Australian Open - Day Ten

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Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by prostaff85 on Tue 24 Jan 2017, 3:08 pm

As no-one has reacted to CC's suggestion to open new AO threads, here's one for Day Ten:

Pliskova vs. Lucic-Baroni - as this seems to be the tournament of the career comebacks, I'll go for LUCIC-BARONI in three

Konta vs. Serena W. - SERENA in two: she won't want to miss out on Sister Act #28

Goffin vs. Dimitrov - GOFFIN in four

Nadal vs. Raonic - RAONIC in four

So predicting a Raonic-Goffin semi and this time Goffin won't let Milos escape like he did at Wimbledon last year!
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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Guest82 on Tue 24 Jan 2017, 4:22 pm

Pliskova in 2. Lucic-Baroni has had a kind draw.

Konta in 2.

Dimitrov in 4.

Nadal in 4.

My predictions are the complete opposite of yours.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Mad for Chelsea on Tue 24 Jan 2017, 4:29 pm

Konta vs Williams could be some match. Konta has been in absolutely red hot form of late, and is playing superbly, but Williams is quite possibly the greatest tennis player of all time, albeit has seemed on the slide recently. Hope Konta brings her A game, and give her a decent chance.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Jermaine2015 on Tue 24 Jan 2017, 5:09 pm

Think Nadal willing licking his lips at the prospect of facing a SHBH in the semis and final should get that far and therefore will give it everything to get passed Raonic. I'd assume Nadal would just run Raonic off the court.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Born Slippy on Tue 24 Jan 2017, 6:03 pm

Pliskova in 2

Serena in 3 - Konta looks unbeatable at the moment but I suspect Serena will suddenly find her very best form and edge through.

Dimitrov in 4 - he's got more weapons than Goffin and moves better.

Nadal in 3 - Raonic has apparently been a bit under the weather and is relying on Rafa being out of sorts anyway.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by theslosty on Tue 24 Jan 2017, 6:19 pm

Bookmakers only have Nadal as a slight favourite against Raonic which I find surprising.

If Rafa comes through tomorrow I make him a big favourite for the title.
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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by lags72 on Tue 24 Jan 2017, 7:41 pm

Rafa already the new title favourite, in my book.

Don't see Raonic stopping him. Stan might - but Rafa still has the edge, I say.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Henman Bill on Tue 24 Jan 2017, 8:37 pm

Well, if we're still talking about favourites

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/mens/winner?selectionName=roger-federer

It's Federer.

Still the clear bookies favourite after the quarter finals (in contradiction of what I predicted yesterday!)

I have to disagree with the bookies here, although if Federer fans are piling on with some emotional bets, they may just be hedging to limit their losses.

I think Stan, still available at 3-1, is better value.

Rafa isn't the favourite because he has an extra match to play but if he beats Raonic he could be the favourite, and in a final against Federer he certainly would be.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by lags72 on Tue 24 Jan 2017, 10:54 pm

I took 10/1 (with Ladbroke's) on Rafa a few days ago - ie after Djoko had gone, but before Murray's exit .

Thought it was generous, and I remain very hopeful.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Born Slippy on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 6:42 am

Henman Bill wrote:Well, if we're still talking about favourites

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/mens/winner?selectionName=roger-federer

It's Federer.

Still the clear bookies favourite after the quarter finals (in contradiction of what I predicted yesterday!)

I have to disagree with the bookies here, although if Federer fans are piling on with some emotional bets, they may just be hedging to limit their losses.

I think Stan, still available at 3-1, is better value.

Rafa isn't the favourite because he has an extra match to play but if he beats Raonic he could be the favourite, and in a final against Federer he certainly would be.

Fed beat Stan 64 63 61 last time they met at a hard court slam. Stan has never beaten him off clay. Fed has to be a major favourite in that match. I think Stan will make it closer this time but I'd be extremely surprised if Fed doesn't win in 4 sets or less. I can't really see how Stan will make an impact on his serve.

Williams beat Konta easily I see. Very impressive. With Lucic-Baroni also winning, Vandeweghe (at 25) is a full 9 years younger than any of the other Sfists.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Born Slippy on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 6:45 am

We could easily have Williams v Williams and Fed v Nadal as the two finals. How very mid noughties!

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Guest82 on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 9:22 am

Henman Bill wrote:Well, if we're still talking about favourites

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/mens/winner?selectionName=roger-federer

It's Federer.

Still the clear bookies favourite after the quarter finals (in contradiction of what I predicted yesterday!)

I have to disagree with the bookies here, although if Federer fans are piling on with some emotional bets, they may just be hedging to limit their losses.

I think Stan, still available at 3-1, is better value.

Rafa isn't the favourite because he has an extra match to play but if he beats Raonic he could be the favourite, and in a final against Federer he certainly would be.

Fed was already in the semi finals at this point. I expect once Rafa beats Raonic he will go favourite.

Especially considering he has the "easy" semi-final.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Born Slippy on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 9:34 am

I'm yet to see anything to convince me this version of Rafa can live with this version of Fed. Fed's serve and backhand look so much stronger now than when Rafa beat him here in 09. Even if Rafa wins, I'd make Roger heavy favourite for the title from here onwards.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Guest82 on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 10:47 am

I think Rafa v Fed comes down to match up and mental demons. I can't see Fed ever beating Rafa in a big match again.

Choke from Raonic there. That's Rafa in the semi-final.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by lags72 on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 11:04 am

Born Slippy wrote:I'm yet to see anything to convince me this version of Rafa can live with this version of Fed. Fed's serve and backhand look so much stronger now than when Rafa beat him here in 09. Even if Rafa wins, I'd make Roger heavy favourite for the title from here onwards.

You truly mean every word of this, Born Slippy ...... ??

- that Rafa would not live with Fed in their respective forms ...?
- that Fed is heavy favourite .....??


I just don't see it that way - certainly nowhere near as clear-cut as you put it.

But each to his own of course. If we got our predictions right every time, sport would lose a huge chunk of its fascination & entertainment factor.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Born Slippy on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 11:09 am

I'll be honest, I've only seen Rafa against Zverev. He played ok but nothing special. Has he been much better in the other matches?

I stand by what I say about Fed though. His game now is better equipped to deal with Rafa than earlier in his career. He's tactically far stronger and I don't think there are the same weaknesses for Rafa to expose. You must remember all those frustrating matches in the mid-00s when Fed would just sit back and engage in baseline rallies with Rafa, seemingly in the stubborn belief he would win? He won't make that mistake now.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Haddie-nuff on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 11:13 am

Born Slippy wrote:I'll be honest, I've only seen Rafa against Zverev. He played ok but nothing special. Has he been much better in the other matches?

I stand by what I say about Fed though. His game now is better equipped to deal with Rafa than earlier in his career. He's tactically far stronger and I don't think there are the same weaknesses for Rafa to expose. You must remember all those frustrating matches in the mid-00s when Fed would just sit back and engage in baseline rallies with Rafa, seemingly in the stubborn belief he would win? He won't make that mistake now.



If you were/are watching the match v Raonic you would be choking on your words

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by shivfan on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 11:15 am

Mad for Chelsea wrote:Konta vs Williams could be some match. Konta has been in absolutely red hot form of late, and is playing superbly, but Williams is quite possibly the greatest tennis player of all time, albeit has seemed on the slide recently. Hope Konta brings her A game, and give her a decent chance.
Konta played well, but it was Serena who brought her A game, and when she does that, the American is unbeatable....
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Three mid-30s in the semis...the old-timers still have it!
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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by shivfan on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 11:16 am

Born Slippy wrote:Pliskova in 2

Serena in 3 - Konta looks unbeatable at the moment but I suspect Serena will suddenly find her very best form and edge through.

And Serena did indeed...the surprise was that Pliskova went out.

Can Venus overcome the power of young Coco to make it a Sister Act in the final?
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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Haddie-nuff on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 11:23 am

So Rafa doubters where are you now???

Congratulations Rafa you are back Very Happy

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Born Slippy on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 11:24 am

Haddie-nuff wrote:
Born Slippy wrote:I'll be honest, I've only seen Rafa against Zverev. He played ok but nothing special. Has he been much better in the other matches?

I stand by what I say about Fed though. His game now is better equipped to deal with Rafa than earlier in his career. He's tactically far stronger and I don't think there are the same weaknesses for Rafa to expose. You must remember all those frustrating matches in the mid-00s when Fed would just sit back and engage in baseline rallies with Rafa, seemingly in the stubborn belief he would win? He won't make that mistake now.



If you were/are watching the  match v Raonic you would be choking on your words
Certainly a very strong win. First grand slam SF since Oz 14 I think? Fantastic for him. Not sure why I'd be choking though if I was watching. I'm guessing he played well today then?

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by laverfan on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 11:27 am

Good to see Nadal in a Slam SF. clap 3 x 30+ players in 2017 SFs. thumbsup


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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Born Slippy on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 11:30 am

laverfan wrote:Good to see Nadal in a Slam SF. clap 3 x 30+ players in 2017 SFs.  thumbsup

6 including the ladies - 3 over 35!

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by sirfredperry on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 11:35 am

Suggestion that Raonic was injured a bit towards the end but still a terrific win by Rafa. No reason to think Rafa can't win it and he certainly has the easier semi. However, Dimi appears to be playing well and could prove more of a handful for Rafa than Raonic did.
With the top two out, this was a great opportunity for the big Canadian. He should, clearly, have got the second set.
Not easy to call the other semi. Rog so rarely loses night matches. But everyone knows just how devastating Stan the Man can be if on top form.
As for the women, an all-Williams final is very much on the cards.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by mthierry on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 1:01 pm

For me, if they both make it to the finals, I'd make Federer the favourite. He's looked fantastic all tournament - really devastating at times. Theoretically, he should have lost so much at his age, but he's striking the ball as well as I can remember and the feline agility looks razor sharp.
Nadal is miles from his best career form. His forehand is not nearly as devastating as it used to be. He's noticeably not as quick and explosive around the court.

Purely going by the form they've displayed, Federer would only lose to Nadal if his demons in this match-up gets in his head.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Henman Bill on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 1:13 pm

I was watching a bit of Zverev-Rafa and Rafa did not do a lot. If Zverev had gone for a few more shots and made them, it could have been a different story. It looked like Rafa played quite average, and passive, and waited for the errors, and got them. I think 10/1 on Rafa earlier in the tournament was quite reasonable.

However now, with the easier semi final and a SHBH finalist, Rafa has to be the favourite for me at the moment. Bookies now agree.

Dimitrov doesn't have the ability to blast Rafa off the court. Doesn't have the power and weapons to hurt.

Historically, Roger has lot a fair few night matches at the Australian Open. The night matches the court seems to play slower and always at the AO the court looks fast early in the tournament and by the end it's slower, perhaps because the semi and final are generally night matches.

Looking at his career statistics page, I see Roger's record at the Austalian Open semi final stage is won 5 lost 7, by far worse that his semi record at other slams. I should think a lot of those were night matches.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Henman Bill on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 1:17 pm

The other thing it's time to bring up (and sorry if this has been mentioned already this tournament, but I've been an intermittent visitor) is that a Rafa title win I believe would make him the first man in the open era to win each slam twice in his career. This would be quite a big achievement in my book.

Federer and Djokovic still need 1 more French to achieve this.

Laver did achieve it, but only using amateur, second tier slams pre open era.

I hope that's all right. Someone please correct me if I'd forgotten anything as don't have time to double check the facts, but just from memory I think that's right.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Henman Bill on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 1:19 pm

I see Guest 82 and Prostaff split 2-2 the duel of opposite predictions. Guest 82 seems to be the men's tennis expert and Prostaff the women's expert. At least for today.

Interesting all the 30+ players on both men's and women's. Is it 6 out of 8 players over 30? And about four of them well over 30. Again, a bit busy now, don't have time to check and post the actual numbers but seomthing like that.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Born Slippy on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 1:20 pm

The Oz Open SF are always at night I think. Off the top of my head, the 7 defeats are Safin, Novak x3, Rafa x2 and Murray. I wouldn't read too much into those results being at night - it's a pretty good collection of players!

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by sirfredperry on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 1:52 pm

Yes, I seem to have been way out with my comment about Fed rarely losing at night ! HB makes a good point about no one winning every slam at least twice in the Open Era. Of course, Rafa has actually been stuck on one win at the AO for some years, while so dominating the FO that hardly anyone else has got a look in.
With Stan, Rafa and Rog over 30 already and Murray and Djoko turning 30 before the French, it's highly likely that ALL the Slams this year will be won by 30-somethings.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Jermaine2015 on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 1:59 pm

I'm split between the all Swiss semi final TBH. Stan is on a 12 match unbeaten streak from New York to Melbourne. Even looking back to 2014, 2017 Stan is fitter and playing more sensibly. Roger has looked great thus far but Stan is way better than Berdych. Roger has to serve and move Stan around. If Roger drops short Stan will muller him. At this stage Stan is the known quantity and Roger is the unknown.

As for Nadal and Grigor. Nadal will see it as a turn up to facing either Swiss. Nadal makes Roger think too much hence Nadal is always the favourite when they play. But if it's Stan vs Nadal I'd back Stan to take Nadal apart.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Guest82 on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 2:06 pm

I don't watch lots of womens tennis, so I will take the plaudit of mens tennis expert.

I wonder how highly we should value the double career slam, if Rafa achieves it now.

Dimitrov has a chance of beating Nadal, he's playing well and unbeaten this season. I still heavily favour Rafa, but you never know.

If Fed beats Stan he loses to Rafa. If Stan wins then we have a competitive final. But, I really want Fed to get 18.

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Haddie-nuff on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 2:25 pm


But if it's Stan vs Nadal I'd back Stan to take Nadal apart.

laughing we can least count on one poster to be predictable
:






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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Jermaine2015 on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 2:30 pm

Haddie-nuff wrote:
But if it's Stan vs Nadal I'd back Stan to take Nadal apart.

laughing  we can least count on one poster to be predictable
:





Predicable? Stan took Nadal out in 2014 and Stan is better now whereas Nadal is worst now

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Haddie-nuff on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 3:17 pm

Yes I saw that this morning how remiss of me Rolling Eyes

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Born Slippy on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 3:21 pm

Jermaine2015 wrote:
Haddie-nuff wrote:
But if it's Stan vs Nadal I'd back Stan to take Nadal apart.

laughing  we can least count on one poster to be predictable
:





Predicable? Stan took Nadal out in 2014 and Stan is better now whereas Nadal is worst now

Rafa was clearly injured in 2014 though, so I wouldn't read that much into that match. Since then Rafa has destroyed Stan three times and Stan has edged out Rafa twice. I'm also unconvinced Stan is better now than he was in 2014. I can see Stan winning that final but there's no way he will "take Nadal apart".

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Jermaine2015 on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 3:23 pm

Born Slippy wrote:
Jermaine2015 wrote:
Haddie-nuff wrote:
But if it's Stan vs Nadal I'd back Stan to take Nadal apart.

laughing  we can least count on one poster to be predictable
:





Predicable? Stan took Nadal out in 2014 and Stan is better now whereas Nadal is worst now

Rafa was clearly injured in 2014 though, so I wouldn't read that much into that match. Since then Rafa has destroyed Stan three times and Stan has edged out Rafa twice. I'm also unconvinced Stan is better now than
he was in 2014. I can see Stan winning that final but there's no way he will "take Nadal apart".
There was nothing wrong with Nadal in the first set. Stan smashed him off the court. But yeah downplay Stan's achievements...

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Jermaine2015 on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 3:24 pm

Haddie-nuff wrote:Yes I saw that this morning how remiss of me Rolling Eyes
Yeah there's me forgetting that Raonic is actually a 3 slam winner and Stan is yet to win a major...

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by laverfan on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 3:27 pm

Henman Bill wrote:Laver did achieve it, but only using amateur, second tier slams pre open era.

I take exception to this. laughing Bring in three slams on Grass, and we can start a new GOAT argument. kiss boxing

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Josiah Maiestas on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 3:28 pm

Nadal winning a grand slam playing bottlers every round would be just like him. Please Grigor or Stan get the job done cause we know Rog won't.
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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Haddie-nuff on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 3:33 pm

Sure signs Rafa is back here comes the needle .. sharpen the knives boys coz my Dad's bigger than your Dad nah nah

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Josiah Maiestas on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 3:38 pm

He won't get any respect beating a 35 year old just back from injury (who bends over against him in slams) that's for sure Haddie.
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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Haddie-nuff on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 3:58 pm

He would and never has had the respect from this forum whether he went out on court on a
pair of crutches.. but you know what JM your opinion means as much now as it always has done.. So why do you think that the 35 year old gained respect from beating an opponent with dodgy knees.. and who himself is back from injury... selective memory I guess Erm

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by CaledonianCraig on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 4:18 pm

Rafa has always had my respect Haddie. Today was a big obstacle for him to overcome against an opponent that always performs well in Melbourne. I always felt Rafa had the game to break down Milos and that is how it panned out.

I'd be very surprised if he does not beat Dimitrov in the semi and if he faces Roger in the final then the title is his. If he faces Stan it is more marginal as Stan's game matches up better to him. Whatever happens now though it has been a great step forward for Rafa.
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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Haddie-nuff on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 4:28 pm

Yes CC I apologise I know you have.
His match against Raonic was the best I have seen him play for 2 yrs.. he was incredible and before anyone says Milos was injured I saw no sign of it.. other than he went of court .. I know he has a cold but he played the best match Ive seen him play.. he was at last watchable . Rafa, if he plays like he did.. particularly in the 3rd set there is going to be some egg on a few faces

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by JuliusHMarx on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 5:10 pm

Haddie-nuff wrote:he was at last watchable .

Poor old Milos. He would and never has had the respect from this forum Wink

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Haddie-nuff on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 5:16 pm

See you still have to resort to the lowest form of wit JHM..somethings never change on dear old 606

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by CaledonianCraig on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 5:22 pm

Rafa, in this form, goes favourite for the French Open and so from nowhere in around four months time he could be one short of Fed's slam total.
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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by Haddie-nuff on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 5:26 pm

WOW CC only a World NO 1 fan would dare to stick his neck out that far lol Wink

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Re: Australian Open - Day Ten

Post by JuliusHMarx on Wed 25 Jan 2017, 5:31 pm

Where have you been H-N? I know you've been a tennis fan for many a year. I thought you'd have still been following & posting, even without Rafa being around much.

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