Bertie's Relegation Prediction Thread - A Work in Progress

[No name Bertie]

I have devised a very simple forecast model to take into account the remaining fixture lists of the bottom ten Premiership teams, as of "week 28" of the season, to come up with a prediction of their final positions & the three teams to be relegated.   I will aim to update this every week until it becomes clearer which teams will be relegated. The model assumes all teams "do reasonably well / perform as expected" in their remaining fixtures.   It is based on home & away performance against three classes of team: Class 1 = Man City; Class 2 = Man Utd, Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal; Class 3 = the rest.

End of Week 37
All results for lower half teams were as expected except for:
Brighton 1 Man Utd 0
Stoke 1 Crystal Palace 2
Leicester 0 West Ham 2
WBA 1 Spurs 0
Man City 0 Huddersfield 0
Stoke are relegated and Brighton, West Ham and Crystal Palace have guaranteed safety.

One – Two Match Forecast Comment
Relegated: Stoke
Certainties to be Relegated: WBA
Favourite to be Relegated: Southampton
Still In Danger of Relegation: Huddersfield, Swansea
• All other teams ARE safe.
• Currently 38 points guarantees safety from relegation.
One - Two matches to go = 3 – 6 points to play for.

Rescheduled Matches from “Week’s 31 & 35”: 8th to 10th May
Swansea vs Southampton
Chelsea vs Huddersfield
Leicester vs Arsenal
Man City vs Brighton
Spurs vs Newcastle
West Ham vs Man Utd

Notes:
1) The most significant match is Swansea vs Southampton:
a) If either Swansea or Southampton win then WBA are relegated.
b) If Swansea win then Southampton become certainties for relegation.
c) If either Swansea or Southampton win then Huddersfield can secure safety by drawing at Chelsea.
2) If Huddersfield win they will secure safety.

Current Table

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Newcastle	36	-10	41
11	Crystal Palace	37	-12	41
12	Bournemouth	37	-17	41
13	Watford	37	-19	41
14	Brighton	36	-14	40
15	West Ham	36	-22	38
16	Huddersfield	36	-29	36
17	Southampton	36	-19	33
18	Swansea	36	-26	33
19	WBA	37	-23	31
20	Stoke	37	-34	30

Predicted Final Table (One to Two Match Forecast)

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Crystal Palace	38	-12	43
11	Newcastle	38	-13	41-42
12	Bournemouth	38	-18	41-42
13	Watford	38	-21	41
14	West Ham	38	-22	40-41
15	Brighton	38	-18	40
16	Swansea	38	-25	37
17	Huddersfield	38	-32	36-37
18	Southampton	38	-21	33-34
19	WBA	38	-24	31-32
20	Stoke	38	-35	30-31

[No name Bertie]

March 03 2018 17:10.

No major surprises so far, except Everton have to now be explicitly considered as they fall into the bottom half of the table. Still all things being equal, they are not in danger of relegation.

A "good" result for WBA would have been an away draw, but they lose at Watford. 6 losses in a row in all competitions, their morale must be very low, yet they have some home matches coming up that they need to try to win. At some point they might "give up" which will mean a great opportunity for those that play them. By all accounts they put up a fight at Watford, but ultimately a lack of quality or confidence in front of goal cost them.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

I think this counts as a "good result" by the parameters here.

Although what youve done is explain in a very long-winded way what a predictor is used for.

[No name Bertie]

Hi, if by "predictor" you mean the sort of thing that can be found on the BBC website where individuals fill in their predictions, then that is not a "model".  Models are automated and based on "parameterisations".  I am not saying my model is any good - just a reasonable starting point.

Brighton's result counts as a "better than expected (excellent) result" and the type of result that can break the "model forecast".  

The "forecast" for Southampton is currently relegation because Southampton have of their remaining 9 fixtures, 6 away matches, while two of their home matches are against Manchester City and Chelsea.  Basically Southampton have to win a few away matches to break the "forecast" of relegation.

[No name Bertie]

End of Week 28
Ten Match Forecast Comment
Highly Likely to be Relegated: WBA
Favourites to be Relegated: Stoke & Southampton
In Danger of Relegation: Crystal Palace, Swansea, Newcastle, Brighton
Other teams have breathing space, and all things being equal, should be safe.
Ten matches to go = thirty points to play for.

Current Table

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Watford	28	-9	33
11	Bournemouth	28	-10	32
12	Brighton	28	-11	31
13	West Ham	28	-15	30
14	Huddersfield	28	-23	30
15	Newcastle	28	-11	29
16	Southampton	28	-12	27
17	Crystal Palace	28	-18	27
18	Swansea	28	-20	27
19	Stoke	28	-26	26
20	WBA	28	-20	20

Predicted Final Table (Ten Match Forecast)

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Watford	38	-15	43 - 44
11	Bournemouth	38	-14	41
12	West Ham	38	-20	39 - 40
13	Huddersfield	38	-29	39 - 40
14	Brighton	38	-17	38
15	Newcastle	38	-16	37 - 38
16	Swansea	38	-24	37
17	Crystal Palace	38	-22	36
18	Southampton	38	-17	34
19	Stoke	38	-32	34
20	WBA	38	-24	29

[No name Bertie]

Very bad results (for my model forecast) - WBA eventually hammered at home against Leicester 1 - 4, and West Ham beaten heavily at home against Burnley 0 - 3.

That's three premiership losses in a row for West Ham, away to Liverpool (4-1), away to Swansea (4-1) and at home to Burnley (0-3). Though the loss at Liverpool was to be expected, they were heavily defeated away to relegation rival Swansea and eventually heavily beaten at home to Burnley. West Ham next two games are home games against Manchester United and Southampton. Obviously their home game against Southampton is going to be very important.

[Guest]

Very bad results (for my model forecast)

[No name Bertie]

End of Week 29
Best result of the week: Brighton 2 Arsenal 1
All other results were more or less as expected.

Nine Match Forecast Comment
Certainties to be Relegated:  WBA
Favourites to be Relegated: Southampton & Stoke
In Danger of Relegation: Crystal Palace, Newcastle, Swansea , West Ham, Huddersfield
Other teams have breathing space, and all things being equal, should be safe.
Nine matches to go = 27 points to play for.

Current Table

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Brighton	29	-10	34
11	Everton	29	-16	34
12	Bournemouth	29	-10	33
13	Swansea	29	-17	30
14	West Ham	29	-18	30
15	Huddersfield	29	-25	30
16	Newcastle	29	-13	29
17	Southampton	29	-12	28
18	Crystal Palace	29	-19	27
19	Stoke	29	-26	27
20	WBA	29	-21	20

Predicted Final Table (Nine Match Forecast)

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Everton	38	-18	42-43
11	Bournemouth	38	-13	41-42
12	Brighton	38	-16	40-41
13	Huddersfield	38	-29	39-40
14	West Ham	38	-22	39
15	Swansea	38	-22	38
16	Newcastle	38	-16	37-38
17	Crystal Palace	38	-22	35-36
18	Stoke	38	-31	34-35
19	Southampton	38	-18	33
20	WBA	38	-24	28-29

[No name Bertie]

Halftime.

Stoke vs Everton 0 - 0: Stoke have a player sent off in a game they really have to be winning.  My model assumes a home win or a draw.

Huddersfield vs Crystal Palace 0 - 1: my model doesn't take into account that Roy Hodgson is a highly experienced manager used to digging teams out of difficulty or that Palace have some great players.  It just assumes that this is going to be either a home win or a draw. But in reality Palace were completely dominant in terms of control and attack in the first half. Chalk and cheese. Wagner somehow has to pull this around (unlikely).

[No name Bertie]

Week 31 Final Results
Stoke vs Everton 1 - 2: I have to say that Paul Lambert was unlucky in having one of his players sent off and being reduced to ten men in the 30th minute of the first half.  Stoke had been dominant up to that point.  And then Paul Lambert was unlucky again in the second half.  He added substitute Choupo-Moting in the 72nd minute, who scored an equaliser for Stoke five minutes later but in the process injured himself and so had to be substituted in the 79th minute.  Everton then score the winner in the 84th minute.

Huddersfield 0 Crystal Palace 2:  Palace were convincing winners.  A very bad result for Huddersfield mitigated by the fact that Stoke also had a very bad result.

Bournemouth 2 WBA 1: a very good early performance by Pardew's team in the first half to go one - up. But Bournemouth came roaring back in the second half to expose WBA's lack of quality and come away with a home win.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

Huddersfield vs Crystal Palace 0 - 1: my model doesn't take into account that Roy Hodgson is a highly experienced manager used to digging teams out of difficulty or that Palace have some great players.

Nore?

[No name Bertie]

End of Week 30
All results more or less as expected EXCEPT FOR:
WBA 1 Leicester 4
West Ham 0 Burnley 3
Which represent very poor results for WBA and West Ham
• My simple model doesn’t account for momentum and at the moment West Ham have poor momentum losing their past three premiership matches 4-1, 4-1 and 0-3. Furthermore the atmosphere at West Ham’s home ground has turned extremely sour and with five home matches in their remaining fixtures it is imperative West Ham perform well at home to avoid relegation.
• I could comment on WBA but there is no point as they are as good as relegated as it stands.

Eight Match Forecast Comment
Certainties to be Relegated: WBA
Favourites to be Relegated: Southampton & Stoke
In Danger of Relegation: Crystal Palace, West Ham, Huddersfield, Newcastle, Swansea.
• Note that there is a closing of the gap between Stoke (currently a favourite for relegation) and the teams in danger of relegation. What with things that my model doesn’t take into account such as momentum and the change of manager at Southampton, things could begin to switch around over the coming rounds of matches.
• Other teams have breathing space, and all things being equal, should be safe.
Eight matches to go = 24 points to play for.

Current Table

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Everton	30	-11	36
11	Brighton	30	-12	34
12	Bournemouth	30	-13	33
13	Newcastle	30	-10	32
14	Swansea	30	-17	31
15	Huddersfield	30	-25	31
16	West Ham	30	-21	30
17	Southampton	30	-15	28
18	Crystal Palace	30	-20	27
19	Stoke	30	-28	27
20	WBA	30	-24	20

Predicted Final Table (Eight Match Forecast)

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Everton	38	-17	43-44
11	Bournemouth	38	-16	41
12	Brighton	38	-17	40
13	Newcastle	38	-14	38-39
14	Swansea	38	-21	38-39
15	Huddersfield	38	-29	38-39
16	West Ham	38	-26	37
17	Crystal Palace	38	-21	35-36
18	Stoke	38	-32	34-35
19	Southampton	38	-20	32-33
20	WBA	38	-28	26-27

[No name Bertie]

I just want to note that the West Ham vs Southampton match today is critical.  

If Southampton win at West Ham there will be a near six point swing in my model prediction and for the first time there will be a new favourite for relegation - West Ham rather than Southampton.  [My model turns this match from a so-called six-pointer into a "potential five four and a half-pointer" and no I am not going to try to explain that.]

I know that my model is a bit simple (rubbish some might say) but it does help to provide a yardstick in how the present may affect the future.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

It’s my favourite part of this website

[No name Bertie]

The relegation scrap is beginning to resolve itself.  Very bad result for Brighton, but Brighton has breathing space to absorb that home loss.  WBA continue to disappoint (another home loss).  WBA have 6 games remaining and probably need to win all of them to survive (having only won three so far): my model forecasts safety to be at around 37 to 38 points.

[Lowlandbrit]

I'm finding it hard to look past the three teams with the worst goal difference (Stoke, Huddersfield, WBA) at the moment.

[No name Bertie]

End of Week 31
Only four matches played. The remaining six have yet to be rescheduled. Hence “week 31” of the premiership is incomplete.
All results were as expected except for:
Stoke 1 Everton 2
Huddersfield 0 Crystal Palace 2
Very poor results for Stoke & Huddersfield, excellent result for Crystal Palace.

Seven - Eight Match Forecast Comment
Certainties to be Relegated: WBA
Favourites to be Relegated: Stoke & Southampton
In Danger of Relegation: Huddersfield, West Ham.
• Other teams have breathing space, and all things being equal, should be safe.
Seven - Eight matches to go = 21 – 24 points to play for

Current Table

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Bournemouth	31	-12	36
11	Watford	31	-16	36
12	Brighton	30	-12	34
13	Newcastle	30	-10	32
14	Swansea	30	-17	31
15	Huddersfield	31	-27	31
16	Crystal Palace	31	-18	30
17	West Ham	30	-21	30
18	Southampton	30	-15	28
19	Stoke	31	-29	27
20	WBA	31	-25	20

Predicted Final Table (Seven - Eight Match Forecast)

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Watford	38	-19	44-45
11	Bournemouth	38	-15	42
12	Brighton	38	-17	40
13	Newcastle	38	-14	38-39
14	Swansea	38	-21	38-39
15	Crystal Palace	38	-19	38
16	West Ham	38	-26	37
17	Huddersfield	38	-32	36-37
18	Southampton	38	-20	32-33
19	Stoke	38	-34	32-33
20	WBA	38	-28	26

[No name Bertie]

I'm finding it hard to look past the three teams with the worst goal difference (Stoke, Huddersfield, WBA) at the moment.

Hi, it is entirely possible that WBA, Stoke and Huddersfield could be relegated. But as it stands and given the remaining fixtures, Southampton have to start to pull off some notable away wins or have a win or two against a top six side, while Huddersfield have to perform somewhat poorly at home (they have two important home matches against Watford and Everton).

[Dolphin Ziggler]

You're very behind!

[No name Bertie]

No home wins, Newcastle and Burnley come away with away wins. Newcastle are now more or less safe from relegation.

[No name Bertie]

End of Week 32
All results for lower half teams were as expected except for:
Brighton 0 Leicester 2
WBA 1 Burnley 2
These represent poorer than expected results for WBA and Brighton (according to the model).

Six - Seven Match Forecast Comment
Certainties to be Relegated: WBA
Favourites to be Relegated: Southampton & Stoke
In Danger of Relegation: Huddersfield, Crystal Palace
• Other teams have breathing space, and all things being equal, should be safe.
Note: Six - Seven matches to go = 18 – 21 points to play for. “Week 31” round of matches incomplete

Current Table

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Bournemouth	32	-12	37
11	Watford	32	-16	37
12	Newcastle	31	-9	35
13	Brighton	31	-14	34
14	West Ham	31	-18	33
15	Swansea	31	-19	31
16	Huddersfield	32	-28	31
17	Crystal Palace	32	-19	30
18	Southampton	31	-18	28
19	Stoke	32	-32	27
20	WBA	32	-26	20

Predicted Final Table (Six to Seven Match Forecast)

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Watford	38	-19	43-44
11	Bournemouth	38	-15	42-43
12	Newcastle	38	-13	39-40
13	Swansea	38	-21	38-39
14	Brighton	38	-20	38
15	West Ham	38	-23	38
16	Crystal Palace	38	-19	37-38
17	Huddersfield	38	-32	36
18	Stoke	38	-35	32-33
19	Southampton	38	-23	32
20	WBA	38	-30	24

[Beer]

You're still a week behind. Newcastle are 10th on 38 points.

[Guest]

You're still a week behind. Newcastle are 10th on 38 points.

Not bad for a championship squad

[No name Bertie]

End of Week 33
All results for lower half teams were as expected except for:
Leicester 1 Newcastle 2
Watford 1 Burnley 2
Chelsea 1 West Ham 1
Newcastle, Burnley and West Ham performed much better than expected (according to the model). Newcastle are now effectively safe from relegation with three wins in a row. An oddity in this round of results was the fact that apart from Arsenal there were no home wins. Brighton slip into the “danger zone” after a home draw and following a home loss from last week. According to the model Brighton have no remaining winnable games but they do have games for which they can pick up a point (draw).

Five - Six Match Forecast Comment
Certainties to be Relegated: WBA
Favourites to be Relegated: Stoke & Southampton
In Danger of Relegation: Huddersfield, Brighton
• Other teams have breathing space, and all things being equal, should be safe.
Five - Six matches to go = 15 – 18 points to play for.
Note: “Week 31” round of matches are incomplete: one match has been rescheduled for 19th April and the rest for 8-10th May.

Week 34 Fixtures: 14th to 16th April
Southampton vs Chelsea
Burnley vs Leicester City
Crystal Palace vs Brighton
Huddersfield vs Watford
Swansea City vs Everton
Liverpool vs Bournemouth
Tottenham vs Man City
Newcastle vs Arsenal
Man United vs WBA
West Ham vs Stoke
Note: Week 35 round of matches begin just a day later from 17th April onwards.

Current Table

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Newcastle	32	-8	38
11	Bournemouth	33	-12	38
12	Watford	33	-17	37
13	Brighton	32	-14	35
14	West Ham	32	-18	34
15	Swansea	32	-19	32
16	Huddersfield	33	-28	32
17	Crystal Palace	33	-19	31
18	Southampton	32	-19	28
19	Stoke	33	-33	27
20	WBA	33	-26	21

Predicted Final Table (Five to Six Match Forecast)

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Newcastle	38	-12	42
11	Bournemouth	38	-15	41-42
12	Watford	38	-21	41-42
13	Swansea	38	-21	39
14	West Ham	38	-21	39
15	Crystal Palace	38	-19	38
16	Brighton	38	-20	37
17	Huddersfield	38	-32	36-37
18	Southampton	38	-22	32
19	Stoke	38	-35	32
20	WBA	38	-30	23

[Dolphin Ziggler]

 They do have games for which they can pick up a point (draw)

Your system has absolutely cracked this analysis business.

[No name Bertie]

If Southampton hold on for a home win against Chelsea AND Huddersfield lose at home to Watford, then we will have a new favourite for relegation - Huddersfield.

[Guest]

If Southampton hold on for a home win against Chelsea

Southampton 2-3 Chelsea - Giroud (2), Hazard

[No name Bertie]

So in the end  the results were more or less as expected with Southampton losing and Huddersfield winning.  

However Southampton were leading 2-0 heading into the 70th minute while there has been some doubt with regard the attitude of the Chelsea players with Conte likely leaving in the summer - but somehow they scored three goals in 8 minutes resulting in a home loss for Southampton but against a top six side.  

With Huddersfield there has been some doubt regarding their ability to score (less than one goal a game) but they managed to score in the 91st minute for a home win after withstanding attacking pressure from Watford in the earlier part of the game.

[No name Bertie]

Arsenal have not done very well away and given they had a tough game in Russia on Thursday evening, there must be a very good chance for Newcastle to get a win over them at home on Sunday just after midday (depending on Benitez's tactics) - as most Arsenal players will have at most one day of rest and one day of light training (assuming Wenger plays his strongest side). However the "expected result" for Newcastle vs Arsenal is either a home loss or a home draw.

[No name Bertie]

End of Week 34
All results for lower half teams were as expected except for:
Man Utd 0 WBA 1
Newcastle 2 Arsenal 1
With WBA and Newcastle performing much better than expected (according to the model). It is likely Arsenal suffered the effects of playing in Russia 2½ days previously and the effects of travelling back from Russia & up to Newcastle.

Four - Five Match Forecast Comment
Certainties to be Relegated: WBA
Favourites to be Relegated: Southampton & Stoke
In Danger of Relegation: Brighton, Huddersfield.
• Other teams have breathing space, and all things being equal, should be safe.
Four - Five matches to go = 12 – 15 points to play for.
Note: “Week 31” round of matches are incomplete: one match has been rescheduled for 19th April and the rest for 8-10th May.

”Week 35 Fixtures” 17th to 23rd April
One “week 35” fixture is postponed due to the FA Cup.
One “week 31” fixture is rescheduled in this period.
Note Burnley play twice and Huddersfield don’t play at all in this period.
Brighton vs Spurs
Bournemouth vs Man Utd
Burnley vs Chelsea [reschedule Week 31 Fixture]
Leicester vs Southampton
WBA vs Liverpool
Watford vs Crystal Palace
Arsenal vs West Ham
Stoke vs Burnley
Man City vs Swansea
Everton vs Newcastle

Current Table

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Newcastle	33	-7	41
11	Bournemouth	34	-15	38
12	Watford	34	-18	37
13	Brighton	33	-15	35
14	West Ham	33	-18	35
15	Huddersfield	34	-27	35
16	Crystal Palace	34	-18	34
17	Swansea	33	-19	33
18	Southampton	33	-20	28
19	Stoke	34	-33	28
20	WBA	34	-25	24

Predicted Final Table (Four to Five Match Forecast)

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Newcastle	38	-10	44-45
11	Bournemouth	38	-16	41-42
12	Watford	38	-21	41
13	Crystal Palace	38	-18	39
14	Swansea	38	-21	38
15	West Ham	38	-22	38
16	Huddersfield	38	-31	37-38
17	Brighton	38	-21	36-37
18	Stoke	38	-35	32-33
19	Southampton	38	-22	31-32
20	WBA	38	-27	26

[No name Bertie]

End of Week 35
All results for lower half teams were as expected.

Three - Four Match Forecast Comment
Certainties to be Relegated: WBA
Favourites to be Relegated: Stoke & Southampton  
In Danger of Relegation: Brighton.
• Other teams have breathing space, and all things being equal, should be safe.
• Currently 42 points guarantees safety from relegation.
Three - Four matches to go = 9 – 12 points to play for.
Note: “Week 31” & “Week 35” round of matches are incomplete: these have been rescheduled for 8-10th May.

”Week 36 Fixtures” 28th to 30th April
Liverpool vs Stoke
Burnley vs Brighton
Crystal Palace vs Leicester
Huddersfield vs Everton
Newcastle vs WBA
Southampton vs Bournemouth
Swansea vs Chelsea
West Ham vs Man City
Man United vs Arsenal
Spurs vs Watford

Note: WBA are expected to be relegated this week.  Anything other than a victory away to Newcastle will see them relegated.
WBA will also be relegated if Swansea beat Chelsea.  

It is also possible but unlikely for Stoke to be relegated this week.  However by the end of this week Stoke will likely fall into
the category of certainties to be relegated.

Current Table

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Newcastle	34	-8	41
11	Bournemouth	35	-17	38
12	Watford	35	-18	38
13	Brighton	34	-15	36
14	Crystal Palace	35	-18	35
15	West Ham	34	-21	35
16	Huddersfield	34	-27	35
17	Swansea	34	-24	33
18	Southampton	34	-20	29
19	Stoke	35	-33	29
20	WBA	35	-25	25

Predicted Final Table (Three to Four Match Forecast)

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Newcastle	38	-11	44
11	Bournemouth	38	-18	41
12	Watford	38	-22	40
13	Crystal Palace	38	-18	39-40
14	West Ham	38	-23	38
15	Swansea	38	-24	38
16	Huddersfield	38	-31	37-38
17	Brighton	38	-20	37
18	Southampton	38	-22	32
19	Stoke	38	-35	31-32
20	WBA	38	-27	26-27

[No name Bertie]

End of Week 36
All results for lower half teams were as expected except for:
Liverpool 0 Stoke 0
Huddersfield 0 Everton 2
Newcastle 0 WBA 1
The most significant result was Huddersfield losing at home to Everton. This puts Huddersfield very much at risk of relegation

Two - Three Match Forecast Comment
Certainties to be Relegated: WBA
Favourites to be Relegated: Stoke & Southampton
Next likely to be Relegated: Huddersfield
In Danger of Relegation: Swansea, Brighton, West Ham
• Other teams are safe or more or less safe.
• Currently 40 points guarantees safety from relegation.
Two - Three matches to go = 6 – 9 points to play for.
Note: “Week 31” & “Week 35” round of matches are incomplete: these have been rescheduled for 8-10th May.

“Week 37 Fixtures” 4th to 6th May
Brighton vs Man United
Stoke vs Crystal Palace
Bournemouth vs Swansea
Leicester vs West Ham
Watford vs Newcastle
WBA vs Spurs
Everton vs Southampton
Man City vs Huddersfield
Arsenal vs Burnley
Chelsea vs Liverpool

Notes:
1) There are three four ways WBA could be relegated this week: a) they do not beat Spurs. b) Swansea win at Bournemouth. c) Southampton win at Everton. d) Stoke beat Crystal Palace (because Swansea are scheduled to play both Stoke & Southampton).
2) If Stoke lose they could be relegated this week if Swansea draw at Bournemouth or Southampton win at Everton will be relegated this week because Swansea play Southampton next week. Stoke could also be relegated this week if they draw depending on other results.
3) If Huddersfield lose at Man City and Southampton win at Everton, then Huddersfield will replace Southampton as favourite for relegation.

Current Table

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Newcastle	35	-9	41
11	Crystal Palace	36	-13	38
12	Bournemouth	36	-18	38
13	Watford	36	-20	38
14	Brighton	35	-15	37
15	West Ham	35	-24	35
16	Huddersfield	35	-29	35
17	Swansea	35	-25	33
18	Southampton	35	-19	32
19	Stoke	36	-33	30
20	WBA	36	-24	28

Predicted Final Table (Two to Three Match Forecast)

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Newcastle	38	-12	42
11	Crystal Palace	38	-13	40-41
12	Bournemouth	38	-18	40-41
13	Watford	38	-22	40
14	West Ham	38	-25	38
15	Brighton	38	-20	37-38
16	Swansea	38	-25	37-38
17	Huddersfield	38	-34	35-36
18	Southampton	38	-21	33
19	Stoke	38	-33	32-33
20	WBA	38	-25	29

[No name Bertie]

Update: This season WBA Premiership Performance
Tony Pulis: ...... Played 12: Points 10: Points/game = 0.83:  Goals scored/game = 0.75: Goals conceded/game = 1.50
Gary Megson: .. Played 02: Points 02: Points/game = 1.00:  Goals scored/game = 1.50: Goals conceded/game = 1.50
Alan Pardew: ... Played 18: Points 08: Points/game = 0.44:  Goals scored/game = 0.72: Goals conceded/game = 1.67
Darren Moore: . Played 04: Points 08: Points/game = 2.00:  Goals scored/game = 1.25: Goals conceded/game = 0.75

Update: This season Watford Premiership Performance
Marco Silva: .... Played 24: Points 26: Points/game = 1.08:  Goals scored/game = 1.38: Goals conceded/game = 1.83
Javi Gracia: ..... Played 12: Points 12: Points/game = 1.00:  Goals scored/game = 0.83: Goals conceded/game = 1.58

[No name Bertie]

Brighton perform above expectation by beating Man Utd at home. They gain three points taking them to 40 points which guarantees them safety from relegation.  Brighton's last two games are away to Manchester City and away to Liverpool.

[No name Bertie]

Stoke lose at home to Crystal Palace.  This means they are relegated because they now cannot catch Huddersfield, and they cannot catch both of Swansea and Southampton, because Swansea and Southampton play against each other next Tuesday, so at least one of them will finish above Stoke.

The reason for Stoke's relegation seems to be a lack of defensive energy and a lack of quality in attack; when they lose the ball not enough players are willing to track back - leaving the defence exposed.  Despite having a top goalkeeper in Jack Butland they have conceded 67 goals and only scored 34 goals.  The die was set under Mark Hughes management.

[No name Bertie]

With the results to date (following Saturday May 5th), 38 points guarantees safety. So West Ham have avoided relegation with their win away at Leicester. Currently:
a) Stoke are relegated.
b) WBA are certainties to be relegated (but a heroic effort so far from Darren Moore).
c) One of Southampton, Huddersfield and Swansea will be relegated: Southampton are favorites to be relegated, followed by Huddersfield and then Swansea.

[No name Bertie]

End of Week 37
All results for lower half teams were as expected except for:
Brighton 1 Man Utd 0
Stoke 1 Crystal Palace 2
Leicester 0 West Ham 2
WBA 1 Spurs 0
Man City 0 Huddersfield 0
Stoke are relegated and Brighton, West Ham and Crystal Palace have guaranteed safety.  

One – Two Match Forecast Comment
Relegated: Stoke
Certainties to be Relegated: WBA
Favourite to be Relegated: Southampton
Still In Danger of Relegation: Huddersfield, Swansea
• All other teams ARE safe.
• Currently 38 points guarantees safety from relegation.
Note: One - Two matches to go = 3 – 6 points to play for.

Rescheduled Matches from “Week’s 31 & 35”: 8th to 10th May
Swansea vs Southampton
Chelsea vs Huddersfield
Leicester vs Arsenal
Man City vs Brighton
Spurs vs Newcastle
West Ham vs Man Utd

Notes:  
1) The most significant match is Swansea vs Southampton:
a) If either Swansea or Southampton win then WBA are relegated.  
b) If Swansea win then Southampton become certainties for relegation.
c) As pointed out by Dolphin Ziggler below, if Southampton win they become certainties to stay up (by means of goal difference over Swansea).
d) If either Swansea or Southampton win then Huddersfield can secure safety by drawing at Chelsea.
2) If Huddersfield win they will secure safety.

Current Table

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Newcastle	36	-10	41
11	Crystal Palace	37	-12	41
12	Bournemouth	37	-17	41
13	Watford	37	-19	41
14	Brighton	36	-14	40
15	West Ham	36	-22	38
16	Huddersfield	36	-29	36
17	Southampton	36	-19	33
18	Swansea	36	-26	33
19	WBA	37	-23	31
20	Stoke	37	-34	30

Predicted Final Table (One to Two Match Forecast)

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Crystal Palace	38	-12	43
11	Newcastle	38	-13	41-42
12	Bournemouth	38	-18	41-42
13	Watford	38	-21	41
14	West Ham	38	-22	40-41
15	Brighton	38	-18	40
16	Swansea	38	-25	37
17	Huddersfield	38	-32	36-37
18	Southampton	38	-21	33-34
19	WBA	38	-24	31-32
20	Stoke	38	-35	30-31

[Dolphin Ziggler]

All results went as expect except half.
Southampton are all but safe if they beat Swansea as there’d need at least a nine goal swing

[No name Bertie]

So WBA, Stoke and free-falling Swansea are relegated, while Southampton and Huddersfield survive with one game to play.

Overall the model was probably the simplest model possible to take into account the remaining fixtures to be played with ten rounds of games to go.

To improve the model, to make it slightly less simple, I have noticed a few factors that could be introduced to improve the model. The most important factor is "momentum" - when a team goes on either a "good run" or a "bad run". This was why the model failed to recognise the danger to Swansea until more or less the last moment.

[Ent]

The last 2 month moment...

Who did the model predict relegation for initially?

[No name Bertie]

My ten match forecast (30 points remaining) is given below. I had WBA, Stoke and Southampton as favourites. They remained favourites until this mid-week series of rescheduled games - when Swansea blew their chances, and Southampton and Huddersfield endeavoured to get the points to drag themselves to safety. Southampton are not "mathematically safe" but they are three points ahead of Swansea with a far superior goal difference.

End of Week 28
Ten Match Forecast Comment
Highly Likely to be Relegated: WBA
Favourites to be Relegated: Stoke & Southampton
In Danger of Relegation: Crystal Palace, Swansea, Newcastle, Brighton
Other teams have breathing space, and all things being equal, should be safe.
Ten matches to go = thirty points to play for.

Predicted Final Table (Ten Match Forecast)

Position	Football Team	Played	GD	Points
----------	------------------	--------	------	--------
10	Watford	38	-15	43 - 44
11	Bournemouth	38	-14	41
12	West Ham	38	-20	39 - 40
13	Huddersfield	38	-29	39 - 40
14	Brighton	38	-17	38
15	Newcastle	38	-16	37 - 38
16	Swansea	38	-24	37
17	Crystal Palace	38	-22	36
18	Southampton	38	-17	34
19	Stoke	38	-32	34
20	WBA	38	-24	29

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