Why is Djokovic so dominant?

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Post by Guest on Mon 04 Apr 2016, 7:16 pm

First topic message reminder :

The difference between the Federer run and the Djokovic run (both mightily impressive) is that Federer did it with a style, panache and level of play that brought new fans into the sport in truckloads and got old heads talking all over again. Of course Federer kept it up for 4 years - Djokovic may yet do that - the opportunity is certainly there.

Federer, to quote Agassi, 'was the guy that came and took the game light years ahead'. Federer fans, and indeed tennis fans, will remember watching him play in those days simply to see what outrageous play he would produce next. It was magical.

Djokovic in contrast, aside from a good spell in the latter half of 2015, hasn't been all that special. If anyone has watched him this year, you'd note that he's looked far from magical. Most of his wins have been dull affairs. And that's not knocking him or his style. For me, he certainly has not been as brilliant as he was in the first half of 2011, yet, the form right now, which in terms of absolute level of play is similar to 2012 in my estimation, has won him numerous titles - easily. Ditto for the first half of last year - form wasn't anything special yet wracked up the titles.

Did anyone watch the Miami final ?- god awful tennis.
The IW tournament wasn't too hot either. He's laboured through the last three big tournaments in terms of form but has still won the titles and never looked in danger of losing. Clearly shows a huge gap at the top. The Raonic, Dimitrov generation is the worst since the late nineties (and much worse than that generation too). The next generation after that are too young to make an impact (or perhaps not good enough - since history shows that great players almost always make an early impact - we shall see) leaving the way clear for Djokovic to sweep up. The fact that Djokovic's main competition for the last 2 years has been an old Federer - who himself is still beating everyone else handily - is testament to the sad state of competition.

In essence he has become supremely dominant by just maintaining. Another aspect to this unprecedented dominance is the propensity of slow and medium paced courts which allow him to play the same game everywhere - the game that he's number one at. There's no need to adapt or change style. Even now, on a fast paced court (Dubai, Cincinatti) some players would have a decent chance against him but on the majority uniformly slowish courts, where defence and consistency determines the victor, the best defender in the game, invariably comes out on top.

So for me, impressive, as this run is in terms of results, the actual tennis has for large stretches been pretty uninspiring - and I guess that's reflected in the general uptake. Djokovic is not transcending his sport the way Federer (and he did even before the rivalry with Nadal had started) did. No one's talking about his accomplishments the way people did about Federer despite a 20 month spell that has been as dominant as any equally lengthy Federer span.

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Post by Born Slippy on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 2:59 pm

HM Murdock wrote:
temporary21 wrote:"Given that a 34 year old Fed still gives him trouble on a fast surface"

You dont watch this supposed weak ass 34 year old Fed then? Hes still brilliant, a win against him is a still a huge scalp.
You've misapplied that quote.

If Fed can threaten on a fast court at age 34, it's entirely sensible to think he'd be an even bigger threat with the speed and explosive energy of a 25 year old.

If we're to judge if tennis has "moved on", we have to compare it against a previous best.

"Roger Federer" is not a fixed point!

But would he have had the experience to play in the way he does now? I can remember him at his peak time and again playing the same game against Nadal and failing, without ever trying anything different. I'm unconvinced a 25 year old Fed would have accepted he was never going to beat Novak slugging it out from the baseline.

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Post by HM Murdock on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 3:32 pm

Born Slippy wrote:But would he have had the experience to play in the way he does now? I can remember him at his peak time and again playing the same game against Nadal and failing, without ever trying anything different. I'm unconvinced a 25 year old Fed would have accepted he was never going to beat Novak slugging it out from the baseline.
Novak poses a different challenge to Rafa. One of the good things about about the Fed v Djoko rivalry is that neither player stifles the other. They can both play their natural way and whoever is better on the day wins.

25 year old Fed would probably wouldn't come to the net as much as present day Fed but he probably wouldn't need to. Many of Fed's forays to the net are an attempt to keep the points short. That wouldn't be as important to 25 year old Federer.

This is all speculative, of course, but I think peak Fed v peak Novak would be a good match up. They'd push each other to their best tennis.

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Post by Belovedluckyboy on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 4:09 pm

HM, Rafa vs Fed wasnt always about stiffling the other, except maybe on clay where Rafa clearly could see Fed's weakness on clay ie his SHBH. Rafa certainly didnt stifle Fed on grass at Wimbledon in 2007/2₩08, or AO2009/2012/2014. In fact, they produced some classics there at Wimbledon and at AO2009, even 2012. The Rome 2006 final was another classic, and on clay.

In fact a young Rafa vs prime Fed on quick HCs also produced some great matches, eg Dubai 2006 final, TMC Shanghai SF 2006. Their 2013 Cincy QF, where Rafa was in top form vs an off form Fed, and their Basel 2015 final, where a top form Fed vs an off form Rafa, were also very good matches with the tennis level they still could produce against each other.


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Post by HM Murdock on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 4:28 pm

^'Stifle' is perhaps the wrong word.

But that rivalry has overwhelmingly been Rafa playing his game and Federer trying to find solutions.

As Roger said last year: “With Rafa I feel like I need to change everything when I play him".

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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 4:51 pm

HM Murdock wrote:
Born Slippy wrote: The Federer of today would, in my view, still easily be able to dominate 04-06.
Interesting thought.

I don't see him producing seasons of 92-5. Those sort of numbers need a player with the foot speed of the younger Fed.

But I still think he'd be #1. I find it hard to imagine the likes of Roddick, Hewitt, Davydenko and teenage Rafa getting better results than him over the course of a whole year.

The weird thing about the current state of affairs is that 3 years ago, everyone would have expected Djokovic, Nadal and Murray to have pulled clear of Federer by 2016. He is, after all, 5-6 years older than them. That should matter when the older man is 34.

The fact that only one of the three has done so is very odd.

Federer has not done anything unusual in terms of playing well in to his thirties. If anything he has underperformed. He had no big injuries, his style of play doesn't rely on fitness or foot speed, and supposedly he has all this weak competition (not weak era LOL!) to beat up on. Yet Federer has managed a single slam where NON GOAT Agassi managed 3 against a truly pathetic crop of players known as Fed's contemporaries. Fed troubles Novak more for the simple reason that he plays a different way than the rest of the tour, and is now an unorthodox opponent who can only beat Novak on a fast court over three sets when Novak isn't playing well. Wow, 1 slam in like six years equals domination and a sign that the younger players are deficient. Wait Agassi won 3 slams in his 30s beating up on the very weak era sissies that are now being lionized again. Ken Rosewal was in the top 3 at almost 40 years old.
So the question is why has the GOAT underperformed in his 30s, probably because he has run up against a true great at peak powers named Novak Djokovic.


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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:03 pm

legendkillarV2 wrote:
temporary21 wrote:
legendkillarV2 wrote:
temporary21 wrote:Things is lk, id reverse what you said there. A lot of people would call 2004 the fluctuation caused by Roger, and this gen the cr@p one that Novak has been lucky to take advantage of

In the end which one it is depends on whether youre a fanboy of Fed or Novak, which is why its a bunch of sh*t in the end anyway.

"Given that a 34 year old Fed still gives him trouble on a fast surface"

You dont watch this supposed weak ass 34 year old Fed then? Hes still brilliant, a win against him is a still a huge scalp.

There is simply no way to get people to swallow that Fed is sh*t in anyway.

Why on earth do people think that Federer will somehow buck the trend of hundreds of years of sports history, in that future players will eventually exceed them? Because hes pretty?

Its no disrespect to Roger, he was one of the two greatest of his time, but he will ultimately be superseded by a player who took the bar he set and raise it. Hes still there anyway.

I had this argument ages ago in which I asked what the difference was between Roger beating a 35 year old Slam winner in a Slam final as compared with Djokovic beating a 35 year old Slam winner in a final.

No-one produced a sensible answer, so I gave up.
Correct lk. There is NO real difference, both were old but still playing top top tennis. The only slight difference is that Agassis ranking had dropped because his back has nearly gone by then, but he didnt play like it that day.
Despite that, we still get arguments from other posters (not you) that competition levels fluctuation is relevant to one guys great success but not the other. Which is a clear disrespect due to blind player bias, which is getting real dull to me.

Indeed. No difference at all. Both guys at the same stage of their respective careers, though beating one of them was frowned upon as being no competition and the other was serenaded as if he was St George himself slaying the mighty dragon.

Yeah I am the one who is biased in favor of Djokovic. Not the people who treated those who make arguments about lack of Fed's competition in his heyday as weak competition as insanity, who are now making the same EXACT ARGUMENTS that I made about lack of great slam winners as competition and IMBL by the way. Those Fed fans who denied the import of talking about any competition level Federer faced as meaningless are now doing it to Djokovic and pretending like they never argued the exact opposite for like a decade. Yeah, those wonderful unbiased weak era deniers. (Yes we all know it is not easy to ever be the best on the ATP tour, even I said that at the peak of the weak era so just save that non-argument) I should be as unbiased as Fed fan and now chalk up every single Djokovic loss to his age because those unbiased Federer fans did the same thing with every Federer loss post 2009. Yes those unbiased Fed apologist/weak era deniers; I will try hard to emulate their sparkling record for lack of bias. But from now on Novak only loses because he is old, just like fed post 2009.

By the way I have no problem at all stating 2015 and 2016 is the start of the weaker period of relative competition, a transitional or weak period if you will. Now if he beats up on this weaker competition for another 2 and half years he will be even with the statistical inflation Federer experienced.

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Post by It Must Be Love on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:06 pm

socal1976 wrote:
Yeah I am the one who is biased in favor of Djokovic. Not the people who treated those who make arguments about lack of Fed's competition in his heyday as weak competition as insanity, who are now making the same EXACT ARGUMENTS that I made about lack of great slam winners as competition and IMBL by the way. Those Fed fans who denied the import of talking about any competition level Federer faced as meaningless are now doing it to Djokovic and pretending like they never argued the exact opposite for like a decade. Yeah, those wonderful unbiased weak era deniers.


socal1976 wrote:
By the way I have no problem at all stating 2015 and 2016 is the start of the weaker period of relative competition, a transitional or weak period if you will. Now if he beats up on this weaker competition for another 2 and half years he will be even with the statistical inflation Federer experienced.

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Post by Belovedluckyboy on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:08 pm

Peak Fed vs peak Djoko, I think who wins depends on the surface they play on. Fed clearly better on quicker surfaces, judging by he keeps beating a peak Djoko at Dubai, Cincy and Shanghai. Djoko should be better on slower courts -AO, IW and Miami.

I do feel Fed is slightly better than Djoko when it comes to clay, Fed seems to move better on the clay surface.

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Post by It Must Be Love on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:13 pm

Socal you're being very unfair here; you haven't acknowledged the huge numbers of people who have stayed principled and vehemently argued that there's no such thing as competition fluctuation as a win is a win, and if there is then it's very small so we can't really talk about it, and ok if not that then it will 'cancel out in the medium term' so it's too short term to talk about and if not that then it's subjective anyway and we can't have subjective discussions ofc because erm I'll get back to you that, and also there are 4 slams in a year every year so what do you mean competition and um erm uuuh I didn't use the term weak era did I which makes it all completely different even though I'm saying the same thing and also the uum... yeah

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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:17 pm

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Peak Fed vs peak Djoko, I think who wins depends on the surface they play on. Fed clearly better on quicker surfaces, judging by he keeps beating a peak Djoko at Dubai, Cincy and Shanghai. Djoko should be better on slower courts -AO, IW and Miami.

I do feel Fed is slightly better than Djoko when it comes to clay, Fed seems to move better on the clay surface.

No way Fed is better than Djoko on clay. Djoko did beat peak or near peak Nadal on clay in 2011 multiple times, Fed never could. Djokovic has more titles on clay, Fed has the one slam over Djokovic that frankly I doubt will be an advantage in his favor for long. Even if it is Novak's CV right now is far more dominant on clay than Fed. One match in 2011 where Fed played great and Novak played like garbage for a set and half doesn't change all the extra titles and wins on clay against the clay court GOAT Novak has.

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Post by temporary21 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:20 pm

Imbl finly reveals his true form as Jeff Goldblum

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Post by LuvSports! on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:21 pm

You really don't give Feds any credit for outplaying Novak do you? :P

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Post by temporary21 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:22 pm

Agreed. Novak is a proper challenge to Nadal on clay whilst federer never was. their last meeting at Rome was a reflection of how it would go

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Post by temporary21 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:24 pm

He's still great, and can match novak... Sometimes, but novak has still moved past him overall

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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:25 pm

It Must Be Love wrote:Socal you're being very unfair here; you haven't acknowledged the huge numbers of people who have stayed principled and vehemently argued that there's no such thing as competition fluctuation as a win is a win, and if there is then it's very small so we can't really talk about it, and ok if not that then it will 'cancel out in the medium term' so it's too short term to talk about and if not that then it's subjective anyway and we can't have subjective discussions ofc because erm I'll get back to you that, and also there are 4 slams in a year every year so what do you mean competition and um erm uuuh I didn't use the term weak era did I which makes it all completely different even though I'm saying the same thing and also the uum... yeah

The funny thing is they think can make the same exact arguments we made, (ie lack of great slam winning opposition) but as long as they don't call it weak era somehow they are superior. Weak era wasn't invented by me, but by Sampras fans and it was true, but people exaggerated it a bit as a joke. I remember a guy called Lion who used to say things like Sampras would win 40 slams if he played against Fed's competition. It was a schtick, but there was a real argument there and those who talked seriously about it always acknowledged that it is never easy to be the best but playing against other greats truly determined how tough it would be to dominate and it should be looked at. This is what we said, but no back in those beknighted days Novak's 2012 AO win in 6 hours over Nadal was no more valuable than Fed beating Baghdatitis and one could not logically view the former as even 1 percent more telling than the latter.

These guys remind of Republicans who want to repeal Obamacare but want to keep the mandatory coverage of people with pre-existing conditions which is the biggest part of Obamacare. So you are against it, but if we change the name you are for keeping the most important part? Don't give me a sandwich, just take some meat, cheese, and put it in between two pieces of bread and maybe put some mayo on it.

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Post by Guest on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:27 pm

Peakaboo I see you GOAT debate.

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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:28 pm

LuvSports! wrote:You really don't give Feds any credit for outplaying Novak do you? :P

Great he won that match how did he do in the final? Do you want to give Novak credit for owning the H2H against both Federer and Nadal?

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Post by Belovedluckyboy on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:28 pm

Nope, I'm comparing Fed playing against Djoko on clay, not Fed's credentials on clay vs Djoko's. Dont make that mistake.

Im not comparing them playing against Rafa or the field. How come everyone makes the same mistake when it comes to clay, that they have to compare Fed or Djoko to Rafa?

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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:29 pm

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Nope, I'm comparing Fed playing against Djoko on clay, not Fed's credentials on clay vs Djoko's. Dont make that mistake.

Im not comparing them playing against Rafa or the field.  How come everyone makes the same mistake when it comes to clay, that they have to compare Fed or Djoko to Rafa?

Tennis is not determined on h2h records but on trophies won, so Federer fans tell us.

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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:30 pm

PS Novak has a better career H2h on clay than Roger

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Post by LuvSports! on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:31 pm

socal1976 wrote:
LuvSports! wrote:You really don't give Feds any credit for outplaying Novak do you? :P

Great he won that match how did he do in the final? Do you want to give Novak credit for owning the H2H against both Federer and Nadal?

I don't rage against Novak constantly like you do with Feds.
I'm not Jahu :P

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Post by Belovedluckyboy on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:35 pm

Socal, read again. Its Fed vs Djoko playing on clay, not their winning% on clay!

Rafa > Fed H2H on HC whilst DJoko = Fed H2H on HCs, does that mean Rafa > Djoko on HCs??

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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:41 pm

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Socal, read again. Its Fed vs Djoko playing on clay, not their winning% on clay!

Rafa > Fed H2H on HC whilst DJoko = Fed H2H on HCs, does that mean Rafa > Djoko on HCs??

Peak Djokovic is better on clay than Peak Roger, whether they play each other or anyone else. I read your post don't agree. Just on BH and BH return alone and how much better Novak handles the high ball on that side. You are entitled to your opinion, I think you are wrong and I think most people who know tennis would tell you Novak's game is better on clay than Fed's.

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Post by temporary21 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:45 pm

Thats not how h2h works by its very definition...

That can only tell you two things

1) Rafa really has the wood over Roger to have that kind of h2h despite differing hc pedigrees.
2) Novak and Roger are well matched on a hc, which is about right.

When you have a lot of of matches, over multiple surfaces and years on the big stage. Thats when the h2h becomes compelling. Unfortunately, under these circumstances Roger has a losing h2h against them both.

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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:46 pm

LuvSports! wrote:
socal1976 wrote:
LuvSports! wrote:You really don't give Feds any credit for outplaying Novak do you? :P

Great he won that match how did he do in the final? Do you want to give Novak credit for owning the H2H against both Federer and Nadal?

I don't rage against Novak constantly like you do with Feds.
I'm not Jahu :P

I am not raging against Roger, I am laughing till the point of almost wetting myself. It is amazing how the camp that claimed weak era = insanity are now claiming Djokovic is beating up on weak competition over and over again. All it took for those who claimed that competition level is irrelevant, to something that should be discussed thoroughly is that Novak is dominating and not their favorite. And then these same people level charges of bias against me, hilarious stuff. I mean as creative as I am I couldn't make this crap up unless I dropped some milligrams of acid like Ken Kesey.

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Post by It Must Be Love on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 5:47 pm

I'd rate Djokovic ahead of Federer on clay, but not by much.
My friend did a stats analysis on this, and their numbers are eerily similar:
http://sportpulse.net/content/who-is-better-on-clay-novak-djokovic-or-roger-federer

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Post by Henman Bill on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 6:03 pm

Djokovic's 3 wins against Federer at the French Open and Rome in 2012 and 2015 felt fairly routine in a way his hard court matches against Federer didn't. The clay neutralizes the Federer attack, and tips the balance in favour of Djokovic, both in the head to head and overall performance in the surface.

Djokovic has more wins against Rafa (including one at FO, which Roger never managed once, admittedly against a weakened Rafa) and since 2011 has been the better clay player. Federer has to play really well to beat him at the French Open in 2011, but that will not happen against unless he hits a hot streak for 2 sets solid or conditions favour.

Djokovic is the better clay player since 2011, but in overall greatness through their career it's more even, and until Djokovic wins the French Open, you have to give the edge to the player with the French Open title.

However if Djokovic can get the French Open title, he'd probably be the best.


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Post by hawkeye on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 6:04 pm

Imagine tennis was a sport such as the long jump were competitors were measured against each other and although the one that jumped the longest on the day came away with the gold medal or equivalent there was also a measure of how well they performed. Again taking the long jump as an example were the world record is 8.95m imagine there were only 2 players (Roger and Rafa) capable of jumping over say 8.9m so if both were in the competition chances are one of them would produce a good enough jump to win. Apart from Novak with a personal best of say 8.5m no other player was capable of jumping over 8m so Novak was always close and always had a good chance of picking up a win if there were no jumps over 8.5m.

But now Roger is old and hasn't jumped over 8m in years and Rafa has had poor form and hasn't jumped over 8m in the last year or so and neither has any other player. Jumps of over 8m are rare...  Novak is still consistently putting in jumps over 8m and that's all that is needed to win. But he has still never jumped over 8.5m. Indeed his personal best over the last couple of years has dropped to 8.3m perhaps because of age but perhaps because he hasn't been challenged. It is worth noting that some of Novak's 8.3m jumps have looked longer than they really are but this is an optical illusion caused by the times when the competition have barely passed the 7m mark Wink

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Post by Belovedluckyboy on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 6:13 pm

Djoko's game may be better than Fed's on clay but not his movement. Fed has better movement and balance on clay. Fed has better FH too; I'm talking about peak Fed.

The 2006 Fed on clay vs Djoko now on clay, I doubt its that clear cut that Djoko is better than Fed on clay. Yeah we can differ in our opinions.

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Post by Belovedluckyboy on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 6:20 pm

Fed at 2012 wasnt at his peak! He's 30 going on 31! Fed is always better on the HCs than on clay, hence Djoko at his peak could beat Fed on clay more easily compared to beating Fed on the HCs.

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Post by hawkeye on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 6:33 pm

Djokovic only played Federer 3 times on clay prior to 2012 and Federer only lost one of those matches (Rome in 2009). Federer beat Djokovic at RG in 2011 when Djokovic was playing at IMO his best. Federer has been a finalist 4 times and has a title at RG. Federer only lost finals to Nadal. Djokovic has been to 3 RG finals losing twice to Nadal (fair enough) but also lost one to Wawrinka...

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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 6:36 pm

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Fed at 2012 wasnt at his peak! He's 30 going on 31! Fed is always better on the HCs than on clay, hence Djoko at his peak could beat Fed on clay more easily compared to beating Fed on the HCs.

So should we discount all the wins Federer had at or near his peak against a teenage or early 20 something Djokovic because back then Novak wasn't near his peak. Why is this whole peak Federer analysis only used to pump up Federer and knock down his opponents. How about the fact that a teenage, asthmatic Djokovic was able to stay with peak Federer at his absolute best better than any of his own contemporaries. Fine lets eliminate all pre-2011 losses by Djokovic because he wasn't at his peak to.

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Post by Belovedluckyboy on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 7:07 pm

My post at 1.20am was in response to Henman Bill's post at 1.03am.

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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 7:10 pm

From now on I am going to be like Fed fan, no Djokovic loss prior to 2011 counts because he was NOT AT HIS PEAK and suffering from terrible respiratory problems. Furthermore, any loss to a younger player from here on out doesn't count because Novak is old. Afterall he is the same age Federer was in 09 when all of Fed's losses went from being mono induced to age induced. And competition level is irrelevant Novak's competition is as strong as any ever or the answer to that question is unknowable, like what happens on the other side of an event horizon in a black hole all rules of physics breaks down. Furthermore, any mention that Novak is benefitting from weaker competition in 2015 and 2016 requires the maker of that statement be instantly committed to the wonderful people at NHS, in a padded cell after enough mood altering medication that would turn Donald Trump sedate, we wouldn't want these crazies to hurt themselves.

I just want to thank those wonderful unbiased Fed fans to showing me the light and error of my ways. I will strive to be as unbiased and wonderful as they have been over the years.

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Post by paulcz on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 8:49 pm

socal1976 wrote:From now on I am going to be like Fed fan, no Djokovic loss prior to 2011 counts because he was NOT AT HIS PEAK and suffering from terrible respiratory problems. Furthermore, any loss to a younger player from here on out doesn't count because Novak is old. Afterall he is the same age Federer was in 09 when all of Fed's losses went from being mono induced to age induced. And competition level is irrelevant Novak's competition is as strong as any ever or the answer to that question is unknowable, like what happens on the other side of an event horizon in a black hole all rules of physics breaks down. Furthermore, any mention that Novak is benefitting from weaker competition in 2015 and 2016 requires the maker of that statement be instantly committed to the wonderful people at NHS, in a padded cell after enough mood altering medication that would turn Donald Trump sedate, we wouldn't want these crazies to hurt themselves.

I just want to thank those wonderful unbiased Fed fans to showing me the light and error of my ways. I will strive to be as unbiased and wonderful as they have been over the years.

Hey Socal, tbh I am not sure if we can compare these periods. Because of the following:
- Mono is infectious, whereas respiratory disease is not
- Competition in 2009 was surely stronger because David Nalbandian was still playing (no. 11)
- Better strings and rackets were produced last year
- Balls are made from a bit less elastic rubber than in 2009, because it was less rain last year, which caused that many caoutchoucs lost freshness or dried
- Average temperature increased by 0,2°C since then on. Although I don’t know what it actually caused, it surely somehow hampered Fed.

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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 8:59 pm

paulcz wrote:
socal1976 wrote:From now on I am going to be like Fed fan, no Djokovic loss prior to 2011 counts because he was NOT AT HIS PEAK and suffering from terrible respiratory problems. Furthermore, any loss to a younger player from here on out doesn't count because Novak is old. Afterall he is the same age Federer was in 09 when all of Fed's losses went from being mono induced to age induced. And competition level is irrelevant Novak's competition is as strong as any ever or the answer to that question is unknowable, like what happens on the other side of an event horizon in a black hole all rules of physics breaks down. Furthermore, any mention that Novak is benefitting from weaker competition in 2015 and 2016 requires the maker of that statement be instantly committed to the wonderful people at NHS, in a padded cell after enough mood altering medication that would turn Donald Trump sedate, we wouldn't want these crazies to hurt themselves.

I just want to thank those wonderful unbiased Fed fans to showing me the light and error of my ways. I will strive to be as unbiased and wonderful as they have been over the years.

Hey Socal, tbh I am not sure if we can compare these periods. Because of the following:
- Mono is infectious, whereas respiratory disease is not
- Competition in 2009 was surely stronger because David Nalbandian was still playing (no. 11)
- Better strings and rackets were produced last year
- Balls are made from a bit less elastic rubber than in 2009, because it was less rain last year, which caused that many caoutchoucs  lost freshness or dried
- Average temperature increased by 0,2°C since then on. Although I don’t know what it actually caused, it surely somehow hampered Fed.

I think you are on to something there Paul, we know how Novak doesn't like the heat. From now on all his losses are down to man made climate change and his age of course, after all the precedent has been established that any win over a tennis player passed the age of 28 by a younger player doesn't count because apparently 28 is the new 38.

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Post by bogbrush on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 9:25 pm

Socal's got a bit overexcited I see.
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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 9:53 pm

No BB, I just point out how laughable it is that I am accused of being biased by people who called me crazy for knocking Fed's competition as weak, now those same people are doing it to Djokovic and pretending like they didn't spend a decade denying the existence of weak competition or a weak field as something that could never exist or be quantified. I find the sheer hypocrisy pretty funny.

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Post by Born Slippy on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 10:01 pm

bogbrush wrote:
Born Slippy wrote:No it doesn't. It reflects very positively on Federer. He has managed to maintain the hunger, desire and fitness to keep himself very close to his peak level. I've shown previously that his record against younger guys he played against in his mid to late 20s is more or less identical to his combined record against them more recently. The Federer of today would, in my view, still easily be able to dominate 04-06.

That's not to say that I don't share concerns over the guys in the 22-26 age group. They clearly are a weak cohort. However, Federer of today would be at or near the top in any era - it's a bizarre stick for fans of Federer to seek to beat them with.
Really? I guess guys in the last few years who've beaten him, like Cilic, Kyriagos, Seppi, Monfils, Isner, Ramos-Vanolis, etc. are all better than the guys who Federer routinely trounced in his pomp.

Honestly, facts always come in handy in these discussions.

Yes, you are right, all of those guys have dominated him recently. Oh no, wait a second, they have one-off victories mixed in with getting routinely trounced by him. Is that dissimilar to Volandri, Gasquet, Del Potro, Canas (twice!) and Blake who got wins over him during his mid 20s?

Fed isn't quite as good now but the dip in his standard is, in my view, relatively small. That said, no way would Fed 2015 lose to Canas or Volandri. He's learnt how to deal with that sort of player.

The only defeat I think would look totally out of place in his peak years would be Seppi in a slam. However, I do suspect there was something up with him health wise in that match. It was just as much an outlier in 2014-15 as it would have been in 2004-05.

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Post by temporary21 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 10:20 pm

Certain people like facts, particularly routinely avoiding facts that don't follow their arguments. It doesn't make you more intelligent than the rest if you just mention the word facts, but are just as biased as everyone else

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Post by Guest on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 10:27 pm

Peak Nadal on the Clay beats peak everyone else on the clay.

Nadal was particularly effective against Federer; ultraspun high bouncing balls to his backhand was just a killer for Federer - it was like Kryptonite to superman because Federer I have become convinced was superman of tennis.  I think peak Federer beats peak Djokovic a majority of times on grass and the medium to fast surfaces.

One of the most impressive abilities of Federer was how he was able to handle the huge servers.  Somehow he was never blown away by the big servers, usually he beat them in straight sets.

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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 10:36 pm

Nore Staat wrote:Peak Nadal on the Clay beats peak everyone else on the clay.

Nadal was particularly effective against Federer; ultraspun high bouncing balls to his backhand was just a killer for Federer - it was like Kryptonite to superman because Federer I have become convinced was superman of tennis.  I think peak Federer beats peak Djokovic a majority of times on grass and the medium to fast surfaces.

One of the most impressive abilities of Federer was how he was able to handle the huge servers.  Somehow he was never blown away by the big servers, usually he beat them in straight sets.

Since we can not create a time machine and zap a 26 year old Fed through a wormhole, I will just rely on their actual H2H which favors Djokovic. Fed has 17 slams but I think we can say that a number of his records are now under threat, if not the magical 17 slam number, that may still be safe but weeks at #1 and YE #1s are for sure going to be in some distress.

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Post by Guest on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 10:47 pm

Head to Head Grand Slams.  The transition seems to have occurred in 2010 when Djokovic overtakes Federer.  
Federer would have been 28/29.  Djokovic 22/23.
2016 Au Open SF Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 6-1 6-2 3-6 6-3
2015 US Open F  Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 6-4 5-7 6-4 6-4
2015 Wimbled F  Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 7-6 6-7 6-4 6-3
2014 Wimbled F Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 6-7 6-4 7-6 5-7 6-4
2012 Wimbled SF Roger Federer beats Novak Djokovic 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3
2012 Fr. Open SF Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 6-4 7-5 6-3
2011 US Open SF Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 6-7 4-6 6-3 6-2 7-5
2011 Fr. Open SF Roger Federer beats Novak Djokovic 7-6 6-3 3-6 7-6
2011 Au Open SF Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 7-6 7-5 6-4
2010 US Open SF Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 5-7 6-1 5-7 6-2 7-5
2009 US Open SF Roger Federer beats Novak Djokovic 7-6 7-5 7-5
2008 US Open SF Roger Federer beats Novak Djokovic 6-3 5-7 7-5 6-2
2008 Au Open SF Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 7-5 6-3 7-6
2007 US Open F  Roger Federer beats Novak Djokovic 7-6 7-6 6-4
2007 Au Open R16 Roger Federer beats Novak Djokovic 6-2 7-5 6-3

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Post by socal1976 on Wed 06 Apr 2016, 11:13 pm

Nore Staat wrote:Head to Head Grand Slams.  The transition seems to have occurred in 2010 when Djokovic overtakes Federer.  
Federer would have been 28/29.  Djokovic 22/23.
2016 Au Open SF Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 6-1 6-2 3-6 6-3
2015 US Open F  Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 6-4 5-7 6-4 6-4
2015 Wimbled F  Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 7-6 6-7 6-4 6-3
2014 Wimbled F Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 6-7 6-4 7-6 5-7 6-4
2012 Wimbled SF Roger Federer beats Novak Djokovic 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3
2012 Fr. Open SF Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 6-4 7-5 6-3
2011 US Open SF Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 6-7 4-6 6-3 6-2 7-5
2011 Fr. Open SF Roger Federer beats Novak Djokovic 7-6 6-3 3-6 7-6
2011 Au Open SF Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 7-6 7-5 6-4
2010 US Open SF Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 5-7 6-1 5-7 6-2 7-5
2009 US Open SF Roger Federer beats Novak Djokovic 7-6 7-5 7-5
2008 US Open SF Roger Federer beats Novak Djokovic 6-3 5-7 7-5 6-2
2008 Au Open SF Novak Djokovic beats Roger Federer 7-5 6-3 7-6
2007 US Open F  Roger Federer beats Novak Djokovic 7-6 7-6 6-4
2007 Au Open R16 Roger Federer beats Novak Djokovic 6-2 7-5 6-3

Exactly, and we know that the precedent has now been established that any win by a tennis player over another player over the age of 28 is due to age, similar to how all Roger losses since 2009 has been due to his age.(Before that it was mono conveniently) If Novak loses next week to Nick Kyrgios it will be solely because Nole is old and Kyrgios would obviously stand no chance against a PEAK Novak. I actually don't care so much about the H2H or a GOAT debate. My point is simply that I won the weak era debate as the people who went from claiming there are no such things as weak eras and that competition level doesn't matter or is always the same or unknowable; well they lost the debate. How else do we explain the party line going from there are no weak eras and competition levels in slams don't matter to talking about how Novak is dominating because he lacks competition, I mean we haven't seen a drastic change like this since Kaitlynn Jenner killed Bruce.

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Post by bogbrush on Thu 07 Apr 2016, 8:13 am

Born Slippy wrote:
bogbrush wrote:
Born Slippy wrote:No it doesn't. It reflects very positively on Federer. He has managed to maintain the hunger, desire and fitness to keep himself very close to his peak level. I've shown previously that his record against younger guys he played against in his mid to late 20s is more or less identical to his combined record against them more recently. The Federer of today would, in my view, still easily be able to dominate 04-06.

That's not to say that I don't share concerns over the guys in the 22-26 age group. They clearly are a weak cohort. However, Federer of today would be at or near the top in any era - it's a bizarre stick for fans of Federer to seek to beat them with.
Really? I guess guys in the last few years who've beaten him, like Cilic, Kyriagos, Seppi, Monfils, Isner, Ramos-Vanolis, etc. are all better than the guys who Federer routinely trounced in his pomp.

Honestly, facts always come in handy in these discussions.

Yes, you are right, all of those guys have dominated him recently. Oh no, wait a second, they have one-off victories mixed in with getting routinely trounced by him. Is that dissimilar to Volandri, Gasquet, Del Potro, Canas (twice!) and Blake who got wins over him during his mid 20s?

Fed isn't quite as good now but the dip in his standard is, in my view, relatively small. That said, no way would Fed 2015 lose to Canas or Volandri. He's learnt how to deal with that sort of player.

The only defeat I think would look totally out of place in his peak years would be Seppi in a slam. However, I do suspect there was something up with him health wise in that match. It was just as much an outlier in 2014-15 as it would have been in 2004-05.
Yes, and how many 'one-off' victories did guys have over him in 2005 or 2006?

This is like hearing how he was fine & dandy in the Summer of 2008, yet lost at the Olympics to his personal bunny, James Blake.
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Post by Guest on Thu 07 Apr 2016, 8:39 am

Won the debate?

This whole thing was born out of why did he win IW. The lack of competition was mentioned, bar all accounts a rather blanketed statement I know. Then we get "you said Weak Era" ner ner. So we are comparing an argument of 3 years being dismissed to 1 tournament? Economies of scale dear boy. It's sensationalised sentiments like that which gave birth to Newscorp!

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Post by hawkeye on Thu 07 Apr 2016, 8:54 am

Laugh Djokovic's competition is of course weaker. Trying to make out that Federer is playing as well at 34 as he was in his 20's and pretending that Rafa hasn't slumped in form and that it hasn't helped Djokovic is laughable. Djokovic would always have been expected to beat the likes of Raonic, Kei and Murray. Even old Fed and out of form Rafa thrashed these players last time they played. If they are the height of Djokovics competition then of course it is easy pickings. I never watched any of these finals because the outcome was predictable.

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Post by CaledonianCraig on Thu 07 Apr 2016, 9:21 am

legendkillarV2 wrote:Won the debate?

This whole thing was born out of why did he win IW. The lack of competition was mentioned, bar all accounts a rather blanketed statement I know. Then we get "you said Weak Era" ner ner. So we are comparing an argument of 3 years being dismissed to 1 tournament? Economies of scale dear boy. It's sensationalised sentiments like that which gave birth to Newscorp!

It goes deeper than that though. Negativity is rife and has been about tennis for a few months now. Multiple threads about no youngsters coming through and stuff bemoaning Murray reaching the Aussie Open Final despite not being at his best and on top of that posters harping on about Federer's prowess at his age also denigrating the current period. Hardly, smacks of positivity about men's tennis just now.

This bickering could easily be stopped with a universal agreement by all tennis fans of all tennis players. That being that tennis going through periodic dips in standards or in-form tennis players be that when Federer ruled the roost or Nadal or Djokovic. On top of that those players can only beat those in front of them and in the long run of their careers everything evens itself out.
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Post by Guest on Thu 07 Apr 2016, 9:47 am

CaledonianCraig wrote:
legendkillarV2 wrote:Won the debate?

This whole thing was born out of why did he win IW. The lack of competition was mentioned, bar all accounts a rather blanketed statement I know. Then we get "you said Weak Era" ner ner. So we are comparing an argument of 3 years being dismissed to 1 tournament? Economies of scale dear boy. It's sensationalised sentiments like that which gave birth to Newscorp!

It goes deeper than that though. Negativity is rife and has been about tennis for a few months now. Multiple threads about no youngsters coming through and stuff bemoaning Murray reaching the Aussie Open Final despite not being at his best and on top of that posters harping on about Federer's prowess at his age also denigrating the current period. Hardly, smacks of positivity about men's tennis just now.

This bickering could easily be stopped with a universal agreement by all tennis fans of all tennis players. That being that tennis going through periodic dips in standards or in-form tennis players be that when Federer ruled the roost or Nadal or Djokovic. On top of that those players can only beat those in front of them and in the long run of their careers everything evens itself out.

Why can't people make negative observations about the game?

Settling for mediocrity is what kills quality. Simple as that really.

I don't think people would take immediate issue with Djokovic dominating, IF there were signs that beyond that there were players who would take up the mantle. We have seen Dimitrov/Raonic/Nishikori in a kind way come through and not really kick on to be 'The New Breed' and because of that people's expectations are lower for the next 'New Breed'

People are sitting on the side of caution. Look at Kyrgios at Wimbledon in 2014. A breakout moment in his career. What has he done since? We are coming up to nearly 2 years since that result and he hasn't backed it up as such.

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Post by CaledonianCraig on Thu 07 Apr 2016, 10:16 am

legendkillarV2 wrote:
CaledonianCraig wrote:
legendkillarV2 wrote:Won the debate?

This whole thing was born out of why did he win IW. The lack of competition was mentioned, bar all accounts a rather blanketed statement I know. Then we get "you said Weak Era" ner ner. So we are comparing an argument of 3 years being dismissed to 1 tournament? Economies of scale dear boy. It's sensationalised sentiments like that which gave birth to Newscorp!

It goes deeper than that though. Negativity is rife and has been about tennis for a few months now. Multiple threads about no youngsters coming through and stuff bemoaning Murray reaching the Aussie Open Final despite not being at his best and on top of that posters harping on about Federer's prowess at his age also denigrating the current period. Hardly, smacks of positivity about men's tennis just now.

This bickering could easily be stopped with a universal agreement by all tennis fans of all tennis players. That being that tennis going through periodic dips in standards or in-form tennis players be that when Federer ruled the roost or Nadal or Djokovic. On top of that those players can only beat those in front of them and in the long run of their careers everything evens itself out.

Why can't people make negative observations about the game?

Settling for mediocrity is what kills quality. Simple as that really.

I don't think people would take immediate issue with Djokovic dominating, IF there were signs that beyond that there were players who would take up the mantle. We have seen Dimitrov/Raonic/Nishikori in a kind way come through and not really kick on to be 'The New Breed' and because of that people's expectations are lower for the next 'New Breed'

People are sitting on the side of caution. Look at Kyrgios at Wimbledon in 2014. A breakout moment in his career. What has he done since? We are coming up to nearly 2 years since that result and he hasn't backed it up as such.

You see that post in itself sums up my point. It is more than negative observations. Face it - it is a view point that you are not happy with where tennis is just now. Why? Normally, those emotions emanate from dis-satisfaction with things in men's tennis as they stand. All people need to say is admit they aren't happy with standards just now just as people have said standards weren't great in the early 2000s. Fluctuations happen and that is the core point here. Sadly, people refuse to admit it happens.
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