OWGR-August 2015

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Post by GPB on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 12:35 am

I think it is time for an update and new thread.  The OWGR Top 100 should all be invited to play the PGA Championship tomorrow.

Nice playing from Troy Merritt for winning the Quicken Loans to get an 11th invite to B-Stone.  Also Marc Warren got a 11th hour invite for his 4th place finish in Scotland.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat did not get an invite for winning the Paul Lawrie Match Play but is 14th in the Int'l Prez Cup standings.

This is what the top 100 should look like tomorrow morning

 
 
1Rory McIlroy12.485
2Jordan Spieth11.415
3Bubba Watson7.541
4Jason Day6.916
5Rickie Fowler6.674
6Jim Furyk6.578
7Dustin Johnson6.551
8Justin Rose6.422
9Henrik Stenson6.069
10Sergio Garcia5.614
11Adam Scott5.192
12Zach Johnson4.975
13Louis Oosthuizen4.960
14Jimmy Walker4.765
15Hideki Matsuyama4.298
16Matt Kuchar4.218
17J.B. Holmes4.170
18Patrick Reed4.009
19Martin Kaymer3.822
20Phil Mickelson3.745
21Billy Horschel3.725
22Chris Kirk3.685
23Brooks Koepka3.663
24Danny Willett3.563
25Bernd Wiesberger3.301
26Paul Casey3.194
27Bill Haas3.182
28Branden Grace3.162
29Brandt Snedeker3.105
30Marc Leishman3.104
31Kevin Na3.022
32Ryan Palmer2.970
33Ian Poulter2.945
34Kevin Kisner2.842
35Gary Woodland2.840
36Lee Westwood2.808
37Jamie Donaldson2.780
38Thongchai Jaidee2.771
39Ryan Moore2.662
40Charl Schwartzel2.569
41Victor Dubuisson2.567
42Francesco Molinari2.565
43Charley Hoffman2.563
44Brendon Todd2.550
45Hunter Mahan2.545
46Keegan Bradley2.514
47Webb Simpson2.495
48Shane Lowry2.477
49Marc Warren2.448
50Robert Streb2.431
51Russell Henley2.398
52Anirban Lahiri2.398
53Tommy Fleetwood2.395
54John Senden2.388
55Joost Luiten2.371
56Miguel A Jimenez2.360
57Andy Sullivan2.356
58Byeong Hun An2.338
59David Lingmerth2.294
60Graeme McDowell2.285
61Ben Martin2.281
62Luke Donald2.235
63Steven Bowditch2.206
64Matt Every2.132
65Alexander Levy2.130
66Danny Lee2.127
67Kiradech Aphibarnrat2.092
68George Coetzee2.033
69Cameron Tringale2.006
70Stephen Gallacher1.970
71Scott Piercy1.964
72Matt Jones1.918
73Alexander Noren1.902
74Richie Ramsay1.883
75Brian Harman1.876
76Russell Knox1.862
77Chris Wood1.818
78Pablo Larrazabal1.813
79Soren Kjeldsen1.782
80Tim Clark1.776
81Harris English1.776
82Daniel Berger1.768
83Justin Thomas1.766
84Rafael Cabrera Bello1.762
85James Morrison1.759
86David Howell1.747
87Jason Dufner1.738
88Eddie Pepperell1.725
89Shawn Stefani1.699
90George McNeill1.698
91Graham Delaet1.694
92Kevin Streelman1.673
93Jason Bohn1.670
94Ross Fisher1.669
95Tyrrell Hatton1.668
96Emiliano Grillo1.639
97Morgan Hoffmann1.627
98James Hahn1.623
99Troy Merritt1.618
100Hiroshi Iwata1.616
101Brendan Steele1.612
102Padraig Harrington1.612
103Cameron Smith1.602

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Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 1:08 am

clap clap clap mug

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Post by Bob_the_Job on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 9:55 am

Interesting - the gap between 1st and 2nd narrowing rapidly but still well separated from 3rd. Very bunched from 4th to 8th
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Post by raycastleunited on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 11:16 am

A lot of people on here have given Fowler stick for being all hype but I'm glad to see him sitting at no. 5 in the world.

Much more Sharapova than Kournikova

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Post by GPB on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 1:20 pm

Repost from the prior OWGR thread.

Assuming Rory does not play either B-Stone or PGA, Jordan needs to win B-Stone to get the #1 ranking, or earn a total of 66 OWGR points in the B-Stone and PGA to get the #1 ranking.

A win in either tournament will get him the #1 ranking.  There are only a couple ways he can become #1 by not winning either tournament before the FEX Playoffs.

Solo 2nd in B-Stone, Solo 5th (or better) in PGA
Solo 3rd in both the B-Stone and the PGA
Solo 17th or better in B-Stone and Solo 2nd in PGA

PD has tweeted that  the B-Stone is a OWGR Level 74.  (It was a level 76 with the #1 player in the field the last two years)

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Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 1:38 pm

Agree ray, Fowler looks a different player since his summer wins; imagine the focus of attention on Jordan Spieth as the next great young thing (American version) doesn't hurt either.

GPB, Any idea when the PGA announce their "special invitations" for Whistling Straits? Last year they seemed to go above the owgr 100th position, but no chat that they'll do that this year. As far as I can see Cameron Smith would be the first beneficiary at #103 (as 101 - Steele - and 102 - Harrington - are already exempt). Ogilvy, exempt, is at 104 then neither 105 nor 106, Siem and Ilonen, have done anything to warrant rewarding with a spot.

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Post by GPB on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 1:48 pm

I think the field will be announced today. At least 154 players will be announced.  A spot is reserved for the B-Stone and Barracuda winners.  Glancing through the Barracuda, there is only few players in that field that will also be at Whistling Straits.  (Streelman, Toms, Daly)

Obviously, most of the B-Stone field will be in the PGA, but there are few that are not .

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Post by GPB on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 2:26 pm

If the PGA has one exemption to give, they might consider giving it Patton Kizzire.  He just won the Web dot com tournament yesterday and is that tour's leading money winner.

He started the year unranked and has worked himself to 164th with only 18 tournaments in his resume.  He is trending towards a top 100 ranking.

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Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 2:31 pm

Unless they've w/d'd, there'll be some others GPB: Bohn, de Jonge, Ogilvy, probably Steele. EDIT! Bohn & de Jonge have opted out; why ever would they therefore have signed up for Reno in the first place?

Shocked that Laird is not playing; he's had decent results in Reno in the past; you'd think he'd fancy a last gasp at playing the PGA.

GPB,
Wouldn't you think Cameron Smith has better credentials? And on bigger stages??


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Post by hend085 on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 3:41 pm

ollie schniederjans might get one? i assume he hasnt qualified already?

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Post by GPB on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 6:06 pm

Cameron Smith?  Yep, he had a great US Open and average finish at Travelers.  But he has not played since.  If he wants to play, he really needs a new agent.  

I would have thought John Deere and Canadian Open would have loved to have him in the field.  Even Quicken Loans from last week.

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Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 6:14 pm

I think Cameron Smith has exhausted his sponsor exemption allowance, two top fives and a 15th. Not bad, and younger than either Kizzire or Olliejans.

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Post by GPB on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 7:34 pm

Cameron Smith has earned enough points for STM.  No limit on Sponsors invites.

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Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 8:02 pm

Ah ha! Still better credentials than anyone else and top of the owgr list of those outside the Top 100.

pga.com confirms final field to be announced today - wish they'd hurry up.

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Post by GPB on Mon 03 Aug 2015, 10:50 pm

Cameron Smith has been sick in Australia.  He was supposed to play European Masters.

http://www.iseekgolf.com/news/47320-smith-forced-miss-european-masters


not sure why it is taking so long to update the field for the PGA.

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Post by I'm never wrong on Tue 04 Aug 2015, 6:37 pm

GPB - Field has been finalised. CLICK HERE

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Post by kwinigolfer on Tue 04 Aug 2015, 6:46 pm

Lucky Thomas Bjorn!
Pleased to see Laird should get in as first alternate, hope Pettersson does also, much more deserving than Ilonen and Siem.

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Post by GPB on Tue 04 Aug 2015, 10:45 pm

Laird is almost guaranteed to get in as B-Stone winner is nearly guaranteed to be already qualified.

Nice to see Cameron Smith in the tournament.

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Post by McLaren on Wed 05 Aug 2015, 12:36 am

And McIlroy will pull out.
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Post by I'm never wrong on Wed 05 Aug 2015, 9:25 am

McLaren wrote:And McIlroy will pull out.
Can you evidence this Mac? Wink

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Post by McLaren on Wed 05 Aug 2015, 10:15 am

INW

Assuming he didn't over state the extent of his injury the consensus opinion of medical experts was 12 weeks minimum before he would be able to return to action. His injury occurred in the week leading up to the Scottish open (around July 6th), so he is well short of the expected 12 week recovery period. I would seriously doubt that he tees it up on the Straits.
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Post by GPB on Wed 05 Aug 2015, 2:14 pm

Gee I thought Mac might know that Rory practices the rhythm method of birth control. Shocked

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Post by GPB on Sat 08 Aug 2015, 1:39 am

Should they win:

Furyk gets to #3, as long as Bubba does not finish in a two way T2.

Dustin gets to #3, as long as Bubba does not finish solo 2nd.
Lowry could get into the top 20.
Bubba remains #3 if he finishes solo 2nd, unless Day wins.

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Post by GPB on Mon 10 Aug 2015, 12:30 am

Shane goes to #19!!

Rory is ahead of Jordan by 1.08 pts.

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Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 10 Aug 2015, 12:42 am

Love it! Thanks GPB,

As Roger Waters sang: "Do you remember Shane?" (Screw Dick Tracy . . . . . . )

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Post by GPB on Mon 10 Aug 2015, 2:45 am

On the Bubble for Prez Cup Standings 

9. A. Lahiri . . . 2.390
10. D. Lee . . . 2.359
====
11. Senden . . 2.347
12. Ben An  . . 2.346
13. Bowditch. .2.342 


Lee, Senden, An, and Bowditch are #57-60 in the OWGR.

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Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 10 Aug 2015, 3:12 am

I reckon Danny Lee is a racing cert. And Senden likely to get a sympathy vote as Captain's Choice. Can't see anyone outside that 13 making the team.
Ernie as another Vice Captain!

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Post by GPB on Mon 10 Aug 2015, 3:24 am

I would think Ben An would get any sympathy vote as a Korean citizen.

And Danny Lee as being born in Korea.

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Post by GPB on Mon 10 Aug 2015, 7:21 pm

#1 Scenarios for Jordan this week at the PGA.

1. Jordan wins and Rory is not 2nd alone.
2. Jordan is 2nd alone and Rory is not in the Top 6.
3. Jordan is tied 2nd with one other and Rory is not in the Top 13.
4. Jordan is tied 2nd with two others and Rory is not in the Top 33.
5. Jordan is 3rd alone and Rory misses the cut.

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Post by kwinigolfer on Sun 16 Aug 2015, 3:19 am

GPB,
You were certainly correct about my over-estimate of the points required to make the Play-Offs; it's almost as if the top guys (well, Spieth) have sucked the journeymen dry.
Reckon the over/under must be about 450 now. Donald on the edge, can't afford to slip any places on Sunday! Donaldson even more so.

Mixed bag in Greensboro, a few of the best ACC/SEC guys and almost everyone else has an ulterior motive, Play-Offs, keeping their card, Top 150, qualifying for web.com Finals, you name it! Not a great owgr haul, but should be a fascinating week.

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Post by GPB on Sun 16 Aug 2015, 6:24 pm

Donaldson obviously doesn't care about the Playoffs as he is not in the Wyndham Field.

But thanks the high money/FEX ratio in WGCs and Majors, he is safely inside the Top 125 of the money list and will retain his PGAtour card.

Donald is playing Wyndham

Here is an update on the Int'l Prez Cup standings had the tournament ended after 54 holes.

1JasonDay9.403
2AdamScott4.882
3LouisOosthuizen4.744
4HidekiMatsuyama4.296
5BrandenGrace3.851
6MarcLeishman3.025
7ThongchaiJaidee2.710
8AnirbanLahiri2.650
9CharlSchwartzel2.644
10DannyLee2.398
11Byeong HunAn2.329
12StevenBowditch2.321
13JohnSenden2.305
14MattJones2.214

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Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 17 Aug 2015, 10:25 pm

G'boro is a 40-pointer; wouldn't have guessed that at first glance, but overseas players have made a big impact in strength of field.
"Denmark" must be heavily subsidised at 24.

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Post by GPB on Sun 23 Aug 2015, 3:56 pm

Should they win 

Jason Gore rises to about 110th
Tiger rises to about 102nd
Blixt goes to about 66th
Scott Brown should be about 99th.

==========

Horsey goes to about 160th.
Kjeldson rises to about 55th.


Depending on how other finish!

==========

Yesterday in Switzerland, Nacho Elvira from Spain won his 3rd Challenge Tour event of the year and earned a promotion to the Eurotour.  He should be about 212th when the rankings come out tomorrow.

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Post by pedro on Sun 23 Aug 2015, 10:06 pm

GPB wrote:

Yesterday in Switzerland, Nacho Elvira from Spain won his 3rd Challenge Tour event of the year and earned a promotion to the Eurotour.  He should be about 212th when the rankings come out tomorrow.
Lowry's mouth is watering with the outlook to play alongside him....

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Post by GPB on Tue 25 Aug 2015, 5:14 pm

Spieth has to finish 14th or better to remain #1 next week.

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Post by GPB on Sat 29 Aug 2015, 12:16 am

After two weeks, Spieth has lost the #1 ranking....

However, Rory has to finish in the Top 10 next week to keep the #1 ranking (his divisor is increasing)

Thats right, Spieth can miss the cut, and Rory finish outside the top 10, and Spieth will reclaim the #1 spot.

Rory and Jordan are in a virtual tie for the Top spot right now, and unless one of them makes a big move in the next month, they could be trading places for a few months.

On Monday, their averages will be

Rory 12.36
Jordan 12.21

After they start D-Bank

Rory's avg will be at 11.86
Jordan's avg will be at 12.08

Rory will be approximately 10.5 gross pts behind Jordan.

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Post by GPB on Sun 30 Aug 2015, 7:49 pm

Jason Day most likely will be #1 a week from Tomorrow if he wins both Barclays and D-Bank.

Rory or Jordan would need to finish solo 2nd to keep Day from the #1 spot.

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Post by GPB on Sun 30 Aug 2015, 11:46 pm

Top 6 in the Rankings as of tomorrow

1Rory McIlroy12.36
2Jordan Spieth12.23
3Jason Day10.99
4Bubba Watson8.69
5Jim Furyk7.23
6Justin Rose7.22

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Post by super_realist on Mon 31 Aug 2015, 6:47 am

GPB, Given their respective good years, McIlroy and Spieth are going to have to have extraordinary 2016's to maintain their positions aren't they?

Anything less will result in 9C type bombing down the rankings wouldn't it?

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Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 31 Aug 2015, 10:36 am

super,
Rory has won and lost a similar number of points this year; which is not to say he doesn't need to get back on his horse and start collecting more. Hopefully he'll have a strong finish to his season to make up for lost time. Starting this week at TPC Bawston.

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Post by McLaren on Mon 31 Aug 2015, 3:12 pm

Whats the deal with Day getting to #1, what finishes do the players invloved need?
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Post by GPB on Mon 31 Aug 2015, 4:34 pm

All the projections below are assuming an OWGR rating of 74 for D-Bank.  The current rating is real close to 72/74 transistion.  Some of the projections will change if it is a OWGR 72 but not a great deal.

There are an enormous amount of #1 scenarios this week, here are some highlights

J-Day has to win DeutscheBank to become #1.  He can not pass Spieth with a Solo 2nd but he can pass Rory with a Solo 2nd.

If there is a Day-Rory-Spieth Trifecta then the OWGR top 3 will be in a virtual Tie:

Rory - 12.85
JDay - 12.74
Jordan - 12.65

If J-Day finishes Solo 2nd, Rory finishes solo 10th, and Spieth finishes 60th or worse

Rory - 12.087
Jordan - 12.084
J-Day - 11.967

Rory has to finish in the top 10 to have a chance at being #1 next week, and finish in the Top 20 to be in the Top 2 if J-Day finishes Solo 2nd.

============


Here are the Rory vs Spieth scenarios  

If Rory finishes solo 9th or solo 10th, Jordan needs to finish 59th or better to be ahead of him.

If Rory finishes solo 8th, Jordan needs to finish solo 49th or better to be ahead of him.

If Rory finishes solo 7th, Jordan needs to finish solo 27th or better to be ahead of him.

If Rory finishes solo 6th, Jordan needs to finish solo 19th or better to be ahead of him.

If Rory finishes solo 5th, Jordan needs to finish solo 12th or better to be ahead of him.

If Rory finishes solo 4th, Jordan needs to finish solo 6th or better to be ahead of him.

If Rory finishes in a Tie 3rd or better, Jordan needs to finish tied with him or better to be ahead of him.

Clear as Mud?


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Post by McLaren on Mon 31 Aug 2015, 5:04 pm

Thanks GPB that must have taken a fair bit of work.

Are we now in the Jason Day era?
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Post by super_realist on Mon 31 Aug 2015, 5:08 pm

Given we've got a top 3 established. Who is most likely to join as a 4th? Age wise, Fowler would fit in, but I don't think he's off the right standard.

Anyone else coming through looking like they have the minerals?

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Post by GPB on Mon 31 Aug 2015, 5:14 pm

super_realist wrote:Given we've got a top 3 established. Who is most likely to join as a 4th? Age wise, Fowler would fit in, but I don't think he's off the right standard.

Anyone else coming through looking like they have the minerals?


As I posted above, Bubba has pretty big lead on Furyk and Rose.

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Post by super_realist on Mon 31 Aug 2015, 7:58 pm

Something about Watson that I can't see long term and don't see the consistency there, plus he's too old to be considered a long term rivalry.

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Post by Davie on Mon 31 Aug 2015, 8:36 pm

Unlike others I don't see Day as a long term challenger either. Plenty of close encounters and a couple of VERY good wins recently .. but I just don't see it being a permanent thing. The vertigo/wrist/back/insert-some-other-mental-or-physical-issues-here seem to happen too often and though I don't like the "choker" label, he could be considered thus by some

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Post by super_realist on Mon 31 Aug 2015, 9:24 pm

Like Tennis, there seems to be a dearth of talent after the top 3.

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OWGR-August 2015 Empty Re: OWGR-August 2015

Post by incontinentia on Tue 01 Sep 2015, 8:51 am

McLaren wrote:Thanks GPB that must have taken a fair bit of work.  

Are we now in the Jason Day era?
I will remain a Day-denier for another couple of months, at least til we find out if he really has reached a new level, or whether his recent run of form isn't merely an August/September hot-streak, as displayed by Harrington, Stenson and McIlroy before him.

I hope Day does challenge for the #1 spot though, and the Majors into the future.
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OWGR-August 2015 Empty Re: OWGR-August 2015

Post by super_realist on Tue 01 Sep 2015, 9:47 am

Stenson? He was dominant for pretty much a whole year.

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OWGR-August 2015 Empty Re: OWGR-August 2015

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