PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

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PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Fri 30 Dec 2016, 2:56 pm

1).To paraphrase David Frost, etc, "That was the year that was, It's over, let it go". Imagine a lot of people feel that way about 2016:
Danny Willett played the back nine of his life on Masters Sunday whilst Jordan Spieth had the nightmare of his life. Then Willett disappeared, with his brother making more news than Danny did.

Jimmy Walker snapped out of his funk for just long enough to win the PGA, likewise Team USA as the Ryder Cup returned to the Americans.

Adam Scott, Jason Day, Rory all had purple patches that weren't sustained whilst Dustin Johnson had an even purpler patch and won the US Open despite the USGA's worst efforts.

And Henrik Stenson won his Open, probably as well deserved a first Major as we've seen for a long time. (It's not too late Sergio. Is it?)

Meanwhile, Phil Mickelson contested the two finest duels of the year, without registering a "W".

2).The 20- and 30-somethings largely had their way with PGA Tour events, until Rod Bl00dy Pampling won in Las Vegas anyway even cracking a smile in the process. Far Eastern golfers continued to show that there is life after KJ Choi, Shigeki and Thongchai, with Matsuyama leading the way, a handful of South Korean stars following close behind. Whilst a resurgent Jhonny Vegas, who wears a smile whatever his playing fortunes, won in Canada.

3).Elsewhere there were apparent generational changes gathering pace:
Aussies Allenby, Appleby and Senden (not to mention RBP) are stumbling towards Senior Golf; Day and Scott are still at the top of their game, but the next flight of young Aussie golfers needs to step up. Is Cameron Smith the real deal, for instance?
Els and Goosen creak into their late 40's and Oosthuizen & Schwartzel flatter often but deceive almost as frequently. We know Branden Grace can be very, very good, but even he failed to kick on from his Harbour Town clinic.

4).The British guard is changing fast. Rose won his Olympic Gold, but that was the only real highlight of a disappointing year.
Poulter limped through the early part of the season, retired hurt for a while, then struggled upon his return.
Donald is fading as a competitive force whilst McDowell looks like he'd rather be pulling pints at Nona Blue.
Casey plugs along in borderline contention and his bank manager's good graces without looking the Champion one once felt he'd become.

Russell Knox enjoyed a superb season and perhaps Willett will play a full US schedule, not necessarily to validate his Masters win which was thoroughly deserved, but to remind us all what a fine player he can be.
Meanwhile, the US Media is in love with Beef; hopefully relative young'uns like Fitzpatrick, Hatton, Sullivan, Willett and Wood can show that there's much more to English golf than that.

5).Europeans who play two Tours always seem to be walking a fine line between quality of play and quantity of tournaments. Gonzo so far has failed, but Molinari showed that a golfer with similar CV can do it. What about Lowry after his dismal finish to a year that promised so much, at Oakmont at least? Johnston, Kjeldsen and Rafa look as if they'll try their luck this coming year and more about that in 2017. Then there's Thomas Pieters who is sure to be in demand in the same way as Colsaerts was four years ago . . . . . .

6).Two Pros are suggesting that health problems may be getting the better of them, with Erik Compton and Jarrod Lyle apparently taking sabbaticals. Good health to both.

7).The Champions Tour is ready to welcome a strong group of newcomers with Bob Estes, Steve Flesch, Jerry Kelly, Olazabal, Stricker and Toms all having turned 50 or just about to.

8).We lost some golfing royalty in 2016, with Arnold Palmer and 2 x O'Connors leaving the course. RIP to all, including Christy Junior's 2-iron. (And Joey Boots died - can that mean that Baba Booey can be silenced too?)

Happy New Year to all on The v2 Forum

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Fri 30 Dec 2016, 8:10 pm

Curtis Luck could probably be the next great Aussie Hope.  Winner of the US Amateur and the Pacific-Asian Amateur.  AFAIK, Mickelson and Ryan Moore are the only players in recent memory to do it, Moore qualified twice by winning the 2004 US Am Public Links and the 2004 US Amateur, and Mickelson won the Tucson tournament in 1991 and the 1990 US Amateur.

Interested to see who won't be playing in Maui.  Saw a tweet from Brandon Grace that he was looking forward to his first ToC.

Checking the South African Open entry list, Rory is playing but no one else from the Top 50.  No Grace, No King Charl, no King Louis.  Brandon Stone, Sterne, Ernie and Retief are in the field.  And Sir Nick Faldo is playing!

Edit: Andy Sullivan is playing in South Africa (ranked #44)

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Sat 31 Dec 2016, 2:16 am

Kwini... thanks again for your weekly work. Much appreciated.. thumbsup thumbsup

GPB: I think that's a great call on Curtis Luck. Best looking prospect out of Australia since Jason Day methinks....

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Sat 31 Dec 2016, 11:23 am

Cheers robo,

Hopefully Luck will be the real thing, but we've been down this route before with Aussies succeeding at the Am level but not training on, Flanagan, Ollie Goss, Watt, McPherson. None quite have Luck's CV, but you'd've expected more from all of them.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Sat 31 Dec 2016, 4:24 pm

With as many prospects that media and bloggers promote, there are bound to be players that don't meet expectations.

I don't think the expectations for Flanagan, Goss, Watt, and McPherson were any higher than others with similar resumes.

Not only has Luck won the US Am and the Asian Amateur, but he has also won a Pro Tournament on the Australian PGATour.

If someone offered me an option on a amateur's future earnings, I would probably take Curtis as my player.

Maverick McNealy has the potential, but I don't know how motivated he is, as he has an extremely wealthy father. He might go the career amateur route.


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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Sat 31 Dec 2016, 9:49 pm

No-Laying-Up is reporting that Rory is switching to the new and improved Titleist Pro V1 Golf ball, Callaway Driver and Callaway Irons.

No-Laying-Up wrote:“I want to play the new ProV1x ball and I know the Callaway driver works the best with it. I also know my Nike irons don’t work as well with the Titleist ball because of the groove format. Too spinny, and a loss of distance,” McIlroy told No Laying Up in late December.

http://nolayingup.com/2016/12/31/rory-mcilroy-callaway/

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Sun 01 Jan 2017, 1:41 am

I suppose he's still going to be wearing the Nike clobber, but for how long?
Actually surprised he didn't go back to his Titleist fairway "woods".

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by raycastleunited on Sun 01 Jan 2017, 10:38 am

I'm no expert in this area, but doesn't Callaway tend to sponsor everything in the bag, head to toe?


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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Sun 01 Jan 2017, 1:45 pm

raycastleunited wrote:I'm no expert in this area, but doesn't Callaway tend to sponsor everything in the bag, head to toe?


Stenson plays Callaway woods and irons, Odyssey Putter and Titleist Golf Ball

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/equipment-insider/whats-bag-open-champ-stenson/

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 1:08 pm

Wow... amazing how far Hideki has come. A year ago I couldn't imagine him being the betting favorite in a field like this... but I can't argue he's deserving now...

SBS Tournament of Champions Betting Odds

5/1 - Matsuyama
11/2 - DJ, Spieth
13/2 - Day
11/1 - Reed
16/1 - Bubba, Justin Thomas
20/1 - Snedeker
22/1 - Berger
25/1 - Moore, Walker
28/1 - Knox
35/1 - Finau
40/1 - Dufner, Grace
50/1 - Steele, Si-Woo Kim
66/1 - Charley Hoffman
80/1 - Perez, Vegas, McGirt, Gomez
90/1 - Hahn
100/1 - Gribble, Hughes, Baddeley
125/1 - Hurley III,
150/1 - Herman, Taylor Pampling
200/1 - Stuard
250/1 - Chalmers

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 1:19 pm

I understand why a bunch of the Euro guys skip Maui, or at least I have in the past.  But not so sure it makes as much sense this year.  There's no ET tournament this week, and only Rory that I can see is playing in South Africa next week.

Rory skipping because he's in next week's South African Open as a payback to Ernie Els I understand... Schwartzel not playing S.A. Open is a bit more of a head scratcher.

Not so sure it makes as much sense for all the others skipping Maui... Adam Scott, Danny Willett, Sergio Garcia and Henrik Stenson.

I wouldn't be worried about Scott, Sergio or Stenson still being able to put themselves in great shape for the FedEx Cup... but I would have concerns for Charl and Willett. Seems to me this would be a lock start to get guaranteed FE points, and a start against their 15.  

Oh well... I'm sure they all have their reasons....

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 1:36 pm

It is possible that some of the "double dippers" with exemptions to spare are becoming ambivalent about PGA Tour cards.
And it looks as if Stenson & Willett plan to start their season in Abu Dhabi.
Scott more of a puzzler for me as he often plays both Hawaii events then takes the month off before Riviera.

If the real Jimmy Walker turns up in Maui, he'd be fantastic value at 25's.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by McLaren on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 2:01 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:Actually surprised he didn't go back to his Titleist fairway "woods".

It is really surprising that he his switching to Callaway if he has free choice, given that most in the business seem to think the best drivers for pro's are the Taylormade ones.

And Callaway irons are traditionally for hackers.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 2:17 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:It is possible that some of the "double dippers" with exemptions to spare are becoming ambivalent about PGA Tour cards.
And it looks as if Stenson & Willett plan to start their season in Abu Dhabi.
Scott more of a puzzler for me as he often plays both Hawaii events then takes the month off before Riviera.

If the real Jimmy Walker turns up in Maui, he'd be fantastic value at 25's.
Could be ambivalence Kwini... I dunno. Could be Willett's outlook on a PGAT campaign might have dampened with all that went on with the Ryder Cup??? And I guess Scott decided the paycheck in Singapore (the week of Abu Dhabi and Palm Springs), closer to home was more important than a Hawaii start. With an almost 2-year old at home, I can understand that.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 2:37 pm

How about a trivia question!

What player has played the Tournament of Champions in Maui despite never winning an official PGATour Tournament?


Last edited by GPB on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 2:56 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Official *PGATour* Tournament)

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 2:47 pm

I think he HAS won an official PGA tournament, or several, but I'm guessing Adam Scott . . . . . . .

Better check on that!

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 2:54 pm

IMO, the only reason why a EuroT players join the PGATour is the FEX Cup. Non PGATour players can play up to 13 events, which is basically what a dual Tour golfer plays prior to the FEX Cup.

So why join the Tour at all if you are not going to play the FEX playoffs.

Other than the Players, Willett has NOT played a non-co-sanctioned PGATour since he joined the PGATour after winning the Masters.

Shane Lowry circa 2015-16 season, is exhibit A why players like Willett & Schwartzel should be playing Maui. The Guaranteed 30-40 pts is about 8% of the points required to make the FEX playoffs.

Adam, Rory, Sergio, Henrik have proven that they have no issues qualifying for the Top 125. Charl has been up and down in his career, and Willett has a good chance to suffer the same fate as Shane Lowry.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 2:58 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:I think he HAS won an official PGA tournament, or several, but I'm guessing Adam Scott . . . . . . .

Better check on that!

Not Adam Scott!

This player is not credited with winning any official PGATournaments.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 3:00 pm

GPB wrote:How about a trivia question!

What player has played the Tournament of Champions in Maui despite never winning an official PGATour Tournament?
Francesco Molinari ? Won the WGC HSBC Champions before it was an official event on the PGA Tour...

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 3:06 pm

Ding Ding Ding. Franny is the correct answer.


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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 3:09 pm

GPB wrote:IMO, the only reason why a EuroT players join the PGATour is the FEX Cup.  Non PGATour players can play up to 13 events, which is basically what a dual Tour golfer plays prior to the FEX Cup.
 I believe the max is now 12 for all players.  There used to be an "extra" for the Players back when they had the differing rules for non-members and prior members on "probation" for having given up their membership. But that rule was done away with and replaced by a flat 12 for all non-members.  

However... there IS a way to get more than 12 (other than by winning an event or STM). Difficult for the TOP players, but easier for those who aren't qualified for all the Majors and WGC's starting the year.. One example is a guy who's used up his 12 can still Monday qualify to get extra starts. I just learned that this past year... another is a guy could have already used up his 12, but then later qualifies for a WGC or Major...


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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 3:15 pm

GPB wrote:Ding Ding Ding.  Franny is the correct answer.
Oddly... IF Franny would have been a PGAT member at the time, the WIN would have been official on the PGAT, but the money still wouldn't have been.  Same with Martin Kaymer the next year. Like Franny, his 2011 WGC HSBC win counts only as an official Euro Tour win but NOT a PGA Tour win because Kaymer didn't take PGAT membership in 2011.  Poulter's win in 2012 DID count as an official PGAT win because he was a member, but the money was still UN-official.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 3:41 pm

GPB... I agree the only reason for a non-member to join is the FedEX Cup... but in that regard, the "free" FedEx Points for bottom finishes in an event like this is not what it was in year's past. With the revised FE Points scale, this year #30 gets 28 and then 26.5 pts. for 31st, and 25 for 32nd.   Last year those would have been 41, 40 & 39 respectively.  I don't know what the "bar" will be for top-125 this year with the new points system, but I'm guessing about a 20% reduction.... my guess is about 360-370. But still, IMO that actually makes playing the ToC MORE valuable, not less... because those finishes of say 40 and below in WGC's and such used to really help the Euro players in FE Points... but now 40th is about half the points it used to be

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Mon 02 Jan 2017, 5:44 pm

There is only a 15% reduction in Total FEX for most tournaments so I don't think #125 is going down as far as 360-370 pts. I think 400 pts will be the low end and I would put the over/under on #125 at 415 pts.

=========

Jason Sobel offers a different perspective on the "over-saturation" PGATour season.

http://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/18379278/here-how-fix-pga-tour-saturation-problem

I can see his point, but do not agree that it is a problem that needs fixing.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Tue 03 Jan 2017, 2:36 am

GPB wrote:There is only a 15% reduction in Total FEX for most tournaments so I don't think #125 is going down as far as 360-370 pts.  I think 400 pts will be the low end and I would put the over/under on #125 at 415 pts.
Actually for "regular" tournaments the reduction for 1st-70th place is about 15%.  But the big reduction in the new scheme is between 20th and 70th where there's about a 40% reduction.  

IMO the top end guys with a lot of top-10 to top-20 finishes isn't going to change much % wise.  But get to the lower end where a typical 125 guy with few top-20's resides, and he's gonna get hit a lot harder.  

For instance here are some real life examples... I randomly took #125, 115 and 105 from last year's FE regular season points

Seung-Yul Noh was #125 last year with 454 FE points. When recalculated with the new point scale... it reduced by roughly 119 points to 337...  that's a 26% reduction.

Then I looked at Mark Hubbard who was #115 with 503 FE Points and on the new scale he came out to 360, a 29% reduction.

Then I looked at Robert Streb who was #105 with 594 FE Points and on the new scale he came out to 430, a 27.5% reduction.

Note: these 3 examples are not exact due to rounding on the tables I took the data from. But I have high confidence they are correct within 1-2% either way.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Tue 03 Jan 2017, 4:00 am

Time will tell, I just don't think the reduction will be that much. and somewhat offsetting the reduction will be the Zurich classic which will be offering more total points and the Greenbrier Classic, which hopefully will be played.

FWIW, and it is trivial difference but you included the 4 2016 FEX points earned at the Barclays for Hubbard and Streb. Noh missed the cut at Barclays

The new system will help no doubt the players who are inconsistent. Lots of Missed Cuts but with several top 10, like a Bud Cauley or Graham Delaet. I think Delaet's last season would result in ~417 pts, about 85% of his last year's total.

Streb and Noh had 1 top 10, and Hubbard had zero top 10s.


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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 03 Jan 2017, 11:31 am

McLaren wrote:...And Callaway irons are traditionally for hackers.  
Huh? A dafter quote you'd be hard pressed to find. Mickleson and Els ring any bells with you? Patrick Reed? Stenson? Of course, they're all terrible ball strikers so maybe that's not so much of a surprise... picard

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by raycastleunited on Tue 03 Jan 2017, 11:31 am

McLaren wrote:
And Callaway irons are traditionally for hackers.  

What a strange comment. I suppose you wouldn't consider using a Pro V1 ball either because Titleist also make the DT solo ball?

I am actually surprised that Rory is going to use a Callaway driver. He only started using the M2 at the end of last year, I'm sure he must have tried every driver / ball combo out there before selecting the M2.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by raycastleunited on Tue 03 Jan 2017, 11:41 am

GPB wrote:
raycastleunited wrote:I'm no expert in this area, but doesn't Callaway tend to sponsor everything in the bag, head to toe?


Stenson plays Callaway woods and irons, Odyssey Putter and Titleist Golf Ball

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/equipment-insider/whats-bag-open-champ-stenson/

That was my point, Odyssey is Callaway, so Stenson uses Callaway right through the bag. What we are hearing is Rory will use Vokey wedges and a Scotty putter.

Does this mark a change for OEMs? The 2 most marketable golfers in the world (I don't care what super says - Tiger is still the biggest name in golf) are currently "unattached" as far as equipment goes, and appear to be choosing to use the clubs that they like most, instead of negotiating a big deal with a manufacturer and tying themselves to one brand.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 03 Jan 2017, 1:01 pm

raycastleunited wrote:...Does this mark a change for OEMs? The 2 most marketable golfers in the world (I don't care what super says - Tiger is still the biggest name in golf) are currently "unattached" as far as equipment goes, and appear to be choosing to use the clubs that they like most, instead of negotiating a big deal with a manufacturer and tying themselves to one brand.
Not sure it'll be a change to the norm of these sorts of contracts. Woods and McIlroy no longer need big bucks via that sort of endorsement-contract; they can be as picky as they like and if it means a few $million less by picking and choosing, I don't think they will mind that much. I suspect most OEMs would rather they had some of their gear in the bags of those two, rather than none at all.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by raycastleunited on Tue 03 Jan 2017, 3:02 pm

That's just it Navy. At what point does a golfer decide to play the equipment they like best instead of the equipment they get paid most to wear? There's an argument that sacrificing endorsements can earn them more money in the long term if it leads to more success on the course.

Over the years it seems that opportunities to earn money from sponsors seem to have grown exponentially... some golfers look like F1 drivers with the ridiculous number of logos on display. What Woods and McIlroy are doing goes against this trend. Maybe it is just a one off caused by highly unusual circumstances, or maybe it is the start of a trend.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Roller_Coaster on Tue 03 Jan 2017, 3:18 pm

raycastleunited wrote:I am actually surprised that Rory is going to use a Callaway driver. He only started using the M2 at the end of last year, I'm sure he must have tried every driver / ball combo out there before selecting the M2.

He probably got down to a few drivers that were all there or thereabouts on the range with a trackman and is simply having a go under tournament conditions. I'd guess he may game another one before finalising his bag for the Masters.


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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by I'm never wrong on Tue 03 Jan 2017, 3:24 pm

raycastleunited wrote:At what point does a golfer decide to play the equipment they like best instead of the equipment they get paid most to wear?

Good point, Ray. But you can look at this two ways.
(A) Player becomes so good enough he can afford to ditch equipment endorsements as they will win more tournaments with equipment that better suits them. (Not going to just say "better equipment")
(B) Player gets good enough to attract a good equipment endorsement. Sacrifices chances to win much more for security of endorsement.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by McLaren on Tue 03 Jan 2017, 3:43 pm

Ray/Navy


My Callaway comment was meant to be a little flippant, I associate them with making game improvement irons and not the sort of blade you would expect McIlroy would want to use. Even the ones used by their pro's are a bit on the chunky side.

Do any of us drool over a Callaway iron like we would a really nice titliest, mizuno, muira etc one?


I as I said above I agree it is a little surprising to hear Rory will ditch Taylormade woods at the start of the year at least.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Tue 03 Jan 2017, 5:17 pm

GPB wrote:Time will tell, I just don't think the reduction will be that much.  and somewhat offsetting the reduction will be the Zurich classic which will be offering more total points and the Greenbrier Classic, which hopefully will be played.

FWIW, and it is trivial difference but you included the 4 2016 FEX points earned at the Barclays for Hubbard and Streb. Noh missed the cut at Barclays

The new system will help no doubt the players who are inconsistent.  Lots of Missed Cuts but with several top 10, like a Bud Cauley or Graham Delaet.  I think Delaet's last season would result in ~417 pts, about 85% of his last year's total.

Streb and Noh had 1 top 10, and Hubbard had zero top 10s.  

Zurich won't make a difference as points are going to be split and should come out the same total as any other tournament. The team finishing 15th doesn't get 15th place points... they get a spit of 29th and 30th points. But yes... the Greenbrier back in the mix is what I think will get it up to the 360 range.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Tue 03 Jan 2017, 6:30 pm

Ben Hogan Equipment Company has gone belly-up

I am really surprised it took this long.

http://www.geoffshackelford.com/homepage/2017/1/3/rip-the-new-ben-hogan-equipment-company.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Tue 03 Jan 2017, 8:03 pm

GPB... upon further review... IMO the benchmark will be closer to the 375 points for top-125 FE points for 2017.  I ran a sim of all the players from 101-140 on last year's FE REGULAR season FE List... and applied points using the new 2017 point scale. I had to do some rounding, but in most cases rounded to the next highest number or finish position in an attempt to be conservative (raise the estimate).  It came out with 354 as the number for #125.   BUT... adding 5% across the board for the addition of the Greenbrier (which most everyone will likely play) it takes the number to 371+.  And I don't discount the possibility that another player lower than #140 in 2016 could have jumped into 125.

Amazing what the addition of just one extra event in the Greenbrier can do... it could potentially move as many as 20 guys around the top-125 going into that last week up 45 or more points... or it could make very little difference at all if most finish poorly.  

And like you said... depending on how many high finishes, and just how high those finishes are, it really changes the % decrease for 2017.  These 40 players ranged from 9% to 34% decrease, with the average being 80%.  In the guys with the lowest % change, you find the best finishes out of the entire sample.

Anyway... here's the data WITHOUT the addition of the 5% multiplier.

17R = 2017 Projected FE Rank
17P = 2017 Projected FE Points
16R = 2016 Actual FE Rank
16P = 2016 Actual FE Points
% - = Percentage 2017 total points vs 2016

17R - 17P - 16R - 16P - % -
101 - 504 - 101 - 559 - 90% - Brett Stegmaier
102 - 489 - 109 - 535 - 91% - Andrew Loupe
103 - 473 - 107 - 539 - 88% - Cameron Tringale
104 - 470 - 102 - 558 - 84% - Robert Garrigus
105 - 460 - 111 - 526 - 88% - John Huh
106 - 451 - 104 - 550 - 82% - Tyrone Van Aswegen
107 - 451 - 110 - 532 - 85% - Boo Weekley
108 - 441 - 105 - 550 - 80% - Francesco Molinari
109 - 430 - 103 - 553 - 78% - Zach Blair
110 - 430 - 120 - 482 - 89% - Troy Merritt
111 - 423 - 119 - 487 - 87% - Graham DeLaet
112 - 415 - 106 - 545 - 76% - Keegan Bradley
113 - 405 - 118 - 491 - 83% - Derek Fathauer
114 - 402 - 121 - 481 - 84% - Luke List
115 - 402 - 122 - 473 - 85% - Sung Kang
116 - 401 - 108 - 536 - 75% - Sean O'Hair
117 - 387 - 112 - 520 - 74% - Blayne Barber
118 - 380 - 130 - 429 - 89% - Steve Marino
119 - 375 - 133 - 424 - 88% - Morgan Hoffmann
120 - 368 - 135 - 409 - 90% - Bud Cauley
121 - 368 - 128 - 443 - 83% - Scott Stallings
122 - 368 - 124 - 455 - 81% - David Toms
123 - 358 - 113 - 503 - 71% - Mark Hubbard
124 - 358 - 127 - 444 - 81% - Whee Kim
125 - 354 - 114 - 500 - 71% - Ben Crane
126 - 350 - 123 - 459 - 76% - Shawn Stefani
127 - 347 - 136 - 402 - 86% - Chad Collins
128 - 345 - 115 - 500 - 69% - Michael Kim
129 - 339 - 125 - 454 - 75% - Seung-Yul Noh
130 - 337 - 117 - 494 - 68% - Anirban Lahiri
131 - 335 - 129 - 441 - 76% - Nick Taylor
132 - 327 - 116 - 497 - 66% - Kyle Stanley
133 - 325 - 132 - 426 - 76% - Tim Wilkinson
134 - 322 - 126 - 445 - 72% - Matt Jones
135 - 319 - 138 - 399 - 80% - Will Wilcox
136 - 316 - 131 - 428 - 74% - Bronson Burgoon
137 - 306 - 139 - 393 - 78% - Padraig Harrington
138 - 301 - 134 - 412 - 73% - Chris Stroud
139 - 299 - 137 - 400 - 75% - Steve Wheatcroft
140 - 272 - 140 - 384 - 71% - Tyler Aldridge

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Tue 03 Jan 2017, 9:30 pm

raycastleunited wrote:That's just it Navy. At what point does a golfer decide to play the equipment they like best instead of the equipment they get paid most to wear? There's an argument that sacrificing endorsements can earn them more money in the long term if it leads to more success on the course.

Over the years it seems that opportunities to earn money from sponsors seem to have grown exponentially... some golfers look like F1 drivers with the ridiculous number of logos on display. What Woods and McIlroy are doing goes against this trend. Maybe it is just a one off caused by highly unusual circumstances, or maybe it is the start of a trend.
I don't know, but could it be that where recently there was more value to the some top players to go head to toe and through the bag with one manufacturer, that's not the case anymore? Could be piecemealing it out is better value to all involved.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Wed 04 Jan 2017, 1:08 am

Robo, Great minds think alike, yada yada yada.

I downloaded all tournaments from the PGATour for the 2016-17 season.

Don't ask why, it was time consuming. (I found that the OWGR site is the best place to do this). Anyways, it refreshed some of my spreadsheet skills.

I did it for every player that earned FEX points last year.

Turns out Ben Crane is #125 with 351 points.

5 players would fall out of the Top 125

#123 Shawn Stefani to #126
#117 Anirban Lahiri to #128
#115 Michael Kim to #129
#125 Seung Yul Noh to #131
#116 Kyle Stanley to #133

Offset by

#130 Steve Marino to #118
#133 Morgan Hoffmann to #119
#135 Bud Cauley to #120
#128 Scott Stallings to #121
#127 MeenWhee Kim to #124

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Shotrock on Wed 04 Jan 2017, 12:57 pm

Robo - I realize that golf clubs are considerably less sophisticated pieces of equipment than, say, a Formula 1 car ... but I don't understand why a top end professional golfer can't get fully custom made clubs and simply paste the logo of (virtually) any manufacturer on it. Everyone wins.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by raycastleunited on Wed 04 Jan 2017, 2:47 pm

GPB wrote:Ben Hogan Equipment Company has gone belly-up

I am really surprised it took this long.

http://www.geoffshackelford.com/homepage/2017/1/3/rip-the-new-ben-hogan-equipment-company.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I had no idea that a new Hogan company existed. Did any pro's even use their products? Hardly a surprise they've gone bust. Callaway retired the brand years ago, although it seems they like to use the Apex name.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Wed 04 Jan 2017, 3:49 pm

Two time EuroTour winner Wayne Westner shot dead in hostage situation in South Africa.

http://www.golfdigest.com/story/report-two-time-european-tour-winner-wayne-westner-shot-dead-during-alleged-hostage-situation?mbid=social_twitter

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by I'm never wrong on Wed 04 Jan 2017, 3:49 pm

I seem to remember Monty left Callaway, and went to Hogan. Then Callaway bought Hogan and he had to change again.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Wed 04 Jan 2017, 4:38 pm

GPB wrote:I did it for every player that earned FEX points last year.
 Yeah... I came out with the same 5 out and 5 in as you did using 101-140. And it was time consuming even doing that much.  I have the advantage of using the PGAT internals which load just as fast and easy as the OWGR site (with more sort options) but I was only interested in the players who would have been affected around #125 so I did it by PLAYER instead of Tournament.

The way I did it, I was purposely rounding high in almost every case in an attempt to be conservative (and NOT going in and figuring exact point splits for tied positions), so your 351 for Crane vs my 354 is probably closer.  I'm still good with somewhere in the 360-375 range being the benchmark for this season.  

One thing I did notice though... I could go back and look at cumulative FE Points at any time through the season.  And I was surprised to see how little the last event (Wyndham) moved things, only two players. Going into the final week Matt Jones was #124 with 445 points and Whee Kim at #125 with 444. I'm not sure which two players bumped those two... but after the Wyndham Noh was #125 just 10 points higher than Jones (who MC'd) at 454. I bring that up because I was trying to get a feel for how much Greenbrier might have added to these players totals.


Last edited by robopz on Wed 04 Jan 2017, 4:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Wed 04 Jan 2017, 4:45 pm

Shotrock wrote:Robo - I realize that golf clubs are considerably less sophisticated pieces of equipment than, say, a Formula 1 car ... but I don't understand why a top end professional golfer can't get fully custom made clubs and simply paste the logo of (virtually) any manufacturer on it. Everyone wins.
Well... some say Tiger/Nike did that exact thing with Muira blades in the early days until Nike could manufacture suitable irons on their own. I dunno if that's a fact though.  

But today, I very much doubt the manufacturers would go along with that. NOT that ALL the top players clubs are exactly the same as those available off the rack, but the reason a Manufacturer signs a player to play his clubs is to promote a product he can sell to the consumer. Most consumers probably wouldn't have a big problem knowing a Touring pro has a little more customization on the same club he's playing... but it would be BAD NEWS all the way around if it were found out the endorser wasn't playing the actual brand at all.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Wed 04 Jan 2017, 8:50 pm

The FEX simulation shows one other thing. How much harder it is going to be for the players on Major Medicals to retain their tour card.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Wed 04 Jan 2017, 8:56 pm

GPB,
Is that correct? Has the money breakdown changed as well? Or perhaps the money no longer factors in . . . . . . . ?

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Wed 04 Jan 2017, 10:07 pm

Money still is a factor, and Poulter is a little closer to qualifying on money than FEX points.

After 4 out of 10 events, Poults has earned 36% of the cash he needs and 29% of the FEX points he needs

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by robopz on Wed 04 Jan 2017, 10:56 pm

GPB wrote:Money still is a factor, and Poulter is a little closer to qualifying on money than FEX points.

After 4 out of 10 events, Poults has earned 36% of the cash he needs and 29% of the FEX points he needs
I think you meant to say money is still a factor when it comes to things like prior Medical Exemptions... but money is no longer a factor in one gaining eligibility on the Tour via Special Temporary Membership, or via a top-125 money list. Also, NEW medical exemptions will all be based on FE Points only.  As far as I know, the only place money will be important is on a career basis for eligibility onto the Champions Tour... and the "cuts plan" portion of the Players retirement account still has some money benchmarks.

The guys who are in a real pickle are those on Prior Medicals... as like you said... money is now the easier track for most of them, as the FE Points they earn are based on the NEW scale, not the old.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Wed 04 Jan 2017, 11:04 pm

Cash is the still a metric for some other things (albeit minor

http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.132.html

(PGA Championshiop Point list)

Tiebreakers in Exemptions 33 - 37.

But yes, Money is becoming an archaic metric on the PGATour.

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Re: PGA Tour: 2016: The Epilogue: Notes from the Ballwasher

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