New Centrist Party is coming....Interested ??

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 27 Mar 2018, 8:03 pm

First topic message reminder :

Clegg...I'm not a Liberal and that is it...I am open to new ideas

Blair.....Liberals have a branding problem..The Country needs a Centrist Party to fight Brexit..

Centrist Labour mps...The leader is an anti Semite because of one line on FB..

Owen Smith....Corbyn has sacked me for breaking with Party Policy right before an Election (Strange time to write an anti Labour article or maybe not) The members want to stay in EU.

Jeremy Corbyn wins any Labour Leadership Election.


Clear as night follows day a new Party is coming !!

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Post by lostinwales on Tue 19 Feb 2019, 3:08 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:Yeah. And getting Jeremy Corbyn installed as leader was a plot by the Conservatives to ensure Labour never got back in power. Hey, it's 'just as likely' and the truth is still the truth entirely your own point of view.

To be fair there were Conservative voters boasting about joining Labour to vote for Corbyn at the time, and I think he's doing as much to keep the Tories in power as anyone else.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 19 Feb 2019, 6:22 pm

Let us see what happens over Brexit before saying Labour can't win...

Con 39
Lab 34
Ind group 8
Lib Dems 6

After a horrendous day for Labour the above poll still leaves the Tories 1 short of a majority..

Should think Corbyn is happy to have got rid...Doubt there will be a GE soon anyway as the Tories couldn't win a majority with a 20 point lead.

Probably like more to go..

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Post by Duty281 on Tue 19 Feb 2019, 6:32 pm

That 8% is for a 'new centrist party opposed to Brexit' which is what I thought the LDs were for!

Under the FPTP system, it's difficult to see anything other than this 'independent group' getting wiped out at the next GE, even if they bolster their numbers to a couple of dozen.

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Tue 19 Feb 2019, 6:52 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Let us see what happens over Brexit before saying Labour can't win...

Con 39
Lab 34
Ind group 8
Lib Dems 6

After a horrendous day for Labour the above poll still leaves the Tories 1 short of a majority..

Should think Corbyn is happy to have got rid...Doubt there will be a GE soon anyway as the Tories couldn't win a majority with a 20 point lead.

Probably like more to go..

A horrendous year for the Tories (and the country) and they are still 5 points ahead of Labour (who would be even more horrendous). It's like deciding whether we want to drown or be burned to death.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 19 Feb 2019, 7:57 pm

The fact Labour have to rely on Social media doesn't help...

But you would think a new leader would do Labour no end of good..

Time for Rebecca long Bailey or Thornberry to take over.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 1:30 am

MP number eight quits Labour for the Independent Group - Joan Ryan of Enfield North. I suppose a steady drip of MPs leaving keeps it in the news cycle and reinforces it in the public mind. I wonder when the first Tory defections - likely to be Soubry at the very least - will happen?

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Post by MrInvisible on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 2:08 am

So far the breakaway Labour MPs are with possible exception of Umunna, hardly household names, not 'big beasts' in the same way that SDP were back in the early 80s. If someone of the calibre of Yvette Cooper or Hilary Benn goes then that would be very problematic for Labour though.

Corbyn has his faults but I've got to admit finding the timing of this breakaway of 7, now 8 Labour MPs really self-indulgent and vain, at a time when there is a need for a united front on fighting a no deal Brexit with key votes looming. At best its a distraction and at worst it splinters the opposition. Jeremy Hunt said yesterday that this shows 'Labour MPs can't be relied upon on Brexit', hinting that Theresa May should appease the ERG lot instead. Interesting to look at the reaction from People's Vote campaign, many of whom are appalled that this has happened, as they feel it is going to make it more difficult to get cross-party consensus for 2nd referendum.

On the anti-semitism, Luciana Berger has had a torrid time on social media but it just feels too convenient an excuse to me for these MPs to leave Labour and I strongly suspect there's other agendas afoot here. Look up for example Angela Smith's links to water industry, Chris Leslie's opposition to progressive economic agenda, and the folks who've given donations to Chukka Umunna. Anti-semitism is a convenient cover for real agenda of stopping a genuine left-of-centre led Labour getting to power by setting up this spoiler party. Even if there was no anti-semitism issue or split over Brexit I suspect these MPs would rather a hard-right conservative government remained in power than a Corbyn-led Labour party had a chance of getting eleccted.

However, whilst in the short-term where every vote counts this party is clearly bad news for Labour, it could also be problematic for Conservatives in longer term - time will tell.


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Post by Pr4wn on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 11:19 am

They should all seek re-election as independents.

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Post by lostinwales on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 12:00 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The fact Labour have to rely on Social media doesn't help...

But you would think a new leader would do Labour no end of good..

Time for Rebecca long Bailey or Thornberry to take over.

They don't have to, they choose to. Some of the media will always be hostile, but not all of it. Refusing to engage doesn't help at all, unless you want to forge a cult.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 12:05 pm

Tory defections (as many as three) coming at 11, according to Nick Watt of BBC's Newsnight.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 12:18 pm

lostinwales wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The fact Labour have to rely on Social media doesn't help...

But you would think a new leader would do Labour no end of good..

Time for Rebecca long Bailey or Thornberry to take over.

They don't have to, they choose to. Some of the media will always be hostile, but not all of it. Refusing to engage doesn't help at all, unless you want to forge a cult.

The Guardian and Independent are Centrist papers and The Mirror endorsed Cooper and then Smith..

Shouldn't think new members saw much point in making Corbyn leader and then having a Centrist Party..

Though I would like Labour to move more to the centre myself..

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 1:24 pm

Duty281 wrote:Tory defections (as many as three) coming at 11, according to Nick Watt of BBC's Newsnight.

Soubry, Allen and Wollaston have now left. 11 in this group now. Wonder when they will become an actual party.

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Post by lostinwales on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 1:42 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The fact Labour have to rely on Social media doesn't help...

But you would think a new leader would do Labour no end of good..

Time for Rebecca long Bailey or Thornberry to take over.

They don't have to, they choose to. Some of the media will always be hostile, but not all of it. Refusing to engage doesn't help at all, unless you want to forge a cult.

The Guardian and Independent are Centrist papers and The Mirror endorsed Cooper and then Smith..

Shouldn't think new members saw much point in making Corbyn leader and then having a Centrist Party..

Though I would like Labour to move more to the centre myself..

I think some people bought into the dream of the old radical remaking politics without twigging that maybe he was a little more left wing than they expected. Now he's been out in the public eye attitudes to him are getting ever more polarised.

I do appreciate that it was always a tough gig grafting his old fashioned left wing ideals onto what had turned into a modern centre left party. I guess what all this shows is that Labour should split, because there is significant support for a left wing party but it is not really compatible with the accursed centrists on whose back they are trying to ride into power. Same for the Conservatives and blukip.

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Post by dummy_half on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 1:42 pm

So the current Parliamentary arithmetic is
317 Conservative + 10 DUP = 327
Others = 323

3 more Conservatives defect and things would become very interesting.

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Post by lostinwales on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 1:56 pm

dummy_half wrote:So the current Parliamentary arithmetic is
317 Conservative + 10 DUP = 327
Others = 323

3 more Conservatives defect and things would become very interesting.

Very. Not convinced that Corbyn wants the Tories out of power this side of Brexit though, so they might need a few more than 3.

I do think that there are politicians in both main parties who are very sympathetic with the new group but highly unlikely to move. The likes of Dominic Grieve and Tom Watson come to mind.

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Post by Hero on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 2:22 pm

If Corbyn went, would the ex Labour members look to be re-admitted?

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Post by Samo on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 2:25 pm

What happens if 4 more defect and May loses her already shakey majority? Does that force a GE or does she soldier on with a minority?

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Post by CaledonianCraig on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 2:36 pm

Samo wrote:What happens if 4 more defect and May loses her already shakey majority? Does that force a GE or does she soldier on with a minority?

Certain she'd look to soldier on.
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Post by Mad for Chelsea on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 2:52 pm

With the Fixed-Term Parlament Act (another thing we can all thank the Lib Dems for Very Happy), it's very hard for even a minority government to be forced out of office. May could choose to call a general election: she's have to have I think 60% of Parliament vote for it, but Labour would back it, so they'd get that comfortably. However, while there were rumours last night she might go that way to exploit Labour divisions, this morning's defections make it unlikely.

The only other way is for a vote of no-confidence in the government to be called by Labour (the other parties can also call for a no-confidence vote, but it is unlikely to lead to one). That would only require a simple majority. There would then be a two week period for parties to try and form a government, and if no party can then a general election is called. However, given only a few weeks ago Soubry et al. happily marched through the lobbies to vote confidence in May's government, I can't see a vote of no-confidence succeeding even if a few more Tories quit: there's also no guarantee the Labour quitters would vote no confidence in May either.

Back on topic, the three Tories joining is an interesting, and IMO welcome, development. I said in a previous post that for the new movement to have any credibility beyond a "stop Corbyn at all costs" policy, it needed Tory MPs to join, and this has happened. They're also bigger names than most of the Labour 8 (where only Umunna and perhaps Leslie are "names"), which again gives the movement more credibility.

However, it might also make it harder for them to agree on actual policies. It's easy enough to see what they're against, harder to see what they're actually for. OK they're pro-EU, most of them advocates of a People's Vote. Beyond that, not much, other than some waffle about "values". I'm not sure how possible it is to build a movement like this without at least some general idea of where you're going (you could argue Macron managed, but the conditions in France are very different to the UK). Time will tell.

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Post by CaledonianCraig on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 3:05 pm

Mad for Chelsea wrote:
However, it might also make it harder for them to agree on actual policies. It's easy enough to see what they're against, harder to see what they're actually for. OK they're pro-EU, most of them advocates of a People's Vote. Beyond that, not much, other than some waffle about "values". I'm not sure how possible it is to build a movement like this without at least some general idea of where you're going (you could argue Macron managed, but the conditions in France are very different to the UK). Time will tell.

I agree on this. It is almost like the Tories have joined this new group for a sort of safety in numbers. The Labour portion are there because of dissatisfaction with Corbyn's Labour but the Tories are there because of dissatisfaction with the Tory Governments handing of Brexit. They are there for two totally different causes so what exactly unites them?
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Post by Duty281 on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 3:12 pm

dummy_half wrote:So the current Parliamentary arithmetic is
317 Conservative + 10 DUP = 327
Others = 323

3 more Conservatives defect and things would become very interesting.

With those defections, it's actually 314 Tory MPs at the moment.

And important to remember that of those 326* other MPs, one of them is the neutral Speaker, and seven are Sinn Fein (who have never taken up their seats in the Commons). Oh and there's one vacant seat, after the sad passing of Paul Flynn a few days ago.


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Post by Duty281 on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 3:14 pm

Mad for Chelsea wrote:However, given only a few weeks ago Soubry et al. happily marched through the lobbies to vote confidence in May's government, I can't see a vote of no-confidence succeeding even if a few more Tories quit: there's also no guarantee the Labour quitters would vote no confidence in May either.

Very true. I doubt the 11 would support a vote of no confidence and a subsequent GE as they don't want Corbyn to be PM and, more importantly to them, the 11 would almost certainly lose their seats and the Independent Group would be no more.

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Post by lostinwales on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 3:28 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Mad for Chelsea wrote:However, given only a few weeks ago Soubry et al. happily marched through the lobbies to vote confidence in May's government, I can't see a vote of no-confidence succeeding even if a few more Tories quit: there's also no guarantee the Labour quitters would vote no confidence in May either.

Very true. I doubt the 11 would support a vote of no confidence and a subsequent GE as they don't want Corbyn to be PM and, more importantly to them, the 11 would almost certainly lose their seats and the Independent Group would be no more.

Well it is all a gamble but the chances of Corbyn's Labour getting a clear majority seem slim. Utter chaos.

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Post by No name Bertie on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 3:28 pm

So what does this "new party" stand for?  

Can it really be called a Centrist Party or an Independent Party until we find out what its policy positions are?


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Post by Duty281 on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 3:34 pm

lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Mad for Chelsea wrote:However, given only a few weeks ago Soubry et al. happily marched through the lobbies to vote confidence in May's government, I can't see a vote of no-confidence succeeding even if a few more Tories quit: there's also no guarantee the Labour quitters would vote no confidence in May either.

Very true. I doubt the 11 would support a vote of no confidence and a subsequent GE as they don't want Corbyn to be PM and, more importantly to them, the 11 would almost certainly lose their seats and the Independent Group would be no more.

Well it is all a gamble but the chances of Corbyn's Labour getting a clear majority seem slim. Utter chaos.

Oh absolutely. Nice to have something on the front pages that isn't Brexit!

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Post by Mad for Chelsea on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 3:37 pm

Worth also pointing out that the three Tories who quit haven't actually joined The Independent Group per se, they are "sitting as independents alongside The Independent Group" as per their press release.

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Post by No name Bertie on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 3:39 pm

Since David Cameron resigned the British political system has been in Chaos.  

It was David Cameron that put the EU referendum on his manifesto pledge in the 2015 General Election.   He promised the British people he would steer Britain through the Brexit process if the people decided to leave the EU.   But he resigned and left British politics in chaos.


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Post by No name Bertie on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 3:42 pm

Mad for Chelsea wrote:Worth also pointing out that the three Tories who quit haven't actually joined The Independent Group per se, they are "sitting as independents alongside The Independent Group" as per their press release.
That's weird. Are they having difficulty with their local parties wanting to deselect them?

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 4:02 pm

Didn't think there would be an Election this year but with 3 mps going from the Tories...

Not sure this Parliament lasts till 2022...

Yougov..

Con 38
Lab 26
IG....14
Lib.. 7

A new leader would find polls like this hard to resist.


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Post by No name Bertie on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 4:17 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Didn't think there would be an Election this year but with 3 mps going from the Tories...

Not sure this Parliament lasts till 2022...

Yougov..

Con 38
Lab 26
IG....14
Lib..  7

A new leader would find polls like this hard to resist.

But this poll is meaningless because it assumes "IG" is a national party able to come up with a national party structure, a manifesto and candidates for election.  At the moment it is nothing but a few MPs wondering what to do next.

Anyway good luck to them - it is going to be a near impossible (?) job creating a new national party.  I assume they will need to build a network of local parties and support systems for local elections also.  All this is going to involve enormous sums of money - so how is it going to be financed?

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 4:34 pm

As the Lib Dems are treading water I imagine they will merge and form a new Party with this group using Lib Dem structures.....Bad news for ambitious Lib Dem mps as Umunna...Berger..Leslie and Soubry will hog the limelight but what else ??

Left wing Lib Dems may leave but new members will replace them...

New Party's big problem is keeping the momentum (Pardon the pun) going..

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Post by No name Bertie on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 4:46 pm

I personally believe the LibDems committed hara-kiri with Nick Clegg reneging on his campaign pledge to vote against any increase in tuition fees.  Instead he stabbed in the back the very people (students, parents, those sympathetic to the issue) that supported them in order to gain power at the 2010 General Election.   They had about 50 MPs in 2010 and about 8 MPs after the next general election (2015).   There is so much on-going bad blood with the Lib Dems and their natural demography that I can see the LibDems might consider dissolving and forming around this new group, if this new group develops substance (has natural leadership qualities).

ps: without the LibDems infrastructure this fledging entity (I can't call them a party at the moment) need to scavenge resources from those within other parties and go on a massive funding search.

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 4:58 pm

No name Bertie wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Didn't think there would be an Election this year but with 3 mps going from the Tories...

Not sure this Parliament lasts till 2022...

Yougov..

Con 38
Lab 26
IG....14
Lib..  7

A new leader would find polls like this hard to resist.

But this poll is meaningless because it assumes "IG" is a national party able to come up with a national party structure, a manifesto and candidates for election.  At the moment it is nothing but a few MPs wondering what to do next.

Anyway good luck to them - it is going to be a near impossible (?) job creating a new national party.  I assume they will need to build a network of local parties and support systems for local elections also.  All this is going to involve enormous sums of money - so how is it going to be financed?

Absolutely, it's a silly poll. 14% is roughly 4.5 million votes - they're not going to get that from 11 candidates! Plus, as you say, they don't have any real policies, structure, funding etc. etc.

A 'normal' YouGov poll has the Tories with an 8% lead over Labour - 41% v 33%.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 5:08 pm

Polls are guides.....After the last few days I'm sure Labour will take 33%....

Can't get much worse for them....

As for 11 candidates....When the Party gets launched members will join and they will have 600 candidates...

Won't be an Election till the summer at the earliest..

Sooner or later though they will need policies....Then it gets more awkward.

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Post by No name Bertie on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 5:12 pm

In my view there has been a real dumbing down in the reporting of British Politics - even the BBC and it has also led to the dumbing down of politicians.

So in that light this new entity could call itself the "The Not-Corbyn and Not the Bleeding Tories Alternative Party"

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 9:14 pm

JDizzle wrote:Luciana Berger out, Derek Hatton in. The Labour Party, 2019.

Already suspended. Laugh

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Post by Duty281 on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 9:19 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:When the Party gets launched members will join and they will have 600 candidates...

If that happens, they will suffer under the FPTP voting system just like the Lib Dems/UKIP/Greens and struggle to get anywhere.

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Post by JDizzle on Wed 20 Feb 2019, 10:59 pm

Duty281 wrote:
JDizzle wrote:Luciana Berger out, Derek Hatton in. The Labour Party, 2019.

Already suspended. Laugh

I mean, Labour definitely couldn’t have seen that coming... Rolling Eyes

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Post by Samo on Thu 21 Feb 2019, 10:34 am

JDizzle wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
JDizzle wrote:Luciana Berger out, Derek Hatton in. The Labour Party, 2019.

Already suspended. Laugh

I mean, Labour definitely couldn’t have seen that coming... Rolling Eyes

All we need is for them to reinstate George Galloway and kill the parties credibility once and for all.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 22 Feb 2019, 12:17 am

If you read Hatton's tweet suggesting more Jewish people should care about atrocities against Palestinians and bear in mind it was written in 2012 you may feel different..

But coming from someone that is a big fan of a new Party before it has any policies I expect nothing more..

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Fri 22 Feb 2019, 1:01 am

It's reinstating the likes of Hatton and Galloway that erodes their credibility. Nothing to do with any tweets.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Fri 22 Feb 2019, 4:17 pm

Hasn't reinstated Galloway although seeing Galloway's performance against the US Senate...

Labour could do with a powerhouse like him..

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Post by JuliusHMarx on Fri 22 Feb 2019, 4:52 pm

They could do with a powerhouse, but not like him.

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Post by Samo on Fri 22 Feb 2019, 5:22 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Hasn't reinstated Galloway although seeing Galloway's performance against the US Senate...

Labour could do with a powerhouse like him..

Which Galloway are they going to get though? The one who ripped the arse out of the US senate over the Iraq war, the one that pretended to be a cat on Big Brother or the one that put on a fake Iranian accent and lied about needing police protection while interviewing Ahmadinejad?

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Post by Duty281 on Mon 03 Jun 2019, 11:44 pm

The new Change UK party, or whatever it's called, is on the verge of disbanding after an embarrassing few months. Most of the Change MPs seem set to join the Lib Dems.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 on Tue 04 Jun 2019, 10:19 am

Think there is room for a new Centrist Party with vision and fresh ideas...

Unfortunately this ChangeUK was lazy...Had no vision and was led by Narcissistic types that thought if they just puke on the two main Parties it would lead to an influx of support..

Also took it for granted the Lib Dem brand was beyond redemption..

Need a little more than that...

The fact that some are joining the Lib Dems does kind of prove ideology comes second to opportunism..

A new Centrist Party well thought through is a mover though I think..

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Post by SecretFly on Tue 04 Jun 2019, 10:24 am

... and call them the Lib Dems.


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Post by lostinwales on Tue 04 Jun 2019, 5:52 pm

Bye bye Change. Nice while it lasted and had the potential to be a lot more.

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Post by SecretFly on Tue 04 Jun 2019, 6:10 pm

...but seriously, do not the Lib Dems cover most of the territory of a party trying to appeal to that tough balancing position called the Centre?

How many Centre parties does a Nation need? By definition the Centre is a one party ideology.

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Post by lostinwales on Tue 04 Jun 2019, 6:24 pm

SecretFly wrote:...but seriously, do not the Lib Dems cover most of the territory of a party trying to appeal to that tough balancing position called the Centre?

How many Centre parties does a Nation need? By definition the Centre is a one party ideology.

Pretty much the same at each end too - but then you get these things called personalities. And the LD's had tanked after the coalition. Both Cons and Labour putting the boot in at every opportunity didn't help.

The LD's are now undergoing a long awaited renaissance, but a lot will depend on their new leader.

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