US Open draw

Think it is at 3.30pm (UK time) this afternoon.

I am guessing Stan is the preferred semi final?

Thiem the preferred quarter final?

Del Potro the most dangerous floater?

Sure that none of the top guys will want to get Delpo in the early rounds.

Wow!! Grinning Greg, makes a good point for a change (see his discussion of Lendl of this http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/37194215)

Murray plays Rosol in first round.

Potential US Open men's 1/4s Djokovic v Cilic, Nadal v Raonic, Thiem v Wawrinka, Nishikori v Murray. Means Djoko's got arguably tougher half, with either Rafa or Raonic to overcome as well as former winner Cilic.
Del Potty is in Murray's half. Kyle Edmund has got Gasquet in first round.

First glance is Rafa has a gift of a draw. Be amazed if we don't see him in the quarter finals.

Murray has a tough first round, if Rosol is 'on'.

Djokovic has the tougher quarter/semi though.

I think Murray is winning this.

Thanks sifredperry for the overview.

Nadal - anything could happen, retires with injury in first round, wins title, anything really! But about QF or so is probably around expectation.

The only thing I can't see him do is beating Djokovic and Murray back to back if they are both fully fit.

Well done to Laura Robson in safely navigating through three rounds of qualification to reach the main draw at the US Open.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/37192966

Yes, good to see Robson in main draw. She seems to have realised that she needed to go down a level and get some wins (which she did in winning a minor tournament last week) if she was going to get confident/fit enough to compete at the higher level.

So the routes for the main contenders are:

Djokovic


R1 - Janowicz
R2 - Vesely
R3 - Klizan
R4 - Gasquet/Isner
QF - Cilic/Tsonga
SF - Nadal/Raonic
F - Murray

Murray


R1 - Rosol
R2 - Monaco
R3 - Simon
R4 - Lopez/Dimitrov
QF - Nishikori
SF - Wawrinka
F - Djokovic

Wawrinka


R1 - Verdasco
R2 - Kudla
R3 - Zverev
R4 - Kyrgios 
QF - Thiem/Del Potro
SF - Murray
F - Djokovic

Nadal


R1 - Istomin
R2 - Robert
R3 - Ramos
R4 - Bautista-Agut
QF - Raonic
SF - Djokovic
F - Murray

Looking at each in turn:

Novak - a tough draw. Janowicz has a lot of weapons for R1 albeit he hasn't yet done much after returning from injury. Vesely has beaten him this year and Klizan is a tricky leftie. Cilic and Nadal are the hardest options he could have got in the QF/SF. Draw difficulty - 8/10

Andy - looks a kinder draw. Rosol again has weapons but the only other potential major stumbling block before the QF could be Dimitrov. He has owned Nishikori recently and Stan's form recently is questionable. Draw difficulty - 5/10

Stan - looks a bit of a stinker. Verdasco is tough in R1 (see Oz Open!) and he then has probably the most dangerous R3/R4 opponents in Zverev and Kyrgios. To cap that off, he could well face Del Potro in the QF. Draw difficulty - 9/10

Rafa - looks like a draw from heaven. He's avoided any early big hitters and none of his first four projected opponents have ever beaten him. He also has a 6-1 h2h against Raonic. Draw difficulty - 2/10

Del Potro also has a good draw for a non-seed:

R1 - Schwartzman 
R2 - Johnson 
R3 - Ferrer
R4 - Thiem
QF - Wawrinka

Johnson is in-form but I'd back Del Potro to beat him. The other seeds are all out of form. I think DP will make the SF.

Fair play to Laura. You've got admire her resolve and it shows she's mentally tough enough to be our best female Brit since Joe Durie

Robson has Naomi Broady in R1 so good chance for a win. Radwanska in R2 will be tricky though.

I'm not sure I see her having the potential to be better than Konta though Banbro, who has comfortably established herself now as "best Brit since Durie". She could easily be top 10 by the end of the year.

Aside from Wimbledon (what with wildcards) I wonder when the last time was that eight British players qualified for a slam? I am struggling to remember such a strong British contingent.

Djokovic may be a slightly tough draw but you still expect him to progress. Any draw he could have gotten would still have been easier for him to win the tournament than a few years ago when Federer and Nadal were closer to their best.

Nadal I don't see anyone who can beat him there in the early rounds. I think he will get to the quarter final.

Good news on Laura Robson.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Aside from Wimbledon (what with wildcards) I wonder when the last time was that eight British players qualified for a slam? I am struggling to remember such a strong British contingent.

Not sure about the other slams though I think the US Open would be the most recent anyway, and that was in 1985, according to @GBtennis.

https://twitter.com/GBtennis/status/769505345551077376
This is the 1st US Open since 1985 with 8 Brits in the singles main draws. Then: Gomer, Brown, Croft, Hobbs, Durie, Lloyd, Bates, Dowdeswell

I don't think I'd call that such a strong British contingent in any sense other than numerically.

Well my initial 'strength' comment was numerically but when you think about it (in British tennis parlance) it is strong strength-wise. I mean on the men's side there is one multiple slam winner and perhaps tournament favourite and on the women's side there is Jo Konta who is knocking on the door of the top ten so syrength-wise it is stronger than that 1985 representation.

ListenUp wrote:
I don't think I'd call that such a strong British contingent in any sense other than numerically.

In case it wasn't clear, I was referring to the 1985 contingent.

I think it just shows how much depth in the tennis ranks there is now compared with 1985. Andy of course is a class apart, but I wouldn't put Sara Gomer and Amanda Brown, for example, in the same class as Heather Watson and Naomi Broady, or compare Colin Dowdeswell with Aljaz Bedene (Dowdeswell was also an import   ).

Also, the 2016 Brits are all young enough to have the potential for further improvement.

ListenUp wrote:

ListenUp wrote:
I don't think I'd call that such a strong British contingent in any sense other than numerically.

In case it wasn't clear, I was referring to the 1985 contingent.

I think it just shows how much depth in the tennis ranks there is now compared with 1985. Andy of course is a class apart, but I wouldn't put Sara Gomer and Amanda Brown, for example, in the same class as Heather Watson and Naomi Broady, or compare Colin Dowdeswell with Aljaz Bedene (Dowdeswell was also an import   ).

Also, the 2016 Brits are all young enough to have the potential for further improvement.

Agreed.

My take:

Novak with the hardest draw among top 4, Rafa with the easiest. Between Stan and Andy, I would probably choose Andy's as a a little easier, but not by much.

Novak the favorite, unless he is having some injury issues that are more serious than we currently know. Murray relatively close second, and then long after that a bunch of other guys (Raonic, Rafa, Stan, etc).

I do not rate Delpo's chances. I think Olympics was a one-off - partly because BO3 is probably easier for him now, but also it happened to have worked out just right for him. I expect he will go out relatively early.

Forgive the rant but how on earth is Konta British? Wouldn't normally bring this type of thing up but she was born and raised in Australia and didn't even move to the UK until she was 14 !

Whatever about being born somewhere and moving when you are three or four but surely Konta is more Australian than British. In fact she has spent well over half her live living in Australia. Obviously her choice but I think it is a bit much.

I have to admit if I was lucky enough to be playing sport professionally there is no way I would represent another country from one which I grew up in.

Just my own opinion though.

Anyway bring on the US Open and hopefully Novak can make a return to form. Murray looking good though.

Edmund overpowering Gasquet so far. Gasquet being quite passive and hasn't coped with Edmund's forehand at all. I'd expect the match to change around - Kyle doesn't have the best record at closing out matches.