The 2017 Majors

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The 2017 Majors

Post by JAS on Mon 06 Feb 2017, 9:21 pm

After Hideki's and Sergio's winning weekend we have an ever increasing list of potential winners of the big ones in 2017. How do we see things panning out and who will be engraved on the big ones at the end of the year?? I'lll have a stab at

Masters: Matsuyama (because he's too good not to and a first major is surely inevitable anyway)
U.S. Open: McIlroy (because QH was the site of his spectacular 1st PGA tour victory, expect the course to be tougher than for the Fargo but even so)
The Open: Garcia (because it's been 19 years since he won the British amateur at Saunton, he has came close the last time it was in Lancs, and even closer to the last guy who won at Birkdale though not at Birkdale, like Stenson at Troon, way way overdue.
USPGA: Stenson (because he's too good to be a Todd Hamilton who only won at Troon).

Yup that leaves out Day, DJ, Speith, Rose, Scott and a host of others but that's the way I see it.

How do do others see things panning out??

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by kwinigolfer on Mon 06 Feb 2017, 9:26 pm

JAS, thumbsup

But: US Open @ Erin Hills, not QH, which will stage the PGA. Like your logic (and selections) but not your location!

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by JAS on Mon 06 Feb 2017, 10:08 pm

Ah!! Good spot Kwini, not much of a leap to swap Henrik and Rory around in that case.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by pedro on Mon 06 Feb 2017, 10:24 pm

No Woods?

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by pedro on Mon 06 Feb 2017, 10:28 pm

Hideki is a good bet for Augusta. Spieth also seems to be lurking.
And at current form I wouldn't rule out Garcia or Stenson for any of the Majors.
Rory is always a question mark, it always depends which Rory shows up.
Yet, I wouldn't be surprised if one of the young gun Americans like JT ran away with 1-2 majors.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by JAS on Mon 06 Feb 2017, 10:38 pm

pedro wrote:No Woods?

Augusta has plenty of woods, think Quail Hollow has a few trees around it too :-p

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by pedro on Mon 06 Feb 2017, 10:47 pm

JAS wrote:
pedro wrote:No Woods?

Augusta has plenty of woods, think Quail Hollow has a few trees around it too :-p
Maybe we'll see him at the 2018 Masters champions dinner when Sergio serves fried chicken... Run

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by puligny on Mon 06 Feb 2017, 10:54 pm

No Tommy Fleetwood! You're obviously not taking this seriously! Got to be a shoe in at Birkdale - he can probably walk there!
Need to think about the rest, but reckon LW must be good for a couple.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by pedro on Mon 06 Feb 2017, 11:07 pm

Chris Wood?
Gary Woodland?
Woody Austin?
Patrick Reed then?

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by JAS on Mon 06 Feb 2017, 11:21 pm

pedro wrote:
JAS wrote:
pedro wrote:No Woods?

Augusta has plenty of woods, think Quail Hollow has a few trees around it too :-p
Maybe we'll see him at the 2018 Masters champions dinner when Sergio serves fried chicken... Run


You know my sense of humour better than I do PMSL!!!

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by super_realist on Tue 07 Feb 2017, 8:32 am

There's always someone unfancied who seems to get in and around these tournaments. I prefer seeing an underdog doing well, perhaps one of the lesser known Brits might do well this year.

I would think it's short odds of Willett missing the cut at Augusta. Like Webb Simpson, Bradley, Dufner etc he's been one of the worst major winners in recent history.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by puligny on Tue 07 Feb 2017, 8:33 am

Masters: Rory
US Open: DJ
Open: Henrik
PGA: Rory

Ask me again tomorrow!

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by I'm never wrong on Tue 07 Feb 2017, 10:59 am

super_realist wrote:There's always someone unfancied who seems to get in and around these tournaments.

Let me know who that will be Super. Wink The few times I go into a betting shop is for the Majors. The odds are usually too short on the big names for my liking, so I try and pick an outsider who will do well as an each way bet.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by super_realist on Tue 07 Feb 2017, 11:15 am

It's the only time I bet too INW. I won a fair bit on Schwartzel and did well out of the likes of Kjeldsen and even fat Carl Petersen. Always worth a few each way in and around the 100-1 - 150/1 range.

I used to bet on Michael Campbell all the time, and then the one time I didn't, he won a bloody major.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by I'm never wrong on Tue 07 Feb 2017, 11:22 am

Best one I had was Chris DiMarco in 2005.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by sirbenson on Tue 07 Feb 2017, 11:37 am

Have people not learned their lesson with Garcia yet?

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by I'm never wrong on Tue 07 Feb 2017, 12:52 pm

These are the type players I would look at for my mid priced bets. Noren, Reed, Grace and Koepka. These I expect would be 10 to 50-1 range. (Not that I know anything about odds. They seem to have got shorter these days). Then I would want a wildcard which would be 100-1 plus. I don't put much on, so it's not going to change my life.




PS. Please bet responsibly. When the fun stops, stop. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by super_realist on Tue 07 Feb 2017, 1:05 pm

Odds are weird things. Scummer Woods is laughable short odds for The Masters

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by Davie on Tue 07 Feb 2017, 1:22 pm

My online bookmaker of choice has some strange odds at the moment for the Masters!

Spieth is favourite at 7/1 (far too short for me)
Some value for the likes of Justin Thomas at 28/1 and Patrick Reed at 40/1
Tiger at 50/1 (same as the likes of Schwarzl, Casey and Rahm)
Big Shane at 125/1 and Dufner at 150/1

And what has Jamie Donaldson done to be down at the bottom of the list at 500/1 alongside Langer and Couples!

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by kwinigolfer on Tue 07 Feb 2017, 1:36 pm

Donaldson especially poor value considering he's not qualified.
I fancy King Louis . . . . . ! 40/1. 2s 6d e.w. for me.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by I'm never wrong on Wed 08 Feb 2017, 10:21 am

After Davie remarked on the odds, I have gone and put my money where my mouth is. My long shot is Bernd Wiesberger.
With five players picked, my odds of all of them winning are about the same as the Euro Lottery, with a much lower return. Sad Sad

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by raycastleunited on Wed 08 Feb 2017, 11:38 am

Davie wrote:My online bookmaker of choice has some strange odds at the moment for the Masters!

Spieth is favourite at 7/1 (far too short for me)
Some value for the likes of Justin Thomas at 28/1 and Patrick Reed at 40/1
Tiger at 50/1 (same as the likes of Schwarzl, Casey and Rahm)
Big Shane at 125/1 and Dufner at 150/1

And what has Jamie Donaldson done to be down at the bottom of the list at 500/1 alongside Langer and Couples!

Masters odds, the website I looked at has Schwartzel at 80-1. Willett also 80-1 which is terrible, players like Wang and Olesen at 250-1 are much more likely to win if you ask me. The odds for Tiger will always be poor... there are loads of people who will continue to back him regardless.

I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and back myself. I've always felt Augusta suits my game. Am checking the post daily for the invitation.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by pedro on Wed 08 Feb 2017, 1:00 pm

Grace would be a good shot for next Saffer Major winner.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by McLaren on Wed 08 Feb 2017, 1:16 pm

Kwini/Davie

I guess Donaldson's 500-1 odds reflect that he needs to win a PGAT event to even get an invitation.


As for 2017 winners, I will go for

Masters: Justin Thomas
US Open: Spieth
Open: Dustin
PGA: Rory

No reason other than 3 of them are the best players in the world and the other one is on a hot streak.
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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by super_realist on Wed 08 Feb 2017, 1:28 pm

Rev Jesus Watson is always a good shout for the Masters, even though I can't stand the a-hole.
Koepka is someone who is definitely worth E/W at 40/1.

Hilarious that 9C is also 40/1.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by kwinigolfer on Wed 08 Feb 2017, 2:52 pm

[quote="McLaren"]Kwini/Davie

I guess Donaldson's 500-1 odds reflect that he needs to win a PGAT event to even get an invitation.


That's ridiculous, why would anyone bet on someone who's not in the field and not likely to be. Might as well choose super, he seems to be in a rich vein of form, better than Donaldson anyway.

I'll go for:
Masters: King Louis e.w.
US Open: Spieth
Open Champ: Kaymer e.w.
PGA Champ: McIlroy

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by GPB on Wed 08 Feb 2017, 5:21 pm

Notable Active Players (under age 50) without a major with 40 or more attempts


75 times -- Lee Westwood
73 times -- Sergio Garcia
67 times -- Steve Stricker
64 times -- Robert Allemby
57 times -- Thomas Bjorn
55 times -- Stuart Appleby
53 times -- Ian Poulter
53 times -- Luke Donald
44 times -- Matt Kuchar
41 times -- Hunter Mahan

I think Jay Haas holds the dubious record of most majors played without a win at 80 majors.  Definitely within reach of Westy and Sergio.  Monty is at 75 majors but I don't think Monty has 5 more majors in him.


Last edited by GPB on Wed 08 Feb 2017, 6:09 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Added Allenby and Appleby to the list)

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by kwinigolfer on Wed 08 Feb 2017, 5:53 pm

Interesting list, GPB,
Only Garcia, Kuchar, Stricker and Westwood in The Masters, Bjorn, Donald, Mahan & Poults not in any 2017 Major yet.

(Wonder if Bill Haas will catch his Dad? Only 29 played so far, but should add four more this year.)

Allenby (64) would be 3rd on that list.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by GPB on Wed 08 Feb 2017, 6:06 pm

Yep, missed Hawaii 5-0 and his mate Stuart Appleby.

Appleby is at 55 majors played w/o a win, has not played a major since Masters-2011.

Appleby Missed the cut in 8 consecutive majors played. Probably close to a record for someone that never won a major.

I will edit the above list.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by kwinigolfer on Wed 08 Feb 2017, 6:41 pm

Wasn't quibbling GPB, just figured you might not have considered them notable!
One or two others in the 40's but Sergio & Lee will take a lot of catching.
Interesting piece on pgatour.com on Bones Mackay's knee replacements; made me realise I followed them both the first tournament (major anyway) they teamed up together, PB US Open in 1992.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by super_realist on Wed 08 Feb 2017, 7:53 pm

McLaren wrote:Kwini/Davie

I guess Donaldson's 500-1 odds reflect that he needs to win a PGAT event to even get an invitation.


As for 2017 winners, I will go for

Masters: Justin Thomas
US Open: Spieth
Open: Dustin
PGA: Rory



No reason other than 3 of them are the best players in the world and the other one is on a hot streak.

I'm surprised you didn't go for Day as #1 to win all 4 given you have a penchant for not using your imagination.

I wouldn't put Spieth or Dustin above Matsuyama or Stenson at present.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by Davie on Wed 08 Feb 2017, 8:07 pm

GPB wrote:Notable Active Players (under age 50) without a major with 40 or more attempts


75 times -- Lee Westwood
73 times -- Sergio Garcia
67 times -- Steve Stricker
64 times -- Robert Allemby
57 times -- Thomas Bjorn
55 times -- Stuart Appleby
53 times -- Ian Poulter
53 times -- Luke Donald
44 times -- Matt Kuchar
41 times -- Hunter Mahan

I think Jay Haas holds the dubious record of most majors played without a win at 80 majors.  Definitely within reach of Westy and Sergio.  Monty is at 75 majors but I don't think Monty has 5 more majors in him.

I wouldn't consider any of them as contenders with the possible exception of Sergio

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by Be_the_ball on Wed 08 Feb 2017, 9:01 pm

Westwood was second in last years Masters, he's not dead and buried yet! Sure didn't Clarkie win one while he was 68 years old!!

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by SetupDeterminesTheMotion on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 7:44 am

Clarkie could putt though, Westy is terrible.

& you need to putt well at Augusta.
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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by super_realist on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 7:45 am

Westwood has finished second twice at Augusta. He can putt

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by SetupDeterminesTheMotion on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 8:55 am

& if he had putted well, he would have won both.
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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by navyblueshorts on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 11:30 am

SetupDeterminesTheMotion wrote:& if he had putted well, he would have won both.
No, he wouldn't. Mickleson won, hit a ridiculous shot on 13 in the final round and if Westwood had shot in the 60s last round, he'd have been the first ever to go sub-70 in all four rounds there. As S_R says, he can putt, but don't let his actual record get in the way of the myth.
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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by raycastleunited on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 11:56 am

navyblueshorts wrote:
SetupDeterminesTheMotion wrote:& if he had putted well, he would have won both.
No, he wouldn't. Mickleson won, hit a ridiculous shot on 13 in the final round and if Westwood had shot in the 60s last round, he'd have been the first ever to go sub-70 in all four rounds there. As S_R says, he can putt, but don't let his actual record get in the way of the myth.

He can't chip though

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by raycastleunited on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 12:00 pm

GPB wrote:Notable Active Players (under age 50) without a major with 40 or more attempts


75 times -- Lee Westwood
73 times -- Sergio Garcia
67 times -- Steve Stricker
64 times -- Robert Allemby
57 times -- Thomas Bjorn
55 times -- Stuart Appleby
53 times -- Ian Poulter
53 times -- Luke Donald
44 times -- Matt Kuchar
41 times -- Hunter Mahan

I think Jay Haas holds the dubious record of most majors played without a win at 80 majors.  Definitely within reach of Westy and Sergio.  Monty is at 75 majors but I don't think Monty has 5 more majors in him.

Interesting to note that 3 of the top 10 are English golfers. I wonder where Casey sits on this list. Is there something about the English mentality which translates to sporting under performance? We've seen it in countless other sports.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by McLaren on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 12:14 pm

CHIII must be pretty close to the 40 majors played mark?
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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by kwinigolfer on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 12:43 pm

Casey has 51
CHIII 40
Roary 45

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by raycastleunited on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 1:38 pm

So add in Casey and that's 4 of the top 10 English. Sad Sad

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by McLaren on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 1:49 pm

ray


It is partly why I think Justin Rose is the best English golfer since Faldo.
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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by pedro on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 2:08 pm

Ray, yes, it's a mentality issue.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by raycastleunited on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 2:41 pm

McLaren wrote:ray


It is partly why I think Justin Rose is the best English golfer since Faldo.  

That's a good shout Mac. Have to say I'm surprised Rose hasn't kicked on and won more majors. He has the game to win any of the 4. His swing is just majestic, all round game very solid but I guess he doesn't hole enough putts.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by GPB on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 2:43 pm

[quote}Interesting to note that 3 of the top 10 are English golfers. I wonder where Casey sits on this list. Is there something about the English mentality which translates to sporting under performance? We've seen it in countless other sports.[/quote]

The list were "notable players", it was not meant to be inclusive.

As pointed out, Casey and Howell were left out. Incidentally, KJ Choi is at 55 tournaments, Tim Clark and Sabbatini are at 45 tournaments

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by Shotrock on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 7:32 pm

Rose clearly the best English golfer since Faldo.

Winning a major at age 40 plus certainly happens, but not very often. Don't look for Lee or Stricker to hoist one of those trophies anytime soon.

Sergio? One great weekend does not a major contender make. Sergio can certainly beat Jay Haas' mark. In fact, I'm counting on it.


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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by pedro on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 7:45 pm

Sergio has been a contender regularly. Seems he has his private life back on track, so why shouldn't he contend again. Fancy him for The Open over Augusta though.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by Shotrock on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 9:00 pm

Fair point. Sergio can "contend" in a major, but I do not expect him to ever win one. Self destructs too often. Add major pressure into that and it become highly volatile.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

Post by super_realist on Thu 09 Feb 2017, 9:05 pm

Fact is most golfers don't win a major, and lot's of players who achieve pretty much bugger all in the game do win one.

You can't really judge how good/or bad a players career is just because they happen to win, or not win a major. I doubt any of these guys are losing sleep over it as they sit in their mansions.

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Re: The 2017 Majors

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