Pro12 predictions 2016/17

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Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by profitius on Tue 30 Aug 2016, 10:45 am

This is going to be the toughest to call yet. There are so many questions that it's very hard to tell who will finish where. Some teams might have done good business in the transfer market but that doesn't always translate to success.


1. Leinster. They finished top last season and had Graham Henry helping out over the summer. They've a strong squad with new players who are highly rated, like Joey Carbery.
2. Glasgow. They've been the most consistent side for a few years now. They've lost their title winning Fijians but once they get momentum they are very hard to stop.
3. Ulster. They've an abundance of back talent available. Piutau being the latest signing. The pack could be their undoing and despite the talent I'm not sure the coaches can get the most out of the talent they have. I expect them to put up some big scores.
4. Connacht. Wouldn't surprise me to see them topping the league again. Reason I have them in 4th is because they lost a few quality players and sometimes teams who win a tournament find it hard to win 2 in a row. They play a great brand of rugby si I expect them to be there about at the business end if the season again. And they win the league with many young fellas who will be a year more experienced.

5. Scarlets. They've made some good signings and play a good brand of rugby. They seem to have had a big clear out of the squad though which might weaken them when there are injuries.
6. Munster. New coaches coming in who are highly thought of. Munster also have strengthened areas of the squad like second row. I think they'll be much better this season than last season.

7. Ospreys. It's unusual to have them so far down but it's where they finished last season and I'm not sure if much has changed. Their fans will certainly be expecting better than 7th!
8. Cardiff Blues. There's a bit of buzz around the Blues with their new signings. Still, they're always saying this will be their year but they're like a team in limbo.
9. Edinburgh. They're talking about finishing in the top 4 which shows their ambition. I think I might be underrating them because I don't know too much about their signings and they're tough to beat especially at home. As I said earlier, it's tough to predict this season.
10. Treviso. I'm expecting them to be the most improved side. They've new back line talent, new coach, new fitness coaches in etc. I think this year we'll see the Italians more competitive, especially Treviso.
11. Zebra. I'd say they'll be slightly more competitive this season but passed out by Treviso and not good enough to rise further up the table.
12. Dragons. They seem to be gradually sinking down the table year on year and this could be the season they hit bottom.


http://www.606v2.com/t60350-pro-12-predictions


Last edited by profitius on Thu 01 Sep 2016, 11:32 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by LordDowlais on Tue 30 Aug 2016, 11:07 am

This is how I see it finishing next season, with only the top two positions I see as a certainty, the others could switch positions:-

1. Ulster
2. Leinster
3. Scarlets
4. Ospreys
5. Glasgow
6. Cardiff Blues
7. Munster
8. Connacht
9. Edinburgh
10. Dragons
11. Treviso
12. Zebre

If anything Glasgow could be higher, but the top 6th to 3rd places will all be the same teams, they have all recruited well, there is no world cup this year so Connacht will not have the head start they had last year. Munster have not signed anybody of note, and they struggled last year, whilst most other teams have made some astute signings for the up and coming season. Also Glasgow losing Leone Nakarawa is a missive loss to them.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Senlac on Tue 30 Aug 2016, 12:13 pm

Reckon having both Scarlets and Ospreys in the top 4 is wishful thinking.

Also severely underrating Connacht I feel. Remember, Scarlets were the real beneficiaries of the World Cup "head start", topping the table for a long period, and fell away badly after the internationals returned. Connacht didn't.

I expect the top 4 to be 3 Irish teams + Glasgow, with Munster being the Irish team to miss out. What order the top 4 will end up in is anybody's guess, but I wouldn't bet against Ulster or Leinster.

Also Glasgow are not a one man team and while the loss of Nakarawa is disappointing, we have been losing top players every year without it denting us too badly - think Niko, DTH etc.

Can't see past a repeat of last year's top 4 in some order or another.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by international198 on Tue 30 Aug 2016, 12:47 pm

1. Scarlets (champions)
2. Ospreys
3. Cardiff Blues
4. Dragons
_________________________________________

5. Leinster
6. Connacht
_________________________________________

7. Ulster
8. Munster
9. Glasgow
10. Edinburgh
11. Treviso
12. Zebre

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Pot Hale on Wed 31 Aug 2016, 12:34 am

international198 wrote:1. Scarlets (champions)
2. Ospreys
3. Cardiff Blues
4. Dragons
_________________________________________

5. Leinster
6. Connacht
_________________________________________

7. Ulster
8. Munster
9. Glasgow
10. Edinburgh
11. Treviso
12. Zebre

That looks good to me. Although I think Zebre will pip Treviso for the Euro spot.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by cakeordeath on Wed 31 Aug 2016, 8:36 am

international198 wrote:1. Scarlets (champions)
2. Ospreys
3. Cardiff Blues
4. Dragons
_________________________________________

5. Leinster
6. Connacht
_________________________________________

7. Ulster
8. Munster
9. Glasgow
10. Edinburgh
11. Treviso
12. Zebre

Seems fair. Given player fatigue is an issue, I say let's just cancel the season and jump straight to the play-offs with the Welsh teams.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by LordDowlais on Wed 31 Aug 2016, 9:16 am

FFS. This could be a good debate. Lets not drag another thread down to bickering levels. We can all re-visit this thread at the end of the season and all see how twp or clyfar we all were.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Kingshu on Fri 02 Sep 2016, 1:36 pm

To win grand final

Leinster 2/1 = 33%
Glasgow 11/4 = 26%
Ulster 9/2 = 18%
Scarlets 7/1 = 12.5%
Munster 8/1 = 11%
Connacht 12/1 = 7.6%
Ospreys 16/1 = 5.8%
Cardiff blues 50/1 = 2%
Edinburgh 66/1 = 1.5%
Dragons 150/1 = 0.66%
Treviso 500/1 = 0.2%
Zebre 500/1 = 0.2%

Using the estimates total 110%

Looks like prediction of Leinster Glasgow, Ulster, Scarlets and Munster fighting for a top four place.
Connacht, Ospreys maybe in the mix for top four and getting European places.
Cardiff Blues and Edinburgh mid table and fighting for European places.
Dragons fighting to join top 10
Travis and zebra fighting to avoid bottom

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Kingshu on Fri 02 Sep 2016, 2:19 pm

However bookies and weights of money are not how I see it going

I think that we will see the table break into groups, like we did last year of
4, 2, 3, 3

This year I see it as
2 Ulster, Leinster
5 Connacht, Munster Scarlets Glasgow Ospreys
2 Blues Edinburgh
3 Treviso Zebre Dragons.

its actually very difficult to predict, I do think Ulster and Leinster will make the top 4, (maybe not even top 2) any of the other 5 could make the top 4 with them. Blues could even make top 6. I don't think Edinburgh will.

Ulster 1-4
Leinster 1-4
Connacht 3-6
Munster 2-6
Scarlets 3-8
Glasgow 2-8
Osprey3-8
blues 5-9
Edinburgh 7-11
Treviso 9-12
Zebre 9-12
Dragons 10-12

Lot of movement in that, lot of teams with hopes of impoving and not all of them can, theres going to be some team in 6-9 that aren't happy with thier season.

I actually agree with the original poster that this season could be the one Dragons hit rock bottom.
I actually think that with everyone available the Italians may have the better squads.
The Italians teams lost a lot more international players durning the season than Dragons did, yet there were only 2 and 6 points between them last year. The Italians I believe have recruited better and could prove a bit of a shock and without the World cup will have their squad together for more of the season.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by RiscaGame on Fri 02 Sep 2016, 7:25 pm

I am more optimistic as a dragons fan. Last season was a write off, as we had an idiot in charge and kicked everything away. This season we are already showing more intent. I can't see us finishing bottom. 9th or 10th for me

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Kingshu on Fri 02 Sep 2016, 9:05 pm

Just to be clear even though I have said on another page that I think Dragons may end up bottom and Ulster should be aiming for a BP win, I am not a Dragon hater, before anyone thinks I am.

I actually really like them, and respect them they are a tough team esp at home.
I think their fans are great, very few teams would struggle around the bottom for a few years, and still bring in an average of 6000 fans.

Thats shows the team has solid support, and the reason I think they are somewhat of a sleeping giant. What other team can get this support in the bad times, and imagine what it would be like in the good times.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by mikey_dragon on Fri 02 Sep 2016, 10:26 pm

Senlac wrote:Reckon having both Scarlets and Ospreys in the top 4 is wishful thinking.

Also severely underrating Connacht I feel.  Remember, Scarlets were the real beneficiaries of the World Cup "head start", topping the table for a long period, and fell away badly after the internationals returned.  Connacht didn't.

.

Agree although Ospreys are going to do better this season IMO. I couldn't agree more with your second paragraph. I got attacked as did my team for saying the exact same thing pretty much. Even more kudos to Connacht now that I'm reminded of it.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by True Raven on Fri 02 Sep 2016, 10:31 pm

Only one Welsh team in the playoffs but both Blues and Ospreys to grab top six.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by George Carlin on Sun 04 Sep 2016, 8:01 pm

I suppose that I have the benefit of having seen the first round of matches before making this prediction.

I think that my top 4 for this season will be:

01 Leinster
02 Ulster
03 Glasgow
04 Scarlets

with the chasing pack quite tightly bunched:
05 Connacht
06 Ospreys
07 Blues
08 Munster

followed by:
09 Edinburgh
10 Treviso
11 Dragons
12 Zebre

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by mikey_dragon on Sun 04 Sep 2016, 9:44 pm

Surely it's Ospreys and Blues pushing for top 4, not Scarlets? Scarlets have one of the best teams on paper but they're bloody crap - I usually switch off half way through being as they're that frustrating to watch.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Notch on Sun 04 Sep 2016, 10:52 pm

mikey_dragon wrote:Surely it's Ospreys and Blues pushing for top 4, not Scarlets? Scarlets have one of the best teams on paper but they're bloody crap - I usually switch off half way through being as they're that frustrating to watch.

All foreplay but no penetration is a little bit frustrating for anyone.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by mikey_dragon on Sun 04 Sep 2016, 11:25 pm

That's one way of putting it - would wet conditions have helped?

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Notch on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 12:07 am

mikey_dragon wrote:That's one way of putting it - would wet conditions have helped?

Don't think so, Munster would be much more adept at handling wet balls than the Scarlets.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Pot Hale on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 2:12 am

I wonder how much different the current table after week 1 will be from end of the season?

I think I'm going to use a slightly unorthodox method to guess the final placings for end of season.

Squad size and depth will play a part no doubt in getting through the test windows and various comps. Here are the senior squad numbers in order:

Ospreys - 50
Ulster - 50
Dragons - 48
Scarlets - 47
Glasgow - 46
Connacht - 43
Leinster - 42
Treviso - 42
Munster - 41
Edinburgh - 42
Cardiff - 39
Zebre - 38

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by George Carlin on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 5:55 am

Notch wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:That's one way of putting it - would wet conditions have helped?

Don't think so, Munster would be much more adept at handling wet balls than the Scarlets.
I've heard that hands in the ruck is a common problem.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Pot Hale on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 6:06 am



Jaysis, I knew things were bad down Munster way, but they're now using one-legged players..

Sad times.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Notch on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 8:28 am

Pot Hale wrote:

Jaysis, I knew things were bad down Munster way, but they're now using one-legged players..

Sad times.

The latest beneficiary of Nucifora's genius plan to make sure Irish players get game time regardless of their potential as players or the number of legs they have.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Notch on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 8:30 am

George Carlin wrote:
Notch wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:That's one way of putting it - would wet conditions have helped?

Don't think so, Munster would be much more adept at handling wet balls than the Scarlets.
I've heard that hands in the ruck is a common problem.

Well you know if they put their hands in there it will just make the Munster boys ruck harder and faster.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by the-goon on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 11:44 am

Pot Hale wrote:

Jaysis, I knew things were bad down Munster way, but they're now using one-legged players..

Sad times.

Actually Pot, the bottom of his leg is hidden behind the top half as it's directly behind in relation to the camera.

You're welcome

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by brennomac on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 12:00 pm

George Carlin wrote:I suppose that I have the benefit of having seen the first round of matches before making this prediction.

I think that my top 4 for this season will be:

01 Leinster
02 Ulster
03 Glasgow
04 Scarlets

with the chasing pack quite tightly bunched:
05 Connacht
06 Ospreys
07 Blues
08 Munster

followed by:
09 Edinburgh
10 Treviso
11 Dragons
12 Zebre
George if you'd seen Leinster v Treviso on Friday night don't think you'd have them as top of the league - couldn't even get a bp off the worst or second-worst team in the league even after getting a try after 3 mins.  Afraid to say it's same old same old  from Leinster - trundle into contact usually behind the gain line, recycle very very slowly and give opposition defence all the time in the world to regroup.  OK, Leinster were short of lots of players but at best the senior internationals are going to play no more than 7-8 games in the league.  I'd be very happy with a top four finish but am not even banking on that.

Glasgow by far the pick of the teams at the weekend but as a near all-international team are they going to be hit by international call-ups, Connacht are going to have to bounce back quickly but think they'll be like Leicester City this season - falling back to 5th or 6th - and hopefully nailing ERCC qualification, Munster also likely mid-table.  Didn't see any others at the weekend but Ulster should be top 4 given the back line they have.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by wayne on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 12:49 pm

Pot Hale wrote:I wonder how much different the current table after week 1 will be from end of the season?

I think I'm going to use a slightly unorthodox method to guess the final placings for end of season.  

Squad size and depth will play a part no doubt in getting through the test windows and various comps.  Here are the senior squad numbers in order:

Ospreys - 50
Ulster - 50
Dragons - 48
Scarlets - 47
Glasgow - 46
Connacht - 43
Leinster - 42
Treviso - 42
Munster - 41
Edinburgh - 42
Cardiff - 39
Zebre - 38
 PH, where did you get the 50 for us (Ospreys) because with the website and last weekends matchday programme we have 42, and from the latter you can delete Ryan Bevington who has left, and from the website you will soon be able to delete McCusker who is only on a short term contract, added to which Fonotia hasn't joined us yet.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Pot Hale on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 2:45 pm

wayne wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:I wonder how much different the current table after week 1 will be from end of the season?

I think I'm going to use a slightly unorthodox method to guess the final placings for end of season.  

Squad size and depth will play a part no doubt in getting through the test windows and various comps.  Here are the senior squad numbers in order:

Ospreys - 50
Ulster - 50
Dragons - 48
Scarlets - 47
Glasgow - 46
Connacht - 43
Leinster - 42
Treviso - 42
Munster - 41
Edinburgh - 42
Cardiff - 39
Zebre - 38
 PH, where did you get the 50 for us (Ospreys) because with the website and last weekends matchday programme we have 42, and from the latter you can delete Ryan Bevington who has left, and from the website you will soon be able to delete McCusker who is only on a short term contract, added to which Fonotia hasn't joined us yet.

It was Wonderful Wikipedia - Wayne. Not the most accurate of sources....

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by wayne on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 5:02 pm

Pot Hale wrote:
wayne wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:I wonder how much different the current table after week 1 will be from end of the season?

I think I'm going to use a slightly unorthodox method to guess the final placings for end of season.  

Squad size and depth will play a part no doubt in getting through the test windows and various comps.  Here are the senior squad numbers in order:

Ospreys - 50
Ulster - 50
Dragons - 48
Scarlets - 47
Glasgow - 46
Connacht - 43
Leinster - 42
Treviso - 42
Munster - 41
Edinburgh - 42
Cardiff - 39
Zebre - 38
 PH, where did you get the 50 for us (Ospreys) because with the website and last weekends matchday programme we have 42, and from the latter you can delete Ryan Bevington who has left, and from the website you will soon be able to delete McCusker who is only on a short term contract, added to which Fonotia hasn't joined us yet.

It was Wonderful Wikipedia - Wayne.  Not the most accurate of sources....
PH, I've just come from the dentist after having a tooth out, I'll put our list up later, some of the names on Wiki could be development or play regularly for our feeder clubs.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Don Alfonso on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 5:31 pm

Yeah - Ulster have 49 players listed on their website, of winch only 37 are fully contracted, and 12 are on development contracts. The "senior" squad includes eight young bucks without a senior cap yet (obviously ignoring players who have had a career elsewhere like Ah You and Coetzee), and six more players with less than eight caps (again ignoring players like Piutau).

For a team with seemingly the best depth in the league, it's striking that we had two debutant academy (not development) players playing on Friday, one of whom started in the front row. That's before the attrition begins.

It's all semantics, but a just less than a quarter of the players are basically on probation to see if they're any good.

http://www.irishrugby.ie/mobile/news/37680.php


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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by wayne on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 7:04 pm

wayne wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:
wayne wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:I wonder how much different the current table after week 1 will be from end of the season?

I think I'm going to use a slightly unorthodox method to guess the final placings for end of season.  

Squad size and depth will play a part no doubt in getting through the test windows and various comps.  Here are the senior squad numbers in order:

Ospreys - 50
Ulster - 50
Dragons - 48
Scarlets - 47
Glasgow - 46
Connacht - 43
Leinster - 42
Treviso - 42
Munster - 41
Edinburgh - 42
Cardiff - 39
Zebre - 38
 PH, where did you get the 50 for us (Ospreys) because with the website and last weekends matchday programme we have 42, and from the latter you can delete Ryan Bevington who has left, and from the website you will soon be able to delete McCusker who is only on a short term contract, added to which Fonotia hasn't joined us yet.

It was Wonderful Wikipedia - Wayne.  Not the most accurate of sources....
PH, I've just come from the dentist after having a tooth out, I'll put our list up later, some of the names on Wiki could be development or play regularly for our feeder clubs.
PH, just had a look at the list on Wiki, and as I thought there are 50 names there, with 7 written in red with a small d indicating they are on development contracts, there is also Keelan Giles written in red without the d, none of those players are in the programme or the website squad and as I said Ryan Bevington has also left, so you can adjust our figure to 41 at the moment, and should be 40 soon when McCusker leaves.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by wayne on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 7:44 pm

In reply to the OP, without giving an opinion on where we will finish, I expect a significant improvement on the low point of last year, and if we don't qualify for the play offs I will be bitterly disappointed, the reasons for my optimism, are down to a number of factors 1) 2 very influential members of our squad Rhys Webb and AWJ will probably double or close to, the appearances for last season (injuries permitting). 2) Last Friday 3 players started that hardly played a game last season each would have been IMO first choice, Hassler, Beck and Ardron, missing those 3 led to the introduction of some exciting young players, but there were a number of games we would have closed out with them 3 available. 3) The signing of Fonotia and BBBD will ease the strain on the likes of AWJ and our very promising 2nd rows, and also on the likes of Beck, Matavesi, Watkin and John in the centre.
I've said it in the past and will again, we really could do with another back 3 cover with the emphasis on full back, but injuries permitting I believe we will be back to where we rightly belong.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by bsando on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 8:04 pm

Kinda cheating because I know the rd 1 results, but here you go


Ulster
Munster
Glasgow
Ospreys
Leinster
Blues
Scarlets
Connacht
Edinburgh
Dragons
Treviso
Zebre

Ulster will do very well this season, I think they have the squad to finish top.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by profitius on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 8:10 pm

wayne wrote:In reply to the OP, without giving an opinion on where we will finish, I expect a significant improvement on the low point of last year, and if we don't qualify for the play offs I will be bitterly disappointed, the reasons for my optimism, are down to a number of factors 1) 2 very influential members of our squad Rhys Webb and AWJ will probably double or close to, the appearances for last season (injuries permitting). 2) Last Friday 3 players started that hardly played a game last season each would have been IMO first choice, Hassler, Beck and Ardron, missing those 3 led to the introduction of some exciting young players, but there were a number of games we would have closed out with them 3 available. 3) The signing of Fonotia and BBBD will ease the strain on the likes of AWJ and our very promising 2nd rows, and also on the likes of Beck, Matavesi, Watkin and John in the centre.
I've said it in the past and will again, we really could do with another back 3 cover with the emphasis on full back, but injuries permitting I believe we will be back to where we rightly belong.


Some good points on the Ospreys there, Wayne. I didn't hear much about them over the summer, only complaints about the coaches so not too familiar. They're certainly capable on paper of being thereabouts come the end of the season.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Notch on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 8:14 pm

Glasgow
Ulster
Leinster
Ospreys
Munster
Scarlets
Connacht
Blues
Dragons
Edinburgh
Treviso
Zebre

Final; Glasgow vs Ulster
Winner; Heart says Ulster, Head says Glasgow

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Notch on Mon 05 Sep 2016, 8:18 pm

Agree with Wayne in that I'll be surprised if Ospreys don't make the playoffs.

Rhys Webb/Dan Biggar is arguably the best halfback partnership in the league. Pienaar and Jackson is also really good but unlike Ulster they have quality back-ups too. I'm a big fan of Sam Davies. The other thing is, they have a really good back row as well. They don't have the depth in the outside backs or in the forwards so much so they need a bit of luck with injuries but they should definitely be in the mix at the end of the season.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Pot Hale on Tue 06 Sep 2016, 3:27 am

wayne wrote:
wayne wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:
wayne wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:I wonder how much different the current table after week 1 will be from end of the season?

I think I'm going to use a slightly unorthodox method to guess the final placings for end of season.  

Squad size and depth will play a part no doubt in getting through the test windows and various comps.  Here are the senior squad numbers in order:

Ospreys - 50
Ulster - 50
Dragons - 48
Scarlets - 47
Glasgow - 46
Connacht - 43
Leinster - 42
Treviso - 42
Munster - 41
Edinburgh - 42
Cardiff - 39
Zebre - 38
 PH, where did you get the 50 for us (Ospreys) because with the website and last weekends matchday programme we have 42, and from the latter you can delete Ryan Bevington who has left, and from the website you will soon be able to delete McCusker who is only on a short term contract, added to which Fonotia hasn't joined us yet.

It was Wonderful Wikipedia - Wayne.  Not the most accurate of sources....
PH, I've just come from the dentist after having a tooth out, I'll put our list up later, some of the names on Wiki could be development or play regularly for our feeder clubs.
PH, just had a look at the list on Wiki, and as I thought there are 50 names there, with 7 written in red with a small d indicating they are on development contracts, there is also Keelan Giles written in red without the d, none of those players are in the programme or the website squad and as I said Ryan Bevington has also left, so you can adjust our figure to 41 at the moment, and should be 40 soon when McCusker leaves.

Thanks for the info, Wayne. Does the fact they are on development contracts mean they won't be given any games in league this season, or just confined to Anglo-Welsh Cup games? Or is it B&I Cup matches only?

The only reason I looked at the squad sizes was to see what clubs had available to cope with the various comps, test windows, etc. clearly if a coach has sufficient squad players to put some of the lesser lights into less meaningful games/dead rubbers then that helps in conserving game time of the high-quality players.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by wayne on Tue 06 Sep 2016, 2:20 pm

Pot Hale wrote:
wayne wrote:
wayne wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:
wayne wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:I wonder how much different the current table after week 1 will be from end of the season?

I think I'm going to use a slightly unorthodox method to guess the final placings for end of season.  

Squad size and depth will play a part no doubt in getting through the test windows and various comps.  Here are the senior squad numbers in order:

Ospreys - 50
Ulster - 50
Dragons - 48
Scarlets - 47
Glasgow - 46
Connacht - 43
Leinster - 42
Treviso - 42
Munster - 41
Edinburgh - 42
Cardiff - 39
Zebre - 38
 PH, where did you get the 50 for us (Ospreys) because with the website and last weekends matchday programme we have 42, and from the latter you can delete Ryan Bevington who has left, and from the website you will soon be able to delete McCusker who is only on a short term contract, added to which Fonotia hasn't joined us yet.

It was Wonderful Wikipedia - Wayne.  Not the most accurate of sources....
PH, I've just come from the dentist after having a tooth out, I'll put our list up later, some of the names on Wiki could be development or play regularly for our feeder clubs.
PH, just had a look at the list on Wiki, and as I thought there are 50 names there, with 7 written in red with a small d indicating they are on development contracts, there is also Keelan Giles written in red without the d, none of those players are in the programme or the website squad and as I said Ryan Bevington has also left, so you can adjust our figure to 41 at the moment, and should be 40 soon when McCusker leaves.

Thanks for the info, Wayne.   Does the fact they are on development contracts mean they won't be given any games in league this season, or just confined to Anglo-Welsh Cup games?    Or is it B&I Cup matches only?

The only reason I looked at the squad sizes was to see what clubs had available to cope with the various comps, test windows, etc.   clearly if a coach has sufficient squad players to put some of the lesser lights into less meaningful games/dead rubbers then that helps in conserving game time of the high-quality players.
PH, in answer to your first paragraph, looking at the programme for our last GL game against Ulster, in one section it gives the full 23 for every game in the GL and RCC, apart from the possibility of Adam Beard being on a Development Contract, even with all the injuries and WC absentees there was not one player from our DC contingent involved in any of those matches. I'm not saying it hasn't happened in the past and could well do so in the future, but last season was pretty extreme in the number of top flight players that were missing for significant periods of the season. There was a couple of players used Boladau, Jenkins and Underhill were under contract at Premiership teams and were co-opted to us.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by wayne on Tue 06 Sep 2016, 2:28 pm

Notch wrote:Agree with Wayne in that I'll be surprised if Ospreys don't make the playoffs.

Rhys Webb/Dan Biggar is arguably the best halfback partnership in the league. Pienaar and Jackson is also really good but unlike Ulster they have quality back-ups too. I'm a big fan of Sam Davies. The other thing is, they have a really good back row as well. They don't have the depth in the outside backs or in the forwards so much so they need a bit of luck with injuries but they should definitely be in the mix at the end of the season.
Part of that I totally agree with is your back row statement Notch, we had Cracknell, Tipuric and Ardron starting last Friday if you then add Lydiate, Underhill and Baker and finally put in James King, that to me is a truly outstanding set contesting 3 positions. I don't envy Steve Tandy's job in selecting personnel for each and every game.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by George Carlin on Tue 06 Sep 2016, 2:43 pm

Why don't Wales fans rate the Scarlets? Just habit? Or is there something else?

A lot of fans had them down as 'rubbish', etc, last season as well but they pushed all the way and were unlucky not to make the playoffs/

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by wayne on Tue 06 Sep 2016, 3:10 pm

George Carlin wrote:Why don't Wales fans rate the Scarlets? Just habit? Or is there something else?

A lot of fans had them down as 'rubbish', etc, last season as well but they pushed all the way and were unlucky not to make the playoffs/
I think that is a bit harsh George, go and have a look at what I've just posted on this season OP, there are many on Scarlet Fever just as vociferous about the Scarlets as on here.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by demosthenes on Tue 06 Sep 2016, 4:18 pm

[quote="wayne"][quote="Pot Hale"][quote="wayne"][quote="wayne"][quote="Pot Hale"][quote="wayne"]
Pot Hale wrote:

PH, in answer to your first paragraph, looking at the programme for our last GL game against Ulster, in one section it gives the full 23 for every game in the GL and RCC, apart from the possibility of Adam Beard being on a Development Contract, even with all the injuries and WC absentees there was not one player from our DC contingent involved in any of those matches. I'm not saying it hasn't happened in the past and could well do so in the future, but last season was pretty extreme in the number of top flight players that were missing for significant periods of the season. There was a couple of players used Boladau, Jenkins and Underhill were under contract at Premiership teams and were co-opted to us.

What does that say about the standard of your Development Contract players; or about the management? I assume that DC is something different to Scottish EDP, as Glasgow especially seem to have no qualms about using theirs as necessary, with a number taking the opportunity to show that they are ready for full pro contracts every year.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by wayne on Tue 06 Sep 2016, 6:37 pm

demosthenes wrote:
wayne wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:
wayne wrote:
wayne wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:
wayne wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:

PH, in answer to your first paragraph, looking at the programme for our last GL game against Ulster, in one section it gives the full 23 for every game in the GL and RCC, apart from the possibility of Adam Beard being on a Development Contract, even with all the injuries and WC absentees there was not one player from our DC contingent involved in any of those matches. I'm not saying it hasn't happened in the past and could well do so in the future, but last season was pretty extreme in the number of top flight players that were missing for significant periods of the season. There was a couple of players used Boladau, Jenkins and Underhill were under contract at Premiership teams and were co-opted to us.

What does that say about the standard of your Development Contract players; or about the management?  I assume that DC is something different to Scottish EDP, as Glasgow especially seem to have no qualms about using theirs as necessary, with a number taking the opportunity to show that they are ready for full pro contracts every year.
Demosthenes, it says plenty about our succession planning, the majority of those players will get their first introduction to senior rugby in the B&I Cup and possibly into the Anglo Welsh Tournament, then and only if they see that they are capable of handling that age group will they be offered full contracts. A number of them are only about 18 years of age, one player Jeffries a prop we took from senior Welsh Premiership in the Dragons area is only 22. Most of the Welsh players in our squad under the age of around 25 came through the same system.
We IIRC for instance didn't play Tom Prydie before he was picked for a Welsh Squad, Keelan Giles was taken from the Welsh U20 WC squad to ludicrously be cover on the Welsh tour to NZ in the summer, one player on that list is a player called Jay Baker I wouldn't be at all surprised that makes into our squad this season, he was in our Junior squads and lost his way, he then took the Welsh Premiership by storm last season and in the 7s held at the CAP a few weeks ago he scored a 95 yard try down the wing totally outstripping the Scarlet defence, he is about 25 years old. Considering ours was the youngest squad in last years RCC I'm more than satisfied with our Development Structures.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by chris_501 on Wed 07 Sep 2016, 8:49 am

I have a feeling it may look like this

1&2 - Ulster and Glasgow
3-5 Leinster, Munster and Ospreys
6-8 Scarlets, Blues and Connacht
9&10 Edinburgh and Dragons
11&12 Zebre and Treviso

The Scarlets backline looks a little like the Welsh backline to me (no surprise) in that when play is structured, they seem a little one dimensional, and are too easy to defend against providing you make you first up tackles. But when things break up, they are capable of some brilliant team tries. Liam Williams will be key to keeping their spark throughout this year.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by George Carlin on Wed 07 Sep 2016, 11:28 am

wayne wrote:
George Carlin wrote:Why don't Wales fans rate the Scarlets? Just habit? Or is there something else?

A lot of fans had them down as 'rubbish', etc, last season as well but they pushed all the way and were unlucky not to make the playoffs/
I think that is a bit harsh George, go and have a look at what I've just posted on this season OP, there are many on Scarlet Fever just as vociferous about the Scarlets as on here.
Just to be clear - I am not making any judgement about whether it's correct or not - I just want to know what Wales fans think are the strengths and weaknesses of their franchises this year.

With Scottish teams, it's quite easy: West coasters - title challengers, East coasters - morris dancers who joined the wrong line in gym class.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by chris_501 on Wed 07 Sep 2016, 2:19 pm

George Carlin wrote:
wayne wrote:
George Carlin wrote:Why don't Wales fans rate the Scarlets? Just habit? Or is there something else?

A lot of fans had them down as 'rubbish', etc, last season as well but they pushed all the way and were unlucky not to make the playoffs/
I think that is a bit harsh George, go and have a look at what I've just posted on this season OP, there are many on Scarlet Fever just as vociferous about the Scarlets as on here.
Just to be clear - I am not making any judgement about whether it's correct or not - I just want to know what Wales fans think are the strengths and weaknesses of their franchises this year.

With Scottish teams, it's quite easy: West coasters - title challengers, East coasters - morris dancers who joined the wrong line in gym class.

I think all the regions will have the same issue, packs are too easily dominated, especially with a couple of front line players out.

Scarlets missing Lee and Evans clearly made a difference, Dragons always seem to have their revolving door of props, Blues had Scott Andrews benching behind a 58 yr old Filise. The Ospreys look best set, but I'm still not convinced on their tighthead options.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Kingshu on Wed 07 Sep 2016, 4:30 pm

George Carlin wrote:
wayne wrote:
George Carlin wrote:Why don't Wales fans rate the Scarlets? Just habit? Or is there something else?

A lot of fans had them down as 'rubbish', etc, last season as well but they pushed all the way and were unlucky not to make the playoffs/
I think that is a bit harsh George, go and have a look at what I've just posted on this season OP, there are many on Scarlet Fever just as vociferous about the Scarlets as on here.
Just to be clear - I am not making any judgement about whether it's correct or not - I just want to know what Wales fans think are the strengths and weaknesses of their franchises this year.

With Scottish teams, it's quite easy: West coasters - title challengers, East coasters - morris dancers who joined the wrong line in gym class.

On th e Scarlets Article Wayne did post that Scarlets have lost 15 of the last 23 games, and taking out the Dragons and the Italians that number changes to 15 of the last 19.

I didn't realise that, if true I can understand why some fans don't rate Scarlets chances this year.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by demosthenes on Wed 07 Sep 2016, 4:54 pm

wayne wrote:
demosthenes wrote:
wayne wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:
wayne wrote:
wayne wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:
wayne wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:

PH, in answer to your first paragraph, looking at the programme for our last GL game against Ulster, in one section it gives the full 23 for every game in the GL and RCC, apart from the possibility of Adam Beard being on a Development Contract, even with all the injuries and WC absentees there was not one player from our DC contingent involved in any of those matches. I'm not saying it hasn't happened in the past and could well do so in the future, but last season was pretty extreme in the number of top flight players that were missing for significant periods of the season. There was a couple of players used Boladau, Jenkins and Underhill were under contract at Premiership teams and were co-opted to us.

What does that say about the standard of your Development Contract players; or about the management?  I assume that DC is something different to Scottish EDP, as Glasgow especially seem to have no qualms about using theirs as necessary, with a number taking the opportunity to show that they are ready for full pro contracts every year.
Demosthenes, it says plenty about our succession planning, the majority of those players will get their first introduction to senior rugby in the B&I Cup and possibly into the Anglo Welsh Tournament, then and only if they see that they are capable of handling that age group will they be offered full contracts. A number of them are only about 18 years of age, one player Jeffries a prop we took from senior Welsh Premiership in the Dragons area is only 22. Most of the Welsh players in our squad under the age of around 25 came through the same system.
We IIRC for instance didn't play Tom Prydie before he was picked for a Welsh Squad, Keelan Giles was taken from the Welsh U20 WC squad to ludicrously be cover on the Welsh tour to NZ in the summer, one player on that list is a player called Jay Baker I wouldn't be at all surprised that makes into our squad this season, he was in our Junior squads and lost his way, he then took the Welsh Premiership by storm last season and in the 7s held at the CAP a few weeks ago he scored a 95 yard try down the wing totally outstripping the Scarlet defence, he is about 25 years old. Considering ours was the youngest squad in last years RCC I'm more than satisfied with our Development Structures.

My question was not a criticism, but a genuine query. It sounds like your Development players are intended for 'lesser' competitions and only in extremis used for the Pro12; whereas Glasgow appear to use their Development players as an almost integral part of the squad.

Whatever suits, I suppose.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by Pot Hale on Sat 10 Sep 2016, 10:33 pm

Well whatever Ospreys are doing, it's working.   Another smacking handed out to Connacht today who are looking decidedly lacklustre already this season.   It's going to be a tough few weeks for them before the break for November Internationals.  I can't see them faring too well in the Franglo with how they're playing at the minute.

Leinster have a touch of the lacklustre and humdrum too.   Glasgow well deserved their victory with Irishman Tommy Seymour hammering in the nails four times.

Munster were tucked away nicely by Cardiff but may yet get a top 6 spot only because the other sides below them are so cack and that includes many people's hopefuls - Connacht and Scarlets.

Still it's only Round 2, plenty of time for more catastrophes and cartwheels....

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by True Raven on Sat 10 Sep 2016, 10:41 pm

Pot Hale wrote:Well whatever Ospreys are doing, it's working.   Another smacking handed out to Connacht today who are looking decidedly lacklustre already this season.   It's going to be a tough few weeks for them before the break for November Internationals.  I can't see them faring too well in the Franglo with how they're playing at the minute.

Leinster have a touch of the lacklustre and humdrum too.   Glasgow well deserved their victory with Irishman Tommy Seymour hammering in the nails four times.

Munster were tucked away nicely by Cardiff but may yet get a top 6 spot only because the other sides below them are so cack and that includes many people's hopefuls - Connacht and Scarlets.

Still it's only Round 2, plenty of time for more catastrophes and cartwheels....

Last year was a one-off (well every four years). We don't have the strength in depth to cope with missing so many internationals and injuries but with our squad that we have, we could be the first team to win 5 league titles

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

Post by wayne on Sat 10 Sep 2016, 10:42 pm

Pot Hale wrote:Well whatever Ospreys are doing, it's working.   Another smacking handed out to Connacht today who are looking decidedly lacklustre already this season.   It's going to be a tough few weeks for them before the break for November Internationals.  I can't see them faring too well in the Franglo with how they're playing at the minute.

Leinster have a touch of the lacklustre and humdrum too.   Glasgow well deserved their victory with Irishman Tommy Seymour hammering in the nails four times.

Munster were tucked away nicely by Cardiff but may yet get a top 6 spot only because the other sides below them are so cack and that includes many people's hopefuls - Connacht and Scarlets.

Still it's only Round 2, plenty of time for more catastrophes and cartwheels....
PH I said a few weeks ago on a different topic that we would be back in our normal Welsh position, all because of the travails of last season and some very astute signings, things are looking up in Ospreylia.

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Re: Pro12 predictions 2016/17

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