South Africa v Ireland, 11 June

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Post by George Carlin on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 12:49 pm

South Africa v Ireland, 11 June Sa10        South Africa v Ireland, 11 June Irelan10
SOUTH AFRICA v IRELAND
11 June 2016
17:00 SAST (UTC+02)
DHL Newlands, Cape Town

Live on Sky Sports

Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France)
Touch judges: [tbc]
Television match official: [tbc]

A. Head to Head

22 Played 22
16 Won 5
1 Drawn 1
5 Lost 16
422 Points 277

B. Recent Form

8 November 2014 - Aviva Stadium, Dublin: 29 – 15 to Ireland

10 November 2012 - Aviva Stadium, Dublin: 12 – 16 to South Africa

6 November 2010 - Aviva Stadium, Dublin: 21 – 23 to South Africa

28 November 2009 - Croke Park, Dublin: 15 – 10 to Ireland

11 November 2006 - Lansdowne Road, Dublin: 32 – 15 to Ireland

13 November 2004 - Lansdowne Road, Dublin: 17 – 12 to Ireland

19 June 2004 - Newlands, Cape Town: 26 – 17 to South Africa

C. Teams

SOUTH AFRICA 
South Africa v Ireland, 11 June Al_cot10
15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Pat Lambie, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Siya Kolisi, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Adriaan Strauss (captain), 1 Tendai Mtawarira

Substitutes: 16 Bongi Mbonambi 17 Trevor Nyakane 18 Julian Redelinghuys 19 Pieter-Steph du Toit 20 Warren Whiteley 21 Rudy Paige 22 Elton Jantjies 23 Jesse Kriel

IRELAND
South Africa v Ireland, 11 June Joe-sc10
J Payne; A Trimble, R Henshaw, L Marshall, K Earls; P Jackson, C Murray; J McGrath, R Best, M Ross; I Henderson, D Toner; CJ Stander, J Murphy, J Heaslip

Replacements: S Cronin, F Bealham, T Furlong, U Dillane, R Ruddock, K Marmion, I Madigan, C Gilroy.


Last edited by George Carlin on Sun 12 Jun 2016, 1:46 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by Pete330v2 on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 1:09 pm

Butthole

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Post by SecretFly on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 1:13 pm

Fantastic record we have against these guys. Should be a stroll for Joe and Madser. As long as they remember to bring the oxygen tanks, we'll be fine

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Post by Notch on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 1:50 pm

So I think Jackson will start, thats not really in that much doubt, with the injuries I can't see him not going for Trimble and Earls... Henshaw and Payne are certainties wherever they play. So the big selection questions in the backs are; Olding or Luke Marshall? And Henshaw or Payne to drop back to 15?

In the forwards, very obvious front row; can't do without Ross to shore up the scrum. Toner will surely start to run the line out (but I would prefer Donnacha Ryan), and Henderson will start- so the big question is does he start at lock or at blindside. That means either Ultan Dillane, Rhys Ruddock or Jordi Murphy will complete the pack. I remember when we played South Africa in Dublin, Henry pulled out the night before and Ruddock slotted in very well at open side. Could be a runner.

Possible Ireland team;

1. McGrath
2. Best (c)
3. Ross
4. Toner
5. Henderson
6. Stander
7. Ruddock
8. Heaslip
9. Murray
10. Jackson
11. Earls
12. Marshall
13. Payne
14. Trimble
15. Henshaw
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Post by Golden on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 2:02 pm

With Madigan now (presumably) on the bench, Oldings versatility may not stand to him as much as it would have. Id expect Marmion, Madigan and Healy/TOH to be the backs on the bench

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Post by Rory_Gallagher on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 2:05 pm

If Madigan doesn't feature at all in the 23 (highly unlikely) then it would make sense for Luke Marshall to start at 12 with Stuart Olding wearing number 22 to cover 10 and 12. It will probably be a toss up between Stuart and Luke to feature in the 23.

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Post by BamBam on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 2:06 pm

I'll have a stab at a SA side

1. Beast
2. Strauss (c)
3. Malherbe
4. De Jager
5. Etzebeth
6. Louw
7. Kriel
8. Vermeulen
9. De Klerk
10. Jantjies
11. Mvovo
12. Serfontein
13. Kriel
14. Pietersen
15. Le Roux

Not sure if either of those locks can call the lineout, or whether the halfbacks are more likely than Groom/Lambie, but from the Super Rugby I've seen this year that looks pretty solid

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Post by Notch on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 2:18 pm

Rory_Gallagher wrote:If Madigan doesn't feature at all in the 23 (highly unlikely) then it would make sense for Luke Marshall to start at 12 with Stuart Olding wearing number 22 to cover 10 and 12. It will probably be a toss up between Stuart and Luke to feature in the 23.

Think now that Madigan is on tour, Olding will probably miss out unless he starts. Will be interesting to see who gets the final bench spot- Gilroy, Healy or O'Hallornan.
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Post by fa0019 on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 2:22 pm

BamBam wrote:I'll have a stab at a SA side

1. Beast
2. Strauss (c)
3. Malherbe
4. De Jager
5. Etzebeth
6. Louw
7. Kriel
8. Vermeulen
9. De Klerk
10. Jantjies
11. Mvovo
12. Serfontein
13. Kriel
14. Pietersen
15. Le Roux

Not sure if either of those locks can call the lineout, or whether the halfbacks are more likely than Groom/Lambie, but from the Super Rugby I've seen this year that looks pretty solid

I reckon there will be a few changes to that. Mine is

Forwards - Mtawarira, Strauss, Malherbe, Etzebeth, De Jager, Kolisi, Louw, Whiteley (Some reason I don't think Vermeulen will be released)

Its a big pack.... near 930kgs yet the backrow is surprisingly light and mobile. Admittedly lacks genuine strike runners though. It could be an issue. You need your ball carriers and without Duane its a little threadbare.

Backs - De Klerk, Lambie, Mvovo, De Allende, Mapoe, Pietersen, Le Roux

I reckon De Allende and Mapoe will form a good partnership. A lot of brute strength and guile in there. Lambie will surely play above Jantjies... who might start later in the series. Coetzee will remember how much he failed when he brought him to the Stormers.

Bench - Kitsoff, Mbonambi (terrible that he is), Nyakane, Mostert, Kriel, Groom, Jantjies, Kriel

Its an ok side. Can't see Ireland winning now Sexton has gone. Could they snatch a win vs. NZ in the RC???? This time, difficult to see how they could although we have to see how NZ is without the great ones dropping off.

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Post by Rory_Gallagher on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 2:33 pm

Notch wrote:
Rory_Gallagher wrote:If Madigan doesn't feature at all in the 23 (highly unlikely) then it would make sense for Luke Marshall to start at 12 with Stuart Olding wearing number 22 to cover 10 and 12. It will probably be a toss up between Stuart and Luke to feature in the 23.

Think now that Madigan is on tour, Olding will probably miss out unless he starts. Will be interesting to see who gets the final bench spot- Gilroy, Healy or O'Hallornan.

I don't think it will be TOH - we have enough cover at fullback and both Gilroy and Healy can cover there also. I think it will probably be Healy but I would like it to be Gilroy. Either way though it will be good to have a real threat in the wider channels.

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Post by Hazel Sapling on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 2:38 pm

De Jager and Etzebeth are both good line-out options. I assumed one of them must be able to call.

Think De Allende has fallen back a bit but he is still considered the holder of the 12 jersey. Whether Serfontein has done enough to displace him is another question. Forgot about Mapoe who has been strong (thanks fa0019 as I checked your post).

Mvovo to my untrained eye is overrated. Far prefer the Stormers wings Hendricks. 5 tries in 11 tests, all in separate tests(rather than scoring 3 against Namibia or something).

If Kolbe is okay, he has been fabulous for a while (FB a la Gilroy but shiftier and smaller) and Le Roux has not suited the Sharks play at all. Want to see what he can do.

Jantijies is the form 10 at the moment. Du Preez got hurt at Stormers early this season or another young gun could have denied him. Pollard won't be back til next year if they manage him probably.

Do not rate Kolisi but he did have a stormer last game I watched him in. Seems to get knocked back a bit in contact a bit more than I would like for a 6.

Think Ireland have enough to keep it interesting if they can handle a massive SA scrum.

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Post by fa0019 on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 2:59 pm

Hazel Sapling wrote:De Jager and Etzebeth are both good line-out options. I assumed one of them must be able to call.

Think De Allende has fallen back a bit but he is still considered the holder of the 12 jersey. Whether Serfontein has done enough to displace him is another question. Forgot about Mapoe who has been strong (thanks fa0019 as I checked your post).

Mvovo to my untrained eye is overrated. Far prefer the Stormers wings Hendricks. 5 tries in 11 tests, all in separate tests(rather than scoring 3 against Namibia or something).

If Kolbe is okay, he has been fabulous for a while (FB a la Gilroy but shiftier and smaller) and Le Roux has not suited the Sharks play at all. Want to see what he can do.

Jantijies is the form 10 at the moment. Du Preez got hurt at Stormers early this season or another young gun could have denied him. Pollard won't be back til next year if they manage him probably.

Do not rate Kolisi but he did have a stormer last game I watched him in. Seems to get knocked back a bit in contact a bit more than I would like for a 6.

Think Ireland have enough to keep it interesting if they can handle a massive SA scrum.

De Jager was pretty decent calling in the RWC. Strauss has the best completion rate in SR but I think Eben and Lood have a lot of making up to do after their little scrap.

Kolisi is a worker. He's not a 7 not a traditional 6 but he has a great engine and is a very very good tackler (of the best in SR, if not rugby itself for completions.. more amazing given he is a first phase tackler). Needs to become more prolific on the floor though.

The problem for Jantjies is that some may have faith but his kicking is still not test class. Lambie is. He's also very solid defensively. He messed up when he was at the Stormers under Coetzee and just don't see Coetzee throwing in De Klerk and Jantjies together cold.... combination will help but you don't experiment with newbie 9s and 10s at the same time.

Hendricks is not playing rugby. Heart problems and I think his career is over. Mvovo is a lazy runner but is still a good finisher. He's has test experience and I think that will count a lot of Coetzee. He's not ever messed up or been seen out of his depth so I reckon he'll start.

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Post by Golden on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 3:02 pm

Rory_Gallagher wrote:
Notch wrote:
Rory_Gallagher wrote:If Madigan doesn't feature at all in the 23 (highly unlikely) then it would make sense for Luke Marshall to start at 12 with Stuart Olding wearing number 22 to cover 10 and 12. It will probably be a toss up between Stuart and Luke to feature in the 23.

Think now that Madigan is on tour, Olding will probably miss out unless he starts. Will be interesting to see who gets the final bench spot- Gilroy, Healy or O'Hallornan.

I don't think it will be TOH - we have enough cover at fullback and both Gilroy and Healy can cover there also. I think it will probably be Healy but I would like it to be Gilroy. Either way though it will be good to have a real threat in the wider channels.


Schmidt wont be keen moving his starting team to cover injuries. Madigan will cover 10/12 and No.23 will cover wing and fullback would be my guess.

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Post by Hazel Sapling on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 3:19 pm

fa0019 wrote:
Hazel Sapling wrote:De Jager and Etzebeth are both good line-out options. I assumed one of them must be able to call.

Think De Allende has fallen back a bit but he is still considered the holder of the 12 jersey. Whether Serfontein has done enough to displace him is another question. Forgot about Mapoe who has been strong (thanks fa0019 as I checked your post).

Mvovo to my untrained eye is overrated. Far prefer the Stormers wings Hendricks. 5 tries in 11 tests, all in separate tests(rather than scoring 3 against Namibia or something).

If Kolbe is okay, he has been fabulous for a while (FB a la Gilroy but shiftier and smaller) and Le Roux has not suited the Sharks play at all. Want to see what he can do.

Jantijies is the form 10 at the moment. Du Preez got hurt at Stormers early this season or another young gun could have denied him. Pollard won't be back til next year if they manage him probably.

Do not rate Kolisi but he did have a stormer last game I watched him in. Seems to get knocked back a bit in contact a bit more than I would like for a 6.

Think Ireland have enough to keep it interesting if they can handle a massive SA scrum.

De Jager was pretty decent calling in the RWC. Strauss has the best completion rate in SR but I think Eben and Lood have a lot of making up to do after their little scrap.

Kolisi is a worker. He's not a 7 not a traditional 6 but he has a great engine and is a very very good tackler (of the best in SR, if not rugby itself for completions.. more amazing given he is a first phase tackler). Needs to become more prolific on the floor though.

The problem for Jantjies is that some may have faith but his kicking is still not test class. Lambie is. He's also very solid defensively. He messed up when he was at the Stormers under Coetzee and just don't see Coetzee throwing in De Klerk and Jantjies together cold.... combination will help but you don't experiment with newbie 9s and 10s at the same time.

Hendricks is not playing rugby. Heart problems and I think his career is over. Mvovo is a lazy runner but is still a good finisher. He's has test experience and I think that will count a lot of Coetzee. He's not ever messed up or been seen out of his depth so I reckon he'll start.

Groom has been good this season so maybe your right about the combos but would prefer to see Jantijies be rewarded. Lambie is a good penalty kicker and will win games but Jantijies may actually get SA scoring some tries.

Missed Hendricks heart issue, thought I was watching him play early this season. Van Wyk should be considered in future but is not ready. Mvovo to me is a fantastic finisher with space but that is the case with any speedster. He offers little else and surely SA have someone else to take the mantle. The Cheetahs Petersen looks a raw prospect. Is there really no one else? Feel like I am forgetting people. Combrink got picked however I don't watch many of the Lions games even if they have finally started to look good the past couple of seasons.

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Post by fa0019 on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 3:37 pm

Hazel Sapling wrote:
fa0019 wrote:
Hazel Sapling wrote:De Jager and Etzebeth are both good line-out options. I assumed one of them must be able to call.

Think De Allende has fallen back a bit but he is still considered the holder of the 12 jersey. Whether Serfontein has done enough to displace him is another question. Forgot about Mapoe who has been strong (thanks fa0019 as I checked your post).

Mvovo to my untrained eye is overrated. Far prefer the Stormers wings Hendricks. 5 tries in 11 tests, all in separate tests(rather than scoring 3 against Namibia or something).

If Kolbe is okay, he has been fabulous for a while (FB a la Gilroy but shiftier and smaller) and Le Roux has not suited the Sharks play at all. Want to see what he can do.

Jantijies is the form 10 at the moment. Du Preez got hurt at Stormers early this season or another young gun could have denied him. Pollard won't be back til next year if they manage him probably.

Do not rate Kolisi but he did have a stormer last game I watched him in. Seems to get knocked back a bit in contact a bit more than I would like for a 6.

Think Ireland have enough to keep it interesting if they can handle a massive SA scrum.

De Jager was pretty decent calling in the RWC. Strauss has the best completion rate in SR but I think Eben and Lood have a lot of making up to do after their little scrap.

Kolisi is a worker. He's not a 7 not a traditional 6 but he has a great engine and is a very very good tackler (of the best in SR, if not rugby itself for completions.. more amazing given he is a first phase tackler). Needs to become more prolific on the floor though.

The problem for Jantjies is that some may have faith but his kicking is still not test class. Lambie is. He's also very solid defensively. He messed up when he was at the Stormers under Coetzee and just don't see Coetzee throwing in De Klerk and Jantjies together cold.... combination will help but you don't experiment with newbie 9s and 10s at the same time.

Hendricks is not playing rugby. Heart problems and I think his career is over. Mvovo is a lazy runner but is still a good finisher. He's has test experience and I think that will count a lot of Coetzee. He's not ever messed up or been seen out of his depth so I reckon he'll start.

Groom has been good this season so maybe your right about the combos but would prefer to see Jantijies be rewarded. Lambie is a good penalty kicker and will win games but Jantijies may actually get SA scoring some tries.

Missed Hendricks heart issue, thought I was watching him play early this season. Van Wyk should be considered in future but is not ready. Mvovo to me is a fantastic finisher with space but that is the case with any speedster. He offers little else and surely SA have someone else to take the mantle. The Cheetahs Petersen looks a raw prospect. Is there really no one else? Feel like I am forgetting people. Combrink got picked however I don't watch many of the Lions games even if they have finally started to look good the past couple of seasons.

Lambie is more than a penalty kicker. He's the real deal. The only thing that lets him down probably is that his goal kicking is not up to a Morne type standard. He has excellent defender and that backline needs leaders... Jantjies is simply too young, you don't go into a match with a team like Ireland with newbie halfbacks and no real backline leaders... its suicide.

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Post by Hazel Sapling on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 4:10 pm

Disagree with too young. Pollard is younger and less experienced but is fine. Admittedly the lack of an experienced SH does not help. The problem was created when SA did not refresh the squad more before De Villiers and Du Preez left. Lambie just does not impress me often enough when I see him play. He is a steady 10 whose kicking can go off the boil. Jantijies is a creative 10 whose kicking goes off the boil regularly (makes me think of Cipriani). I think Jantijies is higher variance but has a higher ceiling.

Besides Ireland are in a similar spot with Jackson at 10 and their best 9 is probably Marmian who has no experience. It is not a settled backline that SA will face.

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Post by fa0019 on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 4:15 pm

Hazel Sapling wrote:Disagree with too young. Pollard is younger and less experienced but is fine. Admittedly the lack of an experienced SH does not help. The problem was created when SA did not refresh the squad more before De Villiers and Du Preez left. Lambie just does not impress me often enough when I see him play. He is a steady 10 whose kicking can go off the boil. Jantijies is a creative 10 whose kicking goes off the boil regularly (makes me think of Cipriani). I think Jantijies is higher variance but has a higher ceiling.

Besides Ireland are in a similar spot with Jackson at 10 and their best 9 is probably Marmian who has no experience. It is not a settled backline that SA will face.

Age in rugby is not your age but your match experience. Pollard has been 10 for 2 years. Thats a lot of rugby. Pollard has 20 caps, Jantjies has 2 (both times off the bench).
Jantjies for me doesn't have the consistency in kicking nor the range to make it as a starter over Lambie regardless of the attacking guile Jantjies offers at the moment. Maybe, maybe had SA had a vet at 9 to steer him through but not when your 9s will be De Klerk and then Groom off the bench. You can't have experimental 9s & 10s together. One maybe, 2 is not what wins test matches.

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Post by carpet baboon on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 5:31 pm

For ireland I think we need some pace oot wide so one off Healy or gilroy should start.
They probably won't.


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Post by SecretFly on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 5:43 pm

carpet baboon wrote:For ireland I think we need some pace oot wide  so one off Healy or gilroy should start.
They probably won't.


We also unfortunately need the usual rigid defence - I mean the kind that isn't needed so much at Pro12 level.

So as we talk of pace, we must think of defensive robustness and wisdom too. That's always Joe's biggest balancing act. Have we the attacking dynamics to do a New Zealand philosophy on our games, as in "We'll score more than you"?
Or is our lack of true cutting edge the very reason why people get annoyed with Schmidt's choices - as he's choosing players more for their determination in defence than for their pomp in attack?

I'm sure Schmidt wished all Provinces played like Connacht - at least then me might be in a position to attempt that "We'll score more than you" trick..

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Post by JmD on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 6:35 pm

What do the rest of you Irish fans think about the second row situation?

Henderson and Dillane are the most physically talented pair, and they're best equipped to combat the Etzebeth/De Jager axis. Unfortunately, as far as I'm aware anyway, neither of them have any experience running a lineout. So it's likely one of Ryan or Toner has to start (I would prefer Ryan, but I'd say Schmidt feels otherwise). So the question is, what combo of Henderson/Dillane and Toner/Ryan can we expect to see? Could there even be a possibility of Henderson at blindside, perhaps shifting Stander over to play 7?

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Post by Notch on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 6:57 pm

I would go with Ryan and Henderson but there's no way Toner will be dropped I expect- think he'll go with Toner and Henderson.

If its Toner and Dillane with Henderson in the back row thats fine with me too.

I would go with; Ryan (Toner), Henderson, Stander, Ruddock, Heaslip
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Post by SecretFly on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 7:05 pm

Toner is one of those players that shouldn't be needed but is getting on to be as essential as Ross once was and The Bull Hayes was before him.  A player with perhaps not the greatest all round skills or presence but with an essential ingredient that makes him hard to drop.

He can't help the limiting parts of his game - some tall players are just moulded in the wrong way to be intimidating, aggressive, punishingly physical types.  Other guys just as tall with  different muscle make up, stronger thighs, heavier bone structure etc.... they can play a different role.

He's a big unit and he isn't a walk over but he's on the team for easing the line-out headaches.

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Post by Biltong on Fri 03 Jun 2016, 8:19 pm

I too think Lambie will start ahead of Jantjies, purely because when Jantjies were on loan to the Stormers when the Lions didn't participate in Super Rugby he did not perform.

Granted it was at the time his father passed, but I just get the feeling Coetzee does not know how to work with Jantjies.

Groom is a more structured player and possibly in Coetzee's mind controls a match better, plus Coetzee knows him well.

De Klerk might be the impact player in the last quarter.

I expect Lood to call the line outs.

With Lood and Etzebeth and Kriel/Kolosi, there are plenty power ball carriers.

Would love to see Kolisi, Kriel and Whiteley in the back row.

Mvovo has always been overrated, sincerely hope he is not first choice.

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Post by George Carlin on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 11:17 am

Bilt - how has PS du Toit been playing this season? Are you expecting him to feature?
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Post by Biltong on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 11:20 am

He is out George, 4-6 weeks.'
It is a shame, he was playing excellent rugby
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Post by George Carlin on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 11:23 am

Biltong wrote:He is out George, 4-6 weeks.'
It is a shame, he was playing excellent rugby
Well, at least that's one freakishly mobile monster Ireland won't have to be facing.
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Post by Biltong on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 11:25 am

laughing
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Post by Notch on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 11:25 am

Now to worry about the rest of the freakishly mobile monsters...
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Post by profitius on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 2:54 pm

How will SA play? Are they going to change their style and pick a more mobile pack etc?
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Post by Notch on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 3:31 pm

They've got some really handy backs prof. I think they can play quite an open game while still using their big carriers up front to batter through. I think they've been quite a mobile side for a while now.

They remind me of Toulon a bit.
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Post by Biltong on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 4:19 pm

Profitius that is the main question asked by south african fans.

You must consider the fact that Allister Coetzee has been the most successful SA coach in the round robins, but his success has been built on a defensive game plan.

By memory his team conceded less tries than any other super rugby franchise during his tenure.

The problem is he also didn't score many tries.

There is a demand in south africa right now for a ball in hand approach. Therefor the transformation issue can ctually provide another dimension as we have many skillful backs who may can add to exciting back play.

You just need to look at our sevens team and how transformation there has brought a successful running team.

All will be revealed in whether Coetzee does as promise, and that is to allow players to express themselves
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Post by Mr Fishpaste on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 4:36 pm

Your memory serves you well Biltong. AC's Stormers were the best defensive team in Super Rugby, but close to the lowest in terms of try scoring....Although having Mzwandile Stick as backline coach could mean a more attacking backline.

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Post by carpet baboon on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 5:33 pm

SecretFly wrote:
carpet baboon wrote:For ireland I think we need some pace oot wide  so one off Healy or gilroy should start.
They probably won't.


We also unfortunately need the usual rigid defence - I mean the kind that isn't needed so much at Pro12 level.  

So as we talk of pace, we must think of defensive robustness and wisdom too.  That's always Joe's biggest balancing act.  Have we the attacking dynamics to do a New Zealand philosophy on our games, as in "We'll score more than you"?  
Or is our lack of true cutting edge the very reason why people get annoyed with Schmidt's choices - as he's choosing players more for their determination in defence than for their pomp in attack?

I'm sure Schmidt wished all Provinces played like Connacht - at least then me might be in a position to attempt that "We'll score more than you" trick..

See I'm not sure they went with a arms race kinda mentality. Look at the final, Healy and Adi were never shown up on their wings, made good tackles and threw themselves I to rucks like missiles. They can defend. But just as importantly they offer a real "Christ on a bike" threat out wide.

And some times just that threat of pace on the wings will give the midfield a little extra room.

Any way that's my thinking. I love angry Andrew and little earls but I think we should try some blistering pace for a change

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Post by Notch on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 8:12 pm

Healy can defend better than Gilroy based on the Final. Gilroys defence will keep him out, probably.
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Post by Pot Hale on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 9:00 pm

Notch wrote:Healy can defend better than Gilroy based on the Final. Gilroys defence will keep him out, probably.

Agreed. He is weak in that area, yet Schmidt did select him in the end. Or was there anyone else left with more experience than Gilroy?
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Post by Rory_Gallagher on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 9:18 pm

Of course England and Wales select the likes of Watson or North based on their defensive capabilities. Really, Gilroy isn't that bad. Sometimes he is very good, actually. He isn't weaker than any other winger (such as DK who is strangely lauded as being defensively superior).

I would like to see a back three who are defensively solid enough but mostly great finishers and a real handful for the opposition.

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Post by Notch on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 9:48 pm

Pot Hale wrote:
Notch wrote:Healy can defend better than Gilroy based on the Final. Gilroys defence will keep him out, probably.

Agreed.  He is weak in that area, yet Schmidt did select him in the end.  Or was there anyone else left with more experience than Gilroy?

I think literally the only player he could have chosen is Fergus McFadden- after that you're down to looking at guys like Rory Scholes, Andrew Conway, Ronan O'Mahony, Niyi Adeolokun etc.
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Post by Notch on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 10:11 pm

Rory_Gallagher wrote:Of course England and Wales select the likes of Watson or North based on their defensive capabilities. Really, Gilroy isn't that bad. Sometimes he is very good, actually. He isn't weaker than any other winger (such as DK who is strangely lauded as being defensively superior).

He's not that bad, he just has a tendency to come too narrow and get caught out positionally. When compared to a guy like Trimble, who's probably the best defender we have in that position, there's a big gap. But thats not why I wouldn't pick him as first choice, I just feel that actually the incumbents are probably not that far off what he can bring in attack. He can finish exceptionally well and he has great feet and pace, but Earls and Trimble are both really good finishers too. I think Earls is just as quick as him and Trimble still isn't that far off when he gets a head of steam up. Trimble is less likely to beat a man on the outside but more likely to cross the gain line and he's a really intelligent player in the lines he picks... Basically I'm not seeing him as making a huge difference to our attack if he's selected. It's Adeolokun in Connacht who has the lighting pace to really scare defenders.

Kearney is probably lauded as being superior in defence because he isn't very threatening in attack. Then people think 'he must be getting picked for his defence' when actually, his defence is nothing special and suddenly he gets a reputation as a very good defender. He's solid enough but I've seen him get caught out and make mistakes in defence for Ireland before. I actually think he gets an overly hard time, he's a really decent all-rounder who isn't exceptional at anything. He's a good squad player and thats reflected by the fact he isn't first choice and hasn't been for a while. Since Earls got himself fit again really. I don't know people still fixate on him when he's usually just backup.
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Post by Rory_Gallagher on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 10:28 pm

I don't think the gap is that big. Trimble has had a few howlers defensively this season, but his reputation as a good defender transcends these mistakes. Also, it isn't so much about outright pace, rather it is Gilroy's strength in contact and the ability to change direction and step at high speed that sets him apart. He consistently beats a ridiculous number of defenders every game and this is something that could be very useful to Ireland.

As for why people focus on DK - I guess people are comparing him with Gilroy as he was the player Gilroy was brought in to replace in this squad. So he is obviously ahead in the pecking order (as well as being ahead of Healy).

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Post by profitius on Sat 04 Jun 2016, 11:02 pm

Dave kearney is being made a scapegoat because of Schmidts dour tactics. If there was ever a player who symbolised Schmidt's gameplan, its Dave Kearney. Not overly fast, not overly skillful, averaged sized, works hard, carries out the gameplan well, is good in the air, doesn't mind joining the breakdown, disciplined etc. the frustration people have towards Schmidt is aimed at DK much of the time.


I'd like to see a bit more of an attacking threat in the back 3. Rob kearney's injury opens up new possibilities. Henshaw looks the most likely to fill in there. He is just as solid as RK but is a far superior player. O'Halloran has looked excellent for Connacht this season. Not a Folau under the high ball but attack wise he can open up teams.


I hope Olding gets a start in at least one of the games. He hasn't been talked about much but is a great talent. When you look at it, there is a lot of talent in the Ireland backline. Olding, Henshaw, Marshall, Healy etc. I don't think all the doom and gloom is justified.


Going back to the Boks' style of play. If they play a wide game, they'll probably make some mistakes especially as they get used to the new setup. If they take the physical approach, its a more northern hemisphere style which Ireland are used to.
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Post by eirebilly on Sun 05 Jun 2016, 11:46 am

profitius wrote:Dave kearney is being made a scapegoat because of Schmidts dour tactics. If there was ever a player who symbolised Schmidt's gameplan, its Dave Kearney. Not overly fast, not overly skillful, averaged sized, works hard, carries out the gameplan well, is good in the air, doesn't mind joining the breakdown, disciplined etc. the frustration people have towards Schmidt is aimed at DK much of the time.


Have to agree with this prof and is pretty much the main reason I do like Schmidt as a coach.

Some coaches (Jones, Cotter, Lam etc) see the strength in the players available and adjust their game plans around them whereas Schmidt has a predefined game plan and forces his team to adjust to that. This approach is good for the less talented players as it brings them up a level but it is also detrimental to the better players as they are either not selected, played out of position or forced to drop their level to adjust to the game plan. This approach has a very limited shelf life as it becomes all too predictable and other coaches can counter it easily as we saw in the lead up to the RWC, the RWC and the 6N.

There is a wealth of talent in Ireland, so much so that a very talented team can be developed for the future but it has too be recognised and gambled on. Picking form players based only on injuries is not the way forward in my opinion.

I believe that Ireland will squeak one match in the SA tour (the first one) and then get beaten comfortably in the remaining games.
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Post by SecretFly on Sun 05 Jun 2016, 12:04 pm

eirebilly wrote:

I believe that Ireland will squeak one match in the SA tour (the first one) and then get beaten comfortably in the remaining games.

I do agree that we have one game in us, billy - if we don't then we shouldn't even go. We're bound to have enough to give it one real fine attempt.

But then it depends on which game that is in the sequence how much of a chance we have of getting a second. I think if the first game goes well and it's a stormer of sorts - and the South Africans feel they'd been hit with a surprise - then the second game gives us a good chance too. I think the players we have going - they'll benefit from a first win. I think there is a good chance of winning two IF we win the first one with a degree of comfort.

If we don't win that first one, then I think even getting one win becomes a tough tough hill to climb.

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Post by eirebilly on Sun 05 Jun 2016, 12:18 pm

I honestly do believe that Irelands best chance of a win will be in the first match, catching SA cold. Ireland are in decline and the loss of Sexton is huge. As good as I think Jackson (if he gets a match) is, he is going to need some time playing Internationally to feel comfortable. Schmidt really missed the bus in not giving him game time in the 6N and showed an inability to build squad depth. Only injuries forced him to make changes.
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Post by SecretFly on Sun 05 Jun 2016, 12:33 pm

"The loss of Sexton is huge."

You can't really say that and then say Schmidt shouldn't have been factoring in that notion into the Six Nations itself.  Not only was the idea of Sexton being central a notion back then, Sexton himself needed the Six Nations competition to set him up for the year that was ahead of us Internationally - and what a decisive year it is considering our opponents.

The Six Nations isn't getting any easier - England now present every bit as much a problem as South Africa - if not more so in terms of pacy and dynamic attack.  Wales were still a force.  Scotland have Cotter Wink so you can't take your eye off them either.  So it was sensible to use Six Nations to attempt to get Sexton up to speed again with his better form.

Jackson has his chance now and there can be no hiding place or excuses used.  He is where he wants to be... just like Sexton before him when O'Gara moved to the side.  He has to take his chance and play accordingly.

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Post by eirebilly on Sun 05 Jun 2016, 12:53 pm

Why cant that be said Fly? Jackson was clearly the form 10 in Ireland so should have been the back up to Sexton during the 6N, not Madigan and as such would have got some valuable International game time. Schmidt clearly missed the bus there.
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Post by SecretFly on Sun 05 Jun 2016, 1:22 pm

Nah, billy.  Madigan had his utility hat on.

But Jackson will miss the bus (at least until another International coach comes in) if he doesn't take this tour now by the horns.  He doesn't have to personally take charge of one, two or three wins - I'll be too busy looking at others to do their part in helping the cause there - but he does need to seal the idea that here is a 10 doing his part fully - at highest International level. I think he has it in him. Look forward to it. He might even have more of a youthful mind to kick Murray up the behind to get a faster delivery placed his way. Cool
Sexton does quite a bit more than sexy slinky kicks behind the opposition or those f**king raparounds - he gets stuck in to defence when needed too.  Often that's the part that captures my attention even more.  He doesn't categorise his role - he's there to play the 80...moans, groans, whines and all Wink

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Post by Pot Hale on Sun 05 Jun 2016, 1:37 pm

I think the third test is also a possibility for a win - depending on how the series goes.

Coetzee is in a far more invidious position than Schmidt for this series. A sports minister who can't keep his mouth shut and hangs him out to dry on his first appointment with comments like "if you can't beat the Irish, people are going to find out things they never knew about you".

So I reckon Coetzee has to go for the old reliables in the first and second tests and win both by any means possible. If he comes into third match with the series already in the bag, it gives him an opportunity to test out more of the newbies.

Schmidt may follow the same pattern - go all out to win the first test, and if they lose, another herculean effort for the second. If the series is already lost by the third match, then nothing to lose in giving the new lads a run out.



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Post by SecretFly on Sun 05 Jun 2016, 1:43 pm

Pot Hale wrote:

Coetzee is in a far more invidious position than Schmidt for this series.  A sports minister who can't keep his mouth shut and hangs him out to dry on his first appointment with comments like "if you can't beat the Irish, people are going to find out things they never knew about you".  



Why didn't someone tell me this earlier? This changes everything. Of course now I think we should even use a crooked ref or two to win all three games by a big margin. Sure that's a red flag to a bull to an Irish man - winning AND getting the low down secret dirt on Coetsee as a bonus!!!!


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Post by Notch on Sun 05 Jun 2016, 1:49 pm

Thats true prof, but the third test will all depend on who's left standing. If we pick up a lot of injuries in the first two we'll be in deep shoite regardless. I would say that will probably dictate who is picked for the third test.

As far as Jackson goes, I believe he can play at this level and play well but he has to get used to the idea that you don't get to have a few games to settle in at test level, where every game is a Final. You either seize the moment or let it pass you by. When Sexton came in to the team at first we were playing South Africa- albeit in Dublin, which is easier- and he basically performed pretty well right away. He would later go on to produce better rugby but it was a solid, competent performance that proved without doubt he could challenge O'Gara for the position and he could hold his own in test rugby. O'Gara was never a certain pick again after that day.

Jackson is lucky in that assuming he starts he can probably play just okay in the first test and still get picked for the second test but if he doesn't play well in any of the games there isn't going to be any debate whatsoever over who should be starting in November. Madigan got a similar opportunity in the RWC and let it slip by- I really believe Jackson can do better. It'll be the biggest test of his career but he's grown a lot as a player over this past season.

I just hope the pack can give him some sort of a platform to work with.
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Post by eirebilly on Sun 05 Jun 2016, 1:56 pm

SecretFly wrote:Nah, billy.  Madigan had his utility hat on.

But Jackson will miss the bus (at least until another International coach comes in) if he doesn't take this tour now by the horns.  He doesn't have to personally take charge of one, two or three wins - I'll be too busy looking at others to do their part in helping the cause there - but he does need to seal the idea that here is a 10 doing his part fully - at highest International level.  I think he has it in him.  Look forward to it.  He might even have more of a youthful mind to kick Murray up the behind to get a faster delivery placed his way.  

I think that is a little much there Fly. Jackson will take some time to get comfortable at International level so too judge him based on 3 matches against a very good team is a bit unfair. I would have higher expectations of Jackson had Schmidt given him game time during the 6N.

Should he not perform too a very high standard then that will look more bad on Schmidt than on himself due to his lack of game time at International level.
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