The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll)

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Post by Derbymanc on Sat Jun 11, 2016 8:15 pm

First topic message reminder :

Hopefully it will stop the arguments about Gib and we can tell Spain to pee off

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Post by JDizzle on Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:21 am

Purely anecdotally, the Welsh farmers I know are remarkably ignorant about how much money they get from the EU. Mother JD works on a farm and is a Remainer pretty much solely based on how much money they receive from the EU (as she is in the loop about that sort of thing) and on the bloody good job the Polish workers do, whereas friends my age, early 20s, who work on farms are just happy to work all the hours they can and get paid, and will vote Leave and then say "I didn't even know we got money from the EU'. About as boring a story as it gets, but is just a shame that people will be voting without knowing all the facts - even about their own personal situation!

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Post by Hero on Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:22 am

I do personally feel that Cameron would have been best to have taken a back seat in this, as shown on here and I suspect on a wider scale there's quite a number of people voting purely for Leave because he's leading the Remain camp.

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Post by ShahenshahG on Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:26 am

Munchkin wrote:
The Sandal Bomber wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:What is it with you guys who want to remain ?

Why is it that you just resort to insults and belittling people ?

Just because people want to leave the EU it does not make them village idiots all of a sudden. Every debate I have watched and listened to on this subject always descends into the the remain campaign taking the p1ss out of whoever is debating for the leave campaign. But I guess that's what happens when you start losing a debate.

There has been NOTHING from the remain campaign to convince me we will be better off staying in the EU, but the people who are championing a brexit speak with passion and they believe what they are saying.

I have looked at the pro's and cons. I will be a lot better off out of the EU, my mind is made up, and I am excited by the prospect of being in a position where I have an influence on things that happen in MY country.

Have you taken the advice provided yet and sorted out the bills which are costing your business money whilst your Local Authority fobs you off with false EU claims??

Oh, and to answer your first question, it's not our fault that Brexiteers makes themselves look like 'village idiots'.  Quickest route to not be spoken to like an idiot, is not speaking like an idiot.  Just a wee tip there for you. Though I suspect it will be ignored, like the advice provided, ignorance costing you thousands even before you'v voted LEAVE.

While the 'Remains' are making themselves look like tin hatted conspiracy theorists.

That was just for a bit of balance. Both sides look pretty dim, although the class clowns are in the Remain camp.

Eh?  If anything LEAVE are the conspiracy theorists - their entire campaign is built on conspriacy theory!!

ah, so you're another who is unable, or unwilling, to separate the wheat from the chaff.

So, when do you think WW3 is going to kick off? Just that I would like to stock up my bunker with enough tinned beans before people start pressing buttons.

Where exactly did he say that ww3 is going to kick off you complete cretin? Is it too difficult for you to distinguish between the argument in hand and the position of the leaders?

The problem with the debate is that it is being lead by cretins such as yourself. It's all bitching, fearmongering, hyperbole and insulting. Not much evidence of reasoning.

In answer to your question; Cameron never actually stated "WW3". He did say this:

“Can we be so sure peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking?,” he said. “I would never be so rash to make that assumption.”

“pivotal moments in European history: Blenheim, Trafalgar, Waterloo, our country’s heroism in the Great War and, most of all, our lone stand in 1940”.

“What happens in our neighbourhood matters to Britain. That was true in 1914, 1940, 1989…. and it is true in 2016.”

The implication is clear. In a worse case scenario, the UK leaving Europe could lead to a 1914 or a 1940. Emotional blackmail.

Now, just to let you know, I'm for Remain, even if borderline. What I find disheartening is the lack of leadership in the Remain campaign, and the extremely poor quality of debate. Pretty much a mirror image of what's being served up on this thread.

Again you complete moron. No one here was arguing that, hence the distinction between this debate and the debate on the idiot box. No one here was arguing that there was a chance of WW3. essentially you've come on halfway through a debate where Lorddowails (biggest idiot on this thread from either side or for that matter any debate ever debated) blamed the EU for Business rates - which are set by his local councils. So either he's a liar who doesn't run a business or a moron who is going to get it up the arse once reality bites. This is why he was getting insulted because he f*cking well deserved it for being a stupid c*nt not because he is a leave voter.





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Post by Rowley on Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:35 am

As a general point it is worrying how little most of us, myself included, actually know. There is one area of this whole debate, immigration, that I could make any realistic claim to knowledge about and the number of statements I hear on a daily basis on the subject that are either wrong, ill informed or just completely unrealistic or unworkable is staggering.

The thought we're all going to vote on something so important from positions of mutual ignorance is more than a little frightening.

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Post by Hero on Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:41 am

My ten year old probably has a better grasp of the pros and cons of the vote (as he keenly watched the news etc) than 80% of the voting public.


Last edited by Hero on Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:44 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Guest on Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:51 am

The Sandal Bomber wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
The Sandal Bomber wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:What is it with you guys who want to remain ?

Why is it that you just resort to insults and belittling people ?

Just because people want to leave the EU it does not make them village idiots all of a sudden. Every debate I have watched and listened to on this subject always descends into the the remain campaign taking the p1ss out of whoever is debating for the leave campaign. But I guess that's what happens when you start losing a debate.

There has been NOTHING from the remain campaign to convince me we will be better off staying in the EU, but the people who are championing a brexit speak with passion and they believe what they are saying.

I have looked at the pro's and cons. I will be a lot better off out of the EU, my mind is made up, and I am excited by the prospect of being in a position where I have an influence on things that happen in MY country.

Have you taken the advice provided yet and sorted out the bills which are costing your business money whilst your Local Authority fobs you off with false EU claims??

Oh, and to answer your first question, it's not our fault that Brexiteers makes themselves look like 'village idiots'.  Quickest route to not be spoken to like an idiot, is not speaking like an idiot.  Just a wee tip there for you. Though I suspect it will be ignored, like the advice provided, ignorance costing you thousands even before you'v voted LEAVE.

While the 'Remains' are making themselves look like tin hatted conspiracy theorists.

That was just for a bit of balance. Both sides look pretty dim, although the class clowns are in the Remain camp.

Eh?  If anything LEAVE are the conspiracy theorists - their entire campaign is built on conspriacy theory!!

ah, so you're another who is unable, or unwilling, to separate the wheat from the chaff.

So, when do you think WW3 is going to kick off? Just that I would like to stock up my bunker with enough tinned beans before people start pressing buttons.

Where exactly did he say that ww3 is going to kick off you complete cretin? Is it too difficult for you to distinguish between the argument in hand and the position of the leaders?

The problem with the debate is that it is being lead by cretins such as yourself. It's all bitching, fearmongering, hyperbole and insulting. Not much evidence of reasoning.

In answer to your question; Cameron never actually stated "WW3". He did say this:

“Can we be so sure peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking?,” he said. “I would never be so rash to make that assumption.”

“pivotal moments in European history: Blenheim, Trafalgar, Waterloo, our country’s heroism in the Great War and, most of all, our lone stand in 1940”.

“What happens in our neighbourhood matters to Britain. That was true in 1914, 1940, 1989…. and it is true in 2016.”

The implication is clear. In a worse case scenario, the UK leaving Europe could lead to a 1914 or a 1940. Emotional blackmail.

Now, just to let you know, I'm for Remain, even if borderline. What I find disheartening is the lack of leadership in the Remain campaign, and the extremely poor quality of debate. Pretty much a mirror image of what's being served up on this thread.

Again you complete moron. No one here was arguing that, hence the distinction between this debate and the debate on the idiot box. No one here was arguing that there was a chance of WW3. essentially you've come on halfway through a debate where Lorddowails (biggest idiot on this thread from either side or for that matter any debate ever debated) blamed the EU for Business rates - which are set by his local councils. So either he's a liar who doesn't run a business or a moron who is going to get it up the arse once reality bites. This is why he was getting insulted because he f*cking well deserved it for being a stupid c*nt not because he is a leave voter.





You jumped in to a conversation frothing at the mouth in a misguided effort to win a pointless point.

By 'he' I now assume you refer to 'Tophat' and not Cameron who implied the future catastrophic consequence. Just as most of the politicians involved in this debate; you are as clear as mud.

I'm not sure why you're rambling about LD, but you do a sterling job in demonstrating what is wrong with this debate. Unlike these posters who have made very clear, very reasonable, points since my previous reply to you.

I'm cutting you lose now. Not much point hanging unto dead weight.

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Post by ShahenshahG on Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:54 am

Munchkin wrote:
The Sandal Bomber wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
The Sandal Bomber wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:What is it with you guys who want to remain ?

Why is it that you just resort to insults and belittling people ?

Just because people want to leave the EU it does not make them village idiots all of a sudden. Every debate I have watched and listened to on this subject always descends into the the remain campaign taking the p1ss out of whoever is debating for the leave campaign. But I guess that's what happens when you start losing a debate.

There has been NOTHING from the remain campaign to convince me we will be better off staying in the EU, but the people who are championing a brexit speak with passion and they believe what they are saying.

I have looked at the pro's and cons. I will be a lot better off out of the EU, my mind is made up, and I am excited by the prospect of being in a position where I have an influence on things that happen in MY country.

Have you taken the advice provided yet and sorted out the bills which are costing your business money whilst your Local Authority fobs you off with false EU claims??

Oh, and to answer your first question, it's not our fault that Brexiteers makes themselves look like 'village idiots'.  Quickest route to not be spoken to like an idiot, is not speaking like an idiot.  Just a wee tip there for you. Though I suspect it will be ignored, like the advice provided, ignorance costing you thousands even before you'v voted LEAVE.

While the 'Remains' are making themselves look like tin hatted conspiracy theorists.

That was just for a bit of balance. Both sides look pretty dim, although the class clowns are in the Remain camp.

Eh?  If anything LEAVE are the conspiracy theorists - their entire campaign is built on conspriacy theory!!

ah, so you're another who is unable, or unwilling, to separate the wheat from the chaff.

So, when do you think WW3 is going to kick off? Just that I would like to stock up my bunker with enough tinned beans before people start pressing buttons.

Where exactly did he say that ww3 is going to kick off you complete cretin? Is it too difficult for you to distinguish between the argument in hand and the position of the leaders?

The problem with the debate is that it is being lead by cretins such as yourself. It's all bitching, fearmongering, hyperbole and insulting. Not much evidence of reasoning.

In answer to your question; Cameron never actually stated "WW3". He did say this:

“Can we be so sure peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking?,” he said. “I would never be so rash to make that assumption.”

“pivotal moments in European history: Blenheim, Trafalgar, Waterloo, our country’s heroism in the Great War and, most of all, our lone stand in 1940”.

“What happens in our neighbourhood matters to Britain. That was true in 1914, 1940, 1989…. and it is true in 2016.”

The implication is clear. In a worse case scenario, the UK leaving Europe could lead to a 1914 or a 1940. Emotional blackmail.

Now, just to let you know, I'm for Remain, even if borderline. What I find disheartening is the lack of leadership in the Remain campaign, and the extremely poor quality of debate. Pretty much a mirror image of what's being served up on this thread.

Again you complete moron. No one here was arguing that, hence the distinction between this debate and the debate on the idiot box. No one here was arguing that there was a chance of WW3. essentially you've come on halfway through a debate where Lorddowails (biggest idiot on this thread from either side or for that matter any debate ever debated) blamed the EU for Business rates - which are set by his local councils. So either he's a liar who doesn't run a business or a moron who is going to get it up the arse once reality bites. This is why he was getting insulted because he f*cking well deserved it for being a stupid c*nt not because he is a leave voter.





You jumped in to a conversation frothing at the mouth in a misguided effort to win a pointless point.

By 'he' I now assume you refer to 'Tophat' and not Cameron who implied the event. Just as most of the politicians involved in this debate; you are as clear as mud.

I'm not sure why you're rambling about LD, but you do a sterling job in demonstrating what is wrong with this debate. Unlike these posters who have made very clear, very reasonable, points since my previous reply to you.

I'm cutting you lose now. Not much point hanging unto dead weight.

A gracious exit. clap Ta Ra


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Post by Volcanicash on Wed Jun 15, 2016 7:10 am

Alex germany thanks for the reply, I didn’t actually think anyone would break down my post like that so fair play.

The Calais jungle will move to Kent - Responsibility for managing the migrants will fall to the ferry companies, so prices and hassle will increase. More migrants will get through, so some provision will have to be made in Kent for them.

Re Calais – we have a bilateral deal with the French not connected to the eu, I accept there are fears about it I just think they are misplaced, as all the hysteria came through 1 minister, which was later quashed by the French government and the mayor of Calais.

We will be 4000 worse off per household by 2030 - That is not a claim from the Remain camp. That is a broad consensus from economists, and is backed up fully by the views of the currency markets.

Discredited by the Treasury select committee - “Neither government departments or other spokespeople for the remain side should repeat this mistaken assertion, to persist with this claim would misrepresent the treasury’s own work”  Need I say more.

We may lose Gibraltar - Not sure if anyone has said that. The UK will probably live with the alternative of no trade deal until Spain accepts Gibraltar (ie never).

Reported in various papers due to The Spanish foreign minister Jose Manuelle Garcia Margello quoted as saying 'I have defended the UK position in parliament and I have said that if, God forbid, the UK leaves, then Europe – or at least the 19 countries that share a currency – has to take a giant leap toward federalisation, toward the United States of Europe, so that the UK's exit is not interpreted as the European project starting to melt,' he said.

'It's true that this gives us an opportunity to have an even more important role than the one we already have with the United States, and don't forget about one other thing: we'll be talking about Gibraltar the very next day,'    Also has been in the past quoted to say it would be unimaginable for Gibralter to be outside the eu.  

Gibralters minister hyped things up by saying Spain could “pounce” on them.  Personally I thinks its all hyperbole which seems to have been par of the course throughout the remain campaign.

The us will put us "at the back of the queue" - That's pretty much what Obama said.

Agreed, but considering he’s pretty much packing his bags from the white house, I take his opinions with a not so generous pinch of salt, considering we have a lot of ties with the us already, re defence and investments etc.  

An Australian points system will increase migration - Probably false. Migration is primarily driven by economics. A weaker UK economy will attract fewer migrants. As far as Poles are concerned, UK salaries have already dropped 10% and a Brexit vote would knock another 20% off salaries.

Absolutely agree.  But the uk economy will have to tank before it becomes unattractive to migrants from poor countries.

We could have recession worse than since the first world war - Who said that? We'd have a few percent off growth for a few years. That would of course jeopardise the deficit recovery plans.

Ha Andrew Neil said this as he was dissecting and discrediting the lagarde imf report where an economist/s says we could lose up to 9.5% gdp.  Again pure hyperbole.

Housing prices will fall - Certainly in $/€ terms. Recessions always put pressure on house prices, so they could fall.

Hurrah, lets hope so Fingers Crossed  

[Pensions will be at risk - A poorer country won't be able to afford to keep increasing pensions.

I’m in my 30,s so I’ll probably have to be working another 50 years until I qualify, so frankly I’m not that bothered about this but I do have relatives heading that way  who I know haven’t been swayed, but its still a disgraceful tactic.

[Stephen Hawking says we should stay so....you know, it's Stephen Hawking so he must be right –Yes

Ha shamefully I know someone who actually thinks this and they can’t be reasoned with, ironically, lol.

The continent will be more at risk of war etc - Certainly western Europe would be weakened, and once Scotland splits, then NATO is seriously weakened. That is why Russia is hoping for a Brexit.

NO guarantee Scotland splits, but if it does that doesn’t bother me that much to be honest.  The SNP are such a paradox.

They claim putin backs brexit (I challenge anyone to find anyone to find a statement from Putin or the Russian government on this and also all the other claims point by point on how they have been based and formed, and come to these conclusions) - I doubt you'll find a Putin a statement, though Russia Today and the Krembots are probably pushing Brexit. Anyone read that crap?

Nope, but that’s also like saying if the BBC supports Russian Oligarchs then the government must be in favour.  There may be grains of truth there, but I personally think the more people claim Putin backs Brexit they need to back up there claim than just Russian media coverage, especially when its an attempt to portray the brexit campaign in a negative light.

Oh and the Eu is now reformed so everything is tickety boo.   - LOL, it will always be a messy battleground between Governments and bureaucracy. As an example: The "democratic deficit" exists because sovereign Governments don't want to give too much power to another elected body. So EU Governments make the decisions, not the EU bureaucrats.

I made that comment in jest, but if remain wins it won’t be just business as usual, the eu will feel vindicated that all the spin, and propaganda has worked, and the integrating will accelerate

We can get back our sovereignty - We never lost it. We pool some of it. If you see this as a loss, then we must leave NATO at once.

I guess it depends on how you interpret “pooling” and “sovereignty”  My view is if your acceding power from one government to the other, that isn’t “pooling”, that is relinquishing your authority and submitting it to an outside body.  This is the eu.  Nato hasn’t done this to us, they haven’t replaced us on the WTO, They can’t outvote us, while having to abide by proposals without input and very minimal influence, to me that isn’t “pooling”.  

Europe is at a high water mark for "closer union". There is no appetite for "Ever closer union" across Europe. Only Brussels bureaucrats still dream this and they're not in charge. The only further centralisation of power will be where it is essential to make pre-agreed schemes work: Predominantly for the Euro area (nothing to worry the UK), and to some extent the Single Market (which benefits the UK). A United States of Europe or Ever Closer Union is history.

I bet that’s what you would have said joining the “common market” in 1975, no?  Brussels bureaucrats are in charge,

Like Mps in the house of commons they have to swear an oath and part of it says ““in the performance of my tasks, neither to seek nor take instructions from any other institution, body, office or entity.”   You should check out the 5 presidents report, easy to google search, they’re also looking at eu type of national insurance scheme, again further proof that we’re not at the top of the cliff just yet.

Democratic accountability: Would you like a sovereign EU parliament able to make any law it sees fit and strike down national laws, without recourse to national Governments? Then you'd have democratic accountability at a EU level.

No, not particularly but I would certainly prefer something along those lines than the commission.

The Governments don't want that as they want to stay in charge. That's why they appointed irrelevants like Baroness Ashton in her role. That's why it's France and Germany who go and push Russia and Ukraine to talk, and not the EU. That's why any country can and will block Turkey other countries (Turkey, the UK?) from joining the club.

No they want all the illusion of being in charge with all the luxuries and trimmings without any added responsibility.
Again you need to ask yourself why do they all want to stay in the eu?  Is trade really the be all and end all for peoples decisions?  Again my view is frankly that’s insane, and a vote for remain will be what all the government want you to do.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:02 am

EU referendum poll
Remain: 46% (-6)
Leave: 45% (+4)
(via ComRes, phone)


11 point lead for Remain gets cut to 1. Astonishing.

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Post by LordDowlais on Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:32 am

The Sandal Bomber wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
The Sandal Bomber wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:What is it with you guys who want to remain ?

Why is it that you just resort to insults and belittling people ?

Just because people want to leave the EU it does not make them village idiots all of a sudden. Every debate I have watched and listened to on this subject always descends into the the remain campaign taking the p1ss out of whoever is debating for the leave campaign. But I guess that's what happens when you start losing a debate.

There has been NOTHING from the remain campaign to convince me we will be better off staying in the EU, but the people who are championing a brexit speak with passion and they believe what they are saying.

I have looked at the pro's and cons. I will be a lot better off out of the EU, my mind is made up, and I am excited by the prospect of being in a position where I have an influence on things that happen in MY country.

Have you taken the advice provided yet and sorted out the bills which are costing your business money whilst your Local Authority fobs you off with false EU claims??

Oh, and to answer your first question, it's not our fault that Brexiteers makes themselves look like 'village idiots'.  Quickest route to not be spoken to like an idiot, is not speaking like an idiot.  Just a wee tip there for you. Though I suspect it will be ignored, like the advice provided, ignorance costing you thousands even before you'v voted LEAVE.

While the 'Remains' are making themselves look like tin hatted conspiracy theorists.

That was just for a bit of balance. Both sides look pretty dim, although the class clowns are in the Remain camp.

Eh?  If anything LEAVE are the conspiracy theorists - their entire campaign is built on conspriacy theory!!

ah, so you're another who is unable, or unwilling, to separate the wheat from the chaff.

So, when do you think WW3 is going to kick off? Just that I would like to stock up my bunker with enough tinned beans before people start pressing buttons.

Where exactly did he say that ww3 is going to kick off you complete cretin? Is it too difficult for you to distinguish between the argument in hand and the position of the leaders?

The problem with the debate is that it is being lead by cretins such as yourself. It's all bitching, fearmongering, hyperbole and insulting. Not much evidence of reasoning.

In answer to your question; Cameron never actually stated "WW3". He did say this:

“Can we be so sure peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking?,” he said. “I would never be so rash to make that assumption.”

“pivotal moments in European history: Blenheim, Trafalgar, Waterloo, our country’s heroism in the Great War and, most of all, our lone stand in 1940”.

“What happens in our neighbourhood matters to Britain. That was true in 1914, 1940, 1989…. and it is true in 2016.”

The implication is clear. In a worse case scenario, the UK leaving Europe could lead to a 1914 or a 1940. Emotional blackmail.

Now, just to let you know, I'm for Remain, even if borderline. What I find disheartening is the lack of leadership in the Remain campaign, and the extremely poor quality of debate. Pretty much a mirror image of what's being served up on this thread.

Again you complete moron. No one here was arguing that, hence the distinction between this debate and the debate on the idiot box. No one here was arguing that there was a chance of WW3. essentially you've come on halfway through a debate where Lorddowails (biggest idiot on this thread from either side or for that matter any debate ever debated) blamed the EU for Business rates - which are set by his local councils. So either he's a liar who doesn't run a business or a moron who is going to get it up the arse once reality bites. This is why he was getting insulted because he f*cking well deserved it for being a stupid c*nt not because he is a leave voter.





Who the bloody hell do you think you are ?

I have not just gone into this and said what I think. You are a muppet of the highest order. Why don't you go and find out who makes the rules. The local councils are working under the guidance of th EU. I am not going into it on here but I have taken my plight to the highest point I can take it, there is so much red tape with this issue that comes from Brussels I cannot be bothered. To go on about it. Take your head out of your arris. You are everything that is wrong with this country you arrogant naughty naughty boy.

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Post by Rowley on Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:46 am

Do know what I think is wrong with this country? Hyperbole.

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Post by ShahenshahG on Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:50 am

LordDowlais wrote:
The Sandal Bomber wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
The Sandal Bomber wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:What is it with you guys who want to remain ?

Why is it that you just resort to insults and belittling people ?

Just because people want to leave the EU it does not make them village idiots all of a sudden. Every debate I have watched and listened to on this subject always descends into the the remain campaign taking the p1ss out of whoever is debating for the leave campaign. But I guess that's what happens when you start losing a debate.

There has been NOTHING from the remain campaign to convince me we will be better off staying in the EU, but the people who are championing a brexit speak with passion and they believe what they are saying.

I have looked at the pro's and cons. I will be a lot better off out of the EU, my mind is made up, and I am excited by the prospect of being in a position where I have an influence on things that happen in MY country.

Have you taken the advice provided yet and sorted out the bills which are costing your business money whilst your Local Authority fobs you off with false EU claims??

Oh, and to answer your first question, it's not our fault that Brexiteers makes themselves look like 'village idiots'.  Quickest route to not be spoken to like an idiot, is not speaking like an idiot.  Just a wee tip there for you. Though I suspect it will be ignored, like the advice provided, ignorance costing you thousands even before you'v voted LEAVE.

While the 'Remains' are making themselves look like tin hatted conspiracy theorists.

That was just for a bit of balance. Both sides look pretty dim, although the class clowns are in the Remain camp.

Eh?  If anything LEAVE are the conspiracy theorists - their entire campaign is built on conspriacy theory!!

ah, so you're another who is unable, or unwilling, to separate the wheat from the chaff.

So, when do you think WW3 is going to kick off? Just that I would like to stock up my bunker with enough tinned beans before people start pressing buttons.

Where exactly did he say that ww3 is going to kick off you complete cretin? Is it too difficult for you to distinguish between the argument in hand and the position of the leaders?

The problem with the debate is that it is being lead by cretins such as yourself. It's all bitching, fearmongering, hyperbole and insulting. Not much evidence of reasoning.

In answer to your question; Cameron never actually stated "WW3". He did say this:

“Can we be so sure peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking?,” he said. “I would never be so rash to make that assumption.”

“pivotal moments in European history: Blenheim, Trafalgar, Waterloo, our country’s heroism in the Great War and, most of all, our lone stand in 1940”.

“What happens in our neighbourhood matters to Britain. That was true in 1914, 1940, 1989…. and it is true in 2016.”

The implication is clear. In a worse case scenario, the UK leaving Europe could lead to a 1914 or a 1940. Emotional blackmail.

Now, just to let you know, I'm for Remain, even if borderline. What I find disheartening is the lack of leadership in the Remain campaign, and the extremely poor quality of debate. Pretty much a mirror image of what's being served up on this thread.

Again you complete moron. No one here was arguing that, hence the distinction between this debate and the debate on the idiot box. No one here was arguing that there was a chance of WW3. essentially you've come on halfway through a debate where Lorddowails (biggest idiot on this thread from either side or for that matter any debate ever debated) blamed the EU for Business rates - which are set by his local councils. So either he's a liar who doesn't run a business or a moron who is going to get it up the arse once reality bites. This is why he was getting insulted because he f*cking well deserved it for being a stupid c*nt not because he is a leave voter.





Who the bloody hell do you think you are ?

I have not just gone into this and said what I think. You are a muppet of the highest order. Why don't you go and find out who makes the rules. The local councils are working under the guidance of th EU. I am not going into it on here but I have taken my plight to the highest point I can take it, there is so much red tape with this issue that comes from Brussels I cannot be bothered. To go on about it. Take your head out of your arris. You are everything that is wrong with this country you arrogant naughty naughty boy.

laughing You don't know how right you are Nigel

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Post by mikey_dragon on Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:07 am

JuliusHMarx wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:.....Does/has EU money ever benefitted the impoverished areas in Wales? The two I alluded to, no, and probably not places like Merthyr and countless others either.

Out of curiosity, I googled merthyr tydfil eu money and the first result was this - http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/asked-people-south-wales-valleys-11157022
"Town centre regeneration programmes in Aberdare, Ebbw Vale and Merthyr are among the things that have benefited" from EU money.

Good man for actually doing it and bringing something here. It's nice to talk with people on both sides of the campaign and learn some new things, which in between the bickering and petty jibes from some of the low-lives in your remain faction is what I've done. I mentioned Merthyr because LD told me they had a new shopping centre, he didn't mention whether or not all of its funding came from the EU... I'm still a bit bitter that Newport didn't get it instead.

This article is quite poor to be honest but at least it comes across neutral. It's a bit misleading when you get to the figure "Is the UK better off in or out of the EU?" for both sides. What bugged me the most with that one is "Stay: Millions of jobs would be lost as global manufacturers move to lower-cost EU countries." That's gone on a heck of a lot ever since Thatcher sold Britain, especially in south Wales! But anyway, going by the article interviewees and subscribers, a slight majority still want to vote out... It was interesting to read this too, as now it can be seen I'm not the only one:
"But there are claims that all this money (£1.9 billion between 2007 and 2013) has failed to lift communities out of deprivation .

And, it's true, there is still plenty of deprivation to be seen..."

That was my point in the beginning, at my first comment of today, and we know this through living here. The leavers didn't listen to the residents however, they chose to go on about farming, etc... It's good to realise that parts of Wales have benefitted from EU funding - but it's nowhere near as much as Remain keeps making out, and if you went to Ebbw Vale or Pontypool for instance you'd probably realise this yourself.

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Post by Guest on Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:41 pm

I am thinking out loud here - I am sorry if this has already been answered earlier.

I am thinking if the British population decide to vote to leave the EU why would that be such a bad thing?  I thought democracy was supposed to be a good thing?  

We could decide to keep our trading relationships with the EU exactly the same as before if we wanted to.  Why would the EC declare war on Britain?  Why would they open up a trade war?  That wouldn't benefit anyone.  

Britain came to the rescue of the continent when Napoleon was conquering Spain, Portugal, the Germanic States etc.  Britain came to the rescue of the continent during WWI & WWII.  Why would the EC now declare war on Britain?

Britain introduced the concept of free trade to the world - isn't free trade a good thing?

Some "remainers" say the NHS would collapse because it is staffed by EU nationals.  But why would we sack them?  We could continue to employ them if we wanted to.

The more I think about it the more I think the arguments presented by the remainers are desperate and ludicrous.  But maybe I am wrong.

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Post by Ent on Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:14 pm

Bit of the little englanders about that statement. Especially regarding 70 and 100 year old wars.

The trade deal wouldn't benefit the eu as it would probably encourage other member states to think about leaving.

The Germans aren't having any of the U.K. Getting a free trade deal.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

You can re read the thread for the arguments for remain, the idea the uk can just do what it wants with no repercussions is fantasy.

The U.K. Already has a good deal with Europe, not in the eurozone etc Cameron's decision re benefits has been approved.

With regards the nhs, the removal of the working time directive will result in current staff leaving. Any effect on the economy will reduce the money available (leave have promised what is paid in to so many groups it will not plug any gaps). Lastly on immigration (I work I the nhs) I worked with an Australian doc who was married to a uk citizen and genuinely a world expert in his field, took him almost 2 years to get his immigration sorted out. Nhs can't cope with widespread delays in recruiting staff like that.

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Post by Hero on Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:23 pm

If we've harkening on about Napeleonic Wars etc for trade deals Im so playing the 'We enslaved half the world, like buggery will they welcome us into trade deals' card.

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Post by ShahenshahG on Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:36 pm

Nore Staat wrote:I am thinking out loud here - I am sorry if this has already been answered earlier.

I am thinking if the British population decide to vote to leave the EU why would that be such a bad thing?  I thought democracy was supposed to be a good thing?  

We could decide to keep our trading relationships with the EU exactly the same as before if we wanted to.  Why would the EC declare war on Britain?  Why would they open up a trade war?  That wouldn't benefit anyone.  

Britain came to the rescue of the continent when Napoleon was conquering Spain, Portugal, the Germanic States etc.  Britain came to the rescue of the continent during WWI & WWII.  Why would the EC now declare war on Britain?


Britain introduced the concept of free trade to the world - isn't free trade a good thing?

Some "remainers" say the NHS would collapse because it is staffed by EU nationals.  But why would we sack them?  We could continue to employ them if we wanted to.

The more I think about it the more I think the arguments presented by the remainers are desperate and ludicrous.  But maybe I am wrong.

All fair points, except that the EU will be bricking itself that other countries will take Britains example and leave. So they won't be amenable to the easy solution you've put out up there lest all the other's start legging it too. So they'd take the short term damage to make us pay for it and other countries in the EU which do not have an economy as resilient as our own will blanch at the prospect of the massive nosedive. What is a pretty torrid time for us would be veritable destruction to most of the others. It's just not in the interest of the EU to make it easy even though as you said it would make sense. Also, I suspect any early resolution of the trade will hinge on our acceptance of the free movement of people's thereby eliminating the reason for any exit anyway. Also you have to remember if the result is as tight as we think it will be the Mp's might decide to ignore the referendum...it's not legally binding. Whatever happens, there is going to be a big f*cking mess to clean up afterwards and each and everyone of these b*stards are going to get it in the neck.

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Post by LordDowlais on Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:06 pm

If the UK decides to leave, the rest will fall like domino's. Germany are getting restless. I was in Germany two weeks ago. The AFD or the Alternative For Germany party are gaining ground and are wanting out, as are the public.

The French are getting fed up as well. They are wanting out. Trust me when we go they will all go.

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Post by superflyweight on Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:34 pm

LordDowlais wrote:If the UK decides to leave, the rest will fall like domino's. Germany are getting restless. I was in Germany two weeks ago. The AFD or the Alternative For Germany party are gaining ground and are wanting out, as are the public.

The French are getting fed up as well. They are wanting out. Trust me when we go they will all go.

I went to Germany once. Can I also pretend to understand the political climate and speak for the German public?

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Post by Coxy001 on Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:40 pm

superflyweight wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:If the UK decides to leave, the rest will fall like domino's. Germany are getting restless. I was in Germany two weeks ago. The AFD or the Alternative For Germany party are gaining ground and are wanting out, as are the public.

The French are getting fed up as well. They are wanting out. Trust me when we go they will all go.

I went to Germany once.  Can I also pretend to understand the political climate and speak for the German public?

I was in a German once. She wanted me to remain in.

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Post by ShahenshahG on Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:47 pm

Coxy001 wrote:
superflyweight wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:If the UK decides to leave, the rest will fall like domino's. Germany are getting restless. I was in Germany two weeks ago. The AFD or the Alternative For Germany party are gaining ground and are wanting out, as are the public.

The French are getting fed up as well. They are wanting out. Trust me when we go they will all go.

I went to Germany once.  Can I also pretend to understand the political climate and speak for the German public?

I was in a German once. She wanted me to remain in.

Some people like to keep their sh*t to themselves

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Post by Coxy001 on Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:50 pm

The Sandal Bomber wrote:
Coxy001 wrote:
superflyweight wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:If the UK decides to leave, the rest will fall like domino's. Germany are getting restless. I was in Germany two weeks ago. The AFD or the Alternative For Germany party are gaining ground and are wanting out, as are the public.

The French are getting fed up as well. They are wanting out. Trust me when we go they will all go.

I went to Germany once.  Can I also pretend to understand the political climate and speak for the German public?

I was in a German once. She wanted me to remain in.

Some people like to keep their sh*t to themselves

I prefer to flush mine down the toilet personally. Each to their own though I guess.

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Post by ShahenshahG on Wed Jun 15, 2016 7:07 pm

Coxy001 wrote:
The Sandal Bomber wrote:
Coxy001 wrote:
superflyweight wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:If the UK decides to leave, the rest will fall like domino's. Germany are getting restless. I was in Germany two weeks ago. The AFD or the Alternative For Germany party are gaining ground and are wanting out, as are the public.

The French are getting fed up as well. They are wanting out. Trust me when we go they will all go.

I went to Germany once.  Can I also pretend to understand the political climate and speak for the German public?

I was in a German once. She wanted me to remain in.

Some people like to keep their sh*t to themselves

I prefer to flush mine down the toilet personally. Each to their own though I guess.

EU regulations mean hers was too small. Vote Leave

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Wed Jun 15, 2016 7:09 pm

Duty281 wrote:Except our economy does not benefit from being in the EU.

This country had the 4th largest economy in the world in 1960 - this similar level has always been achieved with or without the EU. Our trade has certainly been harmed by being in the EU - no free trade with the USA, Canada or India, to name just a few.

Open Europe - the only truly independent economic organisation - get it right when they say that Leaving will make a negligible difference to our economy. The ones in the pocket of the EU, with dodgy track records - like the CBI or the IMF - will always pretend otherwise.

There are no benefits to being in the EU which Greece - once home to the greatest civilisation that our species has ever known - have found out to a devastating degree.

Please don't tell me that you blame the EU in the 20th century, as opposed to the Romans at the Battle of Corinth in 146 BC, for the collapse of Ancient Greece?! Also, just on the topic of Greece in the 20h century, the financial mismanagement of the Greek economy and corruption throughout all levels of government was mind blowing - nothing to do with the EU. Where the EU as a concept did struggle was around the bail-out and solutions to the Greece problem, which highlighted the flaws of a single currency incorporating divergent economies such as a soundly managed economy (e.g. Germany) and a basket case (e.g. Greece). It's why the UK shouldn't join the Euro, and have been right to stay out.

As for your points on the economy, what your very high level and simplistic stance (i.e. we were big before the EU and we'll be big after it and all these naysayers about the wonderful trade deals we'll get don't know what they're talking about) fails to address change. It assumes all that works well now, will work well after a Leave vote, and that all the good stuff will happen. So, for example, all the companies that are telling people that redundancies will happen as they look to shift business out of the UK and into the EU (e.g. Citi, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs) will obviously have an impact on our economy. The Leave response to this is always, as ever, simplistic: who cares, those bankers nearly ruined us and we'll be better off without them. That is, obviously, nonsense. The UK needs highly skilled and highly paid people in jobs. They pay taxes, and taxes are useful for governments who want to invest in public services. The other responses is that this is just scaremongering. No, it isn't. All of our financial regulation is driven from the EU, and that allows the free provision of services from the UK throughout the EU. There is little to no sense in using London as your European HQ if London isn't part of Europe. A Leave vote will be a massive boost for Paris/Frankfurt. London will be impacted, no question. It's why London as a City is heavily in favour of Remain, and if those outside of London don't think there will be a knock-on effect, they only have to hark back to 2008 to realise that when London sneezes, the rest of the UK catches a cold (think jobs and house prices).

So, to keep it nice and simple:

Short term economic effect: very bad.
Medium term economic effect: bad.
Long term economic effect: I have no idea, but neither do you.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:12 pm

funnyExiledScot wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Except our economy does not benefit from being in the EU.

This country had the 4th largest economy in the world in 1960 - this similar level has always been achieved with or without the EU. Our trade has certainly been harmed by being in the EU - no free trade with the USA, Canada or India, to name just a few.

Open Europe - the only truly independent economic organisation - get it right when they say that Leaving will make a negligible difference to our economy. The ones in the pocket of the EU, with dodgy track records - like the CBI or the IMF - will always pretend otherwise.

There are no benefits to being in the EU which Greece - once home to the greatest civilisation that our species has ever known - have found out to a devastating degree.

Please don't tell me that you blame the EU in the 20th century, as opposed to the Romans at the Battle of Corinth in 146 BC, for the collapse of Ancient Greece?! Also, just on the topic of Greece in the 20h century, the financial mismanagement of the Greek economy and corruption throughout all levels of government was mind blowing - nothing to do with the EU. Where the EU as a concept did struggle was around the bail-out and solutions to the Greece problem, which highlighted the flaws of a single currency incorporating divergent economies such as a soundly managed economy (e.g. Germany) and a basket case (e.g. Greece). It's why the UK shouldn't join the Euro, and have been right to stay out.

As for your points on the economy, what your very high level and simplistic stance (i.e. we were big before the EU and we'll be big after it and all these naysayers about the wonderful trade deals we'll get don't know what they're talking about) fails to address change. It assumes all that works well now, will work well after a Leave vote, and that all the good stuff will happen. So, for example, all the companies that are telling people that redundancies will happen as they look to shift business out of the UK and into the EU (e.g. Citi, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs) will obviously have an impact on our economy. The Leave response to this is always, as ever, simplistic: who cares, those bankers nearly ruined us and we'll be better off without them. That is, obviously, nonsense. The UK needs highly skilled and highly paid people in jobs. They pay taxes, and taxes are useful for governments who want to invest in public services. The other responses is that this is just scaremongering. No, it isn't. All of our financial regulation is driven from the EU, and that allows the free provision of services from the UK throughout the EU. There is little to no sense in using London as your European HQ if London isn't part of Europe. A Leave vote will be a massive boost for Paris/Frankfurt. London will be impacted, no question. It's why London as a City is heavily in favour of Remain, and if those outside of London don't think there will be a knock-on effect, they only have to hark back to 2008 to realise that when London sneezes, the rest of the UK catches a cold (think jobs and house prices).

So, to keep it nice and simple:

Short term economic effect: very bad.
Medium term economic effect: bad.
Long term economic effect: I have no idea, but neither do you.

London is not heavily in favour of Remain, one poll recently had Leave 56-44 ahead in London.

The majority must recognise, as indeed many of us also do, that the outdated EU brings us no benefits whatsoever, and is a great hindrance to our nation.

In the long-term, being able to strike free trade deals with the USA, Canada, India and Brazil (among others) will be of a huge benefit to our economy - much more so than clinging to this idea of Europe being the centre of our world. But the Remain campaign don't understand this, as they have no vision.

The same threats, by the way, were made if the UK didn't join the Euro - investment will collapse, jobs will go etc. The same tired scaremongering with no merit whatsoever is merely being repeated.

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Post by superflyweight on Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:25 pm

Duty281 wrote:
funnyExiledScot wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Except our economy does not benefit from being in the EU.

This country had the 4th largest economy in the world in 1960 - this similar level has always been achieved with or without the EU. Our trade has certainly been harmed by being in the EU - no free trade with the USA, Canada or India, to name just a few.

Open Europe - the only truly independent economic organisation - get it right when they say that Leaving will make a negligible difference to our economy. The ones in the pocket of the EU, with dodgy track records - like the CBI or the IMF - will always pretend otherwise.

There are no benefits to being in the EU which Greece - once home to the greatest civilisation that our species has ever known - have found out to a devastating degree.

Please don't tell me that you blame the EU in the 20th century, as opposed to the Romans at the Battle of Corinth in 146 BC, for the collapse of Ancient Greece?! Also, just on the topic of Greece in the 20h century, the financial mismanagement of the Greek economy and corruption throughout all levels of government was mind blowing - nothing to do with the EU. Where the EU as a concept did struggle was around the bail-out and solutions to the Greece problem, which highlighted the flaws of a single currency incorporating divergent economies such as a soundly managed economy (e.g. Germany) and a basket case (e.g. Greece). It's why the UK shouldn't join the Euro, and have been right to stay out.

As for your points on the economy, what your very high level and simplistic stance (i.e. we were big before the EU and we'll be big after it and all these naysayers about the wonderful trade deals we'll get don't know what they're talking about) fails to address change. It assumes all that works well now, will work well after a Leave vote, and that all the good stuff will happen. So, for example, all the companies that are telling people that redundancies will happen as they look to shift business out of the UK and into the EU (e.g. Citi, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs) will obviously have an impact on our economy. The Leave response to this is always, as ever, simplistic: who cares, those bankers nearly ruined us and we'll be better off without them. That is, obviously, nonsense. The UK needs highly skilled and highly paid people in jobs. They pay taxes, and taxes are useful for governments who want to invest in public services. The other responses is that this is just scaremongering. No, it isn't. All of our financial regulation is driven from the EU, and that allows the free provision of services from the UK throughout the EU. There is little to no sense in using London as your European HQ if London isn't part of Europe. A Leave vote will be a massive boost for Paris/Frankfurt. London will be impacted, no question. It's why London as a City is heavily in favour of Remain, and if those outside of London don't think there will be a knock-on effect, they only have to hark back to 2008 to realise that when London sneezes, the rest of the UK catches a cold (think jobs and house prices).

So, to keep it nice and simple:

Short term economic effect: very bad.
Medium term economic effect: bad.
Long term economic effect: I have no idea, but neither do you.

London is not heavily in favour of Remain, one poll recently had Leave 56-44 ahead in London.

The majority must recognise, as indeed many of us also do, that the outdated EU brings us no benefits whatsoever, and is a great hindrance to our nation.

In the long-term, being able to strike free trade deals with the USA, Canada, India and Brazil (among others) will be of a huge benefit to our economy - much more so than clinging to this idea of Europe being the centre of our world. But the Remain campaign don't understand this, as they have no vision.

The same threats, by the way, were made if the UK didn't join the Euro - investment will collapse, jobs will go etc. The same tired scaremongering with no merit whatsoever is merely being repeated.

In summary, Duty's metaphorically got his fingers in his ears and is singing "na, na, na, na, ,na, na, na, na Batman - I can't hear you, I can't hear you".

As you mature, you'll no doubt learn how to approach an argument with some sense of balance. At the moment, your arguments look like dogma.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:31 pm

superflyweight wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
funnyExiledScot wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Except our economy does not benefit from being in the EU.

This country had the 4th largest economy in the world in 1960 - this similar level has always been achieved with or without the EU. Our trade has certainly been harmed by being in the EU - no free trade with the USA, Canada or India, to name just a few.

Open Europe - the only truly independent economic organisation - get it right when they say that Leaving will make a negligible difference to our economy. The ones in the pocket of the EU, with dodgy track records - like the CBI or the IMF - will always pretend otherwise.

There are no benefits to being in the EU which Greece - once home to the greatest civilisation that our species has ever known - have found out to a devastating degree.

Please don't tell me that you blame the EU in the 20th century, as opposed to the Romans at the Battle of Corinth in 146 BC, for the collapse of Ancient Greece?! Also, just on the topic of Greece in the 20h century, the financial mismanagement of the Greek economy and corruption throughout all levels of government was mind blowing - nothing to do with the EU. Where the EU as a concept did struggle was around the bail-out and solutions to the Greece problem, which highlighted the flaws of a single currency incorporating divergent economies such as a soundly managed economy (e.g. Germany) and a basket case (e.g. Greece). It's why the UK shouldn't join the Euro, and have been right to stay out.

As for your points on the economy, what your very high level and simplistic stance (i.e. we were big before the EU and we'll be big after it and all these naysayers about the wonderful trade deals we'll get don't know what they're talking about) fails to address change. It assumes all that works well now, will work well after a Leave vote, and that all the good stuff will happen. So, for example, all the companies that are telling people that redundancies will happen as they look to shift business out of the UK and into the EU (e.g. Citi, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs) will obviously have an impact on our economy. The Leave response to this is always, as ever, simplistic: who cares, those bankers nearly ruined us and we'll be better off without them. That is, obviously, nonsense. The UK needs highly skilled and highly paid people in jobs. They pay taxes, and taxes are useful for governments who want to invest in public services. The other responses is that this is just scaremongering. No, it isn't. All of our financial regulation is driven from the EU, and that allows the free provision of services from the UK throughout the EU. There is little to no sense in using London as your European HQ if London isn't part of Europe. A Leave vote will be a massive boost for Paris/Frankfurt. London will be impacted, no question. It's why London as a City is heavily in favour of Remain, and if those outside of London don't think there will be a knock-on effect, they only have to hark back to 2008 to realise that when London sneezes, the rest of the UK catches a cold (think jobs and house prices).

So, to keep it nice and simple:

Short term economic effect: very bad.
Medium term economic effect: bad.
Long term economic effect: I have no idea, but neither do you.

London is not heavily in favour of Remain, one poll recently had Leave 56-44 ahead in London.

The majority must recognise, as indeed many of us also do, that the outdated EU brings us no benefits whatsoever, and is a great hindrance to our nation.

In the long-term, being able to strike free trade deals with the USA, Canada, India and Brazil (among others) will be of a huge benefit to our economy - much more so than clinging to this idea of Europe being the centre of our world. But the Remain campaign don't understand this, as they have no vision.

The same threats, by the way, were made if the UK didn't join the Euro - investment will collapse, jobs will go etc. The same tired scaremongering with no merit whatsoever is merely being repeated.

In summary, Duty's metaphorically got his fingers in his ears and is singing "na, na, na, na, ,na, na, na, na Batman - I can't hear you, I can't hear you".  

As you mature, you'll no doubt learn how to approach an argument with some sense of balance.  At the moment, your arguments look like dogma.  

I've given it as much balance as I can. Even Britain Stronger in Europe have been unable to articulate a positive that the EU brings us, or a logical argument about why we should Remain.

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Post by Hero on Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:38 pm

You're about as balanced as Johnny Vegas and Kate Moss on a see-saw.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:42 pm

Hero wrote:You're about as balanced as Johnny Vegas and Kate Moss on a see-saw.

Ah, but it wasn't always this way, my darling. It's not like supporting a football team, where blind loyalty must take precedent.

I've known for years - 5 of them now - that the EU does us far more harm than good, and I'm delighted we've got a referendum, and I'm ecstatic that we're going to win. And, in the process, such a result will free our friends on the continent in due course.

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Post by superflyweight on Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:43 pm

No, you've done the same thing that some Yes voters did in Scotland.

You've approached this with the view that you're going to vote Leave regardless of any argument put forward by the Remain campaign and you've continued to rationalise that decision by summarily dismissing any counter arguments with hyperbole and overblown rhetoric.

That's fine and you've every right to do it, but let's not pretend that what you're doing is presenting a balanced viewpoint. Instead, you're applying a broad brush approach to a subject which is incredibly complicated and which none of us can truly say we have a full grasp of.

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:43 pm

Duty281 wrote:
superflyweight wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
funnyExiledScot wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Except our economy does not benefit from being in the EU.

This country had the 4th largest economy in the world in 1960 - this similar level has always been achieved with or without the EU. Our trade has certainly been harmed by being in the EU - no free trade with the USA, Canada or India, to name just a few.

Open Europe - the only truly independent economic organisation - get it right when they say that Leaving will make a negligible difference to our economy. The ones in the pocket of the EU, with dodgy track records - like the CBI or the IMF - will always pretend otherwise.

There are no benefits to being in the EU which Greece - once home to the greatest civilisation that our species has ever known - have found out to a devastating degree.

Please don't tell me that you blame the EU in the 20th century, as opposed to the Romans at the Battle of Corinth in 146 BC, for the collapse of Ancient Greece?! Also, just on the topic of Greece in the 20h century, the financial mismanagement of the Greek economy and corruption throughout all levels of government was mind blowing - nothing to do with the EU. Where the EU as a concept did struggle was around the bail-out and solutions to the Greece problem, which highlighted the flaws of a single currency incorporating divergent economies such as a soundly managed economy (e.g. Germany) and a basket case (e.g. Greece). It's why the UK shouldn't join the Euro, and have been right to stay out.

As for your points on the economy, what your very high level and simplistic stance (i.e. we were big before the EU and we'll be big after it and all these naysayers about the wonderful trade deals we'll get don't know what they're talking about) fails to address change. It assumes all that works well now, will work well after a Leave vote, and that all the good stuff will happen. So, for example, all the companies that are telling people that redundancies will happen as they look to shift business out of the UK and into the EU (e.g. Citi, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs) will obviously have an impact on our economy. The Leave response to this is always, as ever, simplistic: who cares, those bankers nearly ruined us and we'll be better off without them. That is, obviously, nonsense. The UK needs highly skilled and highly paid people in jobs. They pay taxes, and taxes are useful for governments who want to invest in public services. The other responses is that this is just scaremongering. No, it isn't. All of our financial regulation is driven from the EU, and that allows the free provision of services from the UK throughout the EU. There is little to no sense in using London as your European HQ if London isn't part of Europe. A Leave vote will be a massive boost for Paris/Frankfurt. London will be impacted, no question. It's why London as a City is heavily in favour of Remain, and if those outside of London don't think there will be a knock-on effect, they only have to hark back to 2008 to realise that when London sneezes, the rest of the UK catches a cold (think jobs and house prices).

So, to keep it nice and simple:

Short term economic effect: very bad.
Medium term economic effect: bad.
Long term economic effect: I have no idea, but neither do you.

London is not heavily in favour of Remain, one poll recently had Leave 56-44 ahead in London.

The majority must recognise, as indeed many of us also do, that the outdated EU brings us no benefits whatsoever, and is a great hindrance to our nation.

In the long-term, being able to strike free trade deals with the USA, Canada, India and Brazil (among others) will be of a huge benefit to our economy - much more so than clinging to this idea of Europe being the centre of our world. But the Remain campaign don't understand this, as they have no vision.

The same threats, by the way, were made if the UK didn't join the Euro - investment will collapse, jobs will go etc. The same tired scaremongering with no merit whatsoever is merely being repeated.

In summary, Duty's metaphorically got his fingers in his ears and is singing "na, na, na, na, ,na, na, na, na Batman - I can't hear you, I can't hear you".  

As you mature, you'll no doubt learn how to approach an argument with some sense of balance.  At the moment, your arguments look like dogma.  

I've given it as much balance as I can. Even Britain Stronger in Europe have been unable to articulate a positive that the EU brings us, or a logical argument about why we should Remain.


It took me less than 10 seconds to locate this:

http://www.strongerin.co.uk/get_the_facts

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:44 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Hero wrote:You're about as balanced as Johnny Vegas and Kate Moss on a see-saw.

Ah, but it wasn't always this way, my darling. It's not like supporting a football team, where blind loyalty must take precedent.

I've known for years - 5 of them now - that the EU does us far more harm than good, and I'm delighted we've got a referendum, and I'm ecstatic that we're going to win. And, in the process, such a result will free our friends on the continent in due course.

GCSE politics?

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Post by Coxy001 on Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:23 pm

funnyExiledScot wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Hero wrote:You're about as balanced as Johnny Vegas and Kate Moss on a see-saw.

Ah, but it wasn't always this way, my darling. It's not like supporting a football team, where blind loyalty must take precedent.

I've known for years - 5 of them now - that the EU does us far more harm than good, and I'm delighted we've got a referendum, and I'm ecstatic that we're going to win. And, in the process, such a result will free our friends on the continent in due course.

GCSE politics?

Got a D in it in all probability. Nothing above a C would explain why he spent years unemployed.

Just wondering how he'd handle remain pulling through and winning... Followed on by Farage resigning from UKIP and the party drifting away in to the wilderness. Mental breakdown beckons.

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:31 pm

Coxy001 wrote:
funnyExiledScot wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Hero wrote:You're about as balanced as Johnny Vegas and Kate Moss on a see-saw.

Ah, but it wasn't always this way, my darling. It's not like supporting a football team, where blind loyalty must take precedent.

I've known for years - 5 of them now - that the EU does us far more harm than good, and I'm delighted we've got a referendum, and I'm ecstatic that we're going to win. And, in the process, such a result will free our friends on the continent in due course.

GCSE politics?

Got a D in it in all probability. Nothing above a C would explain why he spent years unemployed.

Just wondering how he'd handle remain pulling through and winning... Followed on by Farage resigning from UKIP and the party drifting away in to the wilderness. Mental breakdown beckons.


Well I think being £1000 down would probably be the first concern, unless he takes my advice and invests in a disappointment hedge next week!

I actually did study Politics at A Level. Very interesting and enjoyable but definitely in the camp of "easy" A Levels when compared to what Gove would call "proper subjects".

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:51 pm

mikey_dragon wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:The poorer regions in Wales certainly don't see any of this money? Taxes from England and Wales seem to be going outside the UK, rather than inside it. I think most Brexiters know we also need a change in government (for the love of god labour just elect a good leader) but to be fair to Cameron he has listened to what the populous wanted; he took all of the proposals to EU (where he has to get his permission to spend lunch money ffs) only to have them rejected by Brussels and Merkel. Might this government operate differently outside of the EU?

RDA. Google it.

Top result = http://www.rda.org.uk/ - ummmm.....

Regional Development Aid, try again.

And CAP, whilst you're at it, unless you're going to claim a land synonymous with sheep farming actually has no farming industry....

I seen it a but further down the list. I was trying to be funny - class idea this rda though, I think I'll donate.

Not claiming anything of the sort. Funny your view is at odds with the farmers here who will be voting out.

Then the farmers are idiots.  Possibly the stupidest thing a farmer could ever do given that the EU bails out their failing industry every year.

Unless they're taking a massive punt on, funnily enough, LEAVE's BS £350m claim still being proportionately spent on farming subsidies.

They're born and raised in agriculture, and you think you know what's best for them? Take a day off...

There seems to be more uncertainty than there is inners and outers in the agricultural industry. I also had a quick read of this, which actually left me with more questions than answers: https://www.fwi.co.uk/farm-life/your-letters-on-the-eu-referendum-debate.htm - if they themselves are this uncertain there's no way a non-farmer could be so certain.

So more money is spent bailing out national farming industries than ANYTHING ELSE in the EU (this is a fact) and the Farmers Union (for this reason) backs remain......but I'm expected to believe you/the farmers you are talking about have a fooking scoobies what they're doing/talking about in wanting to LEAVE??

Where did you get this information from? I'm hoping you'll provide me with a source that can provide certainty, much unlike the last guy. Doesn't a lot more EU bail-out money go to countries elsewhere? Surely I don't need to point out which countries...
You didn't read the link then. Shame, it could have provided you with their perspective on the matter, the ones of both sides of the fence. No I'm not a farmer and my reasons for backing leave have nothing to do with agriculture. And yes I do believe that any farmer knows what is best for them, not some random remainer on the net!

Why is everyone else always doig the running around for you ref sources for well known things??

CAP making up the bulk of the EU buget spend as been one of the biggest grumbles ref the EU for 30 years!! It was the reason for Thatcher negotiating our rebate.

And I'm not talking as a random remainer. I'm saying the same of the national farmers union FFS. And stating the bleeding obvious.  But yes, of course, stupidity can never be acknowledged as a reason/excuse.

Butty, like try and keep up with this. It wasn't me who brought agriculture into it, it was you and others. You're non-farmer who made a claim about what farmers want, get and need and said it was fact; you also said "more money is spent bailing out national farming industries than ANYTHING ELSE in the EU (this is a fact)". Shouldn't you back it up with irrefutable sources if this a fact? I've even given you a link from the farmers themselves which insinuates a degree of uncertainty among the pro's and con's of the FARMERS voting whether to remain or leave. I don't know that much about it personally and never claimed to, hence why I'm interested in knowing where your information comes from - so yeah a link to what you're claiming as fact would be good for us both. FYI - When I said that some farmers were voting out I was thinking back to the BBC news programme I had previously watched. I don't remember a date or time so don't ask for a source specifically on this. You're already aware that some want to vote leave anyway.

My first comment on this article from today is the basis for this discussion it seems. I hadn't considered agriculture. If you follow where it went with other posters you'll see I wasn't talking about agriculture, but more my experiences. My city, and Swansea for that matter, simply isn't getting this supposed EU money and both have been on their knees in the last 10 years. The less said about the poorer areas around there the better.

You said Wales gets no benefit from the EU.  I queried whether your ignorance of RDA (Wales being a major benefactor) extended to an even more astonishing ignorance of either CAP or Wales even having a farming industry.

To which you respond "Yeah, but I know some farmers voting leave".  I said they were probably not the brightest to be voting against the advice of their national union and staggered they didn't realise the EU PAID them for their rubbishness.

Then we went round in circles of you not understanding much at all and asking everyone to prove the bits you didn't know/understand.

Again, if you don't have a scoobies about something as major as CAP which has been a stick in Brexiteers craws for decades prior to them becoming a buzzword then YOU go out and do the damn research. This is an internet forum, not a night school for topping up your education.

I said from experience, and I've stated time and time again the reasons why. I've stated where Wales didn't get the EU money when it was needed, hence me wondering it was even true in the first place. Thus I still believe we aren't benefitting that much from the EU. A source I was provided with stated that it believed that Wales got more money than it puts into the EU but not in certain terms as it was difficult to distinguish among different reigons, but one thing that it could factually say was that the UK as a whole gets less. I can see that welsh farmers may benefit from the EU, and I can also see from what I've read from the FARMERS, who know more about it than both of us, the benefits to them of being outside of the EU - you can't seem to get with this. Also Wales isn't just stretch of land with farms you know? Focus is seemingly being frequently shifted to the farms!

https://fullfact.org/europe/wales-getting-best-deal-out-eu/ - the counter-argument to my first comment that I was provided with in case you missed it, however:

No official figure exists for the overall investment that Wales receives from the EU, since funding is calculated on a UK-basis and Wales benefits from a number of multinational programmes which are difficult to quantify by country.

And

Still, the true figure could be outside this range since there's no exhaustive list available of the funding that Wales receives from the EU...

But measuring the relative financial costs and benefits of the EU to Wales is still subject to estimations and assumptions on both sides. It's difficult, for instance, to assign funding precisely at a regional level. Asking whether Wales is a net beneficiary from Europe as a general question which extends beyond financial gains can't be answered well from these estimates alone.


Now stop expanding onto other things. Can you back up your claims that more money is spent bailing out national farming industries than ANYTHING ELSE in the EU? Are you referring to farming industries in Wales, or the UK, or Europe? Is more bail-out money like I suspect being sent to other countries in the EU, ones that are on their knees with high unemployment levels and a painfully low minimum wage? I suspect you're all avoiding this because you have highly suspect data. If EU money does keep propping up the agricultural industry in Wales then good. Is it going to make me change my vote? No. Does/has EU money ever benefitted the impoverished areas in Wales? The two I alluded to, no, and probably not places like Merthyr and countless others either.

FFS this is pathetic:

https://fullfact.org/europe/does-eu-spend-40-its-budget-farm-subsidies/

IF YOU DON'T KNOW SOMETHING THAT EVERYONE ELSE DOES - GOOGLE IS YOUR FRIEND!!

No other single compenent of EU spending accounts for a slug in excess of 40%. If you think different, YOU do the f*cking research next time.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:57 pm

LordDowlais wrote:
The Sandal Bomber wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
The Sandal Bomber wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:What is it with you guys who want to remain ?

Why is it that you just resort to insults and belittling people ?

Just because people want to leave the EU it does not make them village idiots all of a sudden. Every debate I have watched and listened to on this subject always descends into the the remain campaign taking the p1ss out of whoever is debating for the leave campaign. But I guess that's what happens when you start losing a debate.

There has been NOTHING from the remain campaign to convince me we will be better off staying in the EU, but the people who are championing a brexit speak with passion and they believe what they are saying.

I have looked at the pro's and cons. I will be a lot better off out of the EU, my mind is made up, and I am excited by the prospect of being in a position where I have an influence on things that happen in MY country.

Have you taken the advice provided yet and sorted out the bills which are costing your business money whilst your Local Authority fobs you off with false EU claims??

Oh, and to answer your first question, it's not our fault that Brexiteers makes themselves look like 'village idiots'.  Quickest route to not be spoken to like an idiot, is not speaking like an idiot.  Just a wee tip there for you. Though I suspect it will be ignored, like the advice provided, ignorance costing you thousands even before you'v voted LEAVE.

While the 'Remains' are making themselves look like tin hatted conspiracy theorists.

That was just for a bit of balance. Both sides look pretty dim, although the class clowns are in the Remain camp.

Eh?  If anything LEAVE are the conspiracy theorists - their entire campaign is built on conspriacy theory!!

ah, so you're another who is unable, or unwilling, to separate the wheat from the chaff.

So, when do you think WW3 is going to kick off? Just that I would like to stock up my bunker with enough tinned beans before people start pressing buttons.

Where exactly did he say that ww3 is going to kick off you complete cretin? Is it too difficult for you to distinguish between the argument in hand and the position of the leaders?

The problem with the debate is that it is being lead by cretins such as yourself. It's all bitching, fearmongering, hyperbole and insulting. Not much evidence of reasoning.

In answer to your question; Cameron never actually stated "WW3". He did say this:

“Can we be so sure peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking?,” he said. “I would never be so rash to make that assumption.”

“pivotal moments in European history: Blenheim, Trafalgar, Waterloo, our country’s heroism in the Great War and, most of all, our lone stand in 1940”.

“What happens in our neighbourhood matters to Britain. That was true in 1914, 1940, 1989…. and it is true in 2016.”

The implication is clear. In a worse case scenario, the UK leaving Europe could lead to a 1914 or a 1940. Emotional blackmail.

Now, just to let you know, I'm for Remain, even if borderline. What I find disheartening is the lack of leadership in the Remain campaign, and the extremely poor quality of debate. Pretty much a mirror image of what's being served up on this thread.

Again you complete moron. No one here was arguing that, hence the distinction between this debate and the debate on the idiot box. No one here was arguing that there was a chance of WW3. essentially you've come on halfway through a debate where Lorddowails (biggest idiot on this thread from either side or for that matter any debate ever debated) blamed the EU for Business rates - which are set by his local councils. So either he's a liar who doesn't run a business or a moron who is going to get it up the arse once reality bites. This is why he was getting insulted because he f*cking well deserved it for being a stupid c*nt not because he is a leave voter.





Who the bloody hell do you think you are ?

I have not just gone into this and said what I think. You are a muppet of the highest order. Why don't you go and find out who makes the rules. The local councils are working under the guidance of th EU. I am not going into it on here but I have taken my plight to the highest point I can take it, there is so much red tape with this issue that comes from Brussels I cannot be bothered. To go on about it. Take your head out of your arris. You are everything that is wrong with this country you arrogant naughty naughty boy.

Do you know what any of the following acronyms mean:

UBR
AVD
RV
DV
RICS
VT
RH

This is purely in the context of your business rates debacle.  If not then YOU do not have a fooking scoobies what you are doing or what you are talking about.

You are getting totally mugged off and seem happy to take it so you can blame it on someone else totally irrelevant to the matter.

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:00 pm

Duty281 wrote:Except our economy does not benefit from being in the EU.

This country had the 4th largest economy in the world in 1960 - this similar level has always been achieved with or without the EU. Our trade has certainly been harmed by being in the EU - no free trade with the USA, Canada or India, to name just a few.

Open Europe - the only truly independent economic organisation - get it right when they say that Leaving will make a negligible difference to our economy. The ones in the pocket of the EU, with dodgy track records - like the CBI or the IMF - will always pretend otherwise.

There are no benefits to being in the EU which Greece - once home to the greatest civilisation that our species has ever known - have found out to a devastating degree.

You got me interested in the Open Europe position, so I read it.

In order to achieve their stance that Brexit would result in a "negligible difference to our economy" (note, not actually benefit the UK from an economic perspective), they have built into their model the scrapping of regulations around employment law, health & safety and climate change (or "unnecessary red tape" as Farage would call it). Open Europe's "broadly politically achievable" changes would, in their view, save £12.8 billion per annum, or 0.7% of GDP. Sounds good doesn't it. Things they require to be scrapped include: redundancy pay, holiday roll-over, compensatory rest, on-call time rules, works councils and equal treatment rights for fixed term workers. They are also proposing to scrap limits on bankers bonuses, short selling regulations and insurance capital rules (i.e. regulations imposed by the EU to prevent another financial crisis). They suggest taking an axe to climate change regulations, in particular targets for use of renewable energy.

I find it genuinely surprising that a self-proclaimed lefty Guardian reader can genuinely endorse the deregulation proposed by Open Europe simply to achieve the position of Brexit resulting in a "negligible difference to our economy". Whilst they are clearly pro-business measures, they are proposing to deregulate the financial services sector at precisely the time when the world is demanding robust regulation (and for very good reasons), they are attacking workers rights (they even propose scrapping some anti-discrimination measures although it isn't clear which) and their environmental proposals amount to climate change denial.

So, if you are a right wing climate change denier, who thinks the financial crisis wasn't problematic, that banks should be able to profiteer from collapsing share prices at the expense of Joe Public, and that bankers pay should be unrestrained whilst workers' rights eroded, then Open Europe is certainly the organisation for you!

Good article in the FT today, sets out the positions of leading economists, including the very small number who think the economic impact will be positive/negligible:

https://next.ft.com/content/b23864e8-2ee3-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc


Last edited by funnyExiledScot on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by SecretFly on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:05 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:

FFS this is pathetic:

https://fullfact.org/europe/does-eu-spend-40-its-budget-farm-subsidies/

IF YOU DON'T KNOW SOMETHING THAT EVERYONE ELSE DOES - GOOGLE IS YOUR FRIEND!!

No other single compenent of EU spending accounts for a slug in excess of 40%.  If you think different, YOU do the f*cking research next time.

Bankers, politicians, city investors gotta be fed, Top.  They tried eating bank notes a while back but they got indigestion.

There you go - the circus merrygoround of money that the EU engages in.  "We'll give you this, so that we can take this from you, so that we can hand you back that much, so that you can hand that back to us in taxes.

If Farmers got production value prices from EU friendly companies (LIDL, ALDI etc Wink - the Lobby groups who love closer and closer Union to drive down the prices they have to pay producers, to be short) then the need for subsidies wouldn't exist.  It's a market where market forces are suppressed so that certain wink companies can thrive whilst others go to the wall.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:06 pm

CAP was set up before LIDL & ALDI etc existed.

Next?

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Post by ShahenshahG on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:15 pm

Fes. Could I have that link please? In particular those workers rights that are expected to be scrapped in the event of Brexit.

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Post by Guest on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:16 pm

Will we still have an ALDI or LIDL if we vote 'Leave'? My vote may very well depend on the answer (as well as others such as, "Does voting Leave guarantee that Jeremy Vine will be assassinated along with Joey Essex and Chris Evans?" and "Do I still need Lira to go to Spain/Italy/that country where they speak funny?")

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Post by Hero on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:17 pm

Here's the article in full:

Economic claims and counterclaims have swirled around Britain’s EU referendum campaign.
But in the run-up to next week’s historic vote on membership of the bloc, the consensus among economists is clear: leaving Europe would hurt growth. Even many committed supporters of Brexit acknowledge there would be a short-term economic hit.
But deeper into the future many big questions remain. Will the UK economy struggle and stagnate outside the single market? Or will it quickly recover from the initial impact and become more dynamic?
What practically all of the assessments conclude is that by 2030 the nation would be poorer than it otherwise would be. Rather than give a single figure for how much less growth would be outside rather inside the EU, most give a range of projections.
Here is the FT’s analysis of the estimates by leading authorities and the assumptions and arguments behind them:

A gain for the UK: Patrick Minford
The prediction: Prof Minford’s bullish scenario is at odds with the consensus. It foresees gross domestic product increasing by a cumulative 4 per cent by 2020 due to Brexit.
The reasoning Trade would be boosted by unilaterally scraping all import tariffs and relying on World Trade Organisation rules. Dumping regulations in areas such as working hours, gender equality and climate change would boost business.
Criticism The highly theoretical model assumes Britain only imports from EU countries because the bloc’s common customs tariff artificially protects goods from world competition. Prof Minford himself has said that the UK’s manufacturing industry would be mostly eliminated when exposed to the full force of global price competition.
It is questionable whether such a dramatic development — together with the mass removal of working rights — would be politically deliverable. Nor is it clear whether the UK can trade under WTO rules without a fresh agreement with the body’s 161 other members.


Limited impact only: Open Europe
The prediction: Exit would not affect GDP more than 1 per cent either way. A protectionist stance on issues such as immigration would hit the economy. But under more liberal policies the country would prosper marginally more out of the EU than in.
The reasoning The think-tank suggests that foreign direct investment crowds out domestic investment rather than adding to it. That means productivity would not be particularly badly hit by a fall in FDI.
Criticism The paper assumes questionably large potential savings from a bonfire of regulation — including scrapping some workplace rights.

Costly in most scenarios: Oxford Economics
The prediction Brexit would harm Britain’s economy in eight out of nine scenarios, with the impact ranging from 0.1% to 3.9% of GDP by 2030. This is mainly due to the cost of trade rising.
The reasoning The only favourable scenario is one in which migration continues as normal, Britain gets rid of regulations on workers and stays in an EU customs union.
Criticism The optimistic scenario, in which Britain negotiates a settlement that preserves many of its rights in the EU, is not necessarily credible.

Big hit to wages: National Institute of Economic and Social Research
The prediction GDP, real wages and household consumption would all fall markedly in a post-Brexit world. While some of the short-term shock of leaving dissipates, the transition continues to weigh in the longer term, resulting in a loss to GDP of 1.9-7.8 per cent by 2030.
The reasoning Any future trading arrangement with Europe would be less beneficial for the UK than is the current single market arrangement. There would be lower demand for UK exports, a depreciation of the pound and a rise in the cost of imports. This hits both wages and consumption.
Criticism It does not attempt to model the impact of changing migration policies.


Growth dented, but some mitigation possible: CBI/PwC
The prediction Brexit would drag down Britain’s economy over the next five years, but if the UK struck free-trade deals with the EU and the US, some damage could be repaired.
The hit would range from a loss of 1.2-3.5 per cent of GDP by 2030.
The reasoning Brexit would stoke uncertainty, increasing the cost of corporate debt and subsequently hitting investment and consumption.
There would be some savings from looser regulation and the UK population would fall due to greater controls on unskilled EU immigration. The service sector would face some increase in non-tariff barriers.
Criticism Crude quantification of the impact of uncertainty. Most of the assumptions suggest Brexit will little change Britain’s relations with other countries.


Costly in all scenarios: The Treasury
The prediction The UK is worse off outside the EU in any of the three main outcomes, bringing GDP between 3.4 per cent and 9.5 per cent lower by 2030.
The reasoning Breaking with the EU would cause trade and FDI to fall. Productivity would grow more slowly, as would the economy as a whole.
Criticism The precise figures are open to doubt and the paper does not take into account the impact of a reduction in migration.


Equivalent to a permanent tax on income: OECD
The prediction: There would be long-term damage of between 2.7 and 7.7 per cent of GDP by 2030 and the organisation’s head has likened the impact over the next four years to “missing out on one month’s income”.
The reasoning A drop in confidence would hit the economy in the short term. Longer term, reduced trade means lower foreign direct investment, hitting the UK’s productivity growth.
Benefits from less regulation will be limited; the UK is already sixth in the World Bank’s list of the easiest places to do business.
Criticism The comprehensive model may magnify the impact of factors such as uncertainty.


Very costly in all scenarios: Centre for Economic Performance
The prediction: A hit to trade in all likely scenarios will bring GDP 6.3-9.5 per cent lower by 2030 than if the UK stayed in.
The reasoning Even if the UK strikes a free-trade agreement with the EU, non-tariff barriers — such as rules of origin regulations — would hamper growth. The worst estimates assume the economy will become less efficient over the long term due to less competition from EU nations.
Criticism Does not assume any impact due to change in migration or a reduction in regulations.

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Post by mikey_dragon on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:19 pm

I'm still not sure why the scaremongers are convinced that Leave are going to turn around to all the NHS staff from the EU and say "ta-ra!" - that has to be one of the stupidest lies you've come out with. The majority of foreign NHS workers come from outside the EU, traditionally it's been countries around the middle east/commonwealth and it still is today. Regardless of the UK being in or out of the EU, there will be a continuous flow of these workers coming here for better pay and specialist training that they can't get in their home countries.

The majority of the NHS workers are British. There's also a clear increase of British staff working in the NHS compared to previous years. Most of our overseas NHS staff are from India, next is the Philippines - both non-EU countries - they are also going under rigorous tests before being hired already (language tests, role play, etc.). All of this evidence seems to contradict claims that we're very reliant on NHS staff who are EU nationals who don't seem to have to undertake the same tests.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jan/28/-sp-nhs-hires-3000-foreign-doctors-staff-shortage

https://fullfact.org/health/immigration-and-nhs-how-many-staff-are-eu-and-commonwealth/

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jan/26/nhs-foreign-nationals-immigration-health-service

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Post by SecretFly on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:20 pm

TopHat24/7 wrote:CAP was set up before LIDL & ALDI etc existed.

Next?

So was the UK...before both.

Explain why subsidies are needed....you'll find the reason when you tot up your grocery list next time.

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Post by Hero on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:26 pm

mikey_dragon wrote:I'm still not sure why the scaremongers are convinced that Leave are going to turn around to all the NHS staff from the EU and say "ta-ra!" - that has to be one of the stupidest lies you've come out with. The majority of foreign NHS workers come from outside the EU, traditionally it's been countries around the middle east/commonwealth and it still is today. Regardless of the UK being in or out of the EU, there will be a continuous flow of these workers coming here for better pay and specialist training that they can't get in their home countries.

The majority of the NHS workers are British. There's also a clear increase of British staff working in the NHS compared to previous years. Most of our overseas NHS staff are from India, next is the Philippines - both non-EU countries - they are also going under rigorous tests before being hired already (language tests, role play, etc.). All of this evidence seems to contradict claims that we're very reliant on NHS staff who are EU nationals who don't seem to have to undertake the same tests.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jan/28/-sp-nhs-hires-3000-foreign-doctors-staff-shortage

https://fullfact.org/health/immigration-and-nhs-how-many-staff-are-eu-and-commonwealth/

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jan/26/nhs-foreign-nationals-immigration-health-service

I work for a company that provide these tests for overseas doctors, they're about as rigorous a test as being able to pat your head and rub your tummy.

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:29 pm

The Sandal Bomber wrote:Fes. Could I have that link please? In particular those workers rights that are expected to be scrapped in the event of Brexit.


Sure. The article that Hero has posted is the FT article, but I was referring to the Open Europe paper endorsed by Duty (you can reach the full report by PDF at the link below):

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/britain-and-the-eu/what-if-there-were-a-brexit/

It's actually a pretty honest and frank report, and I'm not questioning the integrity of the numbers (am in no position to do so). It's basically saying that if you significantly de-regulate you can forecast just about enough gains to offset the losses caused by Brexit. Of course you have to be comfortable with the proposed deregulation in order to endorse this position.

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Post by Ent on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:30 pm

Immigration is one of the issues for he nhs.

Other major ones are removal of the European time directive - this is what prompted the additional university training places over a decade ago. If staff can be forced to go back to unsafe working hours there will be no need to maintain this recruitment level.

Any effect on the economy will effect the nhs as there will be less tax money to spend.

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Post by TopHat24/7 on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:32 pm

SecretFly wrote:
TopHat24/7 wrote:CAP was set up before LIDL & ALDI etc existed.

Next?

So was the UK...before both.

Explain why subsidies are needed....you'll find the reason when you tot up your grocery list next time.

Doubt it. I shop at Waitrose....

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Post by Hero on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:33 pm

And combined with the current issues between the BMA and Jeremy Hunt then the removal of the ETD will see British trained doctors leaving the UK in unprecedented numbers.

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Post by ShahenshahG on Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:34 pm

funnyExiledScot wrote:
The Sandal Bomber wrote:Fes. Could I have that link please? In particular those workers rights that are expected to be scrapped in the event of Brexit.


Sure. The article that Hero has posted is the FT article, but I was referring to the Open Europe paper endorsed by Duty (you can reach the full report by PDF at the link below):

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/britain-and-the-eu/what-if-there-were-a-brexit/

It's actually a pretty honest and frank report, and I'm not questioning the integrity of the numbers (am in no position to do so). It's basically saying that if you significantly de-regulate you can forecast just about enough gains to offset the losses caused by Brexit. Of course you have to be comfortable with the proposed deregulation in order to endorse this position.

Thank you I'll read that tonight at work. Has anyone from the leave camp actually endorsed this yet?

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