When will Roger retake Number 1?

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When with Fed take Number 1?

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When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Born Slippy on Sun 19 Mar 2017, 2:40 pm

First topic message reminder :

With an expected victory tonight, Roger will be over 2,500 points clear of Andy year to date. He should also clean up Miami in the absence of Murray and probable absence of Novak, extending the gap to 3,500 points over Murray and 4,000 points over Novak. It's then likely to be only a matter of time before he gets back to Number 1.

It's unlikely to happen by RG. He'd basically need to win everything on the clay and Andy do poorly. However, Wimbledon is a possibility. I can see a scenario whereby Andy loses in the SF and Fed takes the title to get back to Number 1. If not, the US Open is an option but it's a near certainty to happen in the autumn season, when Andy defends every point going and Fed defends 0 points.

I just have a feeling he will take it back at the US Open, winning his third slam of the year in the process. What do others think?

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by barrystar on Mon 05 Jun 2017, 3:48 pm

Looking at the points Federer still seems to be a very good bet for #4 seed at Wimbledon. It is possible but it seems unlikely that both Wawrinka and Nadal can get ahead of him for Wimbledon. Nobody else can. For Fed to be shoved down to #5, Wawrinka would have to beat Nadal in the RG Final - leaving them both in the mid-upper 6,000's, and then they'd both have to have a fairly tidy Grass run-up season, and Federer a disappointing one.
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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by prostaff85 on Mon 05 Jun 2017, 8:36 pm

With Murray and Djokovic regaining form I think it's crucial for Federer to be a top 4 seed at Wimbledon so he can avoid them until the very last stages.

Some weeks ago it looked like Nadal might even get to #2 seed for Wimbledon, but with Djokovic doing well in Rome and RG I guess he'll hang on to that.

Wimbledon promises to be more exciting than RG this year at least when it comes to predicting the winner!
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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by summerblues on Sun 11 Jun 2017, 6:11 pm

Fight for #1 is heating up.  According to the usual site (http://live-tennis.eu/en/forecast-atp-ranking), here are the top point getters when all points through Wimbledon are dropped:

1. Murray - 7390
2. Nadal - 7285
3. Wawrinka - 6130
4. Djokovic - 5715
5. Federer - 4045

Any points gained through Wimbledon will be additive to the above (subject to countability conditions).

With decent showing at RG, Andy will not be overtaken before Wimbledon, but Rafa has a realistic chance to take #1 spot right after Wimbledon - it will most likely come down to who between Andy and Rafa does better on grass.

Stan, at least on paper, also has a chance to reach #1, but he would almost certainly need to win Wimbledon, which is not his friendliest tournament.  The loss today will probably deprive him of a real shot at snatching #1 sometime between Wimbledon and the USO.  Hard to see him ever having as good a chance again.

Djokovic is probably too far back to reclaim #1 at Wimbledon but both he and Federer can get back in the mix if they do well at Wimbledon (which, in practice, most likely means if they win Wimbledon).

It could be interesting summer.   ...or maybe Rafa just sweeps the rest of the season and it will all be much less interesting Crying or Very sad

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Henman Bill on Sun 11 Jun 2017, 6:39 pm

Year end no 1 race
http://live-tennis.eu/en/atp-race

Rafa 6915
Federer 4045

Murray and Djokovic are just under 2000. I make them basically out of the race for year end no 1 if they don't win Wimbledon.

It looks like a three horse race between Rafa, Roger and the winner of Wimbledon.

Rafa does have a big lead now, but some times doesn't do as well on the fast courts on the second half of the year.

Federer, who a couple of months ago, looked like he could possibly even get year end no 1 with a single slam - doesn't look likely now. He is going to have to do it properly and will likely need another slam.

Still, I think he is still undefeated for a while and won his last three matches against Rafa, it's all to play for still.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by break_in_the_fifth on Sun 11 Jun 2017, 7:16 pm

Hoping Fed can do it, another multi slam year this far into his career would be amazing.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by barrystar on Sun 11 Jun 2017, 7:23 pm

Currently it's on Nadal's racquet - vs. Djoko/Murray 4,900 is a huge lead, and he does not need to break the bank to stay ahead of them.  vs. Fed 2,900 is not so huge, and Fed was able to motor ahead of him during the early part of the season; but Nadal has now played himself into form and confidence which, history suggests, is likely to boost him if it doesn't wear him out.

My take is that Federer is playing for pleasure and glory, is pacing himself, and will take what comes with that.  If Nadal is doing the same he will not bust himself on HC, both otherwise a similar year to 2013 may be on the cards......

It's worth saying huge kudos to Carlos Moya at this point - always thought of him as one of the good guys.
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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by break_in_the_fifth on Sun 11 Jun 2017, 7:26 pm

Yeah would have been closer if Fed had played the clay season and got say 1000-2000 points total from that but its not possible anymore. I meant I was hoping he could win Wimbledon and then just take whatever ranking comes with that. I'm not sure of his chances though and I've never counted Nadal out even in the last 5 years that he's lost early, I've always though he could have done well any of those years even though I don't rate his grass court game.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by AlciG on Mon 12 Jun 2017, 7:35 am

break_in_the_fifth wrote:Yeah would have been closer if Fed had played the clay season and got say 1000-2000 points total from that but its not possible anymore. I meant I was hoping he could win Wimbledon and then just take whatever ranking comes with that. I'm not sure of his chances though and I've never counted Nadal out even in the last 5 years that he's lost early, I've always though he could have done well any of those years even though I don't rate his grass court game.

His grass court game may not be the best, but still to have won Wimbledon twice in this era is still quite an accomplishment

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Guest82 on Mon 12 Jun 2017, 12:14 pm

Barring injury I think Rafa has this in the bag. Federer won't play enough tournaments to pressure him, assuming Nadal performs reasonably he should be YE1.

I don't think the points tally will be as high as we have been used to in recent years though, unless Nadal performs on the hard courts like he did in 2013.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by banbrotam on Wed 14 Jun 2017, 2:40 pm

Guest82 wrote:Barring injury I think Rafa has this in the bag.  Federer won't play enough tournaments to pressure him, assuming Nadal performs reasonably he should be YE1.

I don't think the points tally will be as high as we have been used to in recent years though, unless Nadal performs on the hard courts like he did in 2013.


I agree. Rafa only needs decent Masters and US Open results, to keep all of them at bay.

I have a hunch that Murray is going to have his best hardcourt summer since 2008 (SF at Canada, W at Cincy and F at US Open) but even that is not going to make up for a poor first five months

Novak is a possibility. He could win everything like early last year - but unlikely


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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by boromir7 on Tue 20 Jun 2017, 3:43 pm

The fact that this question was asked makes me despair at the quality of posters on this forum right now..

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Born Slippy on Sun 16 Jul 2017, 4:09 pm

Ok, I didn't take into account Fed gifting the rest of the tour the entire clay season. Had he not done that, the answer would would have been Wimbledon. As it is, bar another long gap, he'll definitely be ahead of Murray by the US Open. The only question is whether he can get Nadal by then.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by summerblues on Sun 16 Jul 2017, 4:18 pm

This summer could see a pretty close fight between Andy, Rafa and Fed but after that Andy is essentially a sitting duck.  Fed has nothing and Rafa not very much to defend.

Incredibly impressive from Fed.  He has no points from last year after Wimbledon, no points from this year's clay court season, and still he is #3 in the world, within striking distance of #1.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by lags72 on Sun 16 Jul 2017, 4:45 pm

Joins Rafa as the only two players already qualified for WTF.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Lionel Hutz on Sun 16 Jul 2017, 5:18 pm

Hmmmm so it looks likely that Rafa will take No 1 off Andy soon enough. Then Roger will try to catch the Spaniard. I'd say he chances are that Roger ends the year as No 1. I can't see him finishing the year with less that 9000 ranking points which will be enough I imagine

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by sirfredperry on Sun 16 Jul 2017, 6:03 pm

Just as the 19th Slam today makes it harder for those in pursuit to match or pass Fed, a return to number one will extend his 302-weeks-in-total record at the top.
   Thought Djoko would eventually overtake it (he could still do so) and at various stages it looked as if Rafa would have a good stab at it, especially when he reached number one for the first time as far back as the summer of 2008.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by lags72 on Sun 16 Jul 2017, 7:06 pm

sirfredperry wrote:

............................................


   Thought Djoko would eventually overtake it (he could still do so) and at various stages it looked as if Rafa would have a good stab at it, especially when he reached number one for the first time as far back as the summer of 2008.

Ah yes ....  2008. How different the world of men's tennis was all those years ago.

Back then, the top four ranking spots were occupied by Nadal/Federer/Djokovic/Murray.

Almost a decade has passed, and so much has changed.

Today, the top four ranking spots are occupied by a whole new set of talented stars who - by amazing coincidence - just happen to be named Murray/Nadal/Federer/Djokovic.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Henman Bill on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 2:24 am

So Rafa has a lead of 7095 - 6545. In the points won so far this calendar year in the race for year end no 1.

Federer obviously having had three slam finals and two wins to Rafa's two finals and one win. But Nadal making up the points on Roger due to playing the clay season.

I'm tempted to make Rafa the favourite here, simply because he may continue to play more tournaments.

However if Federer were to play a full schedule including Cincinatti and perhaps Canada, the US Open, at least one tournament in Asia, the World Tour finals and Paris/Basle, then Federer might be favourite actually.

I said before Wimbledon that it would be a three horse race between Rafa, Roger and the winner of Wimbledon. Well now that makes it a two horse race. For anyone else to win it they would have to pretty much dominate all the big tournaments for the rest of the year, which doesn't seem likely.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Guest on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 4:47 am

I have to agree with nadalnation here - I think he mentioned somewhere that Federer is unlikely to be targeting regaining the number one position.  From Federer's after-match speech at Wimbledon, Federer quipped maybe he should take another 6 months off if that meant winning the Australian Open and Wimbledon again.  It is difficult to know exactly what Federer's schedule is going to be - but he has said his priority is to ensure he plays injury free and healthy.  I think it is likely he will play a good part of the hard court season - but his priorities have changed.  I am sure if he keeps winning the tournaments he does enter and makes a strong showing in the US Open he will end up as number two or number one in any case.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by sirfredperry on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 8:47 am

Might we see a battle royal at the O2 this year, with Rafa and Rog fighting it out to see who gets to year-end number one?
   Interestingly, despite Djoko and Murray having comparatively lean years, they are still 7th and 8th respectively in the year-so-far rankings.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by dummy_half on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 11:40 am

Fed will obviously play the USO, although I wouldn't be surprised if he skips one of the two MS events preceding. Post USO, I'd expect him to play a couple of tournaments including Shanghai but probably not Paris, and then the WTF - He may not target the #1 spot, but he's close enough that it could happen anyway (especially if Rafa is starting to creak after his heavy workload through the clay court swing.)

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by lags72 on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 12:01 pm

I was about to post that he's unlikely to be especially concerned with getting back to Number One ("Am I bovvered ....?"), and that with two Slams and two Masters already in the bag, he would now be putting a higher priority on family life than on ranking points over the second half of the season.

BUT ..... in an interview on BBC Radio earlier this morning he did talk with some enthusiasm about the possibility of a battle for the year-end top spot, with Rafa and himself as the strongest contenders. I guess the competitive fire is always going to be there ..... in one form or another.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Guest on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 12:32 pm

lags72 wrote:... BUT ..... in an interview on BBC Radio earlier this morning he did talk with some enthusiasm about the possibility of a battle for the year-end top spot, with Rafa and himself as the strongest contenders. I guess the competitive fire is always going to be there ..... in one form or another.
I have to admit - it is a bit tempting. He is getting close to the number one spot - and to regain the number one ranking at 36 years of age would be a significant and incredible achievement. The current age record for getting to number one in the ATP ranking is held by Andre Agassi who became world number one aged 33 years 13 days, and remained there for 14 weeks.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by sirfredperry on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 12:45 pm

NNB and Lags72: Mention of Agassi prompts a recall of the situation when Andre got back to number one late in his career. So far from his list of goals was the top spot that he had to be informed at a press conference that he had, indeed, returned to numero uno. 
   Agassi was content to be remain competitive and if the top spot came to him, all well and good. Could be the same with Fed later this year.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by lags72 on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 1:11 pm

I like seeing any mention of Agassi Wink

Always enjoyed watching him play, back in the day, and found his book ('Open') an excellent read. He was so very good for the game, and continues to be, with his charity foundation, which also involves Steffi (I believe ?)

One aspect of his much-celebrated, swansong return to Number One which often gets missed is the fact that he had previously fallen as low as 141 in the rankings. So .... it was a unique, amazing achievement to claw his way back.

Agassi clearly enjoyed a lot of success in the latter years of his career ;  but a certain myth has developed around his Slam history. On countless occasions I have heard the media and various pundits/commentators say that "he won most of his Slams when into his thirties ....". Not true ! Andre has eight Slams to his name - but only two of them came beyond the age of 30. Both were Aussie Opens: 2001 (aged 30) and then his last Slam, 2003 (aged 32).


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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by sirfredperry on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 1:15 pm

Lags. Well here is another mention of Andre. No doubt you'll recall his playing a GS final at aged 35 when his opponent in that New York title match was a certain...Roger Federer.
   At the end of his career, Andre said he wanted to be still good enough that his opponent had to play really well to beat him. Finally, his body gave out and he had to call it a day.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by lags72 on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 1:22 pm

sfp - yes, that was a quality match.

Federer put in a very strong, high-powered performance - and he certainly needed to, because Andre still had the weapons (just about ....!) to pull off a win.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Guest82 on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 1:45 pm

Think Federer hinted he would skip Canada. Would expect him to be favourite for Cinci and go deep at USO for sure. He'll probably play Basle, Shanghai and WTF too.

Just if he can get enough points from those tournaments to overtake Rafa either at some point of for YE1.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by 88Chris05 on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 2:02 pm

lags72 wrote:Agassi clearly enjoyed a lot of success in the latter years of his career ;  but a certain myth has developed around his Slam history. On countless occasions I have heard the media and various pundits/commentators say that "he won most of his Slams when into his thirties ....". Not true ! Andre has eight Slams to his name - but only two of them came beyond the age of 30. Both were Aussie Opens: 2001 (aged 30) and then his last Slam, 2003 (aged 32).

He did win three in quick succession (French Open ’99, US Open ’99 and Australian Open ’00) as a 29-year-old though, in fairness. In the thirtieth year of his life, I guess. So close enough. Wink

But yeah, regardless of the finer details, Agassi’s comeback was pretty remarkable. 29 / 30 is considered slightly long in the tooth even today, but a couple of decades back (can’t believe it’s been that long!) it was the point where you really didn’t expect a player to be peaking and challenging for the majority of the Slams they entered. Yet 29 / 30 was the best year of Agassi’s career. Still love revisiting that semi-final in Australia in 2000 against Sampras, the fourth set tie-break in particularly. Phenomenal passage of play from both and probably one of Agassi’s greatest victories.

Let’s not forget that the run I’ve mentioned above, combined with his runner-up spot at Wimbledon ’99, also made him the first man since Rocket Rod to make the final in four consecutive Slams. Of course, with Federer, Nadal and Djokovic, that kind of stuff is ten-a-penny nowadays!
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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by sirfredperry on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 2:11 pm

Some of Agassi's longevity could be attributed to his decisions in 1997 to, first, effectively stop playing, and second to be so determined to get back on to the treadmill that he was prepared to play a couple of challengers.
   The 141 ranking got boosted to 122 by the season's end, the next year he was back in the top 10 and the year after that he was back at number one and winning Slams again.
   Well might Murray and Djoko look at this Andre lay off - and of course Roger's six-months-off decision last year - and work out their best way forward.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Guest on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 3:05 pm

sirfredperry wrote: ... Well might Murray and Djoko look at this Andre lay off ...
Remember Djokovic has now employed Andre Agassi as part of his new team.  

Agassi's issue was mental (?) not physical - where he needed to "find himself", after breaking away from an overbearing father who deprived him of a normal childhood.  He had to fall in love with tennis on his own terms - to take ownership of himself and his future.   That is the impression I have got from patching together bits and pieces of what I have heard from elsewhere - not having read Agassi's biography.  I trust others here will correct me if I have got it wrong.

Djokovic's situation is just weird - in getting rid of his successful team around him.   There is definitely something strange going on there - with suggestions that his team created a culture around him where Djokovic himself didn't feel inhibited to start having an affair (s) with a woman (women) that were not his wife.  Hence the team had to go - to save his marriage, which had produced a son, - and he had to start again.  Apart from that he seems to be carrying an elbow injury - which has been suggested that he has had for 18 months (which would mean he had it when he was winning Australian Open 2016 & French Open 2016).

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by reckoner on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 3:07 pm

No name Bertie wrote:"find himself"

Find a decent wig and some meth, FTFY.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by reckoner on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 3:09 pm

No name Bertie wrote:There is definitely something strange going on there - with suggestions that his team created a culture around him where Djokovic himself didn't feel inhibited to start having an affair (s) with a woman (women) that were not his wife. Hence the team had to go - to save his marriage, which had produced a son, - and he had to start again.

Eh? So he's blaming an affair on the "cuture" created by his coaching team? That's absolutely incredible if true.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Guest82 on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 3:14 pm

reckoner wrote:
No name Bertie wrote:There is definitely something strange going on there - with suggestions that his team created a culture around him where Djokovic himself didn't feel inhibited to start having an affair (s) with a woman (women) that were not his wife.  Hence the team had to go - to save his marriage, which had produced a son, - and he had to start again.  

Eh? So he's blaming an affair on the "cuture" created by his coaching team? That's absolutely incredible if true.

Maybe his Mrs isn't happy that those around him allowed it to go on and doesn't trust him with them. He might have had a choice - his team or his wife/kid?

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by reckoner on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 3:16 pm

Guest82 wrote:
reckoner wrote:
No name Bertie wrote:There is definitely something strange going on there - with suggestions that his team created a culture around him where Djokovic himself didn't feel inhibited to start having an affair (s) with a woman (women) that were not his wife.  Hence the team had to go - to save his marriage, which had produced a son, - and he had to start again.  

Eh? So he's blaming an affair on the "cuture" created by his coaching team? That's absolutely incredible if true.

Maybe his Mrs isn't happy that those around him allowed it to go on and doesn't trust him with them.  He might have had a choice - his team or his wife/kid?

Doesn't make any sense. I mean Agassi isn't exactly the model of probity is he? At the end of the day only one person is responsible for playing hide the sausage outside his marriage...

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Guest82 on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 4:02 pm

reckoner wrote:
Guest82 wrote:
reckoner wrote:
No name Bertie wrote:There is definitely something strange going on there - with suggestions that his team created a culture around him where Djokovic himself didn't feel inhibited to start having an affair (s) with a woman (women) that were not his wife.  Hence the team had to go - to save his marriage, which had produced a son, - and he had to start again.  

Eh? So he's blaming an affair on the "cuture" created by his coaching team? That's absolutely incredible if true.

Maybe his Mrs isn't happy that those around him allowed it to go on and doesn't trust him with them.  He might have had a choice - his team or his wife/kid?

Doesn't make any sense. I mean Agassi isn't exactly the model of probity is he? At the end of the day only one person is responsible for playing hide the sausage outside his marriage...

I guess his wife might want to stay married to multi-millionaire superstar Novak Djokovic, but also may want to blame someone for marriage problems.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Guest on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 4:59 pm

Regarding his wife - she could have made it very messy for Djokovic (assuming it was an ultimatum from her). She could have extracted a lot from Djokovic's wealth to support herself & their child - & Djokovic's reputation would have taken an enormous hit - both in terms of eastern orthodox christian Serbia (he is a national hero) and in terms of his sponsors. Everyone agrees there must have been something extraordinary going on for Djokovic to dump his entire winning team.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by reckoner on Mon 17 Jul 2017, 6:03 pm

No name Bertie wrote:Regarding his wife - she could have made it very messy for Djokovic (assuming it was an ultimatum from her).  She could have extracted a lot from Djokovic's wealth to support herself & their child - & Djokovic's reputation would have taken an enormous hit - both in terms of eastern orthodox christian Serbia (he is a national hero) and in terms of his sponsors.  Everyone agrees there must have been something extraordinary going on for Djokovic to dump his entire winning team.

I don't doubt it, but if that was indeed what happened she's got to realise that could well kill the goose so to speak.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by dummy_half on Tue 18 Jul 2017, 10:31 am

reckoner wrote:
No name Bertie wrote:Regarding his wife - she could have made it very messy for Djokovic (assuming it was an ultimatum from her).  She could have extracted a lot from Djokovic's wealth to support herself & their child - & Djokovic's reputation would have taken an enormous hit - both in terms of eastern orthodox christian Serbia (he is a national hero) and in terms of his sponsors.  Everyone agrees there must have been something extraordinary going on for Djokovic to dump his entire winning team.

I don't doubt it, but if that was indeed what happened she's got to realise that could well kill the goose so to speak.

Well, with career earnings of $109 million (and that's just winnings, not appearance fees or endorsements), I don't think Mrs Djokovic would be short of a couple of quid in a divorce settlement.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by reckoner on Tue 18 Jul 2017, 12:43 pm

Good point, well made. @dh

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Henman Bill on Tue 18 Jul 2017, 4:56 pm

On Federer, I think he should go for number 1 now, as long as he can do so without risking his health or fitness. I would assume he would play Cincinatti and the US Open and the world tour finals and Basle and I think he should consider adding Canada, Shanghai and Paris. Perhaps even one of the Asian 500s as well if he loses early in some tournaments in the Cincinatti-US Open part.

However, I think this it is primarily a decision to make after the US Open. If Rafa has won it, year end no 1 would probably no longer be worth pursuing at his age and given the lead Rafa would have.

I suspect there would be two main decision for Federer to make in the race for no 1. The first is whether to go to Asia. And the second is whether to play Paris.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by Guest on Tue 18 Jul 2017, 6:05 pm

Considering Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal - what have we learnt from Wimbledon?
a) Roger Federer looks to be healthy and playing as well as could be expected for a 35 year old heading to 36 year old.  Expect him to have a good hard court season - but taking opportunities in thinning out his schedule.

b) Rafael Nadal looks to be healthy and playing as well as could be expected for someone whose weakest surface is now the grass.  Expect him to play a full hard court season.  He is better on the medium to slow hard courts.

c) Novak Djokovic.  Seems to be in the worst position he has been in since the start of the year.  He is revealed to have an elbow injury that apparently has been troubling him for 18 months - but now is at its worse.  Is slowly building around him an entirely new coaching - support team.  Difficult to judge what sort of hard court season he is going to have.  Surely he is going to have to take a significant period off to recover from his physical injury.

d) Andy Murray.  Seems to be in the worst position since the start of the year.  He couldn't even walk straight.  He was walking crookedly with his pelvis grossly misaligned.  It seems to look worse than what it must feel - because he still managed to get to the quarter-finals.  Surely he is going to have to have significant period off to recover - and probably needs some sort of surgery eventually.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by sirfredperry on Tue 18 Jul 2017, 6:24 pm

Yes, we do seem to have reached the point where only two of the Big Four are in reasonable shape at any one time. When all four reached the second week at Wimbledon, I - and probably plenty others - looked forward to some blockbuster matches. But it was not to be, although at least we had the drama of the men's best match of the tournament in Muller-Rafa.
   Interesting that in one interview Fed has questioned the points system which is now so slewed towards the winners of big tournaments (finalists and semi finalists don't get as many points in proportion as they once did)
   Of course, he recognised he'd benefitted from this and in doing well in the big-point tourneys he can cherrypick his schedule, knowing that absences from some events won't hurt his ranking too much.
   NNB - Let's hope the "crocks" recover soon. With so few of the younger players making an impression at the big events, we need the Big 4 all fit and well.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by reckoner on Tue 18 Jul 2017, 10:00 pm

I think Kyrgios could be a big threat at the USO. Federer was lucky to get past him in Miami - that was a seriously close match. Fed's game looked relatively underpowered in comparison. In contrast the final against Nadal was relatively staid, though Roger did say he felt Nadal's movement wasn't 100%.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by sirfredperry on Wed 19 Jul 2017, 8:36 am

R'ner. Yes, it would be nice to see Kyrgios step up. But every tournament that goes by with him losing/being injured, I lose a little faith. He's one of the most talented guys on the tour but it seems he can't get his head, or his body, in shape.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by reckoner on Wed 19 Jul 2017, 9:59 am

sirfredperry wrote:R'ner. Yes, it would be nice to see Kyrgios step up. But every tournament that goes by with him losing/being injured, I lose a little faith. He's one of the most talented guys on the tour but it seems he can't get his head, or his body, in shape.

I know what you mean but he's ridiculously young - what 22 years old? I'm hopeful he'll calm down and get it together - can take a while with some players.


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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by lags72 on Wed 19 Jul 2017, 11:02 am

reckoner wrote:

............................................

I know what you mean but he's ridiculously young - what 22 years old? I'm hopeful he'll calm down and get it together - can take a while with some players.


Well hopefully he will. Only time will tell.

One thing's for sure - the game certainly needs exciting-to-watch, talented guys like Kyrgios to 'step up' on the very biggest stages, otherwise we'll be seeing the same familiar names continuing to take the Slams - which I personally think isn't altogether a good thing.

It's true that sporting stardom comes to different athletes at different ages. BUT ...... I really don't believe we can call Kyrgios, at 22, "ridiculously young".

To me, ridiculously young would be Becker or Wilander winning their first Slam aged just 17 (when I was just about leaving school...Shocked ) ; Borg winning at 18 ; Nadal, Sampras & Edberg aged 19. Even the (late-developer !) Federer had won three Slams by the age of 22, as Kyrgios is now.

Seems to me that a meaningful, serious impact from the next wave of fresh blood may only be felt once the current old guard have finally either begun to fade or stopped touring completely. And if so, then you would have to question just how talented they really are when benchmarked against the last ten or fifteen years.

There was a recent comment that Federer struggled to beat Kyrgios in Miami a few weeks back, and that Kyrgios came very, very close to taking the match. I had a wry smile at that, because - to my mind - Kyrgios should not just be coming close to beating a 35 year old. He should be winning comfortably.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by sirfredperry on Wed 19 Jul 2017, 11:24 am

On the age thing. In the last decade we had a teenage GS winner (Rafa) while Andy and Novak were able to do great things in their late teens and early 20s.
   But then  - nothing. We went eight years without a teenager even reaching a TOUR FINAL, let alone winning one. A Zverev broke that trend and, with Thiem, is a young player high up the rankings.
   But not only are the Zverevs and Thiems rarely able to do much at the big tourneys, even the Dimis and Keis are not exactly making a big mark either (although Dimi looked good at the AO this year).
   Are players coming through much later now? Stan, for example, looked like he was never going to win a Slam but now has three. Cilic, at 28, has played some of his best tennis this year. Muller, at 34, is having his best-ever season. Berdych at 31 can still be a handful.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by reckoner on Wed 19 Jul 2017, 2:22 pm

It's the influence of the roadrunners, right? If you're not naturally predisposed it can take quite some time before being able to play that way. I remember Djokovic howling with frustration at being unable to keep up with Nadal - possibly at Miami? - it took him years of going "gluten free" until he started being able to outlast him.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

Post by sirfredperry on Wed 19 Jul 2017, 3:34 pm

reckoner wrote:It's the influence of the roadrunners, right? If you're not naturally predisposed it can take quite some time before being able to play that way. I remember Djokovic howling with frustration at being unable to keep up with Nadal - possibly at Miami? - it took him years of going "gluten free" until he started being able to outlast him.
Well the outlasting was truly stupendous, resulting in that barely-believable run of 43 unbeaten matches in 2011. All the rest of the Big Four were fit and playing regularly then. So it could be argued that this was the most remarkable streak of results in the Open Era. They say you can only beat what's in front of you. Well, Djoko managed to consistently beat everyone for week after week, including tremendous wins over Rafa on Rafa's favourite surface.

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Re: When will Roger retake Number 1?

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