OWGR-August 2015

I think it is time for an update and new thread.  The OWGR Top 100 should all be invited to play the PGA Championship tomorrow.

Nice playing from Troy Merritt for winning the Quicken Loans to get an 11th invite to B-Stone.  Also Marc Warren got a 11th hour invite for his 4th place finish in Scotland.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat did not get an invite for winning the Paul Lawrie Match Play but is 14th in the Int'l Prez Cup standings.

This is what the top 100 should look like tomorrow morning

 
 

1	Rory McIlroy	12.485
2	Jordan Spieth	11.415
3	Bubba Watson	7.541
4	Jason Day	6.916
5	Rickie Fowler	6.674
6	Jim Furyk	6.578
7	Dustin Johnson	6.551
8	Justin Rose	6.422
9	Henrik Stenson	6.069
10	Sergio Garcia	5.614
11	Adam Scott	5.192
12	Zach Johnson	4.975
13	Louis Oosthuizen	4.960
14	Jimmy Walker	4.765
15	Hideki Matsuyama	4.298
16	Matt Kuchar	4.218
17	J.B. Holmes	4.170
18	Patrick Reed	4.009
19	Martin Kaymer	3.822
20	Phil Mickelson	3.745
21	Billy Horschel	3.725
22	Chris Kirk	3.685
23	Brooks Koepka	3.663
24	Danny Willett	3.563
25	Bernd Wiesberger	3.301
26	Paul Casey	3.194
27	Bill Haas	3.182
28	Branden Grace	3.162
29	Brandt Snedeker	3.105
30	Marc Leishman	3.104
31	Kevin Na	3.022
32	Ryan Palmer	2.970
33	Ian Poulter	2.945
34	Kevin Kisner	2.842
35	Gary Woodland	2.840
36	Lee Westwood	2.808
37	Jamie Donaldson	2.780
38	Thongchai Jaidee	2.771
39	Ryan Moore	2.662
40	Charl Schwartzel	2.569
41	Victor Dubuisson	2.567
42	Francesco Molinari	2.565
43	Charley Hoffman	2.563
44	Brendon Todd	2.550
45	Hunter Mahan	2.545
46	Keegan Bradley	2.514
47	Webb Simpson	2.495
48	Shane Lowry	2.477
49	Marc Warren	2.448
50	Robert Streb	2.431
51	Russell Henley	2.398
52	Anirban Lahiri	2.398
53	Tommy Fleetwood	2.395
54	John Senden	2.388
55	Joost Luiten	2.371
56	Miguel A Jimenez	2.360
57	Andy Sullivan	2.356
58	Byeong Hun An	2.338
59	David Lingmerth	2.294
60	Graeme McDowell	2.285
61	Ben Martin	2.281
62	Luke Donald	2.235
63	Steven Bowditch	2.206
64	Matt Every	2.132
65	Alexander Levy	2.130
66	Danny Lee	2.127
67	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	2.092
68	George Coetzee	2.033
69	Cameron Tringale	2.006
70	Stephen Gallacher	1.970
71	Scott Piercy	1.964
72	Matt Jones	1.918
73	Alexander Noren	1.902
74	Richie Ramsay	1.883
75	Brian Harman	1.876
76	Russell Knox	1.862
77	Chris Wood	1.818
78	Pablo Larrazabal	1.813
79	Soren Kjeldsen	1.782
80	Tim Clark	1.776
81	Harris English	1.776
82	Daniel Berger	1.768
83	Justin Thomas	1.766
84	Rafael Cabrera Bello	1.762
85	James Morrison	1.759
86	David Howell	1.747
87	Jason Dufner	1.738
88	Eddie Pepperell	1.725
89	Shawn Stefani	1.699
90	George McNeill	1.698
91	Graham Delaet	1.694
92	Kevin Streelman	1.673
93	Jason Bohn	1.670
94	Ross Fisher	1.669
95	Tyrrell Hatton	1.668
96	Emiliano Grillo	1.639
97	Morgan Hoffmann	1.627
98	James Hahn	1.623
99	Troy Merritt	1.618
100	Hiroshi Iwata	1.616
101	Brendan Steele	1.612
102	Padraig Harrington	1.612
103	Cameron Smith	1.602

Interesting - the gap between 1st and 2nd narrowing rapidly but still well separated from 3rd. Very bunched from 4th to 8th

A lot of people on here have given Fowler stick for being all hype but I'm glad to see him sitting at no. 5 in the world.

Much more Sharapova than Kournikova

Repost from the prior OWGR thread.

Assuming Rory does not play either B-Stone or PGA, Jordan needs to win B-Stone to get the #1 ranking, or earn a total of 66 OWGR points in the B-Stone and PGA to get the #1 ranking.

A win in either tournament will get him the #1 ranking.  There are only a couple ways he can become #1 by not winning either tournament before the FEX Playoffs.

Solo 2nd in B-Stone, Solo 5th (or better) in PGA
Solo 3rd in both the B-Stone and the PGA
Solo 17th or better in B-Stone and Solo 2nd in PGA

PD has tweeted that  the B-Stone is a OWGR Level 74.  (It was a level 76 with the #1 player in the field the last two years)

Agree ray, Fowler looks a different player since his summer wins; imagine the focus of attention on Jordan Spieth as the next great young thing (American version) doesn't hurt either.

GPB, Any idea when the PGA announce their "special invitations" for Whistling Straits? Last year they seemed to go above the owgr 100th position, but no chat that they'll do that this year. As far as I can see Cameron Smith would be the first beneficiary at #103 (as 101 - Steele - and 102 - Harrington - are already exempt). Ogilvy, exempt, is at 104 then neither 105 nor 106, Siem and Ilonen, have done anything to warrant rewarding with a spot.

I think the field will be announced today. At least 154 players will be announced.  A spot is reserved for the B-Stone and Barracuda winners.  Glancing through the Barracuda, there is only few players in that field that will also be at Whistling Straits.  (Streelman, Toms, Daly)

Obviously, most of the B-Stone field will be in the PGA, but there are few that are not .

If the PGA has one exemption to give, they might consider giving it Patton Kizzire.  He just won the Web dot com tournament yesterday and is that tour's leading money winner.

He started the year unranked and has worked himself to 164th with only 18 tournaments in his resume.  He is trending towards a top 100 ranking.

Unless they've w/d'd, there'll be some others GPB: Bohn, de Jonge, Ogilvy, probably Steele. EDIT! Bohn & de Jonge have opted out; why ever would they therefore have signed up for Reno in the first place?

Shocked that Laird is not playing; he's had decent results in Reno in the past; you'd think he'd fancy a last gasp at playing the PGA.

GPB,
Wouldn't you think Cameron Smith has better credentials? And on bigger stages??

ollie schniederjans might get one? i assume he hasnt qualified already?

Cameron Smith?  Yep, he had a great US Open and average finish at Travelers.  But he has not played since.  If he wants to play, he really needs a new agent.  

I would have thought John Deere and Canadian Open would have loved to have him in the field.  Even Quicken Loans from last week.

I think Cameron Smith has exhausted his sponsor exemption allowance, two top fives and a 15th. Not bad, and younger than either Kizzire or Olliejans.

Cameron Smith has earned enough points for STM.  No limit on Sponsors invites.

Ah ha! Still better credentials than anyone else and top of the owgr list of those outside the Top 100.

pga.com confirms final field to be announced today - wish they'd hurry up.

Cameron Smith has been sick in Australia.  He was supposed to play European Masters.

http://www.iseekgolf.com/news/47320-smith-forced-miss-european-masters


not sure why it is taking so long to update the field for the PGA.

GPB - Field has been finalised. CLICK HERE

Lucky Thomas Bjorn!
Pleased to see Laird should get in as first alternate, hope Pettersson does also, much more deserving than Ilonen and Siem.

Laird is almost guaranteed to get in as B-Stone winner is nearly guaranteed to be already qualified.

Nice to see Cameron Smith in the tournament.

And McIlroy will pull out.

McLaren wrote:And McIlroy will pull out.

Can you evidence this Mac?

INW

Assuming he didn't over state the extent of his injury the consensus opinion of medical experts was 12 weeks minimum before he would be able to return to action. His injury occurred in the week leading up to the Scottish open (around July 6th), so he is well short of the expected 12 week recovery period. I would seriously doubt that he tees it up on the Straits.

Gee I thought Mac might know that Rory practices the rhythm method of birth control.

Should they win:

Furyk gets to #3, as long as Bubba does not finish in a two way T2.

Dustin gets to #3, as long as Bubba does not finish solo 2nd.
Lowry could get into the top 20.
Bubba remains #3 if he finishes solo 2nd, unless Day wins.

Shane goes to #19!!

Rory is ahead of Jordan by 1.08 pts.

Love it! Thanks GPB,

As Roger Waters sang: "Do you remember Shane?" (Screw Dick Tracy . . . . . . )

On the Bubble for Prez Cup Standings 

9. A. Lahiri . . . 2.390
10. D. Lee . . . 2.359
====
11. Senden . . 2.347
12. Ben An  . . 2.346
13. Bowditch. .2.342 


Lee, Senden, An, and Bowditch are #57-60 in the OWGR.

I reckon Danny Lee is a racing cert. And Senden likely to get a sympathy vote as Captain's Choice. Can't see anyone outside that 13 making the team.
Ernie as another Vice Captain!

I would think Ben An would get any sympathy vote as a Korean citizen.

And Danny Lee as being born in Korea.

#1 Scenarios for Jordan this week at the PGA.

1. Jordan wins and Rory is not 2nd alone.
2. Jordan is 2nd alone and Rory is not in the Top 6.
3. Jordan is tied 2nd with one other and Rory is not in the Top 13.
4. Jordan is tied 2nd with two others and Rory is not in the Top 33.
5. Jordan is 3rd alone and Rory misses the cut.

GPB,
You were certainly correct about my over-estimate of the points required to make the Play-Offs; it's almost as if the top guys (well, Spieth) have sucked the journeymen dry.
Reckon the over/under must be about 450 now. Donald on the edge, can't afford to slip any places on Sunday! Donaldson even more so.

Mixed bag in Greensboro, a few of the best ACC/SEC guys and almost everyone else has an ulterior motive, Play-Offs, keeping their card, Top 150, qualifying for web.com Finals, you name it! Not a great owgr haul, but should be a fascinating week.

Donaldson obviously doesn't care about the Playoffs as he is not in the Wyndham Field.

But thanks the high money/FEX ratio in WGCs and Majors, he is safely inside the Top 125 of the money list and will retain his PGAtour card.

Donald is playing Wyndham

Here is an update on the Int'l Prez Cup standings had the tournament ended after 54 holes.

1	Jason	Day	9.403
2	Adam	Scott	4.882
3	Louis	Oosthuizen	4.744
4	Hideki	Matsuyama	4.296
5	Branden	Grace	3.851
6	Marc	Leishman	3.025
7	Thongchai	Jaidee	2.710
8	Anirban	Lahiri	2.650
9	Charl	Schwartzel	2.644
10	Danny	Lee	2.398
11	Byeong Hun	An	2.329
12	Steven	Bowditch	2.321
13	John	Senden	2.305
14	Matt	Jones	2.214

G'boro is a 40-pointer; wouldn't have guessed that at first glance, but overseas players have made a big impact in strength of field.
"Denmark" must be heavily subsidised at 24.

Should they win 

Jason Gore rises to about 110th
Tiger rises to about 102nd
Blixt goes to about 66th
Scott Brown should be about 99th.

==========

Horsey goes to about 160th.
Kjeldson rises to about 55th.


Depending on how other finish!

==========

Yesterday in Switzerland, Nacho Elvira from Spain won his 3rd Challenge Tour event of the year and earned a promotion to the Eurotour.  He should be about 212th when the rankings come out tomorrow.

GPB wrote:

Yesterday in Switzerland, Nacho Elvira from Spain won his 3rd Challenge Tour event of the year and earned a promotion to the Eurotour.  He should be about 212th when the rankings come out tomorrow.

Lowry's mouth is watering with the outlook to play alongside him....

Spieth has to finish 14th or better to remain #1 next week.

After two weeks, Spieth has lost the #1 ranking....

However, Rory has to finish in the Top 10 next week to keep the #1 ranking (his divisor is increasing)

Thats right, Spieth can miss the cut, and Rory finish outside the top 10, and Spieth will reclaim the #1 spot.

Rory and Jordan are in a virtual tie for the Top spot right now, and unless one of them makes a big move in the next month, they could be trading places for a few months.

On Monday, their averages will be

Rory 12.36
Jordan 12.21

After they start D-Bank

Rory's avg will be at 11.86
Jordan's avg will be at 12.08

Rory will be approximately 10.5 gross pts behind Jordan.

Jason Day most likely will be #1 a week from Tomorrow if he wins both Barclays and D-Bank.

Rory or Jordan would need to finish solo 2nd to keep Day from the #1 spot.

Top 6 in the Rankings as of tomorrow

1	Rory McIlroy	12.36
2	Jordan Spieth	12.23
3	Jason Day	10.99
4	Bubba Watson	8.69
5	Jim Furyk	7.23
6	Justin Rose	7.22

GPB, Given their respective good years, McIlroy and Spieth are going to have to have extraordinary 2016's to maintain their positions aren't they?

Anything less will result in 9C type bombing down the rankings wouldn't it?

super,
Rory has won and lost a similar number of points this year; which is not to say he doesn't need to get back on his horse and start collecting more. Hopefully he'll have a strong finish to his season to make up for lost time. Starting this week at TPC Bawston.

Whats the deal with Day getting to #1, what finishes do the players invloved need?

All the projections below are assuming an OWGR rating of 74 for D-Bank.  The current rating is real close to 72/74 transistion.  Some of the projections will change if it is a OWGR 72 but not a great deal.

There are an enormous amount of #1 scenarios this week, here are some highlights

J-Day has to win DeutscheBank to become #1.  He can not pass Spieth with a Solo 2nd but he can pass Rory with a Solo 2nd.

If there is a Day-Rory-Spieth Trifecta then the OWGR top 3 will be in a virtual Tie:

Rory - 12.85
JDay - 12.74
Jordan - 12.65

If J-Day finishes Solo 2nd, Rory finishes solo 10th, and Spieth finishes 60th or worse

Rory - 12.087
Jordan - 12.084
J-Day - 11.967

Rory has to finish in the top 10 to have a chance at being #1 next week, and finish in the Top 20 to be in the Top 2 if J-Day finishes Solo 2nd.

============


Here are the Rory vs Spieth scenarios  

If Rory finishes solo 9th or solo 10th, Jordan needs to finish 59th or better to be ahead of him.

If Rory finishes solo 8th, Jordan needs to finish solo 49th or better to be ahead of him.

If Rory finishes solo 7th, Jordan needs to finish solo 27th or better to be ahead of him.

If Rory finishes solo 6th, Jordan needs to finish solo 19th or better to be ahead of him.

If Rory finishes solo 5th, Jordan needs to finish solo 12th or better to be ahead of him.

If Rory finishes solo 4th, Jordan needs to finish solo 6th or better to be ahead of him.

If Rory finishes in a Tie 3rd or better, Jordan needs to finish tied with him or better to be ahead of him.

Clear as Mud?

Thanks GPB that must have taken a fair bit of work.

Are we now in the Jason Day era?

Given we've got a top 3 established. Who is most likely to join as a 4th? Age wise, Fowler would fit in, but I don't think he's off the right standard.

Anyone else coming through looking like they have the minerals?

super_realist wrote:Given we've got a top 3 established. Who is most likely to join as a 4th? Age wise, Fowler would fit in, but I don't think he's off the right standard.

Anyone else coming through looking like they have the minerals?

As I posted above, Bubba has pretty big lead on Furyk and Rose.

Something about Watson that I can't see long term and don't see the consistency there, plus he's too old to be considered a long term rivalry.

Unlike others I don't see Day as a long term challenger either. Plenty of close encounters and a couple of VERY good wins recently .. but I just don't see it being a permanent thing. The vertigo/wrist/back/insert-some-other-mental-or-physical-issues-here seem to happen too often and though I don't like the "choker" label, he could be considered thus by some

Like Tennis, there seems to be a dearth of talent after the top 3.

McLaren wrote:Thanks GPB that must have taken a fair bit of work.  

Are we now in the Jason Day era?

I will remain a Day-denier for another couple of months, at least til we find out if he really has reached a new level, or whether his recent run of form isn't merely an August/September hot-streak, as displayed by Harrington, Stenson and McIlroy before him.

I hope Day does challenge for the #1 spot though, and the Majors into the future.

Stenson? He was dominant for pretty much a whole year.