Australian Open - Day Eleven

The schedule on RLA for tomorrow:

CoCo Vandeweghe vs. Venus Williams - this must be one of her last chances, I think VENUS will get the job done in three sets

Mirjana Lucic-Baroni vs. Serena Williams - not sure if Lucic-Baroni has recovered from her injury but I am afraid it wouldn't help much: SERENA to win in two sets

Roger Federer vs. Stan Wawrinka - despite the daunting prospect of facing Rafa in a Slam, I think Federer will use clever tactics against Wawrinka, taking time away from him and not allowing him to play the groundstrokes that have brough him so much success against the other "Big Four" members (and even a few wins against Federer on clay). FEDERER in three sets.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/fedex-head-2-head/roger-federer-vs-stan-wawrinka/F324/W367
Fed leads the head to head 18-3.
All three of Stan's wins on clay.
Still, I think he has better chances than that would indicate, I mean he has one two slams since Federer last did.

I think it's 50/50.

I agree, Fed vs Stan feels close to 50/50 to me also.  I am probably leaning towards Fed a little, but just ever so slightly.

Fed matches up really well against Stan, and in this year's presumably faster conditions that should work even better for him.  So that speaks in his favor.  On the other hand, he has been out of action for six months and is pushing 36, and I think it will have to show somewhere at some point.  I do think, though, that it is mostly on Fed's racquet so to speak.  If he plays as well as he can, he will probably win.

Prostaff - You got the women's semis spot on! Not easy to predict Stan-Rog. Interesting that Stan's only wins against Fed have come on clay. At least we can forecast that a Swiss will make the final.

Roger will win this relatively comfortably. I'm going for 75 62 61. Fedal final incoming!

Born Slippy wrote:Roger will win this relatively comfortably. I'm going for 75 62 61. Fedal final incoming!

Crappy mistake by Stan to lose the first set at 75. BS, good call on first set.

Stan needs to drag Fed into a grinding five set marathon. And then he can take comfort from the fact that the third oldest player in the entire ATP 100 rankings will eventually tire .....

Wawrinka is warming up Federer for the Final. What a damp squib so far!

prostaff85 wrote:

CoCo Vandeweghe vs. Venus Williams - this must be one of her last chances, I think VENUS will get the job done in three sets

Mirjana Lucic-Baroni vs. Serena Williams - not sure if Lucic-Baroni has recovered from her injury but I am afraid it wouldn't help much: SERENA to win in two sets

Great call!

The Williams sisters will play another Grand Slam final, after all these years....

Not bad, for a couple of sisters from the poor, rough Compton neighbourhood of Los Angeles.

laverfan wrote:Wawrinka is warming up Federer for the Final. What a damp squib so far!

Presumably you missed the first set ....??

More or less spot on for 2 sets but doesn't appear Stan has faded in the third as I expected. Has Fed dropped his level? Fortunately, he has a long rest before the final so even 4 sets won't hurt him in the long run.

Anyone able to provide an update? That set ended in the blink of an eye. Did Fed just throw it to conserve energy?

Combination of things :

- Stan playing FAR more freely and powerfully since the MTO
- Fed's focus, court-craft and footwork have dipped
- Fed now missing routine b/hands and volleys

Momentum hugely with Stan right now ....

Thanks Lags. Hopefully Feds focus just slipped and he will be back on it in this set!

Stan has broken Fed three times in succession.

lags72 wrote:Stan has broken Fed three times in succession.

Your five-set prediction may come true.

Not a prediction : more like my personal advice to Stan (which I'm sure he appreciates )

Stan now hitting the ball very hard again. Fed under pressure to contain his give-it-everything strategy

Fed now going wide with so many of his shots that were clean winners in recent rounds.

This does have all the signs of going the distance.

Stan will serve to square it at 2 sets all.

The transformation in Stan's play is UNREAL.

Into a decider.

Stan's MTO will likely win him the match. How ironic !!

Federer should still win this. Just keep ahead with his serve and Stan will eventually give

He might regret going 5 in the final though

Good to see you, T2.

We've so often seen swings of play and drama following MTO's in various matches.

Can't recall anything quite as strange as what happened in those last two sets.

All the hitting power & momentum now with Stan.

Hi Lf. Nice to see you back.
Unless roger is actually hurt. That Mto will be to his benefit. Clever stuff

No obvious sign of any injury for Fed. Just a severe dip in his play. He is in major trouble.

Maybe lags.
I dunno I've seen this script too many times. If fed gets an early break it'll be quick

Fed is almost looking mentally drained by the roller-coaster mood now enveloping this match. Can't say I've seen him look like that in a long time - even before the layoff.

Stan barely missing anything now.

Just has to dig in on his own service like that. Wait for 4-3 then Stan will tighten

temporary21 wrote:Just has to dig in on his own service like that. Wait for 4-3 then Stan will tighten

Maybe before he had won 3 Slams.

Not any more.

Keeps digging in though. Admittedly if Stan holds his serve easily it will be hard to keep doing that

Born Slippy wrote:Roger will win this relatively comfortably. I'm going for 75 62 61. Fedal final incoming!

Change the third set from 6-1 to 1-6 and it was almost spot on.

The first two sets were a bit early in my time zone. I joined the match at 1-2 in the third. Things when downhill for Fed as soon as I showed up!

My take on it is that this is a low quality match for a slam semi final, and even quite boring.  Where are the younger generation to take advantage? It just shows you what a golden period we had in about 2008 - 2012, that even by 2017 nothing has happened to surpass it. I am glad I watched a lot of matches in 2008 - 2012 and followed it more closely at that time.

There it is

Dino and Rafa though must think they've a chance now though in the final

I was just looking up if we had

Federer-Nadal

and

Williams-Williams

before as the two slam finals back to back in the same year in the same tournament.

I make it Wimbledon 2008 only.

Venus won 7-5 6-4.

Pathetic crowd. Wildly cheering a double fault like Federer is an 18-year-old local underdog in a Davis Cup match. Swear this is one of the reasons I'd like to see Federer retire. Can't stand how crowds fawn over him despite all he's achieved. I remember how ridiculous it was when he played Raonic at Wimbledon.

So have people been wildly exaggerating how well Roger has been playing, or did his level completely crash today?

As I said I didn't watch sets 1 and 2 but the rest of it I can't remember Roger looking as ineffective as that. Power and snap gone from the groundshots, forehand continuing on the decline, errors, movement slow.

Crowds are getting like that in sport a lot now though. There's this this expectation they can do what they want because they paid money

I only watched the nishikori match. He was very good in that

It was there i pencilled him to win this. I'm less sure now though. Sounds like he's started to look his age a bit

Federer plays like that against Nadal in the final, he loses. Think he'll step it up though.

Hmm
I wonder what that's taken out of him, and if he really has got a stiff back

If dimi Rafa is quick either way. They might fancy it now...

I can't actually see the match. Just the pictures BBC shows

In those he looks knackered.

mthierry wrote:Pathetic crowd.  Wildly cheering a double fault like Federer is an 18-year-old local underdog in a Davis Cup match. Swear this is one of the reasons I'd like to see Federer retire. Can't stand how crowds fawn over him despite all he's achieved. I remember how ridiculous it was when he played Raonic at Wimbledon.

And you came on here just to say this

Here's a suggestion : Have you perhaps ever thought about just watching the tennis - rather than worrying about what the crowd may, or may not, be doing.....?

Is your assessment of a sporting contest really determined more by the manner of reaction of a totally random collection of people in the stands than by the performance and ability of some of the greatest athletes on the planet ?

Then again, perhaps you're more a crowd-watcher than a tennis aficionado.

Ok so it wasn't his back it was his upper leg. A leg thing as he says.

If I was dimi right now. I'd be thinking all those times he was called baby fed, and overrated

He could put all that in the trash in two matches time

Greetings Everyone,

When I left for the office, Federer was outclassing Stan in all facets. When I arrived at work, I see that he was pushed to five, with the number 17 seed in need of a medical timeout in the fifth.

For me, this does not bode well for the final, ESPECIALLY if he has to face Rafa. In fact, I will make Rafa a strong favourite given his record against Federer and the fact that he can grind Roger into the ground by bruising, attritional rallies.