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Derby ratings

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Derby ratings Empty Derby ratings

Post by racingnut Mon 06 Jun 2011, 8:21 pm

The race has been and gone,the dust has settled and the numbers have been crunched by Phil Smith(official handicapper).Pour Moi 122,Carlton House 120 are the important ones,making this years renewal the lowest rated since Sir Percys but with the proviso of"the first and third may achieve ratings in the mid to high 120s with natural progression".I must admit i have a lot of time and respect for Mr Smith but i do think that comment may have been optimistic.If you look at the ratings and potential of some of the older horses(some have had around as many runs as the so called top three year olds) then the two aformentioned horses are going to have to run to high 120s to be competitive in the big all aged pots.Workforce is 128 but hes only had a handful of runs and is surely still on the improve,id be shocked if he cant run to a low 130s mark under the right conditions.So you Think is 126,okay hes had loads more experience but hes new to racing on this side of the globe but hes looked absolute top class in a glass.Canford Cliffs 127,Twice Over 125,Rewilding 121,Midday 121,Await the Dawn and St Nicholas Abbey 120 the list goes on.Some of these older animals are going to be improving and developing as quickly as this Classic generation,particularly the ones who had a light or as in some cases a none exsistant 3yo campaign,with that in mind i cant have people going into hyperbole about Pour Moi for the Arc(4/1 in some places!).If everything turns up at Longchamp in October we could witness one of the best renewals of that most marvellous of contests for a very long while.Even if all the above mentioned "stood still ",Pour Moi and Carlton House have to find half a stone or more to become leading players.It doesnt sound much if you say it quick but 7lb at Group 1 level is like a 100m sprinter trying to find half a second.I think people have gotten carried away by the spectacle and visual performance of the race,having analysed it over and over again(ive got to get out more!) i just cant have anything other than this bunch of Classic generation 3yos are an average bunch save one superstar and he didnt even run in the Derby.I think the first real proof will be if any of the contenders meet their elders in the King George as the weight for age allowance in that contest is very attractive towards the younger generation(11lb i think),if the 3yos cant make a go of an allowance like that then they are in for a hard time in the other big races as the weight gap contracts as the season grows older.Its only an opinion but i think we are blessed with a super bunch of older horses,one of the best crops for many a season,and unless ive got it totally wrong or something really does appear from nowhere,then its they,the older ones,who will hold sway.

racingnut

Posts : 601
Join date : 2011-02-12
Age : 57
Location : Middlesbrough

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