PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

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PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 1:50 pm

Better late than never (not really sure about that), but this was clearly meant to be posted yesterday!

1).The API (Arnold Palmer Invitational) is underway at Bay Hill and once again a PGA Tour field is being subsidised by "internationals", with Rickie Fowler the only American ranked among the Top Ten, in owgr placings, in the field. That's the third Florida event in that category, and Rickie is some kind of honorary host. No matter, this will all be overlooked as the resurgent Tiger is back to work for his fourth tournament in five weeks - wonder when that last happened?!

2).Tiger Woods looked very, very good I thought in runnering up at last week's "Valspar", though still not sure why the iron off the 72nd tee. But Poulter got similar grief at last year's Players on his way to a second place finish. Would've said Poults had a lot more on the line than Woods, but all good grist for the discussion mill.

3).Having said all that, WELL DONE Paul Casey. I still think he has the most talent of his generation of English golfers, still think he struts about like a prat with the ever-present supercilious grin, but WELL DONE Paul Casey.
He's never let anyone down in Ryder Cup play and was one of the few bright spots in sirnick's Ryder Cup losing team - imagine Thomas Bjorn was thrilled to see his performance, and has likely been telling him that his return to European Tour membership made all the difference.
Now, Paul, you've got to go out and win from the front, or at least the final group or two. Quite OK if you do that at The Masters.

4).Brandt Snedeker must be heartily sick of the sight of Mr.Woods. NBC TV offered a stat which showed Sneds had been grouped w/Tiger something like 14 times and had never had the better round, head-to-head. And Snedeker's meltdown on Sunday cost him a place in the WGC-MatchPlay, and severely jeopardised his chances of qualifying for Augusta, a tournament he'd love to be in. But that got me to thinking (never a good thing):

5).Possibly the only time that Woods has been out of his competitive comfort zone this season was at Riviera when he was grouped for 36 holes with Thomas & McIlroy. Imagine they, all three of 'em, wanted to one-up the other, hit it farther, make more birds, get the crowd going - and they all fell pretty flat.
Otherwise Tiger has been grouped with arguably friendly fire, Snedeker especially. Dufner, Reed & Hoffman, Spieth and Tiger's mate Stenson; though when he had Hideki for company he only managed an even par 72. Off with the always competitive Jason Day today so we'll see.

6).But what about this stat?
NBC also noted that Spieth has already suffered more PGA Tour cuts in his career than Tiger Woods.
So: At the risk of being ott arcane, I looked at the bare data of leading Tour players who had played at least 100 events (so excluding Rahm & Koepka) and this is what it shows:

Tiger: Played 332 events, cut 25 times. Percentage of cuts made: 92%
Sergio: Played 326, cut 42, Percentage made: 87.1%
Rory: Played 135, cut 18, Percentage cuts made: 86.6%
Hideki: Played 110, cut 15, Percentage made: 86.2%
Phil: Played 578, cut 91, Percentage made: 84.2%
DJ: Played 226, cut 36, Percentage made: 84.0%
Spieth: Played 134, cut 22, Percentage made: 83.5%
Scott: Played 287, cut 51, Percentage made: 82.2%
Day: Played 215, cut 39, Percentage made: 81.9%
Rose: Played 309, cut 60, Percentage made: 80.6
Rickie: Played 202, cut 44, Percentage made: 78.2%
JT: Played 102, cut 24, Percentage made: 76.5%

This excludes w/d's (they seem to be included somewhat inconsistently on pgatour.com), but does include events played as an amateur.
But editing of that lot would only show Tiger's level of consistency and excellence to be higher still - 7 of his cuts were in tournaments played as an amateur (and another 4 were in 2015 when he was apparently crippled).
Interesting though, and a good reflection also of longevity of consistency by Sergio, Adam Scott, Phil and Rosey.
Casey, for instance, registers 77% cuts made, Donald 75%.

7).This looks like a bet-without-the-favourite week (or against the favourite if the prices really are 6/1 Woods 12/1 bar one as suggested by Golf Channel).
There are suggestions from the punditry that Bay Hill will cause Woods to use his driver more than Innisbrook, but against that you'd have to consider this a mini-Major for him, a place he knows like the back of his hand and already with a gazillion wins here.
I'll tempt fate by going with Alex Noren as my one-and-done.
Balls in the air already. Let's go!

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Just John on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 2:46 pm

Woods -3 after 8 (co-leader)

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 2:59 pm

Yup, All parts of his game look good, only missed two greens, one he got up and down, the other just down. Seems to be hitting his driver with impunity, impressive start.

Terrible start from Fitzpatrick, one triple bogey, two x doubles, spraying it all over the place - two years now since his fantastic Masters finish, nothing better in the USA than a T13 (at Bay Hill last year) since then . . . . . . and must be long odds against emulating that T13 this week.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by I'm never wrong on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 4:06 pm

4 over to 2 under (at the moment) - that's good going from Justin.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 4:07 pm

Amazing round in progress from Justin Rose. Four over par after 6 holes, two under thru' 14. SNAP!!!!

Harrington going nicely - would be good to see him stitch four good rounds together; it's been a while.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by beninho on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 4:16 pm

Saw the Justin Rose top out of the rough on twitter. I like seeing a pro play like me, if only for one shot!

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by navyblueshorts on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 4:28 pm

beninho wrote:Saw the Justin Rose top out of the rough on twitter. I like seeing a pro play like me, if only for one shot!
Definitely! Saw Goosen (I think) top a tee shot once, to laughs from the gallery. Difference was that he then smashed a 3w onto the green and walked off with an easy par....
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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 4:52 pm

Think that's the second shot Woods has canned from off the green, 70-footer this time. Outright lead now.


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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by sirbenson on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 4:53 pm

Good start from Padraig! And incredible putt from Tiger!

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 6:31 pm

Only makes sense that Shane followed an eagle with a triple bogey to finish his round. Needs to go under par tomorrow - not sure whether he has the Dominican on his schedule, but he should.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by pedro on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 6:38 pm

Woods, Reed and Rose in the mix again. Yawn.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by super_realist on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 6:50 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:Only makes sense that Shane followed an eagle with a triple bogey to finish his round. Needs to go under par tomorrow - not sure whether he has the Dominican on his schedule, but he should.

Shane is very much yesterday's man. Could have had it all, and he's thrown it all away.

Wasn't long ago that he was looking like the best player from the British Isles. Now where is he?

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by NedB-H on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 6:56 pm

The best player from the British Isles? I don’t remember Lowry ever looking like that. Must have been blinded by constant criticisms of his physique.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by super_realist on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 7:01 pm

There was a time he was by virtue of everyone else being so poor, with the exception of perhaps McIlroy.
Donald, Westwood, Poulter, Rose, McDowell etc were all in a slump.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 7:22 pm

Rory's found his putting touch, only 64 holes to keep this up - he can do it . . . . . . . .

Signs of life from Stenson too. About time if he has any designs on contending at Augusta in 3 weeks' time.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by NedB-H on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 7:27 pm

Interesting watching Sky contort themselves over slow play tonight. They were happily shouting it down until one of their favourites in Hatton started moaning; lot more ambivalent now.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 8:18 pm

Heven't seen any stats yet, but scoring looks quite a bit easier for the afternoon wave, Donald & Molinari among those failing to take advantage. So far anyway.


Hatton is asking to get the US media on his back - they can be quite unforgiving, just ask Sergio.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Snap Hook on Thu 15 Mar 2018, 10:57 pm


After Torrey Pines, suggested that if Tiger could do well at Riviera, (Top 10) it would be game on for the Masters, that was little premature but after the Honda, last week and today, my 'feels' say he has a great chance for his 15th major next month. Not saying his going to win in but he wont be far away all things being equal.

The other pros are saying all the right things about Tiger, great to be back etc, but they have got to be a tad concerned, and that what makes golf interesting right now. Will they collapse like before or will we see some great battles this year. TW vs JT has the biggest potential right now in my book.

Great round by Henrik today, annoying that a snap hook on 18 for Rory but much needed improvement.


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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 12:10 am

sirbenson asked for nominations for "breakthrough" players this year, and I chose Sam Horsfield - good to see him in T22 after Round 1, just one stroke behind the McDowell, McIlroy, Fleetwood, Rose quartet. Somewhat question some of the "sponsor invitations" but happy to see Horsfield taking advantage.


Sad end for Rory, but he's got to go again tomorrow and learn from that. Didn't watch any play today but what did he hit? All he needs is a 2-iron off that tee, the way he hits it.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by pedro on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 10:19 am

And Woods as comeback player of the year?

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by pedro on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 10:20 am

super_realist wrote:
Shane is very much yesterday's man. Could have had it all, and he's thrown it all away.
He does have it all. At the buffet.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Diggers on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 11:51 am

kwinigolfer wrote:sirbenson asked for nominations for "breakthrough" players this year, and I chose Sam Horsfield - good to see him in T22 after Round 1, just one stroke behind the McDowell, McIlroy, Fleetwood, Rose quartet. Somewhat question some of the "sponsor invitations" but happy to see Horsfield taking advantage.


Sad end for Rory, but he's got to go again tomorrow and learn from that. Didn't watch any play today but what did he hit? All he needs is a 2-iron off that tee, the way he hits it.

What did he hit, the steroids I'd say. Out of every golfer on tour I'd say Rory has the physique that is most incongruous with how I'd expect him to look based on say 5 years ago. I'm far from an expert, but his swing doesn't look as fluid and languid as it once did. Maybe Rory needs more reps on the course rather than in the gym, he's so inconsistent these days.


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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 11:58 am

Chilly (for them, low 40's, heatwave for us) start at Bay Hill but it should be a perfect day for good golf in Round 2.
Afternoon wave outscored the morning crew by about 3/4 of a stroke Thursday - imagine there'll be a repeat of that today.

Would be good to see Stenson keep his foot down, drove it and putted beautifully Thursday, more please.
You too Rory, whatever you look like.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by pedro on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 12:25 pm

Stenson looked majestic yesterday. When he's in that mood he's lethal. Came to think of Royal Troon.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 12:53 pm

Kwini: How is the Maple Syrup season going? Big snow impact?

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 12:59 pm

GPB wrote:Kwini:  How is the Maple Syrup season going?  Big snow impact?

Would think they got off to a great start in Feb, but must've got slowed by March snows. Ideal weather these next few days with cold nights and shocking forecast of some sun by day.
Friend of ours cans "maple" and "birch" water, sells as SAP!; on Shark Tank a month ago! I'll have to check in with him for the latest.


Catastrophic double bogey, double bogey start for Fleetwood, including 2 x 3-putts. From outskirts of contention to the cut-line in a heartbeat.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Roller_Coaster on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 1:54 pm

Good notes Kwin, thanks.

Phil's got some miles on the clock at nearly 600 events! Wonder if he needs any more reps...

I was a little surprised Rose is as close to Woods in terms of events played, and also that his cuts made % is so good after his run just after turning pro, which IIRC was horrendous.

As for Woods' 70 foot putt yesterday. That's a wedge and 2 putts for me more often than not! Terry Wogan would have tipped his hat at that effort.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 2:00 pm

Golf Channel suggesting these prices for Augusta:
8/1 Woods
9/1 DJ & JT
12/1 Spieth
14/1 Day, Rahm
16/1 Rors, Phil, Rose
18/1 Bar those.

Of course, they also headline him as odds on favourite. Not quite GC.


Cheers Roller,
Rose was a reasonably consistent cut-maker from the start of his US career, just kept on getting better and better, turning those top 40's into top 10's over quite a few non-winning seasons before his breakthrough at Memorial.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 2:26 pm

Withdrawal from Willett, haven't seen the reason - but he'll be wearing out his welcome at this rate.

Nice comeback so far from Tommy Fleetwood.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 2:29 pm

ANGC is going to force Tiger to use a driver.

Truly a sucker's bet.


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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by GPB on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 2:33 pm

Danny Willett WD

Since Willett won the Masters two years ago, he has played 5 regular PGATour events.

He has either MC or WD in each of those five events.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by Roller_Coaster on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 4:07 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:Golf Channel suggesting these prices for Augusta:
8/1 Woods
9/1 DJ & JT
12/1 Spieth
14/1 Day, Rahm
16/1 Rors, Phil, Rose
18/1 Bar those.

Of course, they also headline him as odds on favourite. Not quite GC.


Cheers Roller,
Rose was a reasonably consistent cut-maker from the start of his US career, just kept on getting better and better, turning those top 40's into top 10's over quite a few non-winning seasons before his breakthrough at Memorial.

Ahh, of course. PGA stats. I was recalling his woes on the European Tour when he turned pro.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by super_realist on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 6:03 pm

GPB wrote:Danny Willett WD

Since Willett won the Masters two years ago, he has played 5 regular PGATour events.

He has either MC or WD in each of those five events.

I don't think I'm going out on a limb here, but Willett is by far the worst golfer ever to win a major, much worse than Todd Hamilton, Ben Curtis, Hal Sutton, Keegan Bradley, Jimmy Walker or Rev Webb Simpson.

Willett's career RIP.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by NedB-H on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 8:05 pm

Of all the stupid things you post on here that might be the stupidest yet.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by beninho on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 8:20 pm

In 2015 and 2016 willet won 4 events including the masters, a top 10 at the open, 3 top 5s and two top 20s in 7 wgc.

Willet may be struggling now for whatever reason, for aperiod of time he was very good. To think he is the worst major winner ever is a bit daft.

Its easy to forget.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by super_realist on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 8:47 pm

beninho wrote:In 2015 and 2016 willet won 4 events including the masters,  a top 10 at the open, 3 top 5s and two top 20s in 7 wgc.

Willet may be struggling now for whatever reason, for aperiod of time he was very good. To think he is the worst major winner ever is a bit daft.

Its easy to forget.

I should have clarified that he is without doubt the worst major winner SINCE winning his major.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 9:23 pm

St.Padraig was on his way to a respectable 36-hole position. Until he took a 9 - two balls in the water can do that.


Nice recovery from Poulter after starting bogey, bogey. Time he revved up his Tour season. A decent result going into the WGC-MatchPlay would be just the job.


super, Hal Sutton has 2 x Players Champs to go with his PGA - not too shabby from "All hat no cowboy". You could have said the worst Ryder Cup Captain in history.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by NedB-H on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 9:49 pm

Super, Willett is only thirty, plenty of time yet, can he really have a worse post major career than Clarke, or Campbell, or IBF? Hamilton and Yang not great either.

Matchplay field confirmed. Sergio in. Koepka Stenson Rose out. Scott and Rickie also skipping. Down to number 69.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 10:18 pm

Sergio must be desperate to get that start in . . . . . .

Otherwise, indicative of the notion that format or date or both needs to be changed.


St.Padraig won't be there. And he'll miss the weekend at Bay Hill also - a shame after he appears to have played well this week, one hole excepted.

Dunne, McDool, Chris Wood & Zanotti in the Dominican. No Lowry though.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by pedro on Fri 16 Mar 2018, 11:55 pm

Can think of plenty who had worse post major careers than Willett. And those super mentioned are not on that list.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by super_realist on Sat 17 Mar 2018, 8:17 am

pedro wrote:Can think of plenty who had worse post major careers than Willett. And those super mentioned are not on that list.


They must be bloody terrible then.

Willett has played 42 tournaments since his win.

18 of these have been WC or WD

Only 4 have been top 10's

The rest have been terrible positions. His last 15 tournaments have been even worse. (9/15 MC or WD)

His career is in the toilet. Compare it to Garcia who rode out his Major win and kept his level up to a good level.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by NedB-H on Sat 17 Mar 2018, 9:16 am

No one’s saying that he’s played well since his major win. We all accept his form since he won Augusta isn’t great. No need for hyperbole though. Just under 50% missed cuts and 10% top tens is pretty poor but it’s not horrific. And he still has plenty of time to improve.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by super_realist on Sat 17 Mar 2018, 9:21 am

To me he looks like he's done an Ivanisevic, without having the Ivanisevic career to back it up.

Looks like he's not interested in the slightest, perhaps he should go back to using "I" instead of "we" and take some personal responsibility for his shiversome golf in the past two years.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by beninho on Sat 17 Mar 2018, 10:48 am

http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2017/tournamentid=2017084/news/newsid=334042.html

Quite interesting.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Sat 17 Mar 2018, 11:24 am

ben thumbsup

Reports say he withdrew from Bay Hill with a shoulder problem, hadn't heard of an issue with that before.
Imagine he'll play Augusta if he possibly can, but he also needs to get properly fit - wouldn't write his obit quite yet.

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by McLaren on Sat 17 Mar 2018, 12:08 pm

I`m with super here, name a player with a worse post major win set of results?
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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Sat 17 Mar 2018, 12:17 pm

Shaun Micheel.


Mac,
You still there?
Willett's record post-Masters in 2016 was pretty respectable, perhaps not good enough to support your narratives but a darned sight better than many have achieved. Just the facts.


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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Sat 17 Mar 2018, 12:20 pm

Perfect conditions for the early Bay Hill starters, close to 60F already, no wind to speak of, and temps rapidly rising to the mid-80's.
Someone's going to go low!

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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by kwinigolfer on Sat 17 Mar 2018, 3:58 pm

Huh?
He's in with a 66, and there'll be plenty of four and five under pars in within the next hour or so, hopefully one of them from Fleetwood. Stenson will need to stay aggressive when it's his turn.


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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

Post by McLaren on Sat 17 Mar 2018, 5:46 pm

kwinigolfer wrote:Shaun Micheel.


Mac,
You still there?
Willett's record post-Masters in 2016 was pretty respectable, perhaps not good enough to support your narratives but a darned sight better than many have achieved. Just the facts.

It was supers narrative I was agreeing with but I would be interested if you could think of anyone else other than Micheel. I think DC might have had a worse time of it than Willett after his Open win but can't think of other similarly dramatic loses of form post winning a major.
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Re: PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

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