he's going to retain his crown here.

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Post by Jahu Sun 26 Apr 2015, 1:08 pm

...and possibly get the FO too Fingers Crossed
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