Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

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Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by lydian on Tue 17 May 2016, 3:33 pm

Thread to discuss the top to bottom guys chances, prep, ranking pts, news, comparisons, etc.

Summary of everyone’s predictions so far...

Henman Bill
Djokovic 52 %
Nadal 20 %
Murray 10%
Wawrinka 4 %
Nishikori 4 %
Federer 4 %
Others 6% (18% non top 3)

Born slippy

Djokovic 70%
Nadal ?%
Murray ?%
Other ?%

It Must Be Love
Djokovic 73%
Nadal ?%
Murray ?%
Others ?%

Belovedluckyboy
Djokovic 40%
Nadal 30%
Murray 25%
Others 5%

Nore Staat

Djokovic 60 %
Nadal 20 %
Wawrinka 8 %
Murray 8 %
Rest of field 4 % (12% non top 3)

Banbrotam
Djokovic 35%
Nadal 30%
Murray 30%
Others 5%

socal
Djokovic 50%
Nadal 20%
Murray 15%
Wawrinka 5%
Others 10% (25% non top 3)

Lydian
Djokovic 40%
Nadal 25%
Murray 25%
Others 10%

Mad for Chelsea
Djokovic 45%
Nadal 22.5%
Murray 22.5%
Nishikori 4.5%
Wawrinka 4.5%
Others 1% (10% non top 3)

HMM
Djokovic 40%
Nadal 20%
Murray 30%
Others 10%

Guest 82
Djokovic 40%
Nadal 25%
Murray 30%
Others 5%

Barrystar
Djokovic 45%
Nadal 25%
Murray 25%
Others 5%

Summerblues
Djokovic 50%
Nadal 25%
Murray 15%
Others 10%


Averages so far: - posted in OP above also.
Djokovic 49%
Nadal 24%
Murray 20%
Others ~10%


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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by lydian on Tue 17 May 2016, 3:39 pm

Oh and this is what started the recent spate of posts on the Rome thread (thanks Amrit...!), feel free to continue on...

It Must Be Love wrote:Djokovic will be fine, he'll win the French comfortably imo.
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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by lydian on Tue 17 May 2016, 3:42 pm

HM Murdock wrote:
Henman Bill wrote:Novak Djokovic 51 % - about right
Rafael Nadal 18 % - I would have guessed more like 20-25%
Andy Murray 13 % - I would have thought 7-10%.
You think that Djokovic is 5-7 times more likely to win than Murray?

I think the odds being quoted for Murray are surprisingly long. I think he's got a great chance. I'd personally say he has a better chance than Rafa (depending on the draw, of course).

I agree...I'd almost have it
40% Djokovic
25% Nadal
25% Murray
10% someone else
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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Calder106 on Tue 17 May 2016, 3:47 pm

Well if true it could make a big difference to the draw depending on when he makes it official. If before the draw Nadal would move up to 4th seed and I would suspect Novak, Andy and Stan would breath a sigh of relief at not having the prospect of meeting him in the QF. However if after the draw presumably a lucky loser would get a place and that quarter would open up. Think that is correct.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by HM Murdock on Tue 17 May 2016, 3:48 pm

Sad news about Federer (if true).

On a purely practical level though, if he's hurting, I hope he doesn't play. Having the #3 seed impaired and an in-form Rafa at #5 will make the draw very imbalanced.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Mad for Chelsea on Tue 17 May 2016, 3:50 pm

I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Feds didn't play. He looked rather awful in Rome, and unless his back has got much better since then, can't see much point in him playing TBH. Better to rest some more, and try to get fit for the grass where he'll have more impact. You do wonder if age is finally catching up with him: first the knee, then the back (again), signs that Feds may no longer be able to defy Father Time.

So chances. Well the three favourites by a mile are Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. OK only one of those three has won it, but really they've been the form players on clay this year by some distance. Wawrinka won it last year of course, but is in no sort of form whatsoever this season, didn't do anything in any of the warm-ups. He could go on a hot streak, but would consider it highly unlikely at this point (let's not forget he's no spring chicken, so maybe he's also getting old). Nishikori has been the fourth best player on clay this year, but I struggle to see him winning the tournament, simply because I don't think he can beat two of Djokovic, Nadal and Murray back to back, which he'd probably have to do (maybe even all three).

Right now, I'd go something like
Djokovic 45% - fairly clear favourite, but not playing his best, so not overwhelmingly odds-on
Murray 22.5% - a bit draw-dependent: think he'll struggle to beat Nadal and Djokovic back-to-back, but if he can avoid that as a SF-F run he has a chance.
Nadal 22.5% - think his best chance is to land on the opposite side to Djokovic, work his way past Murray, and hope the pressure of the occasion gets to the Serb in the final, seems to be struggling mentally against Djokovic at the moment.
Nishikori 4.5% - would need the draw to open up
Wawrinka 4.5% - needs to find some form from somewhere, but can do so, as seen in the past.
Rest of Field 1% - you can never rule out an upset, but it's too early for Thiem IMO, Feds is injured and hasn't been a threat on clay for a while, Goffin lacks the big weapons against the top 3, Berdych out of form, etc. just can't see it.

The draw could change everything of course. If it looks like the Rome one, then Murray would shoot straight up to say 30% with Djokovic and Nadal both losing a bit.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by HM Murdock on Tue 17 May 2016, 3:51 pm

lydian wrote:
I agree...I'd almost have it
40% Djokovic
25% Nadal
25% Murray
10% someone else
I had it similar on the other thread:

40% Djokovic
30% Murray
20% Nadal
10% Someone else

I seem to be out on my own with Murray. I think he's looking great - definitely ahead of Rafa and not too far behind Novak.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Mad for Chelsea on Tue 17 May 2016, 3:55 pm

If going on form then Murray should rank higher, but for me the issue is his lack of clay court pedigree compared to the other two. Djokovic has loads of Masters, and several FO finals (equally numerous semis), Nadal of course is the greatest clay courter of all time. Murray by contrast has a couple of Masters, and three semis (all lost to the above two, only one of them close with one an absolute thrashing). Of course, Murray has done so much better the last couple of years, but there's always a nagging thought going "Murray on clay? Nope" in the back of my mind.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by HM Murdock on Tue 17 May 2016, 3:58 pm

^I think we can cast Murray's clay track record aside. He's a different player on the surface these days.

I also thought I saw hints of the Lendl-era swagger about him in Rome.

He's in a good place.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Henman Bill on Tue 17 May 2016, 4:05 pm

When I said Murray and Rafa's odds I didn't think to take into account the seeding positions. I think Murray is going to seeded 2, right.

So now I think about it, I said 20-25% for Rafa, say 20% to account for the lower seeding.
Murray I said 7-10%, say 10% to account for the seeding.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Henman Bill on Tue 17 May 2016, 4:08 pm

I would add, I missed more or less the whole clay court season, just following results and occassional short highlights on you tube. We moved house a few weeks ago and cable TV is still pending, and I gave up on dodgy internet streams years ago.

It's interesting to hear the views of those who have actually been watching the matches recently.

I do believe you make almost a good an informed estimate just looking at the results though, if you take into account who beat who and the set scores.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Henman Bill on Tue 17 May 2016, 4:10 pm

The thing with Murray is the trajectory it's as if he's peaking for the French Open this year. On the other hand, of the three favourites, he's the one most likely to get caught out in say R4 if he dips in form and someone plays a blinder.

He's also Scottish after all. If we get 30 degree heat we can forget it...OK, that was (mostly) a joke before anyone says anything.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Henman Bill on Tue 17 May 2016, 4:14 pm

Sorry I'm waffling on a lot here. I really should go back to work.

But the other question on Murray is yes in masters he did well this clay court season. Just like throughout his career he has won 40% or so of the masters title that each of Novak and Rafa has. But at slam level he has more like 15% of what they have.

When it really comes down it, is that a statistic that we think is relevant?

Debatable.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by lydian on Tue 17 May 2016, 4:16 pm

Great pundits think alike HMM Wink
Yes I agree that Murray has a good chance, let's not forget it took Novak 5 sets to beat him last year in SF. Murray has really improved on the crushed brick. I would have put him ahead of Nadal but for the way Nadal played vs Novak and knowing he has the talent to move through more gears too.

Agreed on Fed, he's probably thinking about Wimbledon and Rio, rather than flare the back and miss both those for a surface he's not likely to succeed on anyway.
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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by socal1976 on Tue 17 May 2016, 4:22 pm

I'd like the record to show that no Djokovic fans are predicting this comfortable or easy RG win for Djokovic. Djokovic fans are typically quite well balanced and well informed, we are not prone to the irrational and fawning hero worship of some.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by socal1976 on Tue 17 May 2016, 4:23 pm

By the way I said Novak is 50/50 interesting most people see his chances in 40-50 percent range and the bookmakers are pretty close to those numbers as well. Sad that Fed isn't going to play, but probably the right decision on his part. I hope he gets his physical issues under control.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by lydian on Tue 17 May 2016, 4:28 pm

Good analysis above MfC by the way...and carving it fine with the %s!
Goffin is an interesting one and a dark horse, although I admittedly carry a candle for the guy since I first watched him play Fed at RG and saw how ridiculously early he could take the ball. Majorly talented - so if it's hot and dry, making the ball fly, he could be dangerous as can make angles with high balls and take it really early to take away time. But if cold/damp then don't see it happening as doesn't have the power to hit through the top guys.
Kyrgios? Nah...he's too up and down and last 7 matches and big guys don't tend to go deep at RG very often.
Stan? Nah...too content to dine out on 2 slams now.
Can't see anyone else making a move...
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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by socal1976 on Tue 17 May 2016, 4:31 pm

It has to be one of the big three favorites this year in this order

1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Murray

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by lydian on Tue 17 May 2016, 4:37 pm

Yes likely but I see it more
1. Djokovic
2= Murray
2= Nadal

Re Fed, probably thinking about saving himself for Wimb and Rio, than risk RG and write off his 2 preferred surfaces...grass and fast DecoTurf.
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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Guest82 on Tue 17 May 2016, 4:39 pm

A lot depends on the draw. If it opens up for Murray like last week, then I make him joint favourite with Djokovic.

Obviously if they were to swap places in that draw, then Djokovic would be very big favourite.

Pre-draw:
Djokovic 40%
Murray 30%
Rafa 25%
Someone Else 5%

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by barrystar on Tue 17 May 2016, 4:44 pm

I have it in this order:
* Djoko is my warmish favourite 45%


* Nadal is a real threat on clay again and a genuine possible winner, but not the man to beat any more 25%
* Murray is also a genuine possible winner 25%

The rest - 5%

The Draw may be important - Nadal tends to get better and more confident as he goes deeper.  I'd say his best chance is to be drawn vs. Murray in the SF, his worst chance would be another QF draw vs. Djoko.


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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by socal1976 on Tue 17 May 2016, 4:45 pm

I wouldn't make Murray equal. People always get too high on these guys after a big rivalry win and a single tournament. Murray is a much improved clay courter at this stage of his career but would I favor him in a five set match against either of the other two guys, well no I wouldn't. Also is Murray less susceptible to the odd loss to one of the rest of the field, no he isn't. So I don't see how despite his recent improvement on the surface how I could have him equal to Nadal.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by lydian on Tue 17 May 2016, 4:54 pm

Not even though he took Novak to 5 sets last year and is arguing playing better this year on clay? (on slower RG like clay, not Madrid)
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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by socal1976 on Tue 17 May 2016, 5:00 pm

No not even now or in light of their last match. If Novak plays Murray and lets say it isn't a case of one or the other being ground down by a brutal draw and the match isn't in a wind storm, then I would favor Djokovic at least 75 percent of the time. Look at their recent H2H going back for some time now. Plus while Novak has dropped his form he is the guy that has won the last 4 of 5 slams. So Murray is not the favorite in the H2h against either Novak or Nadal at RG, and he is the guy that out of the three would be more susceptible to a loss to another guy on the tour.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 17 May 2016, 5:06 pm

What are the odds on Jeremy Chardy? Sounds a bit like Jamie Vardy.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by CaledonianCraig on Tue 17 May 2016, 5:20 pm

socal1976 wrote:No not even now or in light of their last match. If Novak plays Murray and lets say it isn't a case of one or the other being ground down by a brutal draw and the match isn't in a wind storm, then I would favor Djokovic at least 75 percent of the time. Look at their recent H2H going back for some time now. Plus while Novak has dropped his form he is the guy that has won the last 4 of 5 slams. So Murray is not the favorite in the H2h against either Novak or Nadal at RG, and he is the guy that out of the three would be more susceptible to a loss to another guy on the tour.

Normally, I would agree with that summary but after this clay season some points are flawed. Firstly, it is only Novak who has bombed out against a lesser opponent in an early round (Vesely at Monte Carlo) and he has looked more susceptible to an early exit as well what with his struggles against Robert and Bellucci in Rome whereas Murray never dropped a set. And H2H for Murray V Djokovic on clay this season is 1-1. And I'd put more stock in recent stuff than what has gone before as it better represents current form.
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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Haddie-nuff on Tue 17 May 2016, 5:39 pm

I agree with what CC said on the other thread.
Given his current form, and the fact that he has never won this tournament. leaves a ? mark.
The pressure now is on him to do so.
He might be fav on paper but..and here lies the crux .. can he.
Its not about whether he is capable, sure he is... but can he ??

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by TRuffin on Tue 17 May 2016, 5:51 pm

Pagnini says Fed is still going to Paris to test the back so hasn't ruled out tourney yet. clearly he is still hurting though.
Some long term insiders from his website that know Luthi and are usually spot on are saying that the back is a compensation injury which I think is fairly easy to figure out. His knee is still hurting especially on serve, so Fed has been consciously or sub consciously altering his movement slightly to lessen the jarring, while his muscle memory is still trying to work with the old movement. and as anyone who has back issues knows- that is a bad combo. Until he can get it all sorted out, prob no way to play freely or without creating more pain.

At this point, I don't think even success on grass is feasible.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Haddie-nuff on Tue 17 May 2016, 5:53 pm

And whilst he has this niggling at he back of his mind.. whether he actually means it or not.. he is putting pressure on himself.

“It is not a surprise that Rafa titled in Monte Carlo, He has already won many titles there. It is true that he had problems with winning big titles in the last two years, but he is still is the best in history on clay. I have a lot of respect for him and I see him as a favorite in every tournament on clay, including the French Open,” Djokovic was quoted by B92.net as saying.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 17 May 2016, 5:59 pm

How does saying he see Rafa as 'a favorite' put pressure on Djoko? It's just stating the obvious.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Haddie-nuff on Tue 17 May 2016, 6:04 pm

picard ffffffffffffffffforget it !!

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by lydian on Tue 17 May 2016, 6:10 pm

Thanks for the intel TR, good to have more info. That back must be playing up badly...I heard he did it tweaking the bath taps for his kids and twisting awkwardly of all things earlier in the year. Who knows...but lets hope he can get over this to play a good slam...either at RG or SW19 or OG.

Socal, I think with all the pressure and Murray's rise in form, and Rafa's too - which all increase the pressure - that Djokovic's chances are less than 50%. It doesn't matter his H2H with Murray or Rafa pre-RG...this is the big one and he's going to be on tenderhooks all fortnight.
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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by socal1976 on Tue 17 May 2016, 6:31 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:
socal1976 wrote:No not even now or in light of their last match. If Novak plays Murray and lets say it isn't a case of one or the other being ground down by a brutal draw and the match isn't in a wind storm, then I would favor Djokovic at least 75 percent of the time. Look at their recent H2H going back for some time now. Plus while Novak has dropped his form he is the guy that has won the last 4 of 5 slams. So Murray is not the favorite in the H2h against either Novak or Nadal at RG, and he is the guy that out of the three would be more susceptible to a loss to another guy on the tour.

Normally, I would agree with that summary but after this clay season some points are flawed. Firstly, it is only Novak who has bombed out against a lesser opponent in an early round (Vesely at Monte Carlo) and he has looked more susceptible to an early exit as well what with his struggles against Robert and Bellucci in Rome whereas Murray never dropped a set. And H2H for Murray V Djokovic on clay this season is 1-1. And I'd put more stock in recent stuff than what has gone before as it better represents current form.

I mean by your logic then everyone who wins Cincy should be the form horse for the USO, but there really isn't much of a correlation. There is a reason these tournaments are seen as warm ups for the slams. Murray won and has played well on clay, but Novak has won a masters and reached another final in three tournaments hardly a case where form favors Murray clearly anyway. So even on current form, its not a clear cut edge for Murray. Didn't Murray lose a match to Djokovic at Madrid as well? And then if you bring up recent track record of oh the last 3 months, 6 months, 12 months etc. then it really doesn't cut in favor of Murray.

Sure Novak has the most pressure and it could play a role. But to think that he will crumble in the face of pressure in a manner that turns around what Murrays like 2-14 or whatever h2h Murray has with Novak is not logical. Sure Murray has a chance to beat him and win, I would make him third favorite you guys make him second. I just don't see how you can extrapolate so much about a windy and rainy match in Rome.

In regards to Nadal it is different you know Nadal has some voodoo and pedigree that adds to the pressure on this surface, I still think a large enough gap exists that Novak can win against Nadal and should be the favorite in that h2h as well, as I don't think anyone disputes.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by socal1976 on Tue 17 May 2016, 6:50 pm

lydian wrote:Thanks for the intel TR, good to have more info. That back must be playing up badly...I heard he did it tweaking the bath taps for his kids and twisting awkwardly of all things earlier in the year. Who knows...but lets hope he can get over this to play a good slam...either at RG or SW19 or OG.

Socal, I think with all the pressure and Murray's rise in form, and Rafa's too - which all increase the pressure - that Djokovic's chances are less than 50%. It doesn't matter his H2H with Murray or Rafa pre-RG...this is the big one and he's going to be on tenderhooks all fortnight.

Ok, all those things I agree with, I see him about a 50/50 chance. He has been a historically dominant number 1, and had great slam success, even at this tournament he has been right there in the final and semi and hasn't exactly been blown out. So again, you see him as a 40 percent favorite, yeah maybe. Its all hypothetical, I just wouldn't be betting against Novak in too many big events in recent years despite his demons. I mean he has been able to wrestle with demons before successfully and come out on top, why do you assume he will always fail or choke. My experience those that are very close and keep giving themselves chances, and are as talented as Novak usually break through. Maybe not, that is sports, whether it happens or doesn't I am fine either way as a fan. So despite discounting all his chances, I don't see him being quite as big a pressurized basket case this fortnight as maybe the rest. Sure he has added pressure, sure it will make it harder, but he has some experience in that department. No one has the big match experience he has or at least no one has more big match experience.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by CaledonianCraig on Tue 17 May 2016, 7:21 pm

socal1976 wrote:
CaledonianCraig wrote:
socal1976 wrote:No not even now or in light of their last match. If Novak plays Murray and lets say it isn't a case of one or the other being ground down by a brutal draw and the match isn't in a wind storm, then I would favor Djokovic at least 75 percent of the time. Look at their recent H2H going back for some time now. Plus while Novak has dropped his form he is the guy that has won the last 4 of 5 slams. So Murray is not the favorite in the H2h against either Novak or Nadal at RG, and he is the guy that out of the three would be more susceptible to a loss to another guy on the tour.

Normally, I would agree with that summary but after this clay season some points are flawed. Firstly, it is only Novak who has bombed out against a lesser opponent in an early round (Vesely at Monte Carlo) and he has looked more susceptible to an early exit as well what with his struggles against Robert and Bellucci in Rome whereas Murray never dropped a set. And H2H for Murray V Djokovic on clay this season is 1-1. And I'd put more stock in recent stuff than what has gone before as it better represents current form.

I mean by your logic then everyone who wins Cincy should be the form horse for the USO, but there really isn't much of a correlation. There is a reason these tournaments are seen as warm ups for the slams. Murray won and has played well on clay, but Novak has won a masters and reached another final in three tournaments hardly a case where form favors Murray clearly anyway. So even on current form, its not a clear cut edge for Murray. Didn't Murray lose a match to Djokovic at Madrid as well? And then if you bring up recent track record of oh the last 3 months, 6 months, 12 months etc. then it really doesn't cut in favor of Murray.

Sure Novak has the most pressure and it could play a role. But to think that he will crumble in the face of pressure in a manner that turns around what Murrays like 2-14 or whatever h2h Murray has with Novak is not logical. Sure Murray has a chance to beat him and win, I would make him third favorite you guys make him second. I just don't see how you can extrapolate so much about a windy and rainy match in Rome.

In regards to Nadal it is different you know Nadal has some voodoo and pedigree that adds to the pressure on this surface, I still think a large enough gap exists that Novak can win against Nadal and should be the favorite in that h2h as well, as I don't think anyone disputes.

We are talking red stuff form here - nothing else since RG is being played on clay. Going on that surface then Djokovic is the only one of him, Murray and Nadal to suffer a real shock exit (Vesely) in the Second Round at Monte Carlo. I did say to haddie nuff at the time that was something and nothing and was prepared to see it as an anomaly. However, Novak then toiled throughout Rome as well dropping sets against players you'd normally see him marmalize (and one of those was a bagel). I think his exit V Vesely was his first defeat so early for three years or something and first against one ranked so lowly for even longer. The bagel he suffered was also the first he had suffered for many years and then his defeat V Murray in straight sets. All of those cannot add up to anomaly as they span over a month or so and all on clay. Yes Djoko goes to RG as favourite but I would look elsewhere for better value for money is my point.


Last edited by CaledonianCraig on Tue 17 May 2016, 7:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 17 May 2016, 7:22 pm

Haddie-nuff wrote:picard ffffffffffffffffforget it !!

I was just asking a question.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Henman Bill on Tue 17 May 2016, 7:25 pm

Krygios might make a move at some point - just not here. Maybe Wimbledon or US Open.

Federer, if he does withdraw, hope he will be fit for Wimbledon. If so he can be practicing on grass while the others are slugging it out for 4 and 5 sets.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by socal1976 on Tue 17 May 2016, 7:38 pm

Henman Bill wrote:Krygios might make a move at some point - just not here. Maybe Wimbledon or US Open.

Federer, if he does withdraw, hope he will be fit for Wimbledon. If so he can be practicing on grass while the others are slugging it out for 4 and 5 sets.

At this rate Kyrgios might be a bigger favorite at Wimbeldon than Federer. His serve is untouchable on grass, plus unlike big servers like Raonic and karlovic he can move well enough of the grass to threaten in some return games. Plus his flat BH is actually quite a weapon on the grass as well. I think he is going to be maybe as high as third or fourth favorite for Wimbeldon.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by socal1976 on Tue 17 May 2016, 7:42 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:
socal1976 wrote:
CaledonianCraig wrote:
socal1976 wrote:No not even now or in light of their last match. If Novak plays Murray and lets say it isn't a case of one or the other being ground down by a brutal draw and the match isn't in a wind storm, then I would favor Djokovic at least 75 percent of the time. Look at their recent H2H going back for some time now. Plus while Novak has dropped his form he is the guy that has won the last 4 of 5 slams. So Murray is not the favorite in the H2h against either Novak or Nadal at RG, and he is the guy that out of the three would be more susceptible to a loss to another guy on the tour.

Normally, I would agree with that summary but after this clay season some points are flawed. Firstly, it is only Novak who has bombed out against a lesser opponent in an early round (Vesely at Monte Carlo) and he has looked more susceptible to an early exit as well what with his struggles against Robert and Bellucci in Rome whereas Murray never dropped a set. And H2H for Murray V Djokovic on clay this season is 1-1. And I'd put more stock in recent stuff than what has gone before as it better represents current form.

I mean by your logic then everyone who wins Cincy should be the form horse for the USO, but there really isn't much of a correlation. There is a reason these tournaments are seen as warm ups for the slams. Murray won and has played well on clay, but Novak has won a masters and reached another final in three tournaments hardly a case where form favors Murray clearly anyway. So even on current form, its not a clear cut edge for Murray. Didn't Murray lose a match to Djokovic at Madrid as well? And then if you bring up recent track record of oh the last 3 months, 6 months, 12 months etc. then it really doesn't cut in favor of Murray.

Sure Novak has the most pressure and it could play a role. But to think that he will crumble in the face of pressure in a manner that turns around what Murrays like 2-14 or whatever h2h Murray has with Novak is not logical. Sure Murray has a chance to beat him and win, I would make him third favorite you guys make him second. I just don't see how you can extrapolate so much about a windy and rainy match in Rome.

In regards to Nadal it is different you know Nadal has some voodoo and pedigree that adds to the pressure on this surface, I still think a large enough gap exists that Novak can win against Nadal and should be the favorite in that h2h as well, as I don't think anyone disputes.

We are talking red stuff form here - nothing else since RG is being played on clay. Going on that surface then Djokovic is the only one of him, Murray and Nadal to suffer a real shock exit (Vesely) in the Second Round at Monte Carlo. I did say to haddie nuff at the time that was something and nothing and was prepared to see it as an anomaly. However, Novak then toiled throughout Rome as well dropping sets against players you'd normally see him marmalize (and one of those was a bagel). I think his exit V Vesely was his first defeat so early for three years or something and first against one ranked so lowly for even longer. The bagel he suffered was also the first he had suffered for many years and then his defeat V Murray in straight sets. All of those cannot add up to anomaly as they span over a month or so and all on clay. Yes Djoko goes to RG as favourite but I would look elsewhere for better value for money is my point.

Again even if you want to go on redstuff Novak has two finals and a masters title and is 1-1 against Murray, if there is a difference between his form and Murray's its not much of an advantage. I agree he has looked scratchy in terms of form coming into the tournament. So? Plenty of times he has won a slam even when he looked wobbly in the early rounds. Plenty of times he has looked like the giant of colossus coming into RG and hasn't won. Form is one indicator but it isn't all determining things like track record and pedigree also should get analyzed. And even you just look at form on the redstuff his form is worse than it was before but no worse than Nadal's or Murray's current form that supposedly he should be scared about.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by CaledonianCraig on Tue 17 May 2016, 8:01 pm

The facts we have as I see them are:-

Djokovic has never won at RG and in previous years he has gone there in better shape after better clay court seasons.

Mental toughness is his forte but in recent weeks that has been eratic.

Anomalies such as early loss against a player ranked so lowly, bagelled by a jiurneyman and straight sets defeat and first loss on clay to Murray all ends up to question marks against where Djokovic is right now.

As I said - still the favourite but i am sure all Novak fans here will be less hopeful of success at RG than they were before the clay court season started.
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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Guest on Tue 17 May 2016, 8:02 pm

With Stats you have to go with relevant past results and then take into account apparent recent form.  With Roland Garros you have to go with past recent Slam performance (up to 7 best of 5 set matches spread over two weeks), then past Roland Garros form, then more recent Master's tournaments (up to 5 best of 3 set matches over a one week period), and also take into account their points rankings, and take into account head to head performances over the past few years.  Adding in gut instinct in what is going to happen has to take a low priority in estimating probabilities.

Taking all this into account (and assuming Federer is unfit) my probabilities are:
Djokovic: 60 %
Nadal: 20 %
Wawrinka 8 %
Murray: 8 %
Rest of field: 4 %

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by socal1976 on Tue 17 May 2016, 8:13 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:The facts we have as I see them are:-

Djokovic has never won at RG and in previous years he has gone there in better shape after better clay court seasons.

Mental toughness is his forte but in recent weeks that has been eratic.

Anomalies such as early loss against a player ranked so lowly, bagelled by a jiurneyman and straight sets defeat and first loss on clay to Murray all ends up to question marks against where Djokovic is right now.

As I said - still the favourite but i am sure all Novak fans here will be less hopeful of success at RG than they were before the clay court season started.

I actually don't see it much different than you, it is a matter of discounting or not discounting a few more percentage points up or down. I agree the factors you point to are relevant for discussion. Its a difference to of how much you want to weight one factor or the other.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Haddie-nuff on Tue 17 May 2016, 8:15 pm

Nore Staat wrote:With Stats you have to go with relevant past results and then take into account apparent recent form.  With Roland Garros you have to go with past recent Slam performance (up to 7 best of 5 set matches spread over two weeks), then past Roland Garros form, then more recent Master's tournaments (up to 5 best of 3 set matches over a one week period), and also take into account their points rankings, and take into account head to head performances over the past few years.  Adding in gut instinct in what is going to happen has to take a low priority in estimating probabilities.

Taking all this into account (and assuming Federer is unfit) my probabilities are:
Djokovic: 60 %
Nadal: 20 %
Wawrinka 8 %
Murray: 8 %
Rest of field: 4 %



“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”
― Mark Twain

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by CaledonianCraig on Tue 17 May 2016, 8:16 pm

socal1976 wrote:
CaledonianCraig wrote:The facts we have as I see them are:-

Djokovic has never won at RG and in previous years he has gone there in better shape after better clay court seasons.

Mental toughness is his forte but in recent weeks that has been eratic.

Anomalies such as early loss against a player ranked so lowly, bagelled by a jiurneyman and straight sets defeat and first loss on clay to Murray all ends up to question marks against where Djokovic is right now.

As I said - still the favourite but i am sure all Novak fans here will be less hopeful of success at RG than they were before the clay court season started.

I actually don't see it much different than you, it is a matter of discounting or not discounting a few more percentage points up or down. I agree the factors you point to are relevant for discussion. Its a difference to of how much you want to weight one factor or the other.

Of course We could do similar assessments on every player or contender and look at pros and cons as every player has them.
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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Guest on Tue 17 May 2016, 8:25 pm

Haddie-nuff wrote: ... “Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”
― Mark Twain
I reckon Mark Twain couldn't tell a Semi-Western Forehand Grip from a Continental Forehand Grip  Ok!

"The paradox of probabilities is that the end result is not a probability".   Nore Staat 2016.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Haddie-nuff on Tue 17 May 2016, 8:28 pm

Nore Staat wrote:
Haddie-nuff wrote: ... “Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”
― Mark Twain
I reckon Mark Twain couldn't tell a Semi-Western Forehand Grip from a Western Forehand Grip  Ok!

"The paradox of probabilities is that the end result is not a probability".   Nore Staat 2016.

Well that's one explanation anyway Doh

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 17 May 2016, 8:31 pm

Nore Staat wrote:
Haddie-nuff wrote: ... “Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”
― Mark Twain
I reckon Mark Twain couldn't tell a Semi-Western Forehand Grip from a Continental Forehand Grip  Ok!

"The paradox of probabilities is that the end result is not a probability".   Nore Staat 2016.

Mark Twain was OK, but I prefer Tennis-see Williams.

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Haddie-nuff on Tue 17 May 2016, 8:33 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
Nore Staat wrote:
Haddie-nuff wrote: ... “Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”
― Mark Twain
I reckon Mark Twain couldn't tell a Semi-Western Forehand Grip from a Continental Forehand Grip  Ok!

"The paradox of probabilities is that the end result is not a probability".   Nore Staat 2016.

Mark Twain was OK, but I prefer Tennis-see Williams.

laughing OK I concede that one... very droll Wink

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Guest on Tue 17 May 2016, 8:34 pm

ditto laughing

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Re: Roland Garros - The 'pre' thread

Post by Danny_1982 on Tue 17 May 2016, 8:55 pm

If Nadal is in Novak's half, then Murray does have a good shot. If Nish is also in Novak's half then even better.

Murray has made great strides on this surface, which I never saw coming. But I still think he would need one or more players to have taken chunks out of Novak for him to beat him in the final. Or hope that Novak feels huge mental pressure, which is not unthinkable.

I would put Rafa above Murray though. He's played very well this clay season. Close to his old self. He was close in level to Novak remember, but just lost the big points. His improvement and unbelievable record on that court earns him second favourite tag for me.

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