How long will Theresa May last as PM?

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How long will Theresa May last as Prime Minister

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Total Votes : 11

How long will Theresa May last as PM?

Post by MrInvisible on Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:36 pm

Can she tough it out, or is she as Osborne says 'a dead woman' walking? To be fair she has lasted longer than Nuttall and Farron post-election! Also, looking into your crystal balls do you feel the Tories can survive this rocky patch and stay in power for a little while yet or do you feel another general election is not too far away?

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Re: How long will Theresa May last as PM?

Post by dummy_half on Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:43 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories with DUP help manage to cling on for a 5 year term, but there is no way May is leading them into the next election. I also think there's no appetite for another leadership contest in the Conservative party in the near term, especially given all the delays in getting the Brexit negotiations going.

My suspicion is that May will be leader until the end of the Brexit negotiation process (which I'm sure will be extended by about a year), and then out on her ear, so 2-4 years, most likely about 2.5 to 3

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Re: How long will Theresa May last as PM?

Post by MrInvisible on Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:13 pm

Since the election there's been lots of rumours in parts of media of a leadership challenge. One school of thought is that May will go imminently, after the Queen's Speech, clearing the way for a leadership contest over the summer. Another is that May will at least stay to steer Brexit through - so another couple of years.

The knives are certainly being sharpened behind the scenes though and a leadership challenge may emerge at any time.

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Re: How long will Theresa May last as PM?

Post by Muscular-mouse on Sat Jul 08, 2017 4:22 pm

seems like Michael gove and boris Johnson are already trying to undermine her by openly criticising her on key things such as the public sector pay freeze etc.

Both of those men wanted to be leader but lost to May and so it wouldn't surprise me if they were just criticising her not because they disagree with her but they see it as an easy way to get public support.

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Re: How long will Theresa May last as PM?

Post by MrInvisible on Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:08 pm

Just bumping this up in light of recent political stories in the headlines.  She's lasted over 4 months to date and I can see her clinging on a little while yet, but I do think anything more than 2 years looks unlikely.

I do think that if key ally Damian Green is forced out she will be gone.

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Re: How long will Theresa May last as PM?

Post by Duty281 on Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:18 pm

Would predict, without any great certainty, that she'll be gone by next summer.

At the very least, if the Tories want to gain a majority at the next GE, they will need a new leader to take them into it.

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Re: How long will Theresa May last as PM?

Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:03 am

May needs a quiet spell....Universal credit fiasco....Sex stuff...Israel saga....Bad time.

Leader ratings improve when they are out of sight and out of mind....Less is more.

Always a problem for Party leaders after elections...When people lose seats at a local level the MP for that Constituency gets a swollen eardrum....So..

Nothing will happen before May 2018..and possibly not even then if they do okay.

She will be gone in 2019.. think the Tories are pretty clear on that one and I believe they will skip a generation like they did picking Cameron.

Keep an eye on the the new Defence secretary I imagine he is there so he can raise his profile...

McVey...Ellwood are dark horses.

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Re: How long will Theresa May last as PM?

Post by Muscular-mouse on Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:14 pm

She will stay for the Brexit negotiations. I don't think any new leader wants to be at the helm when the negotiations are taking place as I believe they will not end up great for the UK and the leader will get the blame. So any potential leader would rather Mrs May gets the blame and then they can take over and 'save the day'.

April 2019 is my guess with a conservative leadership election to take place followed by a General election.

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Re: How long will Theresa May last as PM?

Post by Samo on Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:04 am

There could be as many as 40 Tory MP’s ready to sign a bill of no confidence in May. The end could be closer than we think.

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Re: How long will Theresa May last as PM?

Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:16 am

Mistake letting Patel resign and not sacking her...She hasn't got a following in the party by all accounts...Missed a chance to look strong.

May's fortunes are inextricably linked to Boris.. In any sane World he would have had to resign over this Iranian debacle..

He is hurting her the longer he stays...But it is..Catch 22.

Get rid of him and risk causing a leadership election or let him stay and pee off 48 Tories and lose any chance you have in any future ballot because you didn't have the guts to kick him out.



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Re: How long will Theresa May last as PM?

Post by Pr4wn on Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:04 pm

May is managing to make John Major look strong and stable.

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Re: How long will Theresa May last as PM?

Post by lostinwales on Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:02 pm

Pr4wn wrote:May is managing to make John Major look strong and stable.

John Major is looking better with hindsight. He was not in power during the easiest of times, but rather watching over the end of a long Tory downward spiral. (Gordon Brown was in the same boat with Labour really). We might have seen him as grey and with a passion for peas but he was a lot better at his job than May is. May even makes Cameron look competent.

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Re: How long will Theresa May last as PM?

Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:53 pm

Major's problem is that Thatcher never lost.............like Brown's problem with Blair......

Gives them the lightweight tag when it comes to placing......

Cameron is lucky in a way because he made the Tories electable again after four election losers (Helped by Labour becoming long in the tooth and the banking crisis).....Major, Hague, Smith, Howard........They of course had the problem of Blair and a functioning Economy..

Brexit whilst being a huge negative can't change the fact the guy was a proven winner and politics is a binary choice for plenty of historians.....

My guess is history will be kind to Cameron....Competent or not..

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