Raonic's YE Ranking?

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Raonic's YE Ranking?

Post by Born Slippy on Mon 11 Jul 2016, 8:38 pm

After his Wimbledon run, Raonic has leapt up to 3rd in the race. He's 3,400 points behind Murray, so is unlikely to move higher but could he hang on to YE3? As it stands he has a 900 point cushion:

3. Raonic 3835
4. Nadal 2930
5. Nishikori 2905
6. Thiem 2835
7. Wawrinka 2370
8. Berdych 2260
9. Federer 2130

Barring injury, I think he's got a decent shot. It's hard to see him losing early, so I'd guess he will get to at least 5,500 points. If we assume Novak hoovers up a lot of the big points, then that's a long way away for the others. Rafa could get there but realistically he might struggle when he does come back on the hard courts. Fed would need a great run.

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Re: Raonic's YE Ranking?

Post by Henman Bill on Mon 11 Jul 2016, 8:43 pm

Here's a question - which of the players listed 3-9 will be highest this time next year, or end of 2017? Now that's a tough one. I think Thiem could be doing well by end 2017.

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Re: Raonic's YE Ranking?

Post by Guest on Mon 11 Jul 2016, 8:44 pm

depressing for tennis, if raonic is no.3 in the world. just so bland. hope del potro can return back to the big time, once he finds fully match sharpness & that Thiem can take the next step

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Re: Raonic's YE Ranking?

Post by Mad for Chelsea on Mon 11 Jul 2016, 10:34 pm

Yeah, I see Raonic holding onto n°3, unless one of the others wins the US Open. Raonic's serve makes it unlikely for him to lose before the QFs of the big events, and with the odd SF thrown in there too that should be enough.

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Re: Raonic's YE Ranking?

Post by Henman Bill on Mon 11 Jul 2016, 11:04 pm

Raonic hasn't so far shown a consistent ability to get to QFs. He has never got to the QF at the US Open.

I think Raonic is going to be a real threat indoors, but the slams are a bit too slow for him for him to be getting to QF at all of them consistently.

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Re: Raonic's YE Ranking?

Post by dummy_half on Mon 11 Jul 2016, 11:54 pm

For comparison, Djoko has just over 8000 point and Andy 7200 -(and Andy's ranking points went over 10K for the first time in his career) - they're out of sight for the top 2 spots.

Raonic is 3rd in the race but only 7th in the rankings - shows he's improved (relative to the field) in 2016. Looks difficult to catch for that 3rd by y/e, as he's likely to keep accumulating decent points and none of those below him look to be in the sort of form to challenge the Djokurray duopoly of the big prizes.

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Re: Raonic's YE Ranking?

Post by Born Slippy on Tue 12 Jul 2016, 1:08 am

Henman Bill wrote:Raonic hasn't so far shown a consistent ability to get to QFs. He has never got to the QF at the US Open.

I think Raonic is going to be a real threat indoors, but the slams are a bit too slow for him for him to be getting to QF at all of them consistently.
I think the US record is a little false. He lost to F Lopez last year but I don't think he was fully fit. His previous three defeats were:

Nishikori - 5 sets; 82% first serve points won; 35 aces (Kei made the final)
Gasquet - 5 sets; 76% first serve points won; 39 aces (Gasquet made the SF - beating Ferrer)
Murray - 3 sets; 70% first serve points won; 14 aces (Murray champion)

None of those defeats shout out "courts are too slow" to me. He was less than 60% first serves in both the Gasquet and Kei matches. His normal 65% type serving level would have probably seen him through. 

This year, he's certain to be seeded top 8 and could possibly be seeded top 4 (particularly if Rafa doesn't recover). I'd be amazed if he loses before R4 and he will be strong favourite to go further (albeit the 9-12 bracket currently looks pretty competitive).

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Re: Raonic's YE Ranking?

Post by lydian on Tue 12 Jul 2016, 2:50 pm

Agree, when you serve near 140 average 1st serve it doesn't matter how slow the courts get...you can hit through all of them.

At least he's trying to become a S&V type player so it throws a new style into the mix...otherwise he is deadly boring to be honest.
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Re: Raonic's YE Ranking?

Post by Guest82 on Tue 12 Jul 2016, 3:34 pm

I called that back here... http://www.606v2.com/t63436-who-will-qualify-for-the-o2

I think he will be y/e no 3. I think he's been the third best player this year and the courts tend to get faster, which will help him.

Next year - only he, Thiem and perhaps Nishikori are improving. Nadal, Wawrinka, Berdych and Federer all appear to be on a downward spiral. Although either Nadal or Federer could still find a level which makes them 2 or 3 in the world.

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Re: Raonic's YE Ranking?

Post by Born Slippy on Tue 12 Jul 2016, 4:09 pm

Goffin?

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Re: Raonic's YE Ranking?

Post by lydian on Tue 12 Jul 2016, 5:05 pm

1. Novak Djokovic
2. Andy Murray
3. Milos Raonic
4. Roger Federer
5. Kei Nishikori
6. Rafael Nadal  
7. Dominic Thiem
8. David Goffin
9. Stan Wawrinka
10. Tomas Berdych

Is my order for going into London...I just don't think Stan has the fire anymore...and Berdy had a good run @ Wimb but it doesn't turn his career around. Expect Fed to do much better in HC & indoor season, and Goffin usually finishes the year strongly and is good on HC/indoors. His main issue is belief vs. the big guys but he's making strides all the time.

Obviously a lot depends on Nadal's comeback too...but he already has a lot of points so doesn't need many to scrape in. I think Novak will regroup and stay as #1 throughout...its his strongest surface coming up...HC all the way.
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Re: Raonic's YE Ranking?

Post by Guest82 on Tue 12 Jul 2016, 5:28 pm

Some discussion elsewhere as to Murray challenging for No 1. I think the lead in the race is around 800 points, so close enough.

Think Djokovic will retain it myself, but it's at least up for discussion.

Berdych is only 8th in the race including his Wimbledon points, also Federer is below him and has been injured. Pretty sure Federer will perform better than Berdych for the remainder of the season. Rafa doesn't need a great lot of points, but obviously his return date and level could be questionable.

Think the final spot is up for grabs - Wawrinka v Goffin probably. Perhaps Kyrgios, Tsonga, Monfils or Zverev could make a run.

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