Brexit

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Brexit

Post by navyblueshorts on Wed 18 Oct 2017, 8:51 pm

First topic message reminder :

Galted wrote:It will stop foreigners praying in our mosques.
Laugh
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Re: Brexit

Post by navyblueshorts on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 3:14 pm

Scottrf wrote:Uuurgh. Your 'you voted leave, you're racist' stance is tiresome and moronic.
Rolling Eyes As is your predictable knee-jerk reaction. How many times? Obviously, not everyone who voted leave did so for xenophobic reasons. Does one have to qualify every statement to clarify that not everyone behaved the same way for exactly the same reasons?

Let's not drag this down any more.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Samo on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 3:50 pm

Steffan wrote:
Scottrf wrote:Uuurgh. Your 'you voted leave, you're racist' stance is tiresome and moronic
I agree. Not everyone who voted Leave is racist. It is silly to suggest that. All the racist people I know voted Leave though

When you break down the Leave arguments the only tangible one left is immigration and even then thats on a shoogley peg.

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Re: Brexit

Post by navyblueshorts on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 4:19 pm

Samo wrote:
Steffan wrote:
Scottrf wrote:Uuurgh. Your 'you voted leave, you're racist' stance is tiresome and moronic
I agree. Not everyone who voted Leave is racist. It is silly to suggest that. All the racist people I know voted Leave though

When you break down the Leave arguments the only tangible one left is immigration and even then thats on a shoogley peg.
Had to look that one up!
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Re: Brexit

Post by Dave. on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 4:20 pm

Schulz advocating a United States of Europe and the continuing direction of ever closer union is a pretty tangible argument for Leaving I'd have thought.

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Re: Brexit

Post by JuliusHMarx on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 4:35 pm

Dave. wrote:Schulz advocating a United States of Europe and the   continuing direction of ever closer union is a pretty tangible argument for Leaving I'd have thought.

Actually, for me, that's a pretty tangible argument for voting Remain.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Samo on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 4:46 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
Dave. wrote:Schulz advocating a United States of Europe and the   continuing direction of ever closer union is a pretty tangible argument for Leaving I'd have thought.

Actually, for me, that's a pretty tangible argument for voting Remain.

Its such a ludicrous notion that only Leavers could actually believe it.

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Re: Brexit

Post by navyblueshorts on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 5:13 pm

Samo wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Dave. wrote:Schulz advocating a United States of Europe and the   continuing direction of ever closer union is a pretty tangible argument for Leaving I'd have thought.

Actually, for me, that's a pretty tangible argument for voting Remain.

Its such a ludicrous notion that only Leavers could actually believe it.
Long-term, I don't see why not. It would seem logical that as communication, travel etc get ever easier, there are less barriers due to a lack of understanding of 'others'. Clearly a very complex issue, but why is it a ludicrous notion?

Why not a Federal form of the EU? Details to be worked out over some time. The trouble with the UK, is we never ever engaged and preferred to carp on from the sidelines. If we'd actually engaged, we could have been a major shaper of the EU endpoint. Never mind, we can just be a little island on our own in the North Atlantic...
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Re: Brexit

Post by Dave. on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 5:16 pm

Well Maastricht and Lisbon happened, didn't they? No British veto used there.

The solution from the EU and predecessors has always been "more Europe". I think more Europe is the problem. Perhaps if a referendum had been granted on Maastricht or Lisbon, things may have been different but we are where we are. If the other countries want a US of E, that's up to them. I don't/didn't want the UK to be part of it, though.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Duty281 on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 6:16 pm

Hero wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Hero wrote:That data is from May last year Duty, there has been a continued shift since that date.

YouGov did the following in October which showed still a majority for Leave but very much a show of Bregret.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/10/27/there-has-been-shift-against-brexit-public-still-t/


Indeed, and it was backed up by 85% or so voting for parties at the 2017 GE that pledged to Leave.

The YouGov data that I mentioned earlier, and that you’ve highlighted, shows very little change.

Very little change though is all that's required, 52% to 48% is a very thin margin.

True, you would need about just under 3% of Leave voters to switch to Remain, presuming the Remain vote holds firm.

But that is unlikely.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Duty281 on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 6:17 pm

Samo wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Dave. wrote:Schulz advocating a United States of Europe and the   continuing direction of ever closer union is a pretty tangible argument for Leaving I'd have thought.

Actually, for me, that's a pretty tangible argument for voting Remain.

Its such a ludicrous notion that only Leavers could actually believe it.

You clearly haven’t been following developments since Juncker became President of the European Commission in 2014.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Duty281 on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 6:24 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
Samo wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Dave. wrote:Schulz advocating a United States of Europe and the   continuing direction of ever closer union is a pretty tangible argument for Leaving I'd have thought.

Actually, for me, that's a pretty tangible argument for voting Remain.

Its such a ludicrous notion that only Leavers could actually believe it.
Long-term, I don't see why not. It would seem logical that as communication, travel etc get ever easier, there are less barriers due to a lack of understanding of 'others'. Clearly a very complex issue, but why is it a ludicrous notion?

Why not a Federal form of the EU? Details to be worked out over some time. The trouble with the UK, is we never ever engaged and preferred to carp on from the sidelines. If we'd actually engaged, we could have been a major shaper of the EU endpoint. Never mind, we can just be a little island on our own in the North Atlantic...

Yeah, a little island on its own, whilst somehow managing to be involved in over 100 international organisations and its capital being one of the financial centres of the world.

Funny that.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Duty281 on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 6:26 pm

Dave. wrote:Well Maastricht and Lisbon happened, didn't they? No British veto used there.

The solution from the EU and predecessors has always been "more Europe". I think more Europe is the problem. Perhaps if a referendum had been granted on Maastricht or Lisbon, things may have been different but we are where we are. If the other countries want a US of E, that's up to them. I don't/didn't want the UK to be part of it, though.


Precisely why a vote for ‘Remain’, as some argued before the referendum, was never a vote for the status quo. A Remain vote would have been a vote for ever closer union.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Steffan on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 6:39 pm

I do often worry now how the economic and political disaster that is Brexit will affect my job

I work as a Field Archaeologist for commercial units in Britain. Basically going in...digging the stuff up as quickly as possible (haven't got a clue what happens to most of it in post excavation) and then moving on to a new site

Last year for example I worked most of the year up in Suffolk doing the pre-construction archaeology before the Suffolk offshore wind farm is finished

Commercial Archaeology is full of jobs at the moment due to these type of projects and soon with the HS2 line starting up and just a basic shortage of archaeologists

But this is the issue...will Brexit put major halts on such large scale construction work?

There are not enough houses now being built in Britain and this is pre March 2019. Will construction (or in my case pre-construction) be totally hit by Brexit...because let's be honest...we are taking about millions of jobs on the line here

My nephew is currently studying (and part time working in) aerospace engineering and they have already been told Brexit is going to have a major negative impact

In the words of Private Frazer....."We're all dooooooooooooooooooooomed"


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Re: Brexit

Post by No 7&1/2 on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 6:43 pm

Why is a swing unlikely duty? As said the next vote is likely to be done on an actual eventuality rather than the any or of vote previously. If it is done on a basis that we stay or have x surely that cuts down the leave vote?

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Re: Brexit

Post by JuliusHMarx on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 6:51 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Samo wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Dave. wrote:Schulz advocating a United States of Europe and the   continuing direction of ever closer union is a pretty tangible argument for Leaving I'd have thought.

Actually, for me, that's a pretty tangible argument for voting Remain.

Its such a ludicrous notion that only Leavers could actually believe it.

You clearly haven’t been following developments since Juncker became President of the European Commission in 2014.

Or I have, but have a different world view from you.
But carry on assuming I'm ignorant, it's one of your charming qualities.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Duty281 on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 6:58 pm

No 7&1/2 wrote:Why is a swing unlikely duty?  As said the next vote is likely to be done on an actual eventuality rather than the any or of vote previously.  If it is done on a basis that we stay or have x surely that cuts down the leave vote?

A swing on a Remain/Leave vote is unlikely to occur because there’s no evidence of ‘Regrexit’. There’s no reason to assume that over half a million Leave voters are going to switch sides.

If, however, the vote is on the basis of ‘stay v accept deal’ (as has been mooted) that would (of course) be a farce, as the EU could offer a diabolical deal (like 90% trade tariffs) which would be rejected.

And a three way choice (accept deal/reject it/stay) would, of course, dilute the Leave vote into two camps, and be difficult to referee (plus opening up more division).

Anyway, this is all hypothetical, as another referendum is still in the realm of fantasy land.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Duty281 on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 7:00 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Samo wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Dave. wrote:Schulz advocating a United States of Europe and the   continuing direction of ever closer union is a pretty tangible argument for Leaving I'd have thought.

Actually, for me, that's a pretty tangible argument for voting Remain.

Its such a ludicrous notion that only Leavers could actually believe it.

You clearly haven’t been following developments since Juncker became President of the European Commission in 2014.

Or I have, but have a different world view from you.
But carry on assuming I'm ignorant, it's one of your charming qualities.

I have numerous charming qualities. And I was addressing Samo, not yourself, who thinks that a USE is a ‘ludicrous notion’.

As I’ve said before, the only reason I can see for voting to ‘Remain’ is if you support a United States of Europe.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Steffan on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 7:07 pm

Duty281 wrote:As I’ve said before, the only reason I can see for voting to ‘Remain’ is if you support a United States of Europe
And how exactly would a "United States of Europe" ruin you life so much? Please explain

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Re: Brexit

Post by No 7&1/2 on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 7:13 pm

So you think that any future vote would be again on stay vs numerous version s of leave duty? I accept that would play to leaves hands.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Steffan on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 7:17 pm

Duty is your typical "I voted Brexit but I can't explain why" types

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Re: Brexit

Post by Ent on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 7:20 pm

Steffan wrote:
Duty281 wrote:As I’ve said before, the only reason I can see for voting to ‘Remain’ is if you support a United States of Europe
And how exactly would a "United States of Europe" ruin you life so much? Please explain

Sovereignty!

They took our jerbs!

Rule Britannia! God save the queen! Long live the commonwealth!

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Re: Brexit

Post by No 7&1/2 on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 7:25 pm

Ah. I know there are several reasons why people did it. Just thought that a second bite would have to define what the vote was more clearly. As you define that it cuts the amount of people who agree hence that vote suffers. Unless it would be a vote on leave with nothing vs leave with a rubbish deal.


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Re: Brexit

Post by JuliusHMarx on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 8:07 pm

I demand a new referendum.
Is it -
A) Bregret
B) Regrexit

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Re: Brexit

Post by Duty281 on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 9:10 pm

Steffan wrote:Duty is your typical "I voted Brexit but I can't explain why" types

Explained numerous times. Here it is again:

1) Supremacy of law-making power, thus increasing democratic control.
2) A supreme judicial system, and an end to the European Arrest Warrant.
3) Full control of immigration, so an equal system can be developed for all potential migrants, rather than having a preference for EU over non-EU.
4) Freedom for the UK to control its own trade policy.
5) Full control of the UK’s fishing waters.
6) Saving a net figure of around £8.5 billion a year.
7) Ensuring the UK doesn’t sign up to an EU army.
8) Getting the UK out of the Common Agricultural Policy.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Duty281 on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 9:10 pm

Steffan wrote:
Duty281 wrote:As I’ve said before, the only reason I can see for voting to ‘Remain’ is if you support a United States of Europe
And how exactly would a "United States of Europe" ruin you life so much? Please explain

I disagree with it, politically.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Duty281 on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 9:13 pm

No 7&1/2 wrote:So you think that any future vote would be again on stay vs numerous version s of leave duty? I accept that would play to leaves hands.

I don't think there will be a future vote*. If there were to be one, I would imagine it would be on Stay v numerous types of Leave, yes, which would be a difficult endeavour to administer etc. I see absolutely no point in another Leave v Remain vote.

*At least, not until after Brexit!

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Re: Brexit

Post by JuliusHMarx on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 9:28 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Steffan wrote:
Duty281 wrote:As I’ve said before, the only reason I can see for voting to ‘Remain’ is if you support a United States of Europe
And how exactly would a "United States of Europe" ruin you life so much? Please explain

I disagree with it, politically.

In principle, regardless of how well it could work, or because you don't think it could possibly work well?

A utopia of all the people of Europe, working together for the common good, seems like a great idea to me - we're all the same species after all, with just a few relatively minor differences in background and culture. Whether that is achievable, given mankind's innate selfishness and limited intelligence, is another matter entirely.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Duty281 on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 9:37 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Steffan wrote:
Duty281 wrote:As I’ve said before, the only reason I can see for voting to ‘Remain’ is if you support a United States of Europe
And how exactly would a "United States of Europe" ruin you life so much? Please explain

I disagree with it, politically.

In principle, regardless of how well it could work, or because you don't think it could possibly work well?

A utopia of all the people of Europe, working together for the common good, seems like a great idea to me - we're all the same species after all, with just a few relatively minor differences in background and culture. Whether that is achievable, given mankind's innate selfishness and limited intelligence, is another matter entirely.

Wouldn't work well, in my opinion.

Economic, judicial and cultural disparities, not to mention the security and language barriers, pour cold water over utopian ideals.

And the way the EU is run, particularly with the prominence and importance that the un-elected European Commission holds, doesn't sit well with me, either.

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Re: Brexit

Post by No 7&1/2 on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 9:48 pm

There would indeed be no point in that sort of vote. Just like the 1st.

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Re: Brexit

Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Sat 13 Jan 2018, 8:28 am

Interesting conundrum with Europe ...Latest polls have remain anywhere in the region of 5-10 points ahead and yet when polled on the question...Do you want a second referendum ?? You get results like...

Yes 43
No 51..

While some are regretting their decision..Evidence seems to suggest that now they have made it... They accept it and want to crack on..


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Re: Brexit

Post by navyblueshorts on Sat 13 Jan 2018, 11:33 am

Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Samo wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
Dave. wrote:Schulz advocating a United States of Europe and the   continuing direction of ever closer union is a pretty tangible argument for Leaving I'd have thought.

Actually, for me, that's a pretty tangible argument for voting Remain.

Its such a ludicrous notion that only Leavers could actually believe it.
Long-term, I don't see why not. It would seem logical that as communication, travel etc get ever easier, there are less barriers due to a lack of understanding of 'others'. Clearly a very complex issue, but why is it a ludicrous notion?

Why not a Federal form of the EU? Details to be worked out over some time. The trouble with the UK, is we never ever engaged and preferred to carp on from the sidelines. If we'd actually engaged, we could have been a major shaper of the EU endpoint. Never mind, we can just be a little island on our own in the North Atlantic...

Yeah, a little island on its own, whilst somehow managing to be involved in over 100 international organisations and its capital being one of the financial centres of the world.

Funny that.
I guess you missed the last 42 years then....
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Re: Brexit

Post by Ent on Sat 13 Jan 2018, 12:04 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Interesting conundrum with Europe ...Latest polls have remain anywhere in the region of 5-10 points ahead and yet when polled on the question...Do you want a second referendum ?? You get results like...

Yes 43
No 51..

While some are regretting their decision..Evidence seems to suggest that now they have made it... They accept it and want to crack on..


The public seem to have a fair is fair attitude over all and accept the result of the referendum.

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Re: Brexit

Post by lostinwales on Sat 13 Jan 2018, 2:26 pm

Ent wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Interesting conundrum with Europe ...Latest polls have remain anywhere in the region of 5-10 points ahead and yet when polled on the question...Do you want a second referendum ?? You get results like...

Yes 43
No 51..

While some are regretting their decision..Evidence seems to suggest that now they have made it... They accept it and want to crack on..


The public seem to have a fair is fair attitude over all and accept the result of the referendum.

'We were lied to and made a really stupid decision but fair is fair lets go with it anyway, By the way what is 'it' that we are actually going with?

*sigh...

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Re: Brexit

Post by Ent on Sat 13 Jan 2018, 2:36 pm

Not disagreeing with your sentiments - this just seems to be the attitude of the general public. A lot of people disagreeing with results, many regretting the way they voted but respecting the outcome of the referendum and hoping for the smoothest transition feasible.

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Re: Brexit

Post by lostinwales on Sat 13 Jan 2018, 3:51 pm

Ent wrote:Not disagreeing with your sentiments - this just seems to be the attitude of the general public. A lot of people disagreeing with results, many regretting the way they voted but respecting the outcome of the referendum and hoping for the smoothest transition feasible.

Before I had read a lot more I think I could have lived with the vote too, as long as there were clear and demonstrable advantages to the process and as long as the government showed proper vision and leadership. There has been none of these things at any stage.

Then there are the continous lies and misrepresentation about Europe.... Anyway not happy about this and hugely frustrated that the single worse government in living history is being allowed to stumble on its way without proper opposition.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Muscular-mouse on Mon 15 Jan 2018, 11:29 pm

I believe there will be a 2nd referendum probably this autumn around September/october time.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Ent on Mon 15 Jan 2018, 11:45 pm

I don't think people can be arsed with it and it would be more polarising regardless of result.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Duty281 on Tue 16 Jan 2018, 12:11 am

Muscular-mouse wrote:I believe there will be a 2nd referendum probably this autumn around September/october time.

1) Would require a new government with a wholly new approach; whilst a new government may happen as a result of a possible 2018 GE, neither Labour nor the Conservatives currently back a second referendum.

2) Most people aren’t interested in another referendum, and there’s the issue of ‘election fatigue’ to consider.

3) Autumn is a terrible time for an election, with adverse weather and diminished daylight time, leading to lower turnouts/lack of interest.

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Re: Brexit

Post by ShahenshahG on Tue 16 Jan 2018, 2:46 am

Yup. The only real chance of a second election is when the deal fails to get through the parliament. Should it go through we won't see an election till the full turn of parliament.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Muscular-mouse on Tue 16 Jan 2018, 7:32 am

Duty281 wrote:
Muscular-mouse wrote:I believe there will be a 2nd referendum probably this autumn around September/october time.

1) Would require a new government with a wholly new approach; whilst a new government may happen as a result of a possible 2018 GE, neither Labour nor the Conservatives currently back a second referendum.

2) Most people aren’t interested in another referendum, and there’s the issue of ‘election fatigue’ to consider.

3) Autumn is a terrible time for an election, with adverse weather and diminished daylight time, leading to lower turnouts/lack of interest.

This is what I think. The negotiations are really bad (because surprise surprise the EU doesn't need us more than we need them) and the final deal will look terrible.

A second referendum according to polls is wanted by slightly less than half the population right now so imagine how many will want a referendum after the final deal has been struck and its a terrible deal.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Ent on Tue 16 Jan 2018, 7:35 am

People are idiots they won't know or care that the deal is bad.


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Re: Brexit

Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 16 Jan 2018, 9:00 am

Ent wrote:People are idiots they won't know or care that the deal is bad.

Yup. Spot on. They won't notice it's scheiss until 5, 10, 20 years down the line and then it'll be too late. They also won't notice it because all politicians lie through their teeth, all the time. In other words, whatever the outcome, it'll be portrayed as a greatest, best deal ever and anything else is just #fakenews.
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Re: Brexit

Post by ShahenshahG on Tue 16 Jan 2018, 9:17 am

Like the Iraq war at least this time they can't lie to themselves deep down. Vote is cast in stone

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Re: Brexit

Post by Dave. on Tue 16 Jan 2018, 10:35 am

There is still a Brexit majority in the Commons. 11 Tory Remainers are cancelled out by 7/8 Labour Leavers. Labour Leavers are not going to do anything that risks not leaving at all.

Does a rejection of the deal lead to a deal/no deal election or just leave without a deal? Could be either, and would perhaps depend on who on the Tory side votes it down. I would admit myself it would seem like a de facto vote of no confidence in the Government, but it depends on how it is handled by HMG. The vote will be no deal or no deal, one or the other.

In any case, Tories of all hues will have to consider the possibility that voting down deal leads to a Corbyn government via a fresh election. Tory Remainers will also have to consider voting down a deal that leads to no deal.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Samo on Tue 16 Jan 2018, 10:38 am

Omnishambles was a good word. Think we should bring it back to describe Brexit. Seems fitting.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Ent on Tue 16 Jan 2018, 11:40 am

Labour MPs will have to toe the line now given the shake up of the NEC.

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Re: Brexit

Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 16 Jan 2018, 12:39 pm

Ent wrote:Labour MPs will have to toe the line now given the shake up of the NEC.
Hopefully not. I'm not sure the general public voted for all the NEC's membership as their representatives. MPs are one thing, other shysters I don't think so. Sadly, you're probably correct though.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Ent on Tue 16 Jan 2018, 1:35 pm

The nec are looking to introduce powers to deselect sitting MPs.

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Re: Brexit

Post by navyblueshorts on Tue 16 Jan 2018, 5:37 pm

Ent wrote:The nec are looking to introduce powers to deselect sitting MPs.
Really? How very Stalinist. Hopefully, that gets highlighted for the disgrace it would be, should it come about.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Ent on Tue 16 Jan 2018, 5:53 pm

Suggestions They also want to hand manifesto, policy etc to the membership rather than parliamentary party.

Crucial National Executive Committee vote transforms Labour's future - Sky News
https://apple.news/AXN0IGmAjSH-owC_I6wc-Cw

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Re: Brexit

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