The bookies Lions squad

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Post by Verncottersgrin on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 8:51 am

Since they tend to be reasonably well informed, a look at who the bookmakers currently have as favourites to make the plane.

Props

Jack McGrath (IRE) 1/10
Mako Vunipola (ENG) 1/10
Cian Healy (IRE) 4/6
Tadhg Furlong (IRE) 1/16
Dan Cole (ENG) 1/6
Samson Lee (WAL) 10/11
Zander Fagerson (SCO) 10/11

Hookers

Rory Best (IRE) 1/10
Dylan Hartley (ENG) 1/8
Jamie George (ENG) 1/7

Locks

Alun Wyn Jones (WAL) 1/50
Maro Itoje (ENG) 1/50
Iain Henderson (IRE) 1/8
George Kruis (ENG) 1/6
Jonny Gray (SCO) 10/11

Back Row

CJ Stander (IRE) 1/10
Taulupe Faletau (WAL) 1/7
Sam Warburton (WAL) 1/14
Sean O'Brien (IRE) 1/10
Justin Tipuric (WAL) 1/6
Billy Vunipola (ENG) 1/33
Jamie Heaslip (IRE) 1/10

Scrum Half

Conor Murray (IRE) 1/16
Ben Youngs (ENG) 1/5
Rhys Webb (WAL) 1/5

Fly Half

Jonathan Sexton (IRE) 1/16
George Ford (ENG) 2/5

Centre

Owen Farrell (ENG) 1/66
Robbie Henshaw (IRE) 1/16
Jonathan Joseph (ENG) 1/10
Jonathan Davis (WAL) 1/7

Wing

George North (WAL) 1/20
Anthony Watson (ENG) 1/12
Simon Zebo (IRE) 8/15
Jack Nowell (ENG) 4/6

Full Back

Stuart Hogg (SCO) 1/20
Liam Williams (WAL) 1/7
Leigh Halfpenny (WAL) 1/5


Squad sized roughly based on Gatland's original squad 4 years ago.

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Post by Cyril on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 10:27 am

Interesting.

Farrell the most likely to tour of the lot. Not surprising really since he's favourite to start the tests at either 10 or 12.

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Post by Gooseberry on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 10:39 am

Some of the odds are terrible unless they are offering refunds on injuries.
Players like ford and youngs aren't even garunteed starter spots for the remainder of the 6 nations.
North is one bop on the noggin away from retirement
Watson is only just returning to availability let alone getting a place in the side and your.
There's 3 8'still potentially ahead of Heaslip if they all return to fitness and form.
Kruis is injured and one of 4 England locks that equally deserve a spot....yet it 1-6 in the most competitive position on tour. Meanwhile gray is just short of evens???


The odds are driven as much by where money is being laid or where the bookies think it will go ( England players) as it is on any insider information or rational assessment.

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Post by Cyril on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 10:42 am

Gatland could make some serious money on this.

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Post by whocares on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 11:11 am

Can you actually short some of these?

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Post by Scottrf on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 11:19 am

whocares wrote:Can you actually short some of these?
Not at these odds.

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Post by TightHEAD on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 11:34 am

A sensible squad.

I would love to see Robshaw get the nod too.

Very underrated player (even by England fans) who after the world cup bounced back stronger.
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Post by majesticimperialman on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 11:50 am

I do think that some of those players will hjave to have a big 6ns in what is left of it to even make the training squad...Let alone get on the plane.

Before the England Wales game a lot of people was calling for AWJ to be captain of the Lions. But he did not do him self any favours by turning down those p[enalty kicks at goal which would of put Wales some 6 points clear and made it harder for England to win.

I agree with tighthead i would like to see Robshaw on the Lions he truly deserves a place IMHO.

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Post by pbuk0 on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 11:54 am

I hope there are better options at Tighthead than Samson Lee and Zander Fagerson. Maybe Nell will be fit or Sinckler will prove himself.
I would also love Robshaw to be picked but think he may just miss out again.  
Heaslip probably won't go as they don't need 3 #8's and CJ Stander can cover.
What are the odds on Daley being picked as I think his versatility/ class will be an asset.
Probably will be one from Kruis, Launchbury, Laws. The other 2nd rows are nailed on.

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Post by RuggerRadge2611 on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 12:09 pm

There is a few in that list riding reputations.
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Post by RiscaGame on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 12:15 pm

majesticimperialman wrote:I do think that some of those players will hjave to have a big 6ns in what is left of it  to even make the training squad...Let alone get on the plane.

Before the England Wales game a lot of people was calling for AWJ to be captain of the Lions. But he did not do him self any favours by turning down those p[enalty kicks at goal which would of put Wales some 6 points clear and made it harder for England to win.

I agree with tighthead i would like to see Robshaw on the Lions he truly deserves a place IMHO.

Would they have gone six clear? They'd have faced a restart if they'd kicked the first kick and might not have got into a position to go for another kick from that.

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Post by Poorfour on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 12:38 pm

Bookies' prices reflect where people are placing their bets, not what's going on in Gatland's head (and Borthwick's, Farrell's, Howley's and Geech's head). I think the two could turn out to be very different.
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Post by TJ on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 12:48 pm

pbok0 - Fagerson was not the issue with the Scottish Scrums - ok he is not a destructive scrummager but is able to hold his end up against the best. He is also more than handy in the loose. the problems were on the other side

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Post by lostinwales on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 1:14 pm

RiscaGame wrote:
majesticimperialman wrote:I do think that some of those players will hjave to have a big 6ns in what is left of it  to even make the training squad...Let alone get on the plane.

Before the England Wales game a lot of people was calling for AWJ to be captain of the Lions. But he did not do him self any favours by turning down those p[enalty kicks at goal which would of put Wales some 6 points clear and made it harder for England to win.

I agree with tighthead i would like to see Robshaw on the Lions he truly deserves a place IMHO.

Would they have gone six clear? They'd have faced a restart if they'd kicked the first kick and might not have got into a position to go for another kick from that.

The old assumption that had they taken the kicks everything else that happened would still have happened. And that we will never know - which is why AWJ shouldn't get grief over it (just like Robshaw in recent seasons). Jury should be out on AWJ captaincy until the end of the championship. Just for comparison I think Robshaw was a decent captain but not an especially lucky one- and AWJ might be the same. And as Napoleon said he'd rather have lucky generals that good ones...

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Post by SecretFly on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 3:06 pm

Oh Jesus - yet another Lions thread. George is gonna be pi-ssed.

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Post by funnyExiledScot on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 4:22 pm

I'm surprised Fagerson is being talked about as a Lion. The Scottish scrum has been a disaster this 6 Nations.

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Post by alive555 on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 4:36 pm

Simon zebo and ian Henderson look somewhat unlikely given the competition right now

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Post by robbo277 on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 7:36 pm

I put a fiver on Farrell to be Lions captain. My theory being he saw us over the line against France and Wales and there's every chance he'll captain against Italy and possibly for the rest of the tournament. He could end up with a Six Nations and domestic double.

Went in at 10/1. Think he's a bit long at those odds so had a punt.

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Post by international198 on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 8:11 pm

What are the odds on Scott Williams going on tour? I think he's the best centre in Wales.

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Post by international198 on Thu 16 Feb 2017, 8:12 pm

international198 wrote:What are the odds on Scott Williams going on tour? I think he's the best Welsh Qualified centre.

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Post by BigTrevsbigmac on Fri 17 Feb 2017, 6:34 am

international198 wrote:What are the odds on Scott Williams going on tour? I think he's the best centre in Wales.

He probably is but neither he or JD2 are currently deserving to be on the plane.

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Post by Verncottersgrin on Fri 17 Feb 2017, 7:57 am

The rest of the available players to bet on:
Mike Brown (ENG) 1/4
Chris Robshaw (ENG) 1/3
Courtney Lawes (ENG) 11/10
Robert Kearney (IRE) 6/5
Joe Marler (ENG) 6/4
Scott Williams (WAL) 6/4
Finn Russell (SCO) 7/4
Dan Lydiate (WAL) 2/1
Gethin Jenkins (WAL) 11/4
Alex Dunbar (SCO) 3/1
Keith Earls (IRE) 3/1
Nathan Hughes (ENG) 3/1
Tommy Bowe (IRE) 3/1
Andrew Trimble (IRE) 4/1
Donnacha Ryan (IRE) 4/1
Ross Moriarty 4/1
Danny Care (ENG) 9/2
Thomas Young (WAL) 9/2
John Barclay (SCO) 5/1
Jamie Roberts (WAL) 13/2
Alex Goode (ENG) 9/1
Elliot Daly 10/11
Joe Launchbury (ENG) 1/1
Garry Ringrose (IRE) 11/10
Dan Biggar (WAL) 11/8
Jonny May (ENG) 6/4
W.P Nel (SCO) 6/4
Sean Maitland (SCO) 15/8
Peter O'Mahony (IRE) 5/2
Tommy Seymour (SCO) 11/4
Greig Laidlaw (SCO) 3/1
Kyle Sinckler (ENG) 3/1
Richie Gray (SCO) 3/1
Huw Jones (SCO) 7/2
Devin Toner (IRE) 4/1
Ellis Genge (ENG) 4/1
Tom Croft (ENG) 4/1
Paddy Jackson (IRE) 9/2
Delon Armitage (ENG) 5/1
Marland Yarde (ENG) 6/1
Keelan Giles (WAL) 8/1

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Post by Guest on Fri 17 Feb 2017, 9:21 am

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:
international198 wrote:What are the odds on Scott Williams going on tour? I think he's the best centre in Wales.

He probably is but neither he or JD2 are currently deserving to be on the plane.

Actually, if you look at something like the ESPN fantasy 6 nations game where they rank players on tries, tackles, metres gained, clean breaks, assits, etc. JD2 is 2nd in the centre rankings so far behind Farrell, and I'm guessing Farrell gets some ratings points for kicking too. I appreciate that the ESPN game might not the best measure but perhaps better than just watching the tele. I'm been a huge critic of him for the past few years, but in fairness he's had a good couple of games so far. Looking at the 6N stats he's the only back in the top 6 for carries across the gain line (the rest are forwards); joint top with most clean breaks in the 6N stats too, with 4 so far. For Wales he's out top gainline carrier (above any forward); most metres made for us; top clean breaks; top defenders beaten (6).

I say credit where it's due!

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Post by BigTrevsbigmac on Sat 18 Feb 2017, 7:16 am

Griff wrote:
BigTrevsbigmac wrote:
international198 wrote:What are the odds on Scott Williams going on tour? I think he's the best centre in Wales.

He probably is but neither he or JD2 are currently deserving to be on the plane.

Actually, if you look at something like the ESPN fantasy 6 nations game where they rank players on tries, tackles, metres gained, clean breaks, assits, etc. JD2 is 2nd in the centre rankings so far behind Farrell, and I'm guessing Farrell gets some ratings points for kicking too.  I appreciate that the ESPN game might not the best measure but perhaps better than just watching the tele.  I'm been a huge critic of him for the past few years, but in fairness he's had a good couple of games so far.  Looking at the 6N stats he's the only back in the top 6 for carries across the gain line (the rest are forwards); joint top with most clean breaks in the 6N stats too, with 4 so far. For Wales he's out top gainline carrier (above any forward); most metres made for us; top clean breaks; top defenders beaten (6).  

I say credit where it's due!

Griff, It's skewed somewhat as you have played Italy. It's also clear to see he still isn't a great passer of the ball. I accept he played quite well against England. Let's see the stats at the end of the 6Ns.
The centres of Scotland,Ireland & England have more all round skill in general - just an opinion.

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Post by George Carlin on Sat 18 Feb 2017, 8:39 am

SecretFly wrote:Oh Jesus - yet another Lions thread.  George is gonna be pi-ssed.
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Post by LondonTiger on Sat 18 Feb 2017, 8:42 am

George Carlin wrote:
SecretFly wrote:Oh Jesus - yet another Lions thread.  George is gonna be pi-ssed.
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If a dog mated with a gremlin?

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