The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll)

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Post by Guest on Wed 22 Jun 2016, 3:37 pm

First topic message reminder :

TopHat24/7 wrote:
Munchkin wrote:I may have missed it on this thread but what are peoples thoughts on TTIP? Personally I think TTIP would be a a disaster for the EU, but can we fight it off?

Broadly negative but largely irrelevant as the UK would sign up to it in a flash with or without the EU.

Of course it's negative. It's a warning against TTIP and from a Nobel Prize winning economist. Strange that some here complain about the a lack of attention to 'financial experts' yet seem to brush aside the warnings of one on the worlds leading economists.

You say the UK will accept it in a flash, even if Brexit win. Why? I know Cameron will be quick to sell the UK to the highest bidder, but there are plenty of voices against TTIP, including the leader of the opposition. It would also be very doubtful that Cameron will be in power if Brexit do win.

I haven't got around to reading all the comments in reply to the TTIP article, very busy, but will once I get a break.


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Post by JuliusHMarx on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 9:45 pm

aucklandlaurie wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:Yes, I know what it is like to lose your job. But I don't recall anyone clapping and cheering at the same point those workers were in tears. Rejoicing, while ignoring others' distress, does not sit well with me.

sadly Julius there are bad winners...just like there are bad losers.

True. In fairness though, in this case, I doubt most people in GB were aware of the specific reaction of some British workers abroad.

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Post by temporary21 on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 9:49 pm

The EU however has since calmed their fears and assured them they would take steps to keep them employed. Over here the same calmness has been given to the EU nationals working here.

Do remember that this is an economic union in theory we have decided we want out of. Both sides clearly want this done, but they want to move past it and just get on with business as trading neighbours. Part of that is securing the obs each one currently has

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Post by Sin é on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 9:49 pm

Some commentary from Irish people living and working in the UK. For the record it seems that the common work and travel between UK & Ireland will probably continue because that has been in place prior to Ireland and UK's entry into the EU. Ireland won be a back door entry into the single market though.

‘I’m in shock. I feel lost’: Irish in Britain respond to Brexit
Readers express dismay and anxiety over vote to leave the EU


Jude Flores (41), teacher, Bedfordshire

I’m a secondary school language teacher and my faculty is comprised of English, Welsh, German, Spanish and Irish teachers. We got an email from our head of faculty at 6am saying he had never felt more ashamed to be British.

I don’t plan on staying here now long term. The campaign has revealed a rotten, intolerant xenophobic element in British society. When people have told me they were voting for Leave I’ve felt rejected. They’ve said “We’re full!” and “I don’t mean you (the Irish)” but I see myself as being Irish AND European. I don’t want to be around them either. Now to make a plan to move back to Ireland with my daughters. My youngest is 11 and wants to leave now. It’s the young people who were clearly in favour of remaining. They’ll be the ones stuck with the consequences of the oldies’ vote.

Some more here ....

http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/generation-emigration/i-m-in-shock-i-feel-lost-irish-in-britain-respond-to-brexit-1.2698214
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Post by aucklandlaurie on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 9:53 pm

Julius. There are British Workers all over the globe, even here in New Zealand, some dont even want to return to Britain because of the direction Britain has taken over the last decade or so through its EU obligations. So why should the Brits in Europe get special consideration over the Brits in other parts of the World including Commonwealth Countries?

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Post by Sin é on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 9:56 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
aucklandlaurie wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:Yes, I know what it is like to lose your job. But I don't recall anyone clapping and cheering at the same point those workers were in tears. Rejoicing, while ignoring others' distress, does not sit well with me.

sadly Julius there are bad winners...just like there are bad losers.

True. In fairness though, in this case, I doubt most people in GB were aware of the specific reaction of some British workers abroad.  

Or who are on the dole ....


Over 11,000 British nationals are currently claiming the dole in Ireland
By Conor Heneghan
That’s a pretty big number to be fair.

Social welfare is always a hot topic and a cause for debate in Ireland and figures have been released about some practices across the water which may open a few eyes in these parts.

According to research carried out in The Guardian, 11,222 British nationals are currently claiming the dole in Ireland, almost five times the amount of Irish people (2,620) currently claiming social welfare in the UK.

What’s more, the number of British nationals currently claiming the dole in Ireland is almost double that of any other country in the EU, with the 6,022 Britons currently claiming benefits in Germany coming the closest to matching it.

According to recent figures, just under 364,000 people were entitled to claim social welfare in Ireland.

The number of British nationals included in that might seem like a small percentage, but it’s still a pretty large number, especially compared to the number of Irish nationals claiming the dole across the pond and when the maximum weekly rates - €188 in Ireland, £72.40 (approximately €94) in the UK - are taken into consideration.

You can read the findings of the study, which makes for very interesting reading, in full here.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/19/-sp-thousands-britons-claim-benefits-eu


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Post by JuliusHMarx on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 9:57 pm

aucklandlaurie wrote: Julius. There are British Workers  all over the globe, even here in New Zealand, some dont even want to return to Britain because of  the direction Britain has taken over the last decade or so through its EU obligations. So why should the Brits in Europe get special consideration over the Brits in other parts of the World including Commonwealth Countries?

I'm not sure I understand. Did I imply that they should? I didn't mean to.

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Post by aucklandlaurie on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 10:01 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
aucklandlaurie wrote: Julius. There are British Workers  all over the globe, even here in New Zealand, some dont even want to return to Britain because of  the direction Britain has taken over the last decade or so through its EU obligations. So why should the Brits in Europe get special consideration over the Brits in other parts of the World including Commonwealth Countries?

I'm not sure I understand. Did I imply that they should? I didn't mean to.


Your remark was open to ambiguity. Were you suggesting that the British Workers abroad swung the referendum?

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Post by Duty281 on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 10:04 pm

Disappointed by the thoughts of some of my generation, mainly on social media, who seem to think their opinions are more divine and worthy than 'older people' because they have longer to live.

Yes, really!

Also confused by the feelings of some others (of any generation) who say this choice has made them ashamed to be British.

Well sorry for wanting to be Global Britannia!

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Post by Sin é on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 10:07 pm

aucklandlaurie - can I ask you, why are you so anti-EU?
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Post by JuliusHMarx on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 10:08 pm

aucklandlaurie wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
aucklandlaurie wrote: Julius. There are British Workers  all over the globe, even here in New Zealand, some dont even want to return to Britain because of  the direction Britain has taken over the last decade or so through its EU obligations. So why should the Brits in Europe get special consideration over the Brits in other parts of the World including Commonwealth Countries?

I'm not sure I understand. Did I imply that they should? I didn't mean to.


Your remark was open to ambiguity. Were you suggesting that the British Workers abroad swung the referendum?

No, not at all.

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Post by Shifty on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 10:11 pm

funnyExiledScot wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
funnyExiledScot wrote:I miss Tony Blair and New Labour. The current situation is making them look like one of the finest governments of all time.

That is a very unfortunate truth, fes.

The problem now is that there are no clear leaders to lead either party at a time when clear leadership is vital. I can only hope that some bright new thing emerges to lead the UK in very uncertain times.


Conservatives - Ruth Davidson
Labour - David Miliband. End of.
Lib Dems - David Laws

Conservatives - Ruth Davidson <------
LOLOLOLLO you CANNOT be serious?   No one would vote for that loud mouth cow.  Bearing in mind the Conservatives need to pick up English votes do you honestly think that Nicola Sturgeon's dumpy dark haired sister would get the English voters behind her? Doh

The Conservatives really need to go for David Davis to be honest.  Rees-Mogg as Chancellor, Boris as Foreign Secretary, Patel as Home Secretary.  Gove as Deputy Leader.  Liam Fox as defense Secretary.  IDS back to work and pensions Secretary.  I'd like them to use Dan Hannan as well, he seems pretty useful.

I'm £150 up either way after voting on Brexit, sadly the Scots cut into my winnings badly, I knew I should of bet on them to back Brexit, but 40-1 was worth a £60 bet. All those 000's looked too tempting.
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Post by Duty281 on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 10:17 pm

Shifty wrote:
funnyExiledScot wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
funnyExiledScot wrote:I miss Tony Blair and New Labour. The current situation is making them look like one of the finest governments of all time.

That is a very unfortunate truth, fes.

The problem now is that there are no clear leaders to lead either party at a time when clear leadership is vital. I can only hope that some bright new thing emerges to lead the UK in very uncertain times.


Conservatives - Ruth Davidson
Labour - David Miliband. End of.
Lib Dems - David Laws

Conservatives - Ruth Davidson <------
LOLOLOLLO you CANNOT be serious?   No one would vote for that loud mouth cow.  Bearing in mind the Conservatives need to pick up English votes do you honestly think that Nicola Sturgeon's dumpy dark haired sister would get the English voters behind her? Doh

The Conservatives really need to go for David Davis to be honest.  Rees-Mogg as Chancellor, Boris as Foreign Secretary, Patel as Home Secretary.  Gove as Deputy Leader.  Liam Fox as defense Secretary.  IDS back to work and pensions Secretary.  I'd like them to use Dan Hannan as well, he seems pretty useful.

I'm £150 up either way after voting on Brexit, sadly the Scots cut into my winnings badly, I knew I should of bet on them to back Brexit, but 40-1 was worth a £60 bet.  All those 000's looked too tempting.

I like David Davis, but feel that his only chance was 11 years ago when he lost out to Cameron. Daniel Hannan is another one who I admire, but he seems to have a lack of ambition, judging from his 17 years in the European Parliament and not an awful lot else.

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Post by aucklandlaurie on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 10:19 pm

Sin é wrote:aucklandlaurie - can I ask you, why are you so anti-EU?

Several Reasons

The desertion in 1977 by the UK on its old Commonwealth allies that went around the World to fight and die for Britain.

The way New Zealanders are treated once they have been in the UK travelling/working for 23 months, and are "asked to leave".

The trade restrictions applied to New Zealand products being marketed in the EU

The Subsidies granted to EU producers competing with New Zealand producers.

And that's not even taking into consideration many reasons where Britain is suffering and being 'Ripped off' by being in the EU.


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Post by Guest on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 10:36 pm

funnyExiledScot wrote:Conservatives - Ruth Davidson
Labour - David Miliband. End of.
Lib Dems - David Laws

Boris will be one candidate, but I'd side with him going up against Andrea Leadsom. She's an incredibly popular figure inside the Conservative Party, has support, momentum & is coming off playing a dominant role, more so than Boris, during this referendum. I think she has more to her than Theresa May, in all honesty.

As for Labour, David Miliband is apparently being offered a top job in US government,  if Hillary is successful. He's been linked with a foreign diplomat role, so I don't see him being a key player, seeing as he was rejected for his brother, only a few years ago. I'd think it's between Hilary Benn or Chuka Umunna, but seeing as he pulled out of a leadership race previously, probably means he isn't up to the job.

Lib Dems....who?

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 10:40 pm

Duty281 wrote:Disappointed by the thoughts of some of my generation, mainly on social media, who seem to think their opinions are more divine and worthy than 'older people' because they have longer to live.

Yes, really!

Also confused by the feelings of some others (of any generation) who say this choice has made them ashamed to be British.

Well sorry for wanting to be Global Britannia!

Maybe, given that Leave campaigners are already admitting that they won't be able to deliver some of their promises, and that some of the predictions of the Remain campaign, which were dismissed as scare-mongering by the Leave campaign, are already happening, some people are ashamed that some other people got duped into believing in some sort of retrograde, nationalistic, utopian fantasy.

Or maybe not.


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Post by lostinwales on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 10:48 pm

Of course things are not all fantastic in Europe but I do feel that a lot of the brexiteers have been sold a pup. I don't know how many actually understand our place in Europe (2nd biggest economy etc) and how it works. Campaigning on both sides was a joke, and you can fully understand people taking the opportunity to give the government a good kicking - but at what cost.

There is also the irony of areas which received most European funding being the areas which voted in greatest numbers to go.

I know this video has been getting a lot of hits and I can't honestly remember seeing if it has been linked here or not, but this is a talk by a guy whose life's work has been studying how Europe works, Prof Michael Dougan from Liverpool University
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USTypBKEd8Y

I really hope I am wrong, and so often with these things the changes are less than you'd expect, but today is genuinely a day which has made me worry about the future of my kids.

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Post by Hero on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 11:08 pm

Meanwhile over the pond this is what they're saying...

Just in case you had any doubts, the U.K. has now completed its historical round trip, making the transition from a small, impoverished island dependent on farming and fishing, to globe-spanning imperial power, back to a small impoverished island dependent on farming and fishing.

Sure, the U.K. has nuclear weapons, just as fat middle-aged former footballers still have their old team jerseys. Each is a remnant of former glory days, long since gone

London’s ambition to be the world's most important city is now over. Expect it to become more like Colonial Williamsburg: A tourist trap that attempts to depict what life was like in the not-too-distant past

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Post by Sin é on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 11:11 pm

aucklandlaurie wrote:
Sin é wrote:aucklandlaurie - can I ask you, why are you so anti-EU?

Several Reasons

The desertion in 1977 by the UK on its old Commonwealth allies that went around the World to fight and die for Britain.
So thats the UK's fault, not the EUs.


The way New Zealanders are treated once they have been in the UK travelling/working for 23 months, and are "asked to leave".

The trade restrictions applied to New Zealand products being marketed in the EU
There is a bilateral trade agreement between EU & New Zealand. EU imports from NZ in 2014: €8.1 bn. Imports from EU to NZ: €3.6bn.


The Subsidies granted to EU producers competing with New Zealand producers.
Britain (& EU) want a ready supply of cheap food (one of the reasons the EC was set up in the first place - food shortages from the war years and after it). I think you will find that once the UK leave the EU, the UK will be flooded with cheap food from north and south america - so your on the road to nowhere going that route.

I find it astonishing that Wales voted to leave the EU bearing in mind that farming in Wales is propped up to the tune of £200m a year in single farm payments).


And that's not even taking into consideration many reasons where Britain is suffering and being 'Ripped off' by being in the EU.
That just isn't true. Britain pretty much gets back everything they pay into the EU. In fact, the biggest contributor to the EU budget per head of population is The Netherlands (4 times more than what the UK contribute). On a per-head basis, UK are the 8th biggest contributors to the EU.

This chart shows who gives and gets back what.

The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll) - Page 13 Chart10
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Post by Duty281 on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 11:14 pm

Hero wrote:Meanwhile over the pond this is what they're saying...

Just in case you had any doubts, the U.K. has now completed its historical round trip, making the transition from a small, impoverished island dependent on farming and fishing, to globe-spanning imperial power, back to a small impoverished island dependent on farming and fishing.  

Sure, the U.K. has nuclear weapons, just as fat middle-aged former footballers still have their old team jerseys. Each is a remnant of former glory days, long since gone

London’s ambition to be the world's most important city is now over. Expect it to become more like Colonial Williamsburg: A tourist trap that attempts to depict what life was like in the not-too-distant past

What American officials are actually saying:

Later, a senior state department official told the Guardian: “This is obviously not the outcome that either of our governments wanted but it’s democracy and so we’re moving on. We have to. It’s just too important not to. The relationship’s too important, the issues that we’re working with the UK on are too vital. You name it: Afghanistan, Ukraine, Syria, the Asia-Pacific region. The Brits are such a key partner on so many issues that it’s just too important to allow this to derail a lot of that cooperation.”

“Nothing’s going to change about the deep and abiding relationship we have with the UK, which is a special relationship,” State Department spokesperson John Kirby told reporters. “We’re going to continue to work hard with the UK and the EU as they work through what this decision means across an array of specific issues. We absolutely, fully respect the will of the British people here.”

“As an American, we value the principle of sovereignty, self-determination, government by consent and limited government,” said House speaker Paul Ryan.

Without mention of fresh Scottish and Irish calls for independence in the wake of the result, he added: “England is our indispensable ally. Our friends in the United Kingdom are our indispensable ally, and this is a very special relationship, and that relationship is going to continue no matter what. Period, end of story.”

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Post by SecretFly on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 11:24 pm

Sin é wrote:
aucklandlaurie wrote:


And that's not even taking into consideration many reasons where Britain is suffering and being 'Ripped off' by being in the EU.
That just isn't true. Britain pretty much gets back everything they pay into the EU. In fact, the biggest contributor to the EU budget per head of population is The Netherlands (4 times more than what the UK contribute). On a per-head basis, UK are the 8th biggest contributors to the EU.

This chart shows who gives and gets back what.

The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll) - Page 13 Chart10

The chart seems to disagree with the comment. Or am I missing something?

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Post by lostinwales on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 11:25 pm

Nico the gman wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:"Meanwhile, Reuters news agency reports that many Britons working in European Union institutions feared for their jobs, with some in tears at work this morning"

That's one reason why I don't like all the cheering. There are people distraught over this - British people - and others are cheering and clapping and feeling that everything is great. It isn't.
In Teesside last year Redcar SSI workers were in tears after losing their jobs and 170 years of steel making, one of the main reasons cited by Anna Soubury was we must abide by EU laws so the government couldn't put money into it, needless to say Teesside voted heavily for Brexit, fearing for your job and losing it are 2 different things.

There was me thinking of the irony of Old Dave greasing up and bending over for the Chinese on that visit at the same time that they were flooding the market with cheap steel while putting up tariffs to prevent the import of high quality steel of the type produced in the UK. But no. It was all the fault of those evil eurocrats.

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Post by Alex_Germany on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 11:29 pm

Nico the gman wrote:It annoys me when after a democratic referendum when certain people start saying they're ashamed to be British because of this result, shame on them for saying that.

I certainly won't say I'm ashamed. But I am a bit embarrassed. How do I explain that 52% of country have voted for a pay cut and an extension of austerity?

It's like being asked in the 1990s why your country has so many football hooligans.

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Post by Sin é on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 11:39 pm

SecretFly wrote:
Sin é wrote:
aucklandlaurie wrote:


And that's not even taking into consideration many reasons where Britain is suffering and being 'Ripped off' by being in the EU.
That just isn't true. Britain pretty much gets back everything they pay into the EU. In fact, the biggest contributor to the EU budget per head of population is The Netherlands (4 times more than what the UK contribute). On a per-head basis, UK are the 8th biggest contributors to the EU.

This chart shows who gives and gets back what.

The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll) - Page 13 Chart10

The chart seems to disagree with the comment. Or am I missing something?

Thats an old chart. From what I've read recently, UK would save about 6bn by leaving the EU. Then UK will have to pay to access the Single Market.

By the way, the UK gets less back from the EU because most of the money goes into the common agricultural policy so that England in particular has a cheap supply of food. The UK is dependent on imports to feed its large population.

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Post by Alex_Germany on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 11:44 pm

I think Europe has a choice of two actions, and hopefully Merkel and Hollande can talk this over with Cameron.

1. Offer a deal similar to Norway
-UK pays the same as its current net payment
-It has access to the single market
-It accepts free movement of people both ways
-It has to follow all the various product directives

2. Offer a deal based on world trade principles, similar to what Morocco of Algeria or Turkey get.

Option 1 hits UK GDP by 1.5% according to the IMF. Option 2 by upwards of 5.5% - and probably more. So really, whoever follows Cameron would have no choice but to accept the deal.

Would Europe offer Option 1? Financially it makes sense - Option 2 will hurt Europe as well. However, if they offer option 1, they may get other countries also wanting that. Now I actually think that could be a good thing - a larger EFTA and a smaller EU, but with the essentials shared: A single market and free movement.

The EU bureaucrat will play hard ball. As might Spain over Gibraltar. Germany and France might be more accommodating, if they can be persuaded that some countries moving to EFTA+ is not a disaster.

As for Scotland - can't blame them if they leave. They should do it ASAP and then structure it that England and Wales are leaving the UK and the EU, and Scotland remains with the UK's inherited rights. Perhaps Gibraltar woulf then become part of Scotland,.

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Post by Shifty on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 11:47 pm

lostinwales wrote:Of course things are not all fantastic in Europe but I do feel that a lot of the brexiteers have been sold a pup. I don't know how many actually understand our place in Europe (2nd biggest economy etc) and how it works. Campaigning on both sides was a joke, and you can fully understand people taking the opportunity to give the government a good kicking - but at what cost.

There is also the irony of areas which received most European funding being the areas which voted in greatest numbers to go.

I know this video has been getting a lot of hits and I can't honestly remember seeing if it has been linked here or not, but this is a talk by a guy whose life's work has been studying how Europe works, Prof Michael Dougan from Liverpool University
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USTypBKEd8Y

I really hope I am wrong, and so often with these things the changes are less than you'd expect, but today is genuinely a day which has made me worry about the future of my kids.

The Green part is important. Cameron botched the renegotiation. For me he needed to get us an opt out of the free movement of people, even if only for a few years so we could build some houses and try and intergrate the people already here. HE also needed to find a way to stop EU courts over-riding our Home Secretary. When a foreign national abuses our hospitality and gets jailed, the Home Secretary should be able to deport them without being over-ridden by a EU judge on human rights grounds.

Them Cameron rolled out Obama, who said disrespectful things, about us being at the back of the queue. Then Cameron refused to go head to head with Farage in a debate which looked weak on his part. He had Farage make a speech then attacked when he said afterwards. Then he resorted to World War 3, before rolling out John Major and Tony Blair to win the day, 2 of the most discredited people in the history of our politics. Then he was so awful he asked Corbyn to save the day. Cameron has been badly exposed and lost this almost single handedly. Personally I lost all confidence in him from this debacle. Cameron has treated us like stupid children and misjudged us badly.

I also firmly believe this situation is mostly down to the EU, every problem has one solution... "MORE" integration. Finally they simply don't want to listen, or care about working class people which is the back bone of a population. People are so angry and now they have been MADE to listen.
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Post by SecretFly on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 11:49 pm

Sin é wrote:
Thats an old chart. From what I've read recently, UK would save about 6bn by leaving the EU. Then UK will have to pay to access the Single Market.

By the way, the UK gets less back from the EU because most of the money goes into the common agricultural policy so that England in particular has a cheap supply of food. The UK is dependent on imports to feed its large population.


An old chart? It's only three years old...they've been in the EEC/EU for 43 years. Considering Thatcher had her run-ins with the EU, I think the UK issues with the EU extend beyond three years, sin.

I doubt anyone will say the money given to Europe was the only issue but it's pointedly true that they've given more to the EU than they've got out of the EU. It doesn't matter about comparisons. Those Nations that have paid more per-person obviously don't have an issue with it - yet. The UK did.

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Post by Alex_Germany on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 11:49 pm

Nico the gman wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:"Meanwhile, Reuters news agency reports that many Britons working in European Union institutions feared for their jobs, with some in tears at work this morning"

That's one reason why I don't like all the cheering. There are people distraught over this - British people - and others are cheering and clapping and feeling that everything is great. It isn't.
In Teesside last year Redcar SSI workers were in tears after losing their jobs and 170 years of steel making, one of the main reasons cited by Anna Soubury was we must abide by EU laws so the government couldn't put money into it, needless to say Teesside voted heavily for Brexit, fearing for your job and losing it are 2 different things.

You know, next time a big factory somewhere goes bust, and workers lose their jobs, I might be a little bit out of sympathy. They probably voted for it.

I could almost (OK maybe not) have more sympathy for Morgan Stanley workers who voted against losing their jobs.

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Post by Alex_Germany on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 11:51 pm

lostinwales wrote:Of course things are not all fantastic in Europe but I do feel that a lot of the brexiteers have been sold a pup. I don't know how many actually understand our place in Europe (2nd biggest economy etc) and how it works.

I suspect it is now 3rd biggest economy, after last nights currency movements. Ahead of Italy for the moment though.

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 11:54 pm

Alex_Germany wrote:
Nico the gman wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:"Meanwhile, Reuters news agency reports that many Britons working in European Union institutions feared for their jobs, with some in tears at work this morning"

That's one reason why I don't like all the cheering. There are people distraught over this - British people - and others are cheering and clapping and feeling that everything is great. It isn't.
In Teesside last year Redcar SSI workers were in tears after losing their jobs and 170 years of steel making, one of the main reasons cited by Anna Soubury was we must abide by EU laws so the government couldn't put money into it, needless to say Teesside voted heavily for Brexit, fearing for your job and losing it are 2 different things.

You know, next time a big factory somewhere goes bust, and workers lose their jobs, I might be a little bit out of sympathy. They probably voted for it.

I could almost (OK maybe not) have more sympathy for Morgan Stanley workers who voted against losing their jobs.

Jobs are being lost? If only someone could have seen that coming.

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Post by SecretFly on Fri 24 Jun 2016, 11:56 pm

Alex_Germany wrote:

As for Scotland - can't blame them if they leave. They should do it ASAP and then structure it that England and Wales are leaving the UK and the EU, and Scotland remains with the UK's inherited rights. Perhaps Gibraltar woulf then become part of Scotland,.

Dear God, now that's going to have lawyers busy for years!!!

Why not make it much simpler.... the EU modifies itself dramatically to make themselves once more an attractive proposition - after all, it's the one cog that is no Nation and has no sovereign territory.

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Post by Shifty on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 12:03 am

Alex_Germany wrote:I think Europe has a choice of two actions, and hopefully Merkel and Hollande can talk this over with Cameron.

1. Offer a deal similar to Norway
-UK pays the same as its current net payment
-It has access to the single market
-It accepts free movement of people both ways
-It has to follow all the various product directives

2. Offer a deal based on world trade principles, similar to what Morocco of Algeria or Turkey get.

Option 1 hits UK GDP by 1.5% according to the IMF. Option 2 by upwards of 5.5% - and probably more. So really, whoever follows Cameron would have no choice but to accept the deal.

Would Europe offer Option 1? Financially it makes sense - Option 2 will hurt Europe as well. However, if they offer option 1, they may get other countries also wanting that. Now I actually think that could be a good thing - a larger EFTA and a smaller EU, but with the essentials shared: A single market and free movement.

The EU bureaucrat will play hard ball. As might Spain over Gibraltar. Germany and France might be more accommodating, if they can be persuaded that some countries moving to EFTA+ is not a disaster.

As for Scotland - can't blame them if they leave. They should do it ASAP and then structure it that England and Wales are leaving the UK and the EU, and Scotland remains with the UK's inherited rights. Perhaps Gibraltar woulf then become part of Scotland,.

Dear God Alex you have been active on this topic, and you still do not have a clue WHY we voted out, the area in RED is the whole issue. England is a tiny little place and it's bloody full, how come people in Europe don't get it. If we'd been given an opt out of free movement we'd still be in the EU and would of voted in by a massive percentage. The fact is I think the EU never thought we'd actually vote to leave and now are bricking it. Not just from us leaving, but because other countries will want to as well. The EU is trying to collect pigeon's like Albania and Serbia, and they were stupid enough to let a Golden Eagle fly out the window!

GB is a member of the World Trade Organisation we can walk from the EU tomorrow and trade with the EU under those rules, trade tariffs are between 4% and 10% I think.

The Scottish voted for the SNP and the Krankies (Nicola and Alex), and going to find any excuse to have as many referendums as they can until they get what they want. Frankly I'm happy to kick the Scots loose. Only England and Germany contribute positively to the EU budget, England is now leaving. Secondly English tax payers give the Scots £13bn a year because of the Barnett forumla. Finally the North Sea oil will run out in about 2040, not that far away. Throw in the fact that the SNP messed up their referendum budget by basing their numbers on oil at £110 a barrel, when it's now $35 a barrel. Then add in Scotland has hundreds of thousands of public sector jobs that the English have said they will move back to England, not to mention the problem of England refusing to build their military ships in Scotland if they leave the UK.
I'm quite happy to see what happens if the Scots leave.
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Post by lostinwales on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 12:05 am

Alex_Germany wrote:
lostinwales wrote:Of course things are not all fantastic in Europe but I do feel that a lot of the brexiteers have been sold a pup. I don't know how many actually understand our place in Europe (2nd biggest economy etc) and how it works.

I suspect it is now 3rd biggest economy, after last nights currency movements. Ahead of Italy for the moment though.

That's what I heard this morning but to be fair the pound did recover somewhat (Mainly due to some damn immigrant called Carney)

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Post by Duty281 on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 12:15 am

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/video/2016/jun/24/what-do-young-people-think-about-brexit-video

Summary: I didn't get what I wanted. I hate older people. This isn't fair. Sad Sad Sad Sad

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Post by GSC on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 12:18 am

Free movement is still a thing for at least 2 years.

They could always leave.

That's democracy though. Everyone has an equal say, not the special snowflakes.
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Post by aucklandlaurie on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 12:19 am

Sin é wrote:
aucklandlaurie wrote:
Sin é wrote:aucklandlaurie - can I ask you, why are you so anti-EU?

Several Reasons

The desertion in 1977 by the UK on its old Commonwealth allies that went around the World to fight and die for Britain.
So thats the UK's fault, not the EUs.


The way New Zealanders are treated once they have been in the UK travelling/working for 23 months, and are "asked to leave".

The trade restrictions applied to New Zealand products being marketed in the EU
There is a bilateral trade agreement between EU & New Zealand. EU imports from NZ in 2014: €8.1 bn. Imports from EU to NZ: €3.6bn.


The Subsidies granted to EU producers competing with New Zealand producers.
Britain (& EU) want a ready supply of cheap food (one of the reasons the EC was set up in the first place - food shortages from the war years and after it). I think you will find that once the UK leave the EU, the UK will be flooded with cheap food from north and south america - so your on the road to nowhere going that route.

I find it astonishing that Wales voted to leave the EU bearing in mind that farming in Wales is propped up to the tune of £200m a year in single farm payments).


And that's not even taking into consideration many reasons where Britain is suffering and being 'Ripped off' by being in the EU.
That just isn't true. Britain pretty much gets back everything they pay into the EU. In fact, the biggest contributor to the EU budget per head of population is The Netherlands (4 times more than what the UK contribute). On a per-head basis, UK are the 8th biggest contributors to the EU.

This chart shows who gives and gets back what.

The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll) - Page 13 Chart10



Sine die, It is 11 O'clock in the morning here and I am not drunk, so your figure of 8.1 bil Euro, imports from New Zealand 2014 is causing me some suspicion. If you dont mind me asking, How did you arrive at such a figure?....I know we're good,but we're not that good.

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Post by lostinwales on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 12:21 am

Shifty wrote:
lostinwales wrote:Of course things are not all fantastic in Europe but I do feel that a lot of the brexiteers have been sold a pup. I don't know how many actually understand our place in Europe (2nd biggest economy etc) and how it works. Campaigning on both sides was a joke, and you can fully understand people taking the opportunity to give the government a good kicking - but at what cost.

There is also the irony of areas which received most European funding being the areas which voted in greatest numbers to go.

I know this video has been getting a lot of hits and I can't honestly remember seeing if it has been linked here or not, but this is a talk by a guy whose life's work has been studying how Europe works, Prof Michael Dougan from Liverpool University
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USTypBKEd8Y

I really hope I am wrong, and so often with these things the changes are less than you'd expect, but today is genuinely a day which has made me worry about the future of my kids.

The Green part is important.  Cameron botched the renegotiation.  For me he needed to get us an opt out of the free movement of people, even if only for a few years so we could build some houses and try and intergrate the people already here.  HE also needed to find a way to stop EU courts over-riding our Home Secretary.  When a foreign national abuses our hospitality and gets jailed, the Home Secretary should be able to deport them without being over-ridden by a EU judge on human rights grounds.

Them Cameron rolled out Obama, who said disrespectful things, about us being at the back of the queue.  Then Cameron refused to go head to head with Farage in a debate which looked weak on his part.  He had Farage make a speech then attacked when he said afterwards.  Then he resorted to World War 3, before rolling out John Major and Tony Blair to win the day, 2 of the most discredited people in the history of our politics.   Then he was so awful he asked Corbyn to save the day.  Cameron has been badly exposed and lost this almost single handedly.  Personally I lost all confidence in him from this debacle.  Cameron has treated us like stupid children and misjudged us badly.  

I also firmly believe this situation is mostly down to the EU, every problem has one solution... "MORE" integration.  Finally they simply don't want to listen, or care about working class people which is the back bone of a population.  People are so angry and now they have been MADE to listen.

I'll always agree with someone putting the boot in on Cameron who has never impressed me, and there is some interesting stuff here.

I cannot claim to be an EU expert but I have started learning a few things very quickly. One is that what we have opted out of is the economic union. The agreements/treaties/whatever we have with the EU courts is different and we haven't agreed to opt out of that yet. Another is that we have been a very important part of the EU mechanism. It's not as simple as us and them if we are also heavily involved in their decision making. But we don't get that. We just get fed stories about regulations over how straight bananas should be for the last 20 years.

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Post by SecretFly on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 12:33 am

aucklandlaurie wrote:



 Sine die, It is 11 O'clock in the morning here and I am not drunk, so your figure of 8.1 bil Euro, imports from New Zealand 2014 is causing me some suspicion. If you dont mind me asking, How did you arrive at such a figure?....I know we're good,but we're not that good.

Is that a misprint, Laurie?

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Post by aucklandlaurie on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 12:39 am

SecretFly wrote:
aucklandlaurie wrote:



 Sine die, It is 11 O'clock in the morning here and I am not drunk, so your figure of 8.1 bil Euro, imports from New Zealand 2014 is causing me some suspicion. If you dont mind me asking, How did you arrive at such a figure?....I know we're good,but we're not that good.

Is that a misprint, Laurie?

The resumption of proceedings after no specified date of hearing had been allocated ....I apologise for my witless humour founded on Sine's title.

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Post by ShahenshahG on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 12:43 am

I think those figures are broadly accurate Laurie. I remember some figures about sheep meat from a total of about 7.8 billion in 2015. New Zealand is a powerhouse and punches well above its weight in some respects.

As for that video. It was the best piece of info in the entire referendum campaign. They should have put this man front and centre of the campaign. Just to let you know the office where I work is going to be directlt unaffected by Brexit. Unfortunately we received a message which underlined UK and was notable in the absence of reassurance for the European arm which operates from the same office. I suspect were going to lose some of the brightest minds in Europe as they get moved back to rhe continent while our own bright minds might up sticks and head across so they can benefit from the free movement zone. I don't say this to stick the boot into leave...I say this as a man proud to work for a company at the forefront of medical advancement even if I'm just a lowly security guard. I don't know what this means for my company in 20 years time but I do know that a draft was made to almost treble the pay received by our scienctists and doctors with proposals for properties and other arrangements in the offing. This cost will be borne by the NHS as the price for our services and products increases by a couple of billion.

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Post by SecretFly on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 12:44 am

Ah no, I assumed it was humorous Laurie...as in I know you didn't wish death on poor old Sin Wink - but it's probably too late here for me to be sharp enough to get the die bit...even still.  It's me - I'm knackered.  It has been one long momentous day.

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Post by aucklandlaurie on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 12:49 am

SecretFly wrote:Ah no, I assumed it was humorous Laurie...as in I know you didn't wish death on poor old Sin Wink - but it's probably too late here for me to be sharp enough to get the die bit...even still.  It's me - I'm knackered.  It has been one long momentous day.

Google "Sine die".

If Sin e is going to pull out another of his "old charts", I'll go up there and kill him myself.

I can only guess how massive a day it has been for everyone in Britain and Ireland, yes there will be times of disruption and uncertainty afoot but all of you can and will handle it and I'm picking come back in a stronger position.

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Post by Duty281 on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 2:39 am

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/top-eu-leader-we-want-britain-out-as-soon-as-possible

The EU want this exit to be as fast as possible.

The Remain campaign falsely told us, against all logic and reason, that the EU would make this a long, drawn-out affair.

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Post by Hero on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 9:00 am

The UK has had its credit rating outlook downgraded to "negative" by the ratings agency Moody's after the country voted to leave the EU.
Moody's said the result would herald "a prolonged period of uncertainty".
Meanwhile, PM David Cameron is under pressure to speed up "divorce" talks with the EU after Brussels said exit negotiations should start immediately.
EU head Jean-Claude Juncker said it was "not an amicable divorce", but it was "not a tight love affair anyway".
Moody's said the referendum result would have "negative implications for the country's medium-term growth outlook", and it lowered the UK's long term issuer and debt ratings to "negative" from "stable".
It added: "In Moody's view, the negative effect from lower economic growth will outweigh the fiscal savings from the UK no longer having to contribute to the EU budget."
It also said the UK had one of the largest budget deficits among advanced economies.
Colin Ellis, chief credit officer at Moody's, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the UK's credit rating could have an impact on UK households in the long term.
"The government borrowing rate is normally the benchmark - it is the rate at which other interest rates in the economy are set," he said.
"A lower rating would typically correspond to higher borrowing costs, and that would be felt not just by the government but by businesses and households in the longer term."

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Post by Afro on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 9:40 am

So we are already worse off as our budget deficit and existing debt will now cost us more which will result in either higher taxes, lower public spending or increasing debt.

Be interesting to see how much of the money that we don't have to send to the EU going forward will now be needed paying finance costs instead.
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Post by Ent on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 10:13 am

Up to the government to make some big decisions and stabilise things, much like the ones they criticised Gordon Brown for.

I do feel screwed over by the baby boomers, they all are retired in their nice pensions- the current working generation were screwed pension wise before we left the eu.

I hope they get it right and get it right quick, I don't want to spend 10-20 years of my life, raising my kids etc in times of hardship. Not necessarily for myself but society as a whole.

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Post by Afro on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 10:21 am

We do have to pull together. Whilst it is clear that the country was divided almost equally, we are on the journey now so we need to make it work as well as we can. Inevitably we will need to tighten our belts and there will be a threat to jobs, but that doesn't mean there aren't positives and those are what we need to make the most of.
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Post by Guest on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 11:15 am

Ent wrote:I do feel screwed over by the baby boomers

Punched us in the face, now with this vote, they're kicking us on the floor. Mind-boggling how anyone over 80 should be allowed to vote, for the future of the country.

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Post by Ent on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 11:32 am

I know 82 year old on 5 live last night going on about immigrants and not to worry as Britain is great.

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Post by Afro on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 11:53 am

I heard one on the radio talking about it will now stop the Syrian refugees. Just demonstrates that some didn't really understand what they were voting for or against.
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Post by Ent on Sat 25 Jun 2016, 11:59 am

Afro wrote:I heard one on the radio talking about it will now stop the Syrian refugees. Just demonstrates that some didn't really understand what they were voting for or against.

I don't think most did tbh

Spent much of yesterday listening to 5 live, watching various th channels and a bit of stuff online.

Main reasons people have for voting leave where; immigrants taking jobs and stressing the nhs which isn't true. The 350 million a week, again not true. One person said they new nothing about it and just fancied a change.

Democracy in action.

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