The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll)

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Will you vote Leave or Remain?

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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Thu 25 Feb 2016, 8:02 pm

First topic message reminder :

Now it is official (and some guy with a green admin name has ruined the other thread) I shall put this here for you to discuss the referendum.


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Post by TopHat24/7 on Wed 16 Mar 2016, 1:42 pm

Rowley wrote:The actual figure is £35k Dolphin, which will make the problems in certain industries be felt even more severely.

really does seem a shocking and ignorant policy. hate protectionism.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Wed 16 Mar 2016, 1:43 pm

McLaren wrote:I will be voting to stay in the EU based on my disdain for the people of the UK.  The general public is becoming more mean spirited and anti-humanist, and the likes of the torries can't help but give us the unequal society we asked for.

To counter this we need the EU to force us to keep things like workers rights, human rights, measures to tackle climate change and all the other wonderful things only more a progressive and social justice orientated mindset can give us.

I hope the UK looses almost all its ability to govern itself  and that we are forced into the "horrors" of what the EU wants to give us.

what a load of claptrap

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Post by McLaren on Wed 16 Mar 2016, 5:53 pm

TopHat

A fine deconstruction of the argument there. Tumbleweed
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Post by TopHat24/7 on Wed 16 Mar 2016, 5:56 pm

Because the EU was instrumental in giving us workers rights, was it?
And human rights? EU has not benefitted us whatsoever beyond the strong system we had in place prior to their meddling.
Climate change is a world issue tackled at a world level.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 23 Mar 2016, 1:03 pm

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

After the latest ICM poll put Leave ahead by two points, the two sides average out at 50-50 for the last six polls undertaken.

I'm pleasantly surprised Leave has eradicated/closed in on the initial deficit so quickly. I was originally expecting Remain to hold a strong lead, and for it to only get close in the polling in the final 2-3 weeks.

The Leave campaign has, thus far, been far superior to the Remain campaign - the former has achieved excellent grassroots support, worked well on social media, and has found a pleasing wealth of support across the political spectrum; the latter has been embarrassingly complacent, leaning heavily on the 'status quo' argument, and is already relying on some fairly desperate measures.

Can only see this referendum going one way now.

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Post by No 7&1/2 on Wed 23 Mar 2016, 1:31 pm

Stay it is then.

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Post by Coxy001 on Wed 23 Mar 2016, 2:05 pm

Duty

I'll say it again - a number of people are yet to decide/a % those saying they would vote leave who when it comes to crunch time will take the safe option. And not even some crazed idiot could make the case for leaving being the safe option.

I would be totally amazed if the leave vote won. Lest we not forget that the PM, among several other influential ministers and public figures, have yet to wade in.

And the leave campaign has been an embarassing one for one simple reason: You cannot simply pretend to have a crystal ball and say the grass will be greener on the other side. Such things as "We would be able to work out a trade deal to the single market" is a laugably idiotic sweeping statement. Ever thought that the EU may try and ram tarriffs on the financial sector so far up our arse that the whole city simply goes "fu4k it, we'll relocate to Berlin"? What happens then with a sector that contributes 17% towards the countries wealth simply buggers off because those companies would be more competitive being based in the EU?

Leave voters are living in a dreamland. But hey, keep shouting "we want our country back" and fail to give any quantative reasoning that doesn't involve make believe "but we'll be better off" bollox.

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Post by Pr4wn on Wed 23 Mar 2016, 2:12 pm

Don't feed the troll, Coxy. He's making these posts in the hope he'll get a reaction just like yours.

You'll notice that nearly everyone else has stopped responding to him.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 23 Mar 2016, 2:20 pm

Pr4wn wrote:Don't feed the troll, Coxy. He's making these posts in the hope he'll get a reaction just like yours.

You'll notice that nearly everyone else has stopped responding to him.

5) Replies should only address the points of a post. Do not make personal attacks on posters whose points you disagree with. Debate the point not the poster.

Tut, tut, moderator. Wasn't it you talking, a couple of months ago, about how you wanted this section to generate more debate? Is this really the way forward - oh I disagree, you must be a troll etc.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 23 Mar 2016, 2:36 pm

Coxy001 wrote:Duty

I'll say it again - a number of people are yet to decide/a % those saying they would vote leave who when it comes to crunch time will take the safe option. And not even some crazed idiot could make the case for leaving being the safe option.

I would be totally amazed if the leave vote won. Lest we not forget that the PM, among several other influential ministers and public figures, have yet to wade in.

And the leave campaign has been an embarassing one for one simple reason: You cannot simply pretend to have a crystal ball and say the grass will be greener on the other side. Such things as "We would be able to work out a trade deal to the single market" is a laugably idiotic sweeping statement. Ever thought that the EU may try and ram tarriffs on the financial sector so far up our arse that the whole city simply goes "fu4k it, we'll relocate to Berlin"? What happens then with a sector that contributes 17% towards the countries wealth simply buggers off because those companies would be more competitive being based in the EU?

Leave voters are living in a dreamland. But hey, keep shouting "we want our country back" and fail to give any quantative reasoning that doesn't involve make believe "but we'll be better off" bollox.

1) I don't think even a crazed idiot could make the case for staying to be the safe option. The EU, even if we disregard the UK referendum, is sinking into ever-greater turmoil and uncertainty than at any point in its history.

2) I was initially going to be totally amazed if Leave won, as well, but I have had to change my mind in light of how the various campaigns have worked out in the last few months. I also thought that Remain would be starting with a massive advantage, around 70-30/75-25, but they didn't.

3) Do you have a crystal ball about the future of the EU, to say that the grass is greener? The Eurozone? TTIP? Schengen?

I don't have a crystal ball, but I'm perfectly capable of weighing up the advantages and disadvantages, before coming to a conclusion.

And yes, I have thought that the EU may try to ram us with tariffs, but then I thought about that pesky trade deficit we have, and concluded that it wouldn't be the likely outcome.

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Post by Hero on Wed 23 Mar 2016, 2:40 pm

I'm firmly in the stay camp, but I have to agree with you Duty that the leave campaign has been far better so far in its spin whilst the stay campaign is focusing on the negatives of the other.

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Post by aja424 on Wed 23 Mar 2016, 3:38 pm

Will be voting out. I love Europe but being in the EU means having even more politicians giving us silly little unnecessary new laws.

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Post by dyrewolfe on Thu 24 Mar 2016, 2:56 pm

Amen to that.

Theres no reason we can't work with the EU, without being controlled by it.

And the £8bn or so we'll save in membership fees every year, the Chancellor can put towards reducing our national debt - or trying to sort out the NHS / schools / pubic transport / housing (take your pick). Wink

https://fullfact.org/economy/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/
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Post by Pr4wn on Thu 24 Mar 2016, 4:01 pm

dyrewolfe wrote:Amen to that.

Theres no reason we can't work with the EU, without being controlled by it.

And the £8bn or so we'll save in membership fees every year, the Chancellor can put towards reducing our national debt - or trying to sort out the NHS / schools / pubic transport / housing (take your pick). Wink

https://fullfact.org/economy/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

Laugh

He's been doing a great job with that so far!

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Post by aja424 on Thu 24 Mar 2016, 5:39 pm

No he isn't. But that's even more of a reason to be not throw our money away.

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Post by Rowley on Fri 25 Mar 2016, 6:59 pm

We could always ask Google, Facebook,Amazon and the like to pay the amount HMRC expect them to pay. Alternatively we could always demonise migrants looking to make a better life for themselves and their family. Just a thought.


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Post by Duty281 on Fri 25 Mar 2016, 8:03 pm

Rowley wrote:Alternatively we could always demonise migrants looking to make a better life for themselves and their family.

And who's doing that, pray tell?

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Post by Rowley on Fri 25 Mar 2016, 9:06 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Rowley wrote:Alternatively we could always demonise migrants looking to make a better life for themselves and their family.

And who's doing that, pray tell?

Not you, obviously, you'd have to be racist, bigoted, ill informed or stupid enough to buy into everything UKIP or the Daily Mail tell you for that particular cap to fit.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Wed 30 Mar 2016, 10:18 am

dyrewolfe wrote:Amen to that.

Theres no reason we can't work with the EU, without being controlled by it.

And the £8bn or so we'll save in membership fees every year, the Chancellor can put towards reducing our national debt - or trying to sort out the NHS / schools / pubic transport / housing (take your pick). Wink

https://fullfact.org/economy/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

Or maybe that £8bn will actually get ploughed back into the EU, like Norway has to, in order to access the market.....

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Wed 30 Mar 2016, 3:39 pm

Ipsos MORI have released the EU referendum figures from their monthly political monitor. Topline figures are REMAIN 49%, LEAVE 41%, DK/WNV 10%. Full details are here.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 31 Mar 2016, 12:11 pm

Worth remembering that EU exit voters are more motivated and all polls point to their voters being most likely to turn up......

Said it all along it will be a close vote..and that people are just switched off by Europe in general... and could be sleepwalking into a nightmare.....

Turn out is expected to be well down on GE levels....

I expect Remain to win but I reckon any lead Remain has can be docked a few points.....I'm not sure I can be arsed to vote.... I'll decide on the day....I want to stay in but it could be fun watching the spoon fed morons implode after Remain loses.... but I have no doubts my Wife and her family will definitely be voting for EU exit....


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Post by Hero on Thu 31 Mar 2016, 12:29 pm

Isn't it normally the case that when push comes to shove on election day that floating voters are more likely to stay with the status quo of what is than to risk change as to what may be?

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 31 Mar 2016, 12:42 pm

Not really a normal election is it.......

Not voting for a party are you.....But there could be a case for that..

Polls show that exit voters are more likely to vote.......Remain voters are less interested...

Also a case for voters taking a No vote for granted...

Interesting how it plays out..

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Thu 31 Mar 2016, 3:25 pm

Hero wrote:Isn't it normally the case that when push comes to shove on election day that floating voters are more likely to stay with the status quo of what is than to risk change as to what may be?

It is indeed. As demonstrated by the last two major votes in the UK - Scots ref and GE15 where both time the status quo was retained.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 31 Mar 2016, 3:36 pm

Like I said it isn't as emotive as a GE or a Scottish independence..

Turnout will be down..

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Post by Duty281 on Thu 31 Mar 2016, 3:58 pm

Hero wrote:Isn't it normally the case that when push comes to shove on election day that floating voters are more likely to stay with the status quo of what is than to risk change as to what may be?

If only there was a status quo to vote for.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Thu 31 Mar 2016, 3:59 pm

Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 31 Mar 2016, 4:03 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Hero wrote:Isn't it normally the case that when push comes to shove on election day that floating voters are more likely to stay with the status quo of what is than to risk change as to what may be?

If only there was a status quo to vote for.

Here we go... here we go... here we go.....

Rockin all over the World..

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Post by Duty281 on Thu 31 Mar 2016, 4:09 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Hero wrote:Isn't it normally the case that when push comes to shove on election day that floating voters are more likely to stay with the status quo of what is than to risk change as to what may be?

If only there was a status quo to vote for.

Here we go... here we go... here we go.....

Rockin all over the World..

No really, a lot of undecided folk (according to polling) are worried about ever-greater Union and the inclusion of Turkey.

There is no status quo.

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Post by Pr4wn on Thu 31 Mar 2016, 4:21 pm

Turkey are a billion miles away from joining the EU. Far too non-secular to even be considered.

The Daily Fail are still telling you that you're scared though, that's what counts.

Also, hilarious that Paul Dacre has claimed almost half a million quid in subsidies from the EU for his "farmland". What a stinking hypocrite.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu 31 Mar 2016, 4:27 pm

No more stinking than Farage and his cronies milking a big salary and expenses..

Still we won't talk about that.. Duty has more Christian things on his mind...Wink

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Post by Duty281 on Thu 31 Mar 2016, 4:32 pm

Pr4wn wrote:Turkey are a billion miles away from joining the EU. Far too non-secular to even be considered.

The Daily Fail are still telling you that you're scared though, that's what counts.

Also, hilarious that Paul Dacre has claimed almost half a million quid in subsidies from the EU for his "farmland". What a stinking hypocrite.

I don't read the Daily Mail, sorry to upset your prejudice.

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Post by Duty281 on Thu 31 Mar 2016, 4:33 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:No more stinking than Farage and his cronies milking a big salary and expenses..

Still we won't talk about that.. Duty has more Christian things on his mind...Wink  

The Christian boy is a Remain-er too. I know how to pick 'em. laughing

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Thu 31 Mar 2016, 4:42 pm

Duty281 wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Hero wrote:Isn't it normally the case that when push comes to shove on election day that floating voters are more likely to stay with the status quo of what is than to risk change as to what may be?

If only there was a status quo to vote for.

Here we go... here we go... here we go.....

Rockin all over the World..

No really, a lot of undecided folk (according to polling) are worried about ever-greater Union and the inclusion of Turkey.

There is no status quo.

Evidence?

None of the polling info I've seen suggested DKs have been asked about which way they are leaning and what there specific concerns are.

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Post by Hoonercat on Sun 03 Apr 2016, 9:21 pm

McLaren wrote:I will be voting to stay in the EU based on my disdain for the people of the UK.  The general public is becoming more mean spirited and anti-humanist, and the likes of the torries can't help but give us the unequal society we asked for.

To counter this we need the EU to force us to keep things like workers rights, human rights, measures to tackle climate change and all the other wonderful things only more a progressive and social justice orientated mindset can give us.

I hope the UK looses almost all its ability to govern itself  and that we are forced into the "horrors" of what the EU wants to give us.

Couldn't agree more, we're turning into a nation of brainwashed consumers who must have the latest gadget while forgetting there are far more rewarding things in life.



Posted from my iphone 6S Plus

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Post by ShahenshahG on Sun 03 Apr 2016, 10:33 pm

Hoonercat wrote:
McLaren wrote:I will be voting to stay in the EU based on my disdain for the people of the UK.  The general public is becoming more mean spirited and anti-humanist, and the likes of the torries can't help but give us the unequal society we asked for.

To counter this we need the EU to force us to keep things like workers rights, human rights, measures to tackle climate change and all the other wonderful things only more a progressive and social justice orientated mindset can give us.

I hope the UK looses almost all its ability to govern itself  and that we are forced into the "horrors" of what the EU wants to give us.

Couldn't agree more, we're turning into a nation of brainwashed consumers who must have the latest gadget while forgetting there are far more rewarding things in life.



Posted from my iphone 6S Plus

laughing

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Post by Duty281 on Mon 04 Apr 2016, 3:13 am

TopHat24/7 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Hero wrote:Isn't it normally the case that when push comes to shove on election day that floating voters are more likely to stay with the status quo of what is than to risk change as to what may be?

If only there was a status quo to vote for.

Here we go... here we go... here we go.....

Rockin all over the World..

No really, a lot of undecided folk (according to polling) are worried about ever-greater Union and the inclusion of Turkey.

There is no status quo.

Evidence?

None of the polling info I've seen suggested DKs have been asked about which way they are leaning and what there specific concerns are.

Ah, my mistake. I found two polls about Turkey (both carried a result of around 33% saying they were more likely to vote 'Leave' if Turkey joined the EU) but they weren't exclusively aimed at the 'Don't Knows'.

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Post by Duty281 on Mon 04 Apr 2016, 3:34 am

The first poll of the month (taken by Opinium) shows Leave ahead by 43-39.

If we generalise quite heavily, it seems that the 34 and under age bracket are more likely to vote 'Remain', but far less likely to turn out; whereas the 35 and up age bracket are more likely to vote 'Leave', and more likely to turn out.

Turnout will be crucial.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/02/eu-referendum-young-voters-EU exit-leave

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Post by Hoonercat on Mon 04 Apr 2016, 10:39 am

ShahenshahG wrote:
Hoonercat wrote:
McLaren wrote:I will be voting to stay in the EU based on my disdain for the people of the UK.  The general public is becoming more mean spirited and anti-humanist, and the likes of the torries can't help but give us the unequal society we asked for.

To counter this we need the EU to force us to keep things like workers rights, human rights, measures to tackle climate change and all the other wonderful things only more a progressive and social justice orientated mindset can give us.

I hope the UK looses almost all its ability to govern itself  and that we are forced into the "horrors" of what the EU wants to give us.

Couldn't agree more, we're turning into a nation of brainwashed consumers who must have the latest gadget while forgetting there are far more rewarding things in life.



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Post by TopHat24/7 on Mon 04 Apr 2016, 11:49 am

Duty281 wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Hero wrote:Isn't it normally the case that when push comes to shove on election day that floating voters are more likely to stay with the status quo of what is than to risk change as to what may be?

If only there was a status quo to vote for.

Here we go... here we go... here we go.....

Rockin all over the World..

No really, a lot of undecided folk (according to polling) are worried about ever-greater Union and the inclusion of Turkey.

There is no status quo.

Evidence?

None of the polling info I've seen suggested DKs have been asked about which way they are leaning and what there specific concerns are.

Ah, my mistake. I found two polls about Turkey (both carried a result of around 33% saying they were more likely to vote 'Leave' if Turkey joined the EU) but they weren't exclusively aimed at the 'Don't Knows'.

Np. I get all my info from ukpollingreport and they'd just written a load of analysis on DKs and how they were being treated and I was pretty sure there was no mention of specific follow up questions (though, interestingly, some of the pollsters do apparently ask DKs feeler questions to help weight the polling results [or something like that]).

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 11:51 pm

Duty281 wrote:And don't forget the Dutch are having a little vote on April 6 as well - they're fully expected to stick two fingers (or the Dutch equivalent!) up to the EU.

FINAL RESULT of #Dutch #referendum on EU-Ukraine-deal:
YES: 38.1%
NO: 61.1%
Turnout: 32.2%

Well done to the Dutch.

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Post by Lowlandbrit on Thu 07 Apr 2016, 8:04 am

Duty281 wrote:FINAL RESULT of #Dutch #referendum on EU-Ukraine-deal:
YES: 38.1%
NO: 61.1%
Turnout: 32.2%
Quite a few supporters stayed at home hoping the 30% threshold (just a terrible late addition to the referendum law) wouldn't be met. Only ended up making the result look more emphatic.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 08 Apr 2016, 5:05 pm

Turnout will be crucial and most experts predict a low one..

A general election or the chance to be "Bonny Scotland" was always going to be more interesting..

However out needs to be closer in the phone polls to make the turnout prediction count..

2015 showed online polls meant diddly..

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Post by Duty281 on Fri 08 Apr 2016, 6:03 pm

I believe the 'Leave' side were ahead on one telephone poll published recently. This will happen more and more frequently as time wears on - I expect 'Leave' to have a consistent lead in the polling by late May.

Turnout will probably be around the 70-75% mark, so somewhat higher than the last General Election. The big problem for 'Remain' is a lot of these non-voters are the youth, who would probably vote 'Remain' if they were forced into the ballot box.

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Post by Shifty on Sun 10 Apr 2016, 12:17 pm

I think the UK will be leaving, and I will be glad for it. What's amazing the Remain camp are making such a hash of it their actually helping the Leave campaign.

Everything seems to be conspiring to help the Leave campaign, the PM embroiled in the tax scandal, the Ukraine and Turkey deals, the Dutch vote, the Welsh steel problems being blamed on EU laws. It's all snowballing against the Remain camp. Most of the news papers support the Leave, in fact I never knew how right leaning the Mail and Express were since I started checking their websites for stories.

People either want to passionately Leave or they don't care. Even this £9m leaflet their sending out has caused a stink.

Personally to try and get more balanced views I have Googled "Britain to leave EU" and translated it into Spanish, French, Dutch, and German to see what their views on the situation are and it's amazing that most of the peoples comments on their stories hope this will lead to the collapse of the EU and they can become "free" countries again.

The EU isn't listening, hasn't got any other answers to their problems other than "we need MORE integration and control" to solve this issue.

Personally I think Britain leaving will be best for the WORLD simply because if we integrate the Ukraine it might lead to war with Russia, frankly only France and Britain have an army capable of defending the EU and if were out of it, there is no way the French will want the job. Frankly I find it amazing the Germans have managed to expand peacefully and could end up using the British and French armies to do it!
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Post by Shifty on Sun 10 Apr 2016, 7:55 pm

Petition
STOP CAMERON spending British taxpayers’ money on Pro-EU Referendum leaflets

Prime Minister David Cameron plans to spend British taxpayers’ money on a pro-EU document to be sent to every household in the United Kingdom in the run up to the EU referendum. We believe voters deserve a fair referendum - without taxpayer-funded biased interceptions by the Government.

We, the petitioners, demand the Government STOPS spending our money on biased campaigning to keep Britain inside the European Union.

The Great British Public have waited since 1975 for a vote on our relationship with Brussels. No taxpayers’ money should be spent on campaign literature to keep Britain inside the EU.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/116762
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Post by Duty281 on Sun 10 Apr 2016, 9:52 pm

Lowlandbrit wrote:
Duty281 wrote:FINAL RESULT of #Dutch #referendum on EU-Ukraine-deal:
YES: 38.1%
NO: 61.1%
Turnout: 32.2%
Quite a few supporters stayed at home hoping the 30% threshold (just a terrible late addition to the referendum law) wouldn't be met. Only ended up making the result look more emphatic.

Unsurprisingly, the European Commission will ignore this result.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-netherlands-eu-ukraine-idUKKCN0X70SL?rpc=401

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Sun 10 Apr 2016, 11:38 pm

No way will it be 70 percent and no way will it be higher than a GE..

I'm not sure I can be bothered voting and I'm more political than most..

Most people have little idea about the EU and even less care.

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Post by Duty281 on Mon 11 Apr 2016, 1:34 am

From my experience, a lot of people do care and will be voting.

I'm expectant of a turnout of over 70%; I will be very surprised if it is lower than 65%.

The main voter apathy will stem from some Remainers and younger voters - those 40 and over seem highly likely to vote and, of course, those wanting to Leave will happily crawl across broken glass to get their vote recorded.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Mon 11 Apr 2016, 11:31 am

Shifty wrote:Petition
STOP CAMERON spending British taxpayers’ money on Pro-EU Referendum leaflets

Prime Minister David Cameron plans to spend British taxpayers’ money on a pro-EU document to be sent to every household in the United Kingdom in the run up to the EU referendum. We believe voters deserve a fair referendum - without taxpayer-funded biased interceptions by the Government.

We, the petitioners, demand the Government STOPS spending our money on biased campaigning to keep Britain inside the European Union.

The Great British Public have waited since 1975 for a vote on our relationship with Brussels. No taxpayers’ money should be spent on campaign literature to keep Britain inside the EU.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/116762

Any way to check that that petition is only signed by UK tax-payers??

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