6N 2018: Wales v Scotland, 3 February

WALES v SCOTLAND
3 February 2018
KO: 14:15 GMT
Principality Stadium, Cardiff

Live on [ITV, RTE, SC4, FR2, DMAX / BBC (H)]

Referee: Pascal Gaüzère (France)
Assistant 1: Romain Poite (France)
Assistant 2: Matthew Carley (England)
TMO: David Grashoff (England)

A. Head to Head

122 Played 122
70 Won 49
3 Drawn 3
49 Lost 70
1,624 Points 1,263

B. Recent Form

9 March 2013
Murrayfield, Edinburgh
18–28 to Wales

15 March 2014
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
51–3 to Wales

15 February 2015
Murrayfield, Edinburgh
23–26 to Wales

13 February 2016
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
27–23 to Wales

25 February 2017
Murrayfield, Edinburgh
29–13 to Scotland

C. Teams

WALES 

Leigh Halfpenny (Scarlets); Josh Adams (Worcester), Scott Williams (Scarlets), Hadleigh Parkes (Scarlets), Steff Evans (Scarlets); Rhys Patchell (Scarlets), Gareth Davies (Scarlets); Rob Evans (Scarlets), Ken Owens (Scarlets), Samson Lee (Scarlets), Cory Hill (Dragons), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys, capt), Aaron Shingler (Scarlets), Josh Navidi (Cardiff Blues), Ross Moriarty (Gloucester).

Replacements: Elliot Dee (Dragons), Wyn Jones (Scarlets), Tomas Francis (Exeter Chiefs), Bradley Davies (Ospreys), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Aled Davies (Scarlets), Gareth Anscombe (Cardiff Blues), Owen Watkin (Ospreys).

SCOTLAND

Stuart Hogg (Glasgow Warriors); Tommy Seymour (Glasgow Warriors), Chris Harris (Newcastle Falcons), Huw Jones (Glasgow Warriors), Byron McGuigan (Sale Sharks); Finn Russell (Glasgow Warriors), Ali Price (Glasgow Warriors); Gordon Reid (London Irish), Stuart McInally (Edinburgh), Jon Welsh (Newcastle Falcons), Ben Toolis (Edinburgh), Jonny Gray, John Barclay (Scarlets, captain), Hamish Watson (Edinburgh), Cornell du Preez (Edinburgh).

Replacements: Scott Lawson (Newcastle Falcons), Jamie Bhatti (Glasgow Warriors), Murray McCallum (Edinburgh), Grant Gilchrist (Edinburgh), Ryan Wilson (Glasgow Warriors), Greig Laidlaw (Clermont Auvergne), Pete Horne (Glasgow Warriors), Sean Maitland (Saracens).

The day of the broken Scottish dreams.

Two factors will decide this IMO
1) can Scotland gain parity or something close to it in the scrums?
2) Will Wales continue with kicking the ball away every time they gain possession in their own half? If they do then I back Scotland to control possession as they will look to counter attack of every kick reception and wales will not see much of the ball.

Wales v Scotland

Referee: Pascal Gauzere (France)
Assistant 1: Romain Poite (France)
Assistant 2: Matthew Carley (England)
TMO: David Grashoff (England)

Massive for Scotland to have Hogg back, he looked in excellent form on the weekend.

A lot of people seem to be writing Wales off, I think this could be a big mistake. Wales remain a very good team and always turn up for the 6N. That said, Wales' first game in the 6N is generally a disaster.

Scotland are also on the up and play a very attractive brand of rugby.

This will be a very tight game to call I feel.

What is the prognosis on Dan Biggar after he limped off at the weekend?

Who would play there if he is ruled out?

The concern for me about Scotland (well 'concern' is maybe a bit strong as both Scotland and Wales are rivals in this contest and I hope they have a low scoring draw )...but the concern I have is that Wales, when their tales are up, have always naturally played a better Scottish game than the Scottish themselves - than any of us really, except maybe vintage France, but we haven't seen vintage France for a few decades now.

If Scotland are so sharp at counter attack/loose and spacey rugby, and if that forces Gatland and the Welsh players into reconsidering a 'kicking the ball away' tactic and rather hold onto it and try to run it where it needs to go - then yes, the 6N will be in for an exciting and explosive game.  But even though Scotland seem to love and have the lungs for such a game, I still feel that Welsh players do it more naturally when the coaching stops and they are given licence to just throw it about at high tempo.

Wales will be fit.  They'll be super fit or Gatland ain't Gatland any more.  So they'll have 80 minutes of frantic stuff in them.  If Scotland want to lure them into that unstructured kind of game then it might be them that suffers.  If I were Townsend, I'd probably choose this game to be the most boringly structured.... I'd concentrate on keeping defensive shape for large segments of the game and rely on some cute uptempo moments to gain the points.

TJ wrote:Two factors will decide this IMO
1) can Scotland gain parity or something close to it in the scrums?  
2) Will Wales continue with kicking the ball away every time they gain possession in their own half?  If they do then I back Scotland to control possession as they will look to counter attack of every kick reception and wales will not see much of the ball.

I'm inclined to agree with this. Wales were statistically the least clinical 6n team in 2017. It would follow therefore that Wales need a lot of ball to win games.

I don't think we will win this game.  Injuries and our woeful record in Cardiff makes me fear this game.

We're down to last man standing, near enough, in the front row, with Scott Lawson almost certain to be on the bench.  He wasn't up to much 4 years ago when he got his last cap, I can't imagine he's significantly improved in that time.  Our centres are injuring themselves fairly consistently as well.

I fully expect McInally to go down with an injury in the opening mins of the game, leaving us to play 70+ mins with Lawson and then undoubtedly Russell will pick up a knock leaving us with Horne who's far from the same level, and I'm sure Hogg will run into someone or be so keen to prove himself after the lions miss and injuries that he'll step over the line and get sin binned, or worse.  During which time Wales will decide they fancy being the harlem globetrotters of international rugby and run up a cricket score.

Sorry for the pessimism/optimism (if you're Welsh), but it happens every year and whilst I'm normally optimistic about our chances I think this year we actually have a chance of doing something, which guarantees we won't.

EWT Spoons wrote:I  don't think we will win this game.  Injuries and our woeful record in Cardiff  makes me fear this game.

We're down to last man standing, near enough, in the front row, with Scott Lawson almost certain to be on the bench.  He wasn't up to much 4 years ago when he got his last cap, I can't imagine he's significantly improved in that time.  Our centres are injuring themselves fairly consistently as well.

I fully expect McInally to go down with an injury in the opening mins of the game, leaving us to play 70+ mins with Lawson and then undoubtedly Russell will pick up a knock leaving us with Horne who's far from the same level, and I'm sure Hogg will run into someone or be so keen to prove himself after the lions miss and injuries that he'll step over the line and get sin binned, or worse.  During which time Wales will decide they fancy being the harlem globetrotters of international rugby and run up a cricket score.

Sorry for the pessimism/optimism (if you're Welsh), but it happens every year and whilst I'm normally optimistic about our chances I think this year we actually have a chance of doing something, which guarantees we won't.

It's not like Wales don't have injuries.

Biggar, Faletau, Warburton, J. Davies. 4 missing Lions.

SecretFly wrote:The concern for me about Scotland (well 'concern' is maybe a bit strong as both Scotland and Wales are rivals in this contest and I hope they have a low scoring draw )...but the concern I have is that Wales, when their tales are up, have always naturally played a better Scottish game than the Scottish themselves - than any of us really, except maybe vintage France, but we haven't seen vintage France for a few decades now.

Not sure we have seen much of that 'natural flair' from Wales for some time either to be honest. The last few years they became the crash ball centre team with Roberts at 12.

the best game of the opening round this, which is annoying as ill be playing so will miss it

If I were Townsend, I'd probably choose this game to be the most boringly structured....

I simply don't see that happening - or not in the way you see it. Much of Scotlands / glasgows apparently off the cuff stuff is scripted and the players simply are not used to playing a safety first game.

The trad Scottish game is using back row forwards to swamp the opposition and a lot of kicking and crash ball off the 9/10. thats not how scotland have been playing in recent years

IMO Scotland are now playing what would have been in years gone by the trad welsh way and Wales more the trad scots way

;-)

eirebilly wrote:

SecretFly wrote:The concern for me about Scotland (well 'concern' is maybe a bit strong as both Scotland and Wales are rivals in this contest and I hope they have a low scoring draw )...but the concern I have is that Wales, when their tales are up, have always naturally played a better Scottish game than the Scottish themselves - than any of us really, except maybe vintage France, but we haven't seen vintage France for a few decades now.

Not sure we have seen much of that 'natural flair' from Wales for some time either to be honest. The last few years they became the crash ball centre team with Roberts at 12.

I don't know, billy. They try to win with crashball. But it's a cliché to say that because they are coached to play it, that they don't have anything else in them as players.... and they do, as we all know. If they are losing, they usually kinda start losing the crashball structure too and start chasing by dashing do high risk stuff. And let nobody tell me they don't have the tools to do dashing daring do stuff. There are reams of the stuff on Youtube I'm sure...even during Gatland's time.

These maxims about Crashball and nothing else are inaccurate - always have been.

TJ wrote:

If I were Townsend, I'd probably choose this game to be the most boringly structured....

I simply don't see that happening - or not in the way you see it.  Much of Scotlands / glasgows apparently off the cuff stuff is scripted and the players simply are not used to playing a safety first game.

Well yeah............. that was kinda my point. Like you said in your later post. Scotland doing it the traditional Welsh way. But Plan B is always good to have and if Townsend isn't coaching one then maybe things might go very badly IF they start to go badly at all. But a Plan B is nice to have - two ways of playing.

Scottrf wrote:

EWT Spoons wrote:I  don't think we will win this game.  Injuries and our woeful record in Cardiff  makes me fear this game.

We're down to last man standing, near enough, in the front row, with Scott Lawson almost certain to be on the bench.  He wasn't up to much 4 years ago when he got his last cap, I can't imagine he's significantly improved in that time.  Our centres are injuring themselves fairly consistently as well.

I fully expect McInally to go down with an injury in the opening mins of the game, leaving us to play 70+ mins with Lawson and then undoubtedly Russell will pick up a knock leaving us with Horne who's far from the same level, and I'm sure Hogg will run into someone or be so keen to prove himself after the lions miss and injuries that he'll step over the line and get sin binned, or worse.  During which time Wales will decide they fancy being the harlem globetrotters of international rugby and run up a cricket score.

Sorry for the pessimism/optimism (if you're Welsh), but it happens every year and whilst I'm normally optimistic about our chances I think this year we actually have a chance of doing something, which guarantees we won't.

It's not like Wales don't have injuries.

Biggar, Faletau, Warburton, J. Davies. 4 missing Lions.

Of course, and I'm not looking to get into a "who's more injured contest" as to be honest that sounds like a terrible game, but if you look at the experience in the Welsh team (avg caps 27) vs Scotland (avg caps 20) then the players Wales are bringing in, have a bit more experience at this level.

Main thing is that most of the Scottish injuries are in the same positions, we’re missing around 10 players from the front row alone, which is what’s causing my concern, and the 10 are not squad filler, arguably each player who is injured would potentially start ahead of the players who’re likely to start in Cardiff.

SecretFly wrote:

eirebilly wrote:

SecretFly wrote:The concern for me about Scotland (well 'concern' is maybe a bit strong as both Scotland and Wales are rivals in this contest and I hope they have a low scoring draw )...but the concern I have is that Wales, when their tales are up, have always naturally played a better Scottish game than the Scottish themselves - than any of us really, except maybe vintage France, but we haven't seen vintage France for a few decades now.

Not sure we have seen much of that 'natural flair' from Wales for some time either to be honest. The last few years they became the crash ball centre team with Roberts at 12.

I don't know, billy.  They try to win with crashball.  But it's a cliché to say that because they are coached to play it, that they don't have anything else in them as players.... and they do, as we all know.  If they are losing, they usually kinda start losing the crashball structure too and start chasing by dashing do high risk stuff.  And let nobody tell me they don't have the tools to do dashing daring do stuff.  There are reams of the stuff on Youtube I'm sure...even during Gatland's time.

These maxims about Crashball and nothing else are inaccurate - always have been.

Wales certainly have the potential to play attractive expansive rugby, just take the Scarlets for example. One of my favourite teams to watch. Just feel in recent years Wales have gone away from that expansive rugby that made them an absolute joy to watch.

When the Scarlets really started motoring a season ago and playing a really attractive brand of rugby, it did make me wonder whether Gats and Howley would have the chops to actually use that attacking talent and systems. Not convinced. 

Some of the comments on these boards are very interesting. Some people have very short memories of the AI. And yes, I am well aware that the Six Nations is "different". Apart from the fact that the sport is the same, the teams are broadly the same and their tactics will be identical.

George Carlin wrote:When the Scarlets really started motoring a season ago and playing a really attractive brand of rugby, it did make me wonder whether Gats and Howley would have the chops to actually use that attacking talent and systems. Not convinced. 

Some of the comments on these boards are very interesting. Some people have very short memories of the AI. And yes, I am well aware that the Six Nations is "different". Apart from the fact that the sport is the same, the teams are broadly the same and their tactics will be identical.

Personally, I just have long enough memory of 6 Nations home advantage.

The Six Nations is different.... though.

That's what we're all aware of.  If it's a fact, it's a fact.  You can't say it's a fact and then ignore the fact to talk about the AIs instead.

Scotland could do a big number on Wales, playing the brand of rugby they are playing now - and Wales seem to have been having trouble recently with injuries cropping up with central players.  So the job might be easier still.

But I say again, it's inaccurate to say Gatland's Wales only plays one way and are incapable of having a 'cutting lose' period in an 80 minute game.  I've seen too many moments when they ( a Gatland team) get into an unstoppable 'rage' of unstructured stuff and clock up scores.... and yes, with Scarlets there is proof that they can do it still as players.

If Scotland win the way they play, I won't be surprised this year.  But if Wales win by slicing Scotland, (arriving in a very confident mood) apart - in a 6N - a real competition with a title and a cup up for asking, and Gatland at the helm?), I won't be shocked either.  It seems some here would be?

Potentially a great game on our doorstep.

Wales showed that they were trying to play a different brand of rugby in the AIs, albeit in the early stages of change and therefore full of mistakes. The dropping of a fit (at the time) Jamie Roberts and the experiment with a 2nd receiver at 12 was some evidence of a change of gameplan. There was much more offloading from Wales too, but again it was rusty and error strewn as it was a new system and style for that squad under that coach. Hansen commented after the NZ game that this was a different Wales, even though the end result was much the same as always. I do genuinely think that the Lions tour and the use of two 10s at 10 and 12 has opened Gatlands eyes a little and he's trying to bring that in now. It'll take time, but there's evidence that Wales are evolving. Whether this 6N will see the finished article is debatable, but if world cup planning is the aim then it may be that this 6N is sacrificed to experiment in the new style.

I full expect a Scotland win, such is their improvement compared to Wales' decline in recent years. However, I agree that there is something different with Wales and 6N compared to Wales and the AIs. Maybe Wales just don't, collectively, get themselves up for the friendlies while other nations do? In soccer you have some teams who don't seem to do so well in friendlies but have a better showing in the tournaments. Why not the same for Wales in rugby? It could explain why there appears to be no correlation between Wales' AI form and 6N form.

Scotland won't be able to play sexy rugby if they don't have a platform.

Its a must win game for both teams if they have any hope of winning the whole thing.

I'll happily smash their scrum and get three points or pin them back at every oppotunity

It will be the Turk front row starting - and look how they did against the Toulon pack.

Might be worth mentioning that a largely 2nd/3rd string Edinburgh pack more or less had parity at scrum time with a first choice Stade pack at the weekend.  

Cockerill seems able to turn coal into diamonds almost at will.  

Trade secrets from the Tigers Academy no doubt.

des wrote:Might be worth mentioning that a largely 2nd/3rd string Edinburgh pack more or less had parity at scrum time with a first choice Stade pack at the weekend.  

Cockerill seems able to turn coal into diamonds almost at will.  

Trade secrets from the Tigers Academy no doubt.

I wouldn't quite call it parity - we were clear second best but held our own in some scrums better than expected. We were driven off our own ball at one point!

des wrote:Might be worth mentioning that a largely 2nd/3rd string Edinburgh pack more or less had parity at scrum time with a first choice Stade pack at the weekend.  

Cockerill seems able to turn coal into diamonds almost at will.  

Trade secrets from the Tigers Academy no doubt.

Still got beaten though

Not confident at all in this game. Will we even have any professional front rowers left in Scotland?

Our ability to tittyhands this up is legendary.....

Wales are easily favorites.

Wales will certainly be favourites but Scotland have a good chance - if they can get something close to parity up front. And that's a huge IF!

I dunno - lots of people writing us off already.

Odds from Willy Hill

Wales - 4/6
Scotland 5/4

Probably a fair reflection of things.

RDW_Scotland wrote:Odds from Willy Hill

Wales - 4/6
Scotland 5/4

Probably a fair reflection of things.

Would agree, about right.

Scottrf wrote:

RDW_Scotland wrote:Odds from Willy Hill

Wales - 4/6
Scotland 5/4

Probably a fair reflection of things.

Would agree, about right.

Yeah seems about right. If you look at the rankings, once you factor in home advantage for Wales (+3 pts) they're 0.97 points ahead of Scotland.

As others have said, scrums might be the key.

Scotland scored 41 tries to Wales 22 last season there's only going to be one team playing "sexy" rugby here. I'm just worried about the Scottish platform, Wales don't have a great scrum but it is good enough to have a stronghold up front if Scotland get any more injuries. The start is crucial it'll probably be a close game no blowout here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHxy94CETmI

monty junior wrote:Wales don't have a great scrum

munkian wrote:

des wrote:Might be worth mentioning that a largely 2nd/3rd string Edinburgh pack more or less had parity at scrum time with a first choice Stade pack at the weekend.  

Cockerill seems able to turn coal into diamonds almost at will.  

Trade secrets from the Tigers Academy no doubt.

Still got beaten though

Aye, sorry about that.
I'd rather have been going to Rodney Parade if we beat the Blues than back to Paris.

That's not meant to demean the Dragons, more a comment on the Stade pitch.

I think a lot of people will be surprised by the Welsh pack this year.

Ken Owens
Samson Lee
Rob Evans
AWJ
Bradley Davies
Tuperic
Navidi/Shingler
Moriarty

Thats not a bad pack, with a lot of very good replacements on the bench as well.

Wales favourites>< 2 places and more than 2 pts behind in the rankings and a much worse AI series?

Pretty even stevens I would say with home advantage nullifying scotland better last couple of years

LordDowlais wrote:I think a lot of people will be surprised by the Welsh pack this year.

Ken Owens
Samson Lee
Rob Evans
AWJ
Bradley Davies
Tuperic
Navidi/Shingler
Moriarty

Thats not a bad pack, with a lot of very good replacements on the bench as well.

Don't think anyone would say that is a bad pack, LD - was very competitive with the All Blacks for the entire game.

I'm nervous about it. But with Scotland, it's all about feeding that backline from quick ruck ball and that depends on Barclay and Watson being fit.

If Barclay, Watson, Tipuric and Navidi all play (4 opensides at once) it's going to be epic at the breakdown.

Am I correct in hearing that Biggar is out of the 6N? That would be a huge blow to Wales.

Dan Biggar has been ruled out of the first 3 rounds - I wonder if the odds will change in our favour now! Huge blow for Wales.

Aahh, only 3 rounds. I heard it was the entire tournament.

I think our decimated front row and home advantage will prove too much, and Wales will win.  

If by some miracle we can get parity at the scrum then you never know, but I don't rate Reid particularly highly, he's an ok player but nothing more.  McInally is in superb form for club, and for country in the AIs, so no worries about him, and Welsh, I've not seen enough of lately.  GeordieFalcon (I think) in another thread commented that there had been a lot of scrum penalties against Newcastle, but no idea if that was on Welsh's side of the scrum.

I would imagine that would be our starting front row, but equally we could see Bhatti, who's young and still learning, at LH with Rae or McCallum at TH, all of whom have less than 20 starts at club level*.

In saying all that, if Wales don't destroy us at the scrum, there will be a lot of judgement about their ability.

* according to the Glasgow and Edinburgh websites

So with Biggar and Priestland out, what do Wales do? In the AIs they went the two playmakers route, with mixed results. At times it seemed promising, but they weren't quite used to the system yet, so mistakes did occur. However, without their two first choice FHs, do they stick that route? Or push Williams (O.) to FH instead? I'm guessing the other options for FH are Patchell and Anscombe?

eirebilly wrote:Aahh, only 3 rounds. I heard it was the entire tournament.

There's probably a chance it may end up that way - I'm sure Wales will want to put a positive spin on it at this stage. Either way with Priestland out it is a huge blow.

I'm assuming this will mean 1/2P starts at fullback for his goalkicking?

RDW_Scotland wrote:

eirebilly wrote:Aahh, only 3 rounds. I heard it was the entire tournament.

There's probably a chance it may end up that way - I'm sure Wales will want to put a positive spin on it at this stage.  Either way with Priestland out it is a huge blow.

I'm assuming this will mean 1/2P starts at fullback for his goalkicking?

With Liam Williams injury concerns (as well as North), chances of 1/2p playing were always pretty high I feel. Not sure about Patchell or Anscombe, but Owen Williams is a decent goalkicker, so they should not have to use 1/2p purely because of kicking.

RDW_Scotland wrote:Dan Biggar has been ruled out of the first 3 rounds - I wonder if the odds will change in our favour now! Huge blow for Wales.

Do you know what ?

I do not mean this in a nasty way, but I am glad Gatlands hands will be forced over this. Dan Biggar is an outstanding outside half, but he is nearing 30 now, and nobody seems to have even been considered as his competition, it's time for Rhys Patchell or Owen Williams or even Sam Davies to put their hands up now, and rise to the challenge.

Priestland should be nowhere near the Welsh squad, we have better players in Wales. No doubt Gatland will start with Anscombe, but I would in all honesty play Patchell, the trouble is, he does not fit Gatlands remit, he likes to run with the ball in hand, and he is very good at it, as we have seen with Scarlets, his kicking can be a bit flakey, and he misses touch sometimes, but we have Halfpenny taking spot kicks.

In saying that, Gatland has been banging on about changing the style of play, so perhaps Patchell will get his chance.

Wales are still learning to play the new way. If Scotland get parity at the scrum, they really should be able to pull apart Wales. That may be down to the ref more than anything. Where it gets difficult for Scotland is when the subs come on. Francis is a top tighthead and Bhatti will likely have a heck of a battle (although he recently took on Exeter and may have confidence from that).