SA - England Fourth Test

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SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Tue 19 Jan 2016, 12:14 pm

First topic message reminder :

Time to set this one up ?

Lots of SA selection discussions tacked on to the 3rd Test thread...


For England this one presents a chance to take the next step up , I think. In the Ashes series they seemed happy to rest on their laurels and weren't very competitive at The Oval : I am fairly sure Bayliss won't miss the chance to remind them that good teams want to keep winning even when the principal aim has been achieved.

Selection seems to be essentially just a case of who replaces Finn. Woakes or Footitt , I'd imagine (unless Jordan has been doing amazing things in the nets). I know who Olly will pick ...

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 1:53 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:
alfie wrote:So tea finds England still trailing by over 150...

Main difference between the two sides is that SA had three centurions - and three substantial partnerships : England none of the former , and only one of the latter so far.

Wonder how close Moeen and Broad can get England ?  SA now missing Abbott from the attack and the other two quicks have done a lot of work ; so they might get a fair bit of spin after tea.  Hard to see a map that gets them back in contention ; but the closer they can get to the SA score the better , as it at least gives SA more to think about...

Is that a hint alfie?

Very Happy

I'm sure you'll have one for us at stumps , Craig. Hopefully by then the path may be a little more apparent...

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 1:59 pm

msp83 wrote:If Broad gets going for an hour or so, England should get close to 400 even from this situation. They need to limit the first innings under 60-70 to stay alive in the game. If they can bring it around that level or do better, you can always expect a collapse from this South Africa batting lineup though now they do have 5 proper batsmen, a good wicketkeeper batsman in de Kock and then Duminy.......

If Broad goes nuts and smashes the bowling around they might well get close ...but I'm not sure that's altogether likely. Or at least , not likely to extend to "an hour or so"

SA may indeed get anxious if their lead gets trimmed down substantially - especially if they should lose a couple of early wickets....memories of Johannesburg ...

But that's getting ahead of ourselves.

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by CaledonianCraig on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:00 pm

Like you alfie I'd need to be Da Vinci to invent one that gives England a fighting chance at the moment and the draw may have already slipped through their fingers. They need to bat out the rest of today - if they do that then things look rosier but that is a massive ask.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:02 pm

First ball after tea...Bad Cricket all Round !

Rotten full toss...batsman hits it straight to cover ...catch dropped

Enough to give all park cricketers a feeling of smugness Smile

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by CaledonianCraig on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:06 pm

Broad caught on the boundary for 5 with Rabada taking his 7th wicket. England 320 for 9 and batting out the rest of the day now goes out of the equation. It is now all about if Ali can get his 50.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:06 pm

Seven for Rabada ! No Broad magic today...

End is nigh for England.

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:12 pm

Burnley Lara hits a boundary through cover... Probably fancies the bowling of Duminy rather more than Rabada Smile

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by CaledonianCraig on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:13 pm

alfie wrote:Burnley Lara hits a boundary through cover... Probably fancies the bowling of Duminy rather more than Rabada Smile

And next ball is almost clean bowled slog sweeping.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by CaledonianCraig on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:14 pm

Ali tantalisingly on 48 not out.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:16 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:
alfie wrote:Burnley Lara hits a boundary through cover... Probably fancies the bowling of Duminy rather more than Rabada Smile

And next ball is almost clean bowled slog sweeping.

That's the trouble with tail enders : they hit one good shot and ambitions go to their heads Very Happy

Fifty now for Moeen clap

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by CaledonianCraig on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:17 pm

Ali blazes a four to reach his 50. Much-needed knock this.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by Good Golly I'm Olly on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:19 pm

MOEEN
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by guildfordbat on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:22 pm

Olly wrote:MOEEN

Your other man Woakes is going to have to go a bit to live up to your billing. Very Happy

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by Good Golly I'm Olly on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:23 pm

guildfordbat wrote:
Olly wrote:MOEEN

Your other man Woakes is going to have to go a bit to live up to your billing. Very Happy

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by CaledonianCraig on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:28 pm

Ali caught in the deep for a decent knock and England all out for 342. South Africa take a lead of 133 into the second innings.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:28 pm

SA lead by 133 as Moeen holes out off Morkel...

Think they made about 70 over par , and England have fallen 60 under ...really ought to be a decisive advantage.

How much rain is coming ?

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by CaledonianCraig on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:34 pm

Well as things stand now I'd say the likeliest results are South Africa win 60%, draw 39%, England win 1%
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by CaledonianCraig on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:51 pm

Anderson strikes early and Elgar exits. South Africa effectively 138 for 1.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by Good Golly I'm Olly on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:52 pm

Bairstow did a catch
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by CaledonianCraig on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:53 pm

Olly wrote:Bairstow did a catch

Equalled a record in the last test for catches but whose counting? Whistle Wink
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by guildfordbat on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:55 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:Well as things stand now I'd say the likeliest results are South Africa win 60%, draw 39%, England win 1%

There are suggestions that Abbott could miss the rest of this Test. That doesn't even things up but it must be a big concern to AB and South Africa.

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by CaledonianCraig on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:57 pm

guildfordbat wrote:
CaledonianCraig wrote:Well as things stand now I'd say the likeliest results are South Africa win 60%, draw 39%, England win 1%

There are suggestions that Abbott could miss the rest of this Test. That doesn't even things up but it must be a big concern to AB and South Africa.

That is true. If he isn't to bowl again then it may alter how long he decides to bat on for in order to give the likes of Rabada the maximum recovery time.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by Good Golly I'm Olly on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 2:59 pm

STOP DROPPING AMLA YOU IDIOTS
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by CaledonianCraig on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 3:33 pm

South Africa effectively 166 for 1. I'd say they would look to bat until an hour after tea tomorrow with a lead of 400 before declaring. Get a small session in and get a couple or three wickets and set them up to bowl England out on the final day.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by CaledonianCraig on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 3:53 pm

With South Africa effectively 175 for 1 and bad light has stopped play probably for the day.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by VTR on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 5:23 pm

We are going to lose I still reckon, I doubt England can be bothered to block out for 4 sessions

Good performance from SA anyway, there's potential there with some of those newer players

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by msp83 on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 6:23 pm

South Africa do look a much better side now don't they? Had they been on the money with the selections at the outset, perhaps....... Rabada should have played that first test, and most certainly Quinton de Kock, and without a doubt Stephen Cook. When all are fit, then Steyn for Abbott, Philander for Duminy/Piedt depending on conditions. That will be a pretty decent side....... And with Morris, Viljoen, Abbot, Harmer they will have decent bench strength in the bowling department. Although he was total rubbish in spinning conditions, Dane Vilas can stand in for QDK for a test or 2 in non-spinning conditions. Hopefully Faf du Plessis will rediscover himself and get it all back together, and hopefully the rubbish selectors can find a decent batsman or 2 to back things up....... From what I've followed in limited overs, must say not too sure about Rossouw.

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by Hammersmith harrier on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 6:50 pm

I don't think he would have made any difference whatsoever, they have performed well in this game under no pressure but wilted in the games that did matter and you cannot underestimate how much help they've received from England's poor fielding.

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by kingraf on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 8:59 pm

Overall a good day. Obviously. Morkel is probably gonna need a superlative performance in the fourth innings to justify staying in the squad ahead of Rabada when we face NZ. But I suspect that's the only bowling spot up for debate. Unless Piedt gets dropped and we roll forward with four seamers?

As for the batters we need a #5. Personally I feel it's quite obvious that the way forward is to ask Quinny to drop the gloves. He's the jewel in our batting line up in the future and it makes no sense to ask him to keep. It's just goingto going to creak him before his time. Quinny drops the gloves and bats at five is the obvious way forward. For NZ the XI would probably be
Cook
Elgar
Amla
ABDV
JPD/Faf
Bavuma
QdK
Philander
Rabada
Steyn
Morkel

Unless the wickets are very dry (we've never had August Tests before. I don't actually know how they'll play).


As for England of course this is a dead rubber but given the fact that their scores on pitches which weren't pancake flat were all in the 320 range, and in the Ashes I think they scored about 280, I think this is their level. Hales can't open. The Kookaburra isn't even the moving ball an he's been done ragged by it Riaz and Amir are gonna tear him apart with a Duke. No one is gonna convince me that Nick Compton is a viable option at #3. He doesn't score runs. That's literally defeating the point of being there. I'm a huge Taylor fan but he hasn't actually done all that much to impress here after his first inning. Stokes scored a pretty sharp double century on a wicket which emerged was less a road and more one of those salt flats where land speed records are broken, but that aside he's only looked like a genuine #6 once this series.

Overall, I was hoping for a series draw tbh, once Steyn and Philander were confirmed out but 2-1 isn't the worst result in the world when so many questions were answered. Onwards and upwards
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 9:01 pm

Didn't stay up for the SA 2nd innings , but I see they have got through the evening just one down (a drop of Amla ? Was it a hard chance ?) so are in a strong position.
Slightly bemused by all the " will declare 400 ahead , four sessions to bowl England out " talk : I'm sure they'd like that ; but England's bowlers could have something to say ! If they can find some inspiration - and hopefully friendly conditions - tomorrow , may they not aspire to knock SA over under 200 and set up a chase that would at least give them a possible target ? Still would be long odds against on a deteriorating pitch ; but might make for a more interesting finish.

I certainly hope England don't go into the last two days waiting for a declaration and thinking only of survival. And frankly I'd be surprised if they do ; though if they don't have some serious success early on no doubt heads might start to drop.

SA very strongly favoured to win from here. But I think an England win is not (yet) out of the question - just very unlikely. As is the draw...

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by CaledonianCraig on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 9:12 pm

Well Alfie they do only need just over 200 more to get that 400 lead with 9 wickets remaining so to me it looks a likely scenario. Sure there is invariable bounce in the pitch but even England's tail hung around which says it is no minefield yet.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by Strings Philander on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 9:30 pm

Agree with Alfie.

Though I think South Africa will indeed win - who knows; if we can get Amla and ABDV out early doors, then you're looking to the rest who have struggled to post anything higher than 20's a piece in the series (if you exclude the salt flat that kingraf referred to) - with SA posting 26 single figure scores so far in the series. All it takes is another decent spell from someone from there and it's game on surely.

On an aside - how good and how important could Rabada go on to be for South Africa? 20 years old. Don't want to jump the gun, but he's got some potential!

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by CaledonianCraig on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 9:39 pm

There is Stephen Cook to remove as well as De Kock. Get De Kock out (whoops administration look away) and then you may be in business.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by kingraf on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 9:50 pm

The Amla drop was finger tips stuff. I'm sure commentators will say nonsense about how if you get a hand onto it you should catch it, but that wasnt in a million years gonna be held.

The lead is important, as it is, 180 would be a tricky target so even if England rolled us for, say 150 it would still be 280 which would require a record chase at the venue (as an aside that wouldn't be the worst thing since the current record was born in the Leather Jacket Test).
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by guildfordbat on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 11:29 pm

Probably the only thing we know for certain about this series is that you can't make hard and fast predictions. With all the different ups and downs that have occurred, just so tricky to call. Who can say there won't be one more?

Right, having got my excuses in early, I'm inclined to go with Craig on the likely 400 target. Even with a questionable surface deteriorating further, England are going to have to bowl extremely well (and catch competently Wink ) to take the remaining 9 wickets by tea tomorrow. If they don't, South Africa will likely be pushing towards a 400 run lead by then.

I reckon AB will settle for having around an hour tomorrow and all of day 5 to try and dismiss England a second time. If there weren't doubts over Abbott's fitness, I suspect AB would be keen for his batters to ideally give it some welly after lunch and look for an earlier declaration. However, it appears he's going to have to manage his bowlers carefully on the last day; either nurse maiding Abbott or coping without him altogether. That can only add to the uncertainty I've rambled on about above.

With very little confidence, I'll go from here for the draw. Not convinced South Africa will have the bowling strength in depth, particularly with Abbott's issues and Rabada having to be a spearhead cum workhorse. It will be near vital though for Cook and Hales to see us safely to stumps tomorrow evening and probably for one of them to play a big role the next day. Good opportunity for Hales to prove many wrong or at least make them think again.

Add to that a bit of rain and/or bad light and we could still get that 2-0 series win. Smile


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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Sun 24 Jan 2016, 11:41 pm

So basically praying for rain , eh , guildford ? Smile

I agree the Abbott problem will likely delay any declaration - if SA indeed are in a position to make one. If he is unable to bowl I do think it renders an otherwise unlikely run chase a lot more conceivable - and in an odd way means that England are as likely to get 300 as 200 ... since if they are able to tire the two remaining pace bowlers out a long chase may actually get easier as it proceeds...

Of course a lot depends on how the pitch develops. But I think your first paragraph summed up the possibilities rather well...

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Mon 25 Jan 2016, 8:27 am

Lively start this morning Smile

Anderson on fire ...Cooked Stephen's goose and trapped AB for a pair...


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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Mon 25 Jan 2016, 8:31 am

Incidentally a very good debut for Cook ...may have gone quickly this morning , but just surviving in tricky conditions last night was a handy contribution to add to his first innings century clap

Batting not looking easy right now. Anderson getting swing at a good pace ; and Amla struggling a bit with the injury to his thumb. Some pressure on Duminy , I should think.

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by VTR on Mon 25 Jan 2016, 8:40 am

alfie wrote:Lively start this morning Smile

Anderson on fire ...Cooked Stephen's goose and trapped AB for a pair...


Indeed - might not augur well for England though. SA can still easily get a 250 lead and won't be panicking too much about that being 300+, which is going to be very hard for England to chase on what is clearly a good pitch for bowling


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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by kingraf on Mon 25 Jan 2016, 8:44 am

200 lead nearly up.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Mon 25 Jan 2016, 8:52 am

Moeen introduced quite early today. Apparently getting some turn last night...would be handy if he could chip in with a wicket or two here.
Duminy seems to want to get after him so this could be interesting. Suppose Anderson will go for a couple more and then Broad will have a go ...and England really need to grab more wickets quickly to keep SA under pressure...lead now 199

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by kingraf on Mon 25 Jan 2016, 8:56 am

I said last night that the lead was important because you can't yet trust this batting team to not roll over. As is 200 on that wicket is already very challenging. 250 is probably out of reach.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Mon 25 Jan 2016, 9:01 am

VTR wrote:
alfie wrote:Lively start this morning Smile

Anderson on fire ...Cooked Stephen's goose and trapped AB for a pair...


Indeed - might not augur well for England though. SA can still easily get a 250 lead and won't be panicking too much about that being 300+, which is going to be very hard for England to chase on what is clearly a good pitch for bowling


Well yes ...any target will be difficult , certainly. But from an England perspective they'd surely rather have a feasible run chase than just the prospect of having to block out four sessions or so : I don't think most of them are temperamentally suited to that sort of game.
Long odds either way ; but more fun for the spectators if the fourth innings is a contest for a result rather than a holding operation.

Surprised to see Stokes on before Broad after Anderson is rested ?

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Mon 25 Jan 2016, 9:11 am

Duminy doing a good job to steady things this morning after those early wickets. He and Amla have added a useful thirty and he hasn't allowed Moeen to settle.

On the other hand the pitch hasn't produced any tricks yet.

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by VTR on Mon 25 Jan 2016, 9:19 am

These two got through the tricky period and the runs are coming now.

Its looking more and more like a 4th innings blockathon required, but as alfie says, this England team is not of that mindset unless Cook and Compton can stay for an extended period. And to be honest, I would rather watch paint dry than those two blocking in tandem for any period of time!

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by kingraf on Mon 25 Jan 2016, 9:32 am

Its rather strange watching your team when they are in a winning position but are coming off the back of some crushing defeats. Logic dictated that we'd probably see off Jimmy's spell and then proceed to really get into the game. But in recent history we'd been rolled so often and so easily that you begin to think its happening again.
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by Strings Philander on Mon 25 Jan 2016, 10:30 am

Is there a school of thought that says this is a dead rubber - there will be a target - send Stokes and Hales out to open and see how far they can get towards it in ODI mode?

Would be almost certainly fruitless - but would make for an entertaining few overs and another step in the ongoing "reconnection with the public" exercise?

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by kingraf on Mon 25 Jan 2016, 10:34 am

Strings Philander wrote:Is there a school of thought that says this is a dead rubber - there will be a target - send Stokes and Hales out to open and see how far they can get towards it in ODI mode?

Would be almost certainly fruitless - but would make for an entertaining few overs and another step in the ongoing "reconnection with the public" exercise?

Could be interesting. I've never seen a team Frak around just because its a dead rubber though. Would certainly help us with Stokes. Need as fresh a ball as possible bowling to him
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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by alfie on Mon 25 Jan 2016, 10:38 am

Good session of Test Cricket. Some good bowling especially from Anderson and Stokes ; but Amla has been able to bat through - that partnership with Duminy was an important steadier for SA when a collapse might have been on the cards.
England did well to restrict runs and take three wickets : but I think they needed five.

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Re: SA - England Fourth Test

Post by dummy_half on Mon 25 Jan 2016, 10:42 am

Strings

Don't think any target SA set us will require ODI-style batting. Likely to be about 375-400 in just short of 4 sessions unless we get them all out at some point this afternoon (so 325-350 in 140 overs). Either way, the run rate would be manageable with fairly normal batting - the difficulty is batting for 120 overs on a day 4 and day 5 pitch.

Interesting conundrum for SA though, with Abbot carrying an injury and only 2 other front line seamers. Probably means that if they get t0 a position to declare they'll bat a bit longer than would otherwise have been the case, so as to keep Rabada and Morkel's workload lower.

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