Final polls for GE15 and round up !!

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 06 May 2015, 3:24 pm

TNS -...............Con 33.................Lab .....32

Panelbase -.......SNP 48................Lab ......26 = wipeout !!

Opinion -..........Con 35.................Lab.......34

Yougov Wales...Lab 39..................Con 25..........Plaid 13 (Change the leader she's crap!!)

Comres .........Con 35..................Lab 30..........(Majority within the margin of error)

Yougov...........Con 34..................Lab 34...................

Ashcroft has Farage winning............

Ashcroft has Clegg safe.........

Ashcroft has IDS number 2 Esther Mcvey behind in her seat.............

Don't forget the big plus for the Tories is voter registration...................Like Republicans in the USA......They are more likely to register.....

Pollsters don't ask are you registered !!





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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Wed 06 May 2015, 3:25 pm

You'll be happy to know I am voting. And I'll be voting Green. I'm also getting paid to count the ballot, how ruddy fun that will be.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 06 May 2015, 3:27 pm

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:You'll be happy to know I am voting. And I'll be voting Green. I'm also getting paid to count the ballot, how ruddy fun that will be.

Good for you Mate..............You should vote............

Can I ask why Green ??

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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Wed 06 May 2015, 3:34 pm

I went through some policies on schooling and health and agreed mostly with Green and Lib Dem. Green won't win, but I feel voting for them in a place they'll lose is important for them to continue growth.

I wouldn't vote for either of the big two and still despise the games of elections and party politics, but the Greens can't grow if people don't bother to support them.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 06 May 2015, 3:57 pm

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:I went through some policies on schooling and health and agreed mostly with Green and Lib Dem. Green won't win, but I feel voting for them in a place they'll lose is important for them to continue growth.

I wouldn't vote for either of the big two and still despise the games of elections and party politics, but the Greens can't grow if people don't bother to support them.

Good a reason as any................Need to get a good leader......

If they'd had Lucas doing the debates I reckon they'd be doing a lot better..........

Very good communicator and politician and I hope she retains Brighton

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Post by dummy_half on Wed 06 May 2015, 4:01 pm

One thing that I have noticed is how little the polls seem to have changed over the course of the campaign despite the apparently large number of undecided and 'weak' supporters.

I can envisage the nightmare scenario - Conservatives are the largest party and get something like 290-300 seats, but the Lib Dems are wiped out (<10 seats), while the DUP and UKIP only get a handful of seats between them. On the other side Labour and the SNP combined (+/- Plaid and Greens) have at least the 323-325 seats needed for an effective majority (Speaker not voting and Sinn Fein MPs not taking their seats).

It does seem preposterous to me that the party that gets most seats could find themselves in a position where they cannot form a stable coalition of centre and right parties.

Wonder what odds the bookies would give on the chance of a Conservative and Labour coalition, to keep the fringe parties out?

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 06 May 2015, 4:04 pm

dummy_half wrote:One thing that I have noticed is how little the polls seem to have changed over the course of the campaign despite the apparently large number of undecided and 'weak' supporters.

I can envisage the nightmare scenario - Conservatives are the largest party and get something like 290-300 seats, but the Lib Dems are wiped out (<10 seats), while the DUP and UKIP only get a handful of seats between them. On the other side Labour and the SNP combined (+/- Plaid and Greens) have at least the 323-325 seats needed for an effective majority (Speaker not voting and Sinn Fein MPs not taking their seats).

It does seem preposterous to me that the party that gets most seats could find themselves in a position where they cannot form a stable coalition of centre and right parties.

Wonder what odds the bookies would give on the chance of a Conservative and Labour coalition, to keep the fringe parties out?

They usually don't change much................Think the only time they changed wildly was when Prescott smacked that Farmer in 2001........

Labour went up about ten points overnight.........Certainly cemented my vote !!

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Post by dummy_half on Wed 06 May 2015, 4:20 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
dummy_half wrote:One thing that I have noticed is how little the polls seem to have changed over the course of the campaign despite the apparently large number of undecided and 'weak' supporters.

I can envisage the nightmare scenario - Conservatives are the largest party and get something like 290-300 seats, but the Lib Dems are wiped out (<10 seats), while the DUP and UKIP only get a handful of seats between them. On the other side Labour and the SNP combined (+/- Plaid and Greens) have at least the 323-325 seats needed for an effective majority (Speaker not voting and Sinn Fein MPs not taking their seats).

It does seem preposterous to me that the party that gets most seats could find themselves in a position where they cannot form a stable coalition of centre and right parties.

Wonder what odds the bookies would give on the chance of a Conservative and Labour coalition, to keep the fringe parties out?

They usually don't change much................Think the only time they changed wildly was when Prescott smacked that Farmer in 2001........

Labour went up about ten points overnight.........Certainly cemented my vote !!

Perhaps Cameron missed his chance then - should have given Farage a right hook at the end of the leader's debate...

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Post by Rowley on Wed 06 May 2015, 4:31 pm

dummy_half wrote:

Perhaps Cameron missed his chance then - should have given Farage a right hook at the end of the leader's debate...

Have never done it in the past and have no intention of doing it any time soon but Cameron smacking Farage one could even make me consider voting tory!

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Post by Lowlandbrit on Wed 06 May 2015, 4:49 pm

Here's an interactive version of the same model Newsnight have been using for their seat projections:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

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Post by Fernando on Wed 06 May 2015, 4:55 pm

Where i live 57.9% are expected to vote Tory Laugh Ive still not decided.

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Post by dummy_half on Wed 06 May 2015, 5:10 pm

Fernando wrote:Where i live 57.9% are expected to vote Tory Laugh Ive still not decided.

Just over 50% in my constituency. Doubt I'll be one of them though...

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Post by Fernando on Wed 06 May 2015, 5:15 pm

dummy_half wrote:
Fernando wrote:Where i live 57.9% are expected to vote Tory Laugh Ive still not decided.

Just over 50% in my constituency. Doubt I'll be one of them though...

Well ive watched the BBC news at 6 every day for the last 3 weeks and barring baby news it's been tory's attacking Miliband/SNP/UKIP and not actually pointing out anything decent that helps there case Laugh

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 07 May 2015, 9:43 am

Fernando wrote:
dummy_half wrote:
Fernando wrote:Where i live 57.9% are expected to vote Tory Laugh Ive still not decided.

Just over 50% in my constituency. Doubt I'll be one of them though...

Well ive watched the BBC news at 6 every day for the last 3 weeks and barring baby news it's been tory's attacking Miliband/SNP/UKIP and not actually pointing out anything decent that helps there case Laugh

Lynton Crosby-itis.................Spewing crap works in Australia.............In fairness it works back home too !!

British people like the underdog........You chuck too much crap at people and they don't think it's fairplay....

It's a trait to be proud of !!!..

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Post by Steffan on Thu 07 May 2015, 12:20 pm

I want to go out and vote now and get it done with but expecting the postman to turn up soon with some expensive vinyl records so have to wait for him

Good luck to all the Plaid Cymru candidates in Wales today Wales

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 07 May 2015, 12:30 pm

Are you going to vote with your fellow Plaid colleagues...Steffy ??

Better ring the polling booth up first...........See If they'll allow all five of you in at the same time !!!.

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Post by MIG on Thu 07 May 2015, 12:44 pm

Still undecided. I don't do politics at all but feel I should be voting so I'm trying my best to come to a conclusion. I was going to vote Tories basically cause they are doing a better job than Labour did the last time. But when taking online quizes I'm coming out either Lib Dem (who I voted for last time) or Greens. Also like Cameron if I'm honest. Help!

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Post by Lowlandbrit on Thu 07 May 2015, 12:51 pm

MIG wrote:Still undecided. Help!
Do you know anything about your local candidates?

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Post by MIG on Thu 07 May 2015, 12:51 pm

Lowlandbrit wrote:
MIG wrote:Still undecided. Help!
Do you know anything about your local candidates?
No, only that my area is very pro Conservative.

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Post by Derbymanc on Thu 07 May 2015, 1:08 pm

Vote for who you think is gonna do best for you MIG, if your happy with the tories and what they've been doing then vote for them

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Thu 07 May 2015, 1:20 pm

Vote in self-interest. The party that will do the best job for you and your family.

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Post by Steffan on Thu 07 May 2015, 1:27 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Are you going to vote with your fellow Plaid colleagues...Steffy ??

Better ring the polling booth up first...........See If they'll allow all five of you in at the same time !!!
I know plenty of people who are voting Plaid. We may not win in my constituency but spare me the whole 'one man and his dog are voting National Party of Wales' crap

I expect you will voting Labour. Sturgeon will make a good leader for this country dominating that bumbling buffoon if he gets in

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Thu 07 May 2015, 1:58 pm

Do you think Sturgeon will be good for Wales, Steffan?

I.e. wins for Scotland reciprocating as wins for Wales?

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Post by Steffan on Thu 07 May 2015, 2:02 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:Do you think Sturgeon will be good for Wales, Steffan?

I.e. wins for Scotland reciprocating as wins for Wales?
Yes Sturg will make that idiot gave Wales the same power as Scotland. Something we have been denied of so far

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 07 May 2015, 2:33 pm

MIG wrote:Still undecided.  I don't do politics at all but feel I should be voting so I'm trying my best to come to a conclusion.  I was going to vote Tories basically cause they are doing a better job than Labour did the last time.  But when taking online quizes I'm coming out either Lib Dem (who I voted for last time) or Greens.  Also like Cameron if I'm honest.  Help!

Shave your head......Get some tattoos..........and go and vote BNP.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 07 May 2015, 2:37 pm

Steffan wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:Do you think Sturgeon will be good for Wales, Steffan?

I.e. wins for Scotland reciprocating as wins for Wales?
Yes Sturg will make that idiot gave Wales the same power as Scotland. Something we have been denied of so far

Labour is the largest party in Wales by a mile and they've f**ked up big style over there...........

Plaid are polling where they were in 2010............

Waste of time....

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Post by RuggerRadge2611 on Thu 07 May 2015, 2:37 pm

Be careful what you wish for Steffan. Greater power is a 2 edged sword and as with Scotland you'll find that the people of Wales will have to pick a side of the argument to stand on.

I have become a pariah to some circles of both friends and family post indyref.

As for Scotland I have voted for a candidate that will have influence in the UK. Since Sturgeon is an MSP and is unable to become an MP, she is about as relevant as Barrack Obama to the UK general election so my choice was clear.

Some of the social media accounts in Scotland have gone beyond parody.
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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 07 May 2015, 2:42 pm

Sturgeon is leader of the SNP..............The SNP are going to be the third largest party in Westminster.............

Anyone that thinks she isn't a big player in any UK general election as regards direction of the party south of the border...

Is a little naive...

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Post by RuggerRadge2611 on Thu 07 May 2015, 2:45 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Sturgeon is leader of the SNP..............The SNP are going to be the third largest party in Westminster.............

Anyone that thinks she isn't a big player in any UK general election as regards direction of the party south of the border...

Is a little naive...

But she cannot and will not ever be a prime minister. She cannot even be an MP. Nothing naive about it. It is a fact.

She was/is a random irrelevance in this election. Nevertheless she seems to have persuaded thousands of Scots to vote for her party, despite the fact she will have no position in the government she will be negotiating for her colleagues to form.
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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 07 May 2015, 2:48 pm

If Labour do win they'll be a sea of change in British politics...........The Cameron haters will take it as proof that If they were more right wing they'd have won the election.....

They'll probably lurge to the right and it will be a big mistake.....

Elections are won in the center both here and at home..........Unless you have Al Qaeda sniffing about...Like Bush did in 2004..........

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Post by Steffan on Thu 07 May 2015, 2:53 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Steffan wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:Do you think Sturgeon will be good for Wales, Steffan?

I.e. wins for Scotland reciprocating as wins for Wales?
Yes Sturg will make that idiot gave Wales the same power as Scotland. Something we have been denied of so far
Plaid are polling where they were in 2010............

Waste of time....
So what you mean is I shouldn't vote for a party whose policies and ideals I agree with as its a waste of time?

Rightio then...

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 07 May 2015, 3:00 pm

Steffan wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Steffan wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:Do you think Sturgeon will be good for Wales, Steffan?

I.e. wins for Scotland reciprocating as wins for Wales?
Yes Sturg will make that idiot gave Wales the same power as Scotland. Something we have been denied of so far
Plaid are polling where they were in 2010............

Waste of time....
So what you mean is I shouldn't vote for a party whose policies and ideals I agree with as its a waste of time?

Rightio then...

No I think you should...............Think it's a waste of time expecting an earthquake...........If there isn't a move against the major parties in Wales now when will there be ??

The Greens are up in the polls and have the fastest growing membership in England...............The SNP are the bollox in Scotland...........

and your lot are still where they were last time....


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Post by RuggerRadge2611 on Thu 07 May 2015, 3:12 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Steffan wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Steffan wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:Do you think Sturgeon will be good for Wales, Steffan?

I.e. wins for Scotland reciprocating as wins for Wales?
Yes Sturg will make that idiot gave Wales the same power as Scotland. Something we have been denied of so far
Plaid are polling where they were in 2010............

Waste of time....
So what you mean is I shouldn't vote for a party whose policies and ideals I agree with as its a waste of time?

Rightio then...

No I think you should...............Think it's a waste of time expecting an earthquake...........If there isn't a move against the major parties in Wales now when will there be ??

The Greens are up in the polls and have the fastest growing membership in England...............The SNP are the bollox in Scotland...........

and your lot are still where they were last time....

The SNP and their fan base are all over the place though. It's hard to argue with their apparent dominance but it's a mystery to me how they have captivated so much support.

Let me explain.

Their supporters were filmed at the weekend screaming “Red Tories Out” at Jim Murphy who was campaigning in Glasgow, despite the fact that for the SNP to have any influence whatsoever depends on Labour (AKA The Red Tories) getting more seats than the Conservatives. Otherwise a coalition between the Conservatives and UKIP looks likely.

All the while the SNP are encouraging people in England to vote Green,despite the fact that the Green Party’s manifesto (if executed) would almost certainly spell disaster for the North Sea Oil industry in Scotland. An industry that almost completely underpins the SNP manifesto's spending plans. Getting confused yet?

Finally the SNP have set themselves up as a Paragons of socialism despite begging George Osborne to slash the Taxes levied on all of the North Sea Oil Companys that include Shell. BP and Exxon, companies who’s profits run into the billions of pounds. Not very socialist if you asked me.
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Post by Mike Selig on Thu 07 May 2015, 3:17 pm

I voted. Unfortunately our ridiculous voting system means that it would have been pointless to vote for the party I most agree with so I went down the "tactical" route.

If nothing else I hope this election makes people realise just how ludicrous FPTP is in its current format and we seriously consider a different system.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 07 May 2015, 3:24 pm

The SNP aren't going to advocate the Miliband led Labour party in England are they ???..........In this election they are the enemy..

I mean the obvious question then will be..... Why not vote for the Miliband Labour in Scotland then If you're advocating them over here ??

Not sure the SNP will want Labour winning anyway.............Easier to use the Tories as a lightning rod for next years holyrood elections than a resurgent Labour !!!.

If they are putting through Labour's agenda at westminster then how do you blame them for stuff next year !!

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Post by Lowlandbrit on Thu 07 May 2015, 4:07 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Easier to use the Tories as a lightning rod for next years holyrood elections than a resurgent Labour !!!.
How aggressively could (what's left of) Labour campaign if they need their support for Westminster though?

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Post by Rowley on Thu 07 May 2015, 4:24 pm

I think the polls might be a bit off this time round. My boss has been pretty much committed to voting Green throughout, but now the reality of it actually kicks in (living in a marginal seat, potential government depending on proportion of vote etc) he has returned to Labour. Suspect he will not be the only one, suspect the tories can expect likewise from some of the UKIpers and we may see similar in Scotland. Very difficult election to predict with anything like confidence.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 07 May 2015, 5:03 pm

I'll be honest and say I'd probably vote Green If I wasn't in a lib/Lab marginal..........

My hatred of the principle-less orange rabble is too deep........to not try sticking the boot in.....

If my wife can be bothered like her Father she'll be going UKIP have a sneaking suspicion Mum-in-law will tell him she's voting UKIP but vote blue !!...........My Son likes Cameron too......But he'll be too lazy to make the trip..

Mum and Dad are in Tory land though...Where Rolf Harris would probably get elected If he had a blue rosette.

Hopefully my vote will count..

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Post by Steffan on Thu 07 May 2015, 5:11 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:and your lot are still where they were last time....
I didn't realise the results had been announced yet

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 07 May 2015, 5:14 pm

Steffan wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:and your lot are still where they were last time....
I didn't realise the results had been announced yet

Going by the polls mate.............Even if they are a bit outside the MoE you'll still be doing crap..

But all great things need to have a start...........and maybe 2015 is the start of something special.........Who knows !!!!!!!!!



Maybe North Korea will win the World cup !!

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Post by Steffan on Thu 07 May 2015, 5:24 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Steffan wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:and your lot are still where they were last time....
I didn't realise the results had been announced yet

Going by the polls mate.............Even if they are a bit outside the MoE you'll still be doing crap..

But all great things need to have a start...........and maybe 2015 is the start of something special.........Who knows !!!!!!!!!

Maybe North Korea will win the World cup !!
And maybe you will stop being a knob

We can all live in hope hey

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 07 May 2015, 5:31 pm

Steffan wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Steffan wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:and your lot are still where they were last time....
I didn't realise the results had been announced yet

Going by the polls mate.............Even if they are a bit outside the MoE you'll still be doing crap..

But all great things need to have a start...........and maybe 2015 is the start of something special.........Who knows !!!!!!!!!

Maybe North Korea will win the World cup !!
And maybe you will stop being a knob

We can all live in hope hey

More chance of a Plaid landslide !! thumbsup

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Final polls for GE15 and round up !! Empty Re: Final polls for GE15 and round up !!

Post by Steffan on Thu 07 May 2015, 7:12 pm

Actually Truss I was gonna vote UKIP but remembered that my parents goldfish don't speak a word of English and they could be deported so voted for Plaid instead

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Post by GSC on Thu 07 May 2015, 10:01 pm

Exit poll has Conservatives and the Lib Dems with a combined 326, or a majority
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Post by Duty281 on Thu 07 May 2015, 10:03 pm

Labour and the Liberal Democrats have been given a bit of a thrashing according to the exit poll.

UKIP impossible to predict.

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Post by JDizzle on Thu 07 May 2015, 10:03 pm

Wow. Even more of a wipeout for the LDs than expected.

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Post by GSC on Thu 07 May 2015, 10:05 pm

Yeah, the Conservatives at 316 is a major upset. Even if the Lib Dems are slightly short, they could rope in the DUP.

Labour are miles short. Even with the SNP
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Post by Duty281 on Thu 07 May 2015, 10:07 pm

I predicted yesterday that Clegg would lose his seat, the Lib Dems would collapse, and the Tories would fall short of a majority by ten - I might be more right than I thought!


Last edited by Duty281 on Thu 07 May 2015, 10:08 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Lowlandbrit on Thu 07 May 2015, 10:08 pm

If that exit poll is anything like right Tories must be getting more shy by the year.

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Post by GSC on Thu 07 May 2015, 10:08 pm

No place for Farage in that coalition. He had to beat Clegg to become a more attractive option I suspect.

At least we're close to getting a majority either way
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