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Post by ShahenshahG on Fri 02 Dec 2016, 12:16 pm

First topic message reminder :

Funniest thing to happen in years. Have been following the craziness on the FT. Despite the implications if our current crop of retards manage to push it through I can't remember when I've read the news everyday without fail and learned something new. What does everyone think of the possibility that we stay in the single market, retain freedom of movement. Pay into the EU coffers and lose our vote ??


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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 2:54 pm

Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:Shame Le Pen got handed her arse by Macron and Geert Wilders likewise by Rutte.

Neither of these things happened.

The Front National are closer to power than ever before in France. The fact that anti-FN people are celebrating Le Pen only getting 34% of the vote shows how far the FN have come; such a prospect would have seemed ludicrous ten years ago. And in the highly negative voting system which the French have, the FN should never be getting 34% of the vote in the second round.

And Wilders got a highly commendable (and unexpected) second place in the Netherlands; a country where, due to the sheer number of parties, he is unlikely to ever wield actual power. And Rutte took seven months to form a government!
Le Pen got handed her backside in the one-on-one against Macron. Wilders was still way off a majority. I think they're more or less at high water. They don't offer anything constructive at all and 'The Establishment' will take them much more seriously now, whereas beforehand, I don't think they did. Again, there've always been people with these views and they think it's their time. Nah.

The World's getting 'smaller' all the time. People can actually talk to one another quite easily now and find out that, amazingly, we're not a lot different from each other. That's anathema to Wilders et al.

Still, never say never. I wouldn't put it past humanity to start more World Wars etc based simply on a fear of 'others'.
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Post by ShahenshahG on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 2:56 pm

Scottrf wrote:
ShahenshahG wrote:I know you dont support Hitler


Well, he hasn't had a chance to vote for him.
laughing
A quick response not worded properly. Didn't want him working off his frustration by goose stepping in till I got back and explained my point.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 3:02 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:Shame Le Pen got handed her arse by Macron and Geert Wilders likewise by Rutte.

Neither of these things happened.

The Front National are closer to power than ever before in France. The fact that anti-FN people are celebrating Le Pen only getting 34% of the vote shows how far the FN have come; such a prospect would have seemed ludicrous ten years ago. And in the highly negative voting system which the French have, the FN should never be getting 34% of the vote in the second round.

And Wilders got a highly commendable (and unexpected) second place in the Netherlands; a country where, due to the sheer number of parties, he is unlikely to ever wield actual power. And Rutte took seven months to form a government!
Le Pen got handed her backside in the one-on-one against Macron. Wilders was still way off a majority. I think they're more or less at high water. They don't offer anything constructive at all and 'The Establishment' will take them much more seriously now, whereas beforehand, I don't think they did. Again, there've always been people with these views and they think it's their time. Nah.

The World's getting 'smaller' all the time. People can actually talk to one another quite easily now and find out that, amazingly, we're not a lot different from each other. That's anathema to Wilders et al.

Still, never say never. I wouldn't put it past humanity to start more World Wars etc based simply on a fear of 'others'.

The point being that both Le Pen and Wilders had minute chances of success, but they both achieved a vote share better than expected, and a vote share that indicates a) the FN is on the rise in France and b) Wilders' party are consolidating an established base.

Neither Le Pen nor Wilders will think they 'got their arse handed to them'.

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Post by LionsV2 on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 3:04 pm

UKIP under Farage only got 12.5% of the vote but it's quite possibly the most important vote share in this countries modern history.

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Post by Steffan on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 3:05 pm

Duty281 wrote:Brexit hasn't happened yet
Crikey...I have only just started back posting on here...and the cat drags you in laughing

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Post by Scottrf on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 3:06 pm

Le Pen got a bigger share of the vote than Corbyn. The narrative is that Corbyn mobilized the electorate and beat May and Le Pen got handed her backside?

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Post by Steffan on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 3:10 pm

I am a staunch Remainer but I think even I have to admit the comedy value that Brexit has given us all almost makes me glad the vote went that way

The UK could become a third world country resorting to cannibalism and you would still here the usual suspects giving it:

"Just takes time"

"Wont happen overnight"

"We are leaving...deal with it"

"Finally taking back our country"

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 3:10 pm

Steffan wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Brexit hasn't happened yet
Crikey...I have only just started back posting on here...and the cat drags you in laughing

I've been here a while, dear chap.

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Post by Steffan on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 3:23 pm

Brexit Simplified - A novel by Steffan

You and your mates drink in a pub. The pub isn't perfect. There are people in the pub that you don't even like. The landlord can be a bit funny at times as well...but it has a nice warm fire and serves good beer

Then one of your mates who loves to stir things up convinces everyone to tell the landlord where to stick his pub and you all leave. At the end of the day...there are other pubs to drink in. Then when you get outside in the cold you realise there are no other pubs to drink in

You can't go back in the pub as "Telling the landlord where to stick his pub" means "Telling the landlord where to stick his pub". So you and your mates buy some cans of lager and drink on the street out in the freezing cold

You keep telling yourselves that the landlord will want you back in the pub but on your terms...but he doesn't. So you wait for a new pub to open...but it doesn't. So there you are...drinking cans out in the freezing cold

But at least you told that landlord and that pub where to stick it hey

The End

(c) 2017


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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 3:30 pm

Scottrf wrote:Le Pen got a bigger share of the vote than Corbyn. The narrative is that Corbyn mobilized the electorate and beat May and Le Pen got handed her backside?

Le Pen got 33 percent.in a two horse race.

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Post by Scottrf on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 3:32 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Scottrf wrote:Le Pen got a bigger share of the vote than Corbyn. The narrative is that Corbyn mobilized the electorate and beat May and Le Pen got handed her backside?

Le Pen got 33 percent.in a two horse race.
So did Corbyn.

Either way, you can't pretend like someone is a fringe candidate whose views are only shared by a few if they get a third of the vote.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:00 pm

Never thought The French National front were fringe...

But you have to factor in that in a two horse race...That plenty of right wingers probably detest Macron...So like UKIP they pick up protest votes..

Like with Trump you can vote for him and not like him if you hate Liberal philosophy.

Over here you have Lib dems..SNP..Greens as an alternative to Corbyn.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:07 pm

Scottrf wrote:Le Pen got a bigger share of the vote than Corbyn. The narrative is that Corbyn mobilized the electorate and beat May and Le Pen got handed her backside?
66% Macron, 34% Le Pen. She got hammered. That Corbyn 'narrative' isn't mine by the way (he lost, lest we forget) and he was expected to get thrashed, so the UK result was a surprise to many. It was suggested that Le Pen could well win. Not really the same thing.
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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:08 pm

Steffan wrote:Brexit Simplified - A novel by Steffan

You and your mates drink in a pub. The pub isn't perfect. There are people in the pub that you don't even like. The landlord can be a bit funny at times as well...but it has a nice warm fire and serves good beer

Then one of your mates who loves to stir things up convinces everyone to tell the landlord where to stick his pub and you all leave. At the end of the day...there are other pubs to drink in. Then when you get outside in the cold you realise there are no other pubs to drink in

You can't go back in the pub as "Telling the landlord where to stick his pub" means "Telling the landlord where to stick his pub". So you and your mates buy some cans of lager and drink on the street out in the freezing cold

You keep telling yourselves that the landlord will want you back in the pub but on your terms...but he doesn't. So you wait for a new pub to open...but it doesn't. So there you are...drinking cans out in the freezing cold

But at least you told that landlord and that pub where to stick it hey

The End

(c) 2017
OK Not a bad analogy, that.
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Post by Scottrf on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:15 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
Scottrf wrote:Le Pen got a bigger share of the vote than Corbyn. The narrative is that Corbyn mobilized the electorate and beat May and Le Pen got handed her backside?
66% Macron, 34% Le Pen. She got hammered. That Corbyn 'narrative' isn't mine by the way (he lost, lest we forget) and he was expected to get thrashed, so the UK result was a surprise to many. It was suggested that Le Pen could well win. Not really the same thing.

She got hammered, but 34% of the voters could identify with her. Not insignificant. The pre-election narrative is irrelevant.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:16 pm

Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:Shame Le Pen got handed her arse by Macron and Geert Wilders likewise by Rutte.

Neither of these things happened.

The Front National are closer to power than ever before in France. The fact that anti-FN people are celebrating Le Pen only getting 34% of the vote shows how far the FN have come; such a prospect would have seemed ludicrous ten years ago. And in the highly negative voting system which the French have, the FN should never be getting 34% of the vote in the second round.

And Wilders got a highly commendable (and unexpected) second place in the Netherlands; a country where, due to the sheer number of parties, he is unlikely to ever wield actual power. And Rutte took seven months to form a government!
Le Pen got handed her backside in the one-on-one against Macron. Wilders was still way off a majority. I think they're more or less at high water. They don't offer anything constructive at all and 'The Establishment' will take them much more seriously now, whereas beforehand, I don't think they did. Again, there've always been people with these views and they think it's their time. Nah.

The World's getting 'smaller' all the time. People can actually talk to one another quite easily now and find out that, amazingly, we're not a lot different from each other. That's anathema to Wilders et al.

Still, never say never. I wouldn't put it past humanity to start more World Wars etc based simply on a fear of 'others'.

The point being that both Le Pen and Wilders had minute chances of success, but they both achieved a vote share better than expected, and a vote share that indicates a) the FN is on the rise in France and b) Wilders' party are consolidating an established base.

Neither Le Pen nor Wilders will think they 'got their arse handed to them'.
Maybe. Their entire rhetoric is essentially "Foreigners are scum and we're better!" - I wonder where that sort of thing's been heard before? That'll only take them so far. The World's getting 'smaller' I'm afraid and the Le Pens of the World are just ranting against the inevitable and, if they have any brain cells at all, the 'Establishment' are wise to them now.

Le Pen, in particular, got a spanking in a two-horse race.
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Post by Scottrf on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:18 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:Maybe. Their entire rhetoric is essentially "Foreigners are scum and we're better!"

Nope. You can keep thinking that but you've had your eyes closed with regards to Le Pen.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:19 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
Scottrf wrote:Le Pen got a bigger share of the vote than Corbyn. The narrative is that Corbyn mobilized the electorate and beat May and Le Pen got handed her backside?
66% Macron, 34% Le Pen. She got hammered. That Corbyn 'narrative' isn't mine by the way (he lost, lest we forget) and he was expected to get thrashed, so the UK result was a surprise to many. It was suggested that Le Pen could well win. Not really the same thing.

Whilst Fillon, Macron and the others were fighting for the Liberal slate she did okay numbers...Predominantly because she was the only one at that time certain to reach the run off.

But when it was a two horse race I don't think Macron ever fell below 60% in any poll........Not suggesting that no one suggested she could win but most people thought she would struggle when it came down to two................She was certainly helped by the atrocities France has had to put up with in the last few years for sure....like Charlie Hebdo which was an afffront to free speech.

Nobody really won GE17.................Corbyn would have been the happiest out of all the leaders..

Whether Labour lose in the long term because of it....Is going to be the question...

Brexit will probably determine that.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:20 pm

Scottrf wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Scottrf wrote:Le Pen got a bigger share of the vote than Corbyn. The narrative is that Corbyn mobilized the electorate and beat May and Le Pen got handed her backside?
66% Macron, 34% Le Pen. She got hammered. That Corbyn 'narrative' isn't mine by the way (he lost, lest we forget) and he was expected to get thrashed, so the UK result was a surprise to many. It was suggested that Le Pen could well win. Not really the same thing.

She got hammered, but 34% of the voters could identify with her. Not insignificant. The pre-election narrative is irrelevant.
Agreed on the 34% and it's potential significance.
The pre-election narrative is not irrelevant when you're trying to equate the Corbyn situation and Le Pen, which you were. Corbyn did better than expected; Le Pen got owned, against expectations.

This far right bollox will probably get worse before it gets better, but the long-term direction of travel is less Nationalism, not more. Le Pen etc are extinct - they just haven't realised it yet.
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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:22 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Scottrf wrote:Le Pen got a bigger share of the vote than Corbyn. The narrative is that Corbyn mobilized the electorate and beat May and Le Pen got handed her backside?
66% Macron, 34% Le Pen. She got hammered. That Corbyn 'narrative' isn't mine by the way (he lost, lest we forget) and he was expected to get thrashed, so the UK result was a surprise to many. It was suggested that Le Pen could well win. Not really the same thing.

Whilst Fillon, Macron and the others were fighting for the Liberal slate she did okay numbers...Predominantly because she was the only one at that time certain to reach the run off.

But when it was a two horse race I don't think Macron ever fell below 60% in any poll........Not suggesting that no one suggested she could win but most people thought she would struggle when it came down to two................She was certainly helped by the atrocities France has had to put up with in the last few years for sure....like Charlie Hebdo which was an afffront to free speech.

Nobody really won GE17.................Corbyn would have been the happiest out of all the leaders..

Whether Labour lose in the long term because of it....Is going to be the question...

Brexit will probably determine that.
Agree with all of this. Le Pen was being touted pre-runoff, but not after, as you suggest. Once she got into the two-horse race, she was only ever going to be thrashed as all the non-far right voters shifted to Macron, whether they really liked him or not.
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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:24 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:...Nobody really won GE17.................Corbyn would have been the happiest out of all the leaders..

Whether Labour lose in the long term because of it....Is going to be the question...

Brexit will probably determine that.
Probably true, and the Tories are really trying to FUBAR the negotiations for that it seems.
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Post by Scottrf on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:24 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:Le Pen got owned, against expectations.

Against very late expectations, which were only so high because of how well she was doing. That's precisely why expectations are irrelevant. They are based on late polling, and if you'd said a few years ago she would get those numbers, would be above expectations. Performance vs expectations is just a function of how accurate polling is.

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Post by LionsV2 on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:26 pm

34% for a far right party isn't a thrashing at all, that is a hugely significant portion of the population.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:39 pm

LionsV2 wrote:34% for a far right party isn't a thrashing at all, that is a hugely significant portion of the population.
Yes, as has been said. However, polling 34% in a two-horse race is a thumping, by anyone's reckoning. Let's see where Front National are next time around - maybe they'll do better, in which case where the "...Egalité, Fraternité" ?
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Post by Steffan on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:40 pm

I hate Le Pen but must admit that 34% is not a bad figure in the spectrum of things

UKIP showed how much damage a small party can do to the country

And Le Pen is a far bigger fish than those moronic cretins

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Post by LionsV2 on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:42 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
LionsV2 wrote:34% for a far right party isn't a thrashing at all, that is a hugely significant portion of the population.
Yes, as has been said. However, polling 34% in a two-horse race is a thumping, by anyone's reckoning. Let's see where Front National are next time around - maybe they'll do better, in which case where the "...Egalité, Fraternité" ?

I simply can't agree with that, were it a more centrist party then that would a fair comment but doesn't really apply to parties on either extreme.

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 4:45 pm

Le Pen was never expected to win. Ever. She slightly exceeded expectations in that she a) made it to the second round and b) got a third of the vote.

She was always expected to be soundly beaten in the second round.

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Post by ShahenshahG on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 6:23 pm

https://edition.independent.co.uk/editions/uk.co.independent.issue.171017/data/8003871/index.html

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Post by Hero on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 8:57 pm

Duty281 wrote:Le Pen was never expected to win. Ever. She slightly exceeded expectations in that she a) made it to the second round and b) got a third of the vote.

She was always expected to be soundly beaten in the second round.

Trump wasn't expected to win
Brexit wasn't expected to win.

These times are a changing (not necessarily for the better)

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 17 Oct 2017, 9:41 pm

Hero wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Le Pen was never expected to win. Ever. She slightly exceeded expectations in that she a) made it to the second round and b) got a third of the vote.

She was always expected to be soundly beaten in the second round.

Trump  wasn't expected to win
Brexit wasn't expected to win.

These times are a changing (not necessarily for the better)

Who by? I firmly expected Trump to win (the only surprise for me being his margin wasn't bigger), and I had initially predicted Brexit before wavering in the final few days!

I don't think Le Pen ever got consistently north of 40% in a solitary poll, and in the highly negative French electoral system, she never had a viable chance of success.

The times are indeed a changing (thank goodness).

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Post by LionsV2 on Wed 18 Oct 2017, 10:07 am

Too much stock is placed in pre-election polling now, when was the last time they got a result right?

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Post by Scottrf on Wed 18 Oct 2017, 10:16 am

LionsV2 wrote:Too much stock is placed in pre-election polling now, when was the last time they got a result right?

I'm sure they are just terrible at maths.

They literally anonymously ask people who they voted for (not who they are going to vote for) and still get it wrong.

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Post by navyblueshorts on Wed 18 Oct 2017, 4:32 pm

Scottrf wrote:
LionsV2 wrote:Too much stock is placed in pre-election polling now, when was the last time they got a result right?

I'm sure they are just terrible at maths.

They literally anonymously ask people who they voted for (not who they are going to vote for) and still get it wrong.
You (and they) are assuming people give an honest answer when asked. Perhaps they aren't.
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Post by Scottrf on Wed 18 Oct 2017, 4:32 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
Scottrf wrote:
LionsV2 wrote:Too much stock is placed in pre-election polling now, when was the last time they got a result right?

I'm sure they are just terrible at maths.

They literally anonymously ask people who they voted for (not who they are going to vote for) and still get it wrong.
You (and they) are assuming people give an honest answer when asked. Perhaps they aren't.

For what aim?

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Wed 18 Oct 2017, 4:42 pm

Scottrf wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Scottrf wrote:
LionsV2 wrote:Too much stock is placed in pre-election polling now, when was the last time they got a result right?

I'm sure they are just terrible at maths.

They literally anonymously ask people who they voted for (not who they are going to vote for) and still get it wrong.
You (and they) are assuming people give an honest answer when asked. Perhaps they aren't.

For what aim?

To p!ss off the 'experts'?

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Post by Galted on Wed 18 Oct 2017, 4:42 pm

Scottrf wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Scottrf wrote:
LionsV2 wrote:Too much stock is placed in pre-election polling now, when was the last time they got a result right?

I'm sure they are just terrible at maths.

They literally anonymously ask people who they voted for (not who they are going to vote for) and still get it wrong.
You (and they) are assuming people give an honest answer when asked. Perhaps they aren't.

For what aim?

To hide their embarrassment.
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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 18 Oct 2017, 5:00 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
Scottrf wrote:
LionsV2 wrote:Too much stock is placed in pre-election polling now, when was the last time they got a result right?

I'm sure they are just terrible at maths.

They literally anonymously ask people who they voted for (not who they are going to vote for) and still get it wrong.
You (and they) are assuming people give an honest answer when asked. Perhaps they aren't.

1. For GE17 Pollsters worked on pre-2015 calculations/formulas.............Which meant the Tory vote share of 43% was pretty much spot on...............What they didn't account for was the volume of usual non voters and kids that turned up on the day....

Only thing they got wrong was the Labour share.....

2. As for Brexit............Most of the online polls showed Brexit winning........The mistake was to assume the phone polls were more accurate..

3. Clinton beat Trump by 3% in the National vote.....................Most pollsters had it around 3-8%.........What they got wrong was the bellwether polling.......Michigan, Wisconsin etc..

Perhaps you guys are being a bit harsh....Or maybe perhaps not !! Wink

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Post by Muscular-mouse on Wed 18 Oct 2017, 7:25 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Muscular-mouse wrote:Can some Brexit supporters please tell me what good has come from brexit? Will it make the UK richer? Will it create more home grown talent? I mean without using soundbites such as 'taking back control' or whatever nonsense politicians use what good do you think brexit will do to the UK.

Brexit hasn't happened yet.

Which is my point, you voted for brexit in order to achieve what? WHat positive outcomes will the UK achieve from brexit?

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 18 Oct 2017, 7:38 pm

350 million more a week for the NHS...

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Post by ShahenshahG on Wed 18 Oct 2017, 7:43 pm

To take back our sovereignty ... and give it to Trump

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Post by Galted on Wed 18 Oct 2017, 8:19 pm

It will stop foreigners praying in our mosques.


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