Socal's weather theory about the FO

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Socal's weather theory about the FO

Post by socal1976 on Thu May 19, 2016 7:11 am

First topic message reminder :

Ok, before you all accuse me of eurobashing, it's my favorite continent to visit. But in this event, draw is huge as is rain delays, almost always happens in this event due to the typical shiiity European weather. After a lifetime in the Cali coast, I loathe your weather and will be in your otherwise spectacular continent from the 23rd till early June. I have allergies and I know my whole face is going to puff up the first week from your humidity and obnoxious pollen content.  Still Milan not a bad place to be in late spring that is for sure. And I do love Italy. Late spring in Paris almost always has big rain delays. Wimby has to but the more grueling and punishing nature of the clay court battle makes weather and draw ultra important. Invariably , in the FO one side of the draw gets screwed because of rain delays forced to wait and then finish the tournament playing 4 out five days or five out of six or seven days.

 And these are no aceing contests. These are brutal exchanges where weight of shot and punishing running do make the conditioning more important in this tourney than in any other. Tennis players train to play everyday but 90-120 minutes a day or conversely to play brutal 5 setters that could last four or more hours EVERY OTHER day. They don't typically encounter (except at RG) a situation where they play 3 hours one day, then go 90 minutes to finish the next day, then go maybe 4 hours the day after that because they started later and had a rain delay.




But in relation to the FO I find it to be the most weather impacted slam. In variably one part of the draw gets royally F'd by the weather. And this becomes exponentially worse because of the physical nature of the play. A bad break with rain and start times and then Novak runs into a player who is fresh late in the tourney who while not favored engages him in a drawn out leg burning contest. Last year it played a role although to be fair the way Stan was striking the fact that Novak played multidays didn't matter much. 

I grew up in a place where it rains about 20 times a year and then it isn't a hard rain so this concept of delaying an outdoor event due to rain is as bizarre concept like drinking warm beer. But my prediction is that weather could play a big role in who wins, especially in light of the wide open situation. In the past Nadal was just so many notches better that this scenario was unlikely. Most of the tournament would be quite easy for him physically. This year with a more even chance the weather and draw will be enormous. Generally, when the snarky Gallic weather gods decide to urinate on Paris match day, if you happen to be playing that day these same gods are generally doing the same thing to your slam chances.

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Re: Socal's weather theory about the FO

Post by Henman Bill on Tue May 24, 2016 6:21 pm

Thanks for the comments guys.

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Re: Socal's weather theory about the FO

Post by socal1976 on Wed May 25, 2016 12:13 am

I don't like Novak being one of the last people to start this tournament With 12 days and six more five setters. A couple of rain delays and he is again thanks to the aholes of the French open will have to play four and five days in a row. Thanks again dicks, since the uso canned stupid Saturday, the French is now the worst scheduled of all the slams with by far the most delays. How about two days for round 1 and is Novak ever allowed to go first?

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Re: Socal's weather theory about the FO

Post by socal1976 on Mon May 30, 2016 3:48 pm

I won't say it to protect the tender sensitives of some. But everyone of you knows what I am thinking.

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Re: Socal's weather theory about the FO

Post by CaledonianCraig on Mon May 30, 2016 3:55 pm

Like I said on the other thread it doesn't inconvenience him above anyone else here.

He will finish his match tomorrow as will the others in his half. He will likely play back-to-back days on Thursday and Friday (like others in his half). The lower half are unlikely to play tomorrow so will get held over until Wednesday and will play again probably on Thursday. I would only say it was unfair in some way of Novak was the only one who had to play, say on three consecutive days but that is not going to happen.
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Re: Socal's weather theory about the FO

Post by socal1976 on Mon May 30, 2016 4:01 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:Like I said on the other thread it doesn't inconvenience him above anyone else here.

He will finish his match tomorrow as will the others in his half. He will likely play back-to-back days on Thursday and Friday (like others in his half). The lower half are unlikely to play tomorrow so will get held over until Wednesday and will play again probably on Thursday. I would only say it was unfair in some way of Novak was the only one who had to play, say on three consecutive days but that is not going to happen.
Yes it does because the way this thing is going Novak will be playing multiple days in a row to finish it again and Stan and Andy are already chilling in the next round. The French jobbed him again. Yeah start the most weather impacted tournament over three days with Novak being the last guy on day three. What a bunch of incompetent and unaware idiots. By far the sheetiest run slam. And yes this isn't the first time that he has been scheduled into oblivion by these aholes, the did it to him last year as well. Huge, huge advantage for Murray and Stan. This doesn't cut both ways who is chilling in the next round right now?

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Re: Socal's weather theory about the FO

Post by CaledonianCraig on Mon May 30, 2016 4:06 pm

No I have to disagree. At present what will happen is that Novak will complete his semi on Friday with two days to recover. Keeps him in the usual two day rhythm. Murray or Stan (if they indeed reach that stage) will finish on the Thursday. I have seen Novak play two five and a half hour matches in 48 hours in the heat of Australia so this will be a cakewalk in comparison especially if we consider that his semi opponent could be one ranked outside the top ten.
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Re: Socal's weather theory about the FO

Post by socal1976 on Mon May 30, 2016 4:10 pm

Nope disagree completely once you factor in the added physicality, you are assuming that it won't rain again, anymore rain and he falls even further behind. I could see Novak going five straight days to finish this thing. If I could murder whoever made the decision to start this thing over three days and put him dead last I would, then I would fly to Paris and take a hot smelly Poopie on his tombstone.

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Re: Socal's weather theory about the FO

Post by CaledonianCraig on Mon May 30, 2016 4:21 pm

There is obviously going to be far less physicality now for him given that he would have been expecting to play Rafa whereas now it could be Goffin or Thiem.

As for prospects of more rain take a look at Paris weather:-

Tomorrow more rain is forecast but more drier interludes and much more like drizzly rain which can be played through. Novak is first on court and so odds on to complete his match. The others in his half are slso first on court so they should all complete theirs as well so that is as fair as it can be. The lower half are less likely to play at all tomorrow especially if there are interruptions or may start and not finish and have to return on Wednesday.

Wednesday's forecast is better so Novak should be able to finish his quarter-final at no disadvantage to his opponent as they would have had equal time to rest between matches. And if Murray and Wawrinka don't finish or start their matches tomorrow they could very well be wrapping their QF's up on the same day. Looking at scheduling both semis would then be on Friday so no disadvantages there.
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Re: Socal's weather theory about the FO

Post by socal1976 on Mon May 30, 2016 4:37 pm

Let's hope so Craig, I honestly don't want to think that the result will be impacted by the rank incompetence of the RG people. Shocking that knowing how rain impacted this slam is that they would start over three days and knowing how much this means to Novak put him dead last.

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Re: Socal's weather theory about the FO

Post by CaledonianCraig on Mon May 30, 2016 5:30 pm

Well here is the Paris AccuWeather forecast for tomorrow:-

http://www.accuweather.com/en/fr/paris/623/hourly-weather-forecast/623?hour=33

From around noon until around 4pm there is a dry slot. The rain that is forecast is not persistent and after showers around 4pm until around 6pm there is another two hour dry slot.
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