Next player to win their 1st slam?

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Who will be the next player to win their 1st slam?

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Total Votes : 11

Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by MrInvisible on Fri 26 Jan 2018, 9:56 am

We are clearly in an unusual transitional period at the top of the men's game right now, with both Federer and Nadal looking like winning at least a slam apiece this year. However, the injuries to Djokovic, Murray and Wawrinka has given an opportunity to other players, and I do think either this year or next we will finally see a new name winning a slam title, but who will it be?

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by Just John on Fri 26 Jan 2018, 10:49 am

Going to be honest, the next-gen just don’t seem to be up to the job, hence why the changing of the guard hasn’t occurred. This transition period could take another year or two, such is the continued success of Roger & Rafa at slam level. Nadal still heavy favourite at RG, as is Roger at Wimbledon. US open would be more open, but still Roger, Rafa, Novak & Cilic, would still be heavily expected to flourish.

As for the question at hand, I personally don’t see Raonic ever winning a slam. Goffin, likewise. Nishikori is ageing now, and physically is not able to compete over five sets, over a two week period. Thiem could possibly take the French, but Nadal would need to be taken out. Wimbledon would be Dimitrov’s best shot, but he’s too inconsistent. Zverev needs a couple more years of maturing & development. Kygrios would need to showcase he’s maturing, and there’s still question marks over his commitment and dedication to the sport.

As has been said, the sport is in a strange situation at the moment. Not surprised Roger has gone from being dead and buried on 17 slams, to suddenly being on the verge of 20, after a five year slam drought. I think that emphasises the failure of the next-gen, and the physical demise of Roger’s main rivals.

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by No name Bertie on Fri 26 Jan 2018, 10:55 am

I hope it is going to be Wozniacki (rather than screacher Halep). As for the men there are just too many unknown variables to work out who it is going to be. Whoever it is, it is likely to be "handed to them on a plate" due to absenteeism or injury limited performances of the big guns.

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by Calder106 on Fri 26 Jan 2018, 11:01 am

Gone for Thiem. Only because next GS is on clay which is his best surface. Nadal obviously favourite if fit but with Federer unlikely to play and  big question marks over Djokovic and Wawrinka it could be a good opportunity for Thiem.


Last edited by Calder106 on Fri 26 Jan 2018, 11:02 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Missed word)

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by No name Bertie on Fri 26 Jan 2018, 11:05 am

Raonic has proved he can get to a final at Wimbledon. Thiem has proved he can get to a semi-final at Roland Garros. Raonic is injury prone - which I think is due to his size creating additional stresses on his body. Thiem will have to get through Nadal if he is to win RG and only gets one chance a year. Nishikori coming back from injury has reached one final ...

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by CaledonianCraig on Fri 26 Jan 2018, 11:28 am

From that list I have gone for Raonic but my only reservation is that he already seems injury plagued.
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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by CaledonianCraig on Fri 26 Jan 2018, 12:36 pm

Way further down the line perhaps this kid is one to look out for:-

https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/tennis/andy-murray-protege-aidan-mchugh-reaches-australian-open-junior-boys-semifinal-a3749636.html
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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by laverfan on Fri 26 Jan 2018, 2:51 pm

I had great expectations of Thiem, but he seems to be happy being a clay-court specialist. My pick is Zverev.

Raonic and Nishikori seem to be troubled and blighted by injuries and the window of opportunity is gone.

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by sirfredperry on Fri 26 Jan 2018, 4:11 pm

I've gone for Raonic. I think he could "do a Krajicek" and win Wimbledon one day. Their careers are similar. Both are/were big guys with big serves and who were injury prone.
   It was said of Krajicek that 1996 was really the only year when he was totally injury-free. The result? A Wimbledon triumph.
   As has been said above, Thiem's best chance might be the French. But no one's going to win that while Rafa's still around. Zverev's GS record is so far is poor, but at least he has age on his side. Dimi could, I suppose, be a late-blooming Slam winner a la Stan the Man.
   The young guns might have to wait, though. With the injuries piling up, you could see Fed winning a slam/slams even in 2019.

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by MrInvisible on Sun 28 Jan 2018, 7:49 pm

I went for Thiem myself. Yes he's a bit of a claycourt specialist, but I figure he's got less realistic competitors at Roland Garros than the other non-slam winning players have at other slams. I'm still not entirely convinced he can beat Nadal in a best of 5 set match on clay, but I feel he has been gradually improving each year and the gap between them on the surface isn't as high as it once was.

I can also see the logic of those who've gone for Raonic - yes he's not had the best of times with injuries of late but he's got an excellent temperament and reached Wimbledon final already.

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by dummy_half on Mon 29 Jan 2018, 2:23 pm

I can make a case for Thiem on clay, but not elsewhere.

Kyrgios probably has the game at his best to win a major, but not yet the consistency - there was a good discussion a few days ago about the relentlessness of the Big 4, and that's the thing currently missing with Nick.

Zverev is difficult to judge because of the weird anomaly of his slam record, but based on age, ranking progression and MS1000 record you'd have to expect him to start challenging in the slams before the end of this year.

I'm coming round to thinking that none of the older players in that list will be a GS title winner - for me, Nishi and Goffin don't quite have the game (i.e. they will always come across someone who over-powers them), Raonic I think may have already missed his chance and Dimitrov continues to lack the ability to string together enough good performances or to scrap out wins on his off days*.

In truth, answering the poll question, I would go for the A N Other option - I have a feeling that someone like Shavopalov or Rublev will spring a surprise before any of the players listed above. The only reason for thinking this is that most of the guys named have some mental scarring from being beaten by the Big 4 and others of that generation, and I just think someone fresh has a better chance of coming through.

* Probably something that sets Fed, Nadal and Djoko apart from the others, even including Andy, is that they have so few genuine off days in major tournaments, and even then often find sufficient to pick up a win to move on through the tournament.

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by sirfredperry on Mon 29 Jan 2018, 2:37 pm

Who knows what's just around the corner in sport? It's quite sobering to think that when Sampras chalked up his then-record 14th GS in 2002 that a man with no GS titles at that point would eclipse the Sampras record within just SEVEN years.
   OK, the bar is now up to 20. But someone, say Shapovalov, could come along and rattle of a Federer-like volley of multiple slams and emerge from the shadow of the big four to become the king of the sport.
   It could be that Dummy-half is right and that none of the above will be the next new winner of a slam. Also, a good point from DH about the ability to conjure up a win when you're playing below par.

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by No name Bertie on Mon 29 Jan 2018, 4:31 pm

sirfredperry wrote:... good point from DH about the ability to conjure up a win when you're playing below par.
Bit in bold: how about the ability to conjure up a win when you're playing at par or above par?  Remember the players par or above par might not be good enough for their opponents sub-par.

Both Edmund and Chung probably played above par but their bodies were not able to recover in time for the semi-finals.  Same for Dimitrov in the quarter-final.  In the semi-finals Edmund & Chung were playing par in sub-par bodies against opponents playing par or subpar in par bodies.

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by sirfredperry on Mon 29 Jan 2018, 5:47 pm

NNB: Fraid to say that on my local courts even my par excellence aint gonna get the job done against anyone sub-par these days...

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by MrInvisible on Mon 16 Jul 2018, 1:27 pm

Thought I'd shamelessly bump this up. With Federer, Nadal and Djokovic winning the slams so far this year, Murray on his way back, and Cilic and Del Potro challenging hard at various points, its looking unlikely we'll see a first time slam winner at the US Open, and whilst I think we could see a 1st time finalist come through, I don't see anyone stepping up to win their 1st slam until 2020 unless injury intervenes for the top 3.

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by sirfredperry on Tue 17 Jul 2018, 9:06 am

Yes, the Djoko revival suggests the wait for a new Slam winner could well go on. Who knows, Murray could be back in contention too, although that might take a while.
It's interesting that with Murray absent for a year and Djoko at first absent and then initially not at his best, it's the likes of Cilic, Delpo (both nearing 30) and Isner and Anderson (both well past 30) who have stepped up. Yes, Thiem made the French final but he and Zverev must look at their overall Slam records and be disappointed.
One young guy who has done well this year is Tsitsipas. Tiafoe could be one to watch and Shapovalov is another.
I noticed in the earlier posts that I went for Raonic as the possible next new Slam winner. He did go deep at Wimbledon but injury - his nemesis - hampered him in the quarter against Isner. If there's a non-Big Three winner at the USO this year it's likely to be Cilic or Delpo rather than any of the young guns.

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by lags72 on Tue 17 Jul 2018, 10:07 am

Ten years ago - that’s TEN Shocked - the four Slams were won by players named Nadal, Federer and Djokovic.

We’re in a tennis time warp.

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by Born Slippy on Wed 18 Jul 2018, 8:15 am

Both Del Potro and Cilic turn 30 in late September so, unless we have a new winner at the US Open, there won’t be a slam winner younger than 30.

I’m still inclined to think the next new winner is likely to be Zverev, given his Masters record. However, I can’t see it being this year.

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Re: Next player to win their 1st slam?

Post by theslosty on Thu 19 Jul 2018, 10:53 pm

I think Zverev is probably the best talent we've seen come through since Murray/Djokovic. When his game is on even Nadal and to some extent Federer struggle to contain him. I'm not sure how to explain his poor record at slams - I think it genuinely started out as a coincidence and now it's developed into a mental block for him. Important that he peaks at the hardcourt slams, he's not bad on clay but Nadal and Thiem are a level above meanwhile his grasscourt game needs development. Having said all this people forget he's still very young and can probably keep improving for at least 3 or 4 years. I still hold some faith in the so called NextGen, the likes of Zverev, Thiem, Shapovalov look a cut above anything the crop of players before them brought along - a generation that could have been spearheaded by Dimitrov, del Potro etc but never really materialised.

Enjoyed watching Thiem at RG this year and it was a shame he just cracked at the end of the first set against Rafa. Had he won that set we could have been in for a brilliant final, in the end Thiem was probably a little overawed by the occasion. However he definitely has the raw materials, incredible groundstroke power and movement that had Rafa startled for a short while. Plus it shouldn't be forgotten he has several wins over Rafa on clay already. On the other hand he appears to be developing into a claycourt specialist and accordingly slam opportunities are going to be few and far between.

As an aside, I believe the recent football World Cup featured a record low number of teenagers - is this trend we're seeing in tennis being mirrored in other sports? Now admittedly I've put little thought into this but the summit of professional football has been occupied by Messi and Ronaldo for over a decade now - France's Mbappe seems like the first player in a long while to have all the attributes to really challenge them. Interested if anyone else here is noticing similar patterns.
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