Socal's weather theory about the FO

Ok, before you all accuse me of eurobashing, it's my favorite continent to visit. But in this event, draw is huge as is rain delays, almost always happens in this event due to the typical shiiity European weather. After a lifetime in the Cali coast, I loathe your weather and will be in your otherwise spectacular continent from the 23rd till early June. I have allergies and I know my whole face is going to puff up the first week from your humidity and obnoxious pollen content.  Still Milan not a bad place to be in late spring that is for sure. And I do love Italy. Late spring in Paris almost always has big rain delays. Wimby has to but the more grueling and punishing nature of the clay court battle makes weather and draw ultra important. Invariably , in the FO one side of the draw gets screwed because of rain delays forced to wait and then finish the tournament playing 4 out five days or five out of six or seven days.

 And these are no aceing contests. These are brutal exchanges where weight of shot and punishing running do make the conditioning more important in this tourney than in any other. Tennis players train to play everyday but 90-120 minutes a day or conversely to play brutal 5 setters that could last four or more hours EVERY OTHER day. They don't typically encounter (except at RG) a situation where they play 3 hours one day, then go 90 minutes to finish the next day, then go maybe 4 hours the day after that because they started later and had a rain delay.




But in relation to the FO I find it to be the most weather impacted slam. In variably one part of the draw gets royally F'd by the weather. And this becomes exponentially worse because of the physical nature of the play. A bad break with rain and start times and then Novak runs into a player who is fresh late in the tourney who while not favored engages him in a drawn out leg burning contest. Last year it played a role although to be fair the way Stan was striking the fact that Novak played multidays didn't matter much. 

I grew up in a place where it rains about 20 times a year and then it isn't a hard rain so this concept of delaying an outdoor event due to rain is as bizarre concept like drinking warm beer. But my prediction is that weather could play a big role in who wins, especially in light of the wide open situation. In the past Nadal was just so many notches better that this scenario was unlikely. Most of the tournament would be quite easy for him physically. This year with a more even chance the weather and draw will be enormous. Generally, when the snarky Gallic weather gods decide to urinate on Paris match day, if you happen to be playing that day these same gods are generally doing the same thing to your slam chances.

Not all of Europe gets Poopie weather
Im in S.E Spain, 9am and its 22 deg. and rising.
Spain being the top European holiday destination because of its climate

Clearly you've forgotten what the weather was like on 30th May 2009

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/tennis/8075137.stm

Wow ..... that's a long long post socal.

I managed to stick with it right to the end, but can't help wondering whether it is a unique and original  Socal 'theory' - or merely a somewhat circuitous way of stating a few obvious fundamentals ......  

Would I be safe to distil it all as follows .......??

1. As a largely outdoor sport, tennis has always been subject to the vagaries of weather

2. Clay is generally regarded as the most physically demanding of the various playing surfaces

3. Roland Garros is a clay court venue located in a (sometimes) rainy part of the world, thus heightening the potential impact of factors 1& 2

4. The impact on any individual player can vary, according to how the draw pans out

5. If a fan's favourite player is affected adversely by a combination of their position in the draw and the weather, the fan may tend to feel a sense of gross injustice

6. The simple reality however is that these factors (draw + weather) are both entirely random and unpredictable, with the possibility for ANY player to be affected in this way

Oh, and I meant to add ..... things can become a little more complicated when Fognini is involved.

Maybe that should be point number 7 ...... ??

Put very succinctly lags.. it has come to my notice too that the conditions usually affect both sides of the net.

The tournament which has historically most been affected by weather is Wimbledon.. that being because of our typically rotten British summers
Something players have come to expect

Exactly Lags...and if I can add...

+ RG (and Wimb) do not take place at the height of EU summer, indeed RG in late May is 2 months away from peak summer

+ Socal is from California...so yes you're spoilt with sunshine...but USA as a whole is not like that. What if RG was being held in Boston next week - that's more comparable ;-)

+ Similarly, as HN says there are parts of EU that get 320 days of sunshine per year...however, RG is played in Paris not Alicante.

+ USO is often rainy and windy too...I bet more days are lost there than RG. How about asking USO to be moved to a drier spot too...Phoenix do you? Might get a tad hot though.

+ Personally I'd like to see a shift in the slam calendar anyway....AO in March...RG in June, Wimb end of July and USO mid Sept. That would make the best of the weather (and get AO out of the ridiculous Jan. heat).

BTW, the long range forecast for RG isn't hot or dry...

'coz the US Open has never had any issues with rain delays

It is true that RG suffers from the weather sometimes, and it's particularly amusing to then hear the French commentators bleat on about the bad weather at Wimbledon

The problem with RG is not the weather but the weapons-grade incompetence of the organisers.

They know if rain is approaching but, to them, playing a match across two days is less of a problem than the crowd not being able to have a leisurely lunch.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:'coz the US Open has never had any issues with rain delays

It is true that RG suffers from the weather sometimes, and it's particularly amusing to then hear the French commentators bleat on about the bad weather at Wimbledon

Yes...because London is sooooo far away from Paris...all of 213 miles!

Enjoy your hols Lydian its been 31.5 deg today

thanks!
...and I believe its going to be 35c at the weekend!!

Oh dear its gonna be a lonnnnnnnnnnnnnng summer

Yeah, what you guys failed to get though is that in the past with Nadal's dominance it isn't as big a issue as it is with a more open field. Of course USO and Wimby have rain delays, not the same thing though when you have the more physically draining and lengthy battles on a clay court. All the slams have some weather issues but this one, and in particular because of the open field, is going to be particularly sensitive to it. So when the draw comes out, I am automatically checking the forecast.

PS, of its not your cold or rain that bothers me about euro weather, actually when its hot its worse, I hate humidity, body takes a major adjustment period to it.

Then you haven't been to the East coast USA much then...

It's not so much that Europe is humid as that you live in a place so dry that it is relatively humid by comparison. Have you spent much time in the tropics. Broome in Western/Northern Australia for instance - now that was humidity.

I can't handle humidity HB, I am glad Milan is in the mountains. The worst allergies I ever had was when I spent a humid week in Venice, my face was red and puffy the whole time. Constant popping of antihistamines, my hair froing out 70s style. The smell of 2000 years worth of sewage from the canals and harbor I don't think was helping either. Not quite the romantic interlude we envisioned at the time. Of course I know it is because I have spent a lifetime living in a near desert in terms of aridity and most importantly lack of pollen in the air.

lydian wrote:Then you haven't been to the East coast USA much then...

@Lydian yes the east coast has crappy European style weather to. Interestingly, the west coast doesn't get humidity especially at the southern latitudes. The Pacific is a proper ocean, unlike your petite Atlantic, its waters get really deep really fast and its icy cold that is why even coastal areas don't have any humidity. If you go to the beach in Southern CA we are very far south latitude wise but if you jump in the water it is freaking freezing, all of sudden just a hundred yards off coast the bottom just drops out and it could be hundreds of feet deep while you are just off the beach. Now that is a man's ocean, not a glorified warm tub like your effete European Atlantic, an ocean that the pioneers and cowboys of the west could be proud to urinate in.

I do like some of the snarky and dismissive responses though, I really did enjoy them. Just like I enjoyed them when you were denying weak eras only to now claim Djokovic is in one. Or when I was laughed at for golden eras and then like the entire western media steals my line and runs with it, oh that was dismissed to. Or when I said Djokovic was the greatest baseliner ever and people were telling me that Michael Chang was quite superior because he had to do it on fast conditions, yeah that thread was laughed at to. When we see it impacting this event year in and year out and remind you about it then we will see who is laughing.

HM Murdock wrote:The problem with RG is not the weather but the weapons-grade incompetence of the organisers.

They know if rain is approaching but, to them, playing a match across two days is less of a problem than the crowd not being able to have a leisurely lunch.

Yes Murdock the combination of poor weather, scheduling, and tough draw did Novak in last year. And I think if it may do him again this year. Precisely, because of things like how inept and self centered the RG management usually is. Absolutely, they never have done him any favors in terms of scheduling and frankly they don't do any of the male players favors. I mean what is the point of finishing a men's match and then having it come on second after the women's match and doubles who are already playing the next round of matches? In that case the match that didn't finish late last night shouldn't be starting at the end of the next day? But if it is a marquee matchup that they can milk for ratings they won't give a flying F about fairness.

socal1976 wrote:I do like some of the snarky and dismissive responses though, I really did enjoy them. Just like I enjoyed them when you were denying weak eras only to now claim Djokovic is in one. Or when I was laughed at for golden eras and then like the entire western media steals my line and runs with it, oh that was dismissed to. Or when I said Djokovic was the greatest baseliner ever and people were telling me that Michael Chang was quite superior because he had to do it on fast conditions, yeah that thread was laughed at to. When we see it impacting this event year in and year out and remind you about it then we will see who is laughing.

Geez...this is almost pure siege mentality.
Yes we get it socal, you're right about everything and finally the "entire western media" has caught up with your prescience.
All I was doing was talking about the weather, lol.

lydian wrote:

socal1976 wrote:I do like some of the snarky and dismissive responses though, I really did enjoy them. Just like I enjoyed them when you were denying weak eras only to now claim Djokovic is in one. Or when I was laughed at for golden eras and then like the entire western media steals my line and runs with it, oh that was dismissed to. Or when I said Djokovic was the greatest baseliner ever and people were telling me that Michael Chang was quite superior because he had to do it on fast conditions, yeah that thread was laughed at to. When we see it impacting this event year in and year out and remind you about it then we will see who is laughing.

Geez...this is almost pure siege mentality.
Yes we get it socal, you're right about everything and finally the "entire western media" has caught up with your prescience.
All I was doing was talking about the weather, lol.

It is a fair critique to say I can be hyberbolic on occasion to make a point. LOL!

lydian wrote:

socal1976 wrote:I do like some of the snarky and dismissive responses though, I really did enjoy them. Just like I enjoyed them when you were denying weak eras only to now claim Djokovic is in one. Or when I was laughed at for golden eras and then like the entire western media steals my line and runs with it, oh that was dismissed to. Or when I said Djokovic was the greatest baseliner ever and people were telling me that Michael Chang was quite superior because he had to do it on fast conditions, yeah that thread was laughed at to. When we see it impacting this event year in and year out and remind you about it then we will see who is laughing.

Geez...this is almost pure siege mentality.
Yes we get it socal, you're right about everything and finally the "entire western media" has caught up with your prescience.
All I was doing was talking about the weather, lol.

Lydian


Food for thought

Twain’s famous quip “The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco,” too, seems to have been a misquotation. Twain actually quoted another writer who, asked whether he had ever seen such a brutal winter as the icy, stormy one of 1878, replied, “Yes, last summer.” Twain quipped, “I judge he spent his summer in Paris.” The French capital is a notoriously chilly place, except when it’s not. It’s warmer than San Francisco in summer, though, and somehow Twain’s remark was stretched to cover the city in which he once lived and worked.

Isnt San Francisco on the Pacific ???

Haddie-nuff wrote:

lydian wrote:

socal1976 wrote:I do like some of the snarky and dismissive responses though, I really did enjoy them. Just like I enjoyed them when you were denying weak eras only to now claim Djokovic is in one. Or when I was laughed at for golden eras and then like the entire western media steals my line and runs with it, oh that was dismissed to. Or when I said Djokovic was the greatest baseliner ever and people were telling me that Michael Chang was quite superior because he had to do it on fast conditions, yeah that thread was laughed at to. When we see it impacting this event year in and year out and remind you about it then we will see who is laughing.

Geez...this is almost pure siege mentality.
Yes we get it socal, you're right about everything and finally the "entire western media" has caught up with your prescience.
All I was doing was talking about the weather, lol.

Lydian


Food for thought

Twain’s famous quip “The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco,” too, seems to have been a misquotation. Twain actually quoted another writer who, asked whether he had ever seen such a brutal winter as the icy, stormy one of 1878, replied, “Yes, last summer.” Twain quipped, “I judge he spent his summer in Paris.” The French capital is a notoriously chilly place, except when it’s not. It’s warmer than San Francisco in summer, though, and somehow Twain’s remark was stretched to cover the city in which he once lived and worked.

Isnt San Francisco on the Pacific ???

Only until the next big earthquake - then it'll be in the Pacific.

Oh so very droll

All I know it was bliddy cold when I was there... and wet... Ive got the Alcatraz Swimming team T shirt to prove it

Cool that you did the Alcatraz swim, I quite fancied it myself, although I was put off by the fact that you can't actually start the swim from the island itself and have to do it from the sea nearby.

I've spend time in different parts of California and can absolutely testify that you cannot just say "the weather in California". I spent one day once where I was baking in the sun in death valley at lunch time and lying in snow by the afternoon. For sure, there is more snow in California each year that the whole of England, no question about that, but that is of course because there are more proper mountains and some areas with altitude. At sea level where the cities are, not so.

It's a large state, of similar size (whether geographical, population, economy) to an entire country such as England or France.

San Francisco is a day's drive north of San Diego. It's like going from Paris to Scotland in travel time so you are getting to correspondingly colder latitudes.

But it's not just that, there is a also a significant difference in the amount of cloud that northern California (where San Francisco is) attracts. San Francisco's winter climate is not that bad but it is variable and because it has more cloud cover (or fog, or mist) it is correspondingly colder.

But Socal is talking about, well, Socal. SOuthern CALifornia has much more dry weather and blue skies and it's hotter for this reason, not just the latitude.

I was once in California during January and I had to have the air con on in the car and I went trekking and I was sweating in just a T shirt. Admittedly that was unusual, but in England - that's never.

I agree HB
I too have travelled the Pacific Highway from San Diego,a lovely little town called Julian, and Solana Beach, to Los Angeles and Holywood. and San Francisco all different

The point Im trying to make is that whilst you cant make a blanket statement re weather for California neither can you for Europe.
Its an incredibly large continent... even in Spain the weather is so different  from North to South. Northern Spain is very much like France
hence Galicia

I always wanted to travel that Pacific highway (big Sur) but never managed it (yet). Most of my trips to California were to one specific place - Los Angeles, San Francisco, or San Diego for work. The one time I travelled all around California for a week was all inland. I did drive once from San Fran to Los Angeles area but took the faster inland route as I was in a hurry to get to Indian Wells for the tennis!

I kind of think that the weather in Europe has two main areas, north and south of the Andes. Whether you're in Manchester, Paris or Frankfurt, the weather is not all that different. And likewise Costa del Sol, Athens or Rome are pretty similar feel.

Northern Spain is a bit of an anomaly though. I've never been to Galicia but sure I heard about it. I think most of Spain has similar weather though. The main difference would be inland (Madrid) has a proper winter of sorts, whereas the coastal south doesn't. Sometimes the weather forecast in Spain is just a picture of Spain with the sun scattered randomly across it.

It is strange some people's perception of Spain.. it is actually quite diverse.
Galicia is beautiful, close to the border with Portugal.. climate a lot more comfortable in the summer, very akin to UK actually, but hilly and very cold in the winter. They play the bag pipes there !!!The plant life is very like UK.  Madrid too can be extremely cold winter but suffocating in the summer.. even parts of the Costas differ .. where I am is hilly, mountainous, green, and very hot...Go as far down south it gets very arid but on  to Andalucia and Granada and you can ski in the winter. Like France it is a huge country and much more to it than sun, sea and sangria

Henman Bill wrote:I always wanted to travel that Pacific highway (big Sur) but never managed it (yet). Most of my trips to California were to one specific place - Los Angeles, San Francisco, or San Diego for work. The one time I travelled all around California for a week was all inland. I did drive once from San Fran to Los Angeles area but took the faster inland route as I was in a hurry to get to Indian Wells for the tennis!

I kind of think that the weather in Europe has two main areas, north and south of the Andes. Whether you're in Manchester, Paris or Frankfurt, the weather is not all that different. And likewise Costa del Sol, Athens or Rome are pretty similar feel.

Northern Spain is a bit of an anomaly though. I've never been to Galicia but sure I heard about it. I think most of Spain has similar weather though. The main difference would be inland (Madrid) has a proper winter of sorts, whereas the coastal south doesn't. Sometimes the weather forecast in Spain is just a picture of Spain with the sun scattered randomly across it.

That coastline is magnificient, especially the central coast from Santa Barbara up to San Franciso. Very rugged and jagged coastline, becomes cooler and greener as you move north more beach like as you move south. It is a great trip a lot of wineries, eateries, and natural beauty.

I have been all over the world and nothing matches the great weather of the California coastline from San diego and even including the bay area. It is a bizarre microclimate where you get warm, but not too hot, it never snows, no humidity, and its basically goes from spring to summer a short fall and then spring again. Not all of CA is like that if you go twenty miles inland it gets real desert like real fast. For example when I lived in Newport Beach and you drive in summer a total of 35 miles inland to Corona all of sudden the temperature goes from high seventies Fahrenheit to about 100 degrees. Almost a degree a mile for every mile you go inland from the pacific. So that thin coastal strip for about 300 miles is just its own climate that isn't even like the rest of the state when you move inland about 15 or 20 miles.

I actually don't like warm temperatures when I go to Europe and prefer it to be a little cold, I just don't like humidity. The more arid parts of Europe are a little like the golden CA coast weather but not quite. The Med, just makes it much more humid feeling than our summers. Therefore the summers are much stickier even in the most ideal Euro weatherzone. I mean I have been to Spain, Italy, France, Turkey, none of their best weather areas even compare.

PS San Francisco is a microclimate within a microclimate its weather is much colder, foggier, windier than the rest of the bay area, for example Napa and Marin County are even more north but the weather is not quite as cold and windy because Frisco is just a thin spit of land surrounded almost 270 degrees with the pacific and the San Fran Bay its weather is atypical even for the rest of the bay area that is generally warmer and less windy.

I don't know of too many people (well.... none actually !) who would claim to truly enjoy humidity, so in all fairness you're probably far from alone on that, socal.

However, given what you say here re your personal issues with certain weather conditions - and particularly in your earlier post (yesterday 7.42am), it's probably just as well you're not a tennis pro. Sounds like you would suffer and flag pretty quickly when faced with the very varied climatic demands of the worldwide tour    It's an element of the sport which perhaps isn't always given the significance (and hence, 'credit', where individual high-achieving players are concerned ) that it deserves.

I live in central Chile now and the climate is probably fairly similar to mediterranean or southern california, with hot dry summers and only a handful of days a year with rain, and none in the summer. It's not perfect because the night time and early morning temperature here can be cold.

I too have travelled all over the world, including east and north Africa, far east, and many places in the USA.and North America and Europe so its different strokes for different folks.
There are certainly other states in USA I would chose before California.
All down to personal choice
You would have to spend a great deal of time in Spain or France to make any assessment of the varied weather conditions in both countries

If anyone ever finds Utopia please let me know


By the way lags

socal1976 wrote:I grew up in a place where it rains about 20 times a year and then it isn't a hard rain so this concept of delaying an outdoor event due to rain is as bizarre concept like drinking warm beer. But my prediction is that weather could play a big role in who wins, especially in light of the wide open situation.

Was it that fine rain that soaks you right through? Where I grew up we had that, but it was about 20 times a month (at least).

bogbrush wrote:

socal1976 wrote:I grew up in a place where it rains about 20 times a year and then it isn't a hard rain so this concept of delaying an outdoor event due to rain is as bizarre concept like drinking warm beer. But my prediction is that weather could play a big role in who wins, especially in light of the wide open situation.

Was it that fine rain that soaks you right through? Where I grew up we had that, but it was about 20 times a month (at least).

Even better than that most of those 20 days happen when you are asleep because the weather even in winter and fall is too warm during the day often for precipitation. So I would say of those 20 days of rain about 10-12 of those days most if not all the rain comes at night. But for me I like the rain, I just don't like the weather in Europe when it gets warm it is worse. It takes my body a good 3-5 days of suffering before I just simultaneously to the jet lag and to higher European pollen and moisture content. Yes BB, imagine what my temper would be like if 80 percent of my days weren't 65-80 Fahrenheit with mild to no humidity.

But alas I am getting on a flight in a few hours to join all of you on your fair continent.

socal1976 wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

socal1976 wrote:I grew up in a place where it rains about 20 times a year and then it isn't a hard rain so this concept of delaying an outdoor event due to rain is as bizarre concept like drinking warm beer. But my prediction is that weather could play a big role in who wins, especially in light of the wide open situation.

Was it that fine rain that soaks you right through? Where I grew up we had that, but it was about 20 times a month (at least).

Even better than that most of those 20 days happen when you are asleep because the weather even in winter and fall is too warm during the day often for precipitation. So I would say of those 20 days of rain about 10-12 of those days most if not all the rain comes at night. But for me I like the rain, I just don't like the weather in Europe when it gets warm it is worse. It takes my body a good 3-5 days of suffering before I just simultaneously to the jet lag and to higher European pollen and moisture content. Yes BB, imagine what my temper would be like if 80 percent of my days weren't 65-80 Fahrenheit with mild to no humidity.

But alas I am getting on a flight in a few hours to join all of you on your fair continent.

Then it begs the question why bother

Yeah.... unless you've got a real good reason for putting your body through all that suffering, you should maybe just stay at home socal.

Reading the catalogue of all those awful things that happen to you, anyone might be forgiven for thinking you were about to join an expedition to the darkest depths of the Amazon jungle - rather than mainland Europe.

Like I said earlier, just as well you're not a touring tennis pro. I reckon they'd be carrying you off on a stretcher after two or three games .....

lags72 wrote:Yeah.... unless you've got a real good reason for putting your body through all that suffering, you should maybe just stay at home socal.

Reading the catalogue of all those awful things that happen to you, anyone might be forgiven for thinking you were about to join an expedition to the darkest depths of the Amazon jungle - rather than mainland Europe.

Like I said earlier, just as well you're not a touring tennis pro. I reckon they'd be carrying you off on a stretcher after two or three games .....

Do you enjoy laughing at my lifelong problems with asthma or allergies, I actually played on my tennis team and played cornerback for my football team. I am used to popping antihistamines like tic tacs, and things I am telling you about are about as debilitating as jet lag, once I have a couple of days or few days to adjust I usually do. I lived in Tehran one of the most polluted cities in the world now that took me a good month to adjust. Business ladies that is why I am travelling since my health is of such a concern. None of the things I told you knock me down and out, they just require medication and a couple of days of adjustment.

People don't know this but one of the reasons I warmed to Djokovic was because he had to fight a lot of the same stuff and I know how tough it would be to train at his level and succeed with those issues.

Then from one asthmatic to another I would strongly advise you stay in the clean, non humid, non pollenated beautiful air of California.. as lags says why put yourself through unnecessary suffering to visit the continent that causes you such distress... I doubt there is one of us that would not understand your decision.

Now hang on socal, let's be honest ..... you surely must admit that you do tend to dramatise & exaggerate, almost as a matter of routine, in so many of your musings - not just on tennis-related stuff but with certain aspects of your personal life too.

Of course I don't consider what you now describe as lifelong problems, involving asthma and allergies, to be laughing matters in themselves. I am far from unsympathetic. But - in all fairness - you can't reasonably expect others to decipher and differentiate instantly those times when you are using hyperbole purely for effect or attention ; and those occasions when you are being wholly serious.

There is weather and then there is being under the weather.

Well if already in Europe for business then a quick visit to RG could be on the cards... that should ease the discomfort... or then again..may be not Depending on the weather !!!

Forecast not exceptional for Paris over the next 2 weeks...look at the rainfall chances each day and hardly a heatwave either.

So does wet weather mean slow moving conditions, e.g. does it favour Rafa and not favour say Stan?

It tends not to favour Nadal as he loses bite on the ball due to the top dressing bedding down and not rewarding his prodigious spin. It also keeps lower.

Lydian I have already acknowledged your superior knowledge regarding the technicalities.. but that is theory and I will apologise in advance for my ignorance in such matters.
In practice however Rafa has proven you wrong, even today the result he had, albeit you would have expected him to win, but according to reports he was exceptional. I have already mentioned his win over Novak in the semis of 2013. And given that he has won this on 9 occasions seriously, are you telling me that he has not had to withstand similar conditions in the past on clay.
Or are you being over cautious my friend

lol...always over-cautious re: Nadal

These discussions are never black/white...my comments really relate to how he plays on damp clay against the very best, for most player outside top 10 he doesn't tend to struggle (over his career) on any surface anyway given his talent.

Lets remember Nadal's key clay strengths...
1) Massive spin (higher than anyone else), so ball rears up off the surface
2) Ability to slide on clay better than most
3) Ability to play high balls back with spin/power

Damp clay (vs. dry)
1) Reduces spin, partly due to clumping, partly due to heavier damp ball
2) Cant slide the same on damp clay
3) Ball bounces lower

So, his key advantages vs the top guys are negated. He can still play well because he's a tennis great...but on clay his key advantages are reduced so he has to focus on moving and hitting differently.

Besides, we saw what happened vs Djokovic in 12 or 13...he was 2 sets up, it rained and then Djokovic took 8-9 straight games. They went off, came back the next day when it was dry and warmer, and Rafa ripped through the rest of the match.

In any case, they reckon there is much less top dressing at RG these days and the balls were changed a few years back and fly through the air more. If you look at the courts on dry days, its true that you just dont see the level of loose top clay vs. tournaments of old. Both these changes make RG more hardcourt-like than say 5-6 years ago.

So Nadal has had to adapt anyway...and you might argue wet vs dry difference at RG isn't the big deal it once was. I do find it annoying that they constantly tinker with the surfaces so that over a period of 10 years they are very different...this applies to ALL slams.

lydian wrote:lol...always over-cautious re: Nadal

These discussions are never black/white...my comments really relate to how he plays on damp clay against the very best, for most player outside top 10 he doesn't tend to struggle (over his career) on any surface anyway given his talent.

Lets remember Nadal's key clay strengths...
1) Massive spin (higher than anyone else), so ball rears up off the surface
2) Ability to slide on clay better than most
3) Ability to play high balls back with spin/power

Damp clay (vs. dry)
1) Reduces spin, partly due to clumping, partly due to heavier damp ball
2) Cant slide the same on damp clay
3) Ball bounces lower

So, his key advantages vs the top guys are negated. He can still play well because he's a tennis great...but on clay his key advantages are reduced so he has to focus on moving and hitting differently.

Besides, we saw what happened vs Djokovic in 12 or 13...he was 2 sets up, it rained and then Djokovic took 8-9 straight games. They went off, came back the next day when it was dry and warmer, and Rafa ripped through the rest of the match.

In any case, they reckon there is much less top dressing at RG these days and the balls were changed a few years back and fly through the air more. If you look at the courts on dry days, its true that you just dont see the level of loose top clay vs. tournaments of old. Both these changes make RG more hardcourt-like than say 5-6 years ago.

So Nadal has had to adapt anyway...and you might argue wet vs dry difference at RG isn't the big deal it once was. I do find it annoying that they constantly tinker with the surfaces so that over a period of 10 years they are very different...this applies to ALL slams.

No way !!! I would not argue your explanation Lydian I know nothing about it if Im honest.
I know that Rafa is great at adapting to conditions, better than most I would say.
I think this year, due to the climate, and the outlying pressures on certain players it will be a very testing tournament all round imo. Certainly Andy's and Stan's matches were far from straightforward

Yes agreed, cool and damp(ish) for many of the days...RG is rarely played in blazing hot conditions.
I think many of us have memories of such, like we did with those barren dry Wimbledon courts of the 70s/80s, but the reality these days is that summers are much wetter...

Rafa will adapt anyway, as you say he's been transitioning his game for a while. Nonetheless if he could go all the way in these conditions then he really will have amazed everyone as these conditions reward the flatter hitters...look at Stepanek and Rosol last night/today...