Aviva Premiership - End of Season Run In

As we come to the last four rounds, Exeter are clear at the top, and London Irish are adrift at the bottom (though not relegated yet). The fight for both Top 4 and th eplayoffs and Top 6 and Europe promises to be thrilling and will go down to the wire.

Exeter Chiefs

Gloucester (H), London Irish (A), Sale (H), Harlequins (A)
With that run-in Exeter should be sealing a home semi sooner rather than later and should be topping the table for the first time.
Predicted final points 83
Predicted final position 1st


Saracens

Northampton (A), Bath (H), London Irish (A), Gloucester (H)
It is 2009 since Saracens failed to make the play-offs. With the run-in they have that run of Top 4 finishes should be extended by another season - yet it is an indication of just how competitive the league has been and Sarries indifferent form that thoughts of finishing outside the play-offs can even by mildly contemplated. Sarries have thrashed Saints three times already this season, though perhaps Northampton will be hoping to catch Saracens on a post European low. The other 3 sides will all want to win to keep their seasons alive, but Sarries should have too much.
Predicted final points 75
Predicted final position 2nd


Wasps

Sale (A), Worcester (H), Northampton (H), Newcastle (A)
Last season's table toppers have at times been sublime, but have failed to show that form often enough to guarantee a Top 4 place yet. Whilst still hot on Saracens coat tails, I am struggling to see them securing a home semi - and they will not be wanting to go away to Falcons needing points to make the Top 4. The two home games should be comfortable wins, but trip to Salford will be crucial against a Sale team who are not out of the fight for the play-offs and will certainly be eyeing up a Top 6 finish at least.
Predicted Final points 67
Predicted final position 4th


Newcastle

Worcester (A), Sale (H), Leicester (A), Wasps (H)
Falcons have been in the top 4 for most of the season and with 12 wins only Exeter (13) have more. With a tricky run in they need to win on the road in round 19 to help ease the nerves. Falcons have failed to secure a LBP this season and being in the play-off spots with a negative points difference is an interesting quirk. Despite 6 TBPs, only the bottom 2 have scored less tries (and points )than Falcons. They may well need to secure some BPs in these last four rounds.
Predicted final points 63
Predicted final position 5th


Leicester
Bath (Twickenham), Northampton (H), Newcastle (H), Sale (A)
Are Tigers putting in one of their trademark end of season flourishes to make the play offs for the umpteenth time in a row? Quite possibly though they need to keep winning. Three wins from the last four games (so long as it includes Falcons) should be enough. Nerves will be soothed a little if they can win "The Clash" at Twickenham.  This will not be easy as Bath still have hopes of a high table finish, yet (in part due to the quirks of East Midlands derbies) this could be their easiest fixture.
Predicted final points 67
Predicted Final position 3rd


Gloucester
Exeter (A), Harlequins (H), Bath (H), Saracens (A)
Those two tricky road trips have probably ended Glaws hopes of a play-off spot. However with the potential for the teams around them to drop points they need to secure as many wins as they can and see where that puts them.
Predicted Final points 60
Predicted Final position 6th


Sale
Wasps (H), Exeter (A), Newcastle (A), Leicester (H)
Win all four matches and Sale could well sneak into the play-offs. However it is more likely that their efforts will help decide which of the sides above them misses out. May well just lose out on a top half finish, but even so Diamond seems to have them punching above their weight.
Predicted final points 58
Predicted Final position 7th


Bath
Leicester (Twickenham), Saracens (A), Gloucester (A), London Irish (H)
Bath will be hoping they still have something to play for when their Academy Side visit the Rec in Round 22. I would make them favourites to win at the Rec against Tigers, but playing in London removes home advantage. Could well struggle for points in the away fixtures as their season seems set to fizzle out.
Predicted final points 53
Predicted Final position 8th


Harlequins
London Irish (H), Gloucester (A), Worcester (A), Exeter (H)
Little to play for except pride.
Predicted final points 42
Predicted Final position 9th


Northampton
Saracens (H), Leicester (A), Wasps (A), Worcester (H)
Little to play for except pride, they may need to beat Worcester to avoid 11th place.
Predicted final points 38
Predicted Final position 10th


Worcester
Newcastle (H), Wasps (A), Harlequins (H), Northampton (A)
Can they stay ahead of LI? Yes. Can they catch Saints? Maybe.
Predicted Final Points 37
Predicted final position 11th


London Irish
Harlequins (A), Exeter (H), Saracens (H), Bath (A)
A topsy turvy season has told us to take nothing for granted. However London Irish need a minor miracle and their fate is really outside their own hands. Two really tough home games means the question really is when not if they are relegated.
Predicted Final Points - 22
Predicted Final Position 12th

I think you're spot on LT with the top 6 and shows why you should never, ever write off Tigers! How on Earth they won yesterday is beyond me, but full credit for a fantastic 2nd half.

Its odds on to be a Chiefs v Sarries final and I can't see Sarries beating Leinster this weekend, so there shouldn't be any excuses for fighting on two fronts.

I do feel there is going to be quite a big gap between 6th and 7th. I'm fairly confident Glaws will finish 6th, but I don't see Sale winning any more games, despite their good form and Bath will probably only beat the Academy side.

The teams in 2nd through to 6th all have their next game away from home. Could make for anreal shuffling of positions.

Would be brilliant for Newcastle to make the play offs this season for a change.

As for Quin's. Well the end of the season can not come soon enough! Don't really know what's gone wrong with us, but we need a change of coaches if we're to get anything out of this side.

This weeks fixtures:

Friday 6th

19:45 Sale v Wasps BT Sport
Can Sale pull off what woudl be only a minor upset. Possibly, but Wasps need the win too.


Saturday 7th

14:00 Bath v Leicester (Twickenham) BT Sport/Channel 5
MotM performance from George Ford won "The Clash" for Bath last year. Hopefully he can repeat that this year in Leicester's stripes.

14:00 Northampton v Saracens
Three meetings, three thrashings so far this season. Hard to see the pattern changing.

15:00 Harlequins v London Irish
Since London Irish won the reverse fixture in Week 1 their season has been in freefall. Quins produce one good performance a month.

15:00 Worcester v Newcastle
Worcester have the ability to beat their high(ish) flying visitors. Falcons need it more though.


Sunday 8th

15:00 Exeter v Gloucester BT Sport
Gloucester need the win to stay in the hunt, but Exeter should be too strong.

Thanks for this LT - can’t disagree with what you’ve said there. Wuss will be glad to get any points from their match against this strong Falcons team - in past seasons it would have been targeted for 4 points.

We've been poor recently though (despite just managing the wins) so its not a guaranteed win for the falcons by any means.

Unless Worcester up their game significantly, GF, I can’t see anything other than a win for you. Impressive turnaround for Falcons this year which gives me a bit of hope going forward!

Looks like Wuss will be missing Hougaard and Mills which is a big blow too.

Agree it should be a win for Quins. Not that it matters much now, I'd rate us only slightly better then Irish at the moment. Who knows we could still manage to lose this game anyway.

stub wrote:Looks like Wuss will be missing Hougaard and Mills which is a big blow too.

That does make it a lot easier for Falcons

RIP - Aviva Prem (Jeff), AP.

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stub wrote:Unless Worcester up their game significantly, GF, I can’t see anything other than a win for you. Impressive turnaround for Falcons this year which gives me a bit of hope going forward!

Its what Dean has been building for the last 5-6 years. Slowly fixing the academy, putting his systems in to place and finding little gems like Sinoti, Gary Graham etc etc

He had a 5 year plan, but I don't think he realised how bad a shape this club was in.

We've just signed up Gary Grahams young brother who is supposed to be a real prospect in the same physical aggressive mode. So he's always looking to the future as well.

However...we'll still a work in progress...and the last two performances have been pretty poor. So it'll be interesting to see how we go.

Sale team:

15.Mike Haley; 14.Denny Solomona, 13.Sam James, 12.James O'Connor, 11.Marland Yarde; 10.AJ MacGinty, 9.Faf De Klerk; 1.Ross Harrison, 2.Rob Webber, 3.WillGriff John, 4.Bryn Evans, 5.Andrei Ostrikov, 6.Jono Ross (capt.), 7.Ben Curry, 8.Josh Strauss.

Replacements: 16.Marc Jones, 17.James Flynn, 18.Alexandru Tarus, 19.Josh Beaumont, 20.Tom Curry, 21.Will Cliff, 22.Luke James, 23.Byron McGuigan.

Wasps team to play Sale Sharks
15. Willie Le Roux
14. Christian Wade
13. Elliot Daly
12. Jimmy Gopperth
11. Josh Bassett
10. Danny Cipriani
9. Dan Robson
1. Matt Mullan
2. Tom Cruse
3. Jake Cooper-Woolley
4. Joe Launchbury
5. Kearnan Myall
6. Jack Willis
7. Thomas Young
8. Guy Thompson

Replacements:
16. Tommy Taylor
17. Simon McIntyre
18. Marty Moore
19. Will Rowlands
20. James Haskell
21. Joe Simpson
22. Juan De Jongh
23. Guy Armitage

Jack Willis continues to be viewed as a 6 by Dai Young, which will make the match up with Ben Curry harder to score tomorrow. I have seen a lot more of Ben than Willis so will be interesting to see if the Wasp can live up to the hype.

Solomona banned for 4 weeks, so will probably miss the rest of the season (as well as this game)

Leicester Tigers (v Bath Rugby, Twickenham Stadium, Saturday 2.00pm)

15 Telusa Veainu

14 Adam Thompstone

13 Mathew Tait

12 Matt Toomua

11 Jonny May

10 George Ford (c)

9 Sam Harrison

1 Ellis Genge

2 Tatafu Polota-Nau

3 Dan Cole

4 Mike Fitzgerald

5 Graham Kitchener

6 Valentino Mapapalangi

7 Luke Hamilton

8 Sione Kalamafoni

Replacements

16 Tom Youngs

17 Greg Bateman

18 Logovi’i Mulipola

19 Harry Wells

20 Will Evans

21 Harry Simmons

22 Matt Smith

23 Jordan Olowofela

Good to see Olowofela on the bench - though not many left I guess.

Bath Rugby team to face Leicester Tigers

15. James Wilson
14. Matt Banahan
13. Jonathan Joseph
12. Ben Tapuai
11. Aled Brew
10. Rhys Priestland
9. Kahn Fotuali’i
1. Beno Obano
2. Tom Dunn
3. Shaun Knight
4. Charlie Ewels
5. Elliott Stooke
6. Matt Garvey
7. Francois Louw
8. Taulupe Faletau

Replacements
16. Jack Walker
17. Lucas Noguera
18. Victor Delmas
19. James Phillips
20. Tom Ellis
21. Max Green
22. Freddie Burns
23. Cooper Vuna

SAINTS V SARACENS
Aviva Premiership Rugby, Round 19
Franklin’s Gardens
Saturday 7th April, 2018
Kick-off: 2pm

15 Ahsee Tuala
14 Nafi Tuitavake
13 Rob Horne
12 Piers Francis
11 George North
10 Stephen Myler
9 Cobus Reinach

1 Campese Ma’afu
2 Reece Marshall
3 Kieran Brookes
4 Api Ratuniyarawa
5 Christian Day (capt)
6 David Ribbans
7 Jamie Gibson
8 Teimana Harrison

Replacements:
16 Charlie Clare
17 Francois van Wyk
18 Ehren Painter
19 Michael Paterson
20 Ben Nutley
21 Alex Mitchell
22 Tom Collins
23 Ben Foden

Injury list:
Tom Wood, Heinrich Brüssow, Mikey Haywood, Courtney Lawes, Dylan Hartley, Paul Hill, Jamal Ford-Robinson and Harry Mallinder are all unavailable for selection.

Saracens team to face Northampton (Sarries apps):

15 Liam Williams (12)
14 Sean Maitland (36)
13 Alex Lozowski (55)
12 Brad Barritt (217)
11 Chris Wyles (248)
10 Owen Farrell (168)
9 Ben Spencer (126)
1 Mako Vunipola (138)
2 Schalk Brits (216)
3 Juan Figallo (84)
4 Maro Itoje (89)
5 George Kruis (154)
6 Nick Isiekwe (29)
7 Blair Cowan (3)
8 Jackson Wray (195)

16 Jamie George (190)
17 Richard Barrington (130)
18 Kieran Longbottom (12)
19 Dominic Day (12)
20 Schalk Burger (47)
21 Richard Wigglesworth (204)
22 Duncan Taylor (111)
23 Nathan Earle (35)

Loz at 13 - interesting.

Harlequins squad to play London Irish (Harlequins appearances)

15. Mike Brown (294)
14. Charlie Walker (83)
13. Joe Marchant (53)
12. Francis Saili (4)
11. Tim Visser (58)
10. Marcus Smith (24)
9. Danny Care (240)

1. Joe Marler (164)
2. Dave Ward (Captain, 140)
3. Kyle Sinckler (118)
4. Charlie Matthews (161)
5. Stan South (13)
6. Mat Luamanu (63)
7. Chris Robshaw (253)
8. Jack Clifford (73)

16. Joe Gray (149)
17. Mark Lambert (230)
18. Will Collier (123)
19. George Merrick (77)
20. Archie White (18)
21. Dave Lewis (13)
22. James Lang (18)
23. Alofa Alofa (52)

London Irish:

15 James Marshall, 14 Joe Cokanasiga, 13 Tom Fowlie, 12 Johnny Williams, 11 Alex Lewington, 10 Theo Brophy Clews, 9 Piet van Zyl, 1 Ben Franks, 2 David Paice, 3 Ollie Hoskins, 4 Franco van der Merwe (c), 5 Josh McNally, 6 Jake Schatz, 7 Max Northcote-Green, 8 Ofisa Treviranus

Replacements: 16 Dave Porecki, 17 Gordon Reid, 18 Petrus Du Plessis, 19 Sebastian De Chaves, 20 Josh Basham, 21 Scott Steele, 22 Tommy Bell, 23 Aseli Tikoirotuma

Worcester team to face Falcons:

15 Chris Pennell
14 Bryce Heem
13 Ben Te’o
12 Jackson Willison
11 Josh Adams
10 Jamie Shillcock
9 Jonny Arr
1 Ryan Bower
2 Jack Singleton
3 Nick Schonert
4 Darren Barry
5 Will Spencer
6 David Denton
7 Sam Lewis
8 GJ van Velze (C)

Replacements
16 Kurt Haupt
17 Gareth Milasinovich
18 Simon Kerrod
19 Andrew Kitchener
20 Marco Mama
21 Grayson Hart
22 Dorian Jones
23 Dean Hammond

Warriors
15 Chris Pennell
14 Bryce Heem
13 Ben Te’o
12 Jackson Willison
11 Josh Adams
10 Jamie Shillcock
9 Jonny Arr
1 Ryan Bower
2 Jack Singleton
3 Nick Schonert
4 Darren Barry
5 Will Spencer
6 David Denton
7 Sam Lewis
8 GJ van Velze (C)

Replacements
16 Kurt Haupt
17 Gareth Milasinovich
18 Simon Kerrod
19 Andrew Kitchener
20 Marco Mama
21 Grayson Hart
22 Dorian Jones
23 Dean Hammond

Newcastle Falcons team to face Worcester Warriors (Saturday, 3pm, Sixways)

15 Alex Tait
14 Vereniki Goneva
13 Chris Harris
12 Josh Matavesi
11 Sinoti Sinoti
10 Toby Flood
9 Sam Stuart
1 Sam Lockwood
2 Kyle Cooper
3 Scott Wilson
4 Calum Green
5 Sean Robinson
6 Evan Olmstead
7 Will Welch (captain)
8 Nili Latu

Replacements

16 Scott Lawson
17 Rob Vickers
18 Trevor Davison
19 Will Witty
20 Callum Chick
21 Joel Hodgson
22 Dominic Waldouck
23 Adam Radwan

Is England's next scrum half injured? (ie Michael Young )

CHIEFS SIDE TO FACE GLOUCESTER

15 Lachie Turner
14 Ian Whitten
13 Henry Slade
12 Sam Hill
11 Olly Woodburn
10 Joe Simmonds
9 Nic White
1 Alec Hepburn
2 Luke Cowan-Dickie
3 Tomas Francis
4 Sam Skinner
5 Jonny Hill
6 Dave Dennis
7 Don Armand (capt)
8 Sam Simmonds

16 Jack Yeandle
17 Ben Moon
18 Greg Holmes
19 Mitch Lees
20 Dave Ewers
21 Stu Townsend
22 Gareth Steenson
23 Jack Nowell

Gloucester Rugby:

15. Tom Hudson; 14. Charlie Sharples, 13. Henry Trinder, 12. Mark Atkinson, 11. Tom Marshall; 10. Owen Williams, 9. Willi Heinz (capt); 1. Josh Hohneck, 2. James Hanson, 3. John Afoa; 4. Tom Savage, 5. Ed Slater; Ruan Ackermann, 7. Lewis Ludlow, 8. Ben Morgan

Replacements:

16. Motu Matu'u, 17. Paddy McAllister, 18. Fraser Balmain, 19. Jeremy Thrush, 20. Jake Polledri, 21. Callum Braley, 22. Billy Burns, 23. Billy Twelvetrees

Unavailable for selection:

Lloyd Evans, Richard Hibbard, Henry Purdy, Val Rapava Ruskin, Jacob Rowan, Ollie Thorley, Jason Woodward

I see that Billy V still isn't playing for Sarries - thought he was almost starting for them last week!

LondonTiger wrote:Is England's next scrum half injured? (ie Michael Young )

You mean that World Class playmaking scrum half

He must be LT, as I know Takulua is , and we don't have a SH on the bench. Joel must be cover for that. You know what its like getting injury info from Dean Richards. Better chance getting blood from a stone.

LondonTiger wrote:Is England's next scrum half injured? (ie Michael Young )

Nah the next one is in the bench for Tigers. Ready to take over from Benny for club and country in a couple of years.

As an aside the Tigers bench is all academy generated bar the props. Three Tigers academy products starting as well. Positive to see that, in the past we'd have loaned or signed journeymen on short term deals to cover. Hopefully this will help towards us building a better and stronger squad going forwards now young players are getting a run out.

I wonder if any of Bath players will remember the run around they were given in the LV cup by the likes of Simmonds and Owlefia and are maybe not looking forward to them coming off the bench.

We have 6 academy produced starting and 5 on the bench...

Tait, Harris, Flood, Wilson, Welch? Who am i missing from the starters?

Robinson, Davison (Technically Blaydon...but he's been in the Academy), Hodgson

GeordieFalcon wrote:We have 6 academy produced starting and 5 on the bench...

Yes but you're good at it. We've been poor the last few years and it's been something we've needed to kick on with. There's some good development squad players around now and the academy side dominated this season so there's more on the way. Just have to start integrating them better. Was a big concern with MOC who hasn't shown much skill at that previously, he seems to be learning slowly though.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Robinson, Davison (Technically Blaydon...but he's been in the Academy), Hodgson

The Falcons website says he played for Blaydon all his life before joining Falcons in 2017.
And Robinson joined Falcons when he was like 22 not really academy.

Great result for Sale. Five point win over Wasps thanks to a late Yarde score.

Wasps lost Cipriani moments before with an ugly head clash that also saw Robson leave the field.

Welly wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:Robinson, Davison (Technically Blaydon...but he's been in the Academy), Hodgson

 The Falcons website says he played for Blaydon all his life before joining Falcons in 2017.
And Robinson joined Falcons when he was like 22 not really academy.

Robinsons been with us longer than that...Davison yeah mostly Blaydon but they're basically our academy club anyway..

Genge v Obano playing for a spot on the England tour.
Different styles but could both go?

Tigers have started appalling. Tino looks asleep having missed the kick off and then let Joseph run round him. Kitch makes a great cover tackle and then a completely moronic penalty from Fitzgerald. Surely he's off this summer.

Tigers scrum unsurprisingly on the front foot. Genge straight into Knight.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Genge v Obano playing for a spot on the England tour.
Different styles but could both go?

Ellis Genge has already dispatched the Bath tighthead to the sin bin. Two yellow cards inside 25 mins for Bath.

Could be a 3rd....

stub wrote:Could be a 3rd....

Maybe should have been. Looked like Dunn stood up under pressure.

Tigers defence is poor. Paying the price for not playing an openside AGAIN!

And yet losing 13-10 despite playing with a 2 man advantage....

Genge
Dunn
Sinkler

Would be a nice aggressive front row for the summer....

Interesting 1st half.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Genge
Dunn
Sinkler

Would be a nice aggressive front row for the summer....

I'd rest Mako and Cole this summer. Genge/LCD/Sinkler I'd prefer.

Tigers should be dominating but are lacking someone who will attack the breakdown. We're playing with three 8s and we just aren't physically dominating enough to get away with that.