The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll)

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Post by Electric Demon on Sun 26 Jun 2016, 6:17 pm

First topic message reminder :

It's not Labour or Corbyn's fault either

In this age of entitlement, "the workers" who traditionally voted Labour take the welfare state for granted and are now bizarrely right wing, even though they rely on the welfare policies of the left. (I am aware this is generalisation - but hey, that seems to be the crux of the thread)

The left and the working classes are completely at odds with each other now - which is a massive problem for Labour. It has to become 2 different parties because it won't be able to unite those 2 forces when there is a rejection of experts. But when that happens then there will be no party remotely able to challenge the Conservatives.


Last edited by Cassius Zhi on Sun 26 Jun 2016, 6:19 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Changes "intelligence" to "experts" as that was very poor choice of words)

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Post by Corporalhumblebucket on Sun 26 Jun 2016, 11:06 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Corporalhumblebucket wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Turkey was going to join the EU (in about ten years I would estimate).
Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

Pardon?
 Simply an expression of mega/ultra surprise at the suggestion that Turkey was going to join the EU in about 10 years. I find that, well, incredible considering that Turkey is such a huge country and one which is way, way outside meeting the criteria for membership of the EU.

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Post by Dolphin Ziggler on Sun 26 Jun 2016, 11:09 pm

I don't know if he isn't fit for it, I just think people have come to accept politicians being game players so much that the fact he is honest doesn't sit well. Labour want to win, so they are annoyed Corbyn won't just tow a party line. I respect him more than any of our current lot, even with his interesting past, but can see in the end that he may be a better man than the system he is in.

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Post by SecretFly on Sun 26 Jun 2016, 11:11 pm

Maybe now that the UK is gone - the EU (or leaders thereof) might now change the criteria for membership for Turkey.

That Leave poster might actually prove prophetic.

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Post by catchweight on Sun 26 Jun 2016, 11:11 pm

Boris is making this up as he goes along. Unbelievably misleading whats hes saying and impossible to promise. He will be changing the terms of the Leave now. I woudnt even put it past him to U-turn completely on this and recommend never invoking the actual Leave process. "Maybe if I wait long enough and never invoke this article then people will forget in a years time".

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Post by GSC on Sun 26 Jun 2016, 11:11 pm

I respect his commitment to his ideals. But ideals are pointless if you're always on the other side of the house that actually gets to legislate.

He's unelectable as leader of a major political party, system or no.
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Post by GSC on Sun 26 Jun 2016, 11:13 pm

I think Boris is much more devious than he lets on publically.

Just ask DC and Osbourne about the risks of underestimating.
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Post by Duty281 on Sun 26 Jun 2016, 11:16 pm

catchweight wrote:Boris is making this up as he goes along. Unbelievably misleading whats hes saying and impossible to promise. He will be changing the terms of the Leave now. I woudnt even put it past him to U-turn completely on this and recommend never invoking the actual Leave process. "Maybe if I wait long enough and never invoke this article then people will forget in a years time".

As I've said before, I firmly believe that we won't Leave the EU even though we have voted for it.

There will be, at the very least, a second referendum in the next 18 months with a raft of 'concessions' on their way to ensure that we vote the right way. And the goalposts may be shifted as well.

This first referendum is merely the end of the beginning.

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Post by catchweight on Sun 26 Jun 2016, 11:20 pm

Hes hugely devious and hes willing to treat massive issues as a gambling game. He will say anything. I think hes doing terrible damage. Hes spoofing everyone. Leave and Remain.

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Post by Guest on Sun 26 Jun 2016, 11:21 pm

SecretFly wrote:
Munchkin wrote:

He may have been a type that fitted well with the EU prior to Brexit but, post Brexit, the EU will reform, and his type surplus to requirements. His knife in the back to the Remain camp, on the eve of election day, has angered many. His obvious lack of diplomatic skills coupled with his intransigence in negotiations will sink him, I feel. Merkel has already sent out a warning, and other EU supporters are calling for his resignation. The EU Elite will not want anyone so reckless to cause further upset, not even one of their own.

It's too late though, I think.  The EU identity has been branded into our conscience.  The problem isn't a change of 'mood' or 'tone' or for once an actual 'smiling' face running the place.  Like I said, the spring clean will need more than a duster and if the EU tries to change the face but keep to the message and the long term plans then it's not going to fool anyone.  It's the EU that needs changing from any side they want, top to bottom or bottom to top.  It's the Product that needs to be changed not the face that sells it.

It has to be a change from the heart. The EU needs meaningful reform to convince the doubters, or the project will fail. The EU needs to become something that the people on the street feel they can engage in, and that can only happen if it becomes more accountable, more democratic. There is talk from the likes of Merkel that these types of reform are on the table. There is still talk of closer union though, so it will be interesting to see what transpires over the coming weeks and months.

I don't believe the EU is about to fall apart. I think it will struggle through a period of transition and possibly come out stronger. I don't know if I will like the changes, I have my doubts. Time will tell.

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Post by guildfordbat on Sun 26 Jun 2016, 11:26 pm

Corporalhumblebucket wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Turkey was going to join the EU (in about ten years I would estimate).
Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

Blimey, that's 2 more  Shocked s than Chris Adams ever got. [Surrey cricket reference for non-followers.]

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Post by SecretFly on Sun 26 Jun 2016, 11:29 pm

Look, admit it, you're all looking forward to that first official meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Boris.  

Now that's going to be one wonderful meeting as they both talk to the media about what they've talked about in the backroom.

Trump: "Great.  Great.  The meeting was Great.  We had a Great meeting.  We discussed things and it's... it's how we intend to do thing in future.  It's good to talk.  It's been a Great meeting."

Boris: "We discussed the Berlin wall.  I informed the President that wall was indeed made of concrete.  We discussed why Winston Churchill called it an Iron Curtain and we agreed it was possibly a metaphor of some sort because a concrete wall does the job better....less rust.  We've agreed to keep in touch about this issue as the President's Kevlar wall continues apace to keep the Syrians out of his golf course in Scotland."

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Post by Guest on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 4:34 am

We know all politicians are liars.  We know that politicians on the remain side lied.  We know that politicians on the brexit side lied.  The fact that Britain is now leaderless, the fact that both parties have imploded, the fact that the UK & NI is on the point of splitting proves that our politicians know that Britain is now in deep do do.  I wonder what it is like being a politician - being privy to information and lying through their teeth to feed their own egoism, promote their own career prospects and to hide their own failings.  Tis the way of the world.  Let the ignorant fight amongst themselves. Let them eat cake dirt.

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Post by Alex_Germany on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 7:29 am

Duty281 wrote:
Alex_Germany wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Hero wrote:
GSC wrote:To be fair, all that says is they're joining the EU. I get the inference but such political half truths are hardly a new concept.

Again this defence of it being a 'half truth'
It is not a half truth. It is a lie.

Are you saying Britain Stronger in Europe and/or Labour In for Britain never lied?

Can you give an example?

The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll) - Page 4 Ckh8sTkXEAAsLk0

That's not a lie. One million jobs are at stake. You can extrapolate that from the IMF forecast. If the UK is unable to reach a trade agreement, then GDP will be hit by at least 5%. That is 1 million jobs.

A EEA type agreement will limit the damage, but it's not a foregone conclusion that the UK joins the EEA. Will one million jobs be lost? Probably and hopefully not. Are 1 million jobs at stake? Absolutely.

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Post by Rowley on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 7:33 am

Sin é wrote:
Boris in Telegraph wrote:

I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be. There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment. EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.

British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer.

The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal. This will bring not threats, but golden opportunities for this country – to pass laws and set taxes according to the needs of the UK.

So, the British Government doesn't set taxes now? How come every EU country has different tax rates?

It is interesting to see he has swerved the question of free movement. I'll predict it now nothing will change in that respect. No extra money into the NHS and no restrictions on immigration. You do have to wonder how much of a win this will actually be for leave.

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Post by Alex_Germany on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 7:36 am

Sin é wrote:
Boris in Telegraph wrote:

I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be. There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment. EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.

British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer.

The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal. This will bring not threats, but golden opportunities for this country – to pass laws and set taxes according to the needs of the UK.

So, the British Government doesn't set taxes now? How come every EU country has different tax rates?

"British people will still be able to go and work in the EU;[/b] to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down."

It seems like Johnson wants the UK in the EEA. Of course, that's the sensible option, though might upset the racist and illiberal wings of the Brexit movement.

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Post by Alex_Germany on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 7:41 am

SecretFly wrote:Maybe now that the UK is gone - the EU (or leaders thereof) might now change the criteria for membership for Turkey.

That Leave poster might actually prove prophetic.

The membership criteria for Turkey still need approval from every country in the EU. It won't happen.

What might happen is the the EU sets up a Free Trade Area, covering Goods but not services, no freedom of movement of people, and a requirement to respect some basic human rights, principles of democracy and control of corruption. This will be aimed at neighbouring countries who are way too poor to join the EU, but where the EU has an interest in developing them. There's more chance of England joining that than of Turkey joining the EU.

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Post by Dave. on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 7:42 am

The quote function is working on my phone.

That's all true Ent - there was some dissent in the UUP as well. Just see thst most unionists who were remain are saying 'ok, let's adjust to the new normal ' - notwithstanding the border issue, which coming from six miles from the border I totally get. I say all this as no fan of the DUP.

It's from Republicans (and the liberals to a lesser extent) that are spitting blind fury and spoutng all old people are racists etc etc. That was to be expected, ironic all the same.

As a bare minimum; the Common Travel Area continues - we had that before the EEC.

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Post by Ent on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 7:46 am

Osbourne speech this morning.

Highlighted importance of previous repairs to economy in being able to with stand an exit. Discussions with Bank of England, g7 and other financial ministers.

Also said article 50 won't be envoked until a new pm is appointed and no budget until then.

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Post by Ent on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 7:51 am

Dave. wrote:The quote function is working on my phone.

That's all true Ent - there was some dissent in the UUP as well. Just see thst most unionists who were remain are saying 'ok, let's adjust to the new normal ' - notwithstanding the border issue, which coming from six miles from the border I totally get. I say all this as no fan of the DUP.

It's from Republicans (and the liberals to a lesser extent) that are spitting blind fury and spoutng all old people are racists etc etc. That was to be expected, ironic all the same.

As a bare minimum; the Common Travel Area continues - we had that before the EEC.

No doubt the cta will remain, not happy with border checks or cost of policing the border etc

Was hard enough to get gov north and south to agree to jointly funded projects prior to this.

Unionists in general will have voted leave, not surprised at that reaction. Sinn Fein, sdlp etc mirroring reaction from remain vote in rUK.

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Post by ShahenshahG on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 8:24 am

Are you still undecided? Are you someone who – pummelled by weeks of claim and counter-claim – has been left exhausted and annoyed? Have you been looking for answers, yet all you’ve encountered are insults and exaggeration?

Maybe you’re so fed up you think to hell with it, let’s throw caution to the wind and vote Brexit. Imagine, however, what happens next. Imagine how you will feel on 24 June?

Having woken on Friday to the news we’re quitting the EU, you will assume that those who persuaded you to take that leap of faith have a plan about what to do next.

So imagine how dismayed you will feel when you discover, instead, that Nigel Farage, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson can’t agree among themselves what life outside the EU looks like? They may be united by a ferocious loathing of the EU, but they have no shared plan for the future.

Gridlock

So you will look towards our leaders in Westminster to sort out the mess. Instead, they argue among themselves: the Conservatives descend into a bloody leadership election; Parliament enters years of constitutional gridlock trying to extricate itself from the intricate legal stitching which binds us to the EU and gives us access to world markets.

Then you discover just how unprepared the Government is – that there simply aren’t enough trade negotiators in Whitehall, for instance, with the expertise to renegotiate 50 or so international trade accords.

As politicians bicker, you become increasingly unnerved by what’s happening in the economy, too: overseas investors take fright; money flows out of the country; our credit rating is slashed; the interest on our borrowing goes up; unemployment rises; sterling tanks; prices in the shops go up.

Nicola Sturgeon soon announces that preparations have started for a second independence referendum, claiming it is the only way to keep Scotland in the EU. And this time most commentators think that she will win.

Still, at least they will finally sort out our borders, right? After all, ending mass immigration was the Brexiteers biggest claim of all.

So imagine how you’ll feel when you discover that they don’t have a plan for that either? Some argue for a new land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to stop EU immigrants coming in through the “back door”. Others that a new border would harm the peace in Northern Ireland. The Australian points system which they advocate is no solution either – it has led to immigration levels twice as high as in the UK.

Panic

Panic starts to spread among the 1.3 million Brits who live, study and retire elsewhere in the EU. Spanish politicians start to complain about paying for public services used by British pensioners. If we start excluding Spanish doctors and nurses, why should they keep paying for our pensioners?

And then there’s that faintly queasy feeling you get when you see Donald Trump on the TV, visiting the UK on Friday, declaring his joy at the Brexit vote.

Meanwhile Angela Merkel invites President Obama to an emergency summit to discuss the fallout – the UK is, of course, excluded from what soon emerges as the new “special relationship” between the US and Germany.

The Brexiteers say you will “regain control”. But it won’t feel like that. Instead, the economy lurches to recession; there’s upheaval in Westminster; no plan to allay concerns about immigration; another referendum in Scotland; a steep slide in Britain’s standing in the world.

Our wonderful country adrift – not in control. And for what? Nigel, Michael and Boris still won’t be able to tell you why.

Mystic Clegg Laugh


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Post by funnyExiledScot on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 8:30 am

Duty281 wrote:
catchweight wrote:Boris is making this up as he goes along. Unbelievably misleading whats hes saying and impossible to promise. He will be changing the terms of the Leave now. I woudnt even put it past him to U-turn completely on this and recommend never invoking the actual Leave process. "Maybe if I wait long enough and never invoke this article then people will forget in a years time".

As I've said before, I firmly believe that we won't Leave the EU even though we have voted for it.

There will be, at the very least, a second referendum in the next 18 months with a raft of 'concessions' on their way to ensure that we vote the right way. And the goalposts may be shifted as well.

This first referendum is merely the end of the beginning.

Well for once I hope you're right. That would be the ideal scenario, but I doubt the mouth breathers who voted Leave because they "wanted things to be the way they used to be", or because they are "fed up of having to drink European milk" (two of my favourite interviews over the weekend) will accept that.

The "free trade and sovereignty" Leavers will be fine with that compromise, in fact I think it's what they have wanted all along, but the ones who dribble when putting on their shoes in the morning will not be fine. They'll feel disenfranchised. They voted for the clock to be turned back to when England last won the World Cup, and they certainly won't understand the distinction between free movement of labour and free movement of persons. To them any sort free movement that isn't a caravan holiday in Devon is what has destroyed this country.

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 8:31 am

Ent wrote:Osbourne speech this morning.

Highlighted importance of previous repairs to economy in being able to with stand an exit. Discussions with Bank of England, g7 and other financial ministers.

Also said article 50 won't be envoked until a new pm is appointed and no budget until then.

Ah, so maybe he will stand for the leadership after all......

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Post by Alex_Germany on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 8:36 am

funnyExiledScot wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
catchweight wrote:Boris is making this up as he goes along. Unbelievably misleading whats hes saying and impossible to promise. He will be changing the terms of the Leave now. I woudnt even put it past him to U-turn completely on this and recommend never invoking the actual Leave process. "Maybe if I wait long enough and never invoke this article then people will forget in a years time".

As I've said before, I firmly believe that we won't Leave the EU even though we have voted for it.

There will be, at the very least, a second referendum in the next 18 months with a raft of 'concessions' on their way to ensure that we vote the right way. And the goalposts may be shifted as well.

This first referendum is merely the end of the beginning.

Well for once I hope you're right. That would be the ideal scenario, but I doubt the mouth breathers who voted Leave because they "wanted things to be the way they used to be", or because they are "fed up of having to drink European milk" (two of my favourite interviews over the weekend) will accept that.

The "free trade and sovereignty" Leavers will be fine with that compromise, in fact I think it's what they have wanted all along, but the ones who dribble when putting on their shoes in the morning will not be fine. They'll feel disenfranchised. They voted for the clock to be turned back to when England last won the World Cup, and they certainly won't understand the distinction between free movement of labour and free movement of persons. To them any sort free movement that isn't a caravan holiday in Devon is what has destroyed this country.

As Voltaire didn't quite say, "I may disagree with what the vote said, but I will defend the right of them to have their say. No matter how stupid".

The UK will leave the EU. Almost certainly it will enter the EEA, maintaining free trade, free movement of people, and making contributions to the EU structural fund. It really has no other sane choice.

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 8:39 am

Alex_Germany wrote:
Sin é wrote:
Boris in Telegraph wrote:

I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be. There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment. EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.

British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer.

The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal. This will bring not threats, but golden opportunities for this country – to pass laws and set taxes according to the needs of the UK.

So, the British Government doesn't set taxes now? How come every EU country has different tax rates?

"British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down."

It seems like Johnson wants the UK in the EEA. Of course, that's the sensible option, though might upset the racist and illiberal wings of the Brexit movement.

Daniel Hannan retreated to this position as well. It really is remarkable. I can't work out whether this is simply a ploy to calm everyone down ("Don't worry, nothing will really change", and then it does) or whether they really didn't think they'd win (or really wanted to win), and that they are now truly terrified of the prospect of having to pick up the pieces from this wreckage.

I also find it remarkable that people think a Remainer can be the next PM. How on Earth can we have strong leadership through this process of tearing ourselves out of the EU being led by someone who thinks that it is completely the wrong thing to do. How could a new PM, on the first morning of the job, serve notice under Article 50 if they completely disagree with doing so? Sure, by all means have some balance in the negotiating team, someone like William Hague (a "Eurosceptic Remainer"), but I really don't see us with a "Remain" PM leading us out of the EU. It has to be Boris, with Gove glued to his side to tell him what to say.

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 8:43 am

Alex_Germany wrote:
funnyExiledScot wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
catchweight wrote:Boris is making this up as he goes along. Unbelievably misleading whats hes saying and impossible to promise. He will be changing the terms of the Leave now. I woudnt even put it past him to U-turn completely on this and recommend never invoking the actual Leave process. "Maybe if I wait long enough and never invoke this article then people will forget in a years time".

As I've said before, I firmly believe that we won't Leave the EU even though we have voted for it.

There will be, at the very least, a second referendum in the next 18 months with a raft of 'concessions' on their way to ensure that we vote the right way. And the goalposts may be shifted as well.

This first referendum is merely the end of the beginning.

Well for once I hope you're right. That would be the ideal scenario, but I doubt the mouth breathers who voted Leave because they "wanted things to be the way they used to be", or because they are "fed up of having to drink European milk" (two of my favourite interviews over the weekend) will accept that.

The "free trade and sovereignty" Leavers will be fine with that compromise, in fact I think it's what they have wanted all along, but the ones who dribble when putting on their shoes in the morning will not be fine. They'll feel disenfranchised. They voted for the clock to be turned back to when England last won the World Cup, and they certainly won't understand the distinction between free movement of labour and free movement of persons. To them any sort free movement that isn't a caravan holiday in Devon is what has destroyed this country.

As Voltaire didn't quite say, "I may disagree with what the vote said, but I will defend the right of them to have their say. No matter how stupid".

The UK will leave the EU. Almost certainly it will enter the EEA, maintaining free trade, free movement of people, and making contributions to the EU structural fund. It really has no other sane choice.

We're not in the business of sane choices anymore. The best description of these times that I keep hearing is the "post-truth" era. That the US has a 50/50 shot of electing a reality TV star as it's President tells you all you need to know.

The New York press ran a piece at the weekend saying that the UK has lost the right to call Americans dumb. This is true.

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 8:48 am

Markets and £ down further, despite desperate reassurances from Tories that nothing is going to change anytime soon, and that there's no need to actually start thinking about leaving the EU until the schools go back.

Where is Chris Grayling now? Where is the sense of urgency and importance in their cause from the Leavers? Where's the battle bus with that NHS promise?

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Post by Coxy001 on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:19 am

David Cameron needs to step down immediately and let Boris take over (presumptive PM who will have to go through the process of getting elected by the Tory MPs).

This may seem like an unpatriotic thing to say - but the sh*t that is going to hit the fan needs to hit the fan now. Now the Brexiteers realise that Cameron has checkmated them royally (resigning and passing the buck along for invoking article 50) the sense of impending "wtf do we do" has set in. Boris coming out saying "we don't need to leave immediately", IDS backtracks on the £350m nonsense and the reality that someone will have to press the button has appeared to have made them all sh*t themselves silly.

The funny thing is that they want to attempt to start "informal negotiations". Well, sorry but the EU leaders won't go down that route. As there is no legal requirement to invoke article 50 there is no legal basis for Boris to act like a clown and think that the EU will start informal negotiations without this article being invoked. They want formal negotiations, not "oh maybe we could just have y'know XYZ - how do you feel about that".

And the rules make it very, very clear. 2 years and that's it. At the end of those 2 years we would have our membership cancelled and if agreements aren't in place then it's tough sh*t. Boris knows we haven't got a prayer of unravelling this mess and putting it back together inside that time and is now firmly up sh*t creek without a paddle.

The Leave side are making themselves look like the complete buffoons many of us predicted.

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:27 am

I'd only just seen IDS walk away from the £350m per week pledge. Is anyone actually going to own that now?? Would one of the Leavers please stand-up and say that they will honour these promises!

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Post by Ent on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:28 am

funnyExiledScot wrote:
Ent wrote:Osbourne speech this morning.

Highlighted importance of previous repairs to economy in being able to with stand an exit. Discussions with Bank of England, g7 and other financial ministers.

Also said article 50 won't be envoked until a new pm is appointed and no budget until then.

Ah, so maybe he will stand for the leadership after all......

There was a vibe of that in his speech.

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:30 am

October (new PM) is 4 months away. That's 18 weeks. 18 x 350 million is £6,300,000,000 that could be spent on the NHS between June 2018 and October 2018 i.e. if we invoked Article 50 now, instead of October.

It was £350m a week, wasn't it?


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Post by GSC on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:30 am

Osborne's only path to ever being PM is keeping his job as Chancellor in the short to medium term. No way he'd win an election right now and the Tories know it.
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Post by SecretFly on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:35 am

funnyExiledScot wrote:Markets and £ down further, despite desperate reassurances from Tories that nothing is going to change anytime soon, and that there's no need to actually start thinking about leaving the EU until the schools go back.


Markets are down? Well why wouldn't they be looking at the reactions in the UK. All of a sudden the shock of having to contemplate being 'on-your-own' (which in this modern world is never a reality anyway) and the Eton educated elite start to panic.
Nobody wants to take up the challenge. Cameron gets out whilst the going is good, Boris says he's really a Remain sheep in Wolf's clothing, Labour want to crucify the person who perhaps best reflects the mood of their own voters, with Tom Watson waiting on the side-lines, a man more interested in the bedroom antics of the great and the good than he is in minding his own keyhole business.

Maybe with the new week starting, nerves will have calmed and someone in the UK will actually show us some of the spirit to accept and welcome the new challenges that the British people are renowned for. Stop running away and embrace. Then the markets might settle. But of course, some want them to bubble anyway.

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Post by Ent on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:35 am

GSC wrote:Osborne's only path to ever being PM is keeping his job as Chancellor in the short to medium term. No way he'd win an election right now and the Tories know it.

He'll aim to steer uk through the potential exonomic melt down.

Mind you didn't help brown.

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:39 am

JuliusHMarx wrote:October (new PM) is 4 months away. That's 18 weeks. 18 x 350 million is £6,300,000,000 that could be spent on the NHS between June 2018 and October 2018 i.e. if we invoked Article 50 now, instead of October.

It was £350m a week, wasn't it?


That's correct. You also need to factor in that massive queue of Syrian refugees from the poster that will surely now be expediting their move to the UK, to leech off our public services. Then there are all the young people who will be able to get on the house ladder (because house prices will collapse, sorry, be "corrected").

With all those obvious benefits, and an "even stevens" economic impact, I don't understand why Leave is suddenly so reluctant to do anything?? We know that there will be no hiatus in trade anyway, because the EU will want to sign a free trade agreement quickly as it is in their interests. We know this because Grayling and Farage told us repeatedly (and that negotiations would be "quick"), so surely we have nothing to fear by serving the Article 50 notice today and just get cracking with it?

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Post by GSC on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:43 am

That's because Brown decided to start proclaiming himself as the saviour days before **** really hit the fan.
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Post by Coxy001 on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:44 am

funnyExiledScot wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:October (new PM) is 4 months away. That's 18 weeks. 18 x 350 million is £6,300,000,000 that could be spent on the NHS between June 2018 and October 2018 i.e. if we invoked Article 50 now, instead of October.

It was £350m a week, wasn't it?


That's correct. You also need to factor in that massive queue of Syrian refugees from the poster that will surely now be expediting their move to the UK, to leech off our public services. Then there are all the young people who will be able to get on the house ladder (because house prices will collapse, sorry, be "corrected").

With all those obvious benefits, and an "even stevens" economic impact, I don't understand why Leave is suddenly so reluctant to do anything?? We know that there will be no hiatus in trade anyway, because the EU will want to sign a free trade agreement quickly as it is in their interests. We know this because Grayling and Farage told us repeatedly (and that negotiations would be "quick"), so surely we have nothing to fear by serving the Article 50 notice today and just get cracking with it?

It's because Grayling and Farage are lying cu*ts.

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Post by GSC on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:45 am

Also the creation of that meltdown happened under Browns watch.
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Post by funnyExiledScot on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:46 am

SecretFly wrote:
funnyExiledScot wrote:Markets and £ down further, despite desperate reassurances from Tories that nothing is going to change anytime soon, and that there's no need to actually start thinking about leaving the EU until the schools go back.


Markets are down?   Well why wouldn't they be looking at the reactions in the UK.  All of a sudden the shock of having to contemplate being 'on-your-own' (which in this modern world is never a reality anyway) and the Eton educated elite start to panic.  
Nobody wants to take up the challenge.  Cameron gets out whilst the going is good, Boris says he's really a Remain sheep in Wolf's clothing, Labour want to crucify the person who perhaps best reflects the mood of their own voters, with Tom Watson waiting on the side-lines, a man more interested in the bedroom antics of the great and the good than he is in minding his own keyhole business.

Maybe with the new week starting, nerves will have calmed and someone in the UK will actually show us some of the spirit to accept and welcome the new challenges that the British people are renowned for.  Stop running away and embrace.  Then the markets might settle.  But of course, some want them to bubble anyway.

Not anymore! Corbyn is toast, and if he isn't then I think it's safe to predict that Labour will be out of power for 10-20 years (at which point they'll just repeat the exercise in the 80s and 90s, re-modernise and start to appeal to the wider group). Still, they'll have their principles during the wilderness years, which is nice.

I do agree though that one of the Leavers now needs to step up the plate and own the mess they've created. I find the cowardice and general whiff of retreat from these people, so bullish and over-confident a mere week ago, frankly depressing. Other than a bit of triumphalism at the post-result booze up, the silence has been deafening other than to reverse Leave campaign pledges.

Perhaps the Leavers should do all their politics under the influence of alcohol. It gives them some much required Dutch (or should we now call it Sunderland) courage.

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Post by Ent on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:50 am

GSC wrote:Also the creation of that meltdown happened under Browns watch.

Thought it was a world wide financial crisis, forgot it was all Browns fault.

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:52 am

Ent wrote:
GSC wrote:Also the creation of that meltdown happened under Browns watch.

Thought it was a world wide financial crisis, forgot it was all Browns fault.

Stop talking sense.

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Post by Hero on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 9:56 am

If the Pound continues to collapse and we go into recession as expected then the claims of getting immigration down may actually come true as no fecker will want to come here.

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 10:22 am

Hero wrote:If the Pound continues to collapse and we go into recession as expected then the claims of getting immigration down may actually come true as no fecker will want to come here.

Ah, maybe that's the plan!

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Post by milkyboy on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 10:58 am

found this an interesting read on the trials of the remain campaign for anyone interested:

http://www.politico.eu/article/how-david-cameron-lost-brexit-eu-referendum-prime-minister-campaign-remain-boris-craig-oliver-jim-messina-obama/


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Post by funnyExiledScot on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 11:15 am

It is an interesting read. I'm particularly interested in the dynamics at play in the Labour Party and the evidence now coming to the fore that Corbyn and his advisors (Seumas Milne in particular) refused to campaign effectively and took deliberate action not to back Remain. What I don't understand is why? If core Labour voters genuinely are against the EU (which the votes in the North East would suggest), and Corbyn, McConnell and Milne wanted us to vote Leave, then why not just campaign for it? I don't see any "new politics" etc. in misleading the public and the party as to their true views.

We keep being told that Labour party members love Corbyn and that he speaks for them with a new politics. I think he's a shambles. His ideology is inflexible, intellectually he seems lacking and his political skills are abysmal. He was a protest vote that his party now regrets. Labour need to remove him and remove him fast. The only danger is to make it look like he's been bullied out, as his supporters will play the card (again) that this is some Westminster "elite" conspiracy against their "spokesman for the people".

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Post by Guest on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 11:17 am

I keep seeing Corbyn with a Police Escort and do think he looks like a confused old man who is wondering why the officer wants to talk to him about historical sex offences

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Post by SecretFly on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 11:33 am

funnyExiledScot wrote: The only danger is to make it look like he's been bullied out, as his supporters will play the card (again) that this is some Westminster "elite" conspiracy against their "spokesman for the people".

laughing And they'll be right.  The dumb masses will be right.  Corbyn embarrasses the elite boys.  He looks like a man that needs a wash and a shave and a soup bowl stuck under his chin and a few pennies placed in his pocket for charity.  They hate the image "Them Conservatives with the cufflinks and thousand pound shirts are laughing at us".

He's the relative from hell that the family hopes doesn't show up when the invites to the party are sent out.  It's wonderful to observe the Labour boyos scurrying around and inventing reasons for dropping him.  "He agrees with our voting dumb masses behind our backs, so it's time to get rid of him."

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Post by Ent on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 11:37 am

Labour MPs are worried about losing their jobs come election time.

Corbyn may resonate with the labour membership but not with the voters that got them 3 terms in government.

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 11:40 am

SecretFly wrote:
funnyExiledScot wrote: The only danger is to make it look like he's been bullied out, as his supporters will play the card (again) that this is some Westminster "elite" conspiracy against their "spokesman for the people".

laughing  And they'll be right.  The dumb masses will be right.  Corbyn embarrasses the elite boys.  He looks like a man that needs a wash and a shave and a soup bowl stuck under his chin and a few pennies placed in his pocket for charity.  They hate the image "Them Conservatives with the cufflinks and thousand pound shirts are laughing at us".

He's the relative from hell that the family hopes doesn't show up when the invites to the party are sent out.  It's wonderful to observe the Labour boyos scurrying around and inventing reasons for dropping him.  "He agrees with our voting dumb masses behind our backs, so it's time to get rid of him."

I don't think they need to invent anything. Labour's record since he became leader has been dire, and shows no signs of improving. There will likely be a General Election this year, and the party does not want to be wiped out.

I'm also not sure who you think Corbyn is embarrassing? The "elite boys" are the ones who paid £3 to join the Labour Party and vote him in. Whilst Corbyn is leader we are guaranteed a Tory government, and for our Prime Minister whoever it happens to be the Tories decide should lead them (Johnson or May almost inevitably). The joke is very much on Corbyn and those who elected him. His election was the greatest act of political self-harm I've could recall until last Thursday.

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Post by SecretFly on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 11:53 am

funnyExiledScot wrote:

I'm also not sure who you think Corbyn is embarrassing? The "elite boys" are the ones who paid £3 to join the Labour Party and vote him in. Whilst Corbyn is leader we are guaranteed a Tory government, and for our Prime Minister whoever it happens to be the Tories decide should lead them (Johnson or May almost inevitably). The joke is very much on Corbyn and those who elected him. His election was the greatest act of political self-harm I've could recall until last Thursday.

You still don't get my point. Labour (the 'elite' side of it) wants to be Conservative. But they still don't want to vote Conservative because it's a football game.

I like observing that kind of stuff. You keep talking about getting 'elected' and yet Labour stood side by side with the Conservatives in campaigning for Remain. The only Labour man that seemed to be ideologically in tune with the people that voted Leave (we're being told the vast majority were from Labour heartlands/persuasions etc) and therefore ideologically opposite to the Conservatives, was Mr Leader Corbyn.

So what is the point in always talking about getting Labour 'elected'? Let the Labour voters who want Conservative values simply vote Conservative...and get them. Let New Labour MPs become Conservatives. The differences between New Labour and Conservative are minute. But that's still the 'alternative' to Conservatives that is being championed by those Labour people embarrassed by crumpled-jacket Corby?

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Post by milkyboy on Mon 27 Jun 2016, 11:53 am

Exile, re corbyn and brexit. I think the guardian readership, labour intellectuals wanted remain but the working class historical core labour voter's turned to brexit... split loyalties within the party and within the voters... confused and ineffectual leadership from a stubborn man. It's a bizarre state of affairs when you have the government voluntarily putting brexit to a public vote and  then requiring party politics to be put on hold... you can see why an unholy alliance sits uncomfortably for some.

Forgive me for the GCSE grade politics lesson, but I've been reflecting on what I consider the ironies of brexit.

Holding a referendum is a controversial tool in UK politics, the government can pick and choose. It goes against the grain of how our political system works, where we elect representatives to take decisions for us, rather than delegates doing what we tell them. With the first past the post electoral system we end up with a government that most people didn't vote for making their own decisions about what we do.  On the face of it, a referendum on a key issue seems far more democratic, but here's the rub...  when you actually let the man in the street make a decision he's not 'qualified' to make it reminds you how high risk it is. We just let the great british public vote for membership of something, that most don't really understand, with many seemingly voting on little snippets of information they've been fed by their daily rag or heard down the pub. When I say 'we let', I mean Cameron let. And why? Because he wanted to strengthen his position in the tory party and the party's chances for the next election... and see off the threat of UKIP. Not because he felt it had been 40 years since the last one, and we were due it. A more charitable perspective would be to say, that UKIP's arrival on the scene made immigration such a hot potato he wanted to cool it down while he still could.

Who knows whether britain, if it still exists as britain, will end up in a better place in 5 or 10 years time, it's hard to predict, and we may never know for sure, because much of that depends on what we may have just triggered in the world order. I have my views on that, but they're just views. Short to mid-term economic woes though, were pretty much a nailed on certainty.  On the one hand it's a victory for democracy, but the biggest irony to me in all of this is that the most dissatisfied groups in society tipped this vote for leave, and they were the ones with the most to lose.  Sending us into recession isn't helping the pensioners with their pension pots and savings accounts, and the disillusioned working class communities who aren't happy with immigrants taking their jobs and benefits are going to wish there were more jobs to compete for and less austerity measures coming their way.

The public wanted to give one in the eye to the establishment. But the establishment will take their licks, and the politicians they hate will be replaced by more politicians they hate. Cameron gambled on the future of the country he loves by calling a referendum. In both cases you could argue, the turkeys voted for christmas.

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