YES is miles ahead of NO in latest EU referendum poll !!

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 02 Jun 2015, 2:14 pm

First topic message reminder :

Latest ICM poll - Should Britain stay in Europe ????...

Stay in 59%.......................Get out 41% .....

Common sense seems to be prevailing..


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Post by Duty281 on Thu 04 Feb 2016, 4:31 pm

It's a pointless measure enacted by a pathetic puppet leader.

Most EU migrants are here to work, not sponge off the state.

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Post by Duty281 on Thu 04 Feb 2016, 11:00 pm

Times/YouGov EU poll

45% Leave
36%  Remain
19% Don't know

Unsurprising after the pathetic negotiations.

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Post by superflyweight on Fri 05 Feb 2016, 9:09 am

Duty281 wrote:Times/YouGov EU poll

45% Leave
36%  Remain
19% Don't know

Unsurprising after the pathetic negotiations.

I'm not being argumentative or facetious in asking this, duty, but how many people do you think genuinely understand what deal has been struck this week and how many people would be impacted by the terms of that deal?

You're obviously very close to the whole question of whether or not we should leave the EU, but for many people it will come down to a simple question of either maintaining a relatively prosperous status quo or taking a step into the unknown. What we saw in Scotland in 2014 is that the silent majority tend to fall into the former camp.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Fri 05 Feb 2016, 11:42 am

Let's not forget the quite significant turnaround between the close polls and actual voting results in the Scots independence vote either.

As I think I remember pointing out to some muppet jingo on here, something like 20% more people voted to stay in the UK than leave, wasn't even that close in reality.

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Post by Duty281 on Fri 05 Feb 2016, 5:40 pm

superflyweight wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Times/YouGov EU poll

45% Leave
36%  Remain
19% Don't know

Unsurprising after the pathetic negotiations.

I'm not being argumentative or facetious in asking this, duty, but how many people do you think genuinely understand what deal has been struck this week and how many people would be impacted by the terms of that deal?  

You're obviously very close to the whole question of whether or not we should leave the EU, but for many people it will come down to a simple question of either maintaining a relatively prosperous status quo or taking a step into the unknown.  What we saw in Scotland in 2014 is that the silent majority tend to fall into the former camp.  

Perfectly fair question. People with a clear and sound interest in politics will understand, and will all have their own ideas (mostly with a negative view, I imagine, of what Cameron achieved) - that's approximately, say, between a third and two fifths of the electorate? If we base it off the amounts who vote in local elections.

Those with a casual interest will be influenced heavily by the media - the same media which has, surprisingly, lined up to give the Prime Minister a kicking.

I think for the majority of the electorate, as a whole, two main issues matter - the economy and immigration. And that is what will probably settle the question of the referendum. Yes, some will care about parliamentary sovereignty, and some will think of the fishing communities etc., but I think such issues will be largely sidelined in the final reckoning.

The topics of the economy and immigration will settle the whole question. The In-side will probably win the first of those arguments (not that I personally think their arguments are better); the out-side will win the second.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 05 Feb 2016, 10:45 pm

Duty281 wrote:Times/YouGov EU poll

45% Leave
36%  Remain
19% Don't know

Unsurprising after the pathetic negotiations.

It's an outlier.....

A few things to remember are the timing of the poll and that don't knows always break for the status quo by a healthy margin anyway
...


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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 05 Feb 2016, 11:02 pm

Stay 2/5 ..Leave 9/4....

That's before the party gets started for real..and Remain can reel out all the top politicians and businessmen..

Done deal..

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Post by Duty281 on Fri 05 Feb 2016, 11:18 pm

Corbyn 500/1, anyone? Whistle

Spoiler:

A highly-rated comment on the Guardian website wrote:1. Polls already show BREXIT ahead
2. The establishment media is split, unlike during the Scottish referendum and Corbyns election
3. The refugee crisis has been an absolute disaster for the EU and shows no sign of easing, however many more hundreds of millions of pounds of our tax money that Cameron now throws at it even as he starves our NHS of vital funds and people die in our hospitals from lack of attention.
4. Cameron has failed in his negotiations to get anything meaningful and appears like a weak supplicant grovelling to the Germans who now dominate the EU and we now even have him running round begging the Poles and God knows who else to please listen to him.
5. The EU is in a mess economically (Greece etc) and our economy is suffering within the EU
6. There is a strong prevailing view in the country and that the millions of immigrants who have invited themselves to our country from the low wage economies of the east in particular have helped to erode wage levels of British workers (black, white and brown), overloading our social services and driving up rents and house prices. Many people feel that we are a just a small very overcrowded island and that we should at least have the right to control our own borders.

Another highly-rated comment on the Guardian website wrote:• We have a heavy overall current account deficit with EU27 -. £52.4bn in 2010 and over £46bn in 2011 –but with the rest of the world a surplus of £15.1bn in 2010 and £17bn in 2011. The EU exports £28bn more in goods and services to us than we export to them.

• Our most successful trade is not with any EU27 state – it is with USA (surplus £22bn), Australia (£9.7bn) and Switzerland (£8.5bn) – all non EU28 (all 28 EU states including Britain) countries.

• Our trade with EU27 is falling – in goods and services by over 13% since 2000 but has increased by 12% with the rest of the world in the same period.

• Europe as a whole is in serious decline relative to the world. From 30% in 1980 its share of global wealth will fall to 17% in 2017 (IMF).

• Whilst the UK ‘s working population is set to rise many of Europe’s working populations are falling steeply - Germany by over 25% and Italy’s by over 20% by 2050 and Spain by 14% – the decline is endemic. This may be a reason why Germany is currently so eager to cram Europe with immigrants.

• The EU average external tariff on goods and services is a little over 1% and falling – it would not inhibit trade if we were out.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 05 Feb 2016, 11:27 pm

I could point to other polls and other articles but it would be pointless..

The odds makers are wrong...The commentators are wrong...The majority of polls are wrong..

Keep convincing yourself....You're the only one on here you are convincing..

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Post by Duty281 on Fri 05 Feb 2016, 11:33 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:I could point to other polls and other articles but it would be pointless..

The odds makers are wrong...The commentators are wrong...The majority of polls are wrong..

Keep convincing yourself....You're the only one on here you are convincing..

1) Yes, bookmakers are often wrong.
2) Political commentators are writing/talking now about the growing support for Brexit.
3) The most recent poll - the only one taken after the final negotiations had been announced - has Brexit winning.

I don't need to convince myself anymore. thumbsup

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 05 Feb 2016, 11:41 pm

A snap poll taken after bad news for remain and still well short of 50 percent....The news cycle will move on i'm afraid..

Commentators talk...So what's new...

Never seen a poor odds maker yet..


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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 11 Feb 2016, 5:12 pm

Leave is ahead in another poll...

ICM tracker....

Leave 43.....Stay 42....

Within MoE....and like I said don't knows as a rule mainly stay with the status quo..

But it's getting more interesting. .

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Post by Duty281 on Mon 15 Feb 2016, 4:16 pm

http://news.sky.com/story/1641899/farage-accepts-salmond-challenge-to-debate-eu

No sweat. Tear him apart, Nige!

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Post by superflyweight on Mon 15 Feb 2016, 4:38 pm

Duty281 wrote:http://news.sky.com/story/1641899/farage-accepts-salmond-challenge-to-debate-eu

No sweat. Tear him apart, Nige!

F*cking hell!!!

Can only think Salmond is doing this to boost chances of Scottish independence. He's clearly more self-aware than I thought and he knows that a vast majority of people in the UK think he's an absolute c*ntmuppet and would vote against him out of spite (I'd be tempted regardless of my many reservations on 'Brexit'). If the UK votes to leave the EU then we likely get a second Scottish independence referendum.

For the sake of f*ck!


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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon 15 Feb 2016, 7:12 pm

Comres poll....Over 65 voters...

Remain - 39.....Leave....52...

When you consider that the over 65 group is always most likely to vote....It's interesting...

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Post by Duty281 on Mon 15 Feb 2016, 7:39 pm

The 'Stronger in Europe' group said on one of their leaflets that 70% of students will vote to stay in the EU. I thought it would have been higher, around 90-95%, so I am actually quite encouraged by it.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Mon 15 Feb 2016, 10:01 pm

Louise Mensch has come out for Brexit...

Remain is in trouble now !!!!!

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Post by Duty281 on Mon 15 Feb 2016, 11:39 pm

Not as terrifying as Remain digging up Dinosaur Kinnock!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/open-letter-five-labour-heavyweights-7366871

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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 16 Feb 2016, 8:39 am

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Louise Mensch has come out for Brexit...
Done deal then....
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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 16 Feb 2016, 8:41 am

Duty281 wrote:Not as terrifying as Remain digging up Dinosaur Kinnock!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/open-letter-five-labour-heavyweights-7366871
...but at least Dino Kinnock has significant knowledge of the EU - unlike most of the 'Out' voters. One would think it logical that someone who has intimate knowledge of the EU would be the sort of person wheeled out to argue for remaining part of it.
What does being a "dinosaur" have to do with it? Personally, I'd rather someone with a bit of experience etc talking than some numpty 30-something, just because it's trendy for politicians to be young, as if that's sensible.
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Post by TopHat24/7 on Tue 16 Feb 2016, 9:14 am

Fourthly, there’s a fresh ComRes/ITV telephone poll on the EU referendum. As has been discussed a lot lately (I wrote about it here) there is a significant contrast between telephone polls on the EU referendum and online polls on the EU referendum, with the former tending to show a much better position for the REMAIN campaign. Today’s ComRes poll is the first telephone poll since the draft details of Cameron’s renegotiation were released, and they show a significant tighting of the race compared to previous telephone polls – topline voting intentions are REMAIN 49%(-5), LEAVE 41%(+5). The eight point lead for Remain is still much more positive for them than online polls are suggesting, but the movement towards leave since the draft deal was announced is the same. Full details of the poll are here.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Element in bold is my highlighting, as the commentary is frankly more interesting than the polling. In essence angry little keyboard warriors like to agressively vote LEAVE whereas when people are put in the spot on the phone REMAIN takes the lead.

Reflections of Scots independence and GE15 - what people are happy to say online or click anonymously is a lot different to what they'll actually do when staring at boxes in a polling booth.....

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Tue 16 Feb 2016, 9:16 am

navyblueshorts wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Louise Mensch has come out for Brexit...
Done deal then....

Wish that tiresome irrelevant bint would keep her nose out of politics since she ditched her loudmouth career in it.


Though it is a helpful development for remain! She's one step away from Katie Hopkins!!

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Tue 16 Feb 2016, 2:54 pm

Analysis piece from the Beeb:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32793642

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 16 Feb 2016, 2:56 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:
Fourthly, there’s a fresh ComRes/ITV telephone poll on the EU referendum. As has been discussed a lot lately (I wrote about it here) there is a significant contrast between telephone polls on the EU referendum and online polls on the EU referendum, with the former tending to show a much better position for the REMAIN campaign. Today’s ComRes poll is the first telephone poll since the draft details of Cameron’s renegotiation were released, and they show a significant tighting of the race compared to previous telephone polls – topline voting intentions are REMAIN 49%(-5), LEAVE 41%(+5). The eight point lead for Remain is still much more positive for them than online polls are suggesting, but the movement towards leave since the draft deal was announced is the same. Full details of the poll are here.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Element in bold is my highlighting, as the commentary is frankly more interesting than the polling.  In essence angry little keyboard warriors like to agressively vote LEAVE whereas when people are put in the spot on the phone REMAIN takes the lead.

Reflections of Scots independence and GE15 - what people are happy to say online or click anonymously is a lot different to what they'll actually do when staring at boxes in a polling booth.....

Although what is actually more significant is that these telephone polls, which used to have Remain as the clear winners - 55-36%; 56-35%; 54-36% - now have the race a lot closer, with less than a majority now favouring Remain.

The momentum is clearly on the side of Leave.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Tue 16 Feb 2016, 3:16 pm

Yep, that is interesting. Think DC's failed expedition onto the continent has damaged the REMAIN campaign somewhat. When in reality there are a number of factors at play right now (most notably the migrant crisis and the resulting domestic political pressures faced by his Eurozone counterparts) that should have made things easier.

Don't see any sign of momentum, just over-excitedness.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 16 Feb 2016, 3:24 pm

Not sure the Brit population is aware of all the arguments.....

My guess is when the heavyweights enter the argument ......Brits will vote for the status quo....

Think though that turnout will be important...

My guess is it will be quite close as the Brexit bunch will be more motivated..

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 17 Feb 2016, 10:30 am

Think it's worth remembering phone polls are more accurate than online polls..

All the phone polls have remain ahead..

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 17 Feb 2016, 8:26 pm

Hard to disagree.

"At the same time, our immigration policy forces us, in effect, to turn away qualified workers from the Commonwealth so as to free up unlimited space for migrants from the EU. The descendants of the men who volunteered to fight for Britain in two world wars must stand aside in favour of people with no connection to the United Kingdom."

Spoiler:
YES is miles ahead of NO in latest EU referendum poll !! - Page 8 CbbSILoW4AAfko_

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Thu 18 Feb 2016, 8:48 am

Moot point.

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Post by Azzy on Thu 18 Feb 2016, 4:07 pm

Europe has been bad for Britain since Roman times. Setting up the European Union was a bad idea and I'd like England to leave, and if Scotland wants to stay, let them become independent. Wales and Northern Ireland too. Booger the lot of them.

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Post by superflyweight on Thu 18 Feb 2016, 4:25 pm

Azzy wrote:Europe has been bad for Britain since Roman times. Setting up the European Union was a bad idea and I'd like England to leave, and if Scotland wants to stay, let them become independent. Wales and Northern Ireland too. Booger the lot of them.

Yeah - Christ knows how much better off we'd be without the advances in culture, language and architecture introduced by the Normans.

And to think that we've just been sitting here in our own little island all these years ignoring everyone and haven't at one point or another gone out and conquered about 99.9% of the known world (well 99.9% of those parts of the world where the only resistance is little brown people armed only with pieces of sharp fruit).

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Post by Azzy on Thu 18 Feb 2016, 4:28 pm

Okay super, you weren't the one I bet money on piping up first.

But on a serious note, what did the Normans do for us? Built the Tower of London, brought us horrible French cuisine and that ugly-sounding language of theirs, and their blooming religion? Thanks guys.

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Post by Pr4wn on Thu 18 Feb 2016, 4:32 pm

superflyweight wrote:
Azzy wrote:Europe has been bad for Britain since Roman times. Setting up the European Union was a bad idea and I'd like England to leave, and if Scotland wants to stay, let them become independent. Wales and Northern Ireland too. Booger the lot of them.

Yeah - Christ knows how much better off we'd be without the advances in culture, language and architecture introduced by the Normans.  

And to think that we've just been sitting here in our own little island all these years ignoring everyone and haven't at one point or another gone out and conquered about 99.9% of the known world (well 99.9% of those parts of the world where the only resistance is little brown people armed only with pieces of sharp fruit).  

Don't feed the troll...

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 9:40 am

Unless Cam ups his game...I think the June vote won't happen..

Won't want to go into it looking like a lightweight..


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Post by Lowlandbrit on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 10:00 am

The main problem Cameron has is that the existing deal is probably about as good as the UK can hope to get. The people at the top of the EU are incredibly keen on all the 'ever greater union' stuff, and aren't going to go for anything that makes it seem optional to others. That's most likely why the 'fundamental change to make it better for everyone' talk has largely disappeared, and why there's so much scrambling needed to secure what doesn't seem like very much.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 10:09 am

Think Cam went for too many of the wrong things - is curbing in work benefits to EU migrants really going to do much??

Surely people coming here NOT to work is the issue?!

As a result I think his 'deal' looks pretty weak and won't really alleviate Eurosceptic concerns.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 11:25 am

There are two new polls on the EU referendum today. While the YouGov and ComRes polls conducted after the draft renegotiation showed a sharp movement towards LEAVE, these two paint a far steadier picture (though given one is online and one was conducted by phone, their overall figures contrast with each other!). ICM’s last poll had shown LEAVE nudging ahead, today’s new online figures are back to REMAIN 43%, LEAVE 39% (tabs here). Ipsos MORI’s latest telephone figures are REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 36% – virtually unchanged from their previous poll (tabs here).

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

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Post by Azzy on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 11:32 am

I can't believe I'm saying this, but Tim Farron's comments on 5 Live yesterday turned me from leave to stay. Tim bl00dy Farron. Shoot me now.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 12:08 pm

what were his points?

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 12:15 pm

Azzy wrote:I can't believe I'm saying this, but Tim Farron's comments on 5 Live yesterday turned me from leave to stay. Tim bl00dy Farron. Shoot me now.

He's very good Farron.......Looks genuine and puts points across well...

Unfortunately he's been stiffed by Clegg and the rest of the Conservative helpers..

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Post by Azzy on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 12:35 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:what were his points?
From memory:

- Coming out of the single market means you have no control over it, and have to pay whatever prices it demands
- Norway is struggling due to this
- Security provided by single market is worth more than the on-paper benefits of leaving it
- Job losses, such as HSBC taking up to 1/3 of its jobs to Paris, would have a huge impact on the UK workforce, and that has not been factored into the financial benefits figures being shown by the 'leave' side
- Being on the outside of Europe isn't wise in these troubled times (ie, ISIS and Russia, we should stick together)

Add to that, Fat Dave's warning of migrants coming this side of the Channel, and that's enough for me to vote 'stay'.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 1:09 pm

Azzy wrote:Europe has been bad for Britain since Roman times. Setting up the European Union was a bad idea and I'd like England to leave, and if Scotland wants to stay, let them become independent. Wales and Northern Ireland too. Booger the lot of them.

How do you go from Leave to this !!...by listening to some guy on the radio....

No offence but ......Come on..


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Post by Azzy on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 1:53 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Azzy wrote:Europe has been bad for Britain since Roman times. Setting up the European Union was a bad idea and I'd like England to leave, and if Scotland wants to stay, let them become independent. Wales and Northern Ireland too. Booger the lot of them.

How do you go from Leave to this !!...by listening to some guy on the radio....

No offence but ......Come on..

My first post was sarcasm. I expected you to be first out of the trap but super beat you to it. And Tim Farron is hardly 'some guy', he's the leader of one of the main political parties in the UK. Or they were, any road.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 1:57 pm

Azzy wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Azzy wrote:Europe has been bad for Britain since Roman times. Setting up the European Union was a bad idea and I'd like England to leave, and if Scotland wants to stay, let them become independent. Wales and Northern Ireland too. Booger the lot of them.

How do you go from Leave to this !!...by listening to some guy on the radio....

No offence but ......Come on..

My first post was sarcasm. I expected you to be first out of the trap but super beat you to it. And Tim Farron is hardly 'some guy', he's the leader of one of the main political parties in the UK. Or they were, any road.

You've been fairly anti-Europe on here so.........If it was sarcasm glad you pointed it out..

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 3:34 pm

Azzy wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:what were his points?
From memory:

- Coming out of the single market means you have no control over it, and have to pay whatever prices it demands
- Norway is struggling due to this
- Security provided by single market is worth more than the on-paper benefits of leaving it
- Job losses, such as HSBC taking up to 1/3 of its jobs to Paris, would have a huge impact on the UK workforce, and that has not been factored into the financial benefits figures being shown by the 'leave' side
- Being on the outside of Europe isn't wise in these troubled times (ie, ISIS and Russia, we should stick together)

All of which are how I see it.

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Post by Azzy on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 4:08 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Azzy wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Azzy wrote:Europe has been bad for Britain since Roman times. Setting up the European Union was a bad idea and I'd like England to leave, and if Scotland wants to stay, let them become independent. Wales and Northern Ireland too. Booger the lot of them.

How do you go from Leave to this !!...by listening to some guy on the radio....

No offence but ......Come on..

My first post was sarcasm. I expected you to be first out of the trap but super beat you to it. And Tim Farron is hardly 'some guy', he's the leader of one of the main political parties in the UK. Or they were, any road.

You've been fairly anti-Europe on here so.........If it was sarcasm glad you pointed it out..
I'm anti-everything.

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Post by Duty281 on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 4:35 pm

One things that these re-negotiations will do is the end the myth spouted by the Remain side that our nation holds influence within the EU.

"Oh don't walk away because it's getting difficult, if we don't like it, we can change it," they chorus with reckless abandon.

Well...no. Our pathetic Prime Minister is asking for bugger-all. Asking for things that are of no real relevance. And he's struggling. The only interesting thing that could possibly result is if he walks away without a deal, because he has previously said he would campaign to Leave if such a scenario results.

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Post by Duty281 on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 4:38 pm

Azzy wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:what were his points?
From memory:

- Coming out of the single market means you have no control over it, and have to pay whatever prices it demands/ - Norway is struggling due to this

- Being on the outside of Europe isn't wise in these troubled times (ie, ISIS and Russia, we should stick together)

1) Other way round. The UK has a trade deficit with the European Union - they need us more than we need them. Norway may be struggling, but then Norway isn't the 5th largest economy in the world.

2) A good thing, then, that the UK are members of Nato and permanent members of the UN Security Council! Whereas being in the EU renders our border security to be wholly lax - something that the people of Paris tragically discovered.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 4:48 pm

Be fair Duty...You'd hate any deal he came back with..

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Post by Duty281 on Fri 19 Feb 2016, 4:52 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Be fair Duty...You'd hate any deal he came back with..

If he came back with our parliamentary sovereignty restored; the supremacy of our courts regained; control over our fishing waters returned; the freedom to trade enhanced; and control of our borders - I wouldn't hate that.

And if he, at least, tried to get those things, I'd respect him for that.

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