PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

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PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 2:55 pm

OK, We haven't done this for a couple of years, going through the field of 94 golfers in completely arbitrary and biased fashion until we find a winner we can be happy with. Inspired by Andy North.

No consideration is being made for the conditions which may be influenced by the weather forecast. Storms on Monday closed the course, should be pleasant today, but more storms expected Wednesday. Perhaps the SubAir will presumably cope unless it blows a gasket through overuse, but it sounds as if fairways will still be soft. Then cool and quite windy for Rounds 1 and 2, fine and calmer for the weekend, greens drying out and running at 20 on the Stimpmeter.

1).No amateur has won The Masters and that won't change this week. Five golfers eliminated.

2).And Augusta first-timers haven't won since Fuzzy almost 40 years ago. That gets rid of 14 more, but this is an impressive crop of debutants including Fleetwood, Hadwin, Noren, Pieters & Rahm. Sorry guys, maybe next year.

3).Old Masters and Past Masters: This year in particular, the over-forties crowd who have flourished in the past, have been put into their place by the Young Guns. No-one over 40 has won the Green Jacket since Fatty O'Meara in 1998 and I don't see that trend changing, although Mickelson would undoubtedly bet against that trend. Green Zimmer frames for Phil, Lee, Henrik and 20 others, including 38-y-o Trevor Immelman who won't be in contention. Will he?

For those scoring at home, that's 42 down, 52 to go.

4).We haven't seen an Asian-born Major winner and who's to say Matsuyama won't be the first? Just not this week, Hideki, and you can commiserate with Ben An, James Hahn, Ikeda, Kevin Na (got to get rid of him somehow) and Tanihara. That's another six deported, 46 to go.

5).Continental Europe hasn't produced a winner since Jose Maria 18 years ago and that won't change this year, much as I think Rafa will have a good week. That's five more gone, plus I'll throw in Shane Lowry if my back can take it. 40 remain.

6).Lightning won't strike twice, willett? Very thin ice here as I really like Justin Rose to have a fine week. Good form all year and this may be his focus, much as Rio was last year. But the rest of the British contingent (including Rory) will drown their sorrows with the Patrons, and that's another 9 down the drain. 31 still playing.

7).I like winners and recent winners even more. That sees the field narrow considerably if I eliminate all those who haven't won this year or last - 11 more leave the premises, and then there were 20 (hate to see Kisner go).

8).Some high-flyers from last year have been under the radar this. Augusta National is no place to rediscover your game so adios to Jason Day, Spieth (but he'll surely be around the lead, won't he?), Scott, Reed, Bubba, 3 x Saffers, Walker, Koepka, Berger, Moore. That's a dozen to the exit, and an elite eight remain.

9).Most Masters winners are terrific putters, and Justin Thomas (48th in putting), Brendan Steele (102nd) and Johnny Vegas (164th) won't get it done.

10).Which leaves DJ, Fowler, Henley, Leishman and Sneds.
Sneds ticks most of the boxes, not least being someone who embraces the "Augusta" thing. Not in top form though.
Fowler still has that double-bogey in his DNA.
So this leaves us with a top 3 of Russell Henley, Marc Leishman and Dustin Johnson. All recent winners of course, but nothing wrong with a hot golfer. I can't see past DJ; he may be unsettled by the wind early in the tournament but soft fairways won't hurt him at all.  
Best of the rest: Berger, Oosthuizen, Rose, Spieth.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by wiretapper on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 3:58 pm

You make a compelling case Kwini but there is no value at 7-1 especially on an each way bet.

If it wasn't Rahm's debut I'd stick a bunch on him.

Fowler at 20-1 (for he can play in the wind) and Rose at 25-1 (for he is Mr. Consistency) offer much better value.

Leishman (60-1) and Berger (70-1) are perfect for each way bets.

If Vegas could even slightly putt I would be very tempted.

Quick question, did this method bring you to Willet last year?

And 2011, Schwartzel was so out of form I doubt you would have ended up at him with 50 attempts.

Still, it is very interesting reading as always.

PS I think I'm going to stick with Ricky and pray for more wind

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by McLaren on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 4:38 pm

Hi kwini, I will read (savor) your article later when I have more time.  Looking forward to it.


For now some equipment news.

Rory has taken GBB 3 and 5 FW out the bag and replaced them with TM 2017 M2's.

Interesting that he is still chopping and changing.
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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 5:20 pm

Tee Times for Thursday & Friday:

http://www.masters.com/pdf/Masters-GroupingsAndStartingTimes-Rd1.pdf

Groupings as random as ever.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 5:24 pm

Great read Kwini; thanks. As good as any way to pick a prospective winner I guess. Love the Lowry and Willett references OK.

Golf season always started with the Masters for me. Looking forward to this.
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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 6:20 pm

Thanks gents,

wire,
Tongue in cheek only, there's so much written about The Masters on an hourly basis, there's no point in trying to compete. Any conclusion drawn is merely as the result of the criteria, but I beg to differ about Schwartzel in 2011; he had had a super South African series of tournament results, including a win and 3 other Top 4's, and not bad after that, everything Top 30 except a 47th.

Just hope the weather cooperates a little better than the forecast suggests.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Be_the_ball on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 6:25 pm

Cheers Kwini, very difficult to see past DJ. Im not one bit surprised Rory's gone back to TM, he was glowing about them earlier in the season and I think his flirtations with Callaway woods were just that, flirting no actual intent. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't sign with TM for woods at least. As for Rory winning it? I think his mind will have been too occupied with thoughts of his upcoming nuptials for him to be in the right place mentally. But who knows, if he's there or there abouts on the back 9 Sunday anything can happen.

This is it Folks, Masters week is finally here Yahoo

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by puligny on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 7:07 pm

Still refining my criteria. So far it will be a golfer wearing a cap, and playing a white ball - sorry Bubba.
More thinking to do on the rest!
Great draw for Lee, but was hoping for something better for Scott Gregory - not that it will bother him - and no disrespect to Lyle or O'Hair.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Faldono1fan on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 7:28 pm

I think last year was the start of a European run. If I remember correctly there were quite a few English players in the top ten last year, There are more than ever in it this year.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 7:50 pm

puligny, Nick,
Do you guys know Gregory? Hadn't realised he lives in Water City.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by pedro on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 8:04 pm

"No consideration is being made for the conditions which may be influenced by the weather forecast."
Just as the sunrise is influenced by the rooster?  Very Happy
And yes, only a c0ck would see past DJ.
PS: nice write-up kwini. Wasn't YE Yang Asian born?

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by pedro on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 8:09 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:Tee Times for Thursday & Friday:

http://www.masters.com/pdf/Masters-GroupingsAndStartingTimes-Rd1.pdf

Groupings as random as ever.
You always know it's a true, global Major when only the nationality of non-Americans are mentioned.. chin
Still I obviously assume the winner becomes 'World Champion'...

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by pedro on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 8:13 pm

We all know Fred Couples isn't a 'PGA kind of guy'. But apparently he isn't a 'ANGC kind of guy' either: paired with Na and Casey..

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 8:24 pm

pedro wrote:"No consideration is being made for the conditions which may be influenced by the weather forecast."
Just as the sunrise is influenced by the rooster?  Very Happy
And yes, only a c0ck would see past DJ.
PS: nice write-up kwini. Wasn't YE Yang Asian born?

I thought YE Yang was born in Minnesota - why couldn't I remember him?

Yup, The only thing about the weather is that there's been a lot of chat over here about the impact of the wind for two days, and with a soft course possibly favouring high-ball hitters.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by pedro on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 8:32 pm

(Also) A bad day to be vegetarian.
http://www.golfchannel.com/news/golf-central-blog/willett-reveals-yorkshire-champions-dinner-menu

Some mighty good wines there. I doubt the bugger has chosen them himself.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by puligny on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 8:54 pm

Kwini - yes, he's a member at Corehampton just a few miles from me. I've played with him several times in our annual match vs County. Really nice lad - noticeably a bit more cliched past year or two but real quality golfer. Not a big hitter but as accurate as you like, and hot short game. Very popular with his peers, and pitched up at our place a few weeks ago, very early ahead of county match just to spend morning with juniors. No prior warning, just settled in with them and gave some quality coaching - then asked that it not be mentioned later at dinner as didn't want to appear big I am!Hope he makes cut - I see he won the annual match with US Am champion last week.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Shotrock on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 10:34 pm

Nice menu by Willett ... but c'mon, I know there are some wineries in Surrey that make a passable white. And why not a claret for the main course?

I have a hunch about Rose and Rory this week ...


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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by pedro on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 11:05 pm

Shotrock wrote:And why not a claret for the main course?
Too French for Bubba Watson..

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by pedro on Tue 04 Apr 2017, 11:14 pm

So apparently Jordan Spieth's strategy this week is focusing on that he strikes fear in the other players... picard

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 12:44 am

Why would Danny choose California wine when he's got the whole world to choose from? Including Oregon.

Much better choice in the sequence with Bubba and Tyrrell Hatton below:

http://www.sbnation.com/golf/2017/4/4/15184558/bubba-watson-danny-willett-tyrrell-hatton-16th-hole-masters-augusta-national-vijay-singh

The only month my balls skip on the water hazard is February - and this March as it happens.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 2:07 am

Does anyone maintain that groupings are random?

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by I'm never wrong on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 7:58 am

GPB wrote:Does anyone maintain that groupings are random?
I think there is some manipulation going on, (over and above the known pairings - previous winner with amateur champ etc)  but some of the groupings do appear random.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by navyblueshorts on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 8:31 am

pedro wrote:(Also) A bad day to be vegetarian.
http://www.golfchannel.com/news/golf-central-blog/willett-reveals-yorkshire-champions-dinner-menu

Some mighty good wines there. I doubt the bugger has chosen them himself.
What a peculiar thing to say.
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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Be_the_ball on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 10:52 am

I see some people picking Sergio Garcia on Sporty's game. Does anyone really think he has a chance of winning on Augusta greens? or is it an attempt at winding up GPB, Shotrock and Robo?

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by I'm never wrong on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 11:52 am

There's a picture on the Masters website of the Champions Dinner. See here. Does anyone else think Vijay Singh is giving a little wave?

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Be_the_ball on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 12:10 pm

I'm never wrong wrote:There's a picture on the Masters website of the Champions Dinner. See here. Does anyone else think Vijay Singh is giving a little wave?

Laugh

He does a bit!

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by sportform on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 12:19 pm

Some guy in front of me at Betfred just put more than a hundred on Koepka each way for The Masters.
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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by I'm never wrong on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 1:01 pm

sportform wrote:Some guy in front of me at Betfred just put more than a hundred on Koepka each way for The Masters.
I did a fiver. Here's hoping.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 1:07 pm

Be_the_ball wrote:
I'm never wrong wrote:There's a picture on the Masters website of the Champions Dinner. See here. Does anyone else think Vijay Singh is giving a little wave?

Laugh

He does a bit!

I'm sure there must be someone missing but at first glance it looks like a 100% turn out. (Except Palmer of course.) Larry Mize and Ben Crenshaw look more alike every year.


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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Jermaine2015 on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 1:36 pm

Rory's year.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 1:57 pm

Plenty will be thrilled if you're right Jermaine,


Amazing stat on pgatour.com from last year's Masters:
Greens hit in Regulation: Eight of the Top Ten were non-Americans.
Full list, in order:
Fitz
Rose
Westwood
4th not identified but presumably not in this year's field - Kaufman perhaps? But could just as easily be another non-American.
Berger
TGarcia, Kjeldsen, Wiesberger, Willett
Oosthuizen

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by wiretapper on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 2:03 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:Thanks gents,

wire,
Tongue in cheek only, there's so much written about The Masters on an hourly basis, there's no point in trying to compete. Any conclusion drawn is merely as the result of the criteria, but I beg to differ about Schwartzel in 2011; he had had a super South African series of tournament results, including a win and 3 other Top 4's, and not bad after that, everything Top 30 except a 47th.

Just hope the weather cooperates a little better than the forecast suggests.

Yeah, I appreciate that Kwini and my Willet question was certainly on the cheeky side.

Interesting point about Charl though as I was sure he was in poor form coming into it. I even recall talking a friend out of backing him after his opening 69, got a few pelters for that come the Monday.

There is still some merit in the elimination process though, for example those making their debuts. I genuinely believe the only thing stopping Rahm from winning it is that it his first time here. I don't doubt there are many reasons as to why no only three (really two, or maybe even one) debutants have won and I don't see it changing.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 2:49 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:
Be_the_ball wrote:
I'm never wrong wrote:There's a picture on the Masters website of the Champions Dinner. See here. Does anyone else think Vijay Singh is giving a little wave?

Laugh

He does a bit!

I'm sure there must be someone missing but at first glance it looks like a 100% turn out. (Except Palmer of course.) Larry Mize and Ben Crenshaw look more alike every year.


I don't think Jackie Burke is there.  The old guy between Crenshaw and Woosie is Doug Ford.  Between Watson and Coody is Tommy Aaron and Bob Goalby is between Mize and Zach.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 3:25 pm

Good catch GPB,
Only one I had trouble id'ing was Adam Scott!


Strange old story from the AP about Jimmy Walker battling mono for the past five months. Worth bearing in mind as we come to some TX tournaments where he often plays well.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 3:40 pm

Storm clouds gathering over Augusta National - if the extreme end of the forecast materialises, there could be damage to the course and then it'll be a race against time for the grounds crew to clear everything up and make pretend it never happened #fakenews.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 5:44 pm

Cool article reprinted here for all like Kelly Kraft and Grayson Murray who think European & Asian Tour players leap up the rankings a bit too quickly.
It's taken Hatton twenty years!

https://twitter.com/ParkythePro/status/849534206539681796/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fsport%2Flive%2F39032206

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 6:02 pm

Well the Par Three Contest is off and running.

Webb, Bubba, and J-Day were supposed to play together, supposively with their Brood in Caddie Garb.

Webb and Bubba are the leaderboard, but no J-Day.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by I'm never wrong on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 7:00 pm

Just seen an update on the Masters website - course closed for the rest of the day. That will dishearten Sky.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 7:14 pm

They have a "Tornado Watch" in place with severe storms due to start passing through shortly - looks like they're right in the bullseye.

Disheartening Sky indeed.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Be_the_ball on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 9:03 pm

Last year I was on a train between Gatwick and Clapham Junction when Danny was becoming champion of the world. Everyone around me was oblivious. This year I've taken Monday off, just incase it goes late...

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by McLaren on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 9:29 pm

Nice write up Kwini, really enjoyed your elimination process. Hard to argue with the DJ outcome especially if the ground ends up a little damp.

I fancy a missed cut from McIlroy.
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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Shotrock on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 9:31 pm

NO WAY Rory misses the cut! It's his time.

(If his putter is on he could play one-handed to the greens and be top 5. Big if, I know.)

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by super_realist on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 9:48 pm

Christ, I thought 9C was wooden and dreary. DJ sounds like he's thicker and more boring than Steven Gerrard and Wayne Rooney's lovechild.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Shotrock on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 9:55 pm

Super - I'm guessing he's smoked so much weed that it's become his MO. I enjoy the "no BS" banter ... but that's just me.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by super_realist on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 9:57 pm

I thought he'd have a bit more personality, but seems about as interesting as a pint with Gordon Spieth.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by pedro on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 10:07 pm

Think he's worse now after his comeback. Before he did at least have a hint of charisma.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by sirbenson on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 10:17 pm

http://www.golfdigest.com/story/masters-2017-dustin-johnson-injures-back-on-wednesday-questionable-to-compete Jeez DJ, here's hoping he can tee it up tomorrow

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by super_realist on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 10:32 pm

Ha ha ha, Knew I was right not to pick Johnson.

Must have slipped on a rizla.

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Be_the_ball on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 10:40 pm

super_realist wrote:Ha ha ha, Knew I was right not to pick Johnson.

Must have slipped on a rizla.

Laugh

There's no way picard

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by pedro on Wed 05 Apr 2017, 10:43 pm

I heard marijuana can ease back pain.

pedro

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Join date : 2011-01-27

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Re: PGA Tour: The Masters - The Elimination Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

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