World Ranking Points over the next few months...

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Post by Poorfour on Sun 26 Jun - 21:14

So. The thing about the ranking points system is that it's a points exchange. You take points off a team if you beat them, or give them away if you lose. But the system is calibrated so that if you have a lead of more than 10 points, you don't get any points for winning (and they don't lose any). That gap is adjusted by a 3 point boost to the home team.

As of Monday, New Zealand will be 10 points ahead of everyone bar England and South Africa, and I think they will be around 9 points ahead of SA. The away games in the RC will allow them to pick up a few fractions of a point, but they won't be able to build their total by much.

Meanwhile, England can still close the gap on them. I think it's just about possible that, if England can win all their Autumn Internationals and next year's 6N (neither of which is an easy task), they could accumulate enough points to overtake them.

I'm not sure what that really means (I think a team needs to beat NZ regularly to have any legitimate claim to be the best in the world - which I freely acknowledge is different to how I feel about being second in the rankings), but I thought it was an interesting point given the two teams won't play each other for some time.
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Post by Exiledinborders on Sun 26 Jun - 23:07

Surely if England close in on NZ then they also will be ten points clear of the other teams and will also not be able to gain further points to overtake NZ.

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Post by robbo277 on Mon 27 Jun - 0:12

Because of the effect that Exiledinborders mentioned, the only way England will overtake New Zealand without beating New Zealand is if the ABs themselves start dropping matches, in which case the argument that they are the undisputed best will be up for debate anyway.

It's a shame that the two teams won't meet for until 2017 at the earliest and it's a shame they're in such high demand that we will only get one game against them. A two or three match series against the All Blacks would be something for sure.

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Post by aucklandlaurie on Mon 27 Jun - 0:36


The higher up the rankings you go, the harder it gets.

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Post by Poorfour on Mon 27 Jun - 2:42

aucklandlaurie wrote:
The higher up the rankings you go, the harder it gets.

Quite. But by my reckoning England have four or possibly five matches in the AIs and 6N where they can take some points (SA, Aus, Wales and Ireland away, possibly France), whereas NZ only really have one - SA away
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Post by yappysnap on Mon 27 Jun - 6:02

Where are Eng touring next summer?

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Post by Poorfour on Mon 27 Jun - 6:18

yappysnap wrote:Where are Eng touring next summer?

It's a Lions year, so traditionally we tour Argentina. There are no allowances for taking a depleted squad.
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Post by Gooseberry on Mon 27 Jun - 16:44

England catching NZ in the rankings would rely on SA having won a few games against them, and as things stand that doesnt look massively likely.
As much as the ABs will only be getting tiny gains form any wins over the next cycle the same holds for england with the fixtures they have lined up, its only SA that are closely rated to them and that will have a +3 home weighting on it.

Theres a lot of if buts maybes of course but unless something really odd happens in the RC the ratings/rankings are likely to have not changed significantly ahead of the AIs.

If England do somehow make it to 17 wins in a row then to me thats a bigger story than whether or not they have overtaken overtaken NZ in the rankings.

Of course they still wouldnt be the second best team in the world as they hadnt beaten SA away for a while Rolling Eyes

...and there then the small matter of actually winning these games. Its a relatively soft fixture list but "getting ahead of yourself" would be an apt phrase here. Even during the golden era England regualalry blew grandslams. Ireland and France both seem to have got their confidence back. Wales might get to field something like their best side. SA are Englands bogey side.

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Post by aucklandlaurie on Mon 27 Jun - 17:36

Tiny gains??

Its harder than that, a month ago the ABs were on 96.10.
They've just won three tests in a row, two being over the 15 point threshold, and guess what they're still on 96.10.

The ABs however do have time on their side, they would have to lose a number of tests to come back to England due to size of the gap, the gap between teams 1 and 2 is the largest gap between any other two teams in the 102 team World Rugby ranked teams.

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Post by yappysnap on Mon 27 Jun - 18:07

Let's see how they do against SA first, all of this is a moo point if we lose to them first up.

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Post by Poorfour on Mon 27 Jun - 20:03

Having tried a rough calculation, assuming there are no massive points swings in the RC England could get to about 91-92 points by the end of the 6N, but the future returns get smaller and smaller. So unless NZ lose a game or two in the RC, England can't catch them without playing them...

But yes, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. South Africa first up in the Autumn will be a big test - though if they continue to play the way they did against Ireland during the RC they won't seem quite such a mountain to climb. Very impressed with Faf de Klerk, by the way.

I'm a lot less worried about Australia and the Wales away game than I was a month ago; Australia will no doubt improve with Toomua back in the side, but they threw everything at England and it still wasn't enough. Wales look out of ideas, and Eddie's use of the England bench makes them less able to spring a last ditch fightback. As long as he doesn't pick an out-of-shape Tuilagi again...

Ireland away is the game that worries me most. It has proven to be a major stumbling block for previous England teams. Winning in Dublin would be a fantastic result.
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Post by nganboy on Mon 27 Jun - 20:17

Actually I like that we are not playing England too regularly. They did just tour NZ in 2014 remember. In fact I wish we would do more three game series and play fewer teams each year. For example after this Wales tour, I'd be happier to play SA 3 times and Scotland 3 times with a game against Georgia and Tonga squeezed in between. Then do the same pattern next year with for example Ireland, Australia and France with Russia and USA getting a game each.
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Post by Alex_Germany on Mon 27 Jun - 20:43

New Zealand should quit world rugby now. That way, they'll remain No 1 in the rankings for ever.

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Post by aucklandlaurie on Tue 28 Jun - 0:39

Alex, nothing is for ever, us kiwis know that one day Wales will beat the All Blacks again, one day Ireland will beat the All Blacks, and one day someone else will take over the top spot in the World rankings.

What New Zealand can do in the meantime is play the game at a higher level than everyone else, and sit back and see where it takes us.


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Post by Alex_Germany on Tue 28 Jun - 1:28

aucklandlaurie wrote:Alex, nothing is for ever, us kiwis know that one day Wales will beat the All Blacks again, one day Ireland will beat the All Blacks, and one day someone else will take over the top spot in the World rankings.

What New Zealand can do in the meantime is play the game at a higher level than everyone else, and sit back and see where it takes us.

LOL!

I was just kidding - we'd miss the All Blacks if they left at No 1. Though I think South Africa tried a similar tactic for a decade or so in the 1980s.

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Post by Poorfour on Tue 28 Jun - 18:21

Reflecting on it, I quite like the fact that if there is a clear best team in the world you effectively have to beat them to overtake them as the best team - but by the same token if there were a cluster of teams on a similar level then a good run against a mix of opposition might be enough to take you clear.
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Post by Rugby Fan on Tue 28 Jun - 20:09

NZ have now won 11 straight matches. If they manage a clean sweep at the Rugby Championship, then the team will match the record for consecutive Test wins by a top team, which they hold with South Africa.

That would make Bledisoe 3 at Eden Park a potential record breaker.

A clean sweep is always hard but relative form gives them a chance this year.




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Post by robbo277 on Wed 29 Jun - 4:23

England have a decent chance at the current record, if someone can topple the All Blacks.

4 tests at Twickenham in the Autumn without the ABs coming to town is about as easy as it gets in the Autumn (which isn't to say it's easy at all!), but should England get through those they'd be on 14.

To beat the current record, they'd need to then win the first 4 Six Nations games. These are the 3 blue teams and Wales away. Again, probably the best we could hope for to have 3 home games in that run.

South Africa H - lost last meeting narrowly but SA not convincing against Ireland.
Argentina H - never lost to them at home?
Fiji H - never lost to them
Australia H - decent form against them!
Scotland H - haven't lost at Twickenham for 20+ years?
France H - haven't lost at Twickenham for 10 years or so?
Italy H - haven't lost to them
Wales A - won 3 of our last 4 (including our last one away) although lost the one that mattered most

England could conceivably break the record for most consecutive test wins and still be second in the World Rankings.

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Post by robbo277 on Wed 29 Jun - 4:27

Done some calculations based on my gut and England's chance in each match in isolation and I give England about a 20% shot of getting to 18 consecutive wins.

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Post by Not grey and not a ghost on Wed 29 Jun - 13:00

NZ's schedule is:
Australia A - 3 wins, 2 draws and a loss in Australia under Hansen
Australia H - Won the last 18 games against Australia in NZ.
Argentina H - Haven't lost to Argentina
South Africa H - AB's have won the last 6 against the boks in NZ.
Argentina A - See above
South Africa A - 3 wins and 1 loss in the Republic for Hansen.
Australia H - See above
Ireland N - Haven't lost to Ireland
Italy A - Haven't lost to Italy
Ireland A - See above
France A - AB's have won 5 straight in France.

Unlikely the AB's will go unbeaten. The mostly likely games we'll lose would be Australia (away), Boks (away), France (away) or Ireland (away). 1 or 2 losses would be normal, 3 would be considered poor, anything more would be thought of as dismal.

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Post by Jimpy on Wed 29 Jun - 21:05

Poorfour wrote:Having tried a rough calculation, assuming there are no massive points swings in the RC England could get to about 91-92 points by the end of the 6N, but the future returns get smaller and smaller. So unless NZ lose a game or two in the RC, England can't catch them without playing them...

But yes, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. South Africa first up in the Autumn will be a big test - though if they continue to play the way they did against Ireland during the RC they won't seem quite such a mountain to climb. Very impressed with Faf de Klerk, by the way.

I'm a lot less worried about Australia and the Wales away game than I was a month ago; Australia will no doubt improve with Toomua back in the side, but they threw everything at England and it still wasn't enough. Wales look out of ideas, and Eddie's use of the England bench makes them less able to spring a last ditch fightback. As long as he doesn't pick an out-of-shape Tuilagi again...

Ireland away is the game that worries me most. It has proven to be a major stumbling block for previous England teams. Winning in Dublin would be a fantastic result.

So let me get this straight, you would worry more for an England team that's just won three on the bounce v Australia in Australia going to Dublin?

Headscratch

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